Hurricane Ivan

[CMJ]

It's starting to be like an airport terminal. They're just in holding patterns. :p This story has acouple of facts wrong(example: Luis was in 1995 - not 90), but the gist is right on.

At Least Nine Killed by Hurricane Ivan



By LOREN BROWN, Associated Press Writer

ST. GEORGE'S, Grenada - Hurricane Ivan made a direct hit on Grenada with ferocious winds, causing "incalculable damage" and killing at least nine people as it turned concrete homes into rubble and hurled hundreds of the island's landmark red zinc roofs through the air, officials said Wednesday.

The most powerful storm to hit the Caribbean in 14 years reportedly devastated Grenada's capital, St. George's, and damaged homes in Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent. Thousands were without water, electricity and telephone service just days after Hurricane Frances rampaged through.

"We are terribly devastated here in Grenada," Prime Minister Keith Mitchell said in comments broadcast Wednesday by radio stations in Barbados. "It's beyond any imagination."

The prime minister, whose own home was destroyed, spoke from aboard the British naval patrol vessel HMS Richmond, apparently by satellite telephone.

Ivan strengthened even as it was over Grenada on Tuesday, becoming a Category 4 storm. It got even stronger as it headed across the Caribbean Sea, passing north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

Mitchell said at least nine storm-related deaths had been reported and he feared the toll would rise.

"If you see the country today, it would be a surprise to anyone that we did not have more deaths than it appears at the moment," he said. "I don't think anyone expected the kind of damage that they saw."

Sporadic looting also was reported in St. George's, a British Royal Navy spokesman said on condition of anonymity, speaking from London. HMS Richmond and a British supply ship were providing disaster relief to the former colony, he said.

The storm was threatening to cross right over Jamaica by Friday morning or Saturday, and then Cuba, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) in Miami said.

"After Jamaica, it's probably going to hit somewhere in the U.S., unfortunately," said meteorologist Jennifer Pralgo of the Hurricane Center. "We're hoping it's not Florida again, but it's taking a fairly similar track to Charley at the moment."

Hurricane Charley killed 27 people in southwest Florida last month and caused an estimated $6.8 billion in insured damage.

Ivan terrorized Grenada for about two hours, said Hugh Cobb of the Hurricane Center.

"They took a really bad beating," he said, adding this grim warning: "Whoever gets this, it's going to be bad."

Ivan's sustained winds were clocked at 120 mph as it raced through the Windward Islands. But it strengthened to 140 mph with gusts just over 160 mph.

Cobb said Ivan would be the first Category 4 storm to hit Caribbean islands since Hurricane Luis in 1990.

He said that if Ivan hit Jamaica, it could be more destructive than Hurricane Gilbert, which was only a Category 3 storm when it devastated the island in 1988.

Howling winds raged through the hilly streets of St. George's, Grenada's capital, trashing concrete homes, uprooting trees and utility poles, and knocking out telephone service and electricity. The islands were cut off and transmission was halted from the Grenada Broadcast Network.

ChevronTexaco said it evacuated nonessential staff from a natural gas well off Venezuela's Atlantic coast.

The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency based in Barbados said St. George's "suffered incalculable damage" and Grenada's emergency disaster office, at the 19th century Great House at Mount Wheldale, was destroyed. Grenada's airport also was damaged and an air charter company in Barbados said it was refused permission to fly in.

The Barbados agency said it was sending a relief team to Grenada.

St. George's main hospital also was damaged, the agency said, as were some shelters. "The population in public shelters is 1,000 and climbing," the agency said.

No news could be had from other islands in Grenada, which has about 100,000 residents and is best known for a 1983 U.S. invasion after American officials determined the airport was going to become a joint Cuban-Soviet base. Cuba insisted it was helping build the airport for civilian use only. Nineteen Americans died in the fighting.

Two private boats near Grenada have sent out distress signals, according to the U.S. Coast Guard (news - web sites) in San Juan, Puerto Rico. It had no details.

There were unconfirmed reports that storm damage allowed prisoners to escape Grenada's crumbling and overcrowded 17th century prison, a zinc-roofed stone edifice on a hilltop. The prison has held former Deputy Prime Minister Bernard Coard and 16 others convicted of killings in the 1983 coup.

Cobb said Ivan's heaviest rains likely will sweep the southern peninsula of Haiti, where deforestation and shacks make any excessive downpours deadly. Heavy rains in May triggered floods that killed 1,700 people and left 1,600 missing and presumed dead in Haiti and neighboring Dominican Republic.

Haiti posted a hurricane watch for its southwest peninsula Wednesday.

At 2 p.m. EDT, Ivan was centered about 105 miles northeast of Bonaire and was moving toward the west-northwest at nearly 16 mph. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 70 miles and tropical storm-force winds another 160 miles. The storm raised battering waves that the Hurricane Center warned could cause storm flooding of 3-5 feet and above normal tides with 5-7 inches of rain that could cause flash floods and mudslides.

Earlier Tuesday, Ivan damaged 221 homes in Barbados and left many residents without water and electricity, the Caribbean disaster agency said. It had reports of one death in Barbados, but could not confirm it was hurricane-related. Power was being restored Wednesday.

In neighboring St. Vincent and the Grenadines, more than 1,000 people were in shelters, 19 homes were destroyed by storm surges in coastal areas, and another 40 homes were damaged, the agency reported. It said the country remained without electricity Wednesday.

A half-dozen houses in St. Lucia and two schools in Tobago lost their roofs.

Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao were under a hurricane warning, a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remained posted for Colombia's Guajira peninsula and Venezuela's northern coast, and a tropical storm watch covered the southwest coast of the Dominican Republic.

Ivan became the fourth major hurricane of the season Sunday, coming hard on the heels of Hurricane Frances, which killed two people in the Bahamas and 14 in Florida and Georgia.

___

[Marcus Telcontar]

Good grief. They just get bigger or harder hitting.

[Charley]

I must break you

They're gonna sink that state before too long.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it might not hit Florida. On the weather channel the path looked like it might go farther to the west maybe as far west as Texas or Louisiana. I think we will have to wait and see what it does right now. Hopefully it doesn't live up to the nickname of the infamous czar of the same name.

[CMJ]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/082203W5.gif

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is a good picture, it looks like if it hits Florida it will be the gulf coast region other wise somewhere from Alabama to Louisana.

[CMJ]

It wouldn't have to verr much to hit the Keys, which is one of the doomsday scenario's Tropical Meterologists talk about. The Keys are very hard to evacuate, because there's only one way in or out. It's been said they'd need at least 48 hours notice to get everyone out safely.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that does make a lot of sense. Hopefully it misses them. Another doomsday scenerio is still there too, it still could veer more to the west and go towards New Orleans, hopefully that doesn't happen either.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Dear Florida,

How come your not taking the hint yet?

God.


Insane. it's fast moving, it's already beaten the hell out of the Bahamas, it's still gaining speed and could be a Cat 5 before it belts Cuba, which probably wont slow it down much. Not bad going for a month - smallish Cat 4, super huge Cat 2 and now a potential Cat 5. Wow

[CMJ]

Actually...it didn't hit the Bahamas, but close enough. ;)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Ooops.

:x

[Jedi Master Carr]

It hit Grenada and Barbados right? Could hit Jamaca still.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
It hit Grenada and Barbados right? Could hit Jamaca still.

Yes. It might also skim the ABC Islands, which haven't been hit in like 150 years.

[Shawn]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
Dear Florida,

How come you're not taking the hint yet?

God. Bring it on. :)

[Charley]

Originally posted by Shawn
Bring it on. :)

I'm disappointed. I was expecting something more Melvillian in the face of hopeless annihilation.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

How *large* is this one, say, compared to Frances that had hurricane strength winds up to 80 miles out from the core?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it is stronger than Frances but it is smaller.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Thanks, I knew it was stronger, just not sure how wide, I guess is the right term.

[imported_Marcus]

Originally posted by Shawn
Bring it on. :)

Hey, it's only going to be a Cat 5 in a few more hours. No problem I guess :)

[CMJ]

Excerpted from the 8pm advisory.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BONAIRE REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH A FEW HOURS AGO.

BTW: The general rule is if a Hurricane is Category IV or higher, it's going to be a smallish storm. If a Major hurricane weakens it generally explodes in size. Why do you ask? Think of a figure skater. When they spin fast they pull their in arms tight to their body. Their are gigantic major hurricaes, but typically the truly bad ones are small for this reason.

