Star Wars vs Titanic

[Darth Turbogeek]

I tell ya all the bloody boat will be sunk this time!

(Come on, you were all thinking it... weren't you? :D )

[Atreyu]

At last we will have revenge! :D




... but can it sink Avatar? :ohno

[Droo]

I have every confidence that The Force Awakens is going to smash everything!

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Star Wars will sink the ship!

...but my heart will go on!

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

Oh yah, this is gonna be the iceberg that sinks the ship, no doubt.

It's also gonna Colonel Quarritch the hell out of Pandora.

[Figrin D'an]

I've felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of box office trolls cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

[Charley]

I suddenly miss Jon Bowen's pie in the sky optimism and polemics.

[Pierce Tondry]

I've felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of box office trolls cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

Figrin! Holy hell man, missed seeing you around. Hope all goes well with you!

[Darth Turbogeek]

99% on the Tomato-meter???? Holy crap, I was nto expecting that!

Oh and before it's even opened, it has the all time opening record in Australia just on pre-sales alone.

The bloody boat is sunk I tell ya!

[Yog]

I think this will break all records there are :D

[Darth Turbogeek]

50 million on Thursday previews alone estimate. THis might literally make as much in three days as Return of the Jedi made in it's entire first run!

[Jedieb]

Looks like TFA is headed for a 200M+ weekend. JUrassic World's record is reachable. Mojo is predicting a $231M opening.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

That's really cool - and totally deserved

[Darth Turbogeek]

Now serious talk of 100 milion in a DAY.

This is insane, no one was even guessing close to the first day numbers that are now coming out. 231 million weekend? That's also looking way too low. TFA was the movie we all wanted 16 years ago, it's also doing the Box Office we wanted TPM to do as well.

[Darth Turbogeek]

123 Million Friday est. 244mil weekend projection

[Crusader]

Somebody should make the band play. I think that boat is sinking!

[Lilaena De'Ville]

http://i.imgur.com/QrMUSpc.jpg

[CMJ]

Now serious talk of 100 milion in a DAY.

This is insane, no one was even guessing close to the first day numbers that are now coming out. 231 million weekend? That's also looking way too low. TFA was the movie we all wanted 16 years ago, it's also doing the Box Office we wanted TPM to do as well.


I don't know man...arguing box office numbers from 16+ years ago is like apples and oranges. I know that TPM grossed about 30-40M in its re-release, but even so it did over 700M if you adjust (TFA will clear that, but I don't expect it to go much past 800M, so the amount it's gonna clear it by is impressive, but not ridiculously so). That is a huge number.


Titanic's number adjusted for inflation is also mindboggling.

[Zereth Lancer]

delete plox.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

delete plox.
No

[Serena Laran]

238 mil weekend estimate

[Jedieb]

Now serious talk of 100 milion in a DAY.

This is insane, no one was even guessing close to the first day numbers that are now coming out. 231 million weekend? That's also looking way too low. TFA was the movie we all wanted 16 years ago, it's also doing the Box Office we wanted TPM to do as well.


I don't know man...arguing box office numbers from 16+ years ago is like apples and oranges. I know that TPM grossed about 30-40M in its re-release, but even so it did over 700M if you adjust (TFA will clear that, but I don't expect it to go much past 800M, so the amount it's gonna clear it by is impressive, but not ridiculously so). That is a huge number.


Titanic's number adjusted for inflation is also mindboggling.

Court brings up a good point. We forget just how impressive TPM's BO run was. Same with Titanic. But I do think TFA has a chance to match and maybe even outdo TPM's infaltion adjusted BO. It's early, and we need to see how TFA holds up over the next couple of weeks. I think Avatar's #1 spot is withing reach. Where TFA is going to CRUSH TPM is in critical and fan reaction. It's already won the critical war and I think it's a safe bet to say it's won the fan reaction as well.

Does anyone really think we'll be hearing this 16 years from now? "Boy, The Force Awakens really sucked. That BB-8 was one of the most annoying characters in the history of film!" As the prequels went on I always thought they weren't going to age well. History's proven me right. How many TFA reviews could be summed up by "TFA makes up for the gawd awful prequels!" It's a recurring theme in both critical and fan reactions.

