NFL Pick 'Em, Super Bowl XXXIX

[Figrin D'an]

Sunday, February 6th

New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

from ALLTEL Stadium in Jacksonville, FL.

Kickoff: 6:30PM ET


Current line: New England by 7 (subject to change as week progresses)
Over/Under: 47.5 (subject to change as week progresses)


Picks must be in by kickoff on Sunday.

Good luck to everyone.

[Ryan Pode]

New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles Win


Over.


34-31, Eagles.

[Sarr Koon]

We all know the Patriots are going to win...no matter how much I would rather that not happen.

(W) New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

UNDER and pats won't beat the spread.

[Master Yoghurt]

Whats that New England by 7 thing?

Anyway..

New England Patriots (W) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Over/Under 47.5: UNDER

[JMK]

I'll take the Pats and the over.

[Figrin D'an]

New England Patriots (W) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

... over and beating the spread.

I'm expecting the Pats to make a statement in this game. Their last two Super Bowl wins came by only 3 points each time. They know the "D" word is being tossed out their about them, and I just have a feeling that they want to stomp the Eagles and solidify themselves as one of the greatest teams in NFL history. I expect Brady to have some great stats, get another Super Bowl MVP award, and lead his team to a big win, by about 17-20 points. Blowout city.

[Charley]

I'll take Jim Beam beating the spread and the over. :cry Why do you forsake me, Steelers :cry

[Master Yoghurt]

I have a feeling Pats wont beat the spread (7 points). Its going to be a close game with 2 great defenses, but Patriots win narrowly.

[jjwr]

Pats with the win and I'll take the Over.

I feel Figrin has it on the nose, this team knows if it makes a statement againt a very good Eagles team they will have a very solid place in history, with the two coaches leaving and a number of aging Vets they know this is it before some changes come rolling in.

Pats 38 - Eagles 17

[Jedieb]

I'll be rooting for the Eagles but if I were betting I'd take the Patriots to cover the spread. I'd also take the UNDER.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I smell Blowout too so I say Pats and they will cover the spread.

[Phantom]

Patriots - Over the spread.

[jjwr]

Just to clarify my thoughts a bit more, while I do feel the Pats will come out and take care of business I don't think it will necessarily be easy. Like the Steelers game things went well for them becuase they executed, had no turnovers and the Steelers did. I'm seeing a similar game here but I'm also not discounting that it could be a very close game or that the Pats could lose. Eagles are not a walkover team, if you turn the ball over 4 times on them you could lose the game.

If the Pats take care of the ball, stick to the their game plan and get a few turnovers from the Eagles they should take the game.

[Master Yoghurt]

I dont think there will be a lot of turnovers though. Instead, there will be some punting.

[jjwr]

The biggest threat for Turnovers is Interceptions, Eagles have a very strong secondary and the Pats secondary will probably confuse McNabb a few times or knock receivers off their routes so they'll have their shots at overthrown, underthrown, etc balls.

[TieFighterPilot181st]

Eagles will win by 3

[Nathanial K'cansce]

Patriots and over.

[TieFighterPilot181st]

whats over/under?

[Master Yoghurt]

Over/Under is how much total points you think will be scored. Say Pats win 21-19, thats 21+19=40 and its under. If Pats win 30-25, thats 30+25=55 and its over.

[Jedieb]

We know how the Pats win the big games, great defense, great game plans, they force big turnovers, and they take care of the ball. So, how can the Eables pull off the upset?

1) Special Teams
The Eagles need at least 1 big play from their special teams. A big return, FG block, punt block, something of that nature that either results in a TD, or gives them the ball in the red zone.

2) Turn overs
NONE. Not a single fumble or INT. The Pats THRIVE on turnovers. It pumps up their defense and the offense usually makes teams pay. Also, that defense needs to force some turnovers. Whether it's Kearse sacking Brady and forcing a fumble, or someone like Trotter stripping Dillon and causing a fumble. At some point, the ball is either going to hit the turf, or the hands of an Eagle DB. They MUST make the play. The Colts' secondary had 2 balls hit their hands and they dropped them both. You can't give Brady and that offense free passes.