[imported_Marcus]

Originally posted by CMJ
Excerpted from the 8pm advisory.


BTW: The general rule is if a Hurricane is Category IV or higher, it's going to be a smallish storm. If a Major hurricane weakens it generally explodes in size. Why do you ask? Think of a figure skater. When they spin fast they pull their in arms tight to their body. Their are gigantic major hurricaes, but typically the truly bad ones are small for this reason.

Good thing you said gereal rule, Frances certinly proved to be an exception for a while :p

BTW, what were the damage assessments from Frances? Coverage basically dropped off for us here when the eye made landfall. It was only two weeks after Charley hit there was any note on how much damage it did and that was because of Frances beginning to make the news.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is interesting. I knew Andrew and Hugo were both small storms. Didn't know that was part of it.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Marcus
BTW, what were the damage assessments from Frances? Coverage basically dropped off for us here when the eye made landfall. It was only two weeks after Charley hit there was any note on how much damage it did and that was because of Frances beginning to make the news.

They're still getting a handle on both storms actually. Frances didn't hit any area as hard as Charley hit Punta Gorda(and the surrounding region), but it caused alot of "little" damage. Plus it spawned over 75 tornados in states like Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, etc.

BTW: The National Hurricane Center's new 5 day forcast. The Keys and central Florida are under the bullet.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/090253W5.gif

[Jedi Master Carr]

That was Charley's path, of course they were wrong about that. I think we still won't know until Friday for sure.

[CMJ]

Well, no kidding. Five day forecasts are usually pretty unreliable. But the NHC usually within a hundred miles or less with their 3 day. So look where it is at 3 days...it's prolly where he'll end up.

BTW - the latest satellites show Ivan as a near perfect buzz saw. I expect it to be a Categor V in the 2AM advisory(after they get a plane in there, the last one left about 12 hrs ago). It's listed as having 145MPH winds and a 938 millibar pressure at the moment but that's a frickin' joke. The thing is beautiful right now.

[imported_Marcus]

About the only thing they know for sure is that it's going to strengthen. I'd hate to think how powerful it'll be when it hits Jamaica. Just reading the damage reports from Granada were eye opening. Jamaica and Cuba are going to be hit really, really badly, that much is clear.

[CMJ]

The last really bad storm to hit Jamaica was Gilbert. I was gonna post about it's effects on the island, but Gilbert is such a famous storm, every site gives the things entire history. Here's the cliffs notes version for ya though

**********************

The hurricane season was more active in 1988 than in the two previous years. Gilbert, the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, formed near Barbados on September 10.

The hurricane devastated Jamaica, which until then had escaped a direct encounter with a hurricane for 31 years. Property damage totaled more than $1 billion, and 20 per cent of Jamaica's inhabitants were left homeless.

Gilbert then intensified. Its central barometric pressure dropped to the lowest point ever recorded in a hurricane--26.13 inches (663.7 millimeters) of mercury, or 888 millibars--and it produced sustained winds of 190 miles (306 kilometers) per hour.

The storm flattened parts of the island of Cancun, off the Yucatan Peninsula, and on September 16 Gilbert struck the Mexican coast about 130 miles (210 kilometers) south of Brownsville, Texas. Heavy rains produced by Gilbert in Monterrey, Mexico, swept four buses into a river, drowning as many as 190 people.

*****************

It had 3 landfalls...1 each as a Category III, IV, and V. Storm of the century, no doubt. The US really lucked out missing it.

It was also the storm that got me interested in hurricanes. I was 10 and was just awestruck. Oh - and today marks the 104 year anniversary of the great Galveston hurricane.

[imported_Marcus]

They are interesting things, to be sure. The 2 am advisory will be worth reading. I rather like reading the discussion link.

[CMJ]

Yeah, same here. Some of the meterologists have better discussions than others.

I'm also discussing Ivan on hurricane messageboards with other weather junkies. ;)

[imported_Marcus]

I liked the discussion of Frances which was basically a OMG WE GONNA DIE!!! type. Amusing, but at the time understandable.

Please link me to this messageboard :)

[CMJ]

There's several actually. Some I post on, some I lurk on. This is one of the best I'd say(and the one I'm currently visiting).

http://members.boardhost.com/hurricanecity/

I'm more of a lurker there. I post occassionally, but I'm more of a reader.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Thats cool. I feel sorry for Jamaica right now that island is going to get rocked. Same with Cuba.

[CMJ]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090543
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHEAST OF ARUBA IN THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 570 MILES... 915 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA AND BONAIRE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFTINDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SU STAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

***********************

I think this only marks the 11th Category V in the history of the Atlantic. Pretty historic.

[imported_Marcus]

0_0

That was hugely quick in gaining power. Not unexpected it's a Cat 5 now but to see it offically is chilling. Good grief, it probaly will get more powerful too.

[CMJ]

Especially the reports from the hurricane hunters. The pilots reported massive lightning in the eyewall and hail storms - both of which are extremely rare in tropical systems(especially at flight level). It's deepening so fast it's literally hell on earth in there.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v352/CMJ01/Ivan.jpg

[imported_Marcus]

And it's probably too late to get more than a handfull of people off Jamacia. That place is going to get king hit

[Charley]

Damn you Ivan. Stay away from Mobile Bay :mad

[CMJ]

That got me to thinking Charley....the last major storm to hit Alabma is Frederick(a Category III) in 1979 I believe. Yall are due. Not saying that Ivan will(because I really doubt it), but the Alabama coast is on the clock so to speak.

[Marcus Telcontar]

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IVAN
THIS MORNING RECENTLY REPORTED...AT 614 AM AST OR 1014Z...A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 154 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEY ALSO
REPORTED A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 920 MB...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN
MAY CONTAIN SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 160 MPH
INDICATED IN THE 5 AM AST ADVISORY. DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS ALSO
INDICATED WINDS OF NEAR 210 MPH AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 350 FEET
ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

Jamaica isnt going to exist if it's a direct strike. Has anyone else seen the damage reports from the islands it has hit? 90% of homes destroyed, even ones built to resist hurricanes. And that's when it was a Cat 4. It's gotten wildly more powerful in the last 6 hours.

[Charley]

Originally posted by CMJ
That got me to thinking Charley....the last major storm to hit Alabma is Frederick(a Category III) in 1979 I believe. Yall are due. Not saying that Ivan will(because I really doubt it), but the Alabama coast is on the clock so to speak.

Opal, actually.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Charley
Opal, actually.

Opal technically hit the Florida coast near Pennsacola. Alabama hasn't been directly hit in some time.

The 921 millibar pressure Ivan has is insane.

[Charley]

Originally posted by CMJ
Opal technically hit the Florida coast near Pennsacola. Alabama hasn't been directly hit in some time.

Tell that to Gulf Shores. That place looked like a bomb went off, and some areas looked that way almost a year after the fact.

Opal was still a hurricane as far north inland as Birmingham, IIRC. We got out of school for it.

[CMJ]

First summary I could find. I think it was written awhile ago, because they don't have the official damage estimate yet(which I believe ended up at 3.5 billion)

******************
When Hurricane Opal hit the Florida Panhandle in October 1995 - it was the first major hurricane to visit the region in 20 years. Although Hurricane Elena brushed the region in 1985, not since Eloise in 1975, had the Panhandle received a direct hit from a major hurricane. Although Opal was barely a major hurricane - in a weakening mode - when the eye crossed the coast, property damage was rather severe. Most of the new housing and commercial developments had yet to experience a storm of Opal's magnitude. The 8 to 14 foot storm surge did most of the damage, destroying hundreds of structures along the coast.

Hurricane Opal originated from an area of disturbed weather to the east of Cozumel, Mexico in late September. Passing over the Yucatan Peninsula, Opal reached tropical storm strength on September 30 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Opal reached hurricane intensity on October 2nd, and begin a slow northward motion in response to an upper level trough moving the through the central United States. A hurricane watch was issued on October 3 from Morgan City, Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida.

Late on October 3, as Opal headed toward the northeast Gulf coast, the hurricane strengthend at a frightening rate. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported the pressure was falling at the rate of 3 mb an hour. By early the next day (October 4), aircraft reported the pressure had fallen to 916 mb (27.05 in), and sustained winds had increased to 150 mph. Opal, now almost a category 5 hurricane, was located 250 miles southwest of Pensocola, Florida.