Mojo has a $238M estimate for the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see the official numbers come down a bit. Next week has a bunch of new releases. None of them are likely to bring TFA down from the #1 spot, but they could cut into its second week numbers and make the drop steeper than if studios had chickened out and decided not to release anything in TFA's second week. But you can't pass up XMas, too many families out to the movies.

[Darth Turbogeek]

247 million actual. 528ish and growing WW. Friday down a touch, Saturday about the same, Sunday 11m more than estimates. That Sunday hold is insane for such a huge opener.

Every single record availible gone apart from largest Saturday - and it missed that by a blink probably due to lower theatre numbers.

[Jedieb]

The final numbers are ridiculously good. Wow.. Like you said, the Sunday hold was very impressive. I don't know how many times I'll end up going, but I think I'll get #4 in this Saturday. My youngest daughter really liked it and she's already told me she'll go with me. My too cool for school guitar playing 17 year old son saw it with his GF and friends and he liked it. Wow, it's just so nice to be in the middle of a SW opening and not have to constantly defend the movie from all sides.

[Darth Turbogeek]

The fact that TFA did all of this in December of all times is what's most impressive. December just doesnt get the kind of outragoues openings May / June do.... even with the fact TFA was always going to be big, I think a lot of pre-opening estimates were highly doubtful even a Star Wars movie could open like Jurrasic World in December with good reason - there was no prior example to work with. Big movies in December have been show to have decent opening but huge multipliers (Esp Avatar and Titanic)

Now we have an opening beyond all reasoning (Every number is just insane by any metric) and a real chance of a 3.5 to 4 multiplier esp if TFA starts to perform like a December hit and gets some serious legs. Wont be a Titanic style run but I think going like Avatar might well be on.

Oh and it looks like the all time Monday record also fell by some considerable margin. Very likely 290 million right now - so 500 million in 10 days is possible?

[CMJ]

We'll see how it plays for the next few days, but I am definitely thinking I way low balled at 800M. This may go north of 900M at this rate.

[Darth Turbogeek]

40.1 M Monday.........! (previous record, Spider Man 2, 27 million)

[Jedieb]

Very impressive Monday. This weekend is going to be interesting. It could end up being a PERFECT XMas movie. Families love going to the movies on XMas. Throw in it falling on a Friday and it could be a perfect storm. Avatar had XMas fall on a Friday also and it did great. My youngest daughter wants to see it again, but we're going this Saturday.

[Morgan Evanar]

I already saw it again. I will probably see it another time or two. Is it worth seeing in 3D?

[Crusader]

Keep in mind that the movie was actually shot on film like the old movies so all the 3D you see is mostly Push Up 3D and not real one. Especially in the pirat lair some of the camera's movement looks weird in 3D.

What really made a huge difference to me was standard THX vs Atmos sound. All the lightsabre moments and space battles sound amazing.

[Dasquian Belargic]

I didn't notice anything amazing about the 3D.

[Darth Turbogeek]

37.1 M Tuesday, 140-180 MIll this weekend almost certain. I guess it;s now becoming clear final gross is anyone's guess

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I already saw it again. I will probably see it another time or two. Is it worth seeing in 3D?
3D was good but not amazing. Definitely not bad!

[Darth Turbogeek]

38 Mill Wed. Only the largest non opening Wed ever by oh about 18 million. TPM also open on a Wed and it's adjusted for inflation gross was 46 million

[Jedieb]

The 3D showing was nothing special IMO. I wanted to see it twice on opening day so my second showing was a late 3D show. The theater was actually half full so it wasn't as raucous as the 7pm show. What I'd love to see is an IMAX show. The nearest IMAX theater to me is almost 3 hours away.

I've been tracking TFA's gross with a couple of spreadsheets just like the good ol' days. It's run so far has been spectacular. I've been posting over at TFN in their BO discussion and they're really pouring over the numbers there. Our old friend Bowen is over there as well. Amazingly enough, TFA has been tracking very close to what Avatar did over its XMas release. The days of the week and dates match up exactly so it's a good comparison. But what's amazing is that TFA is seeing similar holds and drops, but it's starting out much HIGHER than Avatar ever did. On some days it has practically the same drops or holds despite seeing grosses that are TWICE as high!

