Star Wars - Revenge of the Sith. Episode III Box Office Thread

[Master Yoghurt]

I cant believe there is no thread up for this yet. Lets track, report and discuss the daily box office haul in this thread.

Episode III is opening in aproximately 3700 theaters and is reported to be put out on an amazing 9500 prints. The marketing is stronger than ever before, and the reviews are glowing. This could be the movie the fans have been waiting for.

Could it beat the Matrix Reloaded opening day record of 42.7M? With all the sold out midnight screenings, counting for inflation and the increased print count, it just might. And what about the 3 day weekend? I dont think it will beat Spiderman, but it should still do very strong overall.

Then there is the question what kind of legs this will have. Reviews and early reports indicate its considerable better than the other two prequels. Its also darker and has a PG13 rating, which may make a slight dent, but how that will affect the overall numbers remain to be seen. Possibly, it will be better received than the other prequels, resulting in a higher rewatch count. But it may turn the other way around too, as the first installment in a trilogy always seem to have a better rewatch count the the first. Nowadays, blockbusters tends to have high opening numbers and faster drops than the days of TPM. Overall though, I think it will do better than AOTC.

One thing that speaks heavily in favor of ROTS, is the lack of competition. The market is screaming in agony for a big blockbuster. Surveys shows that ROTS is the most highly anticipated movie this year, beating all other althernatives with a 70% score.

So what do you think? Post your thoughts :)

[Master Yoghurt]

Here is my preliminary prediction.. (still subject to change)

Opening day: $42.7M
3 day: $94.4M
4 day: $137.1M
Total domestic: 415.7
International: ?
Worldwide: ?

[JMK]

I think this movie is an interesting mix of factors. How many people have been turned off by the relative disappointments of TPM and AotC? Will those people turn out in the same numbers, or have they given up on Star Wars?

There's also a battle between glowing reviews vs the PG-13 rating. Will they negate each other or will one over the other win out? Personally I think the reviews and word of mouth will win out over the PG-13 rating. I don't think PG-13 means that a kid under 13 can't see the movie without a parent, it's just a stronger warning to parents.

There is no competition for the first month of release, so RotS had better generate some seriously great word of mouth and make a boatloads of money then. I think once Batman comes out it's going to be all over for RotS.

Predictions:
Opening Day: 40.4M
3 day: 92.2M
4 day: 128.5M
Domestic: 403M
Worldwide: 850M

[jjwr]

Grosses will definetly come in higher than EP2, we may not see as much up front but the following weeks should be seeing a smaller decine.

A combination of repeat viewings and then people who were turned off by Ep1 & Ep2 showing up after hearing the reviews and wanting to get in on the action.

I'm doubting the PG-13 rating will hurt it much, I can't see most theatres pushing kids away from seeing this because they are 12 and no parent in sight.

No Spiderman to fight with and a weak slate should give this movie a massive month and then coast through the summer to rack up a 400+ final tally.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by JMK
I think this movie is an interesting mix of factors. How many people have been turned off by the relative disappointments of TPM and AotC? Will those people turn out in the same numbers, or have they given up on Star Wars?

There's also a battle between glowing reviews vs the PG-13 rating. Will they negate each other or will one over the other win out? Personally I think the reviews and word of mouth will win out over the PG-13 rating. I don't think PG-13 means that a kid under 13 can't see the movie without a parent, it's just a stronger warning to parents.

There is no competition for the first month of release, so RotS had better generate some seriously great word of mouth and make a boatloads of money then. I think once Batman comes out it's going to be all over for RotS.

Predictions:
Opening Day: 40.4M
3 day: 92.2M
4 day: 128.5M
Domestic: 403M
Worldwide: 850M


Well I think the good reviews will help offset that. The turned off fans I think will come back because of them. And Yoghurt is right the box office is dying for this film, I think it might be bigger that I would have though.

[Master Yoghurt]

The big factor is going to be the repeat viewings. What might help ROTS this time, the summer market is currently quite different to what it was just one year ago. Right now, you will see crap like House of Wax "only" have a drop of 45% from first weekend. Last year, I guarantee it would have been absolutely slaughtered with a minimum 60% drop. The market is less saturated with big releases, and the audience seems more forgiving.

