Box office Contest Weekend 5

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am putting this up for now, although Yoghurt hasn't posted the winners, I need to get on him :p

This is a double points for Harry Potter the rest normal points

here are the movies

0 HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN $
0 SHREK 2 $
0 THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW $
0 TROY $
0 RAISING HELEN $
0 MEAN GIRLS $
0 VAN HELSING $
0 SOUL PLANE $0
0 MAN ON FIRE $0
0 SUPER SIZE ME $0

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am going first for the heck of it, partly I want to make a prediction before the The Prisoner of Azkaban comes out. I am afraid I will come out and make some ridiculous figure that it will never achieve. Instead I am going to be more conservative

1 HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN $95.11
2 SHREK 2 $38.97
3 THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW $ 29.22
4 TROY $ 8.41
5 RAISING HELEN $ 7.10
6 MEAN GIRLS $ 5.19
7 VAN HELSING $ 5.01
8 SOUL PLANE $3.98
9 MAN ON FIRE $2.97
10 SUPER SIZE ME $2.11

[Master Yoghurt]

Ok, here is my weekend forecast. I will put my final prediction up later :)

1. HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN $ 85
2. SHREK 2 $ 47
3. THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW $37
4. TROY $ 6.4
5. RAISING HELEN $ 6.3
6. SOUL PLANE $2.9
7. MEAN GIRLS $ 2.8
8. VAN HELSING $ 2.5
9. MAN ON FIRE $1.1
10. SUPER SIZE ME $0.88

[Jedi Master Carr]

Heh my prediction looks more extreme than yours, I think 85 is the very minium but with the records it is setting in U.K and France (it took in 1.4 in France more than the last Potter film in its first day) and the reviews which all have been glowing I think it could do more, how much I am not sure. It is also opening in 3855 theaters which is a first day record (Shrek 2 didn't open in that many theaters on its first day it did it on Friday) I think that is plenty of theaters though for it to open huge. I guess we will have to see this film can open anywhere from 85-115, IMO so it will be interesting to see how huge it will be.

[Madmartigan]

screw it, everytime i go low on a #1 movie it does great, everytime i go high on a #1 movie it does lousy so i'll play it from the hip

1. HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN $106.88M
2. SHREK 2 $ 40.12
3. THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW $31.28
4. TROY $ 6.79
5. RAISING HELEN $ 5.90
6. MEAN GIRLS $ 3.02
7. VAN HELSING $ 2.57
8. SOUL PLANE $2.50
9. MAN ON FIRE $1.21
10. SUPER SIZE ME $0.94

[Marcus Telcontar]

Box Office Guru with one exception - I'm going to highball HP at 117 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Does Guru do a top 10?? I am not sure if they do or not one of us will have to check. If not you could go with Mojos or Lees both of them do I know that. Also about your prediction, heck you could be right I have no idea how high this could go, BOM is predicting 100 for it, so who knows. It could be the third movie to crack that number. Also overseas it is doing great buisness it has made over 25 million in the UK since Monday (that is unbelivable for during the week, the weekend should give it at least 20-30 pusing it to 45-55 for the week) It broke opening day numbers in France and looks to have a 15-20 million first week. ROTK's international number record might be indangered from the way looks right now.

[ReaperFett]

1 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 104.99
2 Shrek 2 35.99
3 The Day After Tomorrow 31.99
4 Raising Helen 6.49
5 Troy 5.99
6 Mean Girls 2.99
7 Soul Plane 2.49
8 Van Helsing 2.48
9 Man on Fire 0.99
10 Super Size Me (Or: Idiot eats the same meal 3 times a day and thinks this makes him a documentary maker) 0.98

[Marcus Telcontar]

Well, if Guru dont do a top ten, I guess the remainder is Lee's Movie info.

