2008 Presidential Race!

[Yog]

West Virginia: Huck 37%, Romney 30%, McCain 16%
Huckabee gets all the delegates in that state.

Note: Democrats have proportional results, which means every percentage counts. Republicans have winner takes it all system.

Post will be updated as more results roll in.

[Figrin D'an]

Note: Democrats have proportional results, which means every percentage counts. Republicans have winner takes it all system.



Eh... not quite. The Democrats do use proportional representation to award delegates. The Republicans have a mixed system of winner take all and proportional representation. The decision on which system to use is left up to the individual state parties. So, some Republican state primaries will use winner take all, others will have proportional.

[Yog]

Eh... not quite. The Democrats do use proportional representation to award delegates. The Republicans have a mixed system of winner take all and proportional representation. The decision on which system to use is left up to the individual state parties. So, some Republican state primaries will use winner take all, others will have proportional.

Yeah, I just heard from CMJ. I thought winner takes it all applied to every state, not just in West Virginia (and 9 other states?). Sorry for the confusion.

Update:
Leaked exit polls, Republicans

The Great Big Early Exit Poll Report

I just got a big pile of exit poll data.

The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent.

Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual.

Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent.

Winner take all. If these numbers hold - and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney.

Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent.

Now on to the NYC-metro-area states:

New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent.

New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent.

Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.

More or less what we expected.

Now the big Mitt states:

The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent.

I think I’m ready to call that one.

Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35.

But in McCain’s home state…

Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8.

That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected.

On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee…

Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent.

Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23.

Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19.

Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27.

A barnburner!

Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18.

Not a big state, but it's winner take all, so I'm sure Team Romney would take it.

Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.

I can't believe I have to write this, but if you're in a state that votes today and you haven't yet, go out and vote. Don't let some report on a blog discourage you from exercising a right that our forefathers fought and died for.
Source: http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yjk1ZTlmOWM3YzcyMTk1MTFjMGE5NDA5YzBjYzExOWY=



Leaked exit polls, democrats


GA: C- 25.5, O - 75
CT: C - 45, O - 52.2
IL: C - 29.1, O - 69.6
AL: C - 37, O - 59.6
DE: C - 41.9, O - 55.6
MA: C - 47.3, O - 49.8
MO: C - 45.1, O - 49.8
TN: C - 51.6, O - 41.1
NY: C - 55.6, O - 42.2
NJ: C - 47, O - 52.2
AR: C - 71.2, O - 25.5
OK: C - 60.5, O - 30.4
AZ: C - 44.8, O - 50.5

These below are first wave ...

NM: C - 45.6, O - 51.8
UT: C - 39.9, O - 60.1
CA: C - 49.6, O - 46.3
source: talkingpointsmemo.com

[Yog]

^^ use above numbers for early exit poll. Cleaning up to reduce wall of text.

[Miranda Tarkin]

Not a surprise that Obama is crazy ahead in IL here :)

[Yog]

NOTE: The exit poll numbers I posted above may or may not be accurate. Don't shoot me if they are not, they are leaked data after all.

Some more official numbers should be coming soon I hope, but if those numbers I posted are any indication at all, Obama is doing terrific!

The polls are about to close in 9 states... 8 pm EST. 1 minute and counting down.

[Jedieb]

Pay attention to the combined numbers of Romney and Huck. They're splitting the Republican base. That base DOESN'T want McCain to win the nomination. I think it actually benefits McCain to have two candidates going after the evangelical vote. If it were just one that candidate could really do McCain some damage.

When I looked at the 22 states in play last week, Hillary had around 11 leaning her way, 4 for Obama, and the rest were too close to call. I think he's closed the gap in a lot of those states.

[Yog]

Projected Winners (regulary updated)

New Jersey McCain, Clinton

Illinois McCain, Obama

Connecticut McCain, Obama

Alabama Huckabee, Obama

Massachusetts Romney, Clinton

Georgia Huckabee, Obama

Oklahoma McCain, Clinton

Tennessee Huckabee, Clinton

Delaware McCain, Obama

Arkansas Huckabee, Clinton

New York McCain, Clinton

West Virginia Huckabee

Utah Romney, Obama

Kansas Obama

North Dakota Romney, Obama

Arizona Huckabee, Clinton

Colorado Romney, Obama

Minnesota Romney, Obama

Idaho Obama

Alaska Huckabee, Obama

Missouri McCain, Obama

California McCain, Clinton

Montana Romney

[Yog]

CNN exit polls:

Alabama: Obama 54% Clinton 41%
New Jersey: Obama 48.62% Clinton 48.96%
Missouri: Obama 45% Clinton 47%
Massachusetts: Obama 48.3% Clinton 47.8%
Connecticut: Obama 49.5% Clinton 49.5%
Delaware: Obama 48.7% Clinton 44.3%
Illinois: Obama 68.3% Clinton 29.9%
Georgia: Obama 65.9% Clinton 32.2%
Oklahoma: Obama 30.4% Clinton 59.0%
Tennessee: Obama 38.3% Clinton 52.3%
Arkansas: Obama 28.0% Clinton 65.6%

[Yog]

Here is a good site to track live actual results and distribution of delegates:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22997326/
(with live video stream from msnbc!)

Huckabee does a lot better than I expected. McCain is likely to win regardless anyway. Looks bad for Romney. Obama has made huge gains the last few days, that is for sure.

Current delegate count (pledged delegates)
McCain 697
Romney 286
Huckabee 178

Clinton 630
Obama 635

[Vince]

I wouldn't keep MSNBC as a good indicator; They call states for candidates even though 0% of the votes are tallied. I know CNN does it too, but really...I would have thought we'd have gotten smarter about jumping the gun by now. And exit polls were shown for what they really were during the last general election where Kerry got a huge boost from them but ended up with almost nothing.

That said, YAY!!! GO OBAMA!!!

[Yog]

I wouldn't keep MSNBC as a good indicator; They call states for candidates even though 0% of the votes are tallied. I know CNN does it too, but really...I would have thought we'd have gotten smarter about jumping the gun by now. And exit polls were shown for what they really were during the last general election where Kerry got a huge boost from them but ended up with almost nothing.

That said, YAY!!! GO OBAMA!!!

Yeah, the results are getting pretty far off from the exit polls. They are usually good trend indicators though.

Edit: Clinton making some gains right now :(

[Zem-El Vymes]

Well I did my part :) First time I've picked a winning pony, even if it is a primary vote!

[Yog]

This is an utter disaster for Romney. It's still a two man race for the republicans. But it is no longer Romney, it's Huckabee and McCain. There is no way Romney can recover from this.

[Eluna Thals]

Good. He's a total reptile and deserves to lose. I'm not sure how I feel about trading him for Huckabee though, but I don't think Huck is going to win either.

[Mitch]

I like Huckabee a lot more than I do Romney.

And I really don't want McCain, because his understanding of economics is disastrous.

[Jeseth Cloak]

Romney would get wrecked in a general election. The sheer number of "flip-flop" ads that would be aired against him would crush him. I'm not a fan of McCain though, especially after he commented that he would be willing to maintain a US presence in Iraq for "100 years[.]" I hope Obama nails this for the Democrats.

Morgan, I promise to respond to your post and the points you made in the near future. Don't think I'm ignoring you! :)

[Yog]

Obama camp claims lead in delegates! (http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Bermans_count_606534.html)


David Plouffe, on a conference call just now, offered the Obama campaign's estimate of where they stand at this moment in terms of delegates.

"We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight," he said.

The Obama campaign's delegate guy, Jeff Berman, caught and corrected the inaccurate early reports of Nevada's delegate count, so they've got credibility on this count.

Plouffe cited wide margins in Kansas and Minnesota, as well as the fact that Obama had a larger margin in Illinois than Clinton did in New York.

[Yog]

Reports of Clinton leading California. However, estimates of delegation distribution looks quite even. This is good news for Obama, California was his biggest hurdle with all those delegates. Obama currently on target to win some 11 states, if not more.

My prediction: Obama will be the overall leader in delegates after super tuesday.

[Zem-El Vymes]

Yeah I think he's going to win the delegate fight. I'm not sure about superdelegates though.

[Erasmus Daragon]

Yeah... if McCain and Hillary end up being the nominees, we're doomed. I hope Obama takes it.

I used to like McCain a little more, but I guess that's when I was younger... and before 9/11.

[Slayn Cloak]

Edwards 26

Hehe ( I know old hat ) I love this guy.

[Yog]

State winners so far..

MCCAIN, 9 states (3 red states /6 blue states)
Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma
Total delegates: 714 (697+17) (CNN)

ROMNEY, 6 states (4 red states / 2 blue states)
Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah
Total delegates: 295 (286+9) (CNN)

HUCKABEE, 5 states (5 red states)
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia
Total delegates: 181 (178+3) (CNN)

OBAMA, 13 states (9 red states / 4 blue states)
Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah
Total delegates: 741 (635+106) (CNN)

CLINTON, 8 states (4 red states / 4 blue states)
Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Total delegates: 823 (630+193) (CNN)

Notice: The delegate numbers are projections, not actual numbers. Totals includes pledged and super delegates in parenthesis.

MSNBC estimated tuesday end result total of 1140-1150 for Clinton and 1070-1080 Obama. That number includes super delegates, which Clinton leads by 90. Normal delegates the race is dead even.

McCain looks very strong after tonight. Realistically, I see him as the winner of the republican primaries.

Obama / Clinton is what I would call a draw, a very close race. Morally though, this is a victory for Obama. Until this point, he had been trailing Clinton in the polls, and a lot of the eastern states where Clinton were expected to do well voted tonight. The momentum is clearly on Obama's side.

[Zeke]

I totally missed my chance to vote in the primaries due to school. >_< Even if I hadn't missed them, I don't know who I would've voted for, so I guess it evens out.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Obama did great really, he won at least 13 states. New Mexico is a virtual tie. This weekend we get 3 more states, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Washington. I think Obama could take 2 of the three at least. He took Kansas and Iowa so he seems to have the midwest vote going for him. The black vote is huge in Louisiana. Washington will probably be close. And then there is next tuesdays big Chesapeake primary. Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. He could take those as well.

[CMJ]

McCain can compete for, and win the center. But the right wing of his party hates him. Not sure he can win in the general unless there's a terrorist threat, like I said earlier

[Jeseth Cloak]

CMJ, why is that? I'm just curious.

[CMJ]

CMJ, why is that? I'm just curious.

Why does the right hate him? They believe he's too moderate on too many issues.

[Mitch]

CMJ, why is that? I'm just curious.

Why does the right hate him? They believe he's too moderate on too many issues.

And has no understanding of the economy.

[CMJ]

And has no understanding of the economy.

That plays some part, but it's no the majority of vitriol I've read. Most seems directed at his illegal alien stances(amnesty), and opposition to Bush's tax cuts.

A large faction also believes he'll appoint liberal Supreme Court justices so McCain/Feingold doesn't get overturned.

[Jedi Master Carr]

McCain can compete for, and win the center. But the right wing of his party hates him. Not sure he can win in the general unless there's a terrorist threat, like I said earlier

Well I think he can beat Hillary just because Hillary carries a lot of baggage herself and I think a lot of independents will vote for him instead of her. I would be tempted to vote for him over her because I just don't really care for her. Obama is a different story because he seems to get people to vote who don't normally turn out at the polls.

[Vince]

I despise Hillary; should she win the ticket, even with Obama as running mate, I wouldn't vote for her. She's pulling a name rec thing with her husband just like Bush did with his father. I don't think trying to push universal health care right now is the smartest thing to do; not with a war and trillion dollar debt, and the falling dollar.

[Byl Laprovik]

The worst case scenario for McCain is that the hardcore GOP simply doesn't vote. I can see it happening with Obama. I can't see the same with Hillary. I am pretty sure that even these drama llamas will swallow their pride to keep the republican antichrist from office.

[Turbogeek]

The worst case scenario for McCain is that the hardcore GOP simply doesn't vote. I can see it happening with Obama. I can't see the same with Hillary. I am pretty sure that even these drama llamas will swallow their pride to keep the republican antichrist from office.

Which is why the Democrats are insane for thinking Hillary. She's the best chance McCaine has got and that's just asking for the Republican base to motivate in ways that the Democrats cant deal with. Plus, the sheer volume of attack ads would drown out any message Clinton has. Still, heartening and surprisng the Rebplican nomination is looking likely to go to the most sane candidate.

Good result for Obama tho yesterday - gives everyone the knowledge he can take it to anyone, motivate the voting base and come fro behind, which frankly was the most remarkable thing in that how far he was trailing even just a week ago int he polls. He also is fund raising at a hell of a rate and now has a huge warchest advantage over Clinton.

BTw, the superdelegates just dont count at present. Their pledges are not set in stone and they can and probably will change their vote if Obama's momentum continues.

[Vince]

BTw, the superdelegates just dont count at present. Their pledges are not set in stone and they can and probably will change their vote if Obama's momentum continues.

I really hope they do. I can't bear to think of Hillary making it.

[Yog]

Romey suspending his campaign:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/romney.campaign/index.html


Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will suspend his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, GOP sources tell CNN.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is suspending his campaign Thursday, sources say.

Romney had won 270 delegates in through the Super Tuesday contests, compared with front-runner John McCain's 680.

Romney had no public events Wednesday and instead met with aides to discuss strategy to stay in the race through March 4.

"It is tough to saddle up this a.m.," one Romney adviser told CNN the morning after his disappointing Super Tuesday finish.

Although he outspent his rivals, Romney received just 175 delegates on Super Tuesday, compared with at least 504 for McCain and 141 for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, according to CNN estimates.

Romney came in first in Massachusetts, Alaska, Minnesota, Colorado and Utah on Super Tuesday. In the early voting contests, he won Nevada, Maine, Michigan and Wyoming.

Suspending a campaign has a different meaning depending on the party.

On the Republican side, decisions on how to allocate delegates is left to the state parties.

On the Democratic side, a candidate who "suspends" is technically still a candidate so he or she keeps both district and statewide delegates won through primaries and caucuses. Superdelegates are always free to support any candidate at any time, whether the candidate drops out, suspends or stays in.

National party rules say that a candidate who "drops out" keeps any district-level delegates he or she has won so far but loses any statewide delegates he or she has won.

Romney is expected to announce his decision Thursday afternoon at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, three Republican sources told CNN.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I really can't stand Hillary because 4 years ago when Kerry was running she didn't help him one bit. She didn't campaign for him or anything. To me it showed she wants to be president and was hoping Kerry would lose.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Romey suspending his campaign:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/romney.campaign/index.html


Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will suspend his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, GOP sources tell CNN.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is suspending his campaign Thursday, sources say.

Romney had won 270 delegates in through the Super Tuesday contests, compared with front-runner John McCain's 680.

Romney had no public events Wednesday and instead met with aides to discuss strategy to stay in the race through March 4.

"It is tough to saddle up this a.m.," one Romney adviser told CNN the morning after his disappointing Super Tuesday finish.

Although he outspent his rivals, Romney received just 175 delegates on Super Tuesday, compared with at least 504 for McCain and 141 for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, according to CNN estimates.

Romney came in first in Massachusetts, Alaska, Minnesota, Colorado and Utah on Super Tuesday. In the early voting contests, he won Nevada, Maine, Michigan and Wyoming.

Suspending a campaign has a different meaning depending on the party.

On the Republican side, decisions on how to allocate delegates is left to the state parties.

On the Democratic side, a candidate who "suspends" is technically still a candidate so he or she keeps both district and statewide delegates won through primaries and caucuses. Superdelegates are always free to support any candidate at any time, whether the candidate drops out, suspends or stays in.

National party rules say that a candidate who "drops out" keeps any district-level delegates he or she has won so far but loses any statewide delegates he or she has won.

Romney is expected to announce his decision Thursday afternoon at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, three Republican sources told CNN.

I just saw this on CNN. I am not really surprised. This actually gives Hucklebee a chance, since the consevative vote won't be as split.

[Yog]

I am not surprised either. In fact, I was expecting Romney to announce something like that after the disappointing tuesday results. Huckabee on the other hand intends to stay in the race for a long while, he suggested as much in interviews.

This favors Huckabee big time, although I don't think he can catch up with McCain. On the contrary, I expect McCain to continue to pull ahead.

[Mu Satach]

I really can't stand Hillary.

At last, we agree. ;)

If Romney does go you do not know how freaking relieved I and many others behind the Moroni curtain will be.

[Yog]

Some of you probably read the story about Clinton campaign running low on funds, or at least lower than Obama:
Clinton lent $5 million to her campaign before Super Tuesday (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/06/election.clinton/index.html)

.. related to that, here is another update on that story in Washington Post:
Obama Raises $7.2M Post Super Tuesday (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/07/AR2008020701154.html?hpid=topnews)


NEW ORLEANS -- Democratic Sen. Barack Obama has raised $7.2 million for his presidential campaign since the first polls closed on Super Tuesday night, his campaign said Thursday, a remarkable figure that is causing concern among supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Meanwhile Thursday, the Clinton campaign asked Obama to debate once a week, but he demurred.

Obama, riding a wave of fundraising from large donors and small Internet contributors, also raised $32 million in January.

Clinton acknowledged Wednesday that she loaned her campaign $5 million late last month as Obama was outraising and outspending her heading into Feb. 5 Super Tuesday contests. Some senior staffers on her campaign also are voluntarily forgoing paychecks as the campaign heads into the next round of contests.

Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said she also got substantial donations since Super Tuesday but did not provide a specific number during a telephone interview with MSNBC.

Obama and Clinton outpaced all candidates in 2007, with each raising $100 million.

The Obama campaign said on its Web site that $7.2 million has been received since Tuesday evening. Campaign spokesmen said they were confident the figure was accurate.

Buoyed by strong fundraising and a primary calendar in February that plays to his strengths, Obama plans a campaign blitz through a series of states holding contests this weekend and will compete to win primaries in the Mid-Atlantic next week and Hawaii and Wisconsin the following week.

He campaigned in Louisiana Thursday. The state holds its contest Saturday.

Clinton, with less money to spend and less confident of her prospects in the February contests, will instead concentrate on Ohio and Texas, large states with primaries March 4 and where polling shows her with a significant lead. She even is looking ahead to Pennsylvania's primary April 22, believing a large elderly population there will favor the former first lady.

In a sign of Clinton's increasing concern about Obama's growing strength, her campaign manager, Patti Solis, sent a letter Thursday to the Obama campaign seeking five debates between the two candidates before March 4.

"I'm sure we can find a suitable place to meet on the campaign trail," Solis wrote. "There's too much at stake and the issues facing the country are too grave to deny voters the opportunity to see the candidates up close."

Obama rejected a debate proposed as soon as this Sunday to be broadcast on ABC, but his campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Thursday, "there will definitely be more debates, we just haven't set a schedule yet."

[Yog]

Today, Obama and Clinton fights it out in Louisiana primary and caucuses in Nebraska and Washington..

In the meanwhile, McCain and Huck duel over Louisiana and Kansas.

Just in, Huckabee wins Kansas! He still needs to win 93% or so of remaining delegates to win this race though.. not going to happen.

[Figrin D'an]

Just in, Huckabee wins Kansas!

Given Huckabee's ultra-religious views and the Kansas state school board's propensity for messing up science curriculum, they seem ready made for each other. Maybe he should run for governor there once he "suspends" his presidential run.

[Yog]

Given Huckabee's ultra-religious views and the Kansas state school board's propensity for messing up science curriculum, they seem ready made for each other. Maybe he should run for governor there once he "suspends" his presidential run.

Yeah, it's astounding that a baptist priest remains the only challenger for the Republican nomination. Huckabee is btw already popular in his home state Arkansas, where he ran for governor and won, then got re elected twice.

The Kansas count is currently at
61% Huckabee
24% McCain
11% Paul

A bit of a landslide. I think, like you said he could run for governor again, or possibly he will cut a deal with McCain for VP. Would not surprise me.

[Turbogeek]

11% of people in Kansas are now proven to be too stupid to be allowed to vote.

[Yog]

Some very positive reports coming in for Obama. I think he will win all 3 states today, and Washington could become a landslide.

Edit:

- Obama wins Nebraska, tracking at 69.1% vs 30.8%!

- Obama also wins Washington tracking at 65% vs Clinton at 33.5%!

- and finally, Louisiana 57% vs 36%!

Obama is not only winning tonight, he is steamrolling Hillary Clinton! :D

[Yog]

Nebraska

Current results:
Obama: 69.1%
Clinton: 30.8%

Projected delegates:
Obama: 313
Clinton: 152
Uncommitted: 1



Washington

Current results:
Obama 67.3%
Clinton 31.6%

65.8% in



Louisiana

Obama: 57%
Clinton: 36%


.. also has a bonus, Virgin Islands

100% of precincts reporting
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Barack Obama 1772 91.8% 6 :eek
Hillary Clinton 149 8.2% 0
Total 1821 100% 6

[Vince]

Apparently, Obama also won the Virgin Islands primary with 90% of the vote. Nice!

EDIT: And I just saw Obama's speech in Richmond (Virginia's my home state by the way) and alls I can say is: "Damn! That guy can speak!"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23088836#23088836

I'd have a t-shirt that says 'Hopemonger'.