I am nearly 100% confident that ROTS will have a better opening weekend than AOTC. The increased theater count and prints, bigger and better marketing (clone wars cartoon and what not), and the glowing reviews will pretty much ensure that its going to be sizzling hot opening. Also, this time around, there is no Matrix or Spiderman. With a good word of mouth and low competition, ROTS should have better legs than AOTC.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Memorial Day weekend looks stacked although I think The Longest Yard looks horrible, I am not sure about Madagascar. I don't think it looks as funny as either Shrek movies.

[Master Yoghurt]

Personally, those movies are so low on my awareness radar, I have to construct a new display so I can see the readout :)

[CMJ]

My final total prediction is 370M. As I said in the other BO thread we always overestimate the boxoffice of these things. If it gets a higher total than that, it's all gravy as far as I'm concerned.

[Jedieb]

Here's the big question for me, 'Will ROTS rebound from AOTC's B.O. performance and reach the B.O. levels of ESB, ROTJ, and TPM? The first 3 sequels all had a strikingly similiar B.O. run. Adjust the numbers for inflation and they're all over the $400M mark. AOTC was the first sequel to come up short of that mark, far short. If ROTS performs in a similiar manner to those first sequels then we could see a gross of over $450M. As large as that may seem, it's inflation that's doing the heavy lifting. TPM's $430M would equal an eye popping $490M today! I think we're going to be somewhere between TPM and AOTC inflation adjusted numbers, $330M-$490.

Total Run
$416.5M

[Jedi Master Carr]

I have been think about 360 for the whole run, that was last month and I made that prediction on the BOM board. Now that was before I started reading those fandango reports, still I won't change my guess yet.

[Cat Terrist]

In australia at least, the first day total will be incredible. In the complex I was in, they originally had three sessions at 12:01 am. They added 4 more sessions in two days last week and sold out every one.

The word of mouth is also excellent. Big opening, probably not so hot run.

[Master Yoghurt]

Even though the midnight screening here in Oslo was sold out as expected (those tickets got snatched in an hour the 1st of may) I was shocked to see the theater was only 75% full on the 9 am screening. Thats a major bummer for the second screening overall on the worlds largest THX theater. Admittedly, its early in the morning, and yes, its a known fact the Norwegians fans in particular were very disappointed with the two previous prequels, but still, thats a worrying sign. Too many people were let down to give this a chance, no matter how brilliant I and everyone else who got up in the morning to see this thought it was.

Is it time to put the panic signs out yet? Well, no. I have a feeling judging by Marcus report that this was something out of ordinary that just should not have happened. First we will have to get some reports from thursday afternoon showings from you americans, then we will see if its time to worry.

Also, the word of mouth for this movie will incredible, so it might have very good legs. At least I can hope.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well at midnight here, the theater I was at had it on Ten screens and it sold out for all ten. Not sure about this morning here, although I was watching CNN and they showed fans lining up for the morning shows and there seemed to be a lot of them at least in the big cities.

[JediBoricua]

My theather had 6 screen originally. They added six mores. 12 sold out screens and still haven't heard of anyone who did not like it.

There were 18,000 pre-sale tickets through the Internet alone (we are a country of 4 million).

It's gonna shatter every record here.

[Quadinaros]

Now that I've seen it, I guess I can throw a couple cents in. I don't think the PG13 rating will hurt it, but the reasons it received the rating might. ROTS is very brooding and dark, and it gets darker and darker as it goes. I think repeat viewing will probably be stymied by the dark tone. It's not exactly fun fun fun!! Don't get me wrong. I loved it!

I'll predict $303 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow might be looking at an opening day record

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1823&p=.htm

16.5 for the midnight shows now that is incredible, it should do 40 at least for Thursday.

[imported_Bandage]

And I just got back from viewing it myself. Probably the best of the sequels. Yes, very brooding and very dark. And I have little else to add, for I am no number cruncher, save for the fact that like $900million in productivity was lost in I believe was the U.S. for businesses all around.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Originally posted by Cat Terrist
In australia at least, the first day total will be incredible. In the complex I was in, they originally had three sessions at 12:01 am. They added 4 more sessions in two days last week and sold out every one.

The word of mouth is also excellent. Big opening, probably not so hot run.

At the theatre I saw it at last night, they were still adding shows that day. When I bought the tickets, they only had the 12:01 showing (one month prior). A few days ago I checked, and they had added showings at 12:10 and 12:30, all sold out as well as the 12:01. Yesterday I found out they had added 12:40 (sold out) and 12:50 showings, and they had plans to add a 1 am show if the 12:50 sold out. They added the 1 am showing, so... It really was incredible. The line nearly wrapped completely around the building.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Wow might be looking at an opening day record

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1823&p=.htm

16.5 for the midnight shows now that is incredible, it should do 40 at least for Thursday.