3) McNab
At some point, McNab is going to face a key 3rd down. And I mean EARLY in the game. He's got to use his legs to keep drives alive. He did it against the Cowboys when TO went down. If the Pats clamp down on the Eagles wideouts and TE's, then McNab should be able to find some lanes to keep the chains moving. In their 2 Superbowl victories and several playoff wins, the Pats shut teams down in the first half. If the Eagles can get some points out of their early drives, then they'll find themselves with a chance to win.

4) TO
He's irrelevant. Even if he plays, he's not going to at full strength. If he makes a couple of catches, it'll be a boost to his team. But the Eagles don't need him to have a big game and I don't think Andy Reed is game planning on TO being a huge part of the game. By some miracle, if TO gets a TD, it'll be a huge morale boost for the Eagles. But more importantly, at some point next year, we'll get to see Reed in tights. :crack

[jjwr]

Reid in tights....scarry!

Looks like Seymour is just about back to full strength and will be playing. His addition will bring more to the Pats than TO's will to the Eagles.

Dr. Z has a good position by position breakdown on www.cnnsi.com he's very knowledgable and its good stuff.

[JMK]

I think the bottom line is that the Eagles a couple BIG breaks to win this game. No turnovers is key for them. The Pats haven't had to play a QB like McNabb in a game like this in quite some time. He's got to make plays like you said Eb. He HAS to make sure he keep that Patriot offense on the sidelines. They're so good at chewing up the clock and leaving you no choice other than than heaving the ball downfield.

[Figrin D'an]

In other football news, Emmitt Smith called it a career today. It was expected that he was going to retire, but it's still a somewhat somber day when the all-time leading rusher hangs it up. Although I always hated the Cowboys, he was a hell of a player, and I enjoyed watching him.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it was time for him. I am like you Fig I hated the cowboys but had to admit he was a heck of a player.

[Jedieb]

I loved Emmit. That 90's Cowboys team was a great one to watch and I was a big fan. He signed a ceremonial one day contract with Jones today to retire as a Cowboy. Emmit belongs on the all time great RB list. Anywhere you put him from 2-5 is justified. I put him at 3 or 4 behind Jim Brown and Payton. I've always put Emmit ahead of Barry because as spectacular as Sanders was he had 2 major faults in my book and Emmit had one HUGE strength. One, he had a lot of negative plays. Two, he basically quit on his team. If he'd kept playing as long as Emmit then he'd be the all time rushing leader, but he didn't. Emmit played those extra years and was healthy and effective for most of them. That pounding is what puts him ahead of Barry for me. As for Emmit's strength, TOUCHDOWNS. Emmit knew how to get in the end zone. The last Superbowl against the Steelers is a perfect example. Even though the Steelers contained him and kept him under 60 yards, they still couldn't stop him when it counted and he scored 2 TD's. The last one basically sealed the game. I'll miss the guy.

[jjwr]

Definetly a class act, his performance in '93 against the Giants is flat out legendary. Definetly in the top 4 running backs of all time, figure Brown, Payton, Emmitt and Barry are the top 4, their ranking typicaly veries.

I personally think Barry was the best, the guy was incredible. Yeah he had a number of negative plays but considering his ypc was still 5ish for his career he easily made up for each time he was stopped short. One way to look at it, while Emmitt would have been great regardless of where he played but I doubt he would be rushing champ if he played for the Lions and vice-versa. Image Barry running behind that Cowboys line? All those negative plays would have been diminished and he would have put up incredibly scary numbers.

I'm glad Emmitt hung it up though, he had nothing left to prove, he would have been a backup on a team and you don't want to see a player of his magntitude being a forgotten cog(COUGH *RICE* COUGH).

[JMK]

Yeah I'll miss the guy, definetly he was a stud in the backfield. As for me he's in the top 5, probably around 3 or 4.

[Jedieb]

I think Rice is in some serious denial. The way he was ignored by the Seahawks in their playoff loss to the Rams should have been the final wake up call. I mean, how many passes did those Seahawk receivers drop? Yet, they still didn't call Rice's number?! How could you not have those hands in the game on that last play? The only answer is that his skills have deteriorated to the point that he couldn't even make it into the game. I really hope he comes to his senses this offseason.

