2008 Presidential Race Part three

[Cat X]

Oh hey, we're on our third thread!

Continued from here

http://www.sw-fans.net/forum/showthread.php?t=18146

And we're up to this frankly astonishing decision for McCain to suspend his campaign and wanting to move debates.

Still havent got a clue what's going on, but it makes for great politcal theatre

[Yog]

^^ Indeed :)

Continuing my discussion with a reply to Jedieb's post:


I'm going to play Devil's Advocate here and try to speak up for McCain. There's a good possibility that this Bail Out needs McCain in Washington or it has little hope of passing. More and more Republicans are turning against this bailout and even the public is starting to turn against it. This legislation already has all the Democratic support it needs. Obama doesn't need to go and rally Democratic support, but McCain may be the only one who can get enough Republicans to get this thing passed.
I actually agree with you there. McCain is a powerful influence that could push the republicans to vote for the Bail Out.

But do you know what would have been better? If McCain announced this together with Obama, on the same press conference. That would have been a really powerful nonpartisan message to both sides of the congress. That's why Obama called him a few hours prior to organise a joint statement. But McCain sees the polls, and he needs a gamechanger. So instead, he decides to run his own show, and manipulates the media narrative. This was not about the country. It was all about McCain.

[Jedieb]

I think Yog may have given a link to this already, but early polling shows that the public wants the debate on Friday. Only around 10% of the poll I saw said it should be canceled. I think the debate will end up going on as scheduled. I think Obama should push back and argue that because we're in such a crisis, the debate should be changed from foreign policy to domestic policy.

My gawd, I just saw a clip of Palin's interview with Katie Couric. Holy cow, every time Palin gets stumped she pauses and keeps repeating the same line over and over again. Couric asked her about McCain's campaign manager and his connections of Fannie Mae and she was obviously stumped and repeated the same answer again. And there are other parts of the interview where Couric gets tough with her as well. Man, I'm actually starting to feel sorry for her.

[Cat X]

Man, I'm actually starting to feel sorry for her.

Why? She accepted the nomination. If she cant handle a reporter, she's not good enough to be a VP. Just because she is in WAAAAY over her depth doesnt make me feel sympathy :)

Our Politicans SHOULD be utterly roasted. If they cant handle it, get out. The more powerful the position, the greater the grilling should be.

[Yog]

I think Yog may have given a link to this already, but early polling shows that the public wants the debate on Friday. Only around 10% of the poll I saw said it should be canceled. I think the debate will end up going on as scheduled.
That is the really tragicomical part of all this. McCain campaign already said he won't show up on friday unless the Bail Out bill has already been voted through. Obama might have to take questions from the moderator or do Q&A with the audience or something, if he is the only one who shows up.



Man, I'm actually starting to feel sorry for her.
Yeah, I do feel bad for her. McCain put her in an impossible position by offering her the VP ticket. She clearly was not ready to handle it. But then again, she accepted without blinking (her words), so she can only blame herself.

[Daiquiri]

I dont see what the big deal is in suspending the debate. Nothing new ever really comes out in these things and its basically mental 'manimal' posturing. Most people have already decided who theyre going to vote for, debate or not.

I might have missed it earlier but may I ask for the proof that it was Obama's idea first?

[Cat X]

McCain didnt offer her the VP, it's clear now she was forced onto McCain. He wanted Lieberman. The party said no and forced Palin onto him. And she said yes so tough luck for her.

(Yes I know CMJ is having dirty thoughts about Palin being forced onto him.....)

Which frankly leads me to ponder.... what if McCain is now deliberatly making the Republicans unelectable for a decade out of revenge for what they did to him in 2000 and now?

Cause like man, I cant see ANY other rational explaination now.

[Yog]

I dont see what the big deal is in suspending the debate. Nothing new ever really comes out in these things and its basically mental 'manimal' posturing. Most people have already decided who theyre going to vote for, debate or not.
While it's true that very little new comes out of debates in terms of political platform, it remains the primary method to learn about the candidates for a lot of people, not only in terms of issues, but also on the candidates personality and how prepared they are to be President. If the participant of a debate can't explain his own policies in a well defined rational manner, shows lack of understanding for how the world works, is uncertain about his own positions and policies, and does not inspire confidence... those are all signs one should not be President.



I might have missed it earlier but may I ask for the proof that it was Obama's idea first?
Before McCain made his press release, Obama called McCain, suggesting a bipartisan effort / joint statement. Senator Tom Coburn was the originator of the proposal, actually. The cancelling of the debate and suspending the campaign was McCains "idea" though, if you are referring to that.

Here is the beef, Obama calls McCain about a bipartisan effort to solve differences on the Bailout issue, and to do a joint statement. Shortly after that, McCain appears on TV, saying he is suspending his campaign and that the debate would not happen on Friday. Doing this, McCain makes it seem this was his initiative, and puts Obama on the sideline. Not very bipartisan, if you ask me. McCain saw the opportunity to score some political points, and went ahead without Obama.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/24/suspend.timeline/?iref=hpmostpop


(CNN) -- Shortly after Sen. John McCain announced on Wednesday the suspension of his campaign to tackle the economic recovery plan in Congress, his opponent questioned the timing of his decision.

Sen. Barack Obama said he called McCain about 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, "after determining that many of the principles that I had set forth were ones that Sen. McCain adopted as well in terms of how this financial proposal should be structured."

Democratic presidential nominee Obama said Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Oklahoma, came up with the idea of issuing a joint statement agreeing on some "broad principles" that he and McCain shared on resolving differences in the rescue plan.

McCain campaign spokesman Brian Rogers said the Republican senator did not take Obama's call but rather called him back later in the day.

Obama said, "[McCain] called me back at about 2:30 this afternoon after our rally, and I asked him to join me in issuing a joint statement to let this Congress and this administration know where we stand and what we expect from this proposal, because of the past few days, it's been clear that we have come to agree on some broad principles."

Obama added that McCain agreed to the suggestion of issuing a joint statement.

McCain, according Rogers, suggested that the two presidential candidates have a meeting in Washington "to lead a bipartisan effort to solve this problem" and that they both suspend their campaigns and hold off on Friday's presidential debate.

Obama said his intent was focused on issuing a joint statement first.

But shortly after the call ended, Obama said, his rival appeared on television announcing the suspension and the subsequent debate no-show.

"I think the only possible miscommunication that might have been how quickly there was an announcement and someone was on television. I think my assumption was that the joint statement would go out initially," Obama said.

But McCain, appearing live on "The CBS Evening News with Katie Couric," challenged Obama's claims that he supported a joint statement.

"This is not the time for statements. ... I think the American people expect more of us. And I would hope that we would respond that way," he said.

"We discussed that we do agree, and I'd be glad to -- to join in a common press release or statement, but now is not the time for statements. Time is now to act," he added.

Asked about political motivation in the news conference, Obama said to check with the other guy.

One Democratic senator wasn't as diplomatic answering the question.

"This was seeking political one-upmanship, and it's going to fail," Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-New York, said Wednesday night.

South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham defended his party's candidate:

"I am proud of my candidate, who wants to suspend the campaign, come back and work with congressional leaders to solve a problem that, if not solved, will lead to a financial meltdown in this country."
Obama added that the conversation was "cordial" and that the two agreed that this was a "very important issue we had to deal with."

[Jaime Tomahawk]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41F_oof_gu0

While McCain stumbles and Palin dodges, Obama answers questions.

Now I've done a bit of looking around and thinking, the whole bailout thing is exactly the kind of stuff that needs to be debated. McCain saying he will pull out of the debates was blatant politics and I think will backfire badly. And really, if it was so important, why not let Palin campaign in his place?

Oh that's right, she's hopeless.

So I think Mccain blundered and Obama handled it pretty well.

The thing I really wanted to comment on is that the bailout is an unfortunate necessity. Credit is badly needed in the markets and this is what's causing the big problems. As I see it, the bailouts buy assets which eventually will be sold off and hte cash returned to the Treasury. It's not that bad a plan and for once GWB is right - to do nothing WILL result in a financial meltdown that will have a staggering effect on the US and world economy.

Do you like eating food? Then you want to do this bailout is the kind of crash you could have. Yes, that really is how bad things have gotten. However, dont expect this to solve anything, it is in fact a cushion to slow the crash down and to have a soft landing, thence the effects will not be as severe or the downturn as bad.

So far, the Feds have pretty much taken over failed companies on their own terms and gotten some quite good quality assets to liquidate. AIG was the Feds utterly screwing the shareholders over and gaining plenty of cash producing assets. AIG wasnt drowning in debt, it had credit flow issues. Big difference.

As such, 700 Billion buys a lot of assets for later recovery.

But the first draft as Jedieb pointed out was horrific. It was written by a Paultard, with bad inflationary side effects and ridiculous lack of oversight. The new bipartisan proposal does look better, there's oversight for one and provision for home owners.

The other thing that stuck me was watching GWB address the nation. This is one very worried man, even a scared one. I suppose all he wants to do is just leave and get to Crawford and to have his crisis on his last days.... well it was his administration's fault but still, he looks like a man who seriously wishes his time was up. But to see real fear in his eyes..... hell that tells me that this crap is seriously bad. Something has gotten through to him that we really are in trouble the world over and he needs to do something fast.

Third, the fact that he called both Mccain and Obama to the White House to get a bill through..... I think for once he did the right thing. He's actually handling this one pretty well in bringing them in.. well it's appropriate given one of McCain or Obama will have his job and will need to handle this task. He has to transfer responsibilty properly and having the candidates there is a good step in doing that. The candidates must have a hand in coming up with a solution, given they are going to be managing it.

To be honest here, McCain in all likelihood lost the election this week. Obama now has the chance to really look like he can handle a crisis - in a lot of ways both candiates MUST be Presidents NOW. So the one who acts like a President in the eyes of the public has this one in the bag. McCain looks like he's made a bad call. Obama looks unflustered, calm and ready to go.

This is looking more like the last Australian Election where three weeks to go, a bit of economic bad news hit the Howard Govt and that was it, they lost it right there and there was no hope in recovery. Actually they were always going to face an electorate waiting for them with cricket bats out and ready to beat them up but that sealed their fate. This might do the same for the Republicans. Baseball bats I think are being readied.

How the hell can McCain win from here? I dont see it.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Double posting this rather this bit of news

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSPEK16693720080925

China stopping credit to USA based banks.

So this says China thinks BANKS are a bad risk. And they KNOW other banks will fail.

This is a rather big problem for the USA to say the least

[Yog]

Some details on the general principals in the joint statement, that McCain rejected:


The Obama campaign proposed the following five points...joint principles, along with a joint statement.

The McCain campaign did not want to include them, and so the statement was sent out without these bullet points:

First, there must be oversight. We should not hand over a blank check to the discretion of one man. We support an independent, bipartisan board to ensure accountability and complete transparency.

Second, we need to protect taxpayers. There should be a path for taxpayers to recover their money, and to turn a profit if Wall Street prospers.

Third, no Wall Street executive should profit from taxpayer dollars. This plan cannot be a welfare program for CEOs whose greed and irresponsibility has contributed to this crisis.

Fourth, we must help families who are struggling to stay in their homes. We cannot bail out Wall Street without helping millions of families facing foreclosure on Main Street.

Fifth, we both agree that this financial rescue package should move on its own without any earmarks or other measures. We have different views about the need for other action, but this must be a clean bill.
This is a time to rise above politics for the good of the country. We cannot risk an economic catastrophe. This is not a Democratic problem or a Republican problem - this is an American problem. Now, we must find an American solution.

... also, from the sound of things, the bailout bill could come sooner rather than later. This increases the likelyhood the whole thing will be resolved before Friday night, so I think chances are a debate could happen:

Sen Frank says Democrats agree on bailout bill (http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE48N91R20080925)


"All of sudden, now that we are on the verge of making a deal, John McCain here drops himself in to help us make a deal, Frank said. "I really worry about the politicalization."

The Massachusetts Democrat noted that a meeting on Capitol Hill on Thursday will be interrupted for a "photo op" at the White House with congressional Democrats and Republicans as well as Bush.

"We trying to rescue the economy, not the McCain campaign," Frank said.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

... also, from the sound of things, the bailout bill could come sooner rather than later. This increases the likelyhood the whole thing will be resolved before Friday night, so I think chances are a debate could happen:




There's going to be a debate. Wether McCain is there or wether Obama is arguing with an empty lectern, it'll still happen.

[Jedieb]

I dont see what the big deal is in suspending the debate. Nothing new ever really comes out in these things and its basically mental 'manimal' posturing. Most people have already decided who theyre going to vote for, debate or not.

Presidential debates help define elections. They're incredibly important. They help form the narrative of an election. Kennedy looked great, Nixon looked like he was sweating to death. Reagan proved he wasn't a clueless ideologue and held his own against Carter, Gore made the blunder of sighing like a condsceding professor and Bush hoodwinked millions of Americans into thinking he was actually competent. DEBATES MATTER. But the kicker is that the McCain camp has been talking about pushing back this first debate to Oct. 2 and thereby postponing the VP debate. That's not going to pass the stink test. Especially if the Couric/Palin interview starts to hit the airwaves. If she struggles yet again in another Fox Free interview then it's going to look like McCain is trying to hide her.

But again, you have to hand it to McCain. He was starting to see it slip away and he grabbed the election by the throat. We don't know yet how this gambit will be remembered, it could blow up in his face. But now Obama has to react to what he's doing. McCain desperately needed to change the trajectory of the race and try to win some news cycles. And Bush really helped him out by asking for the meeting of Congressional leaders. Now Obama HAS to go to Washington.

Mark my words, McCain will try to take credit for the final form of this bill. The grunt work has already been done, they're just pushing and pulling on the final pieces. Both Obama and McCain have had little to do with the actual legislation. (Although I think Obama has done a good job of talking to Paulson and Congress as the work has been done. He's also mirrored many of the changes that Dems & Reps have proposed to Paulson's original 3 page summary.) Dodd and others have done most of the real work. Neither one of these guys can do anything but say they agree or disagree with the bill and then just cast their vote.

I can't wait for today's and Friday's numbers to start coming in. I don't think that Obama could have gone much higher than he already was, but I just don't know how voters are going to react to McCain's stunt.

[Jedi Master Carr]

From what it sounds like the bill was in no danger anyway and this is all political posturing.

[Yog]

From what it sounds like the bill was in no danger anyway and this is all political posturing.
You can say that again.

The frontpage at Talking Points Memo (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/) is a particularly entertaining read right now. McCain has campaign heads on TV, running ads in battleground states, among other things, while supposedly having the campaign "suspended". Also, McCain admits he never read the 3 page Paulson plan. Some rescuer of the economy...

[Jedieb]

It looks like the deal is done. The only thing left for both Houses is the official vote. Wow, that McCain is a fast worker!

If this bill does get passed as early as today, or tomorrow, then I think McCain's "suspension" will end up looking like a stunt. Aside from twisting the arms of some congressional republicans, what is he going to say he did? And will undecideds really believe the deal got done because he dropped everything? I can't see how he can still not show up for Friday's debate. I also think that the last two weeks gaurantee that some economic issues are going to get squeezed into Friday night's debate. That should be an advantage for Obama.

[Yog]

Sarah Palin on her foreign policy credentials. (http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/25/palin-on-her-foreign-policy-credentials.aspx)
I am speechless. :x

[Jedieb]

It looks like a group of House Republicans are trying to torpedo the deal. The question is whether or not they have enough votes to get this passed. And now the question is what does McCain do? He obviously is having trouble getting Republicans on board. I've heard of angry voters flooding their representatives with phone calls and e-mails opposing the bail out. Many representatives think a vote for this bill could be political suicide. I'm just not sure where the bill stands right now. It could be dead or there may be more than enough votes to get it past. Who knows.

[Jedieb]

Sarah Palin on her foreign policy credentials. (http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/25/palin-on-her-foreign-policy-credentials.aspx)
I am speechless. :x

Holy crap in a hat, that was just .... So basically, she's the first line of defense against invading Russian hordes? Republicans who fawn over her should be ashamed of themselves.

[Figrin D'an]

Sarah Palin on her foreign policy credentials. (http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/25/palin-on-her-foreign-policy-credentials.aspx)
I am speechless. :x


I loled.

And I think I'm going to cry if she actually ends up as our next VP.

It's no wonder she's been in what amounts to lockdown away from most media for so long. Even in a highly planned and strictly controlled interview such as that one, she stumbles.

She's going to get destroyed in the VP debate.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Sarah Palin on her foreign policy credentials. (http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/25/palin-on-her-foreign-policy-credentials.aspx)
I am speechless. :x

Uuuhhhhhh........

That was Tiny Fey, wasnt it? That could not have been real.


I loled.

And I think I'm going to cry if she actually ends up as our next VP.


Think about the sheer amount of terror us overseas have that she could have possession of the launch codes. And that's not a joke either. She scares the bejeezes out of us and make us look at Bush with fond longing.

[Yog]

It continues!!

Bailout is about healthcare! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npUMUASwaec)
Can someone explain to me what she is trying to say? Because she is confusing the heck out of me. O_o

[Jedi Master Carr]

I can't believe she can really make that comparison. Yeah and the governor of Texas has foreign policy experience with Mexico. About the debate, I don't think Biden even has to attack her. She is like Dan Quayle spouts out stupid stuff with no help.

[Figrin D'an]

It continues!!

Bailout is about healthcare! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npUMUASwaec)
Can someone explain to me what she is trying to say? Because she is confusing the heck out of me. O_o


Couric's comment previous to the interview clip was completely correct... when Palin isn't sure how to respond, she defaults to her generalized talking points. She doesn't understand the purpose of the bailout and what it will do in terms of economic correction, so she tried to deflect the issue to the more generalized mission statement of the McCain campaign. We all know that experienced and skilled politicians do this all the time, but they can generally do it with much more tact and at least create an illusion of relevance as they transition from one topic to another. Palin apparently has no ability to do this.

What's scary is, she has undoubtedly been coached incessantly since she accepted the VP spot on the GOP ticket. If this is the best that they've been able to get out of her to this point... yikes.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

It continues!!

Bailout is about healthcare! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npUMUASwaec)
Can someone explain to me what she is trying to say? Because she is confusing the heck out of me. O_o


Uhhhhhhhh......................

Sorry man, I'm drawing a blank here too.


What's scary is, she has undoubtedly been coached incessantly since she accepted the VP spot on the GOP ticket. If this is the best that they've been able to get out of her to this point... yikes.

SURELY even the Religious Right can now see this woman should be nowhere near power....?

[Jedieb]

Looks like they're deadlocked in Washington right now. I don't think they're going to be able to get this done before tomorrow's debate so the million dollar question becomes; "Will McCain attend the debate?" Obama is going, of that I have little doubt. He'll get a one on one with Leher or a town hall meeting all by himself. McCain would be stupid to let him have the spotlight to himself. Yet, if he goes, then he looks foolish for going back on his pledge to not attend the debate because of the "serious" work that needs to be done in D.C.

And speaking of that serious work, it's getting more and more apparent that NEITHER McCain or Obama have much to do with the nuts and bolts of this bill. It's the committees and chairmans of the majority and minority parties that having been doing the heavy lifting. Even if McCain weren't running for President he wouldn't be a major player in this. And the animosity he has with House Republicans would make him useless to build a coalition. All he's done by suspending his campaign IMO is drag presidential politics into the bailout and actually make it more difficult to get this deal done. If this thing completely breaks down McCain may end up taking part of the blame. I don't see how anyone can put this on Obama.

[Yog]

Speaking of the deadlock, what do you think about this clown going on TV earlier today saying McCain solved the crisis? McCain Taking Credit for Helping with the Bailout (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-i0OHAzID8). That's McCain spokeperson Tucker Bounds btw.

From what I hear though, McCain has not added anything constructive to the process. In fact, there is even some murmuring that McCain may be stalling the negotiations (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5884701&page=1). I think both Obama and McCain would do well to keep a low profile, otherwise the Bailout talks get an extra layer of tension.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

So while McCain postures..

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/business/26wamu.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

WaMu fails.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The stock market is going to take a beating tomorrow.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

The bet is on! Will the stock market tank?

> 5% I become a Palin supporter for 24 hrs

< 5% Yogurt does.

Either way, everyone else loses :-p

[Yog]

I think you got those brackets the wrong way. You need minimum 5% drop on Wall Street to win. :p

That is a horrifying punishment though.. *shudders at the possibilities*

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Ah dang, I was never good at those things :)

By my calculations I need a drop of approx 550 points on the Dow Jones. Futures indicate a drop of 200 at the opening bell. I think I'll lose (Oh Lord I *HOPE* I lose!) but it could be a lot of damage tonight either way. WaMu lead every bulletin here and got 11/9 kinda wall to wall coverage. I *think* that by itself is an onimous sign of a big shoe is about to drop if the press are onto it like this.

See ya all in 8 hours - wonder if my stocks will still be above 50% loss for the year?

[Jedieb]

I've been having some second thoughts about the bailout. I'm starting to hear more and more people who are coming out against it and some of what they say makes sense. I blame my indecision partly on the fact that economics was never my strong suit. I hated taking macro and micro economics in college and barely survived both courses. Another thing that has me worried is that after this is a 'crisis' that is being brought to you by Dubya. And we know just how real some of his previous crisises have been. I had enough experience and familiarity with Iraq and Kuwait that when Bush first uttered Iraq after 9-11 I knew it was a mistake. I KNEW Saddam had little to no ties to Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden. I was sure as hell that there were more Saudi fingerprints on 9-11 than any Iraq ones. That was an easy call for me, but I don't have that background for this financial meltdown.