[Jedi Master Carr]

He won Louisiana today as well. He had a clean sweep of Hillary. He should sweep Tuesday's states as well and give himself some huge momentum going into the March 4 primaries. Hucklebee is just barely hanging on.

[Yog]

Obama wins on knockout! Unbelievable how he turned this race around. Now he is the clear frontrunner, and Clinton will have a hard time keeping up in the upcoming states.

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/2354/barakawinskx1.jpg

[Vince]

Love the picture. :lol

I was looking over the nifty issues matrix on the MSNBC website, and I'm kinda sad Joe Biden was knocked out. He pretty much sums up my political stances, especially on the war in Iraq. Health care Obama seems better on, but on everything else, Joe Biden woulda been my guy. I especially like the way he talked; he was like a tougher, less charismatic version of Obama. He didn't have the inclusive message that Obama had, but he was like a much smarter Ron Paul for the Democrats, at least with the way he spoke.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Obama wins on knockout! Unbelievable how he turned this race around. Now he is the clear frontrunner, and Clinton will have a hard time keeping up in the upcoming states.

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/2354/barakawinskx1.jpg

LOL well I wouldn't jump ahead yet. If he can sweep the Tuesday states than I call him the frontrunner. I think Hillary is going to have the same problem Guillian did. She is going to bank on Ohio and Texas to save her and she is going to have a month of loses and will finish poorly in those states because of Obama's momentum.

[Yog]

If Obama somehow wins Maine, one of Clinton's strongest bastion of supporters, then I will call the race over right there. How much Clinton wins in Maine could tell us if she is realistically in or out. I think Obama will win Virginia, DC and Maryland with convincing margin, which is going to put the heat on Hillary big time.

The problem with Texas and Ohio, by the time those states vote, Obama could have a big enough lead Clinton would need a landslide. And I don't think there will be.

[Morgan Evanar]

Oh please let the race be Obama vs. McCain. The candidate I like 2nd most and the Repub candidate I dislike least and will probably have their base stay home please please please.

[Jedi Master Carr]

If Obama somehow wins Maine, one of Clinton's strongest bastion of supporters, then I will call the race over right there. How much Clinton wins in Maine could tell us if she is realistically in or out. I think Obama will win Virginia, DC and Maryland with convincing margin, which is going to put the heat on Hillary big time.

The problem with Texas and Ohio, by the time those states vote, Obama could have a big enough lead Clinton would need a landslide. And I don't think there will be.

well right now they are even in delegates so if he sweeps those states tuesday, he will probably just have a small lead or 50 delegates at the most. That is because of the proportional thing and Obama would have to win every congregational district to take all the delegates. Now DC he might get everyone because I think he is polling at like 75% there. Maryland he will get most. Virginia is where it will be closer. Also I don't think there are many other states before March 4. I know Wisconsin is at the end of the month but the rest are small states that won't give many delegates. So he could have a lead but no more than 50-100 delegates. Now I do think that could give him momentum in the big three in March 4 (Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island). I am hopeful that will determine the race, otherwise we will have to wait till Pennsylvania.

[Yog]

Well, my point is, if Clinton can't even win Maine, how on earth is she going to win aywhere else? The change in momentum is mind boggling. On tuesday it was an even race overall, but on saturday, it was all landslides in favor of Obama. If you look at the results so far, Clinton has not had a single state with big percentage winning margin except Arkansas (Bill Clinton was governor there). Obama though, he does this on a consistant basis now. Clinton may have a lead in the polls for Ohio and Texas now, but I suspect that lead will slowly and surely diminish.

The pundits on CNN and various newspapers have lost track of what is going on out there. The youth are couping the caucuses, and people are fed up with the same old Washinton, they want change. Clinton is getting polite golf claps when she is holding speeches now, while Obama is cheered on like he won the superbowl or something. There were lines around the block to put votes for Obama, while Clinton had scarce supporters. It's funny, even older white women have started changing sides and cheering for Obama now.

I heard someone say yesterday "Obama is no candidate, he is a movement!", which is exactly what he is. You can't stop that easily, not even Clinton or McCain. It's like a snow ball rolling down a hill until it becomes an avalanche.

[Yog]

MAINE
41% reporting

Obama: 57%
Clinton: 42%


:eek

Here is some early caucus results found at another board:



Obama wins Rockport, carrying 8 delegates to Hillary's 3.
Obama takes Fryeburg 67 to 17
Obama takes York 414 to 225
Clinton takes Rumford 52 to 37
Clinton takes Dixfield 16 to 14
Clinton takes Mexico 27 16
Clinton takes Byron 1 to 0
Obama takes Hanover 6 to 2
Obama takes Gardiner 129 47 with 2 uncommitted
Clinton takes Old Orchard Beach 134 to 128
Obama takes Hampden 179 to 70
Obama takes Wilton 87 to 30
Obama takes Cape Elizabeth 550 to 217
Obama takes Deer Island 6 to 1
Obama takes Winterport 7 to 4
Obama takes Machiasport 2 delegates to 1O
Obama takes Ellsworth 184 to 100
Obama takes Bristol 7 to 2
Obama takes Bangor (District 15) 16 to 8
Obama takes Presque Isle 63 to 60
Obama takes Stonington 48 to 24
Obama takes Scarborough 401 to 283

...
Obama takes Yarmouth (Results coming soon)
Obama takes Lubec 28 to 23
Obama takes Veazie 4 to 2
Obama takes Paris 33 to 27
...
Obama takes Fairfield 55 to 54
Clinton takes Turner 62 to 55 (1 for Edwards)
Clinton takes Wells 151 to 122

...
Obama take Houlton (no numbers yet)
...
Obama takes Alfred 40 to 25
Obama takes Gorham 267 to 189.

...
Obama takes Damariscotta 102 to 36
Obama takes Newcastle 5 to 2 (Delegates)

[Cat X]

If Obama somehow wins Maine, one of Clinton's strongest bastion of supporters, then I will call the race over right there. How much Clinton wins in Maine could tell us if she is realistically in or out. I think Obama will win Virginia, DC and Maryland with convincing margin, which is going to put the heat on Hillary big time.

The problem with Texas and Ohio, by the time those states vote, Obama could have a big enough lead Clinton would need a landslide. And I don't think there will be.

well right now they are even in delegates so if he sweeps those states tuesday, he will probably just have a small lead or 50 delegates at the most. That is because of the proportional thing and Obama would have to win every congregational district to take all the delegates. Now DC he might get everyone because I think he is polling at like 75% there. Maryland he will get most. Virginia is where it will be closer. Also I don't think there are many other states before March 4. I know Wisconsin is at the end of the month but the rest are small states that won't give many delegates. So he could have a lead but no more than 50-100 delegates. Now I do think that could give him momentum in the big three in March 4 (Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island). I am hopeful that will determine the race, otherwise we will have to wait till Pennsylvania.

Remeber that Hillary is only close (and only just anyway) due to super delegates and those can and WILL change if Obama's momentum is sustained. It is quite possible the supers move from Clinton to Obama and I suspect they will move a lot sooner than we suspect - if Hllary loses the supers she is sunk even if she somehow swept the remaining big states. Which is clearly now highly unlikely. And with Maine clearly also becoming a Obama landslide.

The sheer margins he is now generatign says that Clinton needs a miricle to be nominated, which is looking more and more unlikely

[Yog]

.. as a side note, Hillary Clinton fired her Campaign Manager today... :lol
http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/9926/clintonsurprisednq3.jpg

[Vince]

"It was in the bag, you said! No way he can win, you said!"

"But, Hillary--"

"He couldn't possibly make it, you said! We don't need to worry about Maine, you said! We have the advantage here, you said! Well, you're fired!"

"...I voted for Obama."

"GET OUT!"

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well, my point is, if Clinton can't even win Maine, how on earth is she going to win aywhere else? The change in momentum is mind boggling. On tuesday it was an even race overall, but on saturday, it was all landslides in favor of Obama. If you look at the results so far, Clinton has not had a single state with big percentage winning margin except Arkansas (Bill Clinton was governor there). Obama though, he does this on a consistant basis now. Clinton may have a lead in the polls for Ohio and Texas now, but I suspect that lead will slowly and surely diminish.

The pundits on CNN and various newspapers have lost track of what is going on out there. The youth are couping the caucuses, and people are fed up with the same old Washinton, they want change. Clinton is getting polite golf claps when she is holding speeches now, while Obama is cheered on like he won the superbowl or something. There were lines around the block to put votes for Obama, while Clinton had scarce supporters. It's funny, even older white women have started changing sides and cheering for Obama now.

I heard someone say yesterday "Obama is no candidate, he is a movement!", which is exactly what he is. You can't stop that easily, not even Clinton or McCain. It's like a snow ball rolling down a hill until it becomes an avalanche.

well that is what I was arguing about momentum :) About Ohio and Texas this is what the pundits were saying this morning. I am actually hoping it does get over March 4th because really I don't want the democrats fighting till August.. I was hoping the republican would but that is another matter :p

[Yog]

Here is an interview with Obama on 60 minutes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHe8N5hL0Wo&feature=user

[Yog]

.. another disaster day for Clinton in the making! :dance

DC and Virginia has been called. Exit polls for all 3 states today varies from 2:1 to 3:1 ratio in favor of Obama.

Mike Henry, deputy campaign manager for Hillary Clinton has resigned.. (another one in the campaign staff. Patti Solis Doyle stepped down on Sunday.)

[Jedieb]

The wife and I voted on our way to our oldest daughter's PTA show. She voted for Hillary, I voted for Obama. She's pretty dissapointed I didn't vote her way considering today's her birthday. We got the kids choosing sides. The boy and I went with Obama, the girls went with their Mommy and Hillary. The girls know Obama as the guy who said; "I may be skinny, but I'm tough!"

Obama has a ton of momentum and he needs it before they get to Clinton's firewall; Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. I think Obama needs to either close the big leads that Hillary has in those states so that even if she wins them she doesn't pull in a large number of delegates or pull out a surprise in one of them. Those states are loaded with delegates and Clinton is counting on them. The last time I looked she had big leads in all 3, especially Pennsylvania. What a big month for Obama can do is significantly cut into her leads in those states. If she continues to lose big this month she's going to need big wins to keep Obama from 2,025 so she can pull it out on the floor of the convention.

McCain is actually leading Huckabee in VA right now. If Huckabee can't win in VA then whatever slim hopes he had have basically disappeared. He'll start getting pressure from the party to drop out so they can focus their time, money, and energy into ripping Hillary and Obama.

[Jedieb]

Limpaugh: I'm McCain's 'most valuable asset'
Posted: 05:10 PM ET


Limpaugh has been highly critical of McCain, but on Tuesday the talk show host said he is actually doing the Arizona senator a favor.
(CNN) — He's aggressively targeted John McCain ever since the Arizona senator began his meteoric rise in the polls, but conservative talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh said Tuesday he may actually be the Arizona senator's "most valuable asset."

Commenting on the mainstream media's fixation with his feelings about McCain, Limpaugh said there may be more to his criticisms than meets the eye.

"If I really wanted to torpedo McCain, I would endorse him," Limpaugh said on his radio show. "Because that would send the independents and liberals who are going to vote for him running away faster than anything."

"What people don't realize is that I am doing McCain the biggest favor that can be done for him by staying out of this," he continued. "If I endorsed him thoroughly and with passion, that would end the independents and moderates, because they so despise me and they so hate me."

Limpaugh, along with several other prominent conservative radio hosts, have long spoken out against the Arizona senator over his stances on a range of issues and his history of working with Democrats on issues such as immigration and campaign finance reform.

Limpaugh's attacks in particular got so heated that former Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole wrote the talk-show host last week defending McCain — calling him a "mainstream conservative" who supported the party on critical votes during Dole's time as the Senate Republican leader."

Limpaugh later said of the letter that McCain was "manipulating" Dole.

Yet despite the fiery rhetoric, Limbaugh on Monday suggested members of the media weren't digging deep enough into his comments.

"Couldn't it be said, if somebody wanted to…that I am secretly supporting McCain, because I secretly do want him to win, but I know full well that if I come out and endorse him, he's cooked?" Limpaugh asked. "Who may be in this whole kit and caboodle, this who shebang, the most valuable asset McCain has?"

"Me."

You can now add delusional to this fool's resume. Now that the handwriting's on the wall and Limpaugh sees his best effort's had no effect on the race he still wants to make himself relevant. Yeah, if you suddenly fell in love with McCain I'd lose complete respect for one of the few Republicans I admire and respect. Go pop some Oxy Limpy.


Oh please let the race be Obama vs. McCain. The candidate I like 2nd most and the Repub candidate I dislike least and will probably have their base stay home please please please.
That's pretty much the way I feel, especially about McCain. Yes, he's more conservative than I'd like on many issues, and I detest the way he rolled over for Bush these last few years, especially on Iraq. But I've always respected McCain for having the guts to look at the worst of his party and challenge and rebuke them. Everything from Campaign reform to Immigration, he's often challenged his party's leaders to fight for what he believes. And unlike the two draft dogers in the Oval Office, he didn't look for the easy way out when his country was at war. But make no mistake, he's better off running against Hillary than Obama. Obama will do better against the independent's that fuel McCain than Hillary would. The evangelicals that McCain dared to criticize years ago aren't going to forget their dislike for McCain, no matter how much he tries to suck up to them now. And if they don't have a Clinton to vote against many of them will stay home clutching their Bibles this November.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Obama can rack up the delegates between tonight and next week's two contests of Wisconsin and Hawaii. He needs to take that momentum in winning one of the big two on March 4. Ohio is probably going to be the easiest, since the Latino vote will be such a big factor in Texas.

[Jedieb]

I just saw something pretty screwed up on CNN. It's quite possible that NEITHER Obama or Clinton are going to hit that magic number of 2,025 delegates before the convention. Both of them could win out, I repeat, WIN OUT from here to the convention and still NOT get to 2,025. Because of the system of proportional delegates neither one of these candidates may be able to put the other away no matter how many states they win. Obama has won 21 states to Hillary's 10 yet he's only ahead by less than 50 delegates. I'm afraid it's going to come down to those damn Superdelegates. I think that's where Hillary may have a distinct edge. And if she wins the nomination because of perceived back door deals at the convention you're going to have a lot of dissapointed and ticked off Democrats. Many of whom may decide to stay home in November.

[Yog]

On that note, delegate estimates for DC: 13-10 Obama. Of Clinton's delegates: 1 pledged, 9 Super. That's a horrible flawed and corrupt system. The problem is, these are super delegates that pledged their support months ahead of time when Clinton was the front runner. While they can change their mind at any time, it makes a mockery of the election process.

If super delegates end up voting opposite way of pledged delegates and Clinton wins because of that, it would be a disaster for the democrats and democracy overall. It's hard for me to believe DNC would be that suicidal though.

Here are some numbers showing difference in voter participation between democrats and republicans in DC:

Obama 77,432 72%
Clinton 24,563 23%
McCain 3,425 3%
Huckabee 874 1%
Paul 437 0%
Romney 308 0%
(uncommitted) 262 0%

And here are the results of voting so far:

DC 98% reported
Obama 75%
Clinton 24%

MD 92% reported
Obama 60%
Clinton 37%

VA 99% reported
Obama 64%
Clinton 35%

Another day of landslides in favor of Obama!

[Yog]

Here is another amusing statistic:

States won with 60% or more of the vote

Barack Obama: 12 States + DC
Idaho (79%)
Alaska (75%)
District of Columbia (75%)
Kansas (74%)
Washington (68%)
Nebraska (68%)
Minnesota (67%)
Colorado (67%)
Georgia (67%)
Illinois (65%)
Virginia (64%)
North Dakota (61%)
Maryland (60%)

Hillary Clinton: 1 State
Arkansas (70%)

.. and here is something slightly related to what I posted about the voter turnout in DC:


If even half the Hillary voters go for Obama in the general Virginia will be an Obama monsterkill. With 97% reporting, Obama managed to get 149,000 more votes than the entire Republican field, combined. That completely blows my mind. In a 'red state'.

People wondering if Obama has any leverage against the "Big Party Machine", there's your goddamned leverage.

Obama's victory speech yesterday :D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrERVKkFSQ4

[Turbogeek]

Here is another amusing statistic:

States won with 60% or more of the vote

Barack Obama: 12 States + DC
Idaho (79%)
Alaska (75%)
District of Columbia (75%)
Kansas (74%)
Washington (68%)
Nebraska (68%)
Minnesota (67%)
Colorado (67%)
Georgia (67%)
Illinois (65%)
Virginia (64%)
North Dakota (61%)
Maryland (60%)

Hillary Clinton: 1 State
Arkansas (70%)

.. and here is something slightly related to what I posted about the voter turnout in DC:


If even half the Hillary voters go for Obama in the general Virginia will be an Obama monsterkill. With 97% reporting, Obama managed to get 149,000 more votes than the entire Republican field, combined. That completely blows my mind. In a 'red state'.

People wondering if Obama has any leverage against the "Big Party Machine", there's your goddamned leverage.
Obama's victory speech yesterday :D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrERVKkFSQ4

See, with the sheer size of Obama's victories actually getting bigger and his momentum beginning to really run away, Super delegates who thought Hillary was the only choice will have to rethink. Obama is quite clearly not just likeable but able to motivate the base and get people to vote in huge numbers plus able to win in states you just wouldnt think were possible. He's crossing boundaries and reaching out to groups that on first glance you wouldnt think would be a lock.

He's also getting first timevoters out and enthusiastic, the independant voters are almost certainly a lock for him and Republicans would feel that he's a guy they can vote for. It's now very clear he's the Democrats best chance full stop.

I'm pickign Texas as Hillary's last chance. If she doesnt win convincingly there, she's out. I am starting to doubt she'll make it that far, the momentum Obama is building is amazing - even to the point Obama is being talked about here daily by ex-pats.

[Yog]

.. thanks to Turbogeek for alerting me about a rather interesting post at SA:


Okay, I've just crunched the numbers to see how things play out from here on.

Using Wiki as a source, Obama has 1063 pledged delegates to Clinton's 936. Here's the delegate count from here on out:


State Delegates
Hawaii 20
Wisconsin 74
Rhode Island 21
Vermont 15
Wyoming 12
Mississippi 33
Guam 4
Indiana 72
West Virginia 28
North Carolina 115
Kentucky 51
Oregon 52
Montana 16
South Dakota 15
Puerto Rico 55
Total 583

Ohio 141
Texas 193
Pennsylvania 158
Total 492


Assuming the rather unlikely scenario that Obama and Clinton split those 583 other delegates, Clinton will need to win TX/OH/PA by 63%-37% to win the delegate count.

If those states break 60-40 for Obama (a much more likely scenario given the current momentum and, well, HI/NC/MS), she'll have to win 75% of the delegates in the Big 3 to tie up.

[CMJ]

Obama will be the Democratic nominee I'm nearly certain. Don't count McCain out totally in the General, but really his time was eight years ago. I wish he could've defeaed W back in 2000 - he would've annhilated Gore and the USA would be in such a better place IMHO.

McCain could've defeated Clinton in another 280-260 type of Electoral vote scenario. I think the only way he beats Obama is if there's a terrorist crisis in September/October and people go with the tried and true military guy.

[Jedieb]

Obama will be the Democratic nominee I'm nearly certain. Don't count McCain out totally in the General, but really his time was eight years ago. I wish he could've defeaed W back in 2000 - he would've annhilated Gore and the USA would be in such a better place IMHO.

McCain could've defeated Clinton in another 280-260 type of Electoral vote scenario. I think the only way he beats Obama is if there's a terrorist crisis in September/October and people go with the tried and true military guy.

I'm a yellow dog Democrat, but I share Court's sentiments on the 2000 election. I wouldn't have voted for McCain, but I could have tolerated a McCain Presidency. And I honestly believe that without Cheney and Bush, Iraq wouldn't have been invaded. We may have toughened up sanctions, bombed the crap out of Baghdad, or outright assasinated Sadaam, but the war wouldn't have happened and we'd be better off right now.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/02/13/king.superdelegates.cnn

There's a videoe of the CNN delegate breakdown I saw last night. It's probably going to come down to the Superdelegates. The Democrats came up with Superdelegates after McGovern was nominated in 72 because they wanted a way for the party bosses to still be able to keep the party from nominating someone "unelectable." Your Congressman and governor make up some of these Superdelegates. Unfortunately, they don't have to follow their district's or state's results, they can vote for who they want.

McCain can do well with Independents in a general election, the question is, can he outduel Obama. I think he can win more of that vote than Hillary can, but no matter who he faces, he's going to lose some Evangelicals. That's probably going to cost him a general election.

[Cat X]

McCain could've defeated Clinton in another 280-260 type of Electoral vote scenario. I think the only way he beats Obama is if there's a terrorist crisis in September/October and people go with the tried and true military guy.

Yog and I were talking that very senario and I'm of the opinion that if there was say a terrorist attack in that time frame then I would expect the Republicans to be routed. They have been staking their house on the terrorism angle for so long and crying they are the ones keeping America safe, plus the untold amount of money squandering for Iraq and other misadventures that the potential for a furious backlash is there. The "You DIDNT keep us safe!!!" angle.

Plus, Obama's real strength is in projecting a calm and level headed image - I think it's one people can and will go for if there was a major incident.

