Hurricane Frances

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here we go again another one, this one looks Charley stregnth could be stronger won't know that till it gets past the Bahamahs today. It is aiming for Central Florida they think right now but it could hit anwhere from Miami to Wilmington N.C honestly. I am slightly worried about as I live not far away if it hits Savannah, GA or Charleston,SC. If it hits Savannah its the worst case scenerio for this region especially for my neighbor city of Augusta. It is on a river and the hurricane would just go up the river flooding the city (and Augusta is proned to floody). I have been hoping the storm would go out to sea, one bad storm a year is enough for me. Speaking of that has this happned before? Two CAT 4's hitting the U.S.?

[CMJ]

We'll see how much it fluctuates. It's still acouple of days away most likely. Yes, Carr - 2 Category 4's hit the USA in 1915. That was the only other year that I could find though. We've had a few where a 3 & a 4 struck however.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that is true it could go up to 5 or down to a three or stay a 4, there is still some time here. I am hoping it goes down, because Charley was bad we don't need a second bad storm.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Yeah that is true it could go up to 5 or down to a three or stay a 4, there is still some time here. I am hoping it goes down, because Charley was bad we don't need a second bad storm.

Charley was bad, but thankfully it was as hurricanes go, small. From what I see, Frances is huge.

I rerally hope it does back off and not get stronger - a Cat 5 storm of that size would be mind bogglingly destructive.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It be Andrew. What happened with Charley is that it came up fast and took everybody by surprise which is why it did what it did. I think the death toll will be smaller with this one because people will panic and leave which is a good thing, IMO.

[CMJ]

The death toll was actually fairly low with Charley. Floyd was the worst as far as deaths go in last couple of decades - even though it was only a Category 2 storm.

There is no real rhyme or reason with the casualties at times.

Looking at the latest satellites, Frances looks like it might be getting even better organized(if that's possible). It's pressure is already lower than Charley's was. She's almost as strong as Hugo at the moment with a pressure of 938 millibars(Hugo was at 934).

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well usually if people have time they usually leave and evcuate. Although sometimes with storms like Charley and Floyd they become unpredictable. Was Charley kind of high though for recent storms. I mean 30. Hugo didn't even have that much and that was worse.

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Tell you what, this hurricane business makes name searches for me a total bastard :grumble

[CMJ]

Hugo wasn't that much stronger than Charley - and the latter was most likely more destructive(we shall see when it all gets added up). I wouldn't say Hugo was way worse. ;)

I think Charley's death toll is about average for recent hurricanes.

[Marcus Telcontar]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040902/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_frances_florida&cid=519&ncid=716

Holy... already stronger than Charlie. And still strengthening. and headign right for the area Charlie crossed.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It looks like it is headed for somewhere between Miami and Daytona, could go north to Jacksonville. Man Florida is getting it bad this time. As about Hugo, I think people make a bigger deal around me about it because it hit the SC coastline.

[Taataani Meorrrei]

If the high pressure doesn't deflect this one out, it could actually cross the peninsula and go north up the gulf like Andrew did. Always love getting sloppy seconds from hurricanes. The appalachian foothills are like an old folks retirement home for hurricanes. They just todder off up here, become TS's and TD's, and die.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It is actually weakening some. I hope that continues.

[CMJ]

Normal fluctuations. The pressure is starting to drop again.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
Normal fluctuations. The pressure is starting to drop again.

Probably rose because it was at that point over land. Probably dropping as it's running over water again.

[Charley]

Yep. Warm seas fuel low pressures.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I was hopeful :( I would have like to see it fall apart but oh well. It also looks like it might hit florida and go back over the ocean. That is the latest projections I saw from the weather channel at least.

[CMJ]

As it continues to roll over the Bahama chain it's weakened a tad. I really wonder how badly some of those islands are being hit right now...

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
As it continues to roll over the Bahama chain it's weakened a tad. I really wonder how badly some of those islands are being hit right now...

Lets just say it's not the place to holiday right now.