I do think that AIG needs to be bailed out because of all the companies it's connected to. But I think everyone else should be left to fail. WaMu failed last night and it was simply gobbled up by another bank. I don't think Detroit should be getting any 'loans' as well. It may be time for the Big Three to become the Big Two. Maybe they'll finally start making some decent cars. Or at least cars that consistently outperform and outsell foreign cars.

Maybe I'm being paronoid, but when I realize that I'm actually agreeing with Bush that there's a crisis and siding with him about the remedy I start to doubt myself.

[Jedieb]

Oh crap in a hat, the House Republicans are refusing to take part in this morning's negotiations. Apparently, Bush and McCain are incapable of getting them in line. Of course, if you're really paranoid, this is all a big stunt. At the last minute, a few House Republicans will come on board and the bill will pass. And who will be the savior that convinced to come on board? John McCain. Am I nuts? Probably.

[Yog]

McCain will be leaving for debate shortly.
Phew.. I am so glad this crisis is over and the economy is back to normal.

.. and here comes the spin:


Statement By McCain Campaign On Negotiations John McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign was made in the hopes that politics could be set aside to address our economic crisis.

In response, Americans saw a familiar spectacle in Washington. At a moment of crisis that threatened the economic security of American families, Washington played the blame game rather than work together to find a solution that would avert a collapse of financial markets without squandering hundreds of billions of taxpayers’ money to bailout bankers and brokers who bet their fortunes on unsafe lending practices.

Both parties in both houses of Congress and the administration needed to come together to find a solution that would deserve the trust of the American people. And while there were attempts to do that, much of yesterday was spent fighting over who would get the credit for a deal and who would get the blame for failure. There was no deal or offer yesterday that had a majority of support in Congress. There was no deal yesterday that included adequate protections for the taxpayers. It is not enough to cut deals behind closed doors and then try to force it on the rest of Congress -- especially when it amounts to thousands of dollars for every American family.

The difference between Barack Obama and John McCain was apparent during the White House meeting yesterday where Barack Obama’s priority was political posturing in his opening monologue defending the package as it stands. John McCain listened to all sides so he could help focus the debate on finding a bipartisan resolution that is in the interest of taxpayers and homeowners. The Democratic interests stood together in opposition to an agreement that would accommodate additional taxpayer protections.

Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.

[Yog]

In case you did not catch my irony above, the bailout talks are far from resolved. In fact, this will probably take all weekend.


Time to update with some polls. Some key numbers:

Rasmussen 09/26
Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)
Obama 50-45 McCain

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is Obama’s biggest lead since his convention bounce peaked with a six-point advantage. In fact, on only two days since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June has Obama enjoyed a lead bigger than he has today (see trends).

Rasmussen, Virginia (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election) Obama 50 - 45 McCain
Rasmussen, North Carolina: Obama +3
Rasmussen Electoral count: Obama 308 - 230 McCain

Obama wins: Indiana, NC, VA, NM, CO
Mccain wins: Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida.

It's worth noting Rasmussen had consistant low results for Obama until this point.

---

Daily Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110749/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-45.aspx) 09/26
Obama 48%, McCain 45%

--

Diageo / Hotline 09/26
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll will show Sen. Barack Obama opening up a seven point lead over Sen. John McCain, 49% to 42%. Key finding: On the economy, Obama has a 48% to 34% advantage over McCain.

--

Some battlegound numbers
TIME/CNN BATTLEGROUND NUMBERS (http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/24/timecnn-battleground-numbers/) (09/24)
Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 47
Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 46
Montana: McCain 54, Obama 43
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 44
West Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46

Obama moving into electoral lead (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13876.html) (09/24)

Opinion Research polls for Time magazine and CNN released Wednesday showed:

— Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45 among registered voters. In late August, McCain had been ahead, 49 to 44. Among likely voters, Obama led in the new poll by 51 to 47.

— Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 44 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 51 to 46.

— Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 43 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 53 to 44.

In summary, the campaigns agree that since the conventions:

Obama has gained in Florida, Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Indiana and New Mexico.

McCain gained in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Alaska and North Dakota.

Both campaigns claim gains in Iowa.

Ohio remains a toss-up —perhaps the decisive prize. Nevada and New Hampshire are too close to call.



SurveyUSA, Pennsylvania (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cc4913d9-4718-4b45-99dd-925de096e744%2012:20%20PM) (23-24 sept)
Obama +6, 50-44.


Selzer, Michigan (http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080925/NEWS15/80925082) (september 25)
+13 Obama


A week of economic crisis in Washington and on Wall Street has been very, very good for Barack Obama – at least in Michigan.

The Detroit Free Press/Local 4 Michigan Poll shows the Democratic senator from Illinois with a commanding lead of 13 points over Republican John McCain in the presidential race. Obama’s lead of 51% to 38% in the poll is nearly double the edge he had a month ago in a Michigan Poll taken just before the Democratic convention in Denver.

The poll showed momentum swinging clearly to Obama in almost every demographic. Among women, his lead is now 54%-35% -- eight points better than it was a month ago, before the Democratic and Republican national conventions and McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. Among independents, Obama enjoys a 14-point lead.

As for what’s driving it – it’s the economy.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Mccain shows how real he was about that threat. I don't know what will happen with the Bailout, I got CNN on now and some economists is talking about trouble if it the Bailout doesn't happen. Really what we need is more regulation but that won't happen unless Obama gets in. And oh Yog nice polls, things are looking good now I hope Obama can do really well tonight.

[Yog]

And oh Yog nice polls, things are looking good now I hope Obama can do really well tonight.
Ah, but according to this McCain Internet ad in the Wall Street Journal, we already know the result of tonights debate:

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/mccain-wins-debate.jpg

McCain not only knows how to rescue the economy. Not only did he invent the Blackberry (http://www.demconwatchblog.com/2008/09/john-mccain-created-blackberry.html). He also invented the time machine (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/mccain_wins_debate.html)! :lol

[Jedieb]

I saw that statement earlier. (Yog's release of the McCain statement that he's attending the debate.) Funny how it doesn't mention that it was the House Republicans that brought the deal to a halt, isn't it?

I think it's pretty clear how each side is going to spin this. Once the bill is done Democrats will say it took alot of hard work by both sides, but McCain had little to no influence. In fact, it would have been easier and faster if McCain hadn't of come in and dragged presidential politics into it. They'll point to the actions of House Republicans and even McCain himself as to why the bill took so long to pass.

Republicans will say Obama did nothing but play politics while McCain was hard at work trying to save the economy. If not for his timely intervention the bill might not have been saved.

These scenarios bring me to what I think are the most important poll numbers out there;

41% Obama, 39% McCain, 20%Whatever

The last time I saw poll numbers showing how many voters were locked into candidates, those are the ones I saw. I think that's a pretty accurate reflection of where the race stands. 20% of the electorate could go either way in these last 40 days. Right now, with leaners Obama consistently comes up with a lead of close to 4 points, but that lead could dissappear with a bad debate or an October surprise or yet another McCain Hail Mary.

The Debate
It looks like it's on. I actually think Obama is at a slight disadvantage because right now a majority of viewers believe he'll win. And when you don't match expectations you fail. I always thought a push would equal a win for him tonight, but because he's got momentum and high expectations he may need to score some major points tonight to keep that momentum.

Hail Mary II
Today's polls show that so far McCain's second stunt isn't paying off. Obama's RCP average is now up to 4. And if it wasn't for the consistently contrarian Battleground poll it would be up to 5. By Monday & Tuesday the polls will fully reflect both the Hail Mary and the first debate. We'll just what the 20% thought of the last few days.

[Jedieb]

And oh Yog nice polls, things are looking good now I hope Obama can do really well tonight.
Ah, but according to this McCain Internet ad in the Wall Street Journal, we already know the result of tonights debate:

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/mccain-wins-debate.jpg

McCain not only knows how to rescue the economy. Not only did he invent the Blackberry (http://www.demconwatchblog.com/2008/09/john-mccain-created-blackberry.html). He also invented the time machine (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/mccain_wins_debate.html)! :lol

Charlie Foxtrot! If you know your military jargon, you know what that means. I thought McCain had a couple of bad days last week, but this week might even be worse. By attending the debate after saying he wouldn't unless a deal was done he looks foolish. It was obviously an empty threat. During the last couple of weeks Obama has done a far better job of keeping his cool. McCain was simply all over the place. And that early ad, is just an example of a campaign that's tripping over itself. I just can't believe that anyone working for him could be stupid enough to let that leak out BEFORE the debate. He's just given Democratic surrogates another talking point. If Obama hits a home run tonight he could find himself zooming past the 50% RCP average. And if it gets that high, McCain will be in serious trouble.

[Yog]

It's not only the debate though, the whole "suspending the campaign" was a charade. The only thing I seen McCain suspend was his visit on Late Show at CBS because he had to race to Washington "to stop the economy from cratering". He literary made a phone call to cancel his appearance a few minutes before the show was going to air. While David Letterman had an emty chair, McCain sneaked off to a different interview at the same channel. The only thing that achieved was aggrevating Letterman. McCain did not make it to Washington until the next day anyway..

Letterman was really worth watching both Wednesday and Thursday night for his reaction of being dumped. For those who missed out, you can find video highlights at CBS website:
http://lateshow.cbs.com/latenight/lateshow/dave_tv/highlights/index/php/bigshowhighlight.phtml

Day 2 comment:

That's what I feel like, I feel like an ugly date. I feel used. I feel cheap. I feel sullied.

[Jedieb]

From Slate:


Slate predicts McCain's next 10 Hail Mary stunts.
1. Returns to Vietnam and jails himself.
2. Offers the post of "vice vice president" to Warren Buffett.
3. Challenges Obama to suspend campaign so they both can go and personally drill for oil offshore.
4. Learns to use computer.
5. Does bombing run over Taliban-controlled tribal areas of Pakistan.
6. Offers to forgo salary, sell one house.
7. Sex-change operation.
8. Suspends campaign until Nov. 4, offers to start being president right now.
9. Sells Alaska to Russia for $700 billion.
10. Pledges to serve only one term. OK, half a term.

[Yog]

Since we're in the funny corner.. :)

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/binocular.jpg

(courtesy of Marcus)

[Yog]

Oh man, Huffington Post (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/politics/) is on fire today. This stuff is gold..

Administration Official: Bailout Likely, McCain Lost PR Battle (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/administration-official-b_n_129664.html)

Concerned that the public relations battle had turned against their favor, John McCain and the group of conservatives who opposed the outlines of the compromise financial bailout package will likely back away from their recalcitrance, an official close to the Administration tells the Huffington Post.

The Republican source, with direct knowledge of the negotiations, said that GOPers and McCain were "scared about the press perception" that they were at fault for "blowing the thing up." The takeover of Washington Mutual on Thursday combined with the continued downturn in the futures and credit markets "also scared them," to the point that a bailout deal seemed within the realm of possibility "over the weekend."

The official's tone - more optimistic than that of key figures just last night - signals an end may be in sight on a bailout negotiations. McCain has generally avoided taking a stance on the set of compromise principles agreed to by the administration, Democrats and many Republicans in Congress. But talks stalled during a White House meeting last night, in large part, sources say, because of a power struggle within the House Republican caucus.

McCain had left the campaign trail mid-week with a promise to force a consensus. But it seems, at this point, that he will have done relatively little during the negotiations - save for possibly killing the earlier arrangement and providing an opening for the opposition.

"I do think that John McCain was very helpful in what he did. I saw him this morning, we've been talking with his staff," House Republican Whip Roy Blunt told Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC. "Clearly, yesterday, his position in that discussion yesterday [at the White House] was one that stopped a deal from finalizing that no House Republican, in my view, would've been for."

According to one Democratic aide familiar with the negotiations, House GOP leadership was hoping to save face with more conservative members on Friday by forcing consideration (at the very least) of some of the alternative proposals - primarily, having the government sell insurance to companies that buy mortgage-backed securities. The leadership would then turn around and praise McCain for greasing the wheels on this front. But the course is problematic. McCain has left town. And during the White House meeting on Thursday night, Barack Obama reportedly brought up discussion of the conservative counterproposal only to have Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson declare it wouldn't work.



... also this little story of McCain camp realising what we all knew:
Report: McCain Aides Complain That Palin Is "Clueless" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/report-mccain-aides-compl_n_129618.html)

Radio talk show host Ed Schultz reports:
Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin. The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."

On Friday, conservative columnist Kathleen Parker said that after seeing Palin in interviews, she thinks the vice presidential nominee should drop out.

[Yog]

A reminder, the debate starts in 50 minutes, at 9 pm ET.

The debate will be aired live by ABC, NBC, CBS, C-SPAN, CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, and PBS (most affiliates; check local listings). If you don't have access to american TV networks, check the websites for the networks mentioned. It will be streamed all over the Internet.

MSNBC.com will have a stream, and I will be watching that.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

... also this little story of McCain camp realising what we all knew:
Report: McCain Aides Complain That Palin Is "Clueless" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/report-mccain-aides-compl_n_129618.html)

Radio talk show host Ed Schultz reports:
Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin. The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."

On Friday, conservative columnist Kathleen Parker said that after seeing Palin in interviews, she thinks the vice presidential nominee should drop out.

Look, I wish the press would lay off Palin. She is a gorgeous woman, intelligent and God fearing who would make an excellent candidate. Just because her views on foreign policy are a bit confusing doesn't mean she isnt knowledgeable. She quite clearly knows where Russia is and she also has Canada, which I remind you is still a foreign country on the other side. She's a very quick study, and with her intelligence I am sure she will quickly grasp any political realities she needs to, like the amazing way she has come to the fore of the mcCain campaign. Her palce in the ticket is completely deserved and has nothing to do with her religious allies that are too smart to fall for Democrat trickery again. Her beign a pander is a blatant lie by Dumocrats who are fearful of a strong woman, liek the woman they rejected for a man who I have no doubt has Muslim ties. And I reject that voting against Osama has anything to do with racsim that is claimed to endemic in the Republican support base. Those dirty racists the KKK are supporting Osama after all.

[Yog]

^^ Someone lost a bet :D

[Jaime Tomahawk]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/sarah-palins-beauty-pagea_n_129667.html

I mean, look at this woman! Look at her grace and beauty under pressure! Isnt she exactly the kind of person you want to be Vice President? I'm voting for Sarah, that's for sure because she represents all the values of Middle America and she is exactly the kind of person I could go eating mooseburgers with. I bet she can drink real beer too, not those fancy latte's that Osama has. She's one of us I tell you and she has the experience we need!

[Yog]

I mean, look at this woman! Look at her grace and beauty under pressure!

She sure looks good in her swimsuit. No denying that! :)


Edit: 12 minutes countdown to debate!

[Rutabaga]

... also this little story of McCain camp realising what we all knew:
Report: McCain Aides Complain That Palin Is "Clueless" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/report-mccain-aides-compl_n_129618.html)

Radio talk show host Ed Schultz reports:
Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin. The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."

On Friday, conservative columnist Kathleen Parker said that after seeing Palin in interviews, she thinks the vice presidential nominee should drop out.

Just another drive-by post, because this is too good not to share.

Here is all of Kathleen Parker's article. When a columnist from the ultra-right wing National Review prints something like this, you know things simply are not going well.


Palin Problem
She’s out of her league.

By Kathleen Parker

If at one time women were considered heretical for swimming upstream against feminist orthodoxy, they now face condemnation for swimming downstream — away from Sarah Palin.

To express reservations about her qualifications to be vice president — and possibly president — is to risk being labeled anti-woman.

Or, as I am guilty of charging her early critics, supporting only a certain kind of woman.

Some of the passionately feminist critics of Palin who attacked her personally deserved some of the backlash they received. But circumstances have changed since Palin was introduced as just a hockey mom with lipstick — what a difference a financial crisis makes — and a more complicated picture has emerged.

As we’ve seen and heard more from John McCain’s running mate, it is increasingly clear that Palin is a problem. Quick study or not, she doesn’t know enough about economics and foreign policy to make Americans comfortable with a President Palin should conditions warrant her promotion.

Yes, she recently met and turned several heads of state as the United Nations General Assembly convened in New York. She was gracious, charming and disarming. Men swooned. Pakistan’s president wanted to hug her. (Perhaps Osama bin Laden is dying to meet her?)

And, yes, she has common sense, something we value. And she’s had executive experience as a mayor and a governor, though of relatively small constituencies (about 6,000 and 680,000, respectively).

Finally, Palin’s narrative is fun, inspiring and all-American in that frontier way we seem to admire. When Palin first emerged as John McCain’s running mate, I confess I was delighted. She was the antithesis and nemesis of the hirsute, Birkenstock-wearing sisterhood — a refreshing feminist of a different order who personified the modern successful working mother.

Palin didn’t make a mess cracking the glass ceiling. She simply glided through it.

It was fun while it lasted.

Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League.

No one hates saying that more than I do. Like so many women, I’ve been pulling for Palin, wishing her the best, hoping she will perform brilliantly. I’ve also noticed that I watch her interviews with the held breath of an anxious parent, my finger poised over the mute button in case it gets too painful. Unfortunately, it often does. My cringe reflex is exhausted.

Palin filibusters. She repeats words, filling space with deadwood. Cut the verbiage and there’s not much content there. Here’s but one example of many from her interview with Hannity: “Well, there is a danger in allowing some obsessive partisanship to get into the issue that we’re talking about today. And that’s something that John McCain, too, his track record, proving that he can work both sides of the aisle, he can surpass the partisanship that must be surpassed to deal with an issue like this.”

When Couric pointed to polls showing that the financial crisis had boosted Obama’s numbers, Palin blustered wordily: “I’m not looking at poll numbers. What I think Americans at the end of the day are going to be able to go back and look at track records and see who’s more apt to be talking about solutions and wishing for and hoping for solutions for some opportunity to change, and who’s actually done it?”

If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself.

If Palin were a man, we’d all be guffawing, just as we do every time Joe Biden tickles the back of his throat with his toes. But because she’s a woman — and the first ever on a Republican presidential ticket — we are reluctant to say what is painfully true.

What to do?

McCain can’t repudiate his choice for running mate. He not only risks the wrath of the GOP’s unforgiving base, but he invites others to second-guess his executive decision-making ability. Barack Obama faces the same problem with Biden.

Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

Do it for your country.

[Yog]

Debate starts now!

Live feeds:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553

http://edition.cnn.com/video/
(click live video)

[MissJess]

Look, I wish the press would lay off Palin. She is a gorgeous woman, intelligent and God fearing who would make an excellent candidate.

You also said that she looks fantastic for a woman that has had 5 kids! :o

[Rossos Atrapes]

What are the lessons of Iraq?

Neither of them said what I wanted to hear: One cannot spread democracy from the barrel of a gun.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Obama said it was wrong to go which is close enough for me.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Most are calling it a draw. Although some are saying Obama did a great job on foreign policy. I think he did a great job there. He could have done a better job on the economy. Both struggled there though. I did like the body language. Obama seemed more friendly to Mccain and Mccain got angry and snarky.

[Yog]

McCain:
Terrible body language. Blinks and shrugs. Gets agitated / upset easily. He was tough though, and on the offensive. His arguments will not stand up to fact checks.

Obama:
Kept cool throughout the debate. Looked knowledgable and Presidential. My main issue is, he should attack more and call McCain out on obvious lies.

In conclusion, if this debate was the one where McCain was supposed to have an advantage (foreign policy), then Obama did just fine.


CNN had a graph that showed reactions from republicans, democrats and indpendent aligned. Obama consistantly tracked better than McCain, especially among independent.

[Jedieb]

No clear winner. The McCain camp already has a commercial ready with all of Obama's "you're right John". We'll see which side spins it better, but I don't get a sense of a clear winner or loser after tonight. McCain was solid, and I think Obama proved that he was quite knowledgeable on foreign policy. He certainly didn't come across as a clueless governor from the frozen tundra. My gawd, can you imagine Palin matching either of these guys tonight? It would have been a slaughter.

[Yog]

Early fact check up at New York Times:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/check-point-the-first-debate/?hp

[Jedieb]

Anyone seen any online polls about who won or lost? I've only seen one on CNN and it's heavy for Obama, but it's early and we know squat until we see more reaction.

[Jedieb]

If I'm Obama, I'm splicing McCain's comments about Kissenger and Kissenger's recent quotes at last week's GWU forum because Obama was closer to the truth during that exchange.

[Yog]

Anyone seen any online polls about who won or lost? I've only seen one on CNN and it's heavy for Obama, but it's early and we know squat until we see more reaction.

There is a CBS News poll (not on the web yet) of 500 uncommited voters giving the debate to Obama 40-22, with 38 percent declaring it a tie.

As for online polls, they are not real polls. But most of the major networks ones leans Obama.

Edit - here is a link:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/09/26/politics/horserace/entry4482028.shtml



CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened.

These figures are still preliminary and could change as more respondents complete the survey. But here's what we have so far:

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.

Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.

Forty-nine percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. Fifty-five percent think McCain would.

We will have a full report on the poll later on. Uncommitted voters are those who don't yet know who they will vote for, or who have chosen a candidate but may still change their minds.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it was more of a draw but Mccain's body language hurt him so I give the edge to Obama because of that.

[Yog]

538 (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) is the place to go for poll updates and reactions.


Independents in the MediaCurves focus group gave the debate to Obama 61-39. They also think he won every individual segment. Republicans gave the debate to McCain 90-10, Democrats to Obama 93-7.
http://mediacurves.com/


CNN telephone poll:
Who did better? Who's better on economy? Who's better on foreign policy?
Obama, Obama, Obama

CNN: 51% Obama - 38% McCain.

From SA forums:

Apparently Obama also won Frank Luntz's focus group? You know, the guy who stacks his focus groups to produce favorable results for the GOP?

[Jaime Tomahawk]

OMG, McCain was sooooo good! But the liberal media will be on about how he lied so much. He did not lie! It's a LIBERAL LIE!