I'm very surprised and heartened that what appears to be an acceptible not quite loony Rebublican nominee has emerged but more than that a genuinely different and compelling Democrat one is emerging who has a hope of being not only nominated but actually winning the Presidency.

There's going to be such a sigh of relief when that idiot Bush is gone, no matter if it's McCain or Obama - or hell even Clinton - who replaces.

[CMJ]

McCain could've defeated Clinton in another 280-260 type of Electoral vote scenario. I think the only way he beats Obama is if there's a terrorist crisis in September/October and people go with the tried and true military guy.

Yog and I were talking that very senario and I'm of the opinion that if there was say a terrorist attack in that time frame then I would expect the Republicans to be routed. They have been staking their house on the terrorism angle for so long and crying they are the ones keeping America safe, plus the untold amount of money squandering for Iraq and other misadventures that the potential for a furious backlash is there. The "You DIDNT keep us safe!!!" angle.

Plus, Obama's real strength is in projecting a calm and level headed image - I think it's one people can and will go for if there was a major incident.

I'm very surprised and heartened that what appears to be an acceptible not quite loony Rebublican nominee has emerged but more than that a genuinely different and compelling Democrat one is emerging who has a hope of being not only nominated but actually winning the Presidency.

There's going to be such a sigh of relief when that idiot Bush is gone, no matter if it's McCain or Obama - or hell even Clinton - who replaces.

We tend to rally around the flag. And McCain is seen as tougher on Islamist findamentalism than even Bush. He'd benefit, I have no doubt.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Obama will be the Democratic nominee I'm nearly certain. Don't count McCain out totally in the General, but really his time was eight years ago. I wish he could've defeaed W back in 2000 - he would've annhilated Gore and the USA would be in such a better place IMHO.

McCain could've defeated Clinton in another 280-260 type of Electoral vote scenario. I think the only way he beats Obama is if there's a terrorist crisis in September/October and people go with the tried and true military guy.

I'm a yellow dog Democrat, but I share Court's sentiments on the 2000 election. I wouldn't have voted for McCain, but I could have tolerated a McCain Presidency. And I honestly believe that without Cheney and Bush, Iraq wouldn't have been invaded. We may have toughened up sanctions, bombed the crap out of Baghdad, or outright assasinated Sadaam, but the war wouldn't have happened and we'd be better off right now.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/02/13/king.superdelegates.cnn

There's a videoe of the CNN delegate breakdown I saw last night. It's probably going to come down to the Superdelegates. The Democrats came up with Superdelegates after McGovern was nominated in 72 because they wanted a way for the party bosses to still be able to keep the party from nominating someone "unelectable." Your Congressman and governor make up some of these Superdelegates. Unfortunately, they don't have to follow their district's or state's results, they can vote for who they want.

McCain can do well with Independents in a general election, the question is, can he outduel Obama. I think he can win more of that vote than Hillary can, but no matter who he faces, he's going to lose some Evangelicals. That's probably going to cost him a general election.

I really think Dean and the other Democrat leaders will do some arm twisting to stop the superdelegates from voting against Obama, if Obama has more pledged delegates. Dean has basically said that if this isn't decided by April then they will have to sit down and get it decided. I also agree with Court on a terrorist attack. If one happened I bet McCain would win.

[Crusader]

If another terrorist attack had happened Bush would ask the senat for emergency powers. In the end none of them would win till Bush declares the state of emergency as over.

[Yog]

Romney is now endorsing McCain, urging his delegates to support him:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/14/america/campaign.php

Huckabee might as well just drop out now:


By The Associated Press's count, McCain has 843 delegates. Romney's 280 would put him within 68 of reaching the 1,191 delegates needed for nomination.

This means McCain can save energy and campaign resources, aiming the artillery on the democrats..

[Jedieb]

We just had our primary this week. Any time any of my students ask me who I vote for I never hesitate to tell them. I don't look at it as an opportunity to pump up my candidate, just a chance to get them talking about something other than Solja Boy. I was really surprised by some of the reactions I got when I said Obama's name. For some reason, a lot of these kids view him as "cool." White kids were just as enthusiastic about him as any of my black students.

We were working on a writing prompt about the branches of government so I'd point out that 3 of the 4 remaining candidates wre memebers of Congress. Aside from the reaction to Obama the only other candidate that even registered with kids was Hillary. For the most part, it was a negative reaction. I could hear some echoes of their parents; "all she wants is power," "ewww," etc. Whenever I mentioned McCain he barely registered a response. Even when I complemented him by saying things like; "He's a senator from Arizona and a man I really respect." For the most part, my students acted like they had no idea who I was talking about.

[Yog]

Those kids are smarter than many grown ups.. :lol

[General Dan]

It will be interesting to see who McCain taps for veep, since he'll actually be the one running the country if McCain wins.

[Yog]

Sounds like Clinton is prepared for a messy fight for delegates at DNC no matter what happens:

http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/nation/ny-usdems175581381feb17,0,6151316.story

[Figrin D'an]

Obama came up big with a win in Wisconsin (my home state) this evening. Although it doesn't have the delegate count that states like Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania have, it's really a turning point type of win for Obama (as it could have been for Clinton) because much of the state is working middle class and has a tendency to be very independent when it comes to elections. The state also, for better or worse, has an overwhelming caucasian majority, and the fact that Obama actually carried a majority with white voters in the state (the first state thus far that he has done this in) says volumes about how his campaign has really picked up momentum heading into the final big primaries.

McCain also did very well in Wisconsin, and moved that much closer to the inevitable nomination for the Republicans.

[Yog]

The best part of this victory is how the polls said prior to the election it would be a narrow race, but ended up like 58% - 41%. I hope Obama carries the momentum into Texas and Ohio. I think those polls are exaggerating Clinton's support as well. Now we will see some fierce campaigning in those two states to turn it around.

Huckabee should just drop out. It is approaching the point where it's getting mathematically impossible to win.

[Turbogeek]

The best part of this victory is how the polls said prior to the election it would be a narrow race, but ended up like 58% - 41%. I hope Obama carries the momentum into Texas and Ohio. I think those polls are exaggerating Clinton's support as well. Now we will see some fierce campaigning in those two states to turn it around.

Huckabee should just drop out. It is approaching the point where it's getting mathematically impossible to win.

It really is the size of Obama's victories and the speed of the poll turnarounds that are amazing. Wasnt Clinton leading polling wise in quite afew states before Super Tuesday that Obama has since had big landslides in? Hawaii was yet another incredible landslide, somethign like 75-25. And the size of the Democrat turnouts is huge, setting records almost everywhere.

Obama wasnt supposd to be anywhere near as close as what he was on Super Tuesday and he wasnt supposed to carry every single state by big margins from then on. If anything, I dont think we have seen just how much the tide is running in Obama's favor, I just cant see Texas going Clinton in anything other than super tight. Who would have said that was her best hope a month ago?? It is however more likely Obama will win, the question is how big. But really, ANY size win in Texas will signal the end of Clinton.

Ohio swung 5% in a week and looks to be still swinging hard. Clinton still leads there but she's only got two weeks with a opponent just gettign stronger.

As well, Obama by any reckoning is the Democrat frontrunner. He holds the most delegates by at least 100, maybe 200 (including Clinton pledged super delegates), he's gaining super delegates, not even the disputed Michigan and Florida primaries can be added to Clinton's total to top Obama.

Obama is now up in delegates 1077 to 927 according to CNN

And as far as popular vote goes...

Obama: 10,774,345
Clinton: 10,531,336

Total Dem Turnout: 22,472,822
Total Rep Turnout: 14,693,862

Clinton has to win huge in Ohio and Texas, I no longer see how she possibly can.

Now the Republican nomination is as good as settled, I see McCain seems to tthink he'll be facing Obama. I bet he would prefer Clinton tho!

Anyone want to have a guess on VP nods for the candidates?

[CMJ]

It will be interesting to see who McCain taps for veep, since he'll actually be the one running the country if McCain wins.

Not unless he passes away in office.

[Sam]

I have to believe that, given his advanced age, that was the implication.

[CMJ]

I mean he is older - but I have 3 grandparents older than he is. He isn't THAT old.

[Yog]

It does not necessarily have to be that dramatic. Depending on the physical condition, it may limit the amount of workload he can do, so he will have to delegate responsibilities to the VP.

[Vince]

It takes all kinds...:

http://thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html

[Cat X]

It takes all kinds...:

http://thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html

And I thought Pualities were stupid. That's truly out there

[Jedieb]

What I saw as particularly devastating about this week's primaries were the gains that Obama made with Hillary's base. He's chipping away at them. She's in serious trouble. He's gaining so much momentum that many undecided voters are seeing his victory as inevitable. Texas and Ohio are definitely her last stand. She needs them both are it's over. I still think they could both end up at the convention without 2,025, but she's going to be trailing. This could be some convention.

Watch how McCain attacks Obama right now. It's a preview of what he's going to do in the regular campaign. Right now I'd wager they're going to try to throw as much as they can at Obama and see what sticks. In 04 Bush used early money and soundbites to label Kerry as a flip-flopper, then the Swiftboaters finished him off by attacking one of his strengths. Obama still can't focus on McCain because he's still not out of the woods with Hillary but he's already started taking some early shots at McCain. I just hope this is a more civil campaign than we've seen for the last few years.

[Figrin D'an]

Word is coming in now that the Teamsters union is backing Obama. That's huge, because unions are the bedrock of Clinton's support base. She really lost big when much of blue-collar Wisconsin chose Obama over her, and with a group like the Teamsters in Obama's corner, he can get further in-roads into that base in places like Ohio and Texas.

Ohio/Texas is Hillary's last stand. If she doesn't win those states, and convincingly, this race is over.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It takes all kinds...:

http://thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html

That article is full of it. Rove isn't scared of Hillary actually the probably feel they can beat her. There have been rumors for months that they had something on the clintons they were going to pull out at the last minute. That article is probably written by some upset Clinton supporter who is trying to turn around some votes.

[Turbogeek]

It takes all kinds...:

http://thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html

That article is full of it. Rove isn't scared of Hillary actually the probably feel they can beat her. There have been rumors for months that they had something on the clintons they were going to pull out at the last minute. That article is probably written by some upset Clinton supporter who is trying to turn around some votes.


The Republicans WANT Clinton to be the nominee because the Clinton name will motivate the Repubican base to vote against her. Plus, imagine all the 527 style attack groups that will just rip her apart. Obama on the other hand has taken on the power in the Democrats and is winning. He's proving to be truly formidible and as well can get the Democrat base out to vote, the independants will vote for him and even moderate Republicans would vote for him. Even just getting the nomination, Obama will be part of political history as the closest any non white person has ever gotten to the White House. He shows it's actually possible.

While there are racists who wont vote for anything other than a old white guy, there are millions who would be excited to do it.

Rove like all the Republicans will have the most to fear from Obama. And with very good reason.

[Yog]

Here is a rather amusing post I read today..

50% of Americans believe in Guardian angels. (link (http://www.adherents.com/Na/Na_517.html))
45% of Americans believe in ghosts. (link (http://www.uri-geller.com/polls.htm))
44% of Americans believe that the world is less than 10,000 years old. (link (http://www.religioustolerance.org/ev_publi.htm))
41% of Americans believe that Atlantis once existed. (link (http://www.cryptomundo.com/bigfoot-report/what-americans-believe/))
34% of Americans believe that UFOs of alien origins regularly visit Earth. (link (http://whitewatch.wordpress.com/2007/10/26/13-of-americans-believe-in-ufos/))
24% of Americans believe in witches. (link (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99945,00.html))
19% of Americans believe that George Bush is doing a good job:


George W. Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to a new low in American Research Group polling as 78% of Americans say that the national economy is getting worse according to the latest survey from the American Research Group.

Among all Americans, 19% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 77% disapprove. When it comes to Bush's handling of the economy, 14% approve and 79% disapprove.

Among Americans registered to vote, 18% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 78% disapprove. When it comes to the way Bush is handling the economy, 15% of registered voters approve of the way Bush is handling the economy and 79% disapprove.

A total of 78% of Americans say the national economy is getting worse and 47% say the national economy is in a recession. A total of 42% of Americans, however, say they believe the national economy will be better a year from now, which is the highest level for this question in the past year. This optimism does not spread to improvements in household financial situations as 17% of Americans say they expect their household financial situations to be better a year from now, which is the lowest for this question in the past year.

The results presented here are based on 1,100 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of adults 18 years and older. The interviews were completed February 16 through 19, 2008. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Overall, 19% of Americans say that they approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, 77% disapprove, and 4% are undecided.


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Apparently, the lowest approval rate ever. Nixon never had less than 25%.

[Yog]

Looks like McCain could potentially get into some campaign spending issues until september...


But McCain's attempts to build up his campaign coffers before a general election contest appeared to be threatened by the stern warning yesterday from Federal Election Commission Chairman David M. Mason, a Republican. Mason notified McCain that the commission had not granted his Feb. 6 request to withdraw from the presidential public financing system.

The implications of that could be dramatic. Last year, when McCain's campaign was starved for cash, he applied to join the financing system to gain access to millions of dollars in federal matching money. He was also permitted to use his FEC certification to bypass the time-consuming process of gathering signatures to get his name on the ballot in several states, including Ohio.

By signing up for matching money, McCain agreed to adhere to strict state-by-state spending limits and an overall limit on spending of $54 million for the primary season, which lasts until the party's nominating convention in September. The general election has a separate public financing arrangement.

But after McCain won a series of early contests and the campaign found its financial footing, his lawyer wrote to the FEC requesting to back out of the program -- which is permitted for candidates who have not yet received any federal money and who have not used the promise of federal funding as collateral for borrowing money.

Mason's letter raises two issues as the basis for his position. One is that the six-member commission lacks a quorum, with four vacancies because of a Senate deadlock over President Bush's nominees for the seats. Mason said the FEC would need to vote on McCain's request to leave the system, which is not possible without a quorum. Until that can happen, the candidate will have to remain within the system, he said.

The second issue is more complicated. It involves a $1 million loan McCain obtained from a Bethesda bank in January. The bank was worried about his ability to repay the loan if he exited the federal financing program and started to lose in the primary race. McCain promised the bank that, if that happened, he would reapply for matching money and offer those as collateral for the loan. While McCain's aides have argued that the campaign was careful to make sure that they technically complied with the rules, Mason indicated that the question needs further FEC review.

If the FEC refuses McCain's request to leave the system, his campaign could be bound by a potentially debilitating spending limit until he formally accepts his party's nomination. His campaign has already spent $49 million, federal reports show. Knowingly violating the spending limit is a criminal offense that could put McCain at risk of stiff fines and up to five years in prison.

"If in fact he is stuck with these spending limits, it would be a serious limitation on what he can do," said Rick Hasen, an election law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.

Finance experts compared the situation to the massive imbalance faced by Republican presidential nominee Robert J. Dole in 1996, when he was forced to contend with spending limits while his opponent, President Bill Clinton, was not.

Trevor Potter, a former FEC chairman who is McCain's top lawyer, immediately disputed the assertions in Mason's letter, saying McCain has a constitutional right to exit the federal program. He also dismissed the letter as unenforceable because the FEC lacks a quorum to resolve the dispute.

"We believe that Senator McCain had a clear legal right to withdraw from the primary matching fund system, and he has done so," Potter told the Associated Press. "No FEC action was or is required for withdrawal."

Campaign finance experts were split on how serious the FEC position could become. But several agreed that the matter would not be resolved by McCain simply ignoring the letter and plowing ahead.

"It's nice for Trevor Potter to say 'Buzz off,' but the campaign is going to have to respond," said Bradley Smith, a former FEC chairman.

"This is serious," agreed Republican election lawyer Jan Baran. Ignoring the matter on the grounds that the FEC lacks a quorum, Baran said, "is like saying you're going to break into houses because the sheriff is out of town."
Source: Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/21/AR2008022103141.html?hpid=topnews&sub=new&sid=ST2008022102994)
(I bolded the really interesting parts)

So unless my math is off, McCain will only be able to spend $5M until september? How the hell can he run a campaign on that? Is there any way around this? O_o

[Turbogeek]

Here is a rather amusing post I read today..

50% of Americans believe in Guardian angels. (link (http://www.adherents.com/Na/Na_517.html))
45% of Americans believe in ghosts. (link (http://www.uri-geller.com/polls.htm))
44% of Americans believe that the world is less than 10,000 years old. (link (http://www.religioustolerance.org/ev_publi.htm))
41% of Americans believe that Atlantis once existed. (link (http://www.cryptomundo.com/bigfoot-report/what-americans-believe/))
34% of Americans believe that UFOs of alien origins regularly visit Earth. (link (http://whitewatch.wordpress.com/2007/10/26/13-of-americans-believe-in-ufos/))
24% of Americans believe in witches. (link (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99945,00.html))
19% of Americans believe that George Bush is doing a good job:


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Apparently, the lowest approval rate ever. Nixon never had less than 25%.[/quote]



Actually it's possible an Atlantis like place existed and was drowned much like the myth off Crete about 1200 BC. So that's not all that unresonable.


However 19% still thinking Bush has a clue despite massive evidence to the contrary is staggering. It should be 0%.


So unless my math is off, McCain will only be able to spend $5M until september? How the hell can he run a campaign on that? Is there any way around this?

527's and a few other tricks. Altho in reality the electorate makes up it;'s mind very late or is fixed very early so advertising right now isnt going to have too much effect.

[Yog]

^^ I think most likely, McCain will try to ignore it, and face whatever legal mess arise out of it. That could get ugly though.


Now this is a disturbing story, about poor security at rallies. In Dallas of all places.. :eek


Police concerned about order to stop weapons screening at Obama rally

DALLAS -- Security details at Barack Obama's rally Wednesday stopped screening people for weapons at the front gates more than an hour before the Democratic presidential candidate took the stage at Reunion Arena.

The order to put down the metal detectors and stop checking purses and laptop bags came as a surprise to several Dallas police officers who said they believed it was a lapse in security.

Dallas Deputy Police Chief T.W. Lawrence, head of the Police Department's homeland security and special operations divisions, said the order -- apparently made by the U.S. Secret Service -- was meant to speed up the long lines outside and fill the arena's vacant seats before Obama came on.

"Sure," said Lawrence, when asked if he was concerned by the great number of people who had gotten into the building without being checked. But, he added, the turnout of more than 17,000 people seemed to be a "friendly crowd."

The Secret Service did not return a call from the Star-Telegram seeking comment.

Doors opened to the public at 10 a.m., and for the first hour security officers scanned each person who came in and checked their belongings in a process that kept movement of the long lines at a crawl. Then, about 11 a.m., an order came down to allow the people in without being checked.

Several Dallas police officers said it worried them that the arena was packed with people who got in without even a cursory inspection.

They spoke on condition of anonymity because, they said, the order was made by federal officials who were in charge of security at the event.

"How can you not be concerned in this day and age," said one policeman.

Source: http://www.star-telegram.com/667/story/486413.html

Secret Service responds..


FORT WORTH -- The U.S. Secret Service on Friday defended its handling of security during a massive rally in downtown Dallas for Barack Obama, saying there was no "lapse" in its "comprehensive and layered security plan," which called for some people to be checked for weapons, while others were not.

A report in the Star-Telegram that said some security measures were lifted during Wednesday's rally sparked a public outrage across the country, with most people saying they were shocked that a routine weapons search was lifted at the front gates of Reunion Arena an hour before the Democratic presidential candidate took the stage.

"This relaxed security was unbelievably stupid, especially in Dallas," Jeff Adams of Berkeley, Calif., said in an e-mail to the Star-Telegram, noting the assassination of President Kennedy in Dallas more than four decades ago.

Others said they had recently attended large political events, many for Obama, where security screening was halted. Jeremy Dibbell of Boston said in an e-mail that he attended an Obama event in Boston at which "the same thing happened there. We waited for hours in line as people were screened, and then suddenly everyone was just allowed in without going through any inspection at all."

Nick Shapiro, a spokesman for Obama in Texas, said the campaign would have no comment on whether there was a security breech in Dallas. Shapiro referred questions to the Secret Service.

"There were no security lapses at that venue," said Eric Zahren, a spokesman for the Secret Service in Washington. He added there was "no deviation" from the "comprehensive and layered" security plan, implemented in "very close cooperation with our law enforcement partners."

Zahren rebutted suggestions by several Dallas police officers at the rally who thought the Secret Service ordered a halt to the time-consuming weapons check because long lines were moving slowly, and many seats remained empty as time neared for Obama to appear.

"It was never a part of the plan at this particular venue to have each and every person in the crowd pass through the Magnetometer," said Zahren, referring to the device used to detect metal in clothing and bags.

He declined to give the reason for checking people for weapons at the front of the lines and letting those farther back go in without inspection.

"We would not want, by providing those details, to have people trying to derive ways in which they could defeat the security at any particular venue," Zahren said.

Lt. V.L. Hale III, a spokesman for the Dallas Police Department, said in a statement Friday that he would not comment on security measures at the Obama rally except to say there was no arrest or incident and that it was a "success from a police standpoint."