[Master Yoghurt]

Final prediction:

1. HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN $ 99.07
2. SHREK 2 $ 42.50
3. THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW $33.01
4. RAISING HELEN $ 6.42
5. TROY $ 6.21
6. MEAN GIRLS $ 3.21
7. VAN HELSING $ 2.52
8. SOUL PLANE $2.30
9. MAN ON FIRE $1.09
10. SUPER SIZE ME $0.78

[Master Yoghurt]

Marcus: Remainder of Guru top 10 or remainder of the top 10 except your HP pick? Unless you want it changed, here is how it will look like

1. HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN $117
2. SHREK 2 $ 42 (BOG)
3. THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW $33 (BOG)
4. RAISING HELEN $ 6 (BOG)
5. TROY $ 6 (BOG)
6. MEAN GIRLS $ 3.449 (Lee)
7. SOUL PLANE $2.881 (Lee)
8. VAN HELSING $ 2.803 (Lee)
9. MAN ON FIRE $1.004 (Lee)
10. SUPER SIZE ME $0.919 (Lee)

[Master Yoghurt]

Friday estimates:

HARRY POTTER 41.22
SHREK 2 10.41
THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW 8.37
RAISING HELEN 2.04
TROY 1.69
SOUL PLANE .83
MEAN GIRLS .80
VAN HELSING .69
MAN ON FIRE .31
SUPER SIZE ME .26

[Master Yoghurt]

Todays result (estimate) puts it at #3 spot of all time top days:

1 Shrek 2 $44,797,042 ( 4,163 $10,761 )
2 Spider-Man $43,622,264 ( 3,615 $12,067 )
3 Harry Potter 3 $41,215,000 ( 3,855 $10,691 )
4 Spider-Man $39,406,872 ( 3,615 $10,901 )
5 The Matrix Reloaded $37,508,303 ( 3,603 $10,410 )
6 Shrek 2 $34,900,541 ( 4,163 $8,384 )
7 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $34,450,834 ( 3,703 $9,303 )
8 The Matrix Reloaded $34,389,237 ( 3,603 $9,545 )
9 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $34,213,803 ( 3,682 $9,292 )
10 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $33,512,941 ( 3,672 $9,127 )
11 The Passion of the Christ $33,077,939 ( 3,043 $10,870 )
12 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $32,333,203 ( 3,672 $8,805 )
13 X2: X-Men United $32,000,629 ( 3,741 $8,554 )
14 Spider-Man $31,814,980 ( 3,615 $8,801 )
15 The Matrix Reloaded $31,330,393 ( 3,603 $8,696 )
16 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones $31,253,618 ( 3,161 $9,887 )
17 X2: X-Men United $31,247,979 ( 3,741 $8,353 )
18 Spider-Man $30,505,929 ( 3,615 $8,439 )
19 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones $30,141,471 ( 3,161 $9,535 )
20 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $29,631,453 ( 3,682 $8,048 )

Makes you wonder how much it will make tomorrow..

[Marcus Telcontar]

I'm thinking new all time daily record. No sweat. If it's in enough theatres, 47 million should be doable.

[Master Yoghurt]

Or even the magic 50 million mark...

Its hard to say though. Possibly its allready running at full steam. I mean, there are only so many seats to occupy at certain amount of theaters, and at certain times of screening. Although its tempting to just say it will make 3 times the opening day amount, conventional box office theory does not always apply when the gross reaches heights like this. What one also have to remember, movies with a strong fan base tends to accumulate preorders, and a large number of people rushing to see it opening day.

I do agree with you though, a new all time record looks likely now for saturday.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I say 115 at least, it is amazing I hoped it would do this but didn't think it would. The question is why? It made 8 more million than the SS and 11 million more than the COS. Is it because of the summer? I think that is part of it, but I think it is also because teenagers went to it, especially teenage girls, I saw a lot of 12-16 year old girls in my theater. The trailers made it look more grown up, cooler and darker which drawed in a new audience, which I think is propelling it, that part is awesome I hope it does 400 million now, I think it has a shot, with the WOM and June to itself until Spiderman 2 come out and the really big thing is the movie is going to do huge overseas. The dollar is down and there are people saying it could make 700-800 over there which would make it the #2 film of all time, and people said the Harry Potter franchise was dead :p
Also look at TDAT yuck, it might do 25 million that is like a 70% drop, man it looks like the Hulk of this year.