[Jedieb]

OMG, McCain was sooooo good! But the liberal media will be on about how he lied so much. He did not lie! It's a LIBERAL LIE!

This bet is killing you, isn't it? ;)

One of the things I think Obama gained most from tonight is that he came across as quite knowledgeable on foreign policy. I think that matters to independents and uncomitteds. They wanted to see if Obama could stand up to McCain. I've been honest on every online poll I've taken, I called it a tie. But if McCain doesn't see any gains from this debate, he's in serious trouble. I think this is as good as it's going to get for McCain. I just don't see either of these guys wiping the floor with one another. I can see ties or narrow wins, but no major game changer.

I'll be watching the polls like a hawk tomorrow. Obama's RCP lead is at 4.2 right now. The danger for McCain is if there's little to no movement in his direction and we come to the VP debate. If Palin doesn't fare better than in her appearances with Couric and Gibson, then this campaign is in a whole. McCain was able to win favorable circumstances for the VP debate format. From the Commission of Presidential Debates:
-Ninety-second answers, followed by two-minute discussion for each question. Two-minute closing statements.

Extended responses are not what Palin is ready for. If I'm Biden, I dropping a dump truck's worth of names. I let them roll off my tongue and get as in depth as I can. Because unless Palin can do better than she has recently, she's going to embarrass herself. What Biden CAN'T do is be overly aggressive. He can't be confrontational. Hell, he should spend more time attacking McCain during the debate than Palin herself.

[Randall Rudd]

Obama is the only candidate who can pronounce Pakistan correctly

[Jaime Tomahawk]

OMG, McCain was sooooo good! But the liberal media will be on about how he lied so much. He did not lie! It's a LIBERAL LIE!

This bet is killing you, isn't it? ;)



No it's not. Palin is genuine ready to be the next Vice President and her husband is a real stud too. I have had a real Road to Damascus moment where it all became clear that Sarah Palin is going to be the cure for all that ails America - she is the gun toting, moose shooting best bit of VP booty ever! and you see the way she handles those Liberal Media? Those answers are a work of a deep thinking genius who is telling it like it is.

She's also had more experience at actually running a government and those nasty smears about her sacking people when it wasn't justified .... well that Police chief had it coming. I dunno why he had it coming, but he had it coming.

Did I mention that Osama guy is a secret Muslim? OMG, that's like the worst thing. And he's a LIBERAL, even tho I have no idea why being a liberal is bad but because my party says so, it's bad.

(Seriouspost - ACK I feel disgusting and need a bath after saying that! And actually...... as a serious question, why DO Republicans think Liberals are the scum of the earth? Anyone got the courage to answer that?)

[Jedieb]

(Seriouspost - ACK I feel disgusting and need a bath after saying that! And actually...... as a serious question, why DO Republicans think Liberals are the scum of the earth? Anyone got the courage to answer that?)
Why are conservatives bible loving, gun toting, moral hypocrites who hate blacks and the poor? Both sides demonize the other, but Republicans have been far more successful of making the other side look bad. They've made 'liberal' a dirty word. McCain even used it last night. But I think Obama had a nice comeback when he said that's what you are if you're consistently opposing George Bush.

The morning pundits are weighing in. It looks it's a draw with each guy having his moments and neither one really hitting a home run on the economy. People do keep mentioning how McCain wouldn't even look at Obama and his angrier moments. The bottom line is, Obama showed he belonged and held his own on McCain's strongest issue.

And I think the McCain camp must be sweating bullets about the VP debate. Because there is nothing I've seen from Palin that leads me to beleve she could have performed that well in that format last night. NOTHING. The 2 minute format may be her savior on Thursday night. If she can fill those 2 minutes with coherent answers then she'll win just by avoiding embarrassment. But last night those two set a high standard, one that I think Biden could easily match.

[Charley]

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1831461

This is the funniest thing I have seen in ages.

Dishonorable mention:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=3be_1222409488

News flash: PUMAs are bigoted, backwards racist morons this is a shock look how shocking this revelation is.

[Yog]

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1831461

This is the funniest thing I have seen in ages.
I would watch that movie :lol



Dishonorable mention
Wow, are those people for real. O_o



The morning pundits are weighing in. It looks it's a draw with each guy having his moments and neither one really hitting a home run on the economy. People do keep mentioning how McCain wouldn't even look at Obama and his angrier moments. The bottom line is, Obama showed he belonged and held his own on McCain's strongest issue.
Well, yeah, pretty much all the pundits called it a tie. The debate polls though, leaned significantly toward Obama. Perhaps the pundits were looking for different things than the viewers at home when they watched the debate.

I thought this was a pretty good analysis about the pundits:
Why Voters Thought Obama Won (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/why-voters-thought-obama-won.html) (more details at link)

...
Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase “middle class” (Obama did so three times). And Obama’s eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi, but figuratively to the punditry. It is no surprise that a small majority of pundits seemed to have thought that McCain won, even when the polls indicated otherwise; the pundits were his target audience.

...

My other annoyance with the punditry is that they seem to weight all segments of the debate equally. There were eight segments in this debate: bailout, economy, spending, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Russia, terrorism. The pundit consensus seems to be that Obama won the segments on the bailout, the economy, and Iraq, drew the segment on Afghanistan, and lost the other four. So, McCain wins 4-3, right? Except that, voters don’t weight these issues anywhere near evenly. In Peter Hart’s recent poll for NBC, 43 percent of voters listed the economy or the financial crisis as their top priority, 12 percent Iraq, and 13 percent terrorism or other foreign policy issues. What happens if we give Obama two out of three economic voters (corresponding to the fact that he won two out of the three segments on the economy), and the Iraq voters, but give McCain all the “other foreign policy” voters?

Issue___________Priority____Obama_____McCain
Economy_________43-------->29________14
Iraq_____________12-------->12_________0
Foreign Policy_____13-------->0_________13
==========================================
Total______________________41________27

By this measure, Obama “won” by 14 points, which almost exactly his margin in the CNN poll.

McCain’s essential problem is that his fundamental strength – his experience -- is specifically not viewed by voters as carrying over to the economy. And the economy is pretty much all that voters care about these days.

[Yog]

I will edit and update this post with polls as they come in:

Obama Leads By Over Five Points In Pre-Debate Tracking Polls (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/obama_led_by_over_five_points.php) 09/27

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, showing that Barack Obama was expanding his lead in the run-up to the first debate:

• Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-45%.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to an Obama lead yesterday of 50%-45%.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-43%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 49.3%-43.8%, up from a lead yesterday of 48.9%-44.5%.

Bear in mind that virtually all of this poll sampling came from before the debate -- as such, it doesn't tell us anything about where the race stands after the debate, but it does give us a baseline.

It also shows that John McCain's pseudo-suspension and active intervention in the bailout negotiations have been a complete bust, with Obama taking a national lead of over five points.


...


CNN Internal numbers for the debate poll are out...

TPM has the internals of the CNN poll of debate-watchers, which had Obama winning overall by a margin of 51-38. The poll suggests that Obama is opening up a gap on connectedness, while closing a gap on readiness...Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters...Something as simple as Obama mentioning that he’ll cut taxes for “95 percent of working families” is worth, I would guess, a point or so in the national polls.... Obama went from a +18 on "understanding your needs and problems" before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on "prepared to be president" to a +21.



Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- Barack Obama or John McCain?
Obama 51%
McCain 38%

Did _______ do a better or worse job than you expected?
Obama: Better 57%, Worse 20%, Same 23%
McCain: Better 60%, Worse 20%, Same 18%

Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or John McCain would better handle each of the following issues:

• The war in Iraq: Obama 52%, McCain 47%

• Terrorism: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

• The economy: Obama 58%, McCain 37%

• The current financial crisis: Obama 54%, McCain 36%

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described Barack Obama or John McCain during tonight's debate:

• Was more intelligent: Obama 55%, McCain 30%

• Expressed his views more clearly: Obama 53%, McCain 36%

• Spent more time attacking his opponent: McCain 60%, Obama 23%

• Was more sincere and authentic: Obama 46%, McCain 38%

• Seemed to be the stronger leader: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

• Was more likeable: Obama 61%, McCain 26%

• Was more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you: Obama 62%, McCain 32%

Based on what _______ said and did in tonight's debate, do you think he would be able to handle the job of president if he is elected?
Obama 69%-29%
McCain 68%-30%

[Jedi Master Carr]

I really think Mccain's body language hurt him badly last night. That could have been the difference for the American public.

[Yog]

^^ Yeah, body language was terrible. Also, pretty much everyone comments on McCain not looking at Obama the whole evening. It was a really odd behavior.

According to the McCain camp, this was the explaination:

He didn't look at Senator Obama because he could see right through him; he doesn't have the experience or foreign policy credentials to lead this country.
:rolleyes


Btw, the TV anchors had Biden comment on the debate afterwards. And 'stand in' for Sarah Palin was Rudolph Giuliani. Go figure, can't risk letting her talk to the press. So where was Sarah? Turns out she was at an Irish pub in Philadelphia....
http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/7676/irishpubam1.jpg

Pool Report from Irish Pub in Philadelphia (http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0908/Where_was_Sarah_Palin_last_night_you_ask.html)

There were 300 angry protesters outside... (warning sound is loud!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs1RMQl8wMQ


The McCain camp is of course not unaware of Palin's unfavorable ratings. They do however have a secret weapon:
McCain camp prays for Palin wedding (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4837644.ece)

IN an election campaign notable for its surprises, Sarah Palin, the Republican vice- presidential candidate, may be about to spring a new one — the wedding of her pregnant teenage daughter to her ice-hockey-playing fiancé before the November 4 election.

Inside John McCain’s campaign the expectation is growing that there will be a popularity boosting pre-election wedding in Alaska between Bristol Palin, 17, and Levi Johnston, 18, her schoolmate and father of her baby. “It would be fantastic,” said a McCain insider. “You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week.”

[MissJess]

Btw, the TV anchors had Biden comment on the debate afterwards. And 'stand in' for Sarah Palin was Rudolph Giuliani. Go figure, can't risk letting her talk to the press.

At least you can predict what Giuliani is going to say!!! :lol

My that is a lovely pic of Palin you have there - I'm sure Jaime T is going to comment...sometime...aren't you Jaime?

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Oh yes I got something to say..

I FEEL DISGUSTING AFTER THAT!!!!

Did you know I actually went onto Republican blogs to find out what they say about Palin to come up with the crap I wrote? And honestly, the level of intellectual disconnect between people voting because of Palin and those voting for Obama is shocking. I feel absolutly and utterly more stupid for that.

Altho I do have to say that I think it's more effective cutting apart Palin support with humor. It did amuse the hell outta me :D

But 24hours is up and I can thankfully get rid of the horror!

^^^^ Okay you can stop stalking me now Jess :p

(MissJess is my actual real live girlfriend who took much amusement at my plight -_-)

[Jedieb]

^^ Yeah, body language was terrible. Also, pretty much everyone comments on McCain not looking at Obama the whole evening. It was a really odd behavior.

According to the McCain camp, this was the explaination:

He didn't look at Senator Obama because he could see right through him; he doesn't have the experience or foreign policy credentials to lead this country.
:rolleyes



Keep up the nastiness, I'm sure Independents and Undecideds will love it. :rolleyes

Like Yog showed, Obama's held a decent lead in all 3 major polls released today. His RCP lead is up to 4.3. The debate won't be fully reflected in the polls until Tuesday. I'd be surprised if Obama doesn't hold his lead or increase it. But I think that McCain's campaign suspension stunt cost him a point or two. The voters obviously weren't impressed and McCain ended up looking foolish by backtracking and attending. I think the debate actually helped McCain because it helped take the focus off of the stunt. BOTH of them gave strong performances IMO. In the end, I think Obama will be remembered as the winner because he achieved his main goal; He stood toe to toe with McCain on Foreign Policy and held his own. If Tuesday's numbers show a tie or increased lean that will be the final verdict for the first poll.

You know, it's sad, but the Bristol marriage could possibly be Hail Mary III. Especially if the campaign makes a big deal out of it. And if McCain actually attends this Shotgun Wedding then it'll just become a farce IMO. I can see the evangelicals that love Sarah eating it up, but I can't see anyone else having a favorable reaction to such a circus.

[Rutabaga]

The McCain camp is of course not unaware of Palin's unfavorable ratings. They do however have a secret weapon:
McCain camp prays for Palin wedding (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4837644.ece)

IN an election campaign notable for its surprises, Sarah Palin, the Republican vice- presidential candidate, may be about to spring a new one — the wedding of her pregnant teenage daughter to her ice-hockey-playing fiancé before the November 4 election.

Inside John McCain’s campaign the expectation is growing that there will be a popularity boosting pre-election wedding in Alaska between Bristol Palin, 17, and Levi Johnston, 18, her schoolmate and father of her baby. “It would be fantastic,” said a McCain insider. “You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week.”

If that happens, they should be absolutely ASHAMED of themselves.

And a big :twak for that stupid explanation for why McGrumpy never looked at Obama. Whoever thought of that excuse should be :shootin.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

You know, it's sad, but the Bristol marriage could possibly be Hail Mary III. Especially if the campaign makes a big deal out of it. And if McCain actually attends this Shotgun Wedding then it'll just become a farce IMO. I can see the evangelicals that love Sarah eating it up, but I can't see anyone else having a favorable reaction to such a circus.

I think Independants will just get even more alienated if that was seriously the October surprise. And really.... just how retarded would this election become if that circus really happened? And how disgusting too.

Personally, I think Obama's got an October surprise up his sleeve. Probably timed for say two weeks before polling day.

[Yog]

Here is a rather revealing article in the Washington Post describing what went on behind closed doors in Washington..
How McCain Stirred a Simmering Pot (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/26/AR2008092603957_pf.html)

Some more debate polls are out. First up, Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/winner_of_the_first_debate_jim_lehrer)

Among those who watched the entire debate, 85% thought Lehrer maintained his neutrality.

As for the candidates, 36% thought Obama won, 33% gave the advantage to McCain, and 31% were not sure. Partisans in the electorate lined up behind their candidate in a way that would make spin room handlers proud. By a 67% to 3% margin, Obama supporters thought he won the debate. By a 73% to 2% margin, McCain voters thought their man came out ahead (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Overall, ratings for the debate were down, possibly because of the Friday night scheduling. Fifty-five percent (55%) of likely voters say they watched the entire event and 12% said they saw none of it.

Five percent (5%) of voters say the debate changed how they would vote, but the changes were equally divided between Obama and McCain supporters. Saturday interviews for the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll—the first post debate interviews--suggest that little has changed following the debate and Obama retains a modest lead over McCain.

...

Cross Data Analysis posted at SA:

Moderates go for Obama 44-28, while Independents break 34-30 and final number is 36-33

Obama tied among men, won women by 6 points, lost whites by 8 points, won every education level.

It should be pointed out that 1000 people were polled, and 120 people watched none of it which factors into the numbers. If you take the 120 people out of it, Obama won 42-31.


USA TODAY/Gallup Poll (http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/09/usatgallup-poll.html)

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows 46% of people who watched Friday night's presidential debate say Democrat Barack Obama did a better job than Republican John McCain; 34% said McCain did better.

Obama scored even better -- 52%-35% -- when debate-watchers were asked which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country’s problems.

More than six in 10 people or 63% in the one-day poll, taken Saturday, said they watched the first faceoff in Oxford, Miss. For those 701 people, the margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points.

The poll suggested the debate was to some extent a wash for McCain: 21% of those who watched say it gave them a more favorable view of him, 21% say less favorable and 56% say it didn't change their opinion much.

Three in 10 said their opinion of Obama became more favorable after seeing the debate, compared to 14% who said less favorable and 54% who said it didn't make much difference.

More than one-third of viewers, or 37%, said they had less confidence in McCain to fix economic problems after seeing the debate; 23% said more. For Obama, the survey results were 34% more confidence, 26% less.

Neither candidate broke away on national security and foreign policy. About a third of viewers said they had more confidence in each man on that front after the debate, and slightly less in each case said they had less confidence.

Obama held a 5-percentage-point lead over McCain, 49%-45%, in the Gallup tracking poll taken Wednesday through Friday. Tomorrow's poll will be the first to include impact from the debate.

[Yog]

Saturday Night Live version of the Palin - Couric interview. :)

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[Jaime Tomahawk]

Saturday Night Live version of the Palin - Couric interview. :)

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And the real scary thing is that THAT'S PALIN'S OWN WORDS

How on earth Obama is only just leading is beyond me. Plain makes GWB look like an intellectual giant.

And much to my amazement.....

(20:24:48) Marcus: I will kick every American in the crotch
(20:25:15) Marcus: Wait rewind, Wallisa is the Meth-head capital of alaska?
(20:25:50) Yog: yeah, there are some ridiculous per capita statistics for drugs in Wasilla
(20:26:17) Marcus: You didnt make that up?
(20:26:35) Yog: no, in fact, I read there were some 90 meth labs in that town
(20:26:47) Marcus: 90 meth labs
(20:26:56) Marcus: IN A TOWN OF 6000??????
(20:27:01) Yog: hahaha, yeah
(20:27:04) Marcus: WHAT
(20:27:09) Yog: :D
(20:27:33) Valandil SA: well, I don't remember the exact number, but it was really high

And subsequently....

http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/030805/sta_20050308002.shtml

-_-

Confirmed.

Nothing to do with Palin, but I found that her little town was such a meth hotbed amazing.

[MissJess]

best quote from that story ever...:lol


When authorities surrounded a converted bus housing a meth operation in Big Lake in January, a 13-year-old boy who answered the door bragged that his mom cooked the best meth in the valley, according to the troopers.

[Rutabaga]

Frank Rich of the NY Times totally pwned John McCain yesterday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/opinion/28rich.html?_r=1&ei=5070&emc=eta1&oref=slogin


WHAT we learned last week is that the man who always puts his “country first” will take the country down with him if that’s what it takes to get to the White House.

And that's just the first paragraph.

[Jedieb]

In all 3 polls released today Obama has increased his lead. Gallop has him at 50% with an 8 point lead. His RCP average is up to 4.8. And if that GWU/Battleground polling ever joins the rest of the world he's going to come close to a 6 point lead. What's clear is the Suspension and the Palin Couric interview have taken their toll on McCain. Today's polls also reflect a full day of post debate interviews. So McCain didn't stop the bleeding with his performance Friday night.

I expect that Thursday night's debate could very well top 60 million. The ratings for Friday's debate were actually down from 04. I was kind of surprised but I think you can lay part of that on it being on a Friday. I expect the Palin factor and the big ratings of a Thursday night audience to produce bigger results. Again, all Palin has to do is look somewhat competent and come close to a tie and it'll be a win for her. Biden could help her out with a major gaffe or by being too aggressive. But if she has a couple of clueless moments like she has with Gibson and Couric it will be a trainwreck and pretty much put a nail in her coffin. Independents will simply never take her seriously again, if they ever have. Make no mistake, she could butcher the names of several foreign leaders, contradict McCain on policy, or tie the bailout into healthcare again and the base will still love her. They don't care. But they're not going to get McCain elected president.

[Yog]

Here are the daily tracking numbers so far:
Rasmussen O 50 M 44
Diageo O 47 M 42
Gallup O 50 M 42
R2000 O 50 M 43

It's brutal. A disaster for McCain. All the major poll agencies project a clear lead for Obama. The events of last week explained in that New York Times article posted by Rutabaga pretty much covers why McCain has been dropping so much for the last few days. But today, we are starting to see some results of the debate. Keep in mind, we have not seen the full effect of the post debate swing yet. There is still 1 day of polling before it spreads into 3 day averages.

In case you have any doubt who won the debate, this cross data analysis from todays gallup explains what is going on with that +3% boost:
http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/debate-poll1.gif

Obama could still gain a point or two tomorrow. Then McCain can really go into panic mode, leading to the upcomming meltdown of Chernobyl proportions this Thursday (hint; it involves Palin!).

[Jedieb]

The Bailout deal is just about set. I'm not sure if they'll vote today or tomorrow. If it passes McCain and his surrogates are going to be desperately trying to take credit for it. At the very least they'll say McCain came back to help with the bill and all Obama did was keep campaigning. But I don't think anyone outside of his base will buy it. I think the proof is in these last few days of polls. The voters polled saw the suspension as a stunt, that's why McCain didn't gain any ground. A bill and McCain spin isn't going to do much better. I think we'll see the numbers stabilize, maybe even drop a bit right up to Thursday.

What's going to happen on Thursday? You have to think Palin is going to be sequestered in debate prep for all of next week. I still think she's has a 50/50 chance of getting through the debate and managing a tie. But if she implodes then I think we could see Obama open up a 10 point lead by next Sunday. Because more and more Palin failures have to be attributed as a McCain failure. This was HIS choice to succeed him in case of his death. I think many remaining undecideds are finally going to start holding him accountable for this choice.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

As much as the VP debate has everyone just itching to go...

I think the things you dont usually hear about tell the story of the McCain campaign.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/28/10375/5065/22/613231

Ditching swing voters is not exactly a good idea. That tells me plenty about the status of the McCain campign finds itself in.

[Atreyu]

I don't have any serious commentary to add, but I found this on TFN (in turn found from another forum) that cracked me up concerning the upcoming VP debates:


My prediction: that the VP debate will end with Palin curled up in the corner while Biden dons parachute pants and does the Hammer dance across the stage.

http://www.pcboomradio.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/animated_mchammer.gif
:lol

[Cat X]

I don't have any serious commentary to add, but I found this on TFN (in turn found from another forum) that cracked me up concerning the upcoming VP debates:


My prediction: that the VP debate will end with Palin curled up in the corner while Biden dons parachute pants and does the Hammer dance across the stage.

http://www.pcboomradio.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/animated_mchammer.gif
:lol

I'll pay good money to see that!