[Charley]

Yeah but you could probably go behind the 'Cane in a fishing boat and catch yourself half the Bahamas olympic track team. Profit! ;)

[Marcus Telcontar]

So now we knw how they learned to run so fast. They were dodging hurricanes

Well, reading the advisories, it seems that Frances scared the hell out of even the forcasters. While it's a Cat 3 now, they are expecting it to strengthen once again once it touches the Gulf stream and comment on it's sheer size. They also admit I note they arent really sure what's going to happen.

Seems to be the size of the storm that's really worrying and the potential to linger.

What's interesting is that we hardly got any coverage of Charley. We are getting coverage of Frances.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah and Frances could could end up being a weaker storm than Charley. Does this remind anybody of Floyd?? I remember how Floyd scared the crap out of Charleston and Savannah and the whole coast left. (Floyd was a 4 and they were worried it could get to a five) all of the sudden Floyd slowed down and start to weaken. It still did a lot of damage which might be something to remember with this one.

[Charley]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
So now we knw how they learned to run so fast. They were dodging hurricanes

Technically its the flying coconuts, but this is how they fly.


Well, reading the advisories, it seems that Frances scared the hell out of even the forcasters. While it's a Cat 3 now, they are expecting it to strengthen once again once it touches the Gulf stream and comment on it's sheer size. They also admit I note they arent really sure what's going to happen.

Seems to be the size of the storm that's really worrying and the potential to linger.

They're probably fearing a Hurricane Mitch scenario, in which a big hurricane just parks it and rains and rains and rains until people die in mass quantities due to floods and whatnot.


What's interesting is that we hardly got any coverage of Charley. We are getting coverage of Frances.

A second hurricane has hit the peninsula. Its no longer an unfortunate accident, but now an act of terrism. Australia and England are of course next.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Those damn Ahab terrists stopped the rain in Autralia. Bomb them to the stone age I say. And if they in the stone age... bomb them again!

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

They hate us for our freedom and our precipitation

[Marcus Telcontar]

Now if I had the text of Shrub's acceptance speech, I could knock up a War on Weather. That's the real enemy you know. I dont know why them fellas in Washenton dont do summthing bout dem.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
Lets just say it's not the place to holiday right now.

No kidding. I was saying it more because we've had no real damage reports from the Bahamas. Makes me wonder.

If this thing moves at the snails pace it's going flooding could be really bad. Maybe not Mitch level, but terrible nonetheless.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5876681/


In addition, Frances had slowed to 9 mph, which could prolong its impact once it makes landfall. Forecasters said hurricane force winds could last as long as 18 hours once Frances makes landfall.

:(

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will be like Floyd in that way, Floyd slowed down a lot and dumped a lot of rain on NC. This could be worse though, because it so big.

[CMJ]

I think Floyd was actually larger. The Floyd comparrison is a good one though - this'll be a tremendous rain storm.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Heh I will concede you probably know more about it. Seriously yeah I think its going to be like Floyd in that way too.

[CMJ]

http://www.esa.int/export/images/hirs_hurricanefloyd_prod_20.jpg

Hurricane Floyd in 1999. I found some better images, but they were so massive I didn't use them. It looks a tad larger than Frances.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It does look larger. Now I remember why people in Charleston were so scared back in 99.

[Jedieb]

Crap, this one is probably going to come ashore a few miles north of my parents, then make its way up the middle of the state and dump more misery on my sister and cousins. My Dad's already got the windows borded up and no one went to work today. Crap, crap, crap. :(

[Marcus Telcontar]

Looks like however you might luck out. Strong Cat 2 now and just about stopped.

[JMK]

I was in Panama City this morning and my dad had the good sense to not take I-75 back to Georgia as everyone was evacuating the east coast of Florida. We cut through Dothan, AL and once back in GA we got a peek at the jams on the highway. Miles and miles long, 4 lanes across. It had better not screw up my flights back home sunday morning! ;)

[Shawn]

Originally posted by Cirrsseeto Raurrssatta
Tell you what, this hurricane business makes name searches for me a total bastard :grumble Egomaniac.