[Madmartigan]

I hope it does 600 million, then again I hope any half decent movie does 600 million becuase that craptastic Titanic movie does not deserve to be the #1 movie.

[Marcus Telcontar]

The dollar is down and there are people saying it could make 700-800 over there which would make it the #2 film of all time, and people said the Harry Potter franchise was dead

Those who said the Potter francise was dead were idiots, pure and simple. Why is anyone surprised to see Potter take off like this? The advance word was the movie was the best and by itself a great film. I'll only be gobsmacked if it reaches 50 million single day.

The other two were released in Autumn / Winter which I would not say was ther time of year for it's target market. It's tarket market is summer - FWIW, if LOTR had gotten a summer release, it's numbers would have been bigger.

POA got the tent pole date and your now seeing the results. I think we have our 2004 No 1 - I just dont see spiderman 2 going close. especialyl O/S. I think there's a chance Shrek 2 will do 400 million, but I think Potter will beat whatever number Shrek 2 gets - by some margin, if I have this read right.

Potter may not be LOTR (what is?), but it sounds excellent. I'm glad to see a huge pay day for somethign worthwhile. Hopefulyl with LOTR and HP, studios will be moved to actually do something decent, becuase it's clear quality will win.

remidns me, Gotta set up a LOTR marathon on the DVD player

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will be # 1WW regardless, the domestic totals will be a close race. It very well could be because of the summer, although I think the teen factor is helping it somewhat, it helps when they can now connect to them and they actually see the movies as cool, it will really help the franchise from here out.

[Master Yoghurt]

Harry Potters saturday number:

$33,500,000 -17.9% / $8,690

Or to quote myself.. :)


Although its tempting to just say it will make 3 times the opening day amount, conventional box office theory does not always apply when the gross reaches heights like this. What one also have to remember, movies with a strong fan base tends to accumulate preorders, and a large number of people rushing to see it opening day.

[Master Yoghurt]

Estimate updated:

Friday: $38,210,000
Saturday: $31,430,000
Sunday: $23,000,000

3 day weekend: $92,640,000

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I think Friday's numbers were slightly exageratted, and I think it made more because of all the midnight shows the film had, and they all just about sold out, that gave it probably 5 million more than it got on Friday. Still the movie did Phenominal that is two million more than first film I still think it will outgross the original film domestically maybe like make 325 or something and it should still be the #1 movie WW which is all that matters.

[Master Yoghurt]

I agree, the midnight showings must have frontloaded the weekend. These numbers are actually a lot more what could normally be expected. Then there were all the hardcore fans rushing out to see it on friday. Sunday estimate could also turn out being too low. It could make somewhere above 300M domestically, which is still very strong.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah, I agree with you. I think I got a little too nuts when I saw the BOM's estimates too so I was slightly disapointed when I saw the studio estimates still this is a great weekend and it will do very well at the box office and has nothing to be ashamed about. You should read some of the posts over at BOM though man there are are some disapointed folks over there :p Seriously though POA will be the #1 movie WW so it has nothing to be ashamed of.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I am reading through those threads now. Some of the responses are absolutely hilarious. It sounds like they are ready to jump off a cliff or something. Come on. This one of the largest ever openings, nothing to cry about. What kind of legs its going to have, is too early to say until we see the actuals. I dont think this is another matrix reloaded. The reviews and WOM has actually been rather good.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that is my opinion some of the people's response there are insane you have two groups the one that wanted to see it reach 120 are upset that it didn't make it, and the ones that are saying its going to be the most frontloaded movie of all time. So yeah it looks like that place has some nuts. I think that is why I don't like going there that much :p I think it will do better than the second movie which took in like 260 something, should make 280 least, and could still slip by the 290 mark and heck, IMO that is great especially considering how much it will make overseas.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I dont think it will have any problem doing better than the second movie. A final gross close to or above 300M looks more likely IMO. Especially concidering all the great reviews and WOM, I think the final result might surprise some of those who spell fire and brimstone at BOM forums, hehe

And like you stated earlier, it is the world wide gross that really matters

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah and the movies are way more popular overseas than in the US the way it is performing in England it might challenge Titantic's record there. As for the US I honestly didn't expect anything much above 300 originally. I think my original guess was between 280-300.