And in MORE Palin WTF did she say news....


Another cringe moment

From Fox News:

PHILADELPHIA"Sarah Palin had coffee this morning at a gourmet market and breakfast restaurant and was joined by four Blue Star mothers. The Blue Star Moms are a support and service group for women whose sons and daughters are in the military.

Palin responded to a question about the economic recovery plan, which was hashed out overnight. She answered, but she made it clear that she was then going to concentrate on the Blue Star Moms, "Bailout? Ok? Then I"m going to talk to these gals whose sons are also in the service. But, thankful that John McCain is able to have some of those provisions implemented in that Paulson proposal to have more sound oversight," Palin said. "Taxpayers aren"t going to be assumed to be called upon to bail out so I"m glad that John McCain"s voice is heard and his leadership too."

Que?

And in MORE WTF news about Palin....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/28/palin-claimed-dinosaurs-a_n_130012.html

Even as a fairly loony Christian myself, this is just such a denial of reality.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I loved Matt Damon's quote in that article. I like telling people that think that well there was a lot of incest going on to get the amount of people we have today. Plus how do people get from Asia minor to the Americas?? Well that is all for my little rant on that subject.

[Cat X]

http://echelon.mirror.waffleimages.com/files/2e/2e8ca3ff9c2f1ad611b530f3ce948d579608a803.jpg

Yeah, that's about right!

[Cat X]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/29/8219/76096/176/614086

Wachovia fails and it is bought out.

The bailout is looking doubtful too - it seems like an awful lot of legislators are looking rather leery at such big numbers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its only republicans that are dragging their feet. I think it has to be done or things might get worse.

[Darth McBain]

Had to just mention this...

We have (had) an Obama sign in our front yard. This weekend, somebody stole it. As it turned out, we had a second one that we were planning to give to a friend, but hadn't gotten around to giving it to her yet. So we put that one out. The next night - stolen...

It ticks me off. There are tons of McCain signs up in my neighborhood, and while I don't support him at all, I at least respect people's right to keep a sign up for him. But apparently the Republican Guard (as we call them) are out and about pulling down Obama signs - we're not the only ones in our neighborhood who have lost them.

Now I don't have any proof that it was Republicans who did it - but I find it unlikely that it was Democrats who just needed a sign of their own... That Republicans would stoop so low in their tactics just makes me all the more staunch in my Democratic stance this election. While I would like to put up more signs, I probably won't - if they're just going to keep stealing them then this could get costly. But I wanted to at least mention this here on a public forum so people are aware of the depths people will stoop to.

And before I get flamed by any Republicans here, yes I'm sure this has happened where Dems have stolen Reps signs. However from what I've seen and read, this seems to be driven by Reps (at least in my area)...

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am shocked the Bailout failed. Right now the Stock market is taking a beating it is down 519 points right now. I think it was a huge mistake not to pass it. I am afraid the stock market could really crash this week without it.

[Jedieb]

Its only republicans that are dragging their feet. I think it has to be done or things might get worse.

That's not entirely true. It failed with about 40% of Democrats baliing on it. There's a reason this is a tough pill for House members to pass it. Bush, Paulson, McCain, and Obama have simply not been able to convince the majority of Americans that this bill is necessary. I think Bush has been pretty clear with the message that the sky could fall at any moment. The problem is he has no credibility. Throw that in with the staggering figures that the bill includes and it's no wonder the public hasn't bought in yet. People are calling up their house representatives and giving them hell about it. These guys are ALL up for re-election in November. They have opponents that are ready to pounce on them if they vote for this bill. There are probably DOZENS of Congressmen who know that voting for this bill could very well cost them their job in November. Even if the bailout succeeds, many people will never believe it was necessary. You're damned if do, damned if you don't.

Now, they're close, less than 15 votes away I think. Maybe the dive that the market took will convince those holding out to change their votes.

[Jedieb]

Had to just mention this...

We have (had) an Obama sign in our front yard. This weekend, somebody stole it. As it turned out, we had a second one that we were planning to give to a friend, but hadn't gotten around to giving it to her yet. So we put that one out. The next night - stolen...

It ticks me off. There are tons of McCain signs up in my neighborhood, and while I don't support him at all, I at least respect people's right to keep a sign up for him. But apparently the Republican Guard (as we call them) are out and about pulling down Obama signs - we're not the only ones in our neighborhood who have lost them.

Now I don't have any proof that it was Republicans who did it - but I find it unlikely that it was Democrats who just needed a sign of their own... That Republicans would stoop so low in their tactics just makes me all the more staunch in my Democratic stance this election. While I would like to put up more signs, I probably won't - if they're just going to keep stealing them then this could get costly. But I wanted to at least mention this here on a public forum so people are aware of the depths people will stoop to.

And before I get flamed by any Republicans here, yes I'm sure this has happened where Dems have stolen Reps signs. However from what I've seen and read, this seems to be driven by Reps (at least in my area)...

I had a Veterans for Kerry sign stolen from my yard in 04. I'm not putting up a sign this year because my local Obama office doesn't have any. They're actually more focused on registration efforts, canvassing, and phone banking. I think it's a good strategy, but people love their signs. If you've had it done to you once, it's a good chance it'll happen again. I think it's just disgusting and petty. I'd never take a McCain sign down. But I'd love to have a camera with me if I caught a neighbor taking a sign off my yard. I'd walk right up to their door, knock, and show them the pic.
"You've got till the end of the day to replace my sign or I call the cops and show them this. Have a nice day, see you Nov. 4th!"

[Yog]

The stock market is really crashing today. This is on level with the 9/11 stock crash. In fact, looking at the 3 major indexes, this may even be worse. 9/11 crash had a 7% drop of Dow Jones, but I am not sure of the others.

Update 20 minutes before close:
Dow Jones -5.13%
S&P 500 -7.86%
NASDAQ -6.86%

[Jedi Master Carr]

The one in 1929 was still worse I think that was like 10-15%or something. This is still very bad.

[Yog]

This crash is going into the history books:

Record Drops in Dow and S&P (http://www.cnbc.com/id/26945976/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext% 7C&par=yahoo)


Record Drops in Dow and S&P

With volatility continuing to soar, the Dow [.DJIA 10365.45 -777.68 (-6.98%) ] and S&P [.SPX 1106.55 -106.46 (-8.78%) ] were on track for their biggest point losses. Prior to today, the biggest point drops for the Dow & S&P was after the 9/11 attacks in 2001. All the major indices were down over 6% for the first time since 1998. The VIX [VIX 46.72 11.98 (+34.48%) ] is poised to close at levels not seen since 1988.

Dow biggest point drops
9/17/01 down 685
4/14/00 down 618
10/27/97 down 554
8/31/98 down 513
10/19/87 down 508

S&P biggest point drops
4/14/00 down 83
8/31/98 down 70
10/27/97 down 65
9/15/08 down 59
10/19/87 down 57

NASDAQ biggest point drops
4/14/00 down 356
4/3/00 down 349
4/12/00 down 286
4/10/00 down 258
1/4/00 down 230

Leading the Dow down today are GM, Bank of America, and American Express - all down over 10%. Leading the S&P's plunge are Wachovia and Sovereign Bancorp, both down over 70%!

Dow 10,365.45 -777.68 (-6.98%) RECORD DROP!
Nasdaq 1,983.73 -199.61 (-9.14%) (might be a record percentage wise?)
S&P 500 1,106.42 -106.59 (-8.79%) RECORD DROP!

Neither Dow or S&P ever dropped this much in a single day...

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is horrible one of the worse days in the history of the stock market.

[Yog]

You GOTTA be kidding me!


McCain takes credit for bill before it loses

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and his top aides took credit for building a winning bailout coalition – hours before the vote failed and stocks tanked.

The rush to claim he had engineered a victory now looks like a strategic blunder that will prolong the McCain’s campaign’s difficulty in finding a winning message on the economy.

Shortly before the vote, McCain had bragged about his involvement and mocked Sen. Barack Obama for staying on the sidelines.

“I've never been afraid of stepping in to solve problems for the American people, and I'm not going to stop now,” McCain told a rally in Columbus, Ohio. “Senator Obama took a very different approach to the crisis our country faced. At first he didn't want to get involved. Then he was monitoring the situation.”
McCain, grinning, flashed a sarcastic thumbs-up.

“That's not leadership. That's watching from the sidelines,” he added to cheers and applause.

Wisely, in retrospect, McCain initially had been more modest. On Sunday, he said on ABC’s “This Week” that congressional negotiators deserve “great credit” for the bipartisan deal. “"It wasn’t because of me,” McCain said. “They did it themselves.”

But at almost the same time, McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt was saying on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “What Senator McCain was able to do … was to help get all of the parties to the table. There had been announcements by Senate leaders saying that a deal had been reached earlier in the week. There were no votes for that deal.

“Senator McCain knew time was short and he came back, he listened and he helped put together the framework of getting everybody to the table, which was necessary to produce a package to avoid a financial catastrophe for this country.”

On Monday morning, McCain campaign communications director Jill Hazelbaker said on Fox News that the deal would not have happened “without Senator McCain.”

“Senator McCain interrupted his campaign, suspended his campaign activity to come back to Washington to get Republicans around a table,” Hazelbaker said. “Without Senator McCain, House Republicans would not have appointed a negotiator, which would not have moved this bill forward.

“It’s really Senator McCain who got all parties around a table to hammer out a deal that hopefully is in the best interests of the American taxpayer.”

After the vote, commentators were harsh. MSNBC’s Chris Matthews said: “He’s like a cavalry commander who said ‘Charge!’ and the Republicans went into retreat.”

Source (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14088.html)

[CMJ]

If we're talking percentage drops...1929 was way worse than this. As was Black Monday in 1987.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Percentagewise, the this is not a record. 1987 is STILL by far a bigger percentage (22%). You dont watch the points, you watch the percentage. 1929 again is far bigger.

The bear run from 1929 to 1932 was I think in the order of 90% and it took 20 years for stocks to recover to pre 1929 levels. This bear run I think is close to 40% or 4000 points and this IS the biggest bear run since 1929. Is there a market ground floor? Yeah, I think so. I think there could be another 20% to go. This in itself is pretty bad as wealth is pretty much vapourised and thence potential spending power.

As for the bailout...... ouch! This is not good. I'm surprised it failed by such a margin. Problem is, you cant wait for the next Congress and a possible alternative proposal so.... what the hell is going to be done?


McCain takes credit for bill before it loses

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and his top aides took credit for building a winning bailout coalition – hours before the vote failed and stocks tanked.

The rush to claim he had engineered a victory now looks like a strategic blunder that will prolong the McCain’s campaign’s difficulty in finding a winning message on the economy.

Shortly before the vote, McCain had bragged about his involvement and mocked Sen. Barack Obama for staying on the sidelines.

“I've never been afraid of stepping in to solve problems for the American people, and I'm not going to stop now,” McCain told a rally in Columbus, Ohio. “Senator Obama took a very different approach to the crisis our country faced. At first he didn't want to get involved. Then he was monitoring the situation.”
McCain, grinning, flashed a sarcastic thumbs-up.

What an utter lying bastard, considerign what he did last week. And people seriously can say with a straight face this guy is worth being President? It's almost worth the bailout failing to see this one slam him in the balls.

[Yog]

It's still bigger percentage drop than 9/11 crash, and the biggest in 21 years.

[Jedi Master Carr]

McCain looks like an idiot after taking credit it for this morning. This is a mess, the question is can it get worse?

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

I made a thread for all of our economic doomsaying so that this thread doesn't get sidetracked too much from its' initial topic :)

http://75.126.43.122/forum/showthread.php?p=281749#post281749

[Jaime Tomahawk]

McCain looks like an idiot after taking credit it for this morning. This is a mess, the question is can it get worse?

Yes.

On the bright side, this almost certainly guarantees a black dude in the White House. Another week of the economy cratering and I really dont think the Republicans Party will survive in it's current form.

[Rutabaga]

You GOTTA be kidding me!


McCain takes credit for bill before it loses

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and his top aides took credit for building a winning bailout coalition – hours before the vote failed and stocks tanked.

The rush to claim he had engineered a victory now looks like a strategic blunder that will prolong the McCain’s campaign’s difficulty in finding a winning message on the economy.

Shortly before the vote, McCain had bragged about his involvement and mocked Sen. Barack Obama for staying on the sidelines.

“I've never been afraid of stepping in to solve problems for the American people, and I'm not going to stop now,” McCain told a rally in Columbus, Ohio. “Senator Obama took a very different approach to the crisis our country faced. At first he didn't want to get involved. Then he was monitoring the situation.”
McCain, grinning, flashed a sarcastic thumbs-up.

“That's not leadership. That's watching from the sidelines,” he added to cheers and applause.

Wisely, in retrospect, McCain initially had been more modest. On Sunday, he said on ABC’s “This Week” that congressional negotiators deserve “great credit” for the bipartisan deal. “"It wasn’t because of me,” McCain said. “They did it themselves.”

But at almost the same time, McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt was saying on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “What Senator McCain was able to do … was to help get all of the parties to the table. There had been announcements by Senate leaders saying that a deal had been reached earlier in the week. There were no votes for that deal.

“Senator McCain knew time was short and he came back, he listened and he helped put together the framework of getting everybody to the table, which was necessary to produce a package to avoid a financial catastrophe for this country.”

On Monday morning, McCain campaign communications director Jill Hazelbaker said on Fox News that the deal would not have happened “without Senator McCain.”

“Senator McCain interrupted his campaign, suspended his campaign activity to come back to Washington to get Republicans around a table,” Hazelbaker said. “Without Senator McCain, House Republicans would not have appointed a negotiator, which would not have moved this bill forward.

“It’s really Senator McCain who got all parties around a table to hammer out a deal that hopefully is in the best interests of the American taxpayer.”

After the vote, commentators were harsh. MSNBC’s Chris Matthews said: “He’s like a cavalry commander who said ‘Charge!’ and the Republicans went into retreat.”

Source (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14088.html)

This is my biggest fear, and yes, it's a "tin hat" kind of moment, but I'm really afraid of the Republicans trying to manipulate this whole thing and trying to turn it into a "McCain saves the day!" moment. Seeing as how it backfired today, that helps relieve me somewhat. Although there's still every chance they'll try it again.

[Yog]

So... stock market loses a trillion dollar in value in one day, while McCain plays political wordgame. That statement earlier today was probably enough to buck those 11 votes lacking in congress. You gotta love politics.

[Cat X]

You GOTTA be kidding me!


McCain takes credit for bill before it loses

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and his top aides took credit for building a winning bailout coalition – hours before the vote failed and stocks tanked.

The rush to claim he had engineered a victory now looks like a strategic blunder that will prolong the McCain’s campaign’s difficulty in finding a winning message on the economy.

Shortly before the vote, McCain had bragged about his involvement and mocked Sen. Barack Obama for staying on the sidelines.

“I've never been afraid of stepping in to solve problems for the American people, and I'm not going to stop now,” McCain told a rally in Columbus, Ohio. “Senator Obama took a very different approach to the crisis our country faced. At first he didn't want to get involved. Then he was monitoring the situation.”
McCain, grinning, flashed a sarcastic thumbs-up.

“That's not leadership. That's watching from the sidelines,” he added to cheers and applause.

Wisely, in retrospect, McCain initially had been more modest. On Sunday, he said on ABC’s “This Week” that congressional negotiators deserve “great credit” for the bipartisan deal. “"It wasn’t because of me,” McCain said. “They did it themselves.”

But at almost the same time, McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt was saying on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “What Senator McCain was able to do … was to help get all of the parties to the table. There had been announcements by Senate leaders saying that a deal had been reached earlier in the week. There were no votes for that deal.

“Senator McCain knew time was short and he came back, he listened and he helped put together the framework of getting everybody to the table, which was necessary to produce a package to avoid a financial catastrophe for this country.”

On Monday morning, McCain campaign communications director Jill Hazelbaker said on Fox News that the deal would not have happened “without Senator McCain.”

“Senator McCain interrupted his campaign, suspended his campaign activity to come back to Washington to get Republicans around a table,” Hazelbaker said. “Without Senator McCain, House Republicans would not have appointed a negotiator, which would not have moved this bill forward.

“It’s really Senator McCain who got all parties around a table to hammer out a deal that hopefully is in the best interests of the American taxpayer.”

After the vote, commentators were harsh. MSNBC’s Chris Matthews said: “He’s like a cavalry commander who said ‘Charge!’ and the Republicans went into retreat.”
Source (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14088.html)

This is my biggest fear, and yes, it's a "tin hat" kind of moment, but I'm really afraid of the Republicans trying to manipulate this whole thing and trying to turn it into a "McCain saves the day!" moment. Seeing as how it backfired today, that helps relieve me somewhat. Although there's still every chance they'll try it again.

I think it's rapidly getting to the point where there is now voters in growing numbers lookign to lash out and it simply wont matter what the Republicans say. They have the Presidiency, they are the visible targets for the pain a lot are now feeling.

Once the electorate stops listening and has the baseball bats out, nothing you do will affect it. Looking at how hard and how fast the numbers are swinging in Obama's favor and knowing NOW is when voters start making up their minds......

I suspect the electorate is about to switch off and lash out savagely. For an incumbent party, that maeans NOTHING will change the result.

I use the example of our own election last year, when John Howard tried all sorts of stunts but the simple fact was, the electorate had stopped listening and was waiting to belt him one at the polls.

Now as much as stunts and fancy words may in the past delect attention, the real facts is the economic situation is bared for all to see. When people's pockets get hurt, they get angry. Stunts no longer work.

So your fear while justified isnt one I would worry about. Not now. Not with people hurting hard now.

[Jedieb]

Only one poll has been keeping McCain's head above water, the GWU/Battleground poll. And today they finally joined the rest of the pack. They had a 4 point swing and Obama now leads 48 to 46. His RCP average is at 5.1. That's the highest it's been since early Sept. The debate and bailout mess are slowly inching polls in Obama's favor. The debate has had less of an impact than the econony IMO. I think Obama has actually done a much better job of managing the economic meltdown politically. He hasn't really done much of anything except stay in the background and on the campaign trail while McCain has repeatedly shot himself in the foot.

Palin
Thursday really could be devastating for McCain. He and Palin went back to CBS and Couric for a joint interview. I thought it was kind of sad at times. It looked as if he had to go back and bail her out of her previous trainwreck of an interview. At times he wouldn't even let her answer for herself. Look, she's not a turnip. This woman IS a skilled politician. She has to have some chops to have gotten as far in Alaska as she has. But the fact is, she's in way over her head. Obama had 4 years on a national stage, dozens of debates, and an academic career that I could only dream of. She was thrust into this position about a decade too soon. The blame for that falls squarely on McCain. It was beyond reckless for him to put her in this position. It's as if Reagan would have run for President after wrapping on the set of Bedtime for Bonzo. Still, I would not be stunned if she 'wins' this debate on Thursday. All she has to do is fake competance and she'll pull it off. And the two minute answers should help her. But then again, the Gibson and Couric interviews weren't long responses. Her gaffes came in response to questions that weren't all that tough. The moderator is Gwen I. from PBS. She's an excellent journalist, but she can be tough. She could wreck Palin if she wanted to but she also has a reputation for being fair. I don't think we'll see any gotcha questions. But Biden can really put her behind the 8ball if he's on his game. Man, this is going to be the most watched of the 4 debates, mark my words. And it could be the final nail in McCain's coffin.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/220826.php

What

The

F.....?

Oh now come on, your not running for some craphole in the wilderness. Your running for the most powerful job in the world! This is not a time or place for stupid stunts. The way you campaign is going to be seen as the way you run your Whitehouse, managing trillions of dollars, millions of employees etc and you have to show some sort of ability to do that!

Let alone the clown you got as your number two.


This woman IS a skilled politician. She has to have some chops to have gotten as far in Alaska as she has. But the fact is, she's in way over her head.

Mate, I sit across on some days of the desk of CEO's and guys who run businesses worth hundreds of millions. I've met and interacted with thousands in my job lifetime. I've also worshipped with the same kind of people Palin is. You kinda develop skills in summing people up in the way they act and say.

She is NOT skilled. She is not highly intelligent. She is so far beyond her depth, it's lower than whale crap. She can read a speech, but then again she's supposed to be qualified as a journalist and did talking head work so that SHOULD be a wash.

But she is quite clearly fundamentally contemptuous of intellectual pursuits and has no knowledge about ANYTHING that she will have to face and seems unwilling to reverse that. Do people understand why this is horrifying to us dirty foreigners? And totally not understandable on any level? How the hell you can have someone that unready and that unwilling to admit it is just mortifying.

And given how the USA economy is splattering..... not exactly someone you want even CLOSE to the White House.

[Jedieb]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/220826.php

What

The

F.....?

Oh now come on, your not running for some craphole in the wilderness. Your running for the most powerful job in the world! This is not a time or place for stupid stunts. The way you campaign is going to be seen as the way you run your Whitehouse, managing trillions of dollars, millions of employees etc and you have to show some sort of ability to do that!

Let alone the clown you got as your number two.


This woman IS a skilled politician. She has to have some chops to have gotten as far in Alaska as she has. But the fact is, she's in way over her head.

Mate, I sit across on some days of the desk of CEO's and guys who run businesses worth hundreds of millions. I've met and interacted with thousands in my job lifetime. I've also worshipped with the same kind of people Palin is. You kinda develop skills in summing people up in the way they act and say.

She is NOT skilled. She is not highly intelligent. She is so far beyond her depth, it's lower than whale crap. She can read a speech, but then again she's supposed to be qualified as a journalist and did talking head work so that SHOULD be a wash.