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

The eye of Hurricane Opal crossed the coast near Santa Rosa Island around 6:00 pm on October 4th. In a very fortunate turn of events - Opal weakened greatly in the final 8 hours before landfall, although still coming ashore at the lower end of a major hurricane. Sustained winds of 115 mph, with gusts to 140 mph, occurred across a short stretch of coastline between Destin and Panama City, Florida. Outside of the narrow stretch of coastline, winds of 80 to 100 mph were experienced. Hurlburt Air Field, near the eye of Opal, recorded 92 mph winds, gusting to 144 mph. Panama City recorded sustained winds of 65 mph with a peak gust of 86 mph.

The barometric pressure at landfall in Opal was 942 mb (27.83). This was recorded by aircraft just prior to landfall near Pensacola Beach. A pressure of 948 mb was measured by an automated weather station in Pensacola near I- 10. In terms of barometric pressure, Opal was deeper than Eloise in 1975 (955 mb), however the winds in Eloise were likely stronger.

The storm surge that occurred during Hurricane Opal, unlike the wind speeds, was constistent with a major hurricane. Almost all of the major damage in Opal was caused by the storm surge. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Mobile District), still-water mark elevations measured inside buildings and tidal gauge measurements, showed tides reached from 8 to 14 feet above mean sea level. The combined effect of surge and waves together however, reached 12 to 20 feet above sea level. The Panama City Beach Pier recorded peak tidal surge of 8.3 feet above mean tide, with wave run-up to 18.1 feet.

The storm surge during Opal along the Florida Panhandle rivaled that of Eloise in 1975. According to the State of Florida - Hurricane Opal destroyed more coastal structures in Florida than all other coastal storms over the past 20 years combined. About 200 miles of shoreline suffered damage, from Pensacola Beach to St. Joseph Spit in Gulf County. Florida DEP data indicate that 1,000 structures along the Gulf of Mexico incurred 50 percent or more damage as a result of Opal. Twenty-foot sand dunes were completely swept away, while the lower floors of many beach homes were filled with five feet of sand. Incredibly, a mile long strip of U.S. Highway 98 near Eglin Air Force Base, was destroyed, the ocean surge had scoured away the pavement and left 12 foot sand drifts across the the interstate highway (above). In the early morning light - U.S 98 looked more like a snow-covered highway in North Dakota, than a roadway through the subtropical Gulf states.

Although the coastal destruction that occurred along the Florida Panhandle was severe, some of the modern hurricane mitigation strategies proved their merit. Many new structures built to code on pilings, survived the worst of Opal, while other at-grade structures were swept away. The environmentally designed beachfront community of Seaside, Florida, provided a good example of the benefits of a hurricane resistant community. Designed by developer Robert Davis, Seaside, Florida is a model of proper and intelligent setbacks and land use management. Although a beach front community - Seaside homes are set well away from the ocean, as a result, the natural process of the dunes absorbing wave and surge impact worked - none of the homes in Seaside suffered any damage.

As Opal moved inland into southern Georgia, heavy rains and gusting winds knocked out power to over 2 million people in the southeastern United States. As Opal moved north and weakened over the southeast, falling branches killed several people in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. A tornado touched down from the spiral bands in Opal in Crestview, Florida killing a young woman.

For a tropical cyclone that was barely a major storm when it crossed the coast, Opal's toll was high. Nine people were killed in the United States, most from falling trees, while flash flooding and mud slides on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico killed 50. According to the Property Claim Services Division of The American Insurance Group (AIG-1997) the damage to insured property was $2.1 billion. Total property damage to date is estimated at $3.0 billion.
***********************

[CMJ]

Ivan has been fluctuating in strength today. Currently it's classified as a Cateory IV storm, but I think it's more to do with an eye replacement cycle. Jamaica is in some serious trouble.

BTW - this was on one of my hurricane messageboards. The guy talks about Florida exclusively, but it applies to anyone that lives along the Atlantic Seaboard or Gulf. Funny stuff.

*************

Hurricane Preparedness

Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points:

(1) There is no need to panic.

(2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one." Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

STEP 1.
Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days

STEP 2.
Put these supplies into your car.

STEP 3.
Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween. Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida. We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:

HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE:
If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built, and

(2) It is located in Nebraska.

Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss. Since

Hurricane Georges, I have had an estimated 27 different home-insurance companies. This week, I'm covered by the Bob and Big Stan Insurance Company, under a policy which states that, in addition to my premium, Bob and Big Stan are entitled, on demand, to my kidneys.

SHUTTERS:
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors, and -- if it's a major hurricane -- all the toilets. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:

Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap. The disadvantage is that, because you make them yourself, they will fall off.

Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.

Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.

Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.

Hurricane Proofing Your Property:
As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc.. You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.

EVACUATION ROUTE:
If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area).

The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.

HURRICANE SUPPLIES:
If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM.

In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:

*23 flashlights At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.

*Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!) A 55-gallon drum of underarm deodorant.

*A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)

*A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Camille; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)

*$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: It's great living in Paradise!

[Marcus Telcontar]

:lol :lol :lol

Seriously, what do you think the chances of Ivan still being at least cat 4 by the time it makes Florida?

[CMJ]

I'd say 70%. Despite what the forecast track is, I'm still not convinced it'll hit Florida. At least not the central Gulf Coast. I'm thinking maybe the Florida/Alabama border.

The Florida Keys are under a mandatory evacuation. I've even read they may force people off the islands.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It depends on how much it weakens after it goes through Jamaica and Cuba. Also it could veer off more to the west. And with that could give it time to stregthen some more. Still several possibilities for it.

[CMJ]

Jamaica won't diminish Ivan unless it stalls over it. The island is just too small. Cuba will take some punch away no doubt. But the Gulf has some of the warmest waters around.

BTW - if Ivan was a weaker storm I think the Bermuda High would steer him into the Gulf towards TX/LA. But he's so powerful he's able to control his own destiny to a degree.

It's kind of complicated weather stuff that I only halfway understand, so don't ask for an explantion. But Category V's tend to help create their own environments.

[Shawn]

Originally posted by CMJ
BTW - this was on one of my hurricane messageboards. The guy talks about Florida exclusively, but it applies to anyone that lives along the Atlantic Seaboard or Gulf. Funny stuff.What's sad is that this is pretty much dead-on accurate. Especially the bit about homeowner's insurance. They'll drop you the first time you actually make a claim. And yes, people will actually wait until a few hours before we're going to be hit to rush out to the supermarket and try to find supplies. It's pretty funny to watch, especially since some places try to jack up the prices. Some guy was just fined for price gouging after he was caught selling Gatorade at $30 for a 12 bottle case.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Shawn
What's sad is that this is pretty much dead-on accurate. Especially the bit about homeowner's insurance. They'll drop you the first time you actually make a claim. And yes, people will actually wait until a few hours before we're going to be hit to rush out to the supermarket and try to find supplies. It's pretty funny to watch, especially since some places try to jack up the prices. Some guy was just fined for price gouging after he was caught selling Gatorade at $30 for a 12 bottle case.

Great comedy always has it's basis in reality. ;)

[Marcus Telcontar]

That is true.

Although there's certainly nothing funny about the dead on hit Jamacia is about to get. Certainly fell off in power in the last 24hours... thankfully. Still, I cant imagine anyone thinking "Oh thank God, it's only got 140 mph sustained, not 160".

[CMJ]

True, still powerful as hell. I wouldn't be surprised it it started to ramp up a bit. The eye wall replacement cycle look to have been competed, as convection is starting to re-fire up again. I'm not sure it'll regain Category V status, but it might get close before Jamaica. It still has about 12 hours to do so.

On the other hand, once it crosses Jamaica and the Caymans, I'm thinking Category III at worst for Florida. The Gulf has some upper level wind currects that will probably shear Ivan.

[CMJ]

Ivan's pressure is starting to drop like a rock...just as it nears Jamaica. This could be very, very bad.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

So is it likely to turn into a Cat V again?

[CMJ]

Well, that's hard to say. Generally a pressure of 922mb or lower will be a Category V. Ivan's rose to 939 last night, but has fallen down to 927 as of about half an hour ago. So it's RAPIDLY gaining strength as it nears Jamaica.