Just $40M? AOTC earned 6.2 million during its premiere midnight which led to a $30.1M weekday.

ROTK $8.0M -> $34.5M and Spider-Man $7.0M -> $39.4M.

So Shrek 2's single day record of $44.8M should be easily broken.

Maybe $50M is possible.

Or did everyone want to see it at midnight? We'll see. :)

[Cat Terrist]

16 million for midnight screeners alone?!?!

Bloody hell.

[Shawn]

I can't remember the last movie I saw in theaters twice. Quite frankly, it's just too damned expensive these days, even for a great film. I do think I'll be seeing ROTS again. It was unbelievably good.

[Master Yoghurt]

I was so impressed by my first viewing, that I decided to invite my cousin and his wife out to see ROTS on Colosseum on sunday (im buying the tickets). I believe lots of people who do not normally go for repeat viewings will have their minds changed when they see this movie.

[Dutchy]

Episode III record predictions. (http://www.the-numbers.com/interactive/newsStory.php?newsID=1259)

Boxoffice Comparison of all 6 Star Wars movies. (http://www.the-numbers.com/features/starwars.php)

These are finally exciting times for us boxoffice fans again. :)

[Dutchy]

Oh, here's a review (http://orbitalreviews.com/movies/ROTS.html) of our good old friend Jonathan. :)

[jjwr]

I'll definetly see it again a few times, just not this weekend(as much as I'd like to).

Massive Midnight Gross, we are going to see some crazy numbers for the first few weeks on this. I would love it if the movie took down Shrek 2.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That thenumbers site said the high for Midnight showings was 12 million think they were off by 4.5 million wow. This could make 50 like you said Dutchy, it will depend on how many people went to see it during the day. It look liked the theaters were busy in the major cities yesterday from the lines I guess we will find out later today how well it did.

[Master Yoghurt]

<a href=http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/film/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000929079>International report - first day</a>

Some countries had biggest opening day ever.

[Jedieb]

I'm going this afternoon to take my son to his 2nd viewing and my 3rd. I'll probably catch it once more on Sunday with the boy and then we're probably done for awhile.

[AmazonBabe]

Could it beat the Matrix Reloaded opening day record of 42.7M? With all the sold out midnight screenings, counting for inflation and the increased print count, it just might.

At the theater we went to see it at, they had two 12:01am, two 12:20am, two 12:40am, and two 1:00am show. Just before the 12:01am show was going to start, I went outside to check out the lines for the other movies and they'd added (on the fly) two 1:20am shows. Apparently ppl were showing up to buy tickets so they had to open two more shows to fill up demand. :eek

I'd have to ask, but it's possible they added more shows after that. But I was already in the theater watching the movie, so there was no chance in hell I was leaving to check.

[CMJ]

Opening Day - $50,013,859...

I think I just had a heart attack.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Dutchy
JuMaybe $50M is possible.


Told ya! :)

[Dutchy]

My gawd, 50M... that is... HUGE...

[JediBoricua]

W...O...W

[JMK]

:eek

I can't believe that. I really thought there would be some hesitation among the general public because of the cold reception of TPM and AotC. That is simply mind blowing.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Holy moly! :eek

That's amazing. Let's hope it doesn't have like a 75% drop next week. ^_^;

[Jedieb]

Now we start crunching numbers and seeing if $400M & $500M are doable.:)

[Master Yoghurt]

I can't believe that. I really thought there would be some hesitation among the general public because of the cold reception of TPM and AotC. That is simply mind blowing

Thats excactly what I thought too. But the general public seem to have got the message. It has a good shot at all kinds of records in the first week now, particulary the 4-day record. If the 3-day weekend is equally impressive, I think it will do better than TPM overall.

[Master Yoghurt]

Originally posted by Jedieb
Now we start crunching numbers and seeing if $400M & $500M are doable.:)

$500M is possible if it keeps beating records in the first week AND has similar drops like TPM had (which had good if not great legs).


That's amazing. Let's hope it doesn't have like a 75% drop next week

I am tempted to say, if it drops 75% next week, I will eat my hat. But since I dont have any hat, I will wear the avatar of Jar Jar instead throughout the summer.