But she is quite clearly fundamentally contemptuous of intellectual pursuits and has no knowledge about ANYTHING that she will have to face and seems unwilling to reverse that. Do people understand why this is horrifying to us dirty foreigners? And totally not understandable on any level? How the hell you can have someone that unready and that unwilling to admit it is just mortifying.

And given how the USA economy is splattering..... not exactly someone you want even CLOSE to the White House.

Look, I couldn't agree with you more that she shouldn't be let anywhere near the White House. But I think you're underestimating her and overestimating the American public at the same time. Yep, she's "clearly fundamentally contemptuous of intellectual pursuits". Yet my country has just given the nuclear codes in the last two elections to the king of that description. For Yoda's sake, HE CAN'T EVEN PRONOUNCE 'NUCLEAR' CORRECTLY!

I've seen clips of her gubenatorial debates, she more than held her own. I was startled at how more competent she appeared than in her recent interviews. She will have decent stretches on Thursday night. I think Thursday night could be a train wreck and I will take great delight at the carnage. But I'm not going to be stunned if she manages to squeak by. That's all she has to do. I can't stand hearing her speak, but I know that there are people in this country that LOVE her. I can't emphasize that enough. There are a significant numbers of McCain voters who are more passionate about Palin than they are McCain. It makes no logical sense, but it's TRUE. She drew 60,000 in Florida a few days ago. McCain couldn't get a group like that on his best day in Florida. When they campaign together you can see people LEAVING the rally once she's done and McCain is speaking. You hear stories about McCain offices being graveyards UNTIL the Palin pick. Now they've got money and volunteers.

Plus, you have to worry about Biden. Biden has to put his mouth on neutral. He has to keep an even keel. If he's too aggressive or dismissive, he'll do her a giant favor. Remember how openly contemptuous McCain was of Obama on Friday night? If Biden does that it would be an early X-Mas present to McCain.

[RuthCalabria]

I like your serious discussion of Palin, but you're missing the point that Republicans should not be elected, must not be elected. We explain why on our website, http://www.matrix-evolutions.com. I hope some of you will read about the abysmal future we will have if McCain is elected. In the meantime, they may dump Palin yet, and I hope so as many foolish women will vote for her just because she is a woman. She and McCain are disasters, I repeat, disasters.

Mrs. Ruth Calabria, Chairwoman
The Evolution of Information: A Mathematical Ideology

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

That... is a lot of writing O_O

I don't have the time to sift through all of that, but I'm curious.

When you say that republicans shouldn't be elected, do you mean as a whole, or the ones currently running?

[Yog]

I've seen clips of her gubenatorial debates, she more than held her own. I was startled at how more competent she appeared than in her recent interviews.
I watched clips of those too. Here is a full debate (http://gregransom.com/prestopundit/2008/09/sarah-palin-debates-tony-knowl.html). She is good at debating hunting / fishing rights, abortion, drilling for oil in ANWR etc, because those are the fields she knows anything about. She knows about her state, the geography, the community, and their values. Once you move outside that sphere, she fumbles like a cocaine addict on crack.

She has no clue on domestic issues, let alone foreign issues. It's almost as if she was living in a cave for her entire life, never watching the news. Palin was recently asked about what newspapers she reads regularly, and she could not come up with a single example. She was also asked to name a Supreme Court case besides Roe Vs Wade, and she came out blank on that one as well.

There is also her debate style. She is not good with facts and numbers, just general statements. Here is how one of her opponents characterised her debate skills:
What it's like to debate Sarah Palin (http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20081001/cm_csm/yseaquist)

Anchorage, Alaska - When he faces off against Sarah Palin Thursday night, Joe Biden will have his hands full.

I should know. I've debated Governor Palin more than two dozen times. And she's a master, not of facts, figures, or insightful policy recommendations, but at the fine art of the nonanswer, the glittering generality. Against such charms there is little Senator Biden, or anyone, can do.
I think, regarding the above assessment, while she was a formidable opponent in Alaska, this approach is not going to work well on a national televised debate on domestic and foreign policy. You can be the best debater in the world, but if you're absolutely clueless on the topics you discuss, you are going to appear, well... clueless.

I don't think she is a skilled politician either. She should not even been a Mayor. Her road to Governor of Alaska was a lightning in a bottle moment, partly because she ran against douches, partly because Alaska is probably the easiest state to run for Governor, and she ran on issues she believes in and which the Alaska people cared about. Had she been running for Governor in any other state, she would not pass the stink test on budget policies.

A skilled politician that I can take for serious would be Olympia Snowe. Here is a sample interview. The contrast to Palin is like night and day:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR8iSXnMfUY

Oh, and here is the upcomming cover of the New Yorker:
http://img395.imageshack.us/img395/5617/newyorkeroa3.jpg

[Morgan Evanar]

A skilled politician that I can take for serious would be Olympia Snowe. Here is a sample interview. The contrast to Palin is like night and day:Olympia Snowe is a moderate and for "choice". Further, she does nothing for the "God, Gays and Guns" crowd.

[Yog]

Olympia Snowe is a moderate and for "choice". Further, she does nothing for the "God, Gays and Guns" crowd.
Yes, I noticed that, which just further proves what the selection of Palin is all about. It sure as heck was not her "executive experience" McCain had in mind.

Edit - update on what is going on with the Troopergate investigation from Alaskan perspective:
http://community.adn.com/mini_apps/vmix/player.php?ID=2221420&GID=118

[Jedieb]

All very good posts about Palin. I will however, continue to play Devil's advocate because if she pulls off a stunner it will help cushion the blow.

Friday's First Republican Talking Point if Balin Bombs
Gwen Ifill is in the tank for Obama. And they'll have some actual evidence to support this. In January, right around Innaguration Day, Ifill is releasing a book about the Obama campaign. "The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama" You can guess where this is going. I love Ifill, I think she and Leher are some of the best newspeople in the business. She's clearly an Obama supporter and the Republicans will use this as spin Friday morning. I think she's got a tough job on her hands tomorrow. I think she will be more than fair, but I'm worried she may hold back at times and give Palin an easy out if she stumbles. Last week Leher actually went after both Obama and McCain when he asked them what they would cut if they were elected. Can Ifill do the same to Palin? What happens if Palin gives some non-sensical SNL type of answer to a foreign policy question? Does she ask a follow up or just let the gaffe hang out there? I think the fact that she's a woman gives her more of a license to go after Palin. Couric doesn't have a reputation as a tough interviewer, but she was able to be more aggressive than Gibson because of her gender. I hope Ifill does the same. I also hope she gives Biden some grief as well. I think he'll come off better if he gets some tough questions and gets the opportunity to defend himself.

In my dream world. Palin turns in a performance tomorrow night that would make Quayle look like Churchill rallying the British during the Battle of Britain. I will gleefully join in the chorus of liberal AND conservative bashing. (And there's been plenty of conservatives turing on this pick. I think George Will is considering a murder suicide pact the next time he see's McCain.)

The last time I checked Obama's RCP was 4.8. He's also regained his Electoral College lead. He's got a lot more ways to get to 270 than McCain. One of the things that impresses me is that he's put North Carolina into play. Even if Obama comes up short in NC, he's forcing McCain to divert resources there. And let me tell you, if not only Virginia, but NC go to Obama on Nov. 4, you can probably call the election right then and there. I don't see how McCain could recover from losing both of those. Hell, even Virginia alone could be fatal.

[Jedi Master Carr]

we must have read that article at the same time. I was just going to comment on that. I agree forcing Mccain to campaign in North Carolina is huge. Missouri and Indiana are both still in play and could turn towards Obama so it is making him spend money at the worse.

[Cat X]

And here is Joe Biden and Sarah Palin answering the same question

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4493093n#ccmm

[Yog]

^^ My brain hurts after watching that. While Biden is able to come up with specific examples and explain what those decisions were about, Palin runs in circles with her trademarked generalised non answers. I think the difference between the two VP candidates will come out broad as daylight in the debate.


Senate passed the Bailout bill 74-25, finally showing some leadership.

Here is Obama's speech from the Senate floor:
Part 1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMMJew-qNWM) - Part 2 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7OOv9Hf38A).

[Yog]

Polls!

Daily trackings have been quite stable for the last couple days, except for Gallup that is down to +4 Obama. For some reason, Gallup swings up and down like a sinus curve, while the other polls don't show the same trend. On average, Obama is +5.7 in 10 national polls.

New CBS/NYTimes poll - Obama up by 9 nationally (http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/sepd-elec08.pdf)
Obama 50 McCain 41

Research 2000 has a +10 lead.


The real changes are in the battlegrounds and swing states..

Quinniapiac
Florida: Obama 51 - McCain 43
Ohio: Obama 50 - McCain 42
Pennsylvania: Obama 54 - McCain 39

Wait, I know what you guys are thinking. "Oh, Yog you lunatic viking. Those are crazy outlier polls. +8 in Florida, +8 in Ohio, +15 in Pennsylvania, hahaha. Those are not even close!"

Well, you're right, but then I saw this:

CNN/TIME polls (http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/more-data-shows-obama-battleground-strength/)
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44

CLEARLY, something is going on here. Obama is gaining big in battleground states. A lot of these results are shocking.

Let's look at some more numbers!

Insider Advantage
FL: Obama 49 - McCain 46
NV: Obama 48 McCain 47

Suffolk, FL: O46, M42
Strategic Vision, WI: O 49, M40

If it was not crystal clear before, it should be now.. Obama is in the lead in Florida, and is gaining grounds in CRITICAL swing states! Let's summarise:

National polls: 10 polls, averaging Obama +5.7
Florida: 4 polls averaging Obama +4.75
Pennsylvania: 3 polls averaging Obama +9.6
Nevada: 2 polls averaging Obama +2.5
Ohio: 2 polls averaging Obama +4.5

McCain is also in trouble in Virginia and Missouri.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Okay Yog, I challenge you to a third bet!

You say Palin will tank tonight? I'm feeling pessimistic. I think maybe somehow she keeps her dopey head above water.

So, if the pundits say bad things, you win, if they say good things, I win. The loser has to be the Iraqi Information Minister, the new spokeman for the McCain campaign for 24 hours. You can also use polls to judge if she tanked or not.

What say ye?

[Yog]

*sigh* I accept. Good thing you're not asking me to be a Palin fanatic, because I don't think it would be good for mine or others mental health... :x

McCain campaign Baghdad Bob I could do though. I'll be Tucker Bounds II.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Hey, I didnt do a bad job of being a Palin supporter! I think I rather highlighted how truly absurd one is :D

Scary thing was, all that dribble posted was what they actually say. You just cant make that stuff up

[Yog]

Yeah, although, whoever loses needs to try being sincere about the support. :)

... and here is an avatar http://mneh.org/pics/avatar/mccain-avatar.jpg

[Jedieb]

This could be the best bet yet!:crack

Like Yog said, Obama's RCP average is up to 5.6. That's the biggest it's been since his convention bounce and before that, late June. And it's a sizeable lead for this late in the campaign. He jumped almost a full point in a day largely because of the Battleground poll. That's the poll that consistenly gave McCain a 2 point lead during the first two weeks of the economic meltdown. Yesterday, they finally gave Obama a lead, but this morning they had him all the way up to a 5 point lead, 49-44. The polls in battleground states are really starting to swing Obama's way as well. It's not that he's going to win all of these states, it's that it forces McCain to defend more and more Bush states. It narrows the number of paths McCain has to reach 270. Wins in states like Virginia and Colorado make an Ohio loss acceptable for Obama. And the fact that NC is now in play is just horrible for McCain. The Tar Heel state should be in the bank for McCain by now. Bush won NC by 12 in 04 and 13 in 00. At the end of the day, I think McCain will pull out NC, but if he loses it, we'll all be able to go to bed early on Election Night.

I think tonight may be McCain's last stand. If Palin survives he may get enough of a boost that he'll be able to stem the tide or even gain a point or two. But if she crashes and burns it's going to affect HIS numbers. I think people are finally going to start blaming him for Palin.

One other thing, as we get closer to election day the numbers should tighten up a bit. We should finally start to see undecideds get lower and lower. It's a race to 50%. (For the popular vote, for whatever that means to you.) Obama is obviously in a much stronger position to hit that mark, but one foreign policy or personal disaster could change that rather quickly.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

This could be the best bet yet!:crack

Looking forward to see Yog do his Iraqi Miniister impersonation :evil



About polling

I think what we are seeing is finally the race going to what it should be with all the factors we have in play. The Democrats SHOULD be a mile in front. It seems people's uncertaintly about Obama was what was holding them back - i think in a lot of ways the first debate helped ease a few minds.

The unfortunate truth here is that it's been asked in the past "What will it take to get a black man elected President?". You are now seeing exactly what it will take. An economic meltdown, wars, a republican party divided with a terrible candidate and the black guy undeniably running one of the best campaigns ever seen anywhere.



I think tonight may be McCain's last stand. If Palin survives he may get enough of a boost that he'll be able to stem the tide or even gain a point or two. But if she crashes and burns it's going to affect HIS numbers. I think people are finally going to start blaming him for Palin.


Yog and I agreed on this one over AIM - Plain goofs, that's probably going to be it for McCain and nothing will save his bid. Palin may be popular with the religious right, but she's going to be utter poison to moderates, plus she's having the effect of making Democrats angry and really getting to work to oppose her.

I hope she does depth charge her own ticket, but I doubt it will happen. I'm all pessimistic :(



One other thing, as we get closer to election day the numbers should tighten up a bit. We should finally start to see undecideds get lower and lower. It's a race to 50%. (For the popular vote, for whatever that means to you.) Obama is obviously in a much stronger position to hit that mark, but one foreign policy or personal disaster could change that rather quickly.

I'm not sure that will be the case now. I think that the electorate may well now switch off and just simply lash out. Hard. I think that the only senarios we will see is either a desperatly close McCain win or a huge Obama blowout - given I am thinking there is a great deal of voters readying themselves for electoral revenge..... things will have to seriously change. Dead white girl or live white boy kinda change. And right now, I'm not sure that's gonna make a lick of difference. The economy's taken over and that just has to be bad for the Republicans.

[Yog]

And the fact that NC is now in play is just horrible for McCain. The Tar Heel state should be in the bank for McCain by now. Bush won NC by 12 in 04 and 13 in 00. At the end of the day, I think McCain will pull out NC, but if he loses it, we'll all be able to go to bed early on Election Night.

Speaking of North Carolina, new poll on that state from Rasmussen today.

Rasmussen North Carolina (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election )
Obama 50
McCain 47

.. and in todays national daily tracking number (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll), Obama gets +7 on Rasmussen.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This seven-point advantage is the largest yet enjoyed by Obama during Election 2008 and is consistent with the stable lead he has enjoyed over the past week. For each of the past seven days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45% (see trends).

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Fifteen percent (15%) express a preference for one of the candidates but could still change their mind. Just over 1% remain committed to a third-party candidate while 3% remain undecided.

Nationally, Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 52%. This is McCain’s lowest his favorable rating since June 15 (see trends).

...

Obama leads 63% to 32% among voters who name the economy as the top voting issue. McCain lead 74% to 24% among those who say that national security is the highest priority. Fifty percent (50%) of voters say the economy is most important while just 19% see national security that way (see other recent data highlights).

New polling has been released this morning showing Obama with a slight lead in North Carolina. Swing state polls are following the national trend and Obama’s advantage in the Electoral College has grown over the past week.

...

Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is now given a 65.2 % chance of winning in November (see market expectations for key states).


Edit - if the election was today, the electoral map would look something like this:

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/map-02-oct.png

[Jedi Master Carr]

which site is that from? I am surprised they have my home state of South Carolina so close. although much of the south is getting closer Mississippi is down to 8 points and Tennessee is at 9.

[Jedieb]

Every major poll today had good news for Obama. I saw his RCP average go up from 5.6 to 5.8. And most of the electoral projections have him close to 300. We won't see anything meaningful from tonight's debate until the weekend and by Monday and Tuesday all the polls will have the VP debate under their belt. Although, I bet they'll be dozens of instant polls and some Friday polls may one day of post debate results in them. I'm watching it on CNN tonight. I want to see those instant reactions at the bottom of the screen.

[Yog]

which site is that from? I am surprised they have my home state of South Carolina so close. although much of the south is getting closer Mississippi is down to 8 points and Tennessee is at 9.
I use the electoral map at RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5), and then I color the states based on poll results, usually found at 538 (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) or Pollster (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_update/) or RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html).

South Carolina is question mark, because there are at least 2 polls with only +6% lead for McCain some time ago at PPP and Rasmussen. And from what I heard, they were using outdated ratio numbers of registered democrats / republicans, and that skewed the results from what actually should have been a tie (!). A Zogby poll gave Obama a 1 point lead even. The major poll agencies / poll sites have ignored this state, presuming it's a strong McCain state, but an upset is possible. I do have a feeling it's NOT solid red. What we need is updated poll results for this state, especially now that Obama gained some ground.

[Morgan Evanar]

All very good posts about Palin. I will however, continue to play Devil's advocate because if she pulls off a stunner it will help cushion the blow.

Friday's First Republican Talking Point if Balin Bombs
Gwen Ifill is in the tank for Obama. And they'll have some actual evidence to support this. In January, right around Innaguration Day, Ifill is releasing a book about the Obama campaign. "The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama" You can guess where this is going. I love Ifill, I think she and Leher are some of the best newspeople in the business. She's clearly an Obama supporter and the Republicans will use this as spin Friday morning. I think she's got a tough job on her hands tomorrow. I think she will be more than fair, but I'm worried she may hold back at times and give Palin an easy out if she stumbles. Last week Leher actually went after both Obama and McCain when he asked them what they would cut if they were elected. Can Ifill do the same to Palin? What happens if Palin gives some non-sensical SNL type of answer to a foreign policy question? Does she ask a follow up or just let the gaffe hang out there? I think the fact that she's a woman gives her more of a license to go after Palin. Couric doesn't have a reputation as a tough interviewer, but she was able to be more aggressive than Gibson because of her gender. I hope Ifill does the same. I also hope she gives Biden some grief as well. I think he'll come off better if he gets some tough questions and gets the opportunity to defend himself.The Ifill issue is one of desperation because both parties must agree to the moderator and it was done in June or July. It's really irellevant and all the Dems have to do is loudly point out that she was agreed to by both parties.

Yet another case of incompetence by the McCain campaign.

[Jedi Master Carr]

which site is that from? I am surprised they have my home state of South Carolina so close. although much of the south is getting closer Mississippi is down to 8 points and Tennessee is at 9.
I use the electoral map at RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5), and then I color the states based on poll results, usually found at 538 (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) or Pollster (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_update/) or RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html).

South Carolina is question mark, because there are at least 2 polls with only +6% lead for McCain some time ago at PPP and Rasmussen. And from what I heard, they were using outdated ratio numbers of registered democrats / republicans, and that skewed the results from what actually should have been a tie (!). A Zogby poll gave Obama a 1 point lead even. The major poll agencies / poll sites have ignored this state, presuming it's a strong McCain state, but an upset is possible. I do have a feeling it's NOT solid red. What we need is updated poll results for this state, especially now that Obama gained some ground.

I love to see that happen because it would me my vote there will make a different. I have to do an absentee ballot because I am tennessee and I am going to turn it next week when I go home for fall break.

[Jedieb]

Wow, McCain is pulling out of Michigan! They're shifting resources to Ohio, Penn., and wait for it.... wait for it.... MAINE! This is sad on a couple of fronts. First, McCain is giving up on a major electoral prize, 17 votes, to shift resources into two battleground states where he should already be fully staffed. Also, he has no shot at winning Maine's 4 votes. What he's hoping to do is pick off 1 of it's votes because Maine awards it's votes by district. So, he's trading 1 for 17. Yep, it's getting worse and worse for McCain.

Well, the big show is a few hours away. I've also got my USF Bulls on ESPN tonight. We're at #10 and have a good shot at a BCS game if we can run the table. I'll be TIVOing the game while the debate is on. Boy, it's either going to be a couple of big wins for me tonight or a couple of crushing defeats.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Good luck, hope you get the wins!

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is crazy on his part. He is better off rolling the dice in Michigan than move staff to Maine.

[Jedieb]

Thanks!

One thing is becoming more and more apparent to me as the debate draws closer. Only ONE candidate really has something on the line tonight, John McCain. If Joe Biden has a bad night tonight will it hurt Obama? No. Just like Quayle did not hurt Bush, Biden could be gaffe central tonight and it would do little damage to Obama. The only VP that I can think of that really hurt the guy on the top of the ticket was Eagleton. You can argue that Stockdale killed Perot, but he was always going to finish a distant 3rd so I don't think that counts. But Palin could really kill McCain tonight. There a lot of moderate and fiscal conservatives that are frankly appalled at the selection of Palin. Some are just plain discouraged. They see her as the political stunt that she is. They could accept it if she were a seasoned pro, but her disastrous interviews have them seriously considering voting for Obama or just plain sitting this election out. Those are some of the voters on the line tonight. If you don't like Obama much, but see Palin as a rube who should never be standing behind a 72 year old President, you NEED to see some competence tonight. And if you don't get it, John McCain has lost your vote. Obama does NOT have that problem tonight.

[Yog]

2 hour countdown to debate.

It starts 9 pm ET.

Is there any chance she will get stumped during the debate? Well..
http://img244.imageshack.us/img244/9425/emtychairxf2.jpg

[Yog]

Live streams at CNN.com. Commentary stream, and and a camera showing the preparations at the debate chamber:
http://edition.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1


Live blog commentating at Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/29/biden-palin-debate-update_n_130197.html

[Cat X]

Here's hoping to someone sayign somethign spectaclarly dumb :D

Wow, Joe REALLY is an attack dog

[Jedieb]

It's early, but I've already noticed something that Palin is doing stylistically that's quite smart. She looks at the CAMERA when she responds while Biden looks at Ifill. Biden just took his first look at the camera when he told an anecdote about a voter not being able to afford to fill his gas tank. But for the most part, he looks right at Ifill.