I'm sure the winds are stronger than 140mph right now. Probably approaching 150 I'd guess.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Yikes. Poor Jamaica. :(

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
Yikes. Poor Jamaica. :(

Tell me about it. That's sustained by the way. ;) I expect a storm surge of 18 feet or more, so if they've built alot of stuff near the ocean it's gonna end up in the sea.

[Marcus Telcontar]

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/09/11/1094789718008.html?oneclick=true

It's already bad and Ivan hasnt got there yet.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I'm not willing to register to read that. Care to quote? :)

[CMJ]

Why do you link to something I have to register for? ;)

Make everything hard why don't ya. :lol

[Marcus Telcontar]

?!?!?!?

edit : Oh FFS, it's become a register article 10 minutes ago. That sucks.

tl;dr version - Waves 7 meters hit coast, lots of people in deep poo

[CMJ]

Good lord, I was right.

***********************
Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 34a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004


...Extremely dangerous Ivan strengthens as it approaches Jamaica...a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of Youth...and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 76.2 west or about 80 miles... 130 km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 11 mph...18 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion is expected to bring the core of Ivan to near or over Jamaica tonight or early Saturday and over the Cayman Islands late Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours...and it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5 status as it passes Jamaica.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter plane was 926 mb...27.34 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...possibly causing life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...17.0 N... 76.2 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 11 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 926 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Marcus Telcontar]

!!!!!!!!!

Well, with the speed of it's strengthening, it's certain to be Cat five in another few hours. Not good

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah it looks bad for Jamaica :(

[CMJ]

I'm not able to get to get the broadcast - but some folks on the Hurricane City messageboard are posting stuff they're hearing from an online Jamaican radio station. I'm not sure how much can be verified...but it's absolutely chilling so far. It almost makes me wanna cry.

Here's some of the highlights. Wires are beginning to crackle..2 story high waves washing on shore already....homes washing out to sea with people in them...roof blew off a shelter with over 600 people inside...

[Shawn]

I don't know about Jamaica. But the hurricane shelters here are deplorable. While homes have to meet certain hurricane safety standards, the shelters are exempt from this (???). So, if you've got shutters on your windows and concrete walls (which most homes do), you're a good deal safer just staying at home.

Most of the destruction and death comes from people living in poorly built homes that are essentially just 2x4s and plywood. During Hurricane Andrew, in the house I used to live in, we lost... a shingle. Yeah, that was pretty much it.

I worry more about the looters and the possibility of losing running water than the hurricane itself.

[CMJ]

Even most "hurricane proof" structures can't withstand a Cat V. Obviously there are exceptions. No structure on the beach is likely to withstand a 20 foot stormsurge though.

[Shawn]

Yes, but the shelters are below standards. That makes them a worse than average place to stay.

[CMJ]

No argument here. I'm not sure anywhere is safe in Jamaica though. The worst is still about an hour away.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v352/CMJ01/Ivan2.jpg

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
No argument here. I'm not sure anywhere is safe in Jamaica though. The worst is still about an hour away.

The next advisory will I guess tell us what that worst will be.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
The next advisory will I guess tell us what that worst will be.

Yeah, the pic I just posted is about 20 minutes ago. Gettin' awfully close now. Thankfully it might just skim the island and not cross it length wise.

BTW: The Weather Channel JUST said winds are now clocked at 155 sustained. It's for all practical purposes a Cat V.

[CMJ]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110234
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN NEARING JAMAICA...COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE ON FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE EYE OF IVANN NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE EYE WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS BEFORE THE EYE REACHES JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS INDICATE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER LARGE PARTS OF JAMAICA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 76.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Marcus Telcontar]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR

So, with the fact it's strengthening rapidily and the barometer is dropping through the floor, it will be a Cat 5 if not now, then very shortly.

Ypu cant help but to think that this is goign to result in the worst possible outcome for Jamacia.

[CMJ]

About the only positive I can see is...at least it won't make landfall on Kingston. Other than that, I agree. I have a gut feeling Jamaica will resemble Grenada - but worse.

[Marcus Telcontar]

It'll be close enough that it wont make a real difference. I cant help feeling Ivan related death toll will go into the hundreds and with Cuba and a USA land fall to go, the damage is going to rival Andrew. I wish I could be positive on this, but it's clear it's only going to be extreme luck the worst doesnt occur.

About the only positive I can find is that it surely cant remain a Cat V before it makes USA landfall... I hope.

[CMJ]

I'd be shocked if there are under a hundred deaths on Jamaica. Grenada's death toll has been rising all week as they find folks. Cuba shouldn't lose too many, because they are evacuating big time(at times having a communist dictatorship helps) - at gun point even.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Just reading that forum you linked before - some of the reports on what the Opposition person said is insane. How the hell can you play down a Cat 5???????

[CMJ]

Yeah I know. Gotta love politics right? ;)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
Yeah I know. Gotta love politics right? ;)

Heh. Yeah :)

Lets hope that people had the good sense to get out of the way, desipte what he said. It worries me reports some wanted to stay in their homes to stop looters - In the next hour I suspect Ivan will take care of the looters.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
n the next hour I suspect Ivan will take care of the looters.

I don't mean to sound callous, but they'll get what's coming to them.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
I don't mean to sound callous, but they'll get what's coming to them.

When it comes to people like that, be as callous as you want. It's hard to get anything even approaching sympathy for those that prey of such disasters.

[CMJ]

It looks like Ivan will pass just south of Jamaica as it's jogged west over the last couple of satellite frames. I'm sure they're still getting terrible weather, but they may have just gotten spared.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah they deserve that kind of punishment, IMO. Trying to steal stuff in a hurricane you are destined for trouble.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
It looks like Ivan will pass just south of Jamaica as it's jogged west over the last couple of satellite frames. I'm sure they're still getting terrible weather, but they may have just gotten spared.

Still too close to make a real difference. If anything, it may be worse. Who knows as yet.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
Still too close to make a real difference. If anything, it may be worse. Who knows as yet.

Looking at the wind field, the worst winds appear to be on shore. Though I read 130mph winds have been felt.

[CMJ]

EDIT - Info was incorrect thank goodness. Still an unbelieveably bad storm.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Oh good, I was worried. :eek

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
EDIT - Info was incorrect thank goodness. Still an unbelieveably bad storm.

That 905 mb hoax? who knows what it's really doing right now

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
That 905 mb hoax? who knows what it's really doing right now

Yeah, when I saw that 905mb report, my eyes almost fell out of my sockets. :p

[CMJ]

Posted on a Carribean messageboard. How this person has power, I have no clue. Sounds like they don't know the worst missed them. As it is...sounds terrifying.

**********************

Somehow we survived and lived through a night of extreme terror. We went through a day and night of unimaginable fury of nature, words fail me to describe the experience. The sounds were as if a jumbo jet takes of and passes 10 m above your roof. Because of the slowing forward moving of Ivan we were pounded at 150 miles p.h. for many, many hours more than predicted last night.

Damage is unbelievable.

Shelters are filled with thousands of people, they are running out of food and the radio stations appeal to citizens as soon as the storm has passed to donate food to the shelters. That will not be before this evening.

Somehow phone lines and internet systems have held up.

"Big up" C&W of Jamaica and Digicel. They can certainly advertise their equipment as hurricane safe.

Right now we don't know if there were casualties as the entire island is inundated, all roads are blocked, bridges have come down, big areas are flooded and mud slides are covering large areas.

Some shelters could not stand up to the winds and people had to be relocated in the height of the storm. How that was done I don't know as you cannot walk in 150 miles of storm.

Hospitals were damaged and patients had to be relocated in Mobay Cornwall and Kingston KPH and Jubilee.

The Prime Minister declared Jamaica a national disaster and implemented Public Emergency, restricting freedom of movement and assembly. This is done to protect the citizens from looting. We are thankful for that as we feel a lot safer this way.

Looting is going on right now but the police is very, very vigilant and adopts a no nonsense approach, we are thankful for that.

In the height of the storm several heavily armed gangs of criminals were engaging the security forces in gun battles in Kingston, endangering the security forces' lives.

The security forces along with the Government agencies did a magnificent job.

Some areas are simply flattened, the Community of Windsor has not one roof left, including the church which served as a shelter, people have nowhere to go and the winds and rain are pounding on. Almantown in Kingston is flat.

The roads all over the island are inundated, bridges destroyed. Communities cannot be reached. Banana plantations are flat, for that matter our "food basket" in general is destroyed.