[Dutchy]

http://www.the-numbers.com/interactive/newsStory.php?newsID=1259


And finally the Grand Pooh-Bah, the Big Mac Daddy, the King of Kings, the greatest record of them all:


All Time Highest Grossing Movies - Current Record: $600.8 million - held by Titanic
It would be a minor miracle if this record were to fall, but if Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith doesn't break the record it won't be broken for a few more years at least. Odds of beating this record: 1%

Hehe, I like how he introduces that record. :)

[jjwr]

Well the first 3 records listed are done, fastest to $100 Million isn't going to happen, it would need 2 days and thats unheard of at this point. I'm guessing about 38-42 Million for Friday which puts it very close but not quite.

Largest weeked probably won't happen either, it should have the largest 3 day but it won't be 3 weekend days, largest 4 days is almost a lock after the 50M opening.

Fastest to 200M will be tough without a holiday weekend to bank off of, fastest to 300M could happen with half of it coming this weekend and another huge chunk next weekend.

The key to 400M or 500M will be how it does in weekend 3 and beyond, thats when the competition starts.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is just unbelievable I was thinking maybe 45 but 50 not in my wildest imaginations. And it is a Thursday which makes it more amazing. Can it duplicate this on Saturday??? And I agree 4 day is toast, should make 140-160 for the 4 days, 3 day is iff, should get past 100 but 114 isn't going to be easy, maybe like 105-110.

[Cat Terrist]

50 million... on a weekday.

Good God. That's.... incredible. No one's goign to be able to predict this thing right now.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
I am tempted to say, if it drops 75% next week, I will eat my hat. But since I dont have any hat, I will wear the avatar of Jar Jar instead throughout the summer.

Done! >D

If it beats Titanic I will dance a jig and gladly write a short story where Vader lands on the Titanic and kills Jack and Rose.

[CMJ]

I wouldn't think it has a greater than 5% chance to take down the big boat.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah it be tough, I think 500 million is the tops it could do.

[Jedieb]

I can't see how it could possibly reach 600M. A few years from now it would have had a chance because of inflation, but not right now. I just wonder how big the 3-D release will be a few years from now. ROTS may just need to get a bit north of $500M to have a shot at the boat one day.

[Dutchy]

$35.5M estimated for Friday.

[Jedieb]

Can't wait to see how big Saturday was. It could easily be over $45. Both Spidey and AOTC had their biggest days on Saturday. TPM had its second biggest day on its opening Saturday.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, the drop is not so bad concidering it was following the single highest gross on a day in box office history. The friday number is tracking way ahead of the previous prequels. Saturday should be great :)

[jjwr]

35.5 on Friday is great, thats a 80m+ opening for your typical movie, for this it should hit 45M on Saturday which would give it a chance at the 3 day record and the 4 day mark is as good as gone.

[Dutchy]

Estimates:

$40.9M for Saturday
108.5M for the 3-day weekend
158.5M for the 4-day weekend

[Jedieb]

Mojo's day by day estimates:
Thurs. 50.0
Fri. 33.8
Sat. 40.9
Sun. 33.8

I just got back from a 1:30 show with my son and a friend of his. The place was packed. The only available seats were the front row. I expected a higher Sat. gross but that's still more than respectable. I think it's pretty obvious these numbers will change during the week. I think it's a stretch that both Fri. and Sat. will have practically the same gross. I'm just hoping that when the final numbers come in a couple of those days go up.

[Cat Terrist]

If you think about it, ROTS would have had almost a clean shot at every theatre, who would have wanted to see anything else on Thursday? Plus, the amount of midnight screeners really helped boost the total. What your really seeing is that ROTS has hit the real limit of the availible screenings and really could not make any more. More than 40 million is such a difficult thing to do, you need so many theatres and showings.

158 million fouy day is insanely huge. Hell, 108 three day is insane. No one got close to predicting it.

[Jedieb]

Carr and I were close. I had $112 and $154, and Carr had $110 and $154. What none of us saw coming was that $50M Thursday. Those final numbers and next week's hold will be crucial. I wonder what the international numbers look like. I haven't checked any of them out.

[jjwr]

boxofficemojo is saying 302m Worldwide for the weekend, not sure if that includes all 4 days of the US release or not, either way its at least a 140M weekend worldwide which is huge as well.

Great numbers! Had Lucas wanted it he could have easily set a 3 day record but at least 4 day gives more people the chance to see it. Now the real question is next weekend, with another 4 day weekend this thing could be closing in on 300M by the end of next weekend.