[Cat X]

I'm expecting Joe to jump over and eat Palin like a raw steak in a second.

[Liam Jinn]

Oooh Biden, that was funny. "Ultimate Bridge to Nowhere" ahahahaha, get her. :)

[Jedieb]

Be honest now everybody, does she look as clueless as she has in her interviews with Gibson and Couric? I'm not saying she's winning, but she's certainly not tripping over herself. It's still early, and she can easily produce a major gaffe, as can Biden, but she's off to a decent start.

[Yog]

Be honest now everybody, does she look as clueless as she has in her interviews with Gibson and Couric?
No, she does not look anywhere near that bad. But she sure as heck does not look like Presidential material either.

[Ryan Pode]

I thought she looked like an idiot.

[Jedieb]

They're giving their final statement. I told you guys she'd probably be able to survive, and she did. Yes, I think Biden "won" the debate, but she held her own. I still think she's got a ton of interview gaffes ahead of her, but she survived tonight, and so did McCain. He lives to fight another day.

[Liam Jinn]

I thought she looked like an idiot.

Agreed. Just because she dodged questions to avoid sounding stupid, doesn't mean it worked.

[Cat X]

\\ Yes, I think Biden "won" the debate, but she held her own.

Spewing talkign points isnt holding your own and that's all she did.

All she did is prove she at least can memorise stuff. But it had NO connection to reality. And frankly, the fact she managed not to drool on herself and thence exceed expectations is a silly perspective - lets for one moment imgaine we were seeing Mitt Romney in her place and HE said the same things. Woudl there be a shred of doubt Biden utterly destroyed Mitt? Would we say the kind of ridulous commentary about "met or exceed expectations?"

This is the PRESIDENCY we are on about here, you just meet expectations of breathing and walking at the same time. The simple fact was she is astonishingly unready for any office and she made that clear yet again tonight.

[Yog]

Ok, first real poll:
http://mediacurves.com/

Biden destroying her with Independents, and scores slightly higher with his own party.

As for pundits, I hear mixed reactions so far.



Edit: CNN early polling

Who won the debate:
Biden: 51
Palin: 36

Biden's performance against expectations:
Better: 64
Worse: 14
Same: 20


Palins perforance against expectations:
Better: 84
Worse: 7
Same: 8

Is Palin ready to be VP?
Before debate (yes)42, After debate (yes) 46
Before debate (no)54, After debate (no) 53

[Jedieb]

Ok, first real poll:
http://mediacurves.com/



Palins perforance against expectations:
Better: 84
Worse: 7
Same: 8


I can't stress how important that 84%. She did better than expected, that's as good as a win for her. I thought Biden was great. No gaffes, he conducted himself like a gentlemen. He was never condescending or dismissive, he didn't give anything away. He WON this debate, but Palin did what she needed to. She didn't screw up badly enough to finally destroy McCain's candidacy. And that's what would have happened if she'd stumbled as badly as she's done in recent interviews.

I think that she's intellectually vacuous and has no business being Vice President. But I also think that description fits Dubya to a tee. And did that stop up us from electing him TWICE? I've learned that this country has no problem whatsoever electing someone to the Presidency who's not up to the job intellectually, as long as the person can come across as a regular Joe that they can have a beer with. For goodness's sake, we've elected a man to the Presidency who's passed himself off as a tough cowboy from Texas who hates the Northeastern elite. HE WAS BORN CONNECTICUT TO ONE OF THE MOST POLITICALLY IMPORTANT FAMILIES IN THE COUNTRY! How is this man a regular guy?!

McCain and Palin probably didn't win anything more than a stay of execution tonight. But I think she did just enough to get that stay. That's all I'm saying.

And I thought the best moment of the debate tonight was when Biden choked up when he was talking about his son. That to me was genuine emotion and it was a good rebuttal to the not so subtle did that Palin was making that she was some how more in tune with Americans because she was a mother of five. I loved Joe there and I think he connected with a lot of people.

Now, what's going to stick with people? What's going to be remembered? It seems from last week we remember McCain's not looking at Obiden and his angry moments, Obama held his own on foreign policy, and McCain did a bit better than expected on the economy. Good debate, but not a game changer. How will this debate be remembered?

[Yog]

I actually have to agree with Jedieb here a bit. She survived the debate, and held her own, enough to not alienate her own party base at least. The republicans are probably pretty excited about that debate. This could have been a disaster, but she remained coherent most of the time. Most people, myself included were probably surprised about her performance.

The Independent did not like her though. And she was really evasive when answering questions. There were dodged and canned responses. No substance to what she was saying. Most important of all, did Palin change the perception she is poorly qualified? No.

Then there was the body language. She looked at the camera, and that worked. She also smiled a lot, even when the topic is supposed to be serious. But that was over the top, and did not feel natural.

Biden on the other hand, had a terrific debate performance.

Question though, is not if Biden won the debate. Did Palin "tank"? So far, it looks like she did not, looking at pundit reviews and poll results.

[Morgan Evanar]

She didn't anything of substance the entire debate and the fact that many people aren't going to be able to see through that makes me sad.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Biden did great, sure Palin didn't embarrass her self, but I think she did poorly as far as debating the issues. Of course this debate won't matter in long run.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

I think we have found the new "Noun, Verb, 9/11"

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/10/obama_ad_cant_explain.html

McCain's campaign = "Bridge to Nowhere" meme is perfect. Damn Joe, I love you so much right now, because THAT'S the kind of soundbyte that get remembered and does real damage :D

[Jedieb]

I JUST REGISTERED SOMEONE TO VOTE!!! :crack

We were talking this morning about the debate. Our custodian came by and I asked him if he was registered. He said no, I asked him who he liked and right after he said Obama I said "Hijo, ven aqi!" I went to Obama's site, printed out the registration sheet, copied his license, and put it right in the mail. It's been a good morning. :cool


The Independent did not like her though. And she was really evasive when answering questions. There were dodged and canned responses. No substance to what she was saying. Most important of all, did Palin change the perception she is poorly qualified? No.
I think Yog's right. The Fred Thompson's of the world are waking up to sunshine and puppies, but I don't think Independents and Uncomitteds were all that impressed. I think many of them were surprised, but I don't think they saw anything last night that would make them change their vote or vote for McCain.

There is something that I think Obama and his supporters need to do now, IGNORE PALIN. Her moment in the sun is passed. She is now practically irrelevant. This last month is now all about Obama and McCain. I gaurantee you won't even hear Obama mention her name ever again. Neither will Biden. It's all about attacking McCain and defending themselves against the kitchen sink. Because I gaurantee you it's coming. McCain is trailing and he's going to try anything and everything he can to get back in this. And if that means digging up Wright, Ayers, Rezco, madrasses(sp?) he'll do it or make sure surrogates do it. Palin is irrelevant, she should be ignored. I could care less if she never does another interview. Her debate is over, she has nothing left to do except campaign with McCain to insure he gets decent sized crowds.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

There is something that I think Obama and his supporters need to do now, IGNORE PALIN. Her moment in the sun is passed. She is now practically irrelevant. This last month is now all about Obama and McCain. I gaurantee you won't even hear Obama mention her name ever again. Neither will Biden. It's all about attacking McCain and defending themselves against the kitchen sink. Because I gaurantee you it's coming. McCain is trailing and he's going to try anything and everything he can to get back in this. And if that means digging up Wright, Ayers, Rezco, madrasses(sp?) he'll do it or make sure surrogates do it. Palin is irrelevant, she should be ignored. I could care less if she never does another interview. Her debate is over, she has nothing left to do except campaign with McCain to insure he gets decent sized crowds.

Good work on the registration :)

Is it just me or are people on this board much more involved WITH the Obama campaign than the 2004 Kerry campaign?

Anyway, the problem with bringing back up Wright, Ayers et all is that they were run to death by Hillary and debunked as a result already. It's old. Plus...

a) McCain AND Palin have crazy Pastor problems of their own. Bring up Wright, your just begging for a Democrat 527 reply. And with Obama quietly givign 527's the go-ahead.... yeah best onot to go there.

b) Bring up Ayers.... dead end. Already shown to be guilt by association. And I think McCain has plenty of guilt by association problems.

c) Rezko - Oh McCain REALLY doesn't want to go there. Bring up Rezko and Obama will personally bring up Keating 5.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five

And the beauty of this is that - it links in directly to today's financial meltdowns! The SnL's failures are just too easy to tie to today's failures.

Keating 5 is the Obama trump card if McCain wants to throw the kitchen sink. Rezko is crap but Keating 5 isnt. Basically, if I was McCain I would be desperatly telling surrogates and 527's to STFU about Ayers and Rezko. If Obama feels the need to use Keating 5, that WILL be a big problem for McCain.

[Jedieb]

JT, those are all good forms of attack for Obama.

But now for something unpleasant.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122300786229301597.html
If you can get through the first couple of paragraphs of Peggy Noonan's declaration of girl on girl love for Palin, you see what Palin was able to accomplish. She was able to restore some faith. Unfortunately, about the only people she jazzed up were the far right evangelicals who fell in love with palin at the convention. Because I sure as hell didn't see anything last night that's going to suddenly bring a smile to George Will's face. Here's my favorite part of Noonan's love fest;

She is not a person of thought but of action. Interviews are about thinking, about reflecting, marshaling data and integrating it into an answer. Debates are more active, more propelled—they are thrust and parry. They are for campaigners. She is a campaigner.
Curse those interviewers! How dare Gibson and Couric demand that a Vice Presidential candidate THINK! :crack

[Yog]

Curse those interviewers! How dare Gibson and Couric demand that a Vice Presidential candidate THINK! :crack
Yeah, and what makes it even more absurd, this was not even much of a real debate. The moderator asks candidates to spend 2 minutes on a predictable general topic, where they stand on a podium doing memorised speeches, and then there is a brief rebuttal with rehearsed talking points. It's next to no intervention. The format is more of a Q&A than debate.

Some comments on that particular aspect at SA:

I could say I was disappointed as well but I didn't expect much. I think "debate" is inaccurate. These events should be called "regurgitations". Until we get a moderator that isn't afraid to stick it to the people going toe to toe I don't believe we're going to see a real debate.

...

Agreed, I just came in here to say this. These debates are a complete failure if the candidates are able to go on stage and give rehearsed answers, just spewing out their talking points.

I read something before this that McCain's campaign wanted to change the format of this "debate" to a Q&A session or something. Well I'd hate to see what that looks like, because isn't that what we already have?

Total joke.


Random word count last night... Sarah Palin:
Also = 48
Though = 11
Maverick = 6
Darn Right = 2

[Jedi Master Carr]

she must love the word also:p

[Jedieb]

4 Major polls today, 4 leads for Obama. Plus, he's starting to open up his lead in Penn. His RCP lead is holding steady at 5.8. If the VP debate is going to have any impact, and I don't think it will, it'll start showing tomorrow. A far likelier poll mover will be today's jobs report. It's showing higher job losses than expected. The House just passed the Bailout bill and Bush is eager to sign it. Gee, I guess all that pork suddenly made it acceptable to all of those principled Republicans and Democrats that voted against it last week.

The Bailout bill's intent was always to prevent an economic collapse, not "fix" the economy. An improving economy would be good news for McCain, but I don't think things are going to get markedly better in the next month and that's all the time McCain has left. I think the next few weeks are going to have their share of bad economic news; bank closures, small business failures, more forclosures, etc. Unless Obama shows up at one of the debates with a Black Power t-shirt and a bad attitude, what's McCain going to do?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will be months before we see any fixes for the economy. Luckily, McCain didn't go against the Bailout because that would have scored him points, but of course I think he even realized that was the wrong call.

[Rutabaga]

*sigh*

Someone please help deliver me from Hooterville. I talked to my mother after work and had to listen to her babble about how she had found "what must be a fellow Wizard of Oz fan, because Sarah wore red shoes to the debate last night!"

:headache

I didn't watch the debate, I just saw coverage and clips afterward and this morning. And here's what struck me.

It could be argued that debates are like job interviews. Therefore, was it really appropriate for Palin to be doing all that mugging for the camera, especially the winking? And the so-called "folksy" language? And if it IS okay, is it because she's a woman? Would Biden have been allowed to act that way without any kind of comments or repercussions?

Hey, I'm just sayin'.... :mischief

[Atreyu]

Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer pretty much concedes Obama is well on the road to winning. Be aware that he seems awfully bitter about it:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/obama_passing_the_reagan_thres.html

I think the last line sums it up well:


... he's got both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament. That will likely be enough to make him president.

[Liam Jinn]

Someone posted this as a comment to a news article, I thought I'd share.

"I hope that the Democratic Party starts running a commercial in the battleground states called ABANDONED showing all the factories in Michigan which have closed and all of the people losing their jobs with the caption " When John McCain realized that he could not get your vote, he abandoned you..... which state will be next ?"

That cracked me up. :)

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Someone posted this as a comment to a news article, I thought I'd share.

"I hope that the Democratic Party starts running a commercial in the battleground states called ABANDONED showing all the factories in Michigan which have closed and all of the people losing their jobs with the caption " When John McCain realized that he could not get your vote, he abandoned you..... which state will be next ?"

That cracked me up. :)


Oh my, that's a brilliant idea. Someone get it to Obama immediatly!

[Yog]

Palin was not too happy about giving up Michigan:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said Friday that she disagrees with the John McCain campaign’s decision to pull staff and resources out of Michigan.

“I want to get back to Michigan, and I want to try,” Palin said in an interview on Fox News. “Todd and I, we'd be happy to get to Michigan. We'd be so happy to speak to the people there in Michigan who are hurting.”

The McCain campaign confirmed yesterday that it will be moving resources out of Michigan to more favorable terrain in Pennsylvania and Maine.

The Alaska governor first heard the news this morning and fired off a quick e-mail to campaign officials expressing her displeasure with the move.

“Oh c’mon, do we have to?” Palin said she wrote.

Ms. Palin made it clear she had not been consulted about the McCain campaign’s decision to pull its ads and campaign operation out of Michigan, a tacit admission that it could not win there. She had found out the morning of the debate, she said, and fired off an e-mail to campaign brass to let them know she was disappointed.

And from the sound of it, things are not going too well for McCain in Pennsylvania either: McCain Could Be Forced Out Of Pennsylvania Too, Union Chief Says (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/mccains-could-give-up-on_n_131634.html).

Btw, this is a rather funny gaphic showing the Palin's debate methodology.. :)
Debate Flow Chart (http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/debate-flow-chart.jpg)

... and McCain sure liked Palin's debate performance :lol
"How About Her, HHEHHH?!?! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0r8hhShMyZw)"

On the other hand, the McCain camp were not too happy about Palin misstating position on bankruptcy protections for primary residences. McCain camp flailing (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/3/84824/0108/623/618748).

[Cneidon Mako]

Is it just me or are people on this board much more involved WITH the Obama campaign than the 2004 Kerry campaign?


That's true, but Kerry was terrible.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Kerry made a lot of mistakes and I think that is what got people mad. I am remember 4 years ago, I didn't have much hope for him.

[Jedieb]

I voted for Kerry 4 years ago. But if you asked what was stronger, my hatred for Bush or my enthusiasm for Kerry, hatred would have won out. That's not how you win an election. This time, I have a different answer. While I miss the McCain of 2000, and don't like this one very much, my enthusiasm for Obama is MUCH greater than any dislike for McCain or Palin. That's how you win a general election. That enthusiasm has been reflected in poll after poll as well. McCain supporters are far less enthusiastic about their guy than Obama supporters. Let's be honest, there's a significant number of McCain voters that are far more excited about Palin than McCain. That's sad, but true.

New polls, same story. Obama's lead is stable, in fact it inched up to 5.9. McCain is already promising to get "tougher" next week. Look for him to be far more aggressive on Tuesday night. Which may end up biting him in the rear because McCain doesn't do angry well. And if I'm Obama, part of the way I blunt attacks about Rezco and Ayers is by pointing out what McCain doesn't want to talk about; jobs and the economy. It looks like that's far more important to voters than questionable ties to a 60's dirtbag and a possible shady real estate deal. It's just not going to be a successful strategy for him IMO, but it's still something Obama has to be ready to push back on.

BTW, guess where I'll be tomorrow? Joe Biden is coming to Roanoke, Virginia! I just picked up tickets for me and my wife. We couldn't get enough for the kids. We need to find a baby sitter for the boy and our youngest daughter. If that falls through I'll have to go by myself. I've never been to rally like this before. I'm really looking forward to it.

[Rutabaga]

BTW, guess where I'll be tomorrow? Joe Biden is coming to Roanoke, Virginia! I just picked up tickets for me and my wife. We couldn't get enough for the kids. We need to find a baby sitter for the boy and our youngest daughter. If that falls through I'll have to go by myself. I've never been to rally like this before. I'm really looking forward to it.

Pictures, please. :eee

[Yog]

BTW, guess where I'll be tomorrow? Joe Biden is coming to Roanoke, Virginia! I just picked up tickets for me and my wife. We couldn't get enough for the kids. We need to find a baby sitter for the boy and our youngest daughter. If that falls through I'll have to go by myself. I've never been to rally like this before. I'm really looking forward to it.

I look forward to your detailed report, and photos please. :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

I voted for Kerry 4 years ago. But if you asked what was stronger, my hatred for Bush or my enthusiasm for Kerry, hatred would have won out. That's not how you win an election. This time, I have a different answer. While I miss the McCain of 2000, and don't like this one very much, my enthusiasm for Obama is MUCH greater than any dislike for McCain or Palin. That's how you win a general election. That enthusiasm has been reflected in poll after poll as well. McCain supporters are far less enthusiastic about their guy than Obama supporters. Let's be honest, there's a significant number of McCain voters that are far more excited about Palin than McCain. That's sad, but true.

New polls, same story. Obama's lead is stable, in fact it inched up to 5.9. McCain is already promising to get "tougher" next week. Look for him to be far more aggressive on Tuesday night. Which may end up biting him in the rear because McCain doesn't do angry well. And if I'm Obama, part of the way I blunt attacks about Rezco and Ayers is by pointing out what McCain doesn't want to talk about; jobs and the economy. It looks like that's far more important to voters than questionable ties to a 60's dirtbag and a possible shady real estate deal. It's just not going to be a successful strategy for him IMO, but it's still something Obama has to be ready to push back on.

BTW, guess where I'll be tomorrow? Joe Biden is coming to Roanoke, Virginia! I just picked up tickets for me and my wife. We couldn't get enough for the kids. We need to find a baby sitter for the boy and our youngest daughter. If that falls through I'll have to go by myself. I've never been to rally like this before. I'm really looking forward to it.
When I was a kid I went to rally for Clinton. This was in 92 and that was fun. I agree with you about Kerry. I think most people who voted for Kerry just hated Bush. I actually liked Kerry but I was in minority there.

And oh let McCain bring up Rezko and then the democrats will throw the Keating 5 back in his face.

[Jedieb]

Biden had an illness in the family and had to cancel. :cry

Well, it looks like they're going to start with Ayers. It was in Palin's stump speech and they've got a commercial out. Lame.

[Rutabaga]

Biden had an illness in the family and had to cancel. :cry

Well, it looks like they're going to start with Ayers. It was in Palin's stump speech and they've got a commercial out. Lame.

You know, I saw that news about Biden's mother-in-law at CNN earlier today, but I'd totally forgotten about that. It sounds like she's imminent, so it's going to be a difficult thing for a few days with Biden needing to campaign during a period of mourning.

It's still headline news at CNN about Palin flinging out the Ayers card, I haven't checked the full story, but I hear that CNN and other places who have posted the story haven't done anything to refute it. I just wonder if the Reverend Wright card will be flung out again, even though it didn't work that great earlier in the campaign season. And if Reverend Wright IS brought up again, then I want to see everyone post the video of Palin being blessed by the witch doctor, and her later saying very positive and admiring things about him.

This has finally, totally completed the destruction of the McCain of 2000. He had earlier vowed to keep this a respectful, positive campaign. Now that he's reached desperation point, he's thrown that vow out the window, and is using the same freaking textbook that was used against him 8 years ago. My biggest fear is seeing what their version of Willie Horton will be. But my biggest hope is that the American electorate will recognize it for the panicked, negative flailing around that it really is.

But it also means that we simply can take NOTHING for granted. Every vote is crucial.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Moveon.org needs to pull out the Keaten 5 stuff. I don't want Obama to it, he needs to take the high road.

[Jedieb]

It's still headline news at CNN about Palin flinging out the Ayers card, I haven't checked the full story, but I hear that CNN and other places who have posted the story haven't done anything to refute it. I just wonder if the Reverend Wright card will be flung out again, even though it didn't work that great earlier in the campaign season. And if Reverend Wright IS brought up again, then I want to see everyone post the video of Palin being blessed by the witch doctor, and her later saying very positive and admiring things about him.



Thing is, this story already has been refuted. The NYT just ran a piece where they mentioned that this was brought up earlier in the campaign by Clinton during the primaries. The NYT, Time, the Washington Post, and others ALL came to the conclusion there's nothing there except a few times the two crossed paths on eduction issues in Chicago. Obama's best quote on the matter refers to the fact that he was 8 when Ayers was part of the Weathermen. The good news is that Obama has experience dealing with this from the primaries, they should be able to knock it down again.

[Rutabaga]

It's still headline news at CNN about Palin flinging out the Ayers card, I haven't checked the full story, but I hear that CNN and other places who have posted the story haven't done anything to refute it. I just wonder if the Reverend Wright card will be flung out again, even though it didn't work that great earlier in the campaign season. And if Reverend Wright IS brought up again, then I want to see everyone post the video of Palin being blessed by the witch doctor, and her later saying very positive and admiring things about him.