Our hearts go out to Cayman and Florida.

Please consider Ivan as the most dangerous storm you can imagine.

Double check your preparations, you will need it. One word of advice: when people start to feel the terror and fear for their lives as we have last night, psychology comes into play. Hold the children tight as they may be scared beyond belief. Also tempers can flare out of fear, prayers helped us to cope and stay half way calm and stay together as a group.

By tomorrow we will know more about the damage but I fear it will resemble Grenada.

[CMJ]

The Caymans are in trouble.

000
WTNT61 KNHC 111931
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB AND THE ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 165 MPH...270 KM/HR. THESE NEW VALUES OR FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[CMJ]

Well, w e have good news and bad news. Good news, it's probably gonna miss the Cayman Isands. Bad news, the pressure has dropped again...to 913mb.

To put that into perspective...Andrew's pressure at landfall was 922mb. The mighty Camille's pressure was 909mb. Ivan is becoming historic.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow, Cuba is in for it. Could hitting Cuba weaken it? Just wondering.

[CMJ]

I'm sure it'll weaken it a little bit. Probably to mid Category IV status. The latest measurement from the hurricane hunters....912mb. The thing is dropping like a frikkin' rock.

The system is jogging more to the west than expected. I now think Mobile Bay will be the landfall area, but no one knows at this point. Ivan is confounding all of us.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah we will have to wait and see it will be a bad storm regardless.

[CMJ]

Just ask the folks in Grenada and Jamaica about it. ;)

I believe it's now the 6th most intense Hurricane in recorded history.

[Jedi Master Carr]

yeah it is already the worst storm this year just from the damage it did in Jamaica and Grenada alone.

[CMJ]

Well...Charley did a ton if you remember. I'd call it a tossup at this point. After the next landfall there will be no question though.

The latest Hurricane Hunter plane just found a pressure of 910mb in the eye. UNREAL.

Different...but awesome satellite perspective.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v352/CMJ01/IvanSatellite.jpg

[Jedi Master Carr]

Impressive view.

[CMJ]

Yeah no kidding....it might become my new desktop. ;)

The storm seems to be jogging northwest, but the satellites have set for 3 hours, so no new images till about midnight Pacfic time. If the NW motion continues - Grand Cayman could be hit straight on. The highest elevation on the island is 43 feet. The projected storm surge is 20+.

Can you say ugly?

[Jedi Master Carr]

yeah I hope everybody got off that island. I know I sure would.

[CMJ]

Looks like Grand Cayman may have been spared landfall - as Ivan is jogging west just as it nears them. Another close call, just like Jamaica.

[Master Yoghurt]

I wonder if all these close calls will just make the hurricane stronger. Is it not when passing over landmass hurricanes gets weaker? Looking at the projected travel path, it looks like a fairly long and generally unobstructed path to the US coast. I guess the exception is the western tip Cuba, but still...

[CMJ]

It'd be hard for it to get much stronger than it is now. ;)

Honestly...even if it had hit Jamaica and Grand Cayman head on it would have been a hiccup. Those are tiny islands(especially the Caymans).

The storm is expected to weaken a tad when it gets into the Gulf, because of a shearing flow in the upper atmosphere. Who the heck really knows at this point though...Ivan is making it's own rules.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, youre probably right, its unlikely to grow much stronger. But on the other hand, maybe it wont fade out in strength like the others did, and keeps category V. Even as category IV I suppose it could do some tremendous damage.

[CMJ]

No doubt about that. Cat IV's can be destructive as hell. Really any tropical system can be. Tropical Storm Allison caused like 2 Billion dollars in damage several years ago when it flooded out southern Texas.

On the last satellite image Ivan moved north. The turn to the NW might be starting, or it could just be an other wobble. If it moves due north for very long GC may be hit dead on afterall. o_O

[CMJ]

The eye didn't pass over GC, but I think they got the eye wall. This is the first report I've seen out of there...waiting for more(and some images would be nice). No one is reported dead, but that's sure to change. All I can say is holy crap!

*****************************

By Gretchen Allen

Associated Press Correspondent



HOUSTON (AP) – Reports out of Grand Cayman, which has been furiously pummeled by category 4 Hurricane Ivan overnight and throughout Sunday morning, via internet and telephone, reveal a picture of grim devastation.

So far, Ivan has caused the deaths of some 56 people in the Caribbean on its deadly rampage from the Lesser Antilles, across Grenada, on to Jamaica and now Cayman.

Yesterday the Governor of the Cayman Islands, Mr. Bruce Dinwiddy, declared a State of Emergency.

At 2 p.m. Sunday, the Weather Channel reported that the island had been lashed by winds in excess of 200 mph.

Ivan was 60 miles west of Grand Cayman, traveling to the west at 10 mph, according to a National Hurricane Center Advisory.

There are unconfirmed reports that part of the capital, George Town, is “gone”, that roofs are blowing around in the streets of George Town, and that the hospital has been badly damaged, or is possibly also “gone”.

Two British ships are reported to be 250 miles behind Ivan, waiting to come into port to come to Cayman’s aid. The Cayman Islands are a British Overseas Territory (colony).

Vehicles in flood-prone areas have are said to have “just disappeared”.

There is two feet of water at Owen Roberts International Airport.

Hurricane shelters on island are full to capacity.

An estimated 80 percent of the roof of Queensgate House, a waterfront commercial office building on the south side of the capital overlooking the harbour, has been blown off.

“It’s as bad as it can possibly get,” Justin Uzzell, 35, told the Associated Press by telephone about noon Houston time on Sunday, also noon Cayman time (Houston is on Daylight Savings Time, Cayman is not) from his fifth-floor refuge in the Citrus Grove Building downtown. “It’s a horizontal blizzard,” he described, saying he could see no further than the parking lot of the adjacent building. “The air is just foam. It’s a white wall. We’re being buffeted badly”.

At the Marriott Resort on Cayman’s famed Seven Mile Beach, its prime tourism product, windows were blown out of the 300+ room facility, and the cars in the parking lot had water up to their rooftops. Children of guests were said to be “going bonkers” from being “cooped up”.

“A catastrophe”, was how one landlord described the residential area of Crewe Road in George Town.

The island has been without electricity since Saturday evening and phone service is often impossible. Cell phone batteries are wearing down or are spent.

Canal-front developments, such as Governor’s Harbour and Snug Harbour, are flooded.

The Hyatt Britannia Resort’s canal which flows into the North Sound has overflowed due to the storm surge, and the Britannia Villas are flooded inside, as is the golf course. Cars there are under water.

At 12:50 p.m. “winds are fiercer than ever”, reported one Cayman resident on the website stormcarib.com, which featured many posting from people seeking information on their loved ones.

Here in Houston, some 125 evacuees who arrived from Grand Cayman Friday afternoon on a special charter flight hired by Cayman-based Dart Management Ltd. to bring its employee resources to safety, were worried and frustrated at not being able to get through by cell phone, hearing “all circuits are currently busy”. They continue to try to reach friends and relatives in their storm-tossed country.

Although the eye of the storm is now 60 miles southwest of the coast of Grand Cayman, Ivan’s hurricane-force winds (155 mph, with gusts to 190 mph) extend out 90 miles from the storm’s center, and it is presently moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 120 miles. That means Grand Cayman is in for hours more of continued bashing.

The three Cayman Islands – Cayman Brac, Little Cayman, and Grand Cayman, 90 miles to the southeast of the Sister Islands – are home to about 45,000 people with well over 90 percent of them residing in Grand Cayman.

Flood waters were threatening the integrity of the Allista Towers Building in George Town.

There were unconfirmed reports that the roof had blown off the Kirk Servistar Home Center on Eastern Avenue.

Cars in the area of Cayman’s airport are said to have “floated off down the road”.

There were reports of 135-mile-an-hour winds out of the northeast over the last two hours.

Winds were so strong around noon on Saturday that “trees were bending down to the ground” along the West Bay Road, the island’s main road and tourist strip which runs parallel to Seven Mile Beach.

There is no radio service, leaving residents in the dark as to when and where the storm is going.

At midday people who sought shelter in the Walkers Building in the center of town were said to be okay.

Communiques from the Citrus Grove Building also said people seeking shelter there were safe.

The Huntlaw Building in the same area had its roof torn off around 8 a.m.

If Hurricane Ivan, which is reported to be developing a concentric (second) eye wall, winds increase by just one mile an hour, it will again be classed as a category 5 storm.