[Jedieb]

I was looking at Guru and they had the number of prints, which I hadn't seen before. ROTS had over 9,400 prints compared to the 6,000 that AOTC had. I think it'll have a great shot at 300M by next weekend. The 4 day weekend and good word of mouth should help. But I think it's going to face some really tough competition in Mad and TLY. I know I want to see TLY, the original as well. I haven't seen it in ages.

[Jedieb]

The final numbers are in:
Friday
$33,529,613
Saturday
$40,693,760
Sunday
$34,212,468

Total so far
$158,449,700

Friday and Saturday went down a bit, but Sunday went up so it still managed to hit 158. Huge start. Now we have to see how it weathers the competition. Of course, if the numbers tumble we know it's all just part of a vast B.O. conspiracy.:rollin

[Cat Terrist]

Jedi3187!
Jedi3187!
Jedi3187!

[CMJ]

3167 actually....

Amazing how we remember that clown so well after six years.

[Jedieb]

Actually, you're both wrong. It was JediDumbas.... And we remember him because he came so close to unraveling our plot. :evil

[JediBoricua]

Get a life!!!!!! ;)

You guys remember the tshirt with GL on top of a naboo fighter sinking the Titanic?

Memories...

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL that guy was a clown. It is an amazing start, I think 350 is a lock. If it has decent legs it should get past 400, but it could stall out like Spiderman 2 did and stop in the 380's. WW it could get to 800 million which is really good.

[Jedieb]

Am the only one that's noticed a lot of people who skipped AOTC are coming back for ROTS? I talked to my parents over the weekend and my father, who loves to ridicule all things sci-fi, took my mother to see ROTS. My sister is also planning on seeing it. They both passed on AOTC. I think a lot of people are coming back to see Vader and the end of the series.

[JMK]

Yeah I think a lot of people are curious. All week I've heard people at the ball park, at the office, on the radio (sports radio mind you) talking about Star Wars. This movie is making the rounds and everyone is being sucked into the vortex this time.

[jjwr]

$14.2 Million Estimate for Monday...wow! After 5 days its pushing $172m, the 8 day $200m record is probably safe from getting broken but it may be tied. 300m mark is just about in the bag...

[JMK]

200 million in 8 days should be safe, I'm sure it will end up in a tie. It would have to average about 14 million for both tuesday and wednesday in order to break the record...which movie has the record anyway? Spider Man?

[jjwr]

Spiderman 2 has the record for 200m, Shrek 2 has the 300m record. It will be close to 200m by day 7 but I'm guessing about 20-23m combined for the next two days for 190-195M in 7, 200-205 in 8.

[JMK]

How long did it take Shrek 2 to get to 300M...and what makes you so certain that RotS will break that?

[JediBoricua]

Well in Puerto Rico it has made a whopping: $1,080,623

That's about .25 cents per capita. And the most expensive ticket here is only $6.

It has broken every single record.

[jjwr]

300M was 18 days, ok so it may not hit that point but after the monster opening week it will have to really bomb this coming weekend.

Figure 5 Days - 172 Million

Tuesday-Thursday - 28 Million = 200m in 8 Days.

Friday-Monday 4 Day Memorial Day Weekend - Ep 2 did 54% of its opening weekend on the same weekend, matching this would give Ep 3 - 85M for four days, being conservative and say 65M

= 265M through 14 Days. Needs 7.5M per day counting the following Friday to match. Not 100% Guaranteed but if it holds up well next weekend the record will fall, if not then it will be tougher but should tie.

[Master Yoghurt]

Well in Puerto Rico it has made a whopping: $1,080,623

That's about .25 cents per capita. And the most expensive ticket here is only $6.

It has broken every single record

In Oslo, it made somewhere between $1-2 per capita just over the weekend, but movie tickets here are very expensive - like $14 for adult ticket. In terms of actual visits (box office is calculated in actual # of paid tickets here), "only" 1/6th of the population watched it from thursday to sunday. I say only, because thats peanuts compared to the LOTR movies. However, Norwegians are absolute lunatic fanatist Tolkien worshippers. Its clear that it wont break any records here. To do that, it would have to do double the traffic at least.


$14.2 Million Estimate for Monday...wow! After 5 days its pushing $172m, the 8 day $200m record is probably safe from getting broken but it may be tied. 300m mark is just about in the bag...

The monday number is actually incredible strong, allready indicating this wont be as frontloaded as its predecessor. It ranks among the highest mondays ever and its a normal non holiday weekday. In comparison, AOTC made 10.6M on its first monday and TPM made 10.8.