Source: http://www.star-telegram.com/dallas_news/story/489920.html

Is it just me, or has Secret Service become amazingly sloppy? Does anyone else remember about that grenade that was tossed at Bush (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/18/AR2005051800470.html) a few years ago?

[Erasmus Daragon]

It takes all kinds...:

http://thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html

That article is full of it. Rove isn't scared of Hillary actually the probably feel they can beat her. There have been rumors for months that they had something on the clintons they were going to pull out at the last minute. That article is probably written by some upset Clinton supporter who is trying to turn around some votes.

Well, you never know. If I was a corrupt person in the world of politics, I would want to establish power as much as possible and have my influence spread as far as possible. Who cares what party if I can manage to have influence in both, right? I didn't read the whole thing, but it just looks like Rove, or his cronies, are trying to get close to Sen. Obama, who hasn't been around long enough to be close to. Maybe they can ruin Sen. Clinton and they're betting on Obama's win, or maybe they're not afraid of her because they own her. Who knows?

Either way, this is one of the guys that somehow managed to keep a crooked corporatist White House administration with an idiot as a figurehead in place for eight years, in spite of their unlawful power consolidation and shortsighted decisions. It makes sense that someone would worry that he's up to something, right?. o_O

[Yog]

Obama is gaining on Clinton in Ohio, according to a recent poll (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary), and Obama is also doing well in Texas, leading by 4-5 points (http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/69822/Another-New-Poll-Shows-Obama-Leading-In-Texas.htm). In the meanwhile, there is finger pointing and frustration (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8692.html) in the Clinton camp. A few days ago, there was a the debate in Houston (http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=%22Hillary+Clinton+vs+Barack+ Obama%22+CNN+Debate+part&search_type=). Obama enjoys a 20 point lead among those who viewed that debate. Tonight there is another live broadcasted debate in Ohio, which is her last chance to win any voters probably.

This is looking very pale for Clinton, to be honest. It has now reached the point you gotta wonder when she will drop out of the race. My prediction is, she will be more or less forced to do so after the Ohio / Texas elections. I estimate she will announce dropping out of the race at 5th of march, the day after results come in. That is 8 days from now.

[Cat X]

I 'll make a brave prediction about Ohio and Texas, based on what I saw of the democrat debate.

Hillary is going to get beaten badly in Ohio and utterly annihalated in Texas. Obama to be cornated by every last superdelegate the day after and nomination race not just effectively over, but truly over. We move on to McCain vs Obama

Holy crap, Clinton was so badly owned in that debate by the panel, it wasnt funny. Except funny if you wanted to see a candidate shhot themselves in the foot.

[Jedieb]

I just read a couple of interesting articles on Texas and DNC race. ONe article highlighted a Houston Superdelegate that has switched his vote from Clinton to Obama. So many of these "pledged" delegates are still in play. Another article broke down how Clinton could win the popular vote in Texas but still come out on the short end of the delegate count. That's what really matters next Tuesday. She could win both Ohio and Texas but still be lagging behind Obama if she doesn't pull in enough delegates. The one thing that some Clinton wins could give us is a convention without a nominee. Oh, let the fun begin.

[Byl Laprovik]

I 'll make a brave prediction about Ohio and Texas, based on what I saw of the democrat debate.

Hillary is going to get beaten badly in Ohio and utterly annihalated in Texas. Obama to be cornated by every last superdelegate the day after and nomination race not just effectively over, but truly over. We move on to McCain vs Obama

Holy crap, Clinton was so badly owned in that debate by the panel, it wasnt funny. Except funny if you wanted to see a candidate shhot themselves in the foot.

I don't think this will be the case. I think its far more likely that they will be states that narrowly carry one way or the other. The interesting thing is that this isn't good for Hillary either. She really has to win decisively to stand a chance. If she gridlocks these states and splits delegates with Obama, she's not gaining traction. At best it's like Jedieb says, and it'll be a convention catfight. At worst, she's going to continue losing parity with pledged delegates and continue to hemhorrage supers.

[Figrin D'an]

Texas and Ohio will probably be close races, but as has been stated, that does Hillary no good. She has to win by a significant margin in both states if she is going to really be able to take this race all the way to the convention. After Tuesday, the last major state in terms of delegates is Pennsylvania, and with some super delegates already stating they are changing their support from Clinton to Obama, Texas/Ohio really is her last stand.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Texas and Ohio will probably be close races, but as has been stated, that does Hillary no good. She has to win by a significant margin in both states if she is going to really be able to take this race all the way to the convention. After Tuesday, the last major state in terms of delegates is Pennsylvania, and with some super delegates already stating they are changing their support from Clinton to Obama, Texas/Ohio really is her last stand.

I completely agree, I also have a feeling she might lose Texas. Ohio she could win but it be narrowly. Hopefully, if she loses Texas she will graciously bow out.

[Yog]

Check out this delegate counter tool:
http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

In order to win the nomination, Obama has to win an average of 47% of the remaining delegates in the upcoming primaries, AND he has to win 186 of the remaining 421 undecided superdelegates (44.2%). Which means, as long as Obama doesn't screw up fantastically, Obama wins! He doesn't even have to beat Hillary, he just has to not lose too badly to her.

Now, in order for Clinton to match Obama's delegates (pledged), she would need to win by 58% in every single primary from now until the DNC..

Edit: One important thing to note when using that tool, Obama has about 185 super delegates so far, while Clinton has 236. You have to subtract that number to figure out the number of super delegates needed.

[Yog]

Latest update on Ohio and Texas:


Obama, an Illinois senator, has a 6-point edge on Clinton in Texas, 48 percent to 42 percent. He trails Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent in Ohio -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

Source Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2964115720080229

[Jedieb]

Latest update on Ohio and Texas:


Obama, an Illinois senator, has a 6-point edge on Clinton in Texas, 48 percent to 42 percent. He trails Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent in Ohio -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

Source Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2964115720080229

Wow, that's a horrible Texas poll for Clinton. And Ohio isn't much better because it doesn't show the big win she needs to make up delegates. Someone's going to have a big hangover on Wed. morning.

[Turbogeek]

Latest update on Ohio and Texas:


Obama, an Illinois senator, has a 6-point edge on Clinton in Texas, 48 percent to 42 percent. He trails Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent in Ohio -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
Source Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2964115720080229

Wow, that's a horrible Texas poll for Clinton. And Ohio isn't much better because it doesn't show the big win she needs to make up delegates. Someone's going to have a big hangover on Wed. morning.

But what is really amazing is that she had a double digit lead in Ohio two weeks ago and just after Super Tuesday enjoyed the same in Texas. 4 more days and who knows, Obama could well win Ohio with the momentum he's clearly got

[Jedieb]

Latest update on Ohio and Texas:


Obama, an Illinois senator, has a 6-point edge on Clinton in Texas, 48 percent to 42 percent. He trails Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent in Ohio -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
Source Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2964115720080229

Wow, that's a horrible Texas poll for Clinton. And Ohio isn't much better because it doesn't show the big win she needs to make up delegates. Someone's going to have a big hangover on Wed. morning.

But what is really amazing is that she had a double digit lead in Ohio two weeks ago and just after Super Tuesday enjoyed the same in Texas. 4 more days and who knows, Obama could well win Ohio with the momentum he's clearly got

Her best chance in both those states would have been if they'd had their primaries on Super Tuesday or even a couple of weeks ago. The momentum that Obama has been gaining is just killing her with undecideds and he's been chipping away at her base for weeks now. Tomorrow really is her last stand. She tired to throw some haymakers during the last debate and over the weekend. It'll be curious to see how her tone changes if she loses tomorrow. You'd think if she were interested in the VP spot she'd start playing nice.

[Yog]

Unfortunately, Clinton had some better polls today. Sad to see her negative campaigning for the last week or so is helping her numbers. The good news it's still very close (and close won't cut it for Clinton). Furthermore, Obama tends to do better than the polls indicate.



State Clinton Clinton Obama Obama
(# polls) Avg Actual Avg Actual
SC(20) 27% 0 41% +14
AL (7) 45% -3 44% +12
CA (8) 46% +6 40% + 3
GA(10) 34% -3 50% +16
MO (6) 45% +3 44% + 5
NJ(12) 47% +7 40% + 4
NY (6) 53% +4 36% + 4
TN (6) 52% +2 33% + 8
MD (6) 34% +3 53% + 7
VA (7) 37% -2 55% + 9
WI (8) 43% -2 47% +11

Clinton performance vs average of polls= +1.36
Obama performance vs average of polls= +8.45

[Figrin D'an]

I saw a clip of today of Hillary stumping in Ohio... she made this ridiculously dumb statement:

"It took a Clinton to clean up the mess from the first Bush, and it's going to take a Clinton to clean up the mess from the second Bush."


What a horribly weak statement. It shows how desperate things are getting for her... she's really fishing for reasons to convince people to vote for her.

[Yog]

Yeah, also how she tries to portray herself as victim of media bias, the "<a href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKNcqj9WakU>red phone</a>" ads and the amazing spin on the topic of NAFTA. Very little substance nowadays. This is how an ad is supposed to be like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmLPr5kUtGM

Today is the big day. Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. Will post results, news etc as it comes in! :)

Obama looks confident enough today!
http://img169.imageshack.us/img169/1819/obama1bc9.jpg

[Yog]

Time for some leaked exit polls :D



Vermont: Obama 67, Clinton 33
Ohio: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Texas: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Rhode Island: Clinton 49, Obama 49

I'm still trying chase down some numbers from my sources, but it looks like NRO's Jim Geraghty has gotten his hands on not one but two sets of early exit polling data (perhaps coming from different points in the day, though also perhaps from different pollsters). Here's what he has:

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

http://mydd.com/


Also, The Drudge reports:
EXIT POLLS: DEADLOCK IN TX, OH, RI

Obama looks to win Vermont comfortable as expected (2-1 margin). Close race in Texas and Ohio.

ABC reports: 'Change' Tops 'Experience"... Again
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4386210&page=1

- This just in, word is Richardson about to endorse Obama (rumour)

- Update: Vermont's polls close in fifteen minutes!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Time for some leaked exit polls :D



Vermont: Obama 67, Clinton 33
Ohio: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Texas: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Rhode Island: Clinton 49, Obama 49

I'm still trying chase down some numbers from my sources, but it looks like NRO's Jim Geraghty has gotten his hands on not one but two sets of early exit polling data (perhaps coming from different points in the day, though also perhaps from different pollsters). Here's what he has:

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

http://mydd.com/


Also, The Drudge reports:
EXIT POLLS: DEADLOCK IN TX, OH, RI

Obama looks to win Vermont comfortable as expected (2-1 margin). Close race in Texas and Ohio.

ABC reports: 'Change' Tops 'Experience"... Again
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4386210&page=1

- This just in, word is Richardson about to endorse Obama (rumour)

- Update: Vermont's polls close in fifteen minutes!

Man is that close, Vermont should go to Obama fast though. I think Richardson is positioning himself to be a possible VP right now. Although if Obama can win one of the two states I expect a lot of the Democratic establishment from John Edwards and Biden to maybe even Al Gore to come out and support him.

[Yog]

It's 7.00 pm EST. Vermont called for Obama!

Actual Exit Poll For Vermont:
Obama 61.8%
Clinton 36.6%

Detailed exit poll data:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#VTDEM

Obama won every demographic in Vermont!

[Yog]

Here is a good site to track Ohio results live district by district:
http://www.ohiodems.org/site/c.mhLRKZPCLmF/b.3936493/

Ohio polls just closed! Too close to call for democrats! McCain wins Ohio!

CNN OHIO EXIT POLL!
Obama: 47.87%
Clinton: 52.13%

This is an excellent result for Obama. It is close enough it may end with a delegate split! Remember, 3-4 weeks ago, it was something like 60/40..

Detailed exit polls stats:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM

- Remember: exit numbers do not include early voting.

[Yog]

Texas polls just closed!

McCain projected to get enough delegates to win outright!

Democrats
Texas: To Close to Call!
Rhode Island: To Close to Call!


Texas exit poll:
Clinton 50.0%
Obama 48.9%

Rhode Island exit poll:
Clinton 51.6%
Obama 47.5%

Detailed exit poll stats Texas:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#TXDEM

[Yog]

Huckabee called to congratulate McCain and conceeding on a live press conference now.

So McCain is the official GOP nominee now.

It's going to be a long night for the democrats though..

[Cat X]

RI was a lot closer than it was even a week ago. Ohio looks close too, tho a Clinton win there I'd say is on the cards. Texas..... Well, the primaries could well say one thing, but they have that insane caucus afterwards that actually picks the delegates so...... who knows.

But one thing for sure, Clinton will NOT get the big result she needed.

[Jedieb]

Clinton just pulled ahead of Obama in Texas. Whoever wins Texas, it won't be by much. Clinton basically bought herself some time. She's going to pick up a boost by halting Obama's winning streak and possibly winning 3 out of 4 states. She's not going to pick up many delegates on Obama though. Neither one of them is going to get the majority without the unpledged Superdelegates. This thing is going on to Penn., that's for sure.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I tell you this if Hillary comes back and wins this nomination, I will not vote for her. But I can't vote for McCain either, I will probably just vote for Nader as a protest vote.

[Cat X]

Clinton just pulled ahead of Obama in Texas. Whoever wins Texas, it won't be by much. Clinton basically bought herself some time. She's going to pick up a boost by halting Obama's winning streak and possibly winning 3 out of 4 states. She's not going to pick up many delegates on Obama though. Neither one of them is going to get the majority without the unpledged Superdelegates. This thing is going on to Penn., that's for sure.

If it goes to Penn, it's only bad for the party, now that McCain is now guarentteed the Republican nomination.

Clinton cant get the numbers, she will be behind at the convention, her scorched earth campaining is only hurting the party. This can only help McCain.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Clinton just pulled ahead of Obama in Texas. Whoever wins Texas, it won't be by much. Clinton basically bought herself some time. She's going to pick up a boost by halting Obama's winning streak and possibly winning 3 out of 4 states. She's not going to pick up many delegates on Obama though. Neither one of them is going to get the majority without the unpledged Superdelegates. This thing is going on to Penn., that's for sure.

If it goes to Penn, it's only bad for the party, now that McCain is now guarentteed the Republican nomination.

Clinton cant get the numbers, she will be behind at the convention, her scorched earth campaining is only hurting the party. This can only help McCain.

I know I agree I am afraid Hillary will get the nomination through the SuperDelegates and this will make most Obama supports mad it will be 68 all over again and they won't show up. Me, I refuse to vote for her and will just vote for Nader, of course in my state it won't matter who I vote for.

[Cat X]

Clinton just pulled ahead of Obama in Texas. Whoever wins Texas, it won't be by much. Clinton basically bought herself some time. She's going to pick up a boost by halting Obama's winning streak and possibly winning 3 out of 4 states. She's not going to pick up many delegates on Obama though. Neither one of them is going to get the majority without the unpledged Superdelegates. This thing is going on to Penn., that's for sure.

If it goes to Penn, it's only bad for the party, now that McCain is now guarentteed the Republican nomination.

Clinton cant get the numbers, she will be behind at the convention, her scorched earth campaining is only hurting the party. This can only help McCain.

I know I agree I am afraid Hillary will get the nomination through the SuperDelegates and this will make most Obama supports mad it will be 68 all over again and they won't show up. Me, I refuse to vote for her and will just vote for Nader, of course in my state it won't matter who I vote for.

How is she going to get the Super's she needs?

The problem is that it's just simply the case Obama cant be beaten for delegate numbers at the convention now. If there's a whill of backroom deals to get Clinton the nomination, you just watch the Republicans rip the deal to peices and make it look as bad as possible. And the Supers would have to know the majority of Obama supporters can form a new and solid base for the party that will carry not just a President, but Congress Democrats too.

I suspect there's a lot of sane Democrats who know this. But Clinton is clearly not sane when it comes to the nomination. She will do ANYTHING and this is going to be a huge problem and probably the way the Democrats lose the White House this November

[Yog]

Well, for all the things she spinned the last week or so, there is still one thing she can't manipulate: Slate's delegate calculator.

Hillary's Math Problem..



Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

So here we go: Let's assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50.

Then it's on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let's say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48.

Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it's a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam's two delegates on May 30, and Indiana's proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates.

Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months.

So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 58-delegate lead.

Let's say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn't helping me here.)

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.


For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240/page/1

[Yog]

.. to expand on the point above, it's still an open question if she will even gain any delegates on Obama at all after tonight..




So I was going to go to bed, but I'm sort of wired. So let's see where the delegate numbers are today. All these numbers are tentative, as final vote tallies come in:

Vermont (15 delegates)
Obama 9
Clinton 6

Rhode Island (21 delegates)
Clinton 12
Obama 8

Texas
Primary (126 delegates, Link (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pJ0M6W5tNQCPLz7oU3-llfg))
Clinton 64
Obama 62

Caucuses (67 delegates; tentative results based on a straight percentage from 34% reporting)
Obama ~37
Clinton ~30

Total (Nowhere near final)
Obama ~99
Clinton ~94

Ohio (141 delegates, punching in results with 97% reporting here (http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/ohio_delegate_calculator))
Clinton 73
Obama 68


So total for the night, thus far, is Clinton 185 and Obama 184. Not all votes are in, so things will change a bit. But at this point, we have a ridiculously tiny one-delegate lead for Clinton for the night, which could either produce her first delegate victory of the election, or be erased by the rest of the still-not-reported Texas caucuses.

Now according to both the Clinton and Obama campaigns (http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html), Obama entered the race with a 159 pledged delegate lead. So with some luck, Clinton ends the night about ... 158 157 delegates behind.

More problematic for Clinton, is that today's 370 delegates were about 38 percent of the just-shy of 1,000 remaining delegates before Tuesday's contests. That means we just had over 1/3rd of the remaining delegates allocated, with only marginal-to-none gains in the count for Clinton.

So Clinton is running out of states, and even her "big" victory Tuesday is proving little more than a pyrrhic victory.

Source: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/5/3265/76888/604/469268


Texas Democratic website tally of caucus results:
http://precinctconventionresults.txdemocrats.org/election08district

[Turbogeek]

Well, for all the things she spinned the last week or so, there is still one thing she can't manipulate: Slate's delegate calculator.

Hillary's Math Problem..



Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.


On reading betweeen the lines of the results tonight, Hilary didnt win big at all. Oh sure, she may narrowly win Texas and Ohio was a good win, but the fact is that it's Ddelegates that count and by some readings, she managed to achieve 1 extra delegate over Obama for today. That's all.

And frankly also reading between the lines, Obama made up some seriously huge ground in just three weeks in states that had everything in favor for Clinton. The fact is, Hilary did NOT have the big win, there's nothing in this one for her at all and she's just had 38% of all the possible delegates remaining are now gone.

She cant win this, even with Supers uncommitted.

EFB : HAHAHA Yog's quick off the draw :)

By my reckoning, there's 740 normal delegates left to decide. She needs to win 528 (!) to get ahead. Somehow I dont think so!

[Figrin D'an]

The concern the Democratic party needs to have now is the very distinct possibility that neither Clinton or Obama will have the necessary 2025 delegates to clinch the nomination before their party convention. If this turns into a convention fight and drags out for too long, the Dems could very well cost themselves the general election.

The other big problem is what to do about Florida and Michigan. Howard Dean and the rest of the party leaders have to figure out if those states will need to be redone so they can actually count. There will be screaming from both the Clinton and Obama campaigns about that one.

This could end up being a nightmare for the Democrats.

[Veritas]

Putting Florida and Michigan back into play scares the hell out of me.

[Yog]

This could end up being a nightmare for the Democrats.

This is my main concern. I am worried the negative campaigning and prolonged fighting could divide the Democrats while McCain can just comfortably gain more campaign funds and load up the artillery for the fall. I am not even worried about Florida / Michigan in terms of delegates. I am however worried about the possible bickering / drama that could result out of that.

The question is, how much damage is Clinton willing to inflict on the Democrats and Obama before he is the official nominee. What makes me sad, with better numbers for Obama today, it could have been a knock out, and the pressure would be on Hillary to concede. Instead, this will go on for who knows how long.

As far as I am concerned, Clinton is realistically out of the race. That is the cold hard truth about the delegate maths. It's just that media reports a different story and people not realized it yet. Instead they write "Big comeback by Clinton! Close Race! Clinton got the momentum!". The spin is mind boggling. And they will keep writing that, because a prolonged race gives better ratings. In reality though, she is near impossibly behind at this point.

How bad is it for Clinton delegate wise? It went from very bad to disaster:
Slate's delegate calculator sucks, why it's even worse for Clinton (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/4/162042/3056/80/468751)

Even if Clinton technically won today, Obama's lead was consolidated. Clinton did not need to win today, nor did she need to win huge.. she needed to mop the floor with him. I am thinking 70-30 margin. What basically happened today, Obama went into Clinton territory and robbed her for 15-20 percentage points in Texas and Ohio over a two week period. Thats the real story as far as momentum goes. But the media has a short term memory, and will tell you what happened on the polls for the last 2-3 days instead..

I guess tables will turn around when Obama wins another 60-40 in one of the upcoming primaries. I'll love to see Hillary try and spin that :)

[Jedieb]

The concern the Democratic party needs to have now is the very distinct possibility that neither Clinton or Obama will have the necessary 2025 delegates to clinch the nomination before their party convention. If this turns into a convention fight and drags out for too long, the Dems could very well cost themselves the general election.