It is kicking up waves 15 – 25 feet, or two stories high. Cayman is experiencing 8 – 12-inches of rain.

According to the Weather Channel, Hurricane Ivan is the sixth strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin in recorded history.

It is taking a track similar to that of Hurricanes Charley and Gilbert, which visited Cayman in 1988, and has been called the “son of Gilbert”.

At noon Cayman time, Ivan’s coordinates were 19 N., 81.5 W., with wind gusts to 190mph.

“The wind is howling and there are no leaves left on any of the trees,” Perry Garrison told his wife, Shruty, in Houston by phone from Cayman.

[CMJ]

BTW - Ivan is a Cat V once again. The forecast track keeps shifting. Basically, no one knows what the hell he's going to do.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah it keeps going farther and farther west. It look likes its on track for Panama City or Mobile. Of course if it keeps going west it could head for Louisiana or Miss for all we know.

[CMJ]

All the models are saying different things right now. Basically the NHC is averaging them together.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah it is looking very unpredicatable.

[CMJ]

I'm gonna guess it's gonna go more west...graze the Yucatan...and then decide where he wants to go. The current track calls for him to split the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Could it move towards New Orleans now? It looks like it keeps moving more that way to me. I know that is the big doomsday scenerio among hurricanes.

[Charley]

The simulations I'm seeing right now show Ivan rolling right through Gulf Shores, Montgomery, and possibly Birmingham. Fun stuff.

[JMK]

I definetly had a horseshoe up where the sun don't shine when I made my visit to Panama City. Right smack in the middle of 2 brutal hurricanes.

[Charley]

Originally posted by JMK
I definetly had a horseshoe up where the sun don't shine when I made my visit to Panama City. Right smack in the middle of 2 brutal hurricanes.

Why would somebody visit Panama City if they aren't a college student on spring break? Its a gross beach, on the whole. Good party scene, but thats about it.

[CMJ]

I've seen simulations that say everything from a direct hit on Tampa to one on New Orleans. Ivan has started a more northwesterly movement - so the eastern end of that zone is looking more likely.

As one of the guys at Hurricane City eloquently said - the NHC and the rest of us are throwing so many coins in the air we're gonna have to steal kids piggybanks to get more. :p

[CMJ]

I read the extreme end of Cuba was sparsley populated. It's a good thing, because the eyewall is passing right over it currently. Whatever there is gonna be GONE. Havana is 100 miles away and still getting hurricane force winds, but I wouldn't think it would be too bad.

We'll see tommorrow.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It looks more like somewhere from Mobile to New Orleans right now. I am sure people in New Orleans are holding their breaths. A hurricane there would be very bad.

[Charley]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
It looks more like somewhere from Mobile to New Orleans right now. I am sure people in New Orleans are holding their breaths. A hurricane there would be very bad.

The Lion's share of what I've seen is Mobile to PC. This SOB is coming right for me.

[Adrienne Caledonia]

Don't feel too bad Charley, I live in Tampa. Maybe I should have bought a boat instead of a car. :)

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
It looks more like somewhere from Mobile to New Orleans right now. I am sure people in New Orleans are holding their breaths. A hurricane there would be very bad.

I'd say NO should be okay...and Tampa Bay too. The area of most concern is say...Gulfport, Mississippi to Pennsacola FL.

[Adrienne Caledonia]

Oh, that's good to hear. :)

[CMJ]

Should - but it's no guarantee. The models aren't close to Tampa anymore though.

[Charley]

The bean counters predict Ivan will still be a Cat II when it rolls on top of Birmingham. Way too early to say but if so, this is going to be one hell of a ride. I may actually have to board up windows...in the middle of Alabama.

This is insane.

[CMJ]

It really depends how fast it's moving Charley. If it's really slow moving it could spend most of it's energy before it gets to you. If that's the case I'd worry about flooding though.

[Charley]

Originally posted by CMJ
It really depends how fast it's moving Charley. If it's really slow moving it could spend most of it's energy before it gets to you. If that's the case I'd worry about flooding though.

Flooding doesn't worry me, as I live in the Appalachian foothills :)

Its crazy wind and tornados that do concern me.

[CMJ]

If Ivan gets at all close to you...then tornados are a very real possibility. Frances spawned over 90 I believe. Of course that was the 2nd most ever, but still. ;)

[Charley]

Well, our house is built halfway into the side of a hill, so I've got adequate "Duck & Cover" space. Just kinda hoping to have a roof over my head when it blows through.

[Adrienne Caledonia]

I didn't realize you were in Alabama, Charley. Hopefully everything will be okay up there. Do you guys typically get a lot of tornados during these kinds of storms?

[Charley]

Originally posted by Galadriel
I didn't realize you were in Alabama, Charley. Hopefully everything will be okay up there. Do you guys typically get a lot of tornados during these kinds of storms?

We don't normally get hurricanes this far north. Last one that was still a 'cane was Opal back in 1995. Andrew was a TS when it rolled over us.

We get tornadoes here fairly regularly in either December or March.

[Adrienne Caledonia]

That's scary. I can deal with the hurricanes but tornados really creep me out. After Frances and all of the tornado warnings I had nightmares for almost a week.

At least you live in a house though. Probably a lot more stable than my apartment would be.

[Charley]

There's a bedroom downstairs that is practically inside the hill. It can withstand a lot of stuff. If need be, I can survive there.

[Adrienne Caledonia]

Sounds like it's nice and safe, just make sure to have plenty of water and stuff. I'm having trouble picturing your house though. All I can think of is the Shire and all those tiny little homes built into hills.

[Marcus Telcontar]

According to latest estimates, it looks like Alabama is going to get Ivan dead square and most likely, at Cat 4. Grenada, Jamacia, Grand Cayman, Cuba..... wow, Ivan's really king hit quite a few places.

BTW CMJ, have many other hurricanes maintained this strength for as long? Ivan seems to have Cat 4 or 5 for well over a week.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Looks more like Miss. to me but it could go anywhere I think from Lousiana to Alabama at this point.

[Charley]

My mom was going to go to Gulf Shores for vacation on Friday. OOPS :)

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
BTW CMJ, have many other hurricanes maintained this strength for as long? Ivan seems to have Cat 4 or 5 for well over a week.

Honestly, I can't think of any. Ivan is resilient as hell, I'll give him that much.

[Morgan Evanar]

If Ivan hits New Orleans I don't think there will be anything left of the Big Easy.

[CMJ]

New Orleans is basically the worst case scenario period. Since the city is below sea level in the first place, it's very easy to flood the Big Easy(even with all the levies). A Surge of 12-18 feet which Ivan could produce would swamp the city.

Oh...and there's no way they can evacuate everyone out in time. It takes 72 hours thereabouts, and the mandatory evacuation began today.

[Jedi Master Carr]

How likely is it now that it will hit New Orleans?? CNN said between Biloxi and Mobile before but I guess there is still an outside chance it could move more west.

[CMJ]

A direct hit in New Orleans...I'd say 20% or less. The Mobile, Biloxi area is far more likely for landfall.

[CMJ]

After a slight weakening trend over about 6-8 hours this morning, Ivan looks to be ramping up. The outflow is looking impressive again(and symetrical). Looks like shear has either lessened or had little effect. The pressure started dropping again.

This might come into shore at 145mph or more. Yikes!

[General Tohmahawk]

Originally posted by CMJ
A direct hit in New Orleans...I'd say 20% or less. The Mobile, Biloxi area is far more likely for landfall.

Ivan's big enough that a direct hit isnt needed.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Ivan seems to be quite a deal bigger than most hurricanes now?

[Charley]

At that power, direct hits don't matter, true. Its going to lay a world of hurt over a fairly wide range.

[General Tohmahawk]

Originally posted by Charley
At that power, direct hits don't matter, true. Its going to lay a world of hurt over a fairly wide range.


Good luck mate. It'll be an Act of God to stop Ivan now from arriving on your doorstep.

[CMJ]

Ivan has grown in size over the last several days. Basically every time he loses strength he gets a bit bigger, but when he ratchets up he doesn't lose any size.

I'm not sure Ivan is much bigger than the average storm though. I know he's no Gilbert(that circulation took up nearly the entire Gulf of Mexico).

[CMJ]

Originally posted by General Tohmahawk
Good luck mate. It'll be an Act of God to stop Ivan now from arriving on your doorstep.