The $200M record will certainly be tied.

Shrek 2 made $300M in 18 days. I think ROTS got a very good chance to beat that, because its tracking far ahead of Shrek 2. Currently, its at 172M after 5 days, while S2 was only at 129M at the same point in time. ROTS will have to hit the 300M by friday in its third weekend.

[Jedieb]

I'm not that concerned with fastest to 100M marks. Legs, I want to see legs. That Monday hold was pretty good. A bigger % drop than AOTC, but it had a much higher total to drop from. I think ROTS has a great shot to avoid dropping under $10 this first week which will really pad it's numbers. Thursday and Wed. should be it's low days this week. If they're over 10M then I think that's a sign that we're looking at $400M for sure.

[Master Yoghurt]

I allready feel fairly certain its going to hit $400M. The Force is strong in this one.

[Jedieb]

Anyone seen how ROTS is holding up on IMBD? The other day it was right behind ROTJ at 131. It's slipped a bit but it's the first prequel so far to make the top #250.

8. ANH - Votes: 137,038 Avg: (8.7)
10. ESB - 105,779 (8.7)
130. ROTJ - 84,345 (8.0)
166. ROTS - 31,543 (7.9)

AOTC 7.0/10 (66,440 votes)
TPM 6.4/10 (86,892 votes)

I think it'll stay there and it has an outside shot at overtaking ROTJ.

[JMK]

I think in the end it may overtake it. But if it misses, it will be just barely. Still, it's proof positive that the general public is digging this movie in a way that TPM and AotC hasn't been appreciated.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JMK
Still, it's proof positive that the general public is digging this movie in a way that TPM and AotC hasn't been appreciated.

I really miss Jonathan. I bet he could write a 300 paged book to prove you wrong. :)

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Dutchy
I really miss Jonathan. I bet he could write a 300 paged book to prove you wrong. :)

Actually I think it's 250 pages. http://www.anticipationbook.com/

;)

BTW - I find imdb rankings to be garbage. I love the site for the info but people that post and vote there are morons. It's like all AOL users. ;)

[JMK]

You're right, for the most part I don't put much stock in IMDB's rankings. But in the case of SW, I give them a little credit. When you tell SW bashers that ANH is #8 all time, ESB is #10, according to IMDB, their main response is that it's all Star Wars nerds voting over and over to boost its ranking. If that were true then the same Star Wars nerds would vote again and again to prop up TPM and AotC, but that hasn't happened.

[CMJ]

Tuesday total - 9.9M

[JMK]

Just shy of double digits! :(

[jjwr]

Yeah just under 10M, I was thinking it would go a bit higher. It needs to average 8.65M the next two days to tie the record. I know its not a big deal but it would be nice for it to gets its name on as many records as possible.

Jonathon...blech! He's not a bad guy as long as you agree with everything he says cause otherwise your obviously wrong ;)

[Master Yoghurt]

Ouch, I was hoping for 11M at least. Hope it does not continue to lose steam at this rate for the remaining weekdays, or I will start to have some doubts about its legs.

[Dutchy]

Indeed, 9.9M is a tad bit on the disappointing side.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Too bad I wasn't able to post here before I would have helped to give some caution to monday's numbers :) Monday was a holiday in canada. Victoria's Day I think Shrek 2 had a huge boost last year as I remember and it dropped the same 30% as ROTS on Tuesday. So really it is not bad, heck how many movies make close to 10 million when school is stilll going on? Really we won't know the legs of the film until after Memorial Day. I think it might barely get to 200 million by Thursday or be a million off. And it can make another 70-80 million for that four day weekend that would put it at 270-280 which would get it close already to 300.

[Jedieb]

You're right, for the most part I don't put much stock in IMDB's rankings. But in the case of SW, I give them a little credit. When you tell SW bashers that ANH is #8 all time, ESB is #10, according to IMDB, their main response is that it's all Star Wars nerds voting over and over to boost its ranking. If that were true then the same Star Wars nerds would vote again and again to prop up TPM and AotC, but that hasn't happened.

That's one of the reasons I brought it up. Whatever you think of the site, it does give a pretty large sample of voters. In fact, a few of us have probably already cast our votes. I was a bit dissapointed with the 9.9. Wed. is sure to be lower. Strong competition this week. Gotta think that even if ROTS holds on to #1 the Sandler comedy is going to pull alot of 18-35 males.

[JMK]

I've never voted on IMDB for any movie.

And The Longest Yard will not get my money as long as RotS is in theaters!