The other big problem is what to do about Florida and Michigan. Howard Dean and the rest of the party leaders have to figure out if those states will need to be redone so they can actually count. There will be screaming from both the Clinton and Obama campaigns about that one.

This could end up being a nightmare for the Democrats.


I don't think either of them are going to get 2,025 without superdelegates. Ohio practically guarantees that. Here are some poll numbers for the next big contest:


Rasmussen 02/26 - 02/26 Clinton 46 Obama 42
Quinnipiac 02/21 - 02/25 Clinton 49 Obama 43
Franklin & Marshall 02/13 - 02/18 Clinton 44 Obama 32
Morning Call 02/09 - 02/17 Clinton 45 Obama 31

You can see that a 14 point lead is down to 4 and we're 1 1/2 months from the Penn. primary (4.22). What troubles me is how Hillary won yesterday. She went negative and it worked. She got the majority of late deciders so her campaign is going to take that and run with it. She went negative to sway those voters so we're probably going to see her continue to do so. This could be bad for the party. At this point, I really think a Hillary comeback would hurt the party more than an Obama win. Obama should win these next two primaries which will give him some positive news. He may also do well enough with the Texas caucases to nullify Hillary's win in the popular vote.

Either way, it's time for McCain to sit back and take advantage. I'm curious as to just how far McCain is going to go right now. I have no doubt what Bush/Rove would be doing during this Dem catfight. Will McCain sink that low? I hope not.

[Cat X]

You can see that a 14 point lead is down to 4 and we're 1 1/2 months from the Penn. primary (4.22). What troubles me is how Hillary won yesterday. She went negative and it worked. She got the majority of late deciders so her campaign is going to take that and run with it. She went negative to sway those voters so we're probably going to see her continue to do so. This could be bad for the party. At this point, I really think a Hillary comeback would hurt the party more than an Obama win. Obama should win these next two primaries which will give him some positive news. He may also do well enough with the Texas caucases to nullify Hillary's win in the popular vote.



From what I am reading, it seems the more intelligent of the politcal talking heads are pretty much realizign yesterday looked good for a headline, but in reality it was no win for Hilary. And nor was it a comeback for she was a lot further in front a week ago even in the polls. She's sunk as far as delegates go, she needs 94% to have a majority come the convention.

While I dont like this, the only way out for Clinton is for some VP horse trading. Either get Obama as the VP (I cant see that happening) or be Obama's VP. I kinda think the second is the best, but it's not really great as far as I can see. On the other hand, it may work out to be a real dream ticket in that it brings Clinton's name recognition and support, but defuse the probable Republican attacks.

[Sanis Prent]

There is way too much bad blood between them to pick each other for veep, so don't worry about that.

I think Richardson is being groomed by the Clintons for a possible namedrop, but thats just me guessing.

Bloomberg might be Obama's corner man.

I gotta say, in that hypothetical, I like Clinton's choice a helluva lot more.

[Jedi Master Carr]

What worries me are the points Fig and Jedieb bring up. That is why I was depressed Obama didn't do better. If he had won Ohio and Texas this would be over. I guess things will push to Pennsylvania after that we could see Dean, Edwards, and Gore all get involved in pushing one candidate. I also don't think Michigan and Florida will come back in play. Howard Dean said the other day that won't happen. they can't count them because Obama didn't even campaign there and another election would just be too expensive.

[Yog]

Gotta love the media..

CNN: Primary Results leave Dem Race Wide Open.

Time: Pennsylvania will end it, article implies that the winner there will take it all.

MSNBC: No more Mr. Nice Guy; Obama sheds nice guy image after big losses on Tuesday.

Foxnews: Clinton-Obama ticket gains traction.

Politico: She's back!

New York Times: Clinton Gains momentum; how she can win the nomination.

WaPo: Obama seeks to rally backers after bruising defeats.

.. and so on.





There is way too much bad blood between them to pick each other for veep, so don't worry about that.

I think Richardson is being groomed by the Clintons for a possible namedrop, but thats just me guessing.

Bloomberg might be Obama's corner man.

I gotta say, in that hypothetical, I like Clinton's choice a helluva lot more.I would like John Edwards as VP. Obama and Edwards were pretty similar on their message during the campaign, about change, fighting lobbyists and corruption, a more transparent and honest way of doing politics etc.




That is why I was depressed Obama didn't do better. If he had won Ohio and Texas this would be over.What is really depressing, Clinton had a boost because of the negative campaigning, and stuff like the NAFTAgate, which turned out to be completely bogus, but she exploited that 200% with her radio ads and comments. It is causing a foreign relation scandal with Canada, and the prime minister had to appologize. There is now an investigation going on. Also stuff like this (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/4/21311/85811/447/468408) is not only depressing, but downright infuriating. And the media lets her get away with it, because the media is only interested in her "comeback". AND she has the audacity to claim media is biased favoring Obama.. :rolleyes

As far as Hillary's momentum goes, this graph for Texas pretty much tells the whole story, that tiny spike near the end, that's her momentum..
http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/4156/momentumxh9.th.png (http://img167.imageshack.us/my.php?image=momentumxh9.png)

[Jedieb]

Florida and Michigan are going to be very interesting. Of course the Clinton camp is gonig to keep begging and pleading that both states be allowed to seat delegates. Because Obama wasn't even on the ballot in one of the states he'll cry foul. Each side has arguments to make and I think we're going to be hearing them for weeks to come.

Clinton
Voters shouldn't be ignored. We're disenfranchsing over 5 million voters.
We can't have these states vote again, it would cost MILLIONS of dollars!

Obama
We both agreed that neither one of us would campaign in these states.
Both Michigan and Florida had ample warning their delegates would be tossed out, (Close to 18 months) but they still chose to have their primaries early.
I wasn't even on the ballot in one of these states!
If we want them to count, we should have each state hold ANOTHER primary.

Ideally, I think each state should be allowed to hold another primary, but who's going to pay for it? The DNC doesn't want to have to pay for it because they want that money for the general election. The states themselves don't want to pay for it. How would they sell that to their taxpayers? "Yeah, we screwed up and held them too early, could you guys pay for a do-over?" And counting the previous results is obviously unfair to Obama because of the reasons stated above. Not just that, but plenty of Democrats stayed home simply because they knew their delegates weren't going to get seated. The same way a lot of Republicans will skip these last 12 primaries because their race is already decided.

Dean is going to hold a lot of sway over what happens with these two states.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Florida and Michigan are going to be very interesting. Of course the Clinton camp is gonig to keep begging and pleading that both states be allowed to seat delegates. Because Obama wasn't even on the ballot in one of the states he'll cry foul. Each side has arguments to make and I think we're going to be hearing them for weeks to come.

Clinton
Voters shouldn't be ignored. We're disenfranchsing over 5 million voters.
We can't have these states vote again, it would cost MILLIONS of dollars!

Obama
We both agreed that neither one of us would campaign in these states.
Both Michigan and Florida had ample warning their delegates would be tossed out, (Close to 18 months) but they still chose to have their primaries early.
I wasn't even on the ballot in one of these states!
If we want them to count, we should have each state hold ANOTHER primary.

Ideally, I think each state should be allowed to hold another primary, but who's going to pay for it? The DNC doesn't want to have to pay for it because they want that money for the general election. The states themselves don't want to pay for it. How would they sell that to their taxpayers? "Yeah, we screwed up and held them too early, could you guys pay for a do-over?" And counting the previous results is obviously unfair to Obama because of the reasons stated above. Not just that, but plenty of Democrats stayed home simply because they knew their delegates weren't going to get seated. The same way a lot of Republicans will skip these last 12 primaries because their race is already decided.

Dean is going to hold a lot of sway over what happens with these two states.

Dean said this morning that he is willing to let them have another primary but the states will have to pay for it. He said that he will never let the other primary election count.

[Figrin D'an]

Dean said this morning that he is willing to let them have another primary but the states will have to pay for it. He said that he will never let the other primary election count.


I rarely agree with Howard Dean about much of anything, but he's absolutely correct, IMO, with his stance regarding the Florida and Michigan primaries. These states willingly broke party rules on the primary/caucus scheduling (rules that both of these states agreed to last year), rescheduled their primaries without permission, and are now whining about their delegates potentially not being seated because of it. It think Dean is being more than fair by simply giving Florida and Michigan a chance to do this over the right way. I guess we'll see if there ends up being a primary day in May/June for these states to re-vote. Both states have a healthy number of delegates, and could make a huge difference in the end for either candidate.

[Jedieb]

In case anyone is wondering what the current Superdelegate tally is...

That's where the superdelegates come in, the nearly 800 party and elected officials who will decide the nomination if both candidates stay in the race.

Clinton leads in endorsements from superdelegates, 242 to 209. But that lead has shrunk in the past month. Since an AP survey the week of Super Tuesday, Obama has added 53 superdelegates, while Clinton has had a net loss of one.

Obama is probably going to win the next two primaries and some doom and gloom will return to the Clinton campaign. She's lost some Superdelegates, he hasn't lost any. He doesn't need the majority of them to win the nomination. I think with just over 325 he would pull it off.

[Turbogeek]

What the blazes is Clinton doing?



Surrounded by retired military leaders at an event today, Hillary continued with her strategy of spotlighting McCain's national security credentials as a way to argue that she's the Dem who can beat him in November:
“I think that since we now know Sen. McCain will be the nominee for the Republican Party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think it’s imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold,” the New York senator told reporters crowded into an infant’s bedroom-sized hotel conference room in Washington.
“I believe that I’ve done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that and you’ll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy,” she said.

Calling McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee a good friend and a “distinguished man with a great history of service to our country,” Clinton said, “Both of us will be on that stage having crossed that threshold."

The other day, Hillary sparked a bunch of criticism by arguing that she and McCain would put forth a "lifetime of experience." People pointed out that this was tailor made for political ads against Obama in a general election.

But this seems to go farther -- here she's arguing that he's crossed the threshold to be president in a category that she says is crucial in our next leader.

Hillary supporters privately defend this sort of thing by pointing out that she's never explicitly said that Obama wouldn't be an able commander-in-chief, though this seems to sidle up to that.

Either way, if your strategy is to highlight McCain's commander-in-chief credentials in order to suggest that they should make Dems nervous about Obama's chances against him, then you have to, you know, highlight McCain's commander-in-chief credentials. But pumping up McCain to this extent seems certain to irk some Dems in a big way, so this seems like an awfully risky gamble -- particularly since it could play into efforts by Obama to tie Hillary to McCain and present himself as the only real candidate capable of drawing a clear contrast with him.
<!-- google_ad_section_end -->

Is she like gone completely nuts?
<!-- EndContentMarker -->

[Yog]

Yeah, Clinton is rapidly losing her lead in super delegates:
http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/8528/superdelegatesfh2.png

This (http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html) is a good site to keep track what is going on with super delegates. +9 to +10 super delegates have endorsed Obama in the last 3 days.




Here is how it looks like between McCain and Obama after a recent poll by Survey USA. It shows the percentage differences in popular vote. Holy cow, Obama is redrawing the political map! Check out all those purple states, especially in the south.. even Texas is wavering.

http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/8862/obamavsmccainni8.jpg




If you guys don't mind, I'd like to post some more what is going on with "NAFTAgate" (Hillary's term, not mine). As you all know, Clinton claims she was against NAFTA from the start (even though nothing could be further from the truth (http://www.creators.com/opinion/david-sirota/a-trade-transformation.html)) and she was recently accusing Obama for having secret talks with the Canadian government, giving them assurances the campaign talk was political maneuvering.

I think this is an important issue because it gave Clinton momentum among the undecided voters prior to the vote in Ohio and Texas. Particularly in Ohio because NAFTA is a hot political potatoe there, but even in Texas (even though voters are favoring NAFTA there). It is also a hot issue in Pennsylvania. You see, the debacle about NAFTA a few days ago was not even about trade policy, but about honesty and integrity. It was about saying one thing and then do something entirely different. You know, the kind of lies and back door deals politicians usually do. It's a big deal because Obama has based his campaign on transparent and honest policies.

This caused a bit of a stirr in Canada also. For one thing, because it involved Prime minister Harper's Chief of Staff. But also because this leak is damaging to relations with United States, it is intervening with a foreign election, it's illegal, and entirely inaccurate (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080305.wharpleak0305/BNStory/National/home). What is most amazing though, it now turns out, it was not even one of Obama's people making the comment, but one of Clinton's people LINK (http://polstate.com/?p=5295). It was ALL Clinton! Essentially, she was slamming Obama for something her own campaign had done.. (of course she denies it)


Ironically, the day before the story hit American TV, Brodie, told reporters questioning him on trade that “someone from (Hillary) Clinton’s campaign is telling the embassy to take it with a grain of salt. . . That someone called us and told us not to worry.” But that never made the US headlines.

As Matt Wallace writes in the Daily Kos, “this scandal was manufactured out of whole cloth. Goolsbee said something consistent with Obama’s official position–that he wanted protections added, but it wasn’t going to be a fundamental change or revocation of NAFTA, and that Obama was not a protectionist. This was morphed somewhat going into the memo, and now the embassy admits they “may have misrepresented the Obama advisor.” Even after the memo misrepresented Obama, the Harper government took it a step further and then leaked a completely fantastic version of the story to the press, in order to maximize the bloodletting.”

IMO, this is a very good example of the kind of the kind of spin we're seeing from Hillary's campaign, the distortion in the media, and how negative and false campaigning can manipulate voters. Remember people, when you read the news, read it with a critical eye. The question is when / if the major news networks are going to pick up on this. And if they do, I think it is going to be a political boomerang that will hit hard before Pensylvania. Basically, Clinton lost the last shred of credibility on this particular issue.

[Yog]

What the blazes is Clinton doing?


Is she like gone completely nuts?

I know! It's like 1. saying McCain would be a better president than Obama and 2. giving campaign material to the GOP. What a disgrace to the democrats. What makes these statements even more absurd, she hinted towards a Clinton / Obama ticket yesterday. Is this woman for real?

But check this out. Obama is being compared to Kenneth Star.. O_o

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Clinton_aide_compares_Obama_to_Ken_Starr.html


Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson, taking the campaign a bit meta on a conference call today, attacked Obama for attacking Clinton, and compared him to a notorious Clinton foe.

"When Sen. Obama was confronted with questions over whether he was ready to be commander in chief and steward of the economy, he chose not to address those questions, but to attack Sen. Clinton," Wolfson said. "I for one do not believe that imitating Ken Starr is the way to win a Democratic primary election for president."

[Jedieb]

If the Clintons know anything, it's how to win elections. How many times have either Bill or Hillary been counted out? She's falling back on hard ball politics because it's worked in the past and it got her undecideds in the last primaries. I'm not defending it in any way, just pointing out why she's doing what she's doing. This is her last gasp and she's going to go down fighting. Obama should take this as a learning experience. If he can beat back the best Hillary has to offer now, then it will serve him well in November.

Yes, she's giving him hell right now, but primary attacks have a way of being forgotten months later during a general election. Most men who've taken the VP slot on a ticket campaigned for the nomination themselves. I still think we'll probably see both of them on the ticket. The fact that they've both racked up so many delegates shows that they each have significant support within the party. I'm just worried that another Clinton comeback will keep significant numbers of Democrats at home. I think a lot of voters are willing to accept Hillary as a necessary evil at the VP spot, but they won't pull the lever for her at the top of the ticket. Just look at the animosity she's engedered here on this board. Shre really is a love her or hate her candidtate. That's not what the Dems need to go up against a McCain who can sway independents.

[CMJ]

McCain's going for a kind of Koyaanisqatsi mixed with Churchill and Teddy Roosevelt theme with his kick off to the National campaign.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_A53PAxeR8&feature=user

Rather interesting ad, though I'm not sure how it'll play.

[Turbogeek]

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/03/06/breaking-michigan-caucus-likely-says-dnc-rules-committee-member.aspx

Looks like MI will be counted after all with a caucus. Good news for Obama I think, bad for Clinton.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think Hillary can beat McCain, especially running on National security. I also think a lot of people who voted for Obama and Edwards won't vote for her. I know I won't. I would vote for Nader over her, even if it means 4 more years of a republican president.

[Yog]

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5646/clintonvictoryra2.jpg

:lol

[Yog]

You know, of all the things I read about Bush, this probably ranks as one of, if not the worst :x
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/08/bush.torture.ap/index.html

.. in the meanwhile, Wyoming caucus going on. Obama leads 58-41 in Wyoming with 57% of the votes in.

[Turbogeek]

You know, of all the things I read about Bush, this probably ranks as one of, if not the worst :x
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/08/bush.torture.ap/index.html



Why the hell hasnt that moron been impeached? Even Clinton would a huge step upwards.

Well at the least the USA will get McCain, Clinton or Obama. Pretty much guarenteed to get someone a hell of a lot more competent.

[Jedi Master Carr]

You know, of all the things I read about Bush, this probably ranks as one of, if not the worst :x
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/08/bush.torture.ap/index.html



Why the hell hasnt that moron been impeached? Even Clinton would a huge step upwards.

Well at the least the USA will get McCain, Clinton or Obama. Pretty much guarenteed to get someone a hell of a lot more competent.

Well impeaching a president isn't an easy thing. You have to prove Treason (which I think there is no proof of that) or High crimes and Misdemeanors (now you could probably find something here), however it would hurt the country. Impeachment is something I rather not go through us less it would bring about real change. We would just get Cheney is in place anyway which is worse.

[Turbogeek]

You know, of all the things I read about Bush, this probably ranks as one of, if not the worst :x
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/08/bush.torture.ap/index.html



Why the hell hasnt that moron been impeached? Even Clinton would a huge step upwards.

Well at the least the USA will get McCain, Clinton or Obama. Pretty much guarenteed to get someone a hell of a lot more competent.

Well impeaching a president isn't an easy thing. You have to prove Treason (which I think there is no proof of that) or High crimes and Misdemeanors (now you could probably find something here), however it would hurt the country. Impeachment is something I rather not go through us less it would bring about real change. We would just get Cheney is in place anyway which is worse.


Well, getting rid of those idiots for this

http://www.barackobama.com/tv/index.php?bcpid=900881681&bclid=900480414&bctid=1387531865

And we'll forgive you :)

[Yog]

Here is an interesting article that questions Clinton's ability to manage her own campaign:
Sniping by aides hurt Clinton's image as manager (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/10/america/10clinton.php?page=1)

"It's hard to draw conclusions about her management style," he said, "because she is, in fact, not the manager of her campaign."


.. and in this one, there are further indications about conflicts in the Clinton camp: Even in Victory, Clinton Team Is Battling Itself (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/05/AR2008030503621_pf.html)
Phil Singer, the campaign's deputy communications director, emerged from a meeting on Feb. 11 and without explanation started angrily cursing the war room. "[Expletive] all of you," he shouted, according to a witness, then stormed out and did not return for several days.

Penn was growing increasingly aggravated by what he saw as an untenable management structure, which another aide described as an "oligarchy at the top." Penn had no real people of his own on the inside and chafed whenever Solis Doyle or Ickes got involved in his sphere. At one point, he and Ickes, who have been battling each other within the Clinton orbit for a dozen years, lost their tempers during a conference call, according to two participants.

"[Expletive] you!" Ickes shouted.

"[Expletive] you!" Penn replied.

"[Expletive] you!" Ickes shouted again.

By now, Williams had decided it was untenable to stay unless she was really running the campaign. Clinton called Solis Doyle on Feb. 9 as she was losing three more states, and the decision was announced the next day when she lost a fourth. It was painful for both, because Solis Doyle had worked for Clinton most of her adult life. Henry, her deputy, turned in his resignation letter the next day and stayed just long enough to see out three more losses, in Virginia, Maryland and the District.



.. and here is an amazing story about the Clinton campaign stealing money from their own finance committee: Clinton campaign finance committee member switches to Obama (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/9/2038/37655/750/473190)
Kathy Callahan, you are going to be with us all the way to the White House...So let's leave the money where it is and we'll save time on inevitable future donations and transactions!

Seriously, if she can't manage her own campaign, how in the world is she going to run a country? o_O

[Figrin D'an]

Seriously, if she can't manage her own campaign, how in the world is she going to run a country? o_O


It's just another example of how Clinton's entire campaign is about spin. They'll spin these type of issues as just the typical bumps in the road of any political campaign, yet it's abundantly clear that she was not prepared for a nomination battle that would go on this long. Going into last fall, she expected to have this wrapped up on Super Tuesday, like she was ordained as THE candidate for the Democratic party. Her campaign has been struggling to keep up every since, because they didn't have enough foresight to plan for all contingencies.

She claims she has vastly superior experience to Obama, yet he has actually served in more public offices than she has. She merely uses her husband's presidency and her massive failure of an attempt at putting together a comprehensive health care plan when she was the First Lady (blaming it on the "vast right wing conspiracy") to boost her credentials in this area. The reality is that she is a junior Senator who claims experience by proxy. She is no more experienced than Obama is.

She states that Obama isn't ready to be Commander-in-Chief, and would unable to "answer the White House phone at 3AM." Yet, she has openly hinted at offering him the VP spot on her ticket... a position that places him one assassination, accident or health condition away from the Oval Office. So, is he ready or not, Hillary? Which is it?