Not to wish this guy on anyone...but it'd be better if Alabama or Mississppi got hit. The latest computer models show a direct hit on New Orleans would cause the city to be under 18 feet of water. Yeah, the whole frickin city.

Radio out of NO are saying that if you don't leave now you will be stuck. Oh yeah, traffic is not moving. There are thousands with no way out (poor people who dont own cars)

There is NO WAY they will be able to evacuate like they did in Florida, or anywhere else. This is the doomsday scenario tropical meterologists have been warning us about for years.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree with you, it be better if it hits Mobile or Biloxi than New Orleans. It would be one of the worst disasters ever.

[CMJ]

One of these days New Orleans will get hit. In fact, it's overdue. Let's just hope it's not by a Category IV.

[General Tohmahawk]

Originally posted by CMJ
One of these days New Orleans will get hit. In fact, it's overdue. Let's just hope it's not by a Category IV.

If I have the info right, Ivan hasnt turned as far north as expected and is still tracking a bit west. Crazy Ivan going east of Mobile is probably the best that could happen, but can you see that happening now? Slightly west of Mobile and the storm surge will be bottled up in that bay with nowhere to go, much like what happens to the Bay of Bengal.

I also wonder if the worst case is Ivan going between New Orleans and mobile? Comment CMJ?

[Charley]

No matter what happens, Dauphin Island is going to get blasted to bits.

[CMJ]

If Ivan went between NO and Mobile - NO wouldn't be as affected, since they'd be getting mostly offshore winds - decreasing surge potential.

The track from most of the models calls for a lurch back east right before landfall. A slow curve...kind of a bell shape I guess. If that happens, just because it's west of a location a few hours before landfall doesn't mean you're safe - you could still get the eye. If the turn towards the east occurs after landfall, New Orleans won't exist.

[General Tohmahawk]

Originally posted by CMJ
If Ivan went between NO and Mobile - NO wouldn't be as affected, since they'd be getting mostly offshore winds - decreasing surge potential.

The track from most of the models calls for a lurch back east right before landfall. A slow curve...kind of a bell shape I guess. If that happens, just because it's west of a location a few hours before landfall doesn't mean you're safe - you could still get the eye. If the turn towards the east occurs after landfall, New Orleans won't exist.



I'm afraid with Ivan's latest jog west, the models might not stand. You said it before, storm's like this have a mind of their own. It's pickign up forward velocity, it's steering NNW, it's settign itself up to back to a Cat 5 and it's looking like its going for New Orleans. Iknw that's all might be's but frankly if I was around NO, I'd be getting out. Say 24 hours on this track and it's just not going to matter when / if a turn occurs.

[CMJ]

I can't believe how little shear has affected this storm. It's been experiencing hostile winds at the upper levels for 2 days now and has only slightly weakened. Now the shearing mechanism has all but ended. It's like Ivan sucked it dry.

The same thing goes for the dry air. The water vapor loops all showed Ivan was entering an area where dry air could get entrained in the system, thus weakening it. Ivan basically swallowed it up and was unaffected. It's unreal actually. This is the kind of stuff that greatly diminished Frances - and is having almost a nil affect on Ivan.

I'm impressed as hell with this guy. I don't mean to make it sound like I'm rooting for him, because I'm scared %^&!*%% for the folks in his path - but the admiration is there.

[General Tohmahawk]

So your also saying Ivan has the potential to be named alongside Andrew and Camille and already is going to get the name retired?

edit : Good luck Charley. Looks like Ivan's going to get you dead square. Only good news of Ivan the Terrible is it'll mainly miss NO unless God Himself turns this storm. Which I doubt, this one looks intended to get Mobile absolutly dead on.

[Charley]

Come & get me! I'm one trip to wally world away from having all the amenities, including D batteries, asagio cheese bagels, and cold beer. You'll never take me alive, storm!

[General Tohmahawk]

You'll never take me alive, storm!

Dear Charley,

Happy to oblige

Ivan

[Charley]

Originally posted by General Tohmahawk
Dear Charley,

Happy to oblige

Ivan

lol

I'm probably one of the better-off people over here. My house is practically halfway sunk into the side of a hill, so even if a funnel drops directly, I've got places to duck and cover with relative security.

I'll make it out with my skin. Whether I have a house, truck, bag o' stuff, or a place of employment? That's the tricky one.

[General Tohmahawk]

Yeah, well you, white Ninja and S'il stay safe, you hear? No bravery. Lock the cats somewhere safe and let us know your okay when Ivan's gone.

[Charley]

Originally posted by General Tohmahawk
Yeah, well you, white Ninja and S'il stay safe, you hear? No bravery. Lock the cats somewhere safe and let us know your okay when Ivan's gone.

No problem there. I'll be giving s'Il a call in about 30 minutes, so I'll make sure T-town is on lockdown.

It won't really start hitting the fan until late tonight. I've got time.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Yeah, but every time before when the forecasters thought Ivan was going to hit land, he jogged west. I'm still a little concerned about NO...

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah I don't think its 100% safe yet. They say it's going to go straight north but the direction could change any time before it hits land.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by General Tohmahawk
So your also saying Ivan has the potential to be named alongside Andrew and Camille and already is going to get the name retired?


Well...not sure about a Camille or Andrew. But this thing will have it's name retired just for the rampage in the Carribean.

Pressure came up about 6mbs from last night and windspeed came down a touch. We'll see if this is a trend, or a slight modification. Don't be fooled though, Ivan's pressure is 940mb which is still a helluva low pressure. Charley came ashore at 941. Ivan is at least a third larger than Charley was.

Buoy's out in the Gulf have been recording waves of 30 feet or more consistently. Even if he continues to weaken, he might come ashore with a Cat IV type of surge, just because he was so strong for so long.

There are going to several retired names this season. It's like the '95 season or something.

[General Tohmahawk]

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

And proptly gone back down. 6 points in three hours.

[Dan the Man]

It's cloudy and fairly windy outside. Been that way since morning.

From here on out, its only going to get worse.

[CMJ]

To give you guys an idea...Hugo's pressure was 934mb. So as of the last recon flight - Ivan is more intense than Hugo.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is bad.

[Dan the Man]

Wind's whipping up fairly strong right now.

[CMJ]

Latest recon flight showed pressure down to 931mb. They still are only reporting 135mph winds, which is insane. With that kind of pressure expect 145+. Maybe the winds haven't caught up to the pressure drop yet - or they don't want to cause a panic.

Buoys have been reporting seas of 45ft+ for hours now.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

:eek good grief

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
:eek good grief

Pretty much. Hurricanes are the most destructive force nature can conjure up. The average storm produces enough energy in one day to power up the entire United States for one year.

[General Tohmahawk]

Originally posted by CMJ
Pretty much. Hurricanes are the most destructive force nature can conjure up. The average storm produces enough energy in one day to power up the entire United States for one year.

I'll dispute they are the most destructive - eathquakes and volconos arent exactly joy times either :p

Pressure and winds of Ivan seem to be steady now. That's it, it'll be a Cat 4 when it hits the coast in another couple of hours.

[Sanis Prent]

Its gotten pretty quiet here. The wind's gentled down to a sedate breeze at best. No rain yet.

[CMJ]

Sorry about no statistical updates. Been watching it roll onshore via TWC, CNN, MSNBC, and FOX. ;)

[General Tohmahawk]

AT 11 PM CDT....0400Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

No more guessing anymore - The edges of Ivan have touched down.

some of the pictures I've seen on the Net make me gald I'm nowhere near the place.

[Taataani Meorrrei]

It's still calm as a hindu cow up here. Zero rain. No wind. Not even an errant fart on the breeze.

Scary when you realize what kind of boiling hell I'm going to eat for breakfast when this bastard rolls north.

[CMJ]

With all due respect to Charley(which was a helluva storm), I think Ivan will be the hurricane everyone remembers from 2004.

[General Tohmahawk]

Originally posted by CMJ
With all due respect to Charley - which was a helluva storm - I think Ivan will be the hurricane everyone remembers from 2004.

Have a look at the all time most dmaging table by dollar worth - then put Charley and Frances in there. What odds that you have two of the five most dollar damaging hurricanes in a week / 10 days, then followed up by something even bigger?

I personally think they'll be more remembering the year than just one Hurricane. Ivan's gonna have to do something incredible to stand out. The worrying thought is, it probably will.