[darth_mcbain]

I don't know about those ratings on IMDB. It pretty much seems like the hottest movie out in the theaters invariably goes up into the top 250. If you look at a sampling of their top 250, there are tons of movies from 2000 onward. I get the impression that their voting is solely based on what's hot right now. I remember when The Two Towers was coming out, it was listed as the #2 movie of all time two days before it's release. I think that just goes to prove what a flawed system of voting they have...

[Master Yoghurt]

Youre right that the IMDB ratings are skewed towards newer releases, because they are hot and popular at that time etc. But given some time, an overrated movie tends to stabilise/correct to more appropriate level. Honestly, even if there are some new entries pops in on the top 250 list from time to time, its still a pretty decent representation of some of the best films in motion picture history.

And yeah, there are some new movies in there, but at least its a balanced mix, not like some of the pretentious high brow lists which only list movies if its more than 30 years old..


When you tell SW bashers that ANH is #8 all time, ESB is #10, according to IMDB, their main response is that it's all Star Wars nerds voting over and over to boost its ranking. If that were true then the same Star Wars nerds would vote again and again to prop up TPM and AotC, but that hasn't happened

Not only that, but if you look at how the voting is distributed you can tell alot about what the consensus is. Take a look at ROTS for example:

10 47%
9 21%
8 13%
7 7%
6 3.7%
5 2.0%
4 1.3%
3 1.0%
2 0.6%
1 3.6%

It just gradually declines making for a nice curve down to the lower grades. In fact, the only one that stands out are those who voted 1 which is 6x the amount who voted 2. Most of those can probably be counted as sabotage votes.

TPM in contrast got most amount of votes a 7, and a substantial amount of votes 6, 5 and 4, pulling the average down to a more realistic 6.4.

[Jedieb]

It's not just new releases that show up on IMBD. They've got a ton of classics in their top 250. Everything from Casablanca to the Godfather. Hell, some of my old time favorites like His Girl Friday are in the top 250. If you go through the list you can find movies from just about any decade.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, there are like 4 Hitchcock movies among the top 34. Which is really cool IMO. A large portion of the movies seem to be in the range 40s to early 70s era, which is a favorite period of mine and a golden age of cinematics. That was before Hollywood started putting out modern blockbusters like jaws etc.

[Master Yoghurt]

Wednesday: 8.7 million -12.7%

Episode III made 191.4 million in its first week

[JMK]

and like Star Wars? ;)

Lucas and Spielberg get all the heat from highbrows for 'killing cinema'.

[JMK]

$8,652,951 for Wednesday. Disappointing, yet predictable considering Tuesday's and Wednesday's performances. :\

It's going to take 8.63 million tonight to tie the 200M record.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Darth McBain
I don't know about those ratings on IMDB. It pretty much seems like the hottest movie out in the theaters invariably goes up into the top 250. If you look at a sampling of their top 250, there are tons of movies from 2000 onward. I get the impression that their voting is solely based on what's hot right now. I remember when The Two Towers was coming out, it was listed as the #2 movie of all time two days before it's release. I think that just goes to prove what a flawed system of voting they have...

Those are all great movies (well, except Dogville, which I hate) from 2000 onward. And they're not THAT recent anymore.

What's wrong with valueing contemporary movies? I personally like 'em much more than ancient ones.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
Episode III made 191.4 million in its first week

Not a record: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weeks.htm

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Spiderman 2 had a lot of help from the 4th of July that is why it has it. It made like almost 20 million on the monday after the fourth which really helped it. Actually SP2 took a nose dive after that, and I have no idea why. Also 8.7 is a really good day for a wednesday during the middle of May. I think it can get about 8.5-8.9 for Thursday and hopefully make 200 million before Memorial day. Also about The Longest Yard it looks horrible, IMO. It looks like the worst Sandler film I have seen, I haven't laughed at any of the trailers so far.

[jjwr]

It just missed the highest grossing week and will probably miss tying the fastest to 200M. Considering what Sp2 had going for it though, opened on the 4th of July weekend, so it had a 4 day weekend and then another Friday to get the record and only 3 week days thrown in, and it played in about 400 more theatres.

What that really says is how amazing Ep3 is doing considering its not super huge launch(though it is quite large) and hasn't had a holiday weekend yet...and no last Thursday didn't count as a holiday :)

[Dutchy]

$9.1M for Thursday, so it did tie the fastest to $200M after all. :)

$200.4M, to be exact. SM2 was at $202.0M on its 8th day, so if they use that as a tie-breaker, SM2 will stay number 1.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I had a feeling there might be a small boost on thursday. It seems to have stabilised, which is good news. Next milestone; fastest to 300M, which I am confident it will make.