She claims that she is the clear front runner after winning Texas and Ohio, despite that Obama has won more states, more pledged delegates and the overall popular vote thus far.

She attacked Obama claiming he plagiarized phrases for his speeches that were attributed to one of his political allies, yet her oh-so-original tag line of "Ready from Day One" was the exact same campaign slogan used by George H.W. Bush back in 1988 when he came off of being an 8-year VP for Reagan to win his own presidency.



Spin, spin, spin. It's how her husband won in 1992, it's how she'll try to win in 2008. The problem is, back in 1992, the Clinton's were the outsiders, and could play the "we're going to change Washington" card. She's on the other side of the fence this time, and she doesn't seem to understand just how large a difference that perception makes in the minds of the voting public... especially a public that is giving both it's current executive and legislative branches some of the lowest job approval ratings in history.

[Atreyu]

She states that Obama isn't ready to be Commander-in-Chief, and would unable to "answer the White House phone at 3AM." Speaking of that 3AM ad - the girl who appears in it actually supports Obama:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080309/ap_on_el_pr/ad_girl_obama;_ylt=AiAjeIi8si8P_8AF85iv9joGw_IE

(for those wondering, the footage of the kids was stock footage bought by the Clinton campaign, which explains why the 8 yr old girl is now 18)

[Turbogeek]

Updated delegate counts, Obama UP +14 this week and will go up more with Missisippi tomorrow I am betting.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/10/151122/998/240/473676

Also to note that HRC's Super delegate lead was 90+ a month ago. Now it is just 32. So it could be suggested that Obama isnt the one with a Super Delegate problem anymore, it's HRC. It appears that you could mount an argument the supers are making up their minds and it's going Obama's way.

[Jedieb]

Another night to watch election results. After everything that happened last week, these last 2 "small" states will have given Obama more delegates than Hillary picked up with Texas and Ohio. In fact, I'm pretty sure Texas was a wash after the caucus results came, Obama may have even picked up a vote. As others have pointed out, more and more Superdelegates have started to make up their mind and most of them seem to be going Obama's way. I'm starting to think this race has a good chance of getting wrapped up before the convention sometime in June. It all depends on what finally gets done in Florida and Michigan. I'm sure they'll be talking about those two states tonight.

[Yog]

While we wait for results, here is a computer simulation of the general election.. :p

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/8120/fightlb6.gif

[Turbogeek]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/clinton-fundraiser-in-obama-race-jibe/2008/03/12/1205125943792.html

Annnnnnd someone in the Clinton camp plays the race card!

Can you smell the self destruction and desperation?

[Yog]

Obama projected winner of Mississippi!

CNN Exit Poll:
Obama: 58.72%
Clinton: 41.28%

I am happy for Obama, but this is disturbing:



Clinton Obama
Democrat 58.1% 79.7%
Republican 22.7% 3.2%
Independent 19.2% 17.1%
100% 100%

Looks like 3.2% of Obama's vote came from republicans, while a full 22.7% of Clinton's vote were republicans. WHY are republicans allowed to sabotage democrat primaries? That is not what democracy is about. In the meanwhile, you have people like Rush Limbaugh (http://www.dissidentvoice.org/2008/03/will-republicans-pick-the-next-presidential-nominee-of-the-democratic-party) encouraging this stuff.

[Jedi Master Carr]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/clinton-fundraiser-in-obama-race-jibe/2008/03/12/1205125943792.html

Annnnnnd someone in the Clinton camp plays the race card!

Can you smell the self destruction and desperation?

I can't believe Ferraro. That is just a low blow and Hillary's campaign arent even trying to distance themselves from her.

[Cat X]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/clinton-fundraiser-in-obama-race-jibe/2008/03/12/1205125943792.html

Annnnnnd someone in the Clinton camp plays the race card!

Can you smell the self destruction and desperation?

I can't believe Ferraro. That is just a low blow and Hillary's campaign arent even trying to distance themselves from her.

And then it gets better because she not only repeated said remarks but defended them!

And said remarks are getting air time as well as talking heads pointing out how ridiculous they are. This is going to play out very badly for HRC.

[Zem-El Vymes]

Obama projected winner of Mississippi!

CNN Exit Poll:
Obama: 58.72%
Clinton: 41.28%

I am happy for Obama, but this is disturbing:



Clinton Obama
Democrat 58.1% 79.7%
Republican 22.7% 3.2%
Independent 19.2% 17.1%
100% 100%
Looks like 3.2% of Obama's vote came from republicans, while a full 22.7% of Clinton's vote were republicans. WHY are republicans allowed to sabotage democrat primaries? That is not what democracy is about. In the meanwhile, you have people like Rush Limbaugh (http://www.dissidentvoice.org/2008/03/will-republicans-pick-the-next-presidential-nominee-of-the-democratic-party) encouraging this stuff.

I'd rather have it this way instead of compelling people into party registration to be honest. My family voted en masse as GOP scabs for Hillary and yet look how my state turned out. I've sabotage-voted before as well.

[Jedieb]

The only thing the sabotage voting did was prevent Hillary from losing by 30 points instead of 24. (CNN has them at 61 to 37 with 99% in). It's an old game, but on the plus side, it does give candidates who do well with independents a fighting chance against those entreched with party loyalists. I've never cast a sabotage vote, but I can see why some would. I think it's petty, but I still favor open primaries.

I wonder if Ferraro is now going to go on a rampage for people voting for Hillary just because she's a woman? I mean, by her own words that's the only reason people put her on the ticket and ever voted her to elected office. Damn, if only Oprah would run. She'd be unstoppable!

From what I can tell, Clinton is ahead in 3 of the remaning contests, Kentucky(52), West Virginia(28), and Penn(158). Pennsylvania will be the one to watch. Unless she blows him out, she's got no shot at cutting his delegate lead under 100. And the closer he gets to 200, which he has a real shot of doing, the less reluctant the Superdelegates will be to vote against him.

I think there's something to be gained from all the crap being flung from the Clinton campaign and its surrogates. Obama needs to show he can stand up to a tough campaign. It will serve him well in November.

Great, 6 weeks of this nonsense until Penn on 4/22. Ughh.

[Yog]

Ferraro had to resign from Clinton's campaign. Not a minute too soon.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Ferraro had to resign from Clinton's campaign. Not a minute too soon.

Although she is still bashing Obama on the way out.

[Yog]

Although she is still bashing Obama on the way out.

Yeah, she just does not get it (http://www.suntimes.com/news/mitchell/840277,CST-NWS-mitch13.article).

^^
Thinking about it, not even the writer of that article got it. Really, the reason Obama is ahead is because of his ability to inspire, policies that make sense, and running a clean campaign. Obama trancends the usual political bickering.

[Jedieb]

I was watching Hardball last night and he had 3 people on discussing Ferraro's comments and shock of shocks, Pat Buchanan was defending Ferraro for speaking the "truth." It's one thing to say that Obama's race is an asset, but it's entirely different when you say it's the ONLY reason he is where he is. It's ridiculous and she's gonig to keep repeating it as long as someone is willing to shove a microphone in her face. Republicans are laughing their butts off.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23601041/

I haven't seen Olbermann go after Dems on one of his Special Commentaries but he tears Clinton a new one here. This and Spitzer will be all people will be talking about for the next couple of weeks.

[Yog]

^^
Oh man! That Olberman commentary was GOLD! :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

I was watching Hardball last night and he had 3 people on discussing Ferraro's comments and shock of shocks, Pat Buchanan was defending Ferraro for speaking the "truth." It's one thing to say that Obama's race is an asset, but it's entirely different when you say it's the ONLY reason he is where he is. It's ridiculous and she's gonig to keep repeating it as long as someone is willing to shove a microphone in her face. Republicans are laughing their butts off.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23601041/

I haven't seen Olbermann go after Dems on one of his Special Commentaries but he tears Clinton a new one here. This and Spitzer will be all people will be talking about for the next couple of weeks.

I love Olbermann he is the man. He has been all over Clinton for it. I don't get how MSNBC keeps Fascist Pat on the payroll. The man is a holocaust denier and a a racist. The Republican party has even pretty much kicked him out.
Also, it is funny Spitzer was a Hilalry superdeleget, I don't know who the new governor will support but right now she has lost one of those. I don't think his vote will count from jail :p

[Turbogeek]

I love Olbermann he is the man. He has been all over Clinton for it. I don't get how MSNBC keeps Fascist Pat on the payroll. The man is a holocaust denier and a a racist. The Republican party has even pretty much kicked him out.


Ratings. Why do you think Fox is a comple ball of crap and is neither news, nor factual and reduces the intelligence of those who watch it? It's all about ratings and exactly zero about news.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I love Olbermann he is the man. He has been all over Clinton for it. I don't get how MSNBC keeps Fascist Pat on the payroll. The man is a holocaust denier and a a racist. The Republican party has even pretty much kicked him out.


Ratings. Why do you think Fox is a comple ball of crap and is neither news, nor factual and reduces the intelligence of those who watch it? It's all about ratings and exactly zero about news.

I guess they think he can be entertaining with his anti-semetist rhetoric.

[Jedieb]

I was watching Hardball last night and he had 3 people on discussing Ferraro's comments and shock of shocks, Pat Buchanan was defending Ferraro for speaking the "truth." It's one thing to say that Obama's race is an asset, but it's entirely different when you say it's the ONLY reason he is where he is. It's ridiculous and she's gonig to keep repeating it as long as someone is willing to shove a microphone in her face. Republicans are laughing their butts off.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23601041/

I haven't seen Olbermann go after Dems on one of his Special Commentaries but he tears Clinton a new one here. This and Spitzer will be all people will be talking about for the next couple of weeks.

I love Olbermann he is the man. He has been all over Clinton for it. I don't get how MSNBC keeps Fascist Pat on the payroll. The man is a holocaust denier and a a racist. The Republican party has even pretty much kicked him out.
Also, it is funny Spitzer was a Hilalry superdeleget, I don't know who the new governor will support but right now she has lost one of those. I don't think his vote will count from jail :p


I don't remember his name, but I know the man replacing Spitzer is the first legally blind governor in history, at least that's what I remember hearing. I also believe he's African American. Draw your own conclusions from that.

[Turbogeek]

I don't remember his name, but I know the man replacing Spitzer is the first legally blind governor in history, at least that's what I remember hearing. I also believe he's African American. Draw your own conclusions from that.


We have a legally blind graphics artist in the office who does incredible work. Fun fact for the day.

Noticed that also some of Edward's delegates swtiched to Obama in the delegate allocation from Iowa, 7 in total if I recall correctly. HRC also lost a delgate. Now means Obama leads by at the worst 120 delegates including Supers - and Supers are still slowly being added to the Obama list. He wiped out any gains just in delegates that HRC made with Ohio.

Amazing how well he is really doing

[Jedieb]

Without a doubt, this is the roughest stretch that Obama has had to face. The combination of Clinton's 'wins' in Texas and Ohio and the comments by Pastor Wright have effected him in the polls and the media. Many polls have him trailing both Clinton and McCain. He's never going to lose the delegate lead, but if he can't get a handle on what's happening right now then Clinton's case to the Superdelegates will get that much stronger. Some polls have him trailing in Penn. by close to 20 pts. If he loses big there the Democrats are going to have a real problem. This thing could be wrapped up in June once all the primaries are over, but a big Penn. loss and it will drag on to the convention.

The Wright controversy could dog Obama until Nov. I gaurantee you people are looking into using this to Swift Boat Obama. Remember, virtually everything the Swift Boaters threw at Kerry ended up being proven to be false, but the damage was done. Sometime in October someone will say they have proof of Obama being in attendance when Wright said "Evil Whitey did etc, etc,..." It will be irrelevant if 2 weeks later it gets proven to be incorrect, the damage will be done. Any candidate has to be prepared to fight off this kind of damage. I hope Obama is up to it.

[Turbogeek]

He already answered the Wright controversy brilliantly with this...
'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWe7wTVbLUU

AND THEN you find out that the full unedited versions of those sermons are availible.

http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/21/the-full-story-behind-rev-jeremiah-wrights-911-sermon/

Oh waaaaaaaaait a moment....

No actually, this is turning out to be a real plus, because it once and for all depth charges "OBAMA IS A SECET MUSLIM!!!" and he has opened up race as a true positive for himself. The only place that seems to want to bleat on about this nonsense is cable news and frankly they will stop bleating once they realise no one is listening to them anymore.

Now your sauying the swiftboatign affected Kerry? Actually no. He lost not because of a bunch of lying sacks of excrement gave die hard and brain dead Republicans more excuse not to see the failing of the idiot they elected back in, Kerry lost Democrat and Independants because.... he was a hopeless candidate. Obama wont let that happen - the die hard racists and die hard Repubicans will never vote Obama and they are exactly the type who will never do more than accept what a talking head tells them. However.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvMbeVQj6Lw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOdlnzkeoyQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yOR_srOUI0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT7LxAKgYeI

People who could be swayed will find the real truth about Reverend Wright and will get angry enough to spread these around. There's 9 months to go. If you dont like seeing a good man being lied about and taken out of context, you will show waverign supporters what this Reverand Wright really is like. The more peopel talk about Wright, the more it comes out just how good he really is.

[Vince]

"...And you better shut up before I give you somethin' to cry about!"

Dear lord, I had a flashback to my own childhood with that anecdote. :lol

[Turbogeek]

So Wright didnt turn out to be all that bad for Obama at all. His speech did of course set the tomne of the response.

On the other hand, Clinton has a wee bit of a problem

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/25/223848/497/804/484307

[Jedieb]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

Been on vacation, started coaching baseball, and end of the year testing is fast approaching, I'm swamped. The polls in Penn. show the race there is starting to tighten up. Today, for the first time I saw a poll that actually had Obama leading in Penn. In a survey of over 1,200 registered dems Obama had a 2 point lead over Hillary. If you look at the link above they've got several polls showing Obama falling behind during the Wright controverys but inching closer after that. It looks like some Dems are starting to see the numbers and may be bailing on Hillary in order to put an end to the bloodletting. I'd still be surprised if he won in Penn., but if he keeps it close it'd be another dent in Hillary's long shot bid for the nomination.

[Jedi Master Carr]

If he can keep it close it will be very tough on her especially since Obama will probably win the next two big primary states (North Carolina and Oregon) by big margins.

[Yog]

I watched the democratic TV debate yesterday, and I can say it was without a doubt the worst debate in the presidential campaign so far. The winner was McCain and the loser was the TV viewer. Sean Hannity could not come up with more slanted questions. I spent most of the time watching the debate saying to myself "Whaaaaaat?? Is this for real?"

Basically, they spent the first 50 minutes asking Obama about the "bitter" story, the Wright story, then there were insinuations about connections to a domestic terrorist who was active when he was eight years old. They also asked Obama about a flag pin and his patriotism, and then they even allowed Clinton to assert that Obama had links with Hamas (!) and Farrakhan once more, without allowing a rebuttal. And when Obama suggested the campaign is about discussing the the isssues Americans care about, Clinton just piled on. One of the questions was "does Pastor Wright love America as much as you do?" What kind of a question is that?

As a comparison they asked Clinton about her trip to Bosnia and the sniper story, which was really awkard btw, because Clinton basically admitted she knew she was lying (the green line showing the viewers positive / negative reactions reached the lowest all night). Yet, Obama stayed classy in response. There were no questions about Colombia trade deal, Geraldine Ferraro / Bob Johnson etc.

Then when finally they got to some real issues, the moderator went on asking about the gas prices / taxes, asking "can you pledge read my lips, no more taxes". Thank you ABC for wasting my time. If that channel had any integrity, it would appologize to the TV viewers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I didn't watch it and I am glad I didn't.

[Yog]

Just 3 days until the critical Pennsylvania primary. Obama is closing in on Clinton on the polls there. Here is a speech he held in Philadelphia in front of 35,000 people :D

<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/QORZY11IHMo&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/QORZY11IHMo&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/7492/d66cf157f0af5f1fe8b4e65wm7.jpg

[Turbogeek]

How's this for a blast from the past? Obama does a whistlestop!

Videos

http://youtube.com/results?search_q...mp;search_type= (http://youtube.com/results?search_query=obama+donation&search_type=)

Another "All Aboard!" video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uilDT22mHc

"Get on board the change train"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNSWA_B9_mA

There's something quite whimsical about this style of campaining. And yet totally awesome

[Yog]

I laughed too hard about this one :lol
How Hillary Can Still Win (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBGyuYKlxIg&eurl)

[General Dan]

Obama needs to dispell this Bittergate crap or he's going to lose :(

[Turbogeek]

Obama needs to dispell this Bitter crap or he's going to lose :(

No he does not. He needs to embrace it because it's absolutely and completely true, it's a message that cuts through and gets people listening. He needs to ride it for all it's worth.

And frankly it's the media who just doesnt get it on that one. People are bitter, they are angry. He absolutly nailed the reason perfectly.

Key sign it's the media who has a problem is that the attach a -gate to it. Anything that the meida ahve a -gate you know wont be handled well.

[Vipul Chandrashekar]

It was worded poorly, and the way it came out is not true at all. These are the people he needs to court and he's going to burn bridges if he doesn't handle this well.

[Cat X]

It was worded poorly, and the way it came out is not true at all. These are the people he needs to court and he's going to burn bridges if he doesn't handle this well.

You must have listened to a different message created by ABC or FOX. The one I heard was completely and utterly true, especially when you dont just listen to the 5 second sound grab. Listen to the whole thing and he has it 100% right.

This is just another example of a media who takes a tiny bit of a larger message, removes it from the rest of what he said and then beats it up for all it's worth. People ARE bitter and they do turn to guns and religion, because they just dont see things change and they really dont think things can be changed. So they fall back on things they feel they can deal with.

The real issue is a terrible media like ABC or FOX pouring complete crap everywhere and makign issues where none should exist and making distortions to make cute headlines.

[Jedieb]

Tomorrow is the big day. I'm just hoping that most of the undecideds 'decide' to end this race once and for all. I'm really curious to see how many voters register and cast their votes not soley for Obama, but because they realize Hillary can't possibly win without a Convention Superdelegate Firesale.

Just about every poll out there has the race in single digits and many of them are within the margin of error. I think she's going to pull it out a by at least a couple points. The only way he'll win Penn. is if he gets a significant influx of new voters to register and many just decide enough is enough, it's time to end this.

[Turbogeek]

Anything less than double digits for Hillary will be a disaster. She doesnt just need to win, she needs to win by a huge amount to keep the race alive. She also released fund raising numbers, they basically say her campain is going broke. 10 million on hand, 8 million in debts. Obama on the other hand has 42 million with no debt.

He cant win tomorrow, but if it's 6 points only win to Hillary like the polls suggest, she's as good as gone. She'll be campaining in a dodgy caravan

[Cat X]

Early exits say too close to call!

If it really is like that and the result is uncertain for hours,Clinton wont get the huge victory she needs and we will all know her race is over, she will not and can not beat Obama for the nomination.

Hang onto y0 hats, this one looks good!

[Jedieb]

The networks are already calling Penn. for Clinton. And this was with less that 8% of the votes in. Obama couldn't win big enough in the cities to offset Clinton's strengths in rural areas and blue collar Penn voters. I'm worried that such an early call could mean she's going to get close to the double digit win she needed to drag this out all the way to the convention. Ugh.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am afraid Hillary will take the democrat party down like Hamilton took the Federalist party down. Could the Democrat part follow the Whigs and Federalists parties?

[Cat X]

No, they wont. When Obama loses by only 6% (and that's still very much on the cards given there are some big likely Obama areas not counted as yet in Philly suburbs), the Supers will begin to end it. And when NC is a huge blowout for Obama, the narrative will turn to "So why the hell aint she dropped out yet?"

Relax, Obama only needs to stay close tonight and he's bagged the nom.

[Yog]

Pittsburg raised Clinton's percentage, and it is now 54.3% / 45.8% = 8.5% margin, with 9,177 out of 9,263 Districts counted (99.07%) <a href=http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/>[source]</a>. Of course the media reports this as a "big win", and Clinton says she "turned the tide".. whatever. I think it will be nice if Obama can keep it under 9%. If nothing else, it will have the news editorials around eating their words for proclaiming double digit win. She used to have a 20 percent lead in PA, and that's actually what she needed to stay in the race for delegates.

Edit: Apparently, the above site I linked to have the numbers wrong somewhere, and the margin is more like 9.3%.

[Turbogeek]

While I would have liked to have seen 6%, your quite right in the end. She needed at least 16% margin to credibly stay alive in the race and to have a hope in hell of closing the gap. 8-9% just is not good enough. She had a wild hope of getting the delgates, but now she needs to win every single reaminign contest by 26%

And she lost ground in every single deomgraphic in arguably her strongest state AND started 25 points in front. She's losing her base. She threw the sink at Obama and frankly if he could stay that close in a place where Hilary had ALL the advangage... there is no hope for her left. NC will be a total wipeout for her, she will lose that by enough to wipe out the gains made today. Indiana is close and knowing how fast Obama makes up groud while trailing, I'd say there's a damn good chance she will lose there too.