[JMK]

I don't think he will. I think that he still believes that he can contribute to a team as a legit #2 or #3 receiver if they would only throw the ball his way a little more often. He should have retired when the Raiders let him go. Or maybe even after Superbowl 37.

[jjwr]

I wish he would retire, hate to see him go down like this.

Going back to our kickers discussion and Vinatieri, this article on CNNSI goes into good detail on his most difficult kick and ranks it as one of the top 5 players in NFL history.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/michael_silver/02/04/five.plays/index.html

[Master Yoghurt]

Are you ready for some footbaaaaaall!

Tonight is the night! Gooooo Eagles! :cool

[Master Yoghurt]

Touchdown Eagles... YEEES!

As a side note and general observation of the game, Eagles are obviously not going to spend much time running the ball, so McNabb is key here. Some bad throws and nearly a fumble early in the game. He really needs to sharpen up if the Eagles are to have any chance. They also need to cover him better so he has the chance of throwing the ball without getting sacked..

Anyone else impressed by Owens? No one would have guessed he got a steel plate mounted in his right leg.

Guess no one else is on, so back to my TV to watch the game :)

[Ryan Pode]

Wow. Great clock management. . .

T.O. = 9 Catches, 122 yards, 2 Pins.

[Master Yoghurt]

The good news, I predicted right on all accounts. The bad news is Patriots won. 3 out of 4... yep, thats a dynasty allright.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Terrible clock managment by the Eagles what the heck was that with 5 minutes going down the field like they were down by 7 instead of 10. It came back to bite them. Of course the 4 turnovers were huge it is impossible to win with that many turnovers. Also what a game by Deion Branch he tied Rice's record.

[CMJ]

Patriots are clutch, that's for sure. Not sure where history will rank them among the all-time dynasties but they're in the discssion. Heck, they may not be done yet either.

The AFC has won 6 out of the last 8 Superbowls. The NFC leads all-time 21-18. I'm thinking in about 5 years it might be squared away, for the first time since after XXIV.

[Ryan Pode]

I think the last turnover was a result of poor clock management. Just a pressure throw.

[Master Yoghurt]

Branch was great, but if there was anyone out there who played big, it was Terrel Owens. You gotta respect what he did out there. 7 weeks ago, he broke his leg. Allmost everyone counted him out, yet here he makes 122 yards and he could have made one heck of a lot more if McNabb played somewhat decent. McNabb was a disaster.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well don't know if it was Mcnabb's fault or not about the poor clock play, that fault probably lies with the coachins staff. Why did they take forever in the huddle for example? As for Patroits dynasty, well I think they are for sure, where they ranks who knows people will be facing them up with the Niners, Steelers, Packers and Cowboys for a long time. Finally who would have thought it that Boston is the Sports capital of the world. Champions in football and Baseball, heck if Boston College could win the the National title they have a clean sweep :p

[Figrin D'an]

Thoughts on the game:

- This had to be the most boring "close" Super Bowl yet. There wasn't a single moment at which I though the Patriots might not win. It was like New England was intentionally playing it close to the vest, trying to make it more dramatic. Even then... it wasn't.

- There are now 5 dynasties in modern NFL history... Packers (1960's), Steelers (1970's), 49ers (1980's), Cowboys (1990's), Patriots (2000's). However, the ESPN guys who are saying that Bellichek is as good as or better than Vince Lombardi need to get off of the snap-judgement hyperbole bandwagon. He's a great coach... maybe tied for the best tactician the league has ever seen along with Bill Walsh... but Lombardi won 5 championships in 7 years, and the last two (Super Bowls I and II) were amazing coaching jobs. The team was well past its prime, and suffered a lot of injuries (especially in the 1967 season), yet he pushed them to win two more titles. Sorry... Lombardi is still the best in NFL history.

- Donovan McNabb looked like a rookie at times tonight. He made some bad decisions, hurried his throws, was telegraphing his passes, and just looked very uncomfortable for much of the game. Part of that was the Pats defense, but a QB with his skills and experience, in the prime of his career, needs to play better in the spotlight than he did.