[CMJ]

I'm not sure Frances will be remembered as strongly except for the folks most immediately impacted. Charley's total damage I think will be in the top 5 ever(and top 10 inflation adjusted I think). I have the sinking feeling this might produce more damage than Hugo - which is #2 all-time moneywise.

[General Tohmahawk]

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

Again, stay safe AL people. from what I've seen, it's already dealing out a world of hurt. God knows how bad thing's going to be in two or three hours.

[CMJ]

Dauphin Island reported a 102mph wind gust about 10 minutes ago. Pensacola, Florida had sustained winds of 90+ last I saw.

[Taataani Meorrrei]

The west end of Dauphin Island is nothing more than a glorified sandbar. In good weather, you can stand at the west end, facing west. Take ten steps left, you're in the Gulf of Mexico. Ten steps right, you're in the Mississippi Sound. The island is kinda shaped like a key. The east side is where all the residential and commercial thingies are.

I've heard the no-build zone is totally under water now. Don't destroy Dauphin Island :(

[CMJ]

He's coming on shore right now...around the Alabama/Florida border(Gulfshore). Looks like Mobile Bay won't have the devestating 16-18 foot storm surge afterall.

[Taataani Meorrrei]

Not quite. It pushed against Baldwin County bayside. They'll get a big storm surge even still.

[Taataani Meorrrei]

It's down to Cat III now.

[Charley]

Rain's here. So is wind.

[General Tohmahawk]

Adn in other Hurricane news, Jeanne is about to go Cat 1. WTF, not another one?

edit : Ooops, too late. Hurricane Jeanne was already declared.

[JMK]

How long before they start calling her 'mean Jeanne' ;)

[CMJ]

Damage reports are sketchy so far...and probably will be for several more hours. The future forecast calls for this guy to stall in the Appalacian Mountains. This is NOT just a coastal event if that really occurs.

[Charley]

The center of Ivan's still around Montgomery, and we're getting absolutely bombed even still. Wind is incredible, and the rain is coming down in sheets. Power flickers on and off, so not sure how long I'll have.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5960400/?GT1=5100 Ivan news..


Tornadoes kill at least 8 in Florida
Though Ivan was centered in Alabama, the Florida Panhandle appeared to be hardest hit, with at least eight people dead.

Two people were killed and more than 200 homes were damaged when at least five tornadoes roared through Florida’s Bay County. Five people were killed when another tornado struck homes in Blountstown, Fla., and an 8-year-old girl died after being crushed by a tree that fell onto her mobile home in Milton, Fla. Her parents were unharmed.

“You want to see the natural hand of God firsthand but you don’t realize how strong it is,” said Kevin Harless, 32, who was sightseeing in Panama City Beach, Fla., around the time of the tornadoes.

Officials in Pensacola, Fla., said that four hospitals in the area sustained "significant damage," though no patients were hurt. NBC's Kerry Sanders reported that some beachfront homes in Pensacola Beach — on one of the state's barrier islands — had been destroyed.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6004150/ And now Jeanne. When is this going to stop? I don't remember a busy hurricane season like this before.


YABUCOA, Puerto Rico - Jeanne strengthened from a tropical storm into the sixth hurricane of the season Thursday, a day after lashing Puerto Rico with damaging winds and rain that knocked out power, flooded roads and killed two people.

A hurricane warning was posted for eastern and northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, as forecasters told the storm-weary Caribbean to monitor the progress of Jeanne, which had 80 mph winds with higher gusts.

The storm could potentially reach Florida, Georgia and South Carolina by the beginning of next week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

At 8 a.m. EDT, Jeanne was hugging the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, moving west near 9 mph, with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest expected in the next 24 hours.

[Charley]

Power's failed about eight times. Our back deck is damaged from straight line winds. We're about to lose a tree in our front yard. Worst is still yet to come.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Is this still a hurricane you're facing, or is this a tropical storm at this point?

[Charley]

Cat 1 hurricane

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I don't have to tell you to be careful and to stay away from the windows, do I?

:hug

[Charley]

I'm right next to a window :)

Its a Tropical Storm now ^_^;

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
[url] And now Jeanne. When is this going to stop? I don't remember a busy hurricane season like this before.

It's like this almost every year. The fact that they're hitting the US is what's unusual. The busiest season that I can remember is 1995. We got all the way to R(for Roxanne) that year.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Well I meant busy as in "busy hitting the US."

You can probably look this up easier than I can. What's the record for hurricanes hitting the US in a season?

[CMJ]

In 1916 and 1985 we had 6 landfalling hurricanes. In 1909, 1933, & 1954 we had 3 Major hurricanes landfall in the USA. We've had two major's this season and 3 total.

[Charley]

Lost power a few more times. Wind is killer here.

[CMJ]

Just for reference tracks of all Hurricanes between the late 1880's and the late 1990's.

http://www.umbc.edu/geography/Geog480_HurricaneWebPage/

The beach communities have been hit HARD by Ivan. I haven't heard damage estimates yet, but it's gotta be north of 5 billion I'd think.

[General Tohmahawk]

Unlike Charley or Frances, I've been able to get damage reports very quickly and even seen some pics of highrise apartments damaged beyond repair, roads eroded away, debris etc. Wow.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by General Tohmahawk
Unlike Charley or Frances, I've been able to get damage reports very quickly and even seen some pics of highrise apartments damaged beyond repair, roads eroded away, debris etc. Wow.

Yep, and from what I understand, we haven't even seen some of the worst hit areas yet.

[Charley]

We're fishing for human beings in Birmingham :D

[CMJ]

The last AP story I read said damage was between 4 and 10B. That's a helluva range; ;) I'm sure they'll know more in a few days. If it's 10B it'll surpass Hugo to be #2 all time money wise.

[General Tohmahawk]

Insurance experts put Ivan's damage at anywhere from $3 billion to $10 billion. Hurricanes Charley and Frances had combined estimated insured damages between about $11 billion and $13 billion after striking Florida in the past month.

And with at least 20 dead and rising. With the death and destruction in the Caribbian, this has shattered so many lives and homes. What's scary is it could have been so much worse. Surely the 2004 Hurricane season isnt going to hand out anything more.

[Charley]

I figure we'll get at least one or two more before we're through.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by General Tohmahawk
Surely the 2004 Hurricane season isnt going to hand out anything more.

Tell that to the folks in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic dealing with Jeanne. Jeanne might not survive the mountains of the DR, but I would still bet on it affecting the USA.

Ivan's wrath is not done. Looking at the forecast track this depression might flood three states.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah I am in one of them. We are going to get rain all weekend. Luckily I am not in an area that is prone to flooding but still more than five inches would be bad.

[JMK]

Keep all of your SW collectibles off of the ground in case of flooding!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Lol I live in a two floor house. I've made sure they are on the second floor ;)

[CMJ]

A little backstory on a new delopment today. Most of Ivan got shipped north with a front moving up the Eastern seabord. Part of the system was left behind and meandered out into the Atlantic where it kind of reformed. It passed over the Florida penninsula as a fairly impressive tropical wave.

Well, this afternoon this circulation was upgraded to a Tropical Depression....and was renamed Ivan, since it is spawned from the original cyclone. The last advisory upped it back to a Tropical Storm. This is maybe 10% of the original cyclone, but still....Ivan is without a doubt one of the most resilient systems I've ever seen .

[Lilaena De'Ville]

o_O Ivan is still going? That's amazing.

[Marcus Telcontar]

What??? Ivan's still going? How the hell is that possible?

[Charley]

I've never heard of anything like this happening before. Amazing.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Originally posted by CMJ
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/082203W5.gif

Hey it's still updated!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that is an unbelievable thing. Has this happened before, CMJ?

[Charley]

Now the rumors are that it might even come back to Gulf Shores after connecting at Galveston.

Why? :(

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Yeah that is an unbelievable thing. Has this happened before, CMJ?

I've seen some unusual tracks, with storms doing figure eights and stuff, but Ivan's is one of the wierdest I've seen.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Now the rumors are that it might even come back to Gulf Shores after connecting at Galveston.

Why?

Nah - it's people being scared and creating mad theories. Looks like it'll finish itself over Texas. There wont be enough left to develop into a real storm again after that. It'll have to take apretty good turn east to regrow. Jeanne should push Ivan further inland and the Crazy Russian will be finally finished. I'd be more worried by Jeanne, personally.