Right now there's an outside shot it could pass $500M this Saturday! If it doesn't make it Saturday, it surely will this Sunday.

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

Charley and I are going to see it for a third run on Saturday. We lucked out that there's an IMAX theatre 20 minutes away, so we're going to do that.

[Ilias Nytrau]

Seeing it for a second time on Saturday. Went alone on opening weekend - this time going to take the owlet with me. :D

[Darth Turbogeek]

Just reading that TFN thread (ugh, Bowen is just like he was 16 years ago) and 28 million Christmas Eve?!?!? Good grief, so far beyond anything for this time of year and a actual possibly of a 60million Christmas day not being laughed at?!?? 140-175 million second weekend?????

I'll now believe that not just the Boat being sunk within a week from now, Avatar is a real possibility by new year with the insanity of the numbers. If you had told me Avatar would have been knocked off in three weeks, I'd have said you were insane, no movie could do that. Yet...... here we are, we have the perfect storm movie and it's doing the kind of box office that no one saw coming. And with no real competition for another month. I'd say 1Billion was just stupid talk but I think I'll be rethinking that in two weeks time if this kind of insanity keeps going.

It cant keep going like this, surely. It's not going to track Avatar dropoffs for much longer......?

Edit : On the other hand, there's no way TFA beats Avatar's WW numbers. Might get close the the Titanic number tho

[Jedieb]

Just reading that TFN thread (ugh, Bowen is just like he was 16 years ago) and 28 million Christmas Eve?!?!? Good grief, so far beyond anything for this time of year and a actual possibly of a 60million Christmas day not being laughed at?!?? 140-175 million second weekend?????

I'll now believe that not just the Boat being sunk within a week from now, Avatar is a real possibility by new year with the insanity of the numbers. If you had told me Avatar would have been knocked off in three weeks, I'd have said you were insane, no movie could do that. Yet...... here we are, we have the perfect storm movie and it's doing the kind of box office that no one saw coming. And with no real competition for another month. I'd say 1Billion was just stupid talk but I think I'll be rethinking that in two weeks time if this kind of insanity keeps going.

It cant keep going like this, surely. It's not going to track Avatar dropoffs for much longer......?

Edit : On the other hand, there's no way TFA beats Avatar's WW numbers. Might get close the the Titanic number tho

I've been over there as well. Yes, some things never change. :mischief

I actually think the WW record is in play. TFA will break Avatar's domestic record. It's also going to outperform Avatar in some big international markets. China may end up being a huge surprise. SW has never done that well over there, but that market is exploding. The record that Avatar set in China in 2009 gets broken on a routine basis now. The top 6 films from 2015 all beat Avatar's $209M. With a solid 2016 Top 5 performance TFA could take in $250M+ in China. If TFA does catch it, it'll be close.

Man, how I envy you IMAX people. The closest one to me is 3 hours away! My sister saw it in IMAX and said it was unbelievable. :duel

On a sad/happy note, my parents (80 and 75) went to see TFA on Christmas Day. You know you're hitting everybody when you get Cuban senior citizens to your movie. Unfortunately, my mother took a fall getting to her seat and had to leave the theater in an ambulance. She got some stitches at the hospital, but she 's back home. There's not much I can do from 1,200 miles away. I told her to just rest up and that'd I'd send her the Blu-ray as soon as it comes out. She told me not to worry, the theater gave them free passes and she'll be seeing it soon. :cool:

[Darth Turbogeek]

50 million est Christmas Day, 58 mill tracking Sat, now officailly past TPH AND ANH. Now enters Dom top 10 at 6, will be 5 after Sunday. After only 10(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) days.

I still just cant believe it'll beat Avatar so easily.

Edit : Fun one ot look for - TFA needs 909 million to make the Adjusted for inflation top 10 list, which would make it the sole 21st century movie to do it. Needs 774 million to beat TPM.