I'm all shuttered up here and not too worried. If we catch any of this in Miami, I don't think it'll be very severe. Flooding might be a problem in some areas, but I'm in the highest part of the city, IIRC.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Here it comes....

Looks like a bit of strengthening as it crosses the coast in the next 24 hours, marginally cat 3. But it size and slow speed according to thise that know more than me means a huge dump of rain over an extended period.

[CMJ]

The storm is coming ashore right now - after teasing the coast all day. Some pretty dramatic stuff on MSNBC and CNN. The ground is so saturated, even this lesser wind could take down alot of buildings, because foundations could just give. Flooding will be extreme in this sucker.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I was going to ask you, how unusual is it for a hurricane to just sit there for that long?

[CMJ]

It's pretty unusual, but not unprecedented. Usually they stall further inland...not right on the coast BEFORE landfall.

That's even made the wind damage worse. It can actually be more destructive to have 50 mph winds for 10 hours, then with 100mph for another 8-10 hours than for a Charley that has 135mph winds, but is over in 2-3 hours.

Add in all that rain that's coming down. Bad news.

[Jedi Master Carr]

going to be some bad flooding

[CMJ]

Hurricane Agnes was a Category 1 storm in 1972 that stalled and flooded the Eastern seaboard. The damage was like over a billion dollars back then, so that'd be what...4 times as much today?

That's probably the template we should use.

[CMJ]

Got this off C-News...I think it's a Canadien news site. First reports coming in from the Bahamas aren't quite as bad as I expected, but it's early.

************************


In Bahamas, hurricane Frances leaves widespread damage, severe flooding

By IAN JAMES


FREEPORT, Bahamas (AP) - After two days of roaring winds and severe flooding, Bahamians emerged under drizzly skies Sunday to witness the destruction left by hurricane Frances - walls sheared from homes, roofs collapsed, yards littered with boats, mangled trees and TV sets.

The hurricane left at least two dead and one missing, and officials said they feared the death toll could rise as they surveyed the damage. The northern island of Grand Bahama appeared particularly hard-hit, with several neighbourhoods flooded, fallen trees blocking many roads and snapped power lines lying amid debris.

Violent winds tore open a wall at Gary Roberts' home, where waters rushed in shoulder-deep, ruining furniture and mattresses.

"At least we're alive. The contents and everything can be brought back," said Roberts, a 22-year-old who took shelter elsewhere during the storm with relatives. His wife, Ronique Roberts, said a car had floated across their yard during the hurricane, which stalled over Grand Bahama Island and caused widespread damage Saturday.

It remained unclear how many homes were flooded in the Bahamas, but officials said they estimated scores - and perhaps hundreds - of homes were damaged on Grand Bahama Island alone.

One man was found floating face-down Saturday in a metre of water on the western end of Grand Bahama, police Supt. Basil Rahming said. Police believe the man had been trying to swim to safety from his flooded yard. Another man was electrocuted while trying to fill a generator with diesel as the storm raged through the capital of Nassau on Friday.

Police said they feared a third man in his 80s was likely killed in his wooden house when it collapsed Saturday near the western tip of Grand Bahama. His body had yet to be found.

At least five people on the island sustained minor injuries, from a toddler whose face was cut by a piece of flying glass to a man who hurt himself trying to cut a tree in his yard during the storm, said Sharon Williams, the administrator of Rand Memorial Hospital.

On Saturday, heavy winds shattered plate glass windows at the Crowne Plaza Resort in Freeport, including lobby windows stretching from floor to ceiling.

Hooneymooner Curt Crites, 29, of Olympia, Washington, took cover with his wife in a hallway on the hotel's ninth floor after the windows in their room shattered.

"You're thinking about what to do to keep yourself from dying," Crites said.

Power remained out in spots across the Bahamas, including Freeport, the Bahamas' second largest commercial centre, where the brunt of the slow-moving hurricane struck Saturday with sustained winds of up to 165 kilometres per hour.