- Kudos to Terrell Owens for playing, and playing as well as he did. He did more than could have been expected, even if he had been completely healthy. His teammates didn't step up (coughFreddieMitchellcough) and give him much help.

- Matt Light (Pats RT) kicked Jevon Kearse' butt on every snap in this game. If the Eagles were to get pressure on Brady, they needed Kearse to draw double teams and create havok. But it didn't happen, because Light completely nullified Kearse' pass rushing ability. This was a key battle in the game that the Pats won big-time.

- When the Eagles couldn't establish the run early on, the game was over. The only way to beat the Pats is to run the football right at them and be more physical at the line of scrimmage. Not many teams can do that, but if Philly could have kept the Pats D honest with the run, they might have won the game.

- The Eagles clock management was about the worst in a big game that I have ever seen. No sense of urgency, and put way too much pressure on their defense to get the ball back, then left too little time to calmly move the ball down the field for a field goal attempt. Really, really dumb. Andy Reid is going to face some harsh questions about this for the next week or so from the Philly media.

- New England will be hard pressed to find replacements to fill the shoes of Charlie Weiss and Romeo Cronell. The Pats will still be a very good team, but the departure of those two, along with likely a couple of key personal losses via free agency, will prevent them from winning again next year.



Congrats to New England on joining the dynasty club. It's been an impressive run. They may not win next year, but if the core of the team stays intact, they'll have opportunities to win again over the next 5-7 years or so.

[jjwr]

I have to agree with your first comment Figrin, the game really didn't have any sense of urgency to it, there was definetly a boring feel to the game as a whole, and it was close but nowhere near the drame of last years game. I really wish the Pats had put it way earlier, when they went up by 10 and had a few chances to score again to put it away, even when up by 7 and couldn't get it into the end-zone, a TD right there could have ended the game.

Great game though, not quite what I was expecting but a great game regardless. During the 4th quarter when they said McNabb had piled up 350+ yards I was suprised, it didn't seem like he was having anywhere near that good of a game, and really he wasn't, the Pats as typical give up yards but not a lot of points.

TO played a great game, if he hadn't played this would have been a blowout, he was the only receiver consistently getting seperation and making the big catches.

Deion Branch...this guy is good! He's only in his 3rd year, already has 10 and 11 catches in his first two superbowl games and is the best reciever on the team when he's healthy, the key is keeping him there.

While not under the same circumstances as the past few Vinatieri ends up with the game winning kick again :)

As for next year, it will be very hard to replace both coaches, they have some good coaches on staff who may be able to step up but there is some question whether they can keep them or not. It will be very interesting, 3 in a row with teams like the Colts, Steelers, etc only getting better will be very hard but they are good enough that they should be a playoff team for a while yet.

[JMK]

Not a great game...but not a terrible game either. The Eagles kept it close, dangling the carrot in front of all of us who hoped the Pats would finally lose a big game. Of course, anyone who really follows football knows that the Pats thrive in these situations, they always do just a little bit more in order to win.

McNabb looked unsure of himself all night and was erratic. He floated passed that Pats DB's camped under, he rifled passes to receivers only 10 yards away...he was not comfortable in there at all.

Watching the Eagles <smallfont color={hovercolor}>-Censored-</smallfont> away the clock in the 4th is among one of the dumbest things I've ever seen in sports. I couldn't believe my eyes!!

As for Belichick being the best coach ever...he's got to keep winning Superbowls. At least one more, and he'd be best to do it next year. In many ways, next year will be his defining season. With the departures of Weis and Crennel, if Belichick can't win another superbowl with this team then most historians and analysts will give more credit to his staff than to him personally.

[jjwr]

Belechick needs more season's under him to be considered the best ever, he's definetly on his way but 3 good years out of 4 doesn't make the best ever. He had average to subpar years in Cleveland, 1 bad year in New England(admittedly he totally rebuilt the team that year) and 1 year where they missed the playoffs. As long as he keeps winning lots of games and getting to the playoffs he'll build his resume up and should take the cake before he's done.