[Jedieb]

Ladies and gentlemen, this movie is kicking some serious arse!!!! Actuals are in for the weekend and they came in a bit lower than estimates with a $149M weekend. (Still spectacular!) A few hours ago estimates started coming in for today. We could be looking at an incredible $33M for this Monday!! Here's some perspective:

1. TFA $40.1M
2. TFA $33M
3. Spiderman 2 $27.6M

Those are the biggest Mondays of all time. How can a movie have 2 spots on such a list?! I've got a model that actually has TFA hitting $1B domestically on Feb 6! It's going to happen people!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jedieb]

Final Monday numbers put it at $31M. Still damn impressive hold.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

That's pretty incredible!

[Darth Turbogeek]

Hey look at that - TFA is at 600,931,000, it's now beaten the Boat's first run in just 12 days(!!!!), and a given TFA will also blow away Avatar within the week. 16-17 days to topple Avatar...... GG, that's insane.

Also given it'll be somewhere north of 800m in a weeks time, Disney would do everything in it's power to get TFA past 1 billion. Wooooow

[Darth Turbogeek]

LIne ball if TFA beat Jurrassic World on 31st Dec, The Boat is sunk Jan 1.

14.2 Days for TFA to beat the Boat, I just never thought that would have been possible. I was hoping for a Avatar type run and maybe 700 million when I started this thread.

[Morgan Evanar]

Hey look at that - TFA is at 600,931,000, it's now beaten the Boat's first run in just 12 days(!!!!), and a given TFA will also blow away Avatar within the week. 16-17 days to topple Avatar...... GG, that's insane.

Also given it'll be somewhere north of 800m in a weeks time, Disney would do everything in it's power to get TFA past 1 billion. Wooooow

Is that inflation corrected?

[Jedieb]

TFA actually has a shot at besting Titanic's inflation adjusted first run. There are alot of different ways to adjusted for inflation. Basically, Titanic's run was somewhere between $900M-$1.1B. In the end, what you really have is a run that's very comparable to Titanic's. That's why $1B is in play. TFA's run will be much shorter, but it opened ridiculously high, and then had holds that no other OW record setter has ever had. These holds are ridiculous. Here's a chart I made showing just how well TFA is holding compared to the last 10 films that set the OW record.
http://i1186.photobucket.com/albums/z364/Eltemmorejon/TFA%20Week%202%20Decline%20Updated.png (http://s1186.photobucket.com/user/Eltemmorejon/media/TFA%20Week%202%20Decline%20Updated.png.html)
Look at that Week 2 hold, it's insane. Now, TFA does have the benefit of a December release, but look at Catching Fire. It had a holiday release as well. It suffered the traditional 60% drop. I don't care when you're released, when you set the OW record, you're NOT supposed to have a 32% hold. That's insane!

[Darth Turbogeek]

Box Office Mojo redid their Adjusted list to be based on est ticket sales x est average ticket price

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm?adjust_yr=1&p=.htm

Not perfect but waaaay better than they did before. Adjusted for inflation just doesnt work. TFA needs 109 million tickets to break into the top 10.

[Morgan Evanar]

There may be more premium ticket sales for this movie, too. I know there was for Avatar.

[Darth Turbogeek]

It's likely TFA when it passes Avatar will have sold more tickets as the 3D isnt basically required viewing.

But unadjusted......

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

:D Boat's gone

Day 16 est 35 million, 721 est.... Avatar day 16 actual 25, 334

Titanic at day 16..... 12, 148. Avatar took 47 days to sink Titanic, it's going to be shot down in 18. 900 million is locked in.

[Darth Turbogeek]

After 20 days of release, TFA blows Avatar away and becomes the No 1 US box office movie, also will defeat TPM adjusted Friday.

:D Also first time a sequel has claimed No 1.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

$33 million opening day in China. Biggest Disney opening there of all time.

[Darth Turbogeek]

$33 million opening day in China. Biggest Disney opening there of all time.

Uhhh..... WOW! That's far bigger than anyone was expecting

[Padd]

Just found this thread. It's like reliving the past.

[Crusader]

2,066 millions... still no Titanic but a man can dream.