Thing is, this story already has been refuted. The NYT just ran a piece where they mentioned that this was brought up earlier in the campaign by Clinton during the primaries. The NYT, Time, the Washington Post, and others ALL came to the conclusion there's nothing there except a few times the two crossed paths on eduction issues in Chicago. Obama's best quote on the matter refers to the fact that he was 8 when Ayers was part of the Weathermen. The good news is that Obama has experience dealing with this from the primaries, they should be able to knock it down again.

It really has been refuted already, that's for sure. That's why it's just so dumb and desperate to be flinging it out there again. But that's Palin's MO, just keep repeating it and repeating it. It's like the Bridge to Nowhere and eBay stories...it's deja vu all over again.

Now, here'a cute picture for you, hope it gives you some laughs like it did me (btw, give credit where credit is due, it's taken from a poster at Daily Kos):

http://i207.photobucket.com/albums/bb164/Rutabaga64/electiontrains.jpg

[Yog]

^^ hahahahaha

On a similar note.. :)

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/comparison.jpg


.. and here is SNL's version of the Palin debate:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/04/tina-fey-as-sarah-palin-i_n_131964.html

[Rutabaga]

The SNL version of the debate was hilarious :lol.

There is FINALLY an extensive debunking of the Obama-Ayers association at CNN:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/05/fact-check-is-obama-palling-around-with-terrorists/

And this is basically the final straw for me when it comes to Sarah Palin: according to her, I'm going to hell since I don't support her. And so is the woman whose quote she completely mangled:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/05/palin-misquotes-albright_n_131967.html

EDIT:

And check this out, dueling Obama and McCain rallies in Anchorage this weekend. Just see which one was more popular:

http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/10/04/mccain-palin-rally-vs-obama-biden-rally-in-anchorage-the-blow-by-blow/

[Park Kraken]

Rutabaga, that is a really accurate train comparison. Obama as a bullet train = when he messes up, it's going to be a really big mess. Biden as Amtrak = Fail. Period. McCain as a steam train = old but reliable. Palin as Thomas Toy Train = Easy to put back on track if she gets off track.

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

My sarcasm meter is busted. You're not serious, are you??

[Morgan Evanar]

Rutabaga, that is a really accurate train comparison. Obama as a bullet train = when he messes up, it's going to be a really big mess. Biden as Amtrak = Fail. Period. McCain as a steam train = old but reliable. Palin as Thomas Toy Train = Easy to put back on track if she gets off track.Wow.

I like this one better ok:
http://img.waffleimages.com/af8adc38af60da5e51ffda77784972b2b4c27891/dune.jpg

[Rossos Atrapes]

Rutabaga, that is a really accurate train comparison. Obama as a bullet train = when he messes up, it's going to be a really big mess. Biden as Amtrak = Fail. Period. McCain as a steam train = old but reliable. Palin as Thomas Toy Train = Easy to put back on track if she gets off track.

I don't care if he's serious or not. That's hilarious!

[Jedieb]

Not nearly as funny as the original pic, not even close. But I digress...

Kind of glad the debate is going to be early in the week. This is one of McCain's last 2 chances to stem the tide without resorting to desperate negative attacks or getting saved by some October surprise. I've read that even if the bailout stems the tide for a bit, the economy isn't leaving the headlines anytime soon. There are suppose to be some major economic reports coming out in October and none of them are bound to have any positive news. And bad economic news is good for Obama and bad for McCain, simple as that. If the focus continues to be on the economy McCain stand little chance of getting back into the race.

How aggressive is McCain going to get on Tuesday's town hall? It's a format that he does well with. He could afford to do well while dialing back the negativity. He's promised to step up the attacks and make the election about Obama's character instead of the economy, but his worst moments in the first debate were his angriest. His whole demeanor towards Obama (the refusing to make eye contact, etc) really didn't play well with Independents and Uncommitteds. If he goes negative and actually throws Ayers, Rezco, Wright, and/or garbage at Obama, how is that going to play with those dwindling voters who haven't made up their minds? Mean didn't work the first time out, why would meaner work now?

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Rutabaga, that is a really accurate train comparison. Obama as a bullet train = when he messes up, it's going to be a really big mess. Biden as Amtrak = Fail. Period. McCain as a steam train = old but reliable. Palin as Thomas Toy Train = Easy to put back on track if she gets off track.


Quick point about steam trains I think you missed in your word vomit.

They take five hours to start, have to stop every few hours to refill, have a great deal of moving parts under high pressure ready to explode and are highly uncomfortable antiques from a bygone era.

Plus also the greatest train disasters ever were with steam trains whose brakes had failed.

They may also look powerful and mighty, but the merest diesel locomotive has far more tractive power, is cleaner and starts at the touch of a button. As well as having a much longer service life between repairs and maintenance. Steam trains also can and do fly apart at the seams quite readily.

And let us also discuss Thomas the Tank engine. Yes, they are easily righted. But they also are on tracks that lead to nowhere. Kinda like Alaskan bridges

Vote One Bullet Train on November 4.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Not nearly as funny as the original pic, not even close. But I digress...

Kind of glad the debate is going to be early in the week. This is one of McCain's last 2 chances to stem the tide without resorting to desperate negative attacks or getting saved by some October surprise. I've read that even if the bailout stems the tide for a bit, the economy isn't leaving the headlines anytime soon. There are suppose to be some major economic reports coming out in October and none of them are bound to have any positive news. And bad economic news is good for Obama and bad for McCain, simple as that. If the focus continues to be on the economy McCain stand little chance of getting back into the race.

How aggressive is McCain going to get on Tuesday's town hall? It's a format that he does well with. He could afford to do well while dialing back the negativity. He's promised to step up the attacks and make the election about Obama's character instead of the economy, but his worst moments in the first debate were his angriest. His whole demeanor towards Obama (the refusing to make eye contact, etc) really didn't play well with Independents and Uncommitteds. If he goes negative and actually throws Ayers, Rezco, Wright, and/or garbage at Obama, how is that going to play with those dwindling voters who haven't made up their minds? Mean didn't work the first time out, why would meaner work now?


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/5/222047/945/192/621189

OCTOBER SURPRISE!!!

Oh wait, it wasnt supposed to be the Democrats doing to to the Republicans.....

http://keatingeconomics.com

Oh my, this is bloody AMAZING. This is exactly what we were thinking he would do if McCain and Palin tried to use Ayers and Rezko. And they did.... so... WHAM, Obama goes for the throat.

I think we can safely say Obama will not let himself get swiftboated :)

[Jedieb]

The first major poll of the week is out and Rasmussen has Obama out to an 8 point lead, 52-44. That's his highest showing and largest lead of the year for that poll. His RCP average is now at 6.4. It should drop a bit as the other polls come out but he should still have a gain over the 5.9 he ended at yesterday. The Ayers attack started on Saturday I believe so it should have at least 1 day in Rasmussen's rolling average, so it doesn't look like it's had much of an effect. I expect they'll do Ayers this week and Rezco next week. If they have little to no effect I'll laugh my butt off. And if it actually costs McCain a point or two I'll probably have to be hospitalized from excessive fits of hysteria.

And the stock market dropped over 200pts this morning. But we know McCain doesn't want to talk about that. They want to win the news cycle with the Ayers garbage and year old quotes from Obama where he CORRECTLY stated that we had inadvertantly bombed and killed civilians in Afghanistan. Keep digging the hole John, keep digging. Or as Sarah would say, Keep Diggin'!

[Jedieb]

Rutabaga, that is a really accurate train comparison. Obama as a bullet train = when he messes up, it's going to be a really big mess. Biden as Amtrak = Fail. Period. McCain as a steam train = old but reliable. Palin as Thomas Toy Train = Easy to put back on track if she gets off track.


Quick point about steam trains I think you missed in your word vomit.

They take five hours to start, have to stop every few hours to refill, have a great deal of moving parts under high pressure ready to explode and are highly uncomfortable antiques from a bygone era.

Plus also the greatest train disasters ever were with steam trains whose brakes had failed.

They may also look powerful and mighty, but the merest diesel locomotive has far more tractive power, is cleaner and starts at the touch of a button. As well as having a much longer service life between repairs and maintenance. Steam trains also can and do fly apart at the seams quite readily.

And let us also discuss Thomas the Tank engine. Yes, they are easily righted. But they also are on tracks that lead to nowhere. Kinda like Alaskan bridges

Vote One Bullet Train on November 4.

Now THAT'S funny! :clap

[Yog]

Battleground poll is up now too. 7% lead for Obama, the highest ever:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/BG_100608_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

(that is +3 up for Obama since Friday btw)

Edit - and here is a graph comparing the trend of 2000, 2004 and 2008:

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/trend-04-oct.png

As you can see, Obama is in much better position than Kerry or Gore ever was. That image pretty much tells exactly why the McCain camp is in such desperation mode lately. McCain needs a huge gamechanger, and the Ayers thing is not even close. The media beat that horse to death months ago (there is nothing of substance in it either). Same goes for Rezko and pastor Wright.

[Jedieb]

Where was that graph from Yog? It does a Democrat's heart good. :cool

Well, here's John McCain on the whole Rev. Wright issue earlier this year;


"I think that when people support you, it doesn't mean you support everything they say. Obviously, those statements are things none of us would associate ourselves with,"

That was from an interview with Hannity. And in April the NC Republicans came out with a Wright ad and this was McCain's response;

"We asked them not to run it," McCain told reporters on his campaign bus in Kentucky Wednesday. "I'm sending them an e-mail as we speak asking them to take it down.

"I don't know why they do it. Obviously, I don't control them, but I'm making it very clear, as I have a couple of times in the past, that there's no place for that kind of campaigning, and the American people don't want it," McCain said.

McCain said the ad was described to him: "I didn't see it, and I hope that I don't see it."

So, how does McCain get around this? He has Palin do the dirty work for him!

"To tell you the truth, Bill, I don't know why that association isn't discussed more, because those were appalling things that that pastor had said about our great country, and to have sat in the pews for 20 years and listened to that -- with, I don't know, a sense of condoning it, I guess, because he didn't get up and leave -- to me, that does say something about character. But, you know, I guess that would be a John McCain call on whether he wants to bring that up."

The LAST person on that ticket that should be talking about pastors is Palin. She's had nutjobs in her church blathering about witchcraft, Alaska and Minnesota being Christian havens during the End of Days, and anti-semetic guest speakers babbling about Israelis going to hell on Judgement Day. The blowback on this should be a riot.

[Yog]

Where was that graph from Yog? It does a Democrat's heart good. :cool

The source is on the right side of the graph in blue text. I believe it is a collaboration of Political Arithmetik (http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/) and pollster.com (http://www.pollster.com/). I saw the grap in a forum post, so I am not sure of the URL, but it's probably on their site somewhere. Here is an older version (http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/08/polling-trends-in-2008-vs-04-and-00.html) where you can read about the methodology.

There are also some other historical comparisons, like these ones:

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/8%25-lead.png

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/50%25-gallup.png

[Source (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/50_8_and_october_some_historic.php)]


Oh, and as a Virginian, you're gonna love this... :)

Suffolk University
10/3-5/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Virginia
Obama 51, McCain 39

[Jedieb]

That Virginia spread has got to be an outlier, but it's still good news.

Throughout this campaign McCain's team has made some bad moves. I think they made a big one this weekend. If you're going to go negative, do it WITHOUT announcing it. By having surrogates on the record as saying that McCain was going to go negative and ignoring the economy they gave Obama the perfect opening for his counterattacks. Just watch how many times Obama uses the phrase "John McCain wants to "turn the page" on the economy..." this week.

If you look at Yog's charts you see only two candidates who lost after having leads this big, Gore and Dewey. And Gore should have a monster asterick that reads; Florida, butterfly ballots, thousands of African American votes tossed in dumpsters, Republican legislature, Supreme Court, popular vote win, etc...) Yes, I'm still bitter. :evil Obama is looking good, but it's NOT over yet.

[Jedieb]

Wow, the Dow has tumbled over 600 points and is under 10,000 for the first time since 04. If you're McCain, you must hate the economy as much as you do Obama. What this bad news does is push the Ayers and Wright nonsense that much further into the background. Life's unfair, isn't it? :rolleyes

[Yog]

That Virginia spread has got to be an outlier, but it's still good news.

Actually, I am not sure it is. Here is another poll published today...

SurveyUSA Virginia
Obama 53, McCain 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5&c=77


As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.
There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.
There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.
There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.


Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 10/04/08 and 10/05/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 666 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. Virginia last cast its Electoral College votes for a Democratic Presidential candidate in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater.

Whatever you and your fellow Virginian democrats are doing, it's working. A good example what volunteering / campaigning / ground game can do. Keep it up. :crack

[Jedieb]

The 600 drop has now reached 700. There's got to be some kind of mini-rebound before the day is over, I would think. Hey, shouldn't there be some betting going on around here? :evil

[Yog]

Hey, shouldn't there be some betting going on around here? :evil

Well, I have not served the punishment for the previous bet yet. Shamefully, must admit, I lost that one. :x

I'll go in Baghdad Bob McCain propaganda minister mode from tomorrow on. :whaa

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah the Dow is awful right now. I know this is because of the overseas markets especially what the Asians ones did this morning. The economy is in the gutter right now.

[Yog]

The Keating 5 video is now out:
http://www.keatingeconomics.com/index.html#research

The McCain camp response?

Keating Five investigation was 'a political smear job' on John McCain (http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/mccain-now-saying-keating-five-scandal.html)

Talk about spinning 180 degrees. From "biggest mistake of my life" to "smear job".

It's not going to wash off as easily now that he is in denial mode though. It's also not going to help McCain's credibility that the biggest bank bust / scandal / bailout happened under similar circumstances.

[Jedieb]

Mud with mud, this is what Kerry didn't do in 04 and obviously Democrats aren't going to let it happen this time around. Do I like that this is what it's come to? No, but if you take the high road you might yourself back in the Senate instead of Pennsylvania Avenue. McCain has shown he's willing to do just about anything, he's desperate. You have to fight fire with fire, period.

The DOW rebounded like I thought it would to end just around 300 down, but it still went under 10,000. The economy isn't going anywhere, no matter how much mud McCain wants to start flinging.

EDIT: CNN released a late poll today giving Obama one of his biggest leads to date, 53-45, a big 8 point lead. What really stands out to me is that 53. That's the highest I've seen Obama hit in a major poll yet. If there's no significant movement after tomorrow's debate and the mudslinging you have to wonder what McCain is going to try next, arm wrestling?

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Wow, the sheer speed polls are turning is amazing. And how the Gallup has just plain flatlined and locked on a 8% lead to Obama. That tells me that people are making their minds up right NOW. Mud flinging clearly isn't going to work this time. Voters are scared and they want answers and solutions. I also doubt the virginia poll is an outlier either - the electorate is clearly and with some swiftness in polling numbers deciding.

If all McCain has is Rezko, Ayers and Wright, three things that just dont matter, then he really is screwed. And really has we have always pointed out, those are the LAST three things he should be using, just as Obama unleashing Keating Five makes clear. The Obama campaign is clearly ready for these attacks. The electorate also just doesnt want to hear them. The latter is what's more critical, if they stop listening, then McCain is doomed.

The good thing is, no matter how large the poll lead is, you know Obama's campaign and supporters are screaming PHONEBANK LIKE WE ARE 30 POINTS DOWN!!!!!! and will do so until election day. They quite clearly are going to really accelerate, spend, GOTV, whatever until the last vote is cast.

[Yog]

Just in order to not get TOO excited, and cool down the expectations a little bit, here are some Rasmussen results:

Florida: Obama +7
Colorado: Obama +6
Missouri: Obama +3
Virginia: Obama +2
Ohio: Mccain +1

Not too excited about that Ohio and Virginia result. I think Rasmussen is the outlier here. Never thought I would say that about a +2 result in Virginia. Missouri though... wow, it's like McCain finds new states to lose in every day. Also, that is a very solid Florida number for Obama. Who would have thought a +7 in Florida would be possible. Just a couple weeks ago, I would have thought you were crazy for suggesting it.

[Jedieb]

I'm very surprised by Ohio. It's been close there for weeks now. Neither one of these guys have been able to pull away. Since late July neither one them have been able to pull more than a couple of points away from the other. (On average that is, there have individual polls with big leads, but the average has been withing a couple of points.) I think Ohio is going to be very close, regardless of whether Obama has a large lead in the popular vote. The thing is, Obama has more than a few paths to 270 without winning Ohio.

I'm really curious as to where the polls are going to be by Friday. We'll have rolling averages that include the debate and the negative attacks. If Obama is still at 6 then McCain could literally be dead in the water. But if knocks down the lead to 3 or 4 then it's going to encourage more slime from McCain. Ughh, it's just going to get brutal. I just wonder how this is sitting with Indys and Undecideds.

[Cat X]

I'm really curious as to where the polls are going to be by Friday. We'll have rolling averages that include the debate and the negative attacks. If Obama is still at 6 then McCain could literally be dead in the water. But if knocks down the lead to 3 or 4 then it's going to encourage more slime from McCain. Ughh, it's just going to get brutal. I just wonder how this is sitting with Indys and Undecideds.

Why would the lead drop below 6? No one I feel is listening to stupid smears, not when they are panicing about work, retirement or even having a bank. This is what McCain just doesnt get - ISSUES have come front and centre in people's minds.

And the Keating 5 issue is a much better and bigger one to run with, given it's not a lie.

But that's not to deny that those who are fallign for OBAMA= TERRORIST or the frankly racist OBAMA = MUSLIM!!! need a good swift kick in the crotch.

[Cat X]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602935.html

Palin is a disgusting, lying contemptable human being. This kind of disgusting language as well as inciting hatred against reporters on the day has no place at all in a campaign.

What the hell is WRONG with the Republican Party that they allow this idiot lose?

[Figrin D'an]

What the hell is WRONG with the Republican Party that they allow this idiot lose?

Desperation. They're going into "throw as much muck as possible and see what sticks" mode.

And, as much as I despise this sort of campaign tactic, I think Obama is justified in retaliating in kind. Gore and Kerry both lost because they insisted on taking the high road, and as much as that is an honorable thing, it just doesn't work in the dirty business of politics.

[Figrin D'an]

An interesting read about the beginning of the "dirty tricks" season for this election cycle:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/Vote2008/Story?id=5963751&page=1

[Rutabaga]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602935.html

Palin is a disgusting, lying contemptable human being. This kind of disgusting language as well as inciting hatred against reporters on the day has no place at all in a campaign.

What the hell is WRONG with the Republican Party that they allow this idiot lose?

:x

That was literally nauseating.

If this kind of tactic works, then Americans should be ashamed of themselves. And I agree with Fig, Obama must respond to the mud. He has no choice.

As for the independents and undecideds, my understanding is that, historically, these kinds of voters don't respond to negative character attacks. It turns them off. What they want to hear about is issues. So this type of campaigning by McCain and Palin is highly risky and will probably backfire in their faces.

I'm not going to watch the debate tonight, but it really could be the make-or-break moment for McCain. It's a town hall full of undecided voters. If McCain brings the mud and garbage to this debate, it will be interesting to hear what the reactions of the voters are. It probably won't be very pretty.

[Jedieb]

And Obama's RCP average has fallen to 5.5 today. This is primarily due to Zogby and Hotline polls which have the race to 2 and 3 points. Both Rasmussen and Gallup updated today and had Obama up big, 8 and 9 points, 52 and 51 for Obama. It's much too early to tell if the negative campaigning is having any impact. I am encouraged that Obama looks ready to throw elbows of his own. Far too many times Democrats bring knives to gunfights and as a result find themselves on the losing side of an election. But it's particulary irksome to see McCain cry foul when he's attacked. It's as if he's shocked that Obama has the nerve to come back at him instead of just rolling over.

Like the first debate, I expect both candidates will probably do well. That's all Obama has to do tonight. If he matches his performance from the first debate then McCain is almost irrelevant. He can run all the commercials he wants, but if the other guy keeps proving that he belongs on the stage and outperforms him on economic issues then McCain loses and Obama wins, period.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That Zogby poll only includes likely voters. I honestly hate that term, as how can you determine that, except by who voted in the last two elections. They don't add no first time voters into that equation. Lets say turnout is up 5-10% which is possible then you are leaving out a large group of voters. About the smear campaign yes it is bad, but the funny thing is still pales in compares to the 1800 election. Mainly that was because of the ultimate sleaze bag in Alexander Hamilton who put so much trash out there about Jefferson and Adams it was pathetic.

[Jedieb]

And the Dow has fallen another 350 points today. I doubt it'll close that low, but good lord, it's tanking day after day after day... We could end up at 9,500 today, but I expect we'll see some kind of rebound before the day ends. But the point stands, the market plunges and McCain desperately wants something ELSE to dominate the news cycle.

Town halls can be unpredictable kinds of debates. I have no idea if Brokaw previews or approves of the questions that voters will ask tonight. McCain is very good at answering questions from voters, Obama's gotten better, but he's not as good as McCain. Clinton use to be a master of this kind of format.

[Jedi Master Carr]

wow ended up dropping 500 points. I am not going to end up watching much of this debate because I have my late class tonight, unless the professor lets us out early.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

An interesting read about the beginning of the "dirty tricks" season for this election cycle:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/Vote2008/Story?id=5963751&page=1


And there's this...

http://www.salon.com/opinion/kamiya/2008/10/07/republican_smear_tactics/index.html

What I shocking - and frankly I dotn want to believe it - is the racism this article suggests. I was most surprised to find out school vouchers were originally (apparently) a way to get around desegregation. Opposition to social programs and smearing liberal / socialism because they help mainly blacks tho? That's a bit of a long bow to draw I think.