Obama needs 309 to win, Hilary 438. There are 308 Super delegates left to declare a preference, 408 primary delegates up for grabs. 716 in total. Which menas Obamas requlres just 43% of all delegates left to win. Clinton's campain is broke too.

And it was notible how Obama's speech tonight was less about the nomiation but about setting up a platform to attack McCain. Obama knows the end for clinton has arrived. He's going after the real target now.

[Turbogeek]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwd88C25J-0

And a video explaining how screwed Hilary is.

[Jedieb]

Make no mistake, last night was a BIG win for Hillary and a bad night for Obama. She got the double digit win she needed. Most of the numbers she generated last night are going to give her ammo for continuing her fight right up until the Superdelegates decide enough is enough. Last night's win probably kept dozens of SD's from casting their votes for Obama. With a close race Obama could have convinced those delegates to cast their votes his way, effectively ending the race before the end of the month. Now they're going to keep watching the bloodletting for weeks to come.

Primaries, Dates, Delegates, & Probable winners
Guam 5/3 (2) Push?
Indiana 5/6 (36) Push
North Carolina 5/6 (58) Obama (+15)
West Virginia 5/13 (14) Clinton (+10)
Kentucky 5/20 (26) Clinton (+30)
Oregon 5/20 (26) Obama (+10)
Puerto Rico 6/1 (28) (+10) * PR is winner take ALL.
Montana 6/3 (8) Push
South Dakota 6/3 (8) Obama (+10)

9 contests to go, and it looks like we're probably going to see something like a 5 to 4 split. Regardless of who comes out ahead, Obama will still be ahead when it's all said and done, but that doesn't matter to Hillary. She's got the ammo to keep fighting now. The only thing that can stop her are the SD's getting off their butts and ending this. I don't see many of them doing that now because of last night. These delegates hadn't made up their minds BEFORE last night, I doubt they'll be able to now. My best hope is that sometime in June when all the dust has settled and all the desperate phone calls have been made that the SD's finally pledge their votes. Because if they wait for the convention it could be a train wreck.

[CMJ]

I always wanted to see a razor thin presedential race in my lifetime and then we got 2000. Always wanted to see a Convention Fight. It'd be sweet if we got one of those too. :D

[Yog]

No chance it will make it to convention floor. It is too little, too late (http://www.nypost.com/seven/04232008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/too_little__too_late_107751.htm). Obama only needs about 40% of the remaining delegates (supers and pledged) to hit 2025. There is not a snowballs chance in hell majority of the superdelegates will go against the popular vote AND the pledged count. Clinton only delayed the process, and I think deep down she knows the race is lost at this point, even though she acts like she won the lottery.

She did not get that double digit victory either, that is a rounding error (she got 9.3% likely to drop to abou 9.1% or so), but double digits makes for better headlines in the media and feels better for mathematically challenged presidential candidates. Close, but no cigar.

[Turbogeek]

Make no mistake, last night was a BIG win for Hillary and a bad night for Obama. She got the double digit win she needed.

No she didnt. 8.6%. She needed 16% or better. Last night was the end of any real chance Hillary had.

And how was last night bad when just three weeks ago Obama was 20 points behind in the strongest state Hillary had? I'm sorry but your listenign to the MSM too much. They are the only ones that want this to continue because it's great ratings. . The DNC however and Obama... they know the real story. As I pointed out last night Obama's changed his message and he is going after his real opponent. OPbama showed he can make big inroads to the bitter guns and religion crowd. He needs time but he can do that. If he can continue to do that, McCain is 100% toast.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I always wanted to see a razor thin presedential race in my lifetime and then we got 2000. Always wanted to see a Convention Fight. It'd be sweet if we got one of those too. :D

I don't because it could be the end of the democratic party as we know it and pretty much give Mccain the nomination on a silver platter. Hopefully, Dean and Al Gore will make some calls to SD to make them end it.

[CMJ]

I don't because it could be the end of the democratic party as we know it and pretty much give Mccain the nomination on a silver platter. Hopefully, Dean and Al Gore will make some calls to SD to make them end it.

Dude, McCain already won the nomination. ;)

But seriously, how could anyone not wanna see the drama of a convention fight once in their lifetime? Hell, it'd be awesome if no one won on a 1st ballot or 2nd and they had to go to a 3rd choice. :D

(I'm not saying for this year specifically...but ANY year! It'd be a political junkie's wet dream to have a dark horse come in to win the nomination)

[Jedieb]

Make no mistake, last night was a BIG win for Hillary and a bad night for Obama. She got the double digit win she needed.

No she didnt. 8.6%. She needed 16% or better. Last night was the end of any real chance Hillary had.

And how was last night bad when just three weeks ago Obama was 20 points behind in the strongest state Hillary had? I'm sorry but your listenign to the MSM too much. They are the only ones that want this to continue because it's great ratings. . The DNC however and Obama... they know the real story. As I pointed out last night Obama's changed his message and he is going after his real opponent. OPbama showed he can make big inroads to the bitter guns and religion crowd. He needs time but he can do that. If he can continue to do that, McCain is 100% toast.
'
It's not just MSN, it's CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc..., go check all their sites. The "double digit win" phrase is all over the place. Even if the final numbers come in under 10, it's still going to be called a decisive win. (Remember, Obama outspent her around 3 to 1 in Penn.) For last night to have been a 'good' loss Obama would have to have kept the margin under 5 and done better with older and blue collar voters. Make no mistake, I'm an Obama supporter and I voted for him in my primary, but he LOST last night. Hillary got what she needed to keep going. I'm not happy about it, but I'm not going to deny it happened. She's going to lose this nomination, but last night allowed her to stay in the race until the very last primary. He's had a couple of chances to knock her out and he hasn't been able to land the knockout punch.

A lot of this will get swept under the rug once the nominee is announced, but until then it's going to be one news cycle of Dem squabbling after another.

[Jedieb]

I don't because it could be the end of the democratic party as we know it and pretty much give Mccain the nomination on a silver platter. Hopefully, Dean and Al Gore will make some calls to SD to make them end it.

Dude, McCain already won the nomination. ;)

But seriously, how could anyone not wanna see the drama of a convention fight once in their lifetime? Hell, it'd be awesome if no one won on a 1st ballot or 2nd and they had to go to a 3rd choice. :D

(I'm not saying for this year specifically...but ANY year! It'd be a political junkie's wet dream to have a dark horse come in to win the nomination)

You're being mean CMJ, you know he meant 'Presidency!' ;) (I know you're kidding.)

I'd hate to see your dream come true. I think it would just kill the Dems come November. But if there were some kind of dark horse to "steal" the nomination then you would start seeing some fantastic scenarios where names like Edwards and even Gore start getting bandied about.

[Cat X]

It's not just MSN, it's CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc..., go check all their sites. The "double digit win" phrase is all over the place. Even if the final numbers come in under 10, it's still going to be called a decisive win. (Remember, Obama outspent her around 3 to 1 in Penn.) For last night to have been a 'good' loss Obama would have to have kept the margin under 5 and done better with older and blue collar voters. Make no mistake, I'm an Obama supporter and I voted for him in my primary, but he LOST last night. Hillary got what she needed to keep going. I'm not happy about it, but I'm not going to deny it happened. She's going to lose this nomination, but last night allowed her to stay in the race until the very last primary. He's had a couple of chances to knock her out and he hasn't been able to land the knockout punch.

A lot of this will get swept under the rug once the nominee is announced, but until then it's going to be one news cycle of Dem squabbling after another.



MSM = MainStream Media. And that includes them all - we are finding out just how rubbish they all are. Ignore them and look at the real facts.

Look, the simple fact is that Clinton has everything going for her in Penn - name recognition, her family came from there, she lived there, her major support base are there - so what if she got outspent, this IS her strongest of all support base. She was 20 points up three weeks ago. There is nothing decisive or great about this "win". Obama was NEVER going to win. Never. The target was to keep the win below 10% and he did according to the real offical results, not the BS parroted by the MSM. She knew that 16% was what she really needed to survive and she didnt get it. 10% victory to her WAS the knockout point.

The other reason why Obama spent the money was to build name recognition and a election apparatis in the state - not for the primary but for the General. He's running a 50 state campaign where every vote is important and he is going to make the Republicans work for every vote and fight in every location with a big and enthusiastic support base. This is why he spent the cash.

The meme about "knockout blow" ignores the fact that Obama is
up against a Deity in the Democrat camp. So lets turn this around - why when she had all everything going for her, why has she not knocked out an upstart? It's HER who the question should be asked. Why has she, the wife of a former President, loved by his own party and supporters, not been able to knock out Obama?

[Jedieb]

It's not just MSN, it's CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc..., go check all their sites. The "double digit win" phrase is all over the place. Even if the final numbers come in under 10, it's still going to be called a decisive win. (Remember, Obama outspent her around 3 to 1 in Penn.) For last night to have been a 'good' loss Obama would have to have kept the margin under 5 and done better with older and blue collar voters. Make no mistake, I'm an Obama supporter and I voted for him in my primary, but he LOST last night. Hillary got what she needed to keep going. I'm not happy about it, but I'm not going to deny it happened. She's going to lose this nomination, but last night allowed her to stay in the race until the very last primary. He's had a couple of chances to knock her out and he hasn't been able to land the knockout punch.

A lot of this will get swept under the rug once the nominee is announced, but until then it's going to be one news cycle of Dem squabbling after another.



MSM = MainStream Media. And that includes them all - we are finding out just how rubbish they all are. Ignore them and look at the real facts.



:lol Sorry about that, but I've never used that acronym, my brain did a quick scan and I assumed you simply meant MSNBC. :)

As for the media not accurately reporting the results, just where are you finding numbers that show her significantly below 10%? The states' own election site has it at around 9.2%, and if you simply round each of their percentages off you would get 10%. It's close enough that it's ridiculous to argue that she fell short of what she needed to keep dragging this thing out. If 16% is what she "needed to survive" then why didn't she pack up her tent and drop out of the race Wed. morning? Because if she'd lost by even a single point Tuesday you can bet that's what she would have been forced to do. If your argument is correct, then she should be dropping out of the race any day now. She's NOT because last night gave her the ammo to keep going until early June.



The meme about "knockout blow" ignores the fact that Obama is up against a Deity in the Democrat camp. So lets turn this around - why when she had all everything going for her, why has she not knocked out an upstart? It's HER who the question should be asked. Why has she, the wife of a former President, loved by his own party and supporters, not been able to knock out Obama?

Look, I AGREE with you on much of this. In fact, I'd argue that she LOST this election back on Super Tuesday. Then Obama hammered away at her with that string of victories he put together after Super Tuesday. She was dead in the water until Texas and Ohio. Those wins resuscitated her campaign. Without them this race would have been OVER. This was despite the fact that she actually came out of Texas with FEWER delegates. But those popular votes gave her the ammo to keep fighting. Just like Tuesday gave her the ammo to keep fighting until the last primary. That she's fighting a seemingly hopeless battle is irrelevant to my point. She's done just enough to stay in there and drag this thing out. If I'm wrong, then we should be seeing her drop out any day now.

Anybody think that's going to happen? Anyone? Bueller?!

It's not the 'MSM' that's keeping her in this thing. It's the fact that she knows how to fight when she's cornered and people who take her or Bill lightly do so at their own risk. She will NOT give up until the last damn Super Delegate casts vote #2025 for Obama. She'll be on the phone harraunging and dealing until Obama gets that magic number. I'm not saying I approve of this in any way, I'm just saying this is what she's gonig to do. She's going to fight until the bitter end.

[Yog]

If 16% is what she "needed to survive" then why didn't she pack up her tent and drop out of the race Wed. morning?
Because Hillary is going to stay in the race until the media, Dean, Al Gore, and the rest of the superdelegates starts chasing her around with pitchforks. There is an ocean of difference between the results she needs to have a shot at actually winning the nomination and the kind of results leading her to pack the tent. Prior to election night she said "a win is a win". That tells a lot what she would do. Her behavior has nothing to do with mathematical probabilities to win. If media says "big win", that is what she'll play along with. Does not matter if it's true or not.

Clinton must have realised where the race is heading though. I am not even sure she is really campaigning to win anymore. For all I know, she could be doing all this negative campaigning and splitting the democrats in half intentionally, to sabotage Obama's chances. Then she can run for it again in 4 years and say "See? You need a Clinton to win vs the Republicans." I would not put it beyond her.

Her latest shenanigan is proclaiming a lead in popular votes, even though Obama has about 500,000 more votes than she has. How does she figure that? By adding the Michigan and Florida results into the tally. Suddenly she leads by 100,000 votes. The word pathological liar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathological_liar) springs to mind..

Edit: On that note.. :lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AglTZkv2Xb0

[CMJ]

When Ted Kennedy ran agaist Carter(the SITTING President mind you) in 1980 he was even further behind at this point than Clinton. He took it to the Convention and tried to overturn PLEDGED delegates minds once there.

To think this is over is idiotic. When you get this close - you will draw alot of blood to win if you have to.

[Jedi Master Carr]

When Ted Kennedy ran agaist Carter(the SITTING President mind you) in 1980 he was even further behind at this point than Clinton. He took it to the Convention and tried to overturn PLEDGED delegates minds once there.

To think this is over is idiotic. When you get this close - you will draw alot of blood to win if you have to.

Well, I think that was because the democrats knew Carter was a goner and tried to get Kennedy to do something because of his name. It wouldn't have worked. I just think this strategy is a bad one for the Party. Hillary reminds me of Hamilton who only cared about his own ego. I am hoping Obama wins Indiana. If he can sweep those two states in two weeks, I think he will get a wave of SuperDelegate support. And oh I am not sure how I made that mistake with MCcain :p

[Turbogeek]

When Ted Kennedy ran agaist Carter(the SITTING President mind you) in 1980 he was even further behind at this point than Clinton. He took it to the Convention and tried to overturn PLEDGED delegates minds once there.

To think this is over is idiotic. When you get this close - you will draw alot of blood to win if you have to.


No, to think there is any chance she can win or that Dean will allow it to go to the convention is to be huffing something not legal - and they dont have a weak President who was doomed to be beaten in one corner. They have a guy who's igniting their base. This will not be 1980

The narrative is turning and the MSM are questioning why she's staying in. Supers are starting to drop to Obama and she's staring at NC which will wipe out all gains from Penn. She wont have any talking points or reason left.

[CMJ]

I'm not saying she'll win the nomination...it's incredibly unlikely(nothing is really impossible until the floor vote - McCain could still technically somehow lose the GOP nomination) as everyone knows. But as I said, when you get this close to the nomination people don't just give up graciously. If Supers really wanted to decide this already, they would've done so.

Dean can try to force people to state their intentions after Peurto Rico, but he really can't DO anything to people if they don't. It'll probably be over by mid June, but I would never bet on it. Not with the Clinton machine in full force for the last 6 weeks when she was DEAD...and I mean DEAD before Ohio/Texas/Pennsylvania.

[Jedieb]

I'm not saying she'll win the nomination...it's incredibly unlikely(nothing is really impossible until the floor vote - McCain could still technically somehow lose the GOP nomination) as everyone knows. But as I said, when you get this close to the nomination people don't just give up graciously. If Supers really wanted to decide this already, they would've done so.

Dean can try to force people to state their intentions after Peurto Rico, but he really can't DO anything to people if they don't. It'll probably be over by mid June, but I would never bet on it. Not with the Clinton machine in full force for the last 6 weeks when she was DEAD...and I mean DEAD before Ohio/Texas/Pennsylvania.

Her campaign was a train wreck before Texas and Ohio. People were already starting to compare it to Guiliani's. The sad thing is that Texas and Ohio did NOT give her a mathematical chance to win the delegates needed. All it did was give her political ammunition to keep fighting. She's taken that and run with it. I think Indiana is going to be huge. There's chatter today about it being a dead heat, but Obama's been leading in that state by around 3-5 points for a few weeks. His leads are within the MOE's, but he's consistently been ahead. If he trounces her as expected in NC and wins Indiana then I think you'll start to see a significant number of Superdelegates starts to declare themselves for Obama. If she manages to win Indiana then the bloodletting will continue. The best case scenario for Obama would be a "double digit" win in Indiana. With that you'd start to see party leaders openly pressuring her to concede.

Yog mentioned the popular vote argument Hillary's been using this week. It's full of holes for several reasons, but people should still make a mental note of it. Because if she loses IN and gets clobbered in NC she'll fall behind Obama again, even with Michigan and Florida counting. What will she argue then?

I really want to believe that we're so far away from November that much of this will be 'ancient' history by the time the nominee is decided. Something that should cheer up supporters of both candidates is that McCain doesn't seem to be able to take advantage of all this squabbling. He keeps pulling even or slightly ahead in head to head matchups with both Dem candidates. You'd think he'd be able to pump up his numbers with all of this infighting going on.

[Jedieb]

Wow, I wasn't expecting anything like this until AFTER Indiana and NC.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/25/major-clinton-fundraiser-switches-to-obama/

[Yog]

^^ Yeah, Obama definitely has the momentum as far as superdelegates go. He is what, only 20 behind now? I kinda lost track. Total number of delegates he is still far ahead, despite the loss in Pennsylvania (Clinton gained only about 10 delegates there, I think?). Of course, the bigger problem right now for Obama is the drop in polls. Don't get me started about the Rev. Wright debacle. It's a good thing this comes up now rather than november though. I'm really fed up with the media, and particularly people like Hannity / Bill O'Reilly.

On a more amusing note, here is a video. Empire Strikes Barack! :)

<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/a8lvc-azCXY&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/a8lvc-azCXY&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

Tonight, Guam is up for voting. Obama is leading there accoding to CNN:


With 12 out of 19 villages reporting, Obama has 899 votes (53.9 percent) compared to 769 votes (46.1 percent) for Clinton.

[Yog]

Reportedly, Obama won Guam with 7 votes. Yes, you read that right, 7 votes.

Delegate wise, this means:



The pledged delegates: We get 8, but they only get half a vote each, = 4 votes.

Superdelegates: Bordallo, our elected House delegate, two Committeepersons, one each have gone to each candidate, and the Chair/Vice Chair, who we elected today, both of whom are for Obama = 5 votes.

Total: 5-3 Obama right now, if Bordallo follows the results we'd get 6-3.



According to this (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/3/15329/18032/91/508419), Obama may have gained up to 8 superdelegates today:

* NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colon;

* 1 add-on delegate from SC;

* 1 add-on delegate from MD;

* The new Guam Dem party chair & vice-chair (Paulino/Lujan); and

* 3 add-on delegates from IL.

All in all, a good day for Obama.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah it is, I am hoping he can win both Indiana and NC and maybe that will about end it. If he could do that, then the Super delegates would start coming to him in force and I think Edwards might come out and back him too. I think he has NC I know the vote has gotten closer but she has too much grown to make up there. 1/2 of the voters will be Obama's base so he has that one. Indiana could go either way. After that it gets murky. Kentucky and West Virginia seem to lean towards Hillary. Oregon, North Dakota, and Montana seem to lean towards Obama. Oregon would be a big win though since it has more delegates than the rest of the states combined after Tuesday that is.

[Figrin D'an]

There isn't going to be an end to this any time soon. I'm completely convinced that Hillary's entire strategy right now is "hang on as long as possible and hope that Obama makes a catastrophic mistake." That's essentially the only way she will win at this point, and she knows it, so it's what she is going to run with.

[Yog]

Only two days until the primary in North Carolina and Indiana. Obama is said to do well on the polls in NC. Dead heat in Indiana.

From Obama's "closing argument" speech in Indiana:

"That’s why the only way a black man named Barack Obama, who was born in Hawaii, and started his career on the streets of Chicago, is standing before you today,” Obama said, “and that’s the only way I can win this race -- if you decide that you’ve had enough of the way things are; if you decide if you decide that this election is bigger than flag pins or sniper fire or the comments of a former pastor -- bigger than the differences between what we look like or where we come from or what party we belong to.”
Source: msnbc (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/03/977059.aspx)


This is the sort of message which makes me believe in Obama. Full YouTube video of the speech here :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wf8N1Ucfb7E

[Jedi Master Carr]

There isn't going to be an end to this any time soon. I'm completely convinced that Hillary's entire strategy right now is "hang on as long as possible and hope that Obama makes a catastrophic mistake." That's essentially the only way she will win at this point, and she knows it, so it's what she is going to run with.

Well that is her strategy and if she can win Indiana she will still hang in there. I think it could go into mid June right now. If it goes farther it will really hurt the Party.

[Yog]

If it goes farther it will really hurt the Party.

I don't think Clinton really cares about what hurts the party. Check this one out:

Clinton Camp Considering Nuclear Option To Overtake Delegate Lead (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-considering_n_100051.html)



Clinton Camp Considering Nuclear Option To Overtake Delegate Lead

Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.

With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month -- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.

Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama forces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two other major hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in the Clinton camp, under specific circumstances:

First, this coming Tuesday, Clinton would have to win Indiana and lose North Carolina by a very small margin - or better yet, win the Tar Heel state. She would also have to demonstrate continued strength in the contests before May 31.

Second, and equally important, her argument that she is a better general election candidate than Obama -- that he has major weaknesses which have only been recently revealed -- would have to rapidly gain traction, not only within the media, where she has experienced some success, but within the broad activist ranks of the Democratic Party.