[Dutchy]

Yup, behind SM2: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/fastest.htm?page=200&p=.htm

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
Yeah, I had a feeling there might be a small boost on thursday. It seems to have stabilised, which is good news. Next milestone; fastest to 300M, which I am confident it will make.

Yeah, it has a good shot at the $300M record.

[jjwr]

Very nice, after the Monday #'s I think we got a bit of a false sense of hope of it being able to take the record but at least it tied it. Now the 300M should fall, though this weekends take will definetly be key.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Also impressed neither TPM or AOTC increased on its second thursday, they both had slight decreases. I think that is a good sign for future legs. Also SM2 had a huge advantage with the 4th that is why it has the record.

[jjwr]

SM2 had a lot more going for it for the front loaded start, a 4 day weekend and then another friday, considering it had a regular weekend and 5 week days Ep3 did just fine :)

[Jedieb]

I'm going nuts and predicting $90M for the 4 day weekend. The Devil isn't far behind with around 87M. If eithe one of us is close that should put $300M within reach Wed. or Thurs. I don't think a double digit Tues. is a realistic guess. I think the next couple of weeks after that should give plenty of younger fans a chance to get in repeat viewings. Schools will be letting out for summer around the country. My son is done next week and I'm finished on June the 10th. Time to pile up the summer viewings.

[Master Yoghurt]

I really hope youre right Jedieb. If it makes more than 90, its TPM type of legs, and we could start calculating scenarios for 500M.. :)

I allready concider 400M+ a lock at this time.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedieb
I'm going nuts and predicting $90M for the 4 day weekend. The Devil isn't far behind with around 87M. If eithe one of us is close that should put $300M within reach Wed. or Thurs. I don't think a double digit Tues. is a realistic guess.

Tuesday is only its 13th day, it has another 4 days to break the record, which would include another Friday and Saturday.

Should be a piece of cake, even with a $75M 4-day weekend, or so.

Shrek 2 holds the current record with 18 days.

[JMK]

Very close friday evening at the cinemas. RotS falls to #2 for the night and needs to finish the weekend if it wants to be #1. I think it would be a huge shock if it dethroned as #1 after only one week.

1. The Longest Yard $15,750,000
2. Revenge of the Sith $15,470,000
3. Madagascar $14,030,000

[Lilaena De'Ville]

We're going to see it again tonight. :D

[JMK]

Us too, gotta pitch in and help the cause! And just to make sure I help as much as possible, I'm going to the most expensive theater in town! Digital baby!:rollin

[Jinn Fizz]

I'm going to see it again tomorrow, and I know of at least a couple of people at work who were planning on seeing it this weekend. And I think my sister and a good ol' friend of mine are planning to go as well. So we'll definitely do our part.

I think ROTS still has a great chance of being #1 for the weekend...WOM on both The Longest Yard and Madagascar isn't all that great. And even if they do decently, they'll drop off sharply next week.

And even if ROTS does fall off more than we expected this weekend, I don't think I'll be totally surprised...it sounds cliched by now, but the very dark tone of this one could cause repeat viewings to be a little lower than for the previous movies in the series.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Originally posted by Jinn Fizz
And even if ROTS does fall off more than we expected this weekend, I don't think I'll be totally surprised...it sounds cliched by now, but the very dark tone of this one could cause repeat viewings to be a little lower than for the previous movies in the series.

I agree - I saw AotC about 10 times while it was in the theatres, but I'm not sure I'll manage more than perhaps 4 times on RotS. That, and money is a bit tighter with a house payment this year. ;)

[Jedieb]

Well, 85M-90M looks like a dream, but #1 is up for grabs.
Friday's Estimates
1. The Longest Yard $15,750,000
2. Revenge of the Sith $15,470,000
3. Madagascar $14,030,000
4. Monster-in-Law $2,690,000
5. Kicking and Screaming $1,270,000

[Quadinaros]

Hmm...

I'll guess The Longest Yard finishes the 4-day weekend 3rd, while ROTS and Magadascar battle it out for 1st. Unfortunately I'll give the edge to Magadascar, cause it should get a big Saturday and Sunday bounce.

Not to worry, ROTS will be back on top by Tuesday, then we'll see what happens next week. :smokin