However, watching Palin basically say "Scary Black Man!!" is racism and I would hope fair minded Americans get angry and reject it.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111004/Gallup-Daily-9Point-Obama-Lead-Ties-Campaign-High.aspx

Obama breaking 50% may be a sign of exactly that.
I've never heard a republican ever give a coherent statement on why socialism is wrong, so would someone like to try that now?

[Yog]

Olbermann grilling Sarah Palin over the charcoals... and as usual, pops a few blood vessels doing so :lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtdJG7WMfSI

[Figrin D'an]

Olbermann grilling Sarah Palin over the charcoals... and as usual, pops a few blood vessels doing so :lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtdJG7WMfSI


The content in that commentary was pure gold.

[Jedieb]

A quick run down of how bad the electoral map looks for McCain.
Battleground States
Missouri +7 (-0.3)
Indiana +21 (+2.5)
Ohio +2 (-4)
North Carolina +12 (-0.6)
Virginia +9 (-4.8)
Colorado +5 (-4)
Nevada +3 (-3)
Florida +5 (-3)

These are states Bush won in 04. The first number is Bush's margin of victory, the second is the average McCain is trailing or leading in that state. This is why they've gone so negative. McCain is desperately defending his goal line in overtime. I included Indiana to show how bad things look for McCain. For his lead in Indiana to be only 2.5 is stunning. How can it be that close in a state that Bush won by 21?! Now, I don't expect Obama to win all of these states. I do expect this race to get closer in the final days. But it would take a miracle for McCain to win ALL of these battlegrounds. And Obama only needs a couple of these to reach 270.

The debate is less than an hour away.

[Jedieb]

The debate is more than halfway done, and I hate to beat a dead horse, but don't BOTH these men make Palin look like a stump of wood when they discuss foreign policy? Even if you don't agree with McCain, you can see he's knowledgeable. But having Palin on the ticket is a damn insult to this country.

Note, I'm watching on CNN and they've got scorecards and the response graph at the bottom of the screen. EVERY time Iraq gets brought up McCain gets creamed. The Surge argument does him little good, but when Obama hammers him for supporting the invasion the lines hit the top of the graph.

[Jedi Master Carr]

So what was the debate like? I am only seeing the end of it here.

[Jedieb]

So what was the debate like? I am only seeing the end of it here.

IMO, you once again saw TWO serious guys discussing everything from domestic to foreign policy. But once again, Obama clearly held his own and if you score it on points, he won again. McCain was more congenial that the first debate, but there were still instances where you could see him giving Obama dirty looks. It's as if he doesn't even think Obama should be on stage with him.

My prediction, tomorrow polls and pundits will say that Obama won again. I also noticed that it was completely different in tone than the negative stuff we've seen on the stump and on TV. They both know that Independents and Undecideds hate that. Which is why I think the Ayers and Wright garbage will end up dooming McCain. That crap will thrill his base, but it may end up killing him with the voters he really needs.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The pundits seem to think Obama did better. What was this part about that Obama did a better job spelling out his priorities? Mainly what did he say on Energy they were saying was a great point?

[Cat X]

Two things tho (And I admint I havent seent he debate as yet) that I've already seen will stand out...

McCain "THAT One" moment when adressing Obama's voting record

McCain refusign to shake hands but patted Obama on the back - DEBUNKED

Now I havent seen this myself, but they both sound bad and easy to attack.

[Jedieb]

Yeah, the "THAT One" is going to be a sound bite that will kill McCain tomorrow. And McCain also made the mistake of leaving the stage early while Obama stayed behind and worked the crowd. It's as if he wanted to wring every vote out of the people in the audience. Which is pretty smart if you think about it because many of those people will end getting interviewed for their reactions.

I'm more convinced than ever that these debates are doing NOTHING for McCain. He's not gaining any ground with voters. Unfortunately, this means we're in for 4 weeks of mud because McCain has nothing left to try. The economic news will NOT be getting any better. He's not going to get a knockout with the third debate. It's going to be pretty sad from here on out.

[Liam Jinn]

McCain didn't refuse to shake hands with Obama. He came over to the section where Obama was shaking peoples hands and talking, patted him on the back and started talking to someone else. By the time Obama turned, McCain wasn't even facing him. More of a timing issue. They already shook hands and stood together at the center of the room before that.

(Edit: Oh, well it looks like I was wrong about the handshake, I guess I wasn't paying too much attention at that point.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw4HFNj1j9U )

But, "That one!" with a old finger pointing in Obama's direction, that was odd. That had me stop for a second and shake my head. I also didn't like McCains sassy-like comments and attempts at humor.

But, I thought Brokaw was gonna start throwing stuff at Obama for going over the time limits. That had me laughing a bit.

[Cat X]

Actually Liam, you are right - Obama and McCain DID shake hands when the debate ended. What we all missed was that the "no handshake" thing was actually McCain asking Obama to shake with Cindy McCain, which he did. Now I've seen that part, I am sure there was no ill intention

It's in fact no issue at all. But, I think some Dems will not see it for what it is and run with it.

[Yog]

CNN Poll (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/08/debate.poll/index.html)

Who did the best tonight
Obama: 54
McCain: 30

Obama's Favorable rating
+4 (prev. 60, now 64)

Obama's Unfavorable rating
-4 (prev. 38, now 34)

McCain's Favorable rating
Unchanged (51,51)

McCain's Unfavorable rating
Unchanged (46, 46)

Who would handle Iraq better
Obama: 51
McCain: 47

Who would handle terrorism better
McCain: 51
Obama: 46

Who would handle the economy better
Obama: 59
McCain: 37

Who would handle the financial crisis better
Obama: 57
McCain: 36

---

CBS News (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/08/politics/2008debates/main4508430.shtml) - uncommited voters
Obama: 40
McCain: 26

---

MediaCurves (http://www.mediacurves.com/)

Independent
Obama: 52
McCain: 34

Republican
Obama: 20
McCain: 68

Democrat
Obama: 84
McCain: 10

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Just watching the debate now - yep, Obama's doing pretty good. I'd say he won it fair and square. Not a game changer, we'll all flop back to the economy tomorrow.

[Yog]

Time to take my punishement for losing that Biden / Palin bet. :x

> adjust brain with republican Kool-Aid... processing (please stand by!)..
> complete!
> downloading batch of McCain camp talking points...
> database updated!
> shortcircuit common sense and logical neural network
> corrupting data....
> installing Iraqi foreign minister spin control module....
> Baghdad Bob module installed!
> installing Tucker Bounds propaganda module...
> commencing....
> WARNING! Critical system error! Please reboot!
> Rebooting.... 3.... 2... 1....

My friends! You have all been brainwashed by the liberal media and socialist blogs. :(


Just watching the debate now - yep, Obama's doing pretty good. I'd say he won it fair and square. Not a game changer, we'll all flop back to the economy tomorrow.
I think what we saw was an example of who the commander and chief was, and who is too unexperienced to be President. John McCain shown himself as prime material to be commander in chief, who will bring us to victory in Iraq. While McCain was a legendary fighter pilot with flawless record in Vietnam fighting the communists empire, Obama ran around in Honolulu wearing diapers!

Obama can talk about change as much as he wants, but you gotta look at Obama's record, or lack of record rather. For decades, McCain has been the maverick reformer in Washington who can bring real change. He is the very forefront of bipartisan legislature effort in the senate. Time after time, McCain has shown he can reach across the aisle, and reach compromises often standing up against his own party. If you don't believe me, just ask Lieberman!

Vote McCain! A man you can trust!

[Jedieb]

The Zogby poll continues to show a tight race. It's the first poll of the day and it has Obama's lead down to 2 points which has brought his RCP average down to 5.3. I'll say this for Zogby, he had Kerry winning in 04 in both the popular vote and the electoral college. Take that for what it's worth in terms of accuracy and/or partisanship.

Last night wasn't a typical town hall and both campaigns are to blame. They both went to great lengths to negotiate an event that was as risk free as possible. Unfortunately for McCain, that's the last thing he needs. He needs something dramatic. Ties and narrow losses aren't helping him and that's exactly what he's getting. The majority of viewers last night walked away thinking they'd seen an Obama win or a tie. Also, these debates grow less and less important. The novelty is wearing off and this country has a notoriously short attention span. Hell, if I'd let her, my wife would have watched The Biggest Loser last night. I bet the ratings for last night will be less than the VP debate but possibly slightly higher than the first debate because it wasn't on a Friday. I expect the final debate will be the least watched of all 4. We saw both candidates rehash arguments from their first debate and recite portions of their stump speeches. We're not getting much in the way of new information and that's going to bore the hell out of a lot of people.

It wasn't all bad news for McCain. The focus group of Indy's that CNN had dialing their responses were asked if they had to vote right now who they'd vote for and they surprisingly broke for McCain 14-11. That's not a big enough break to make up the deficit he's facing right now but it's something for him to cling to at least.

The hand shake is a non issue. They clearly shook hands at the end of the debate and got in the way of Brokaw's teleprompter so everybody saw it. But McCain is still coming across as dismissive and disrespectful. He was better than he was during their first debate, but he still had stretches were he wouldn't look at Obama while he was speaking. And what the hell was up with that pacing? There were times when Obama was answering questions and you'd see McCain doing the Angry Old Man Stroll in the background of the shot. The lack of a true Towh Hall format kept McCain from shining last night and helped Obama. So he's now 'lost' the Foreign Policy debate and the Town Hall debate, both debates he should have won. What besides mudslinging does he have left?

And more bad news for McCain, the Dow was so impressed with the Fed rate cut that it dropped 200 points this morning. Again, it could go anywhere today but it's another reminder that the bad economic news will be outweighing the good news for the rest of this election.

[Jedieb]

4 polls are in this morning and McCain managed to knock it down his RCP deficit to 4.7. Everybody but Gallop has managed to weigh in. Most of these polls don't seem to have the debate factored in but I haven't gone over all of them. I think we're starting to see McCain get a slight gain from the mudslinging. I'm hoping I'm wrong, but we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. Zogby and Hotline are the polls showing an extremely tight race. But I'm suspicious of the Hotline poll when it has Obama at 45 points and everyone else has him 48-51. (Except Zogby of course who has him at 47)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Zogby only looks at likely voters which is what makes it look tighter. They made the same mistake in 2004.

[Jedieb]

Gallup has finally come out and I did a double take. They've got Obama with an eye popping 11 point lead! (51-41) That pushes his RCP average back over 5 to 5.1. I'm just about to go over their report but I'm pretty sure that included 1 day of debate results and the entire weekend of negative crap. Wow.

EDIT: These results DON'T having any debate numbers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is very shocking.

[Jedieb]

The Race WILL Tighten
Obama has reached a point in daily tracking polls where he pretty much can only go in one direction, down. This race will tighten as it leads into the final stretch, but Obama supporters shouldn't panic. Way too many people lost their heads while McCain was enjoying his inevitable post convention bounce. Races always tighten up at the end, and this one won't be any different. There are also some historical factors that people need to look at.

Landslides Don't Hit Double Digits Anymore
Clinton blew Dole away with the popular vote but he had less than a 9 point win (in part because Perot himself got close to 9%). In 92, he won by less than 6 when Perot pulled in almost 20%. Bush I beat Dukakis by less than 8 points. Reagan was the last President to wipe someone out both Electorally and in the Popular vote, he crushed Mondale by over 18 points. He did it with the help of Reagan Democrats. This country is so partisan that that kind of result is impossible today.

The lead that we're seeing for Obama these past few days is about as big as it's going to get. Let's be honest, there's only so high a black man's numbers are going to go in this country. There's anecdotal evidence that there are millions of voters out there that are sick with what the administration has done in regards to Iraq and the economy. They blame not just Bush, but Republicans and therefore McCain as well. But they're still undecided. Say what? Say race. This is from an Obama supporter who was canvassing in Penn. recently;

"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."

Some of these people will still vote against their wallets, some of them will simply stay home. I don't think this means that Obama can't win, I just think this reality means there's little chance he could ever win the popular vote by double digits. I still think we could see an Electoral College landslide, just not one for the popular vote.

It's way too early to start throwing out predictions, but if things continue to go well I think we'll see a 4-5 point margin. I'd really be surprised if it went any higher than that.

[Yog]

The Zogby poll continues to show a tight race. It's the first poll of the day and it has Obama's lead down to 2 points which has brought his RCP average down to 5.3.
Clear evidence the tide is turning! Take it from the straight talk express, Obama and his cronies are losing this. The American people are discovering the character flaws of Obama and shallow record. McCain is a political maverick who took on his own party and party’s interests. Obama has never opposed his own corrupt friends and he has shown questionable judgement in associating with the most shady connections imaginable.



The focus group of Indy's that CNN had dialing their responses were asked if they had to vote right now who they'd vote for and they surprisingly broke for McCain 14-11.
No surprise here, champ! ;)



And more bad news for McCain, the Dow was so impressed with the Fed rate cut that it dropped 200 points this morning. Again, it could go anywhere today but it's another reminder that the bad economic news will be outweighing the good news for the rest of this election.
Nonsense! The fundamentals of the economy is strong. The real measure stick is the American workforce, who with their enthusiasm and ingenuity will face and endure this temporary stagnation. Let's not forget the real catalyst of all this was the terrible mismanagement of the Clinton administration. They regulated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, leading to boost in irresponsible subprime mortgages. Shows what happens when Government meddle with the free market! No other politician receives as much contributions from Fannie & Freddie as Barack Obama. It takes an independent maverick and a veteran with knowhow to solve this situation.



I think we're starting to see McCain get a slight gain from the mudslinging.
McCain is merely defending himself from the dirty liberal campaign tactics. And everything he said so far is true. He is voicing the concerns of the American people.



But I'm suspicious of the Hotline poll when it has Obama at 45 points and everyone else has him 48-51. (Except Zogby of course who has him at 47)
No reason to be suspicious! Those are obvious outliers, while Zogby / Hotline are right on the money!

[Cat X]

"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."
Some of these people will still vote against their wallets, some of them will simply stay home. I don't think this means that Obama can't win, I just think this reality means there's little chance he could ever win the popular vote by double digits. I still think we could see an Electoral College landslide, just not one for the popular vote.

It's way too early to start throwing out predictions, but if things continue to go well I think we'll see a 4-5 point margin. I'd really be surprised if it went any higher than that.

Well given Gallup hit 11 point gap - I always tought that if it ever hit 10 points, the election is a slam dunk for Obama because he will need to be 6 up to combat the racism and "Secret Muslim" BS. Sad, but true I think and it's bearing out. I am guessing a 4 point margin as well on election day, which would lead to I think about 300 EV. You just dont make up that kind of what appears to be steady gap. Yes I think it will narrow and that's a good thing because it will scare the hell out of Obama supporters and make sure they work harder to get Obama elected.

Phonebank, your 30 points down!

I think that the growing realisation that the USA is in deep poo will get the racists to think "Well, a n----- cant do worse" or as you said, just plain stay at home, so the racist vote may not be as much of an influence as we think it will.

But the reality on the ground is that Democrat registrations are massively up, the Republican party has shrunk and the Democrats are almost certain to come out in huge numbers. That's the big thing I feel is going on - Democrats ARE going to vote this year. Minorities WILL vote this year. The Obama organisation is like nothing anyone has seen and it is working harder and harder every week.

There is still plenty of unknowns given those last facts, especially the ground game Obama has going. One thing you do know is that the Obama campaign, if it loses, it wont be because it sucks.


Clear evidence the tide is turning! Take it from the straight talk express, Obama and his cronies are losing this. The American people are discovering the character flaws of Obama and shallow record. McCain is a political maverick who took on his own party and party’s interests. Obama has never opposed his own corrupt friends and he has shown questionable judgement in associating with the most shady connections imaginable.

These bets are leading to some of the best comedy on this board for a long time :D

[Jedieb]

I'm almost in tears. These bets are priceless! :clap

[Jedieb]

The 5 major daily tracking polls are out for the day and Obama's average went up from 5.1 to 5.6. They all have at least 1 full day from the debate and they all reflect McCain's negative attacks. They're NOT working. Eat it McNegative.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah I think the economy is too bad for them to work.

[Cat X]

Yeah I think the economy is too bad for them to work.

Hey, McCain unleashed Ayers scary person ad today. And then the Dow drops to below 8500.

And Gallup gap is widening

As I said earlier, peopel aint listening if their wallets are hurting this bad.

[Jedi Master Carr]

People care more about their pocket books than anything. Although, fear tactics do work if certain extreme cases (like Nazi Germany) but I don't think the climate is anything like that nor is McCain charismatic enough to get them to work.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

People care more about their pocket books than anything. Although, fear tactics do work if certain extreme cases (like Nazi Germany) but I don't think the climate is anything like that nor is McCain charismatic enough to get them to work.

Obama's the charismatic one so yeah on that score McCain is screwed.

And what do people think about this prime time half hour buy Obama's done? It shows he's got a huge war chest for the final month so what on earth his September number were.... they must be staggering. And he must be getting huge amount per day too. But still, this is one awfully interesting thing to do, speaking to the entire nation for half hour with no hope of a reply from McCain.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgJ5AcsXp4M

Sums up the election rather..... too well

[Jedieb]

Well, they used Ayers this week, looks like they're rolling out Obama's admitted drug use. Former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, one of McCain's campaign co-chairs brought it up on Dennis Miller's radio show. (I read this, I'm done with Miller, can't listen to him for more than 2 minutes now.) Of course, Keating did it on his own without any prompting from the McCain campaign. :rolleyes

Anyone noticed how ugly and mean spirited the McCain/Palin rallys have become? These people are PISSED. I think it's a combination of things but one of the factors is the realization that they're are getting their butts handed to them. These attacks are jazzing up the base, but I think they're not having much of an effect on the rest of the electorate.

One poll this morning and it's Zogby. He's up 5 and his RCP average is up to 5.7. Eat it McNegative.

And the prime time ad buy by Obama is an old school tactic. Perot did it in 92 and it use to be done in the 60s and 70s when television ads were less expensive. I think it's a great idea. Obama got a lot of good feedback from his recent 1 minute commercial where he addressed the camera and talked about the economy. I can't see how McCain can afford the same, but he might be able to pull it off if he cuts some corners in the coming weeks. The media is helping him out by giving his negative ads so much coverage so it's possible.

In the last couple of days Obama and Biden have been practically begging McCain to say some of this garbage to Obama's face during the last debate. McCain is trying to keep his hands clean of this. If he repeats any of this next week it will probably kill him with Indys and Undecideds. Especially if Obama handles it right.

But I'm telling, once the debates are over, McCain will have NOTHING left but negative attacks. It's going to get even worse. Ughh.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

But I'm telling, once the debates are over, McCain will have NOTHING left but negative attacks. It's going to get even worse. Ughh.

And again no one is going to listen to said attacks. McCain just doesnt GET it. No one wants stupid attack crap, they want answers.


Anyone noticed how ugly and mean spirited the McCain/Palin rallys have become? These people are PISSED. I think it's a combination of things but one of the factors is the realization that they're are getting their butts handed to them. These attacks are jazzing up the base, but I think they're not having much of an effect on the rest of the electorate.

It's all they have left. Mean, lying, hateful campaigning. And that's all the Republican party has become too. After the last eight years, that's all they deserve to be what with the crap they will leave behind.

[Jedieb]

The stat guru over at 538 thinks that Obama's numbers are going to go up over the weekend. It looks like the 2nd debate has helped Obama blunt any damage the Ayers assualt may have had. If he does just as well next Wed. then it will amount to another wasted week for the McCain campaign.

25 more days...

[Yog]

:: flushes avatar in the toilet ::

I would like to say something serious about Zogby, as it seems to cause some confusion. Zogby uses a weighting of about 37% Republican, 37% Democratic, 26% Independent. Yes, they are polling as if democrats and republicans were equal in numbers. In comparison, Rasmussen uses 39.3% Democratic, 33.3% Republican, and 27.4% unaffiliated. If you adjust Zogby's data for that, the 1.9% margin you saw a couple days ago, would have been 6.6%. The last 4 years or so, Zogby has been proven to be rather unreliable, almost in ARG territory. In conclusion, Zogby sucks.

There are also other examples of polls messing with the ratios and demographics like this. For example, the WGU / Battleground poll used a very high rate of seniors that favors McCain. Despite all this, RCP includes those polls for their average, but excludes daily trackers like Research 2000. Obviously, you're not going to get an accurate image of the race standing if you just take an average of the polls most slanted to republicans, or don't account for high margin of error, outliers, experimental polling models etc. And that is why I don't really pay attention to the RCP averages, but look at a more modern poll analysis site like 538, who uses weighting. Those 5%+ RCP leads are not even remotely close in describing what is going on right now, especially when you look at the situation in swing states. That 90% win percentage for Obama at 538 is as accurate measurement as you can get right now.

Speaking, of swing states, looking at the status of the swing states and adding up the electoral votes is the only reliable way to understand what is happening in the race. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota are in +10-15% territory now, Wisconsin also had some high margins lately. So it is really hard to imagine how McCain is going to turn this around. McCain NEEDS to turn some Kerry state to win this, but I fail to see which state is even remotely likely to turn red at this point. Even NH is like +10 now.

In the meanwhile, Obama made huge progress in several Bush states the last month or so, in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and Missouri. ALL of these are either 50/50 or leaning Obama, and if only ONE of those do that on election, it's all over. The electoral math just does not add up for McCain. And don't get me started on some of these "solid" red states that moved into single digit territory. Some are even getting dangerously close to tossup. Hell, even Texas moved to single digits, of course, it will never turn blue, but that should tell you all you need to know what way this race is going.

Personally, I am thinking we are going to see Obama take some 340-360 electoral votes, if not more. That my friends is a landslide.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It is good to be optimistic although I won't predict a landslide yet. I could happen, especially with the economic situation.