[Master Yoghurt]

Dont laugh, but I think the best thing about the Super Bowl was the half time show. Great performance by Sir Paul McCartney.. :p

[jjwr]

One thing I Just realized, McNabb didn't pull the ball down and run at all, the few times he went for it was when a pass broke down. I really figured he would have some solid rushing yards in the game but was pretty much contained in the pocket.

[JMK]

Yeah, there were really no plays designed for McNabb to use his athleticism to help the team. They relied on him to throw for big scores in order to win, which is totally on Andy Reid. What a poor game plan they had for the game.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Mcnabb's performance reminded me of Jim Kelly a couple of times. He had a couple of games like that, one where he racked up close to 400 yards and threw over 50 passes but he really didn't have that good of a game. As for next season it should be interesting, it is going to be tough for the Pats to repeat. First you have the Colts and Steelers, throw in the Bills and Jags who are getting better. Then you have a few teams who could improve and turn it around from last season like the Chiefs, Broncos, and Ravens. The AFC is just a tough conference.

[TieFighterPilot181st]

I'm really dissapointed with the Eagles. After seeing T.O play pretty solid for the first quarter and a half i expected the eagles to go deep to him a bit more. The Eagles should have taken advantage of the two rookie N.E corners. And i am in shock at Philly's clock management.

[Jedieb]

The one brightside? My hangover was a minor one!

The Pats outcoached and outhustled the Eagles. The Eagles caught some early breaks, but they didn't really capitalize on them. Like many of you have noticed, that had to be the worst clock management in Superbowl history. It was stunning to see Philly lineman strolling back to the huddle. I saw a clip of one of them shooting the breeze with a Pats lineman while the clock ticked away. There's simply no excuse for that. That one's on the team and the coaching staff. Good gawd, is it me, or is poor clock management a sign of the times? You see it over and over these days. In the 80's and 90's, all the top teams knew how to run 2 minute drills and work the clock in the 4th quarter. Today it's a rare talent. The Pats have it down and it's a one of the reasons they've got their 3rd title in 4 years.

If Reid and McNab had found their brains in that 4th quarter, Owens would have been the game's MVP. That was an amazing effort. If his QB had matched it, the Eagles would have won that game.

Crap, now my life has nothing to offer until spring training.... Wait, there's a movie coming out in a couple of months, right?

[Ryan Pode]

A lot of teams can do it, you just hear about the teams that seriously screw up. Heck, even the Ravens hurry up offense was somewhat effective, managing 2 TDs in two situations this season. The Bengals had a very good 2 minute drill as well, coming back against the Ravens.

[JMK]

Originally posted by Jedieb
Crap, now my life has nothing to offer until spring training.... Wait, there's a movie coming out in a couple of months, right?

We have now entered the black hole of the sporting world. Nothing going on at all, unless you consider the NBA entertaining.

Baseball spring training opens soon...hopefully some good stuff comes out of there. Is it a coincidence that Canseco's book will be ready for the start of spring training? ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

The NCAA tournment is coming up in about three weeks that works for me until April.

[Master Yoghurt]

Crap, now my life has nothing to offer until spring training.... Wait, there's a movie coming out in a couple of months, right?

For you americans that is. The rest of the world plays REAL football all year long, you know the kind where youre actually use your feet to kick the ball instead of cheating carrying it around with your hands.. ;)

[Ryan Pode]

Punters and placekickers.

[jjwr]

Yay! Just got back from the Parade in Boston...it was awesome!!!!

Ended up right on the guardrails so we were about 10 feet from Brady, Bruschi, Seymour, the Trophies, etc!

Here are a few pictures from one of the guys I went with, he got one of the 3 of us, course I didn't know the picture was taken and look completely retarded in it, but you'll have that!(the tall goofy guy in the middle)

http://www.joecustoms.com/board/files/patscrew-1.jpg
http://www.joecustoms.com/board/files/patsrally-2.jpg
http://www.joecustoms.com/board/files/patsrally-3.jpg
http://www.joecustoms.com/board/files/patsrally-4.jpg