Under that optimistic scenario, some Clinton operatives believe she could overcome several massive stumbling blocks:

-- Clinton loyalists on the Rules Committee would have to be persuaded to put their political futures on the line by defying major party constituencies, especially black leaders backing Barack Obama. Committee members are unlikely to take such a step unless they are convinced that Clinton has a strong chance of winning the nomination.

Former DNC and South Carolina Democratic Party chair Donald Fowler -- a Hillary loyalist -- would, for example, face an outpouring of anger from South Carolina Democrats if he were to go along with such a strategy.

-- A controversial decision to seat the two delegations, as currently constituted, would be appealed by the Obama campaign to the Democratic National Convention's Credentials Committee.

The full make-up of the Credentials Committee will not be determined until all the primaries are completed, but the pattern of Clinton and Obama victories so far clearly suggests that Obama delegates on that committee will outnumber Clinton delegates. Obama will not, however, have a majority, according to most estimates, and the balance of power will be held by delegates appointed by DNC chair Howard Dean.

For the scenario to work, then, Dean would have to be convinced of Clinton's superior viability in the general election, and that she has a strong chance of defeating McCain next November.

One of the arguments the Clinton campaign is privately making to autonomous "super" or "automatic" delegates, as well as to delegates technically "pledged" to Obama as a result of primary and caucus results, is that the campaign shifted dramatically in roughly mid-February. At that point, Clinton supporters contend, the economy replaced Iraq as the dominant issue among primary voters, and that transition led to Clinton's successes in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

Clinton people also make the case that the past six weeks have seen examples of Obama's political vulnerabilities: his wife's "proud to be an American" remarks, the emergence of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, wider coverage of Obama's ties to 1960s radicals Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, "bittergate," the flag pin imbroglio, and "hand on the heart" accusations -- all impugning Obama's patriotism.

* * *

The controversy over Michigan and Florida grows out of the decision of both states to flout national party rules prohibiting all but a few states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- from holding primaries or caucuses before February 5, 2008. Michigan held its primary on January 15 and Florida on January 29.

On December 1, 2007, well before the contests were held, the Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to refuse to seat either state's delegation at the August 2008 convention in Denver.

When the contests were actually held, none of the candidates actively campaigned in either state. In Michigan, Obama had his name taken off the ballot. Clinton "won" both contests.

The Obama campaign contends that the primaries in the two states were not legitimate, especially in Michigan where voters could not cast a ballot for Obama. Clinton "won" the Michigan contest with 55 percent, while 40 percent voted "uncommitted" and the remainder went to minor candidates.

Obama manager David Plouffe has argued that the only way to seat the Michigan delegation would be to divide the delegates evenly between Clinton and Obama: "A 50-50 split would be fair."

Many Democrats, including DNC chair Howard Dean, believe it is critically important to reach some kind of compromise to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations in order not to alienate voters in the two battleground states, each of which could be pivotal in the November general election.

In the case of Florida, there are a number of proposals under consideration. One would be to seat the delegation as is, but give each delegate only one half a vote. Another would be to cut the number of Florida delegates in half.

Spokesmen for the Obama campaign declined to discuss their strategies for dealing with the May 31 Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting, or to speculate on what they think the Clinton forces with try to do.

[Yog]

^^ The "nuclear option" I posted above is no longer hypotethical:

Clinton Camp Says It Will Use The Nuclear Option (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-considering_n_100051.html).

Hillary Clinton's campaign today acknowledged plans to try to win seating of the disputed Michigan and Florida delegations to the Democratic Nation Convention at a meeting of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31.

Clinton now also tries to change the benchmark from 2025 to 2,209...
Clinton campaign retools delegate math (http://washingtontimes.com/article/20080506/NATION/525934081/1001)

I guess, when you can't win by the rules, you gotta change the rules. :rolleyes

.. one other shenanigan Clinton has been playing the last few days is the proposal for a gas tax 'holiday', despite the money would likely go directly to oil companies rather than save drivers money. This is estimated to cost $126 million in lost highway money and more than 4,300 highway-related jobs (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/transportation/361912_gastax06.html) in Washington state alone.

.. and now she is going to attempt to break up OPEC (http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Clinton_OPEC_can_no_longer_be_a_cartel.html). Don't ask me how. She also talked about "obliterating" Iran in the event of an attack at Israel.

The woman is off the rockers and jumped the shark politically. Question is how voters in Indiana and North Carolina will respond, or if they even care. We will find out tonight..

[Jedieb]

I'm afraid we're probably going to get a split today; Obama NC, Hillary IN. The worst case scenario for Obama would be a decent Indiana win for Hillary and a close NC contest. I don't see how she can possibly pull out NC, but if she closes the gap to less than 5 points then she'll be dragging this out till the convention. This is Obama's 3rd chance to knock her out in the eyes of Superdelegates. If he sweeps today, (evan a narrow Indiana win would do the job) then you'll start to see one Superdelegate after another start to declare themselves. It could be over by the end of the month and the last primary.

I'm not surprised by Yog's "nuclear" stories. This woman is going to fight and she'll fight harder than any candidate Obama will face, even McCain.

[Turbogeek]

Pfffft, there's not going to be a nuclear option. Obama is clearly going to rout Clinton in NC tonight - it's already looking highly onimous at 63%-37% at just 18% counted. That's massive. And there's been a few more Super delegates declare their hand

IN its 54-46 to Clinton with 56% counted but it's closing. She has to win by 10% to cause doubt about Obama. Anything less... bye bye bat face.

[Jedieb]

I wouldn't be that harsh, they need bat face on that ticket.

65% have been reported in Indiana and he's starting to close, which would explain why it hasn't been called. I haven't seen a breakdown of which districts have been counted, but I'm guessing that the metropolitan areas have yet to be fully tallied and that would give Obama a chance to close the gap. It looks like Obama got the BIG win he needed in NC. He may end up with a 20+ win which is going to translate into a big delegate split.

67% now and it's still a 6 point gap. I think he might be able to make it close enough that it's going to be another big delegate loss for HC. Hillary certainly didn't win over any Superdelegates tonight. Without Indiana Obama missed another knockout opportunity but she didn't win anything big tonight. She'll take WV next week and the remaining primaries will be a push. It's pretty much over now except for the noise.

[Jedieb]

It looks like a couple of the remaining Indiana counties are Obama strongholds so he's definitely going to make this close. HC continues to do well with seniors and rural areas, but it looks like Obama made this very close, so close that tonight may well finally being another nail in her coffin. I just hope it's enough to make a WV HC win next week irrelevant.

[Jedieb]

71% and he's closed it to 4 points and around 40,000 votes. I'm watching his NC speech right now. He's giving a good speech and he's ignoring HC and going right after McCain and linking him with Bush as much as possible.

[Turbogeek]

I wouldn't be that harsh, they need bat face on that ticket.


No they don't. Most of the democrats voting Clinton wont vote Republican and the Independants + all those millions of new Dems they have been signing up will vote lie mad for Obama in the GE. The only people who want Batface on the ticket are Republicans.... so that they have a much better chance.


!!!!!!!!!!!!

Even as I type IN got 6K votes closer to be under 38000 lead. Holy her lead dropped 15K in like 6% counted...?

[Jedieb]

The lead keeps going from the upper 30's to low 40's. It's not going to be called until midnight because they're waiting on one last county that's an Obama stronghold. He made it close enough in Indiana that he denied her a prime time speech while being able to give a general election type of speech tonight.

As for needing HC, yes he does. The party is split. She's not just getting Indy and Republican votes, that's just wrong. (In fact tonight, Obama won the Indy vote in Indiana.) She's getting rural votes, white males, females, and seniors. When this race is over Obama will have won the popular vote but HC will still have pulled in more than 45% of the Dem vote. You just can't toss that out. The race is still on because it's close. He's going to need her in November.

[Jedieb]

CNN has a Clinton supporter on and he's sounding sad, desperate, and stubborn. It's OVER, but the guy is fighting a hopeless fight. All he has are recent gallop polls in the face losing the popular votes and the pledged delegates. It's kind of sad.

[Jedieb]

HC has just started her speech. Her opening statements are really out of touch with what's happened tonight. She says she's headed to the White House. She might be, but it's not going to be at the top of the ticket. I would expect a few more of Superdelegates to declare themselves after tonight. Even if Obama doesn't pull out Indiana. He stole a lot of her thunder by making it close tonight.

Man, she's begging for money right now. Let it go HC, let it go.

[Jedi Master Carr]

HC has just started her speech. Her opening statements are really out of touch with what's happened tonight. She says she's headed to the White House. She might be, but it's not going to be at the top of the ticket. I would expect a few more of Superdelegates to declare themselves after tonight. Even if Obama doesn't pull out Indiana. He stole a lot of her thunder by making it close tonight.

Man, she's begging for money right now. Let it go HC, let it go.

LOL that was like the third thing out of her mouth. That just reeked of desperation. You should have watched Bill during her speech, he showed no emotion and a few CNN analysts mentioned they saw Chelsie crying. I think she will win Indiana by anywhere from 1.5-3% that isn't a big victory and this is about over. I don't think she will give up until after Oregon and Kentucky since they are pretty much the last important states left.

[Jedieb]

Wow, Lake County is starting to come in and Obama is winning big there. HC's lead has been cut in half to 20,000. If he keeps winning at the clip the early votes had he'll erase her lead. She loses IN and she's finally DONE.

The 75% clip isn't likely to hold, but he's still going to cut that lead down significantly. Oh man, I need to get to sleep... :cry

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow, Lake County is starting to come in and Obama is winning big there. HC's lead has been cut in half to 20,000. If he keeps winning at the clip the early votes had he'll erase her lead. She loses IN and she's finally DONE.

The 75% clip isn't likely to hold, but he's still going to cut that lead down significantly. Oh man, I need to get to sleep... :cry

LOL I know me too but I can't until I know.

[Cat X]

Wow, Lake County is starting to come in and Obama is winning big there. HC's lead has been cut in half to 20,000. If he keeps winning at the clip the early votes had he'll erase her lead. She loses IN and she's finally DONE.

The 75% clip isn't likely to hold, but he's still going to cut that lead down significantly. Oh man, I need to get to sleep... :cry

She's done NOW. She's cancelled all appearences for tomorrow, her campaign is broke and she's barely going to win IN, a place until tonight looked to be at least a 5 point win.

The canceled all appearances thing should be the real tip what's going on. She knows it. The media are calling it now and calling Obama the nominee.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow, Lake County is starting to come in and Obama is winning big there. HC's lead has been cut in half to 20,000. If he keeps winning at the clip the early votes had he'll erase her lead. She loses IN and she's finally DONE.

The 75% clip isn't likely to hold, but he's still going to cut that lead down significantly. Oh man, I need to get to sleep... :cry

She's done NOW. She's cancelled all appearences for tomorrow, her campaign is broke and she's barely going to win IN, a place until tonight looked to be at least a 5 point win.

The canceled all appearances thing should be the real tip what's going on. She knows it. The media are calling it now and calling Obama the nominee.

Well it looks that way, really she has only one way to win now and that is the scorched earth way which would kill her in November if she tried it. If she stole the thing from Obama, the African Americans in this country would protest. I could see Sharpton and Jessie protesting in Denver now. She would lose in a landslide as Nader would get 10% of the vote.

[Cat X]

She's done NOW. She's cancelled all appearences for tomorrow, her campaign is broke and she's barely going to win IN, a place until tonight looked to be at least a 5 point win.

The canceled all appearances thing should be the real tip what's going on. She knows it. The media are calling it now and calling Obama the nominee.

Well it looks that way, really she has only one way to win now and that is the scorched earth way which would kill her in November if she tried it. If she stole the thing from Obama, the African Americans in this country would protest. I could see Sharpton and Jessie protesting in Denver now. She would lose in a landslide as Nader would get 10% of the vote.[/quote]



She cant even win via scorched earth. She can not win at all, full stop. Tonight saw off any possibility that even with FL and MI get seated at the worst for Clinton, Obama will win. He wins now by all metrics, by any senario.

She needed the reverse of the results tonight to have any chance of the nuke option possibly working. She will most likely withdraw about May 20 once the formality of Obama getting a insurmountable lead in pledged delegates occurs.

[Yog]

Clinton is projected winner in Indiana 51% to 49% CNN reports. That should not be the headline though. It should be "disaster day for Clinton", because that is what it was. This result was even better than I hoped.

Now Clinton will have one hell of a time trying to explain how she is still a justified candidate. Obama will have clinched the popular vote and pledged delegate count in one of the remaining contests, and he will not even need that big percentage of the super delegates to hit 2025. Unless DNC is more corrupt than a communist dictatorship, there is no way she will be able to wiggle her way out of this one. Of course, she will probably try the nuclear option, but she will look stupid doing so. :)

[Yog]

Clinton can thank Limbaugh she did not lose in Indiana:


Limbaugh has been urging right-wingers to vote against Obama

* There really has never been any question that Senator Clinton would win Indiana, where she has the support of Senator Evan Bayh’s political operation and the demographics heavily favor her. But we saw today that perhaps her strongest asset was that Republicans believe she’ll be an easier opponent to beat in November.

* Right-wing radio host Rush Limbaugh has been urging his listeners to cross over and vote in the Democratic primary in Indiana to help Clinton’s chances at becoming the nominee.

* Reports from Indiana polling places confirmed that record numbers of Republicans were taking Democratic ballots to vote against Obama. And Limbaugh himself bragged about the success of his effort on his radio show today.

Republicans are desperate to face Clinton, because they know Obama will be harder to beat

* Let’s be very clear: the Republicans want to face Senator Clinton in November, because they know that Senator Obama will be a stronger nominee for the Democrats, and will help Democratic candidates down the ballot. Republicans are so scared of Obama that they’re actually skipping their own primary to vote against him.

* That’s a stunning testament to the threat that Obama will pose to Republicans come fall.

* If I were the Clinton campaign, I don’t think I’d be celebrating too hard tonight. Winning a state on the strength of voters who want to see you defeated isn’t exactly the kind of win you want—or the message you want to send to superdelegates.

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/05/obama_team_talking_points_memo.html


I spoken out against this practice before. I think it is a mockery of the election process.


Wesley Clark, one of Clinton's strongest supporters called and asked her to step aside:
http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/breaking-wesley-clark-reportedly-called.html

[Turbogeek]

So Clark drew the short straw to tap her on the shoulder?

Also noted that Obama can realistically get the magic 2025 without gaining a single more super delegate. Of course he will get a lot more now, I would expect the floodgates to open now it is clear he will get the required numbers.

But also, think how historic this is. The USA now has a black candidate with a serious shot at th White House. Whatever happens, he has made history by just getting this far. And the way the black community are now gettign behind him and forming an incredible base to work from means that he really has that chance.

Amazing that the Republicans chose the actual best candidate they had on offer and the Dems picked just a great one full stop.

[Jedieb]

HC is still scheduled to appear in WV today, so I'm not sure where anyone is getting info that she's cancelled all of her events today. Even her daughter has a campaign stop today.

I'm glad to hear that Clark has asked her to drop out. I've been an admirer of his and even worked on his campaign back in 04. I'd be surprised if he wasn't a part of a Dem cabinet.

I'd said earlier that the popular vote argument that Clinton used after Penn. was dangerous. Last night wasn't a complete train wreck, but it came damn close. Losing Indiana would have done that. But the stomping she got in NC erased the gains she made in Penn. Now she's back to trailing Obama by hundreds of thousands of popular votes, no matter what Math you use.

Her arguments for continuing are getting thinner and thinner, but unfortunately, they're still there.
1) The Polls!! Look at the polls!
This is what desperate HC surrogates will be repeating ad nausem for the remaining weeks of the race. They'll grab onto any poll that shows Obama slipping versus McCain in any state they can find. If a poll shows that Hillary does better than Obama v. McCain they'll say Superdelegates should tatoo those figures on their butts and swear by them. The poll argument has several flaws. For Yoda's sake, Dukakis once lead Bush by 16 points, nuff said. But more importantly, why the hell are people bothering to vote if the nomination just gets handed out based on poll numbers?

2) We won Indiana! We've won "big" states!
So has Obama. Yet all of your big state victories have failed to give you an electoral or popular vote edge. Also, a big state PRIMARY victory does not translate into a general election victory, not by any means.

3) The race isn't over, the process is not finished.

I'll give you the second, but not the first. It is OVER, no matter what Math you use. You're not going to overcome that pledged delegate gap without serious backdoor Superdelegate wheeling and deeling. You're not going to get those Superdelegates without burning the party down.

4) West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico

The first two look like solid wins for Clinton and she's probably going to pull out PR. With Obama winning the other 3 (Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota) HC could gain between 20-30 delgates by the end of the race on June 3rd. So what? That's not enough, not nearly enough to overcome Obama's delegate lead. They're also aren't enough popular votes left for her to cut into his lead.

5) Florida and Michigan, FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN!

People need to shut up about these two states. We've already hashed this out already. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan. So what if a few ads got out in Florida, no candidate mounted a full out campaign in the state. And any Clinton surrogate that says that Obama's responsible for disenfranchising those states should be punched in the face. The states themselves blew it you idiots. All your doing is giving McCain a great sound bite when he campaigns in those two states in November. Dean and the rules committee should just split the damn delegates between the two candidates, seat them at the convention, and let that be the end of it. Give HC a 60/40 split if you want, it STILL won't be enough.


I read that HC just poured another 6 million of her own cash into her campaign. With Kentucky and West Virginia she'll also get some positive press to keep slugging along. I'd love to see her be magnanimous and call it quits, but I'd be stunned if she did such a thing.

[Yog]

Amen, Jedieb. Amen.


.. anyway, here is Clinton's take on it:

"Well, tonight we've come from behind, we've broken the tie, and, thanks to you, it's full speed onto the White House."
I laughed a good minute over that one :lol

The headline at drudgereport is pretty good:

"CONGRESSIONAL SOURCE: Hillary having trouble finding superdelegates who will meet with her... 'No one wants to see her today'... Developing..."

.. and finally, NBC's summary was pretty much spot on:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lklfIPBK4Zg

[Jedieb]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/135861

That's an article by Howard Fineman highlighting an effort by the Obama campaign to end this after the Oregon primary. I'm really curious to see how the votes in WV and Kentucky turn out. I wonder if many Clinton supporters will stay home because they see the reality of the Math.

[Jedieb]

Here's a depressing thought. Obama supporters are going to be having a good news fest right up until next Tuesday. That will unfortunately end next Tues. Then we'll get 2 weeks of Hillary spinning 2 probable wins in West Virginia and Kentucky. Again, Superdelegates can end this. HC's lead in committed Super's is down to only 10. I think that lead could easily evaporate before next Tuesday. I just wonder how many SD's will come out this week.

[Atreyu]

Wesley Clark, one of Clinton's strongest supporters called and asked her to step aside:
http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/breaking-wesley-clark-reportedly-called.html
I just checked out that link - they've updated it with a denial from Clark's people that he's made such a call.

Anyway, it's over for Hillary. O.V.E.R.

[Cat X]

Here's a depressing thought. Obama supporters are going to be having a good news fest right up until next Tuesday. That will unfortunately end next Tues. Then we'll get 2 weeks of Hillary spinning 2 probable wins in West Virginia and Kentucky. Again, Superdelegates can end this. HC's lead in committed Super's is down to only 10. I think that lead could easily evaporate before next Tuesday. I just wonder how many SD's will come out this week.

Everyone knows WV and KN is a given for Clinton. HOWEVER, Oregon is the same day as KN and there is no doubt that OR will 100% put Obama over the top with pledged delegates.

Look, let her have her consolation wins. It'll also look better in that KN and WV will not vote Obama even if he is the only candidate left so why not have it look like a race instead? Less embarrassment. And she'll go May 20 when Oregon delivers for Obama.

But frankly the supers probably will feel they can move now. So there will be defections and endorsments a plenty this week for sure. I'm guessing up to +30 for Obama.

Edit : Hey WTF, when did Hillary's Super's lead drop to 11? Wasn't it still 18 yesterday? Who endorsed?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here's a depressing thought. Obama supporters are going to be having a good news fest right up until next Tuesday. That will unfortunately end next Tues. Then we'll get 2 weeks of Hillary spinning 2 probable wins in West Virginia and Kentucky. Again, Superdelegates can end this. HC's lead in committed Super's is down to only 10. I think that lead could easily evaporate before next Tuesday. I just wonder how many SD's will come out this week.


Well he has Oregon which he should win by a lot, that has more delegates than Kentucky.

[Jedieb]

An interesting idea being floated around now is that she's waiting for a big WV win next week and that she'll bow out right after that on a high note. I think that scenario will start to gain alot of traction, especially if her upcoming campaign events and commercials lose any negative attacks against Obama and focus mainly on her and any issues she wants to raise. With Oregon on the 20th, it would make next week a better story to go out on, but we'll see.

I'm also curious to see what happens at the end of the month with Florida and Michigan. They got themselves into this mess, but it would foolish for Dean and the Rules committee to not go ahead and seat them now. Just split the damn delegates and be done with it. Negotiate the ratio with the two camps, let Clinton have a majority in each of them, it won't make a difference.