[ReaperFett]

Hardly fair to compare it to Titanic though. Titanic didn't take all of my cinema :mad

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I read that a lot. It sounds like PoA took a disproportional amount of screens relative to its theater number. Does anyone have the print number?

I can sort of understand the theater owners though. They know its going to be sellouts all weekend, thus logically they want to put it on as many screens as possible to maximise profit. Like it or not, that sort of tactic seems to be growing trend. I noticed this a lot at my theaters lately too. They put the big openers on all the screens and leave the movies with good legs performance out. Not so cool, as I often miss out on good movies like this. Not everyone goes to see movies opening weekend.. :|

[ReaperFett]

I don't see how they can get much profit from it being hugely excessive though. Are you telling me that removing two showings of HP, ones where there is a showing 30 minutes later, and replacing them with showings of The Day After Tommorow, in it's second week, would make less money?

[Master Yoghurt]

Probably not. Your theatre sounds extreme. Removing all other movies just for Harry Potter is a bit insane. I was talking in general.

[Madmartigan]

I think you guys are jumping the gun a little, the movie in my opinion still has a shot at 400 million domestically. Yea the Saturday numbers were slightly down simply because everyone rushed to see it friday. But you got to remember all the people who didn't see it this weekend, with the thought of waiting tell the crowds die down. I have already talked to two people who were really excited to see it and said they were waiting a week or two because they did not want to see the movie with all the kids (and i somewhat agree too many parents do not teach their kids proper etiquitte when in public places). Then there is the repeaters, people who will want to see the movie more than once (I saw it myself for a second time this afternoon) as it is the best of the potter movies so far. The movie should have good legs tell Spiderman 2 comes out and I don't see it not making at least 300 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't know about 400, but it might beat the first one's gross which would make me happy. I am still hoping it becomes the third movie to make 1 billion it has an excellent chance with what I have heard so far overseas.

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend actuals

1. HP3 $93.69m
2. Shrek 2 $37.93m
3. TDAT $27.87m
4. Raising Helen $6.55m
5. Troy $5.98m
6. Mean Girls $2.93m
7. Soul Plane $2.76m
8. Van Helsing $2.44m
9. Man on Fire $1.05m
10. Super Size Me $0.84m

I will get the scores posted early tomorrow, unless Carr beats me to it :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL Maybe I will see :p I am glad WB estimate was low, that is a good sign, they were high for the first two movies, overestimated like by 3 million for both. Now it just needs a good drop :) Also the movie took in over 200 million WW since last Monday, it is off to heck of a start, I can't see how it won't be the #1 movie of the year WW.

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Accuracy Table
ReaperFett: 92.42%
Master Yoghurt: 91.25%
Madmartigan: 88.38%
Marcus 88.31%
Jedi Master Carr: 52.21%

Weekend Winners
1. ReaperFett - 15 points
2. Master Yoghurt - 10
3. Madmartigan - 5

Movie Order Points
ReaperFett (top 10) - 30 points
Marcus (top 10) - 30 points
Master Yoghurt (top 5) - 10 points
Madmartigan (top 3) - 5
Jedi Master Carr (top 3) - 5

Weekend Bonus
Jedi Master Carr wins 30 bonus points for having the best Harry Potter prediction

[Master Yoghurt]

Season Scoretable
Position - Name - Streak (5 best weeks) - Bonus Points - Total Score

1. ReaperFett: 76.96 - 87.14 - 85.17 - 77.51 - 92.42 (+155) = 4347
2. Marcus: 75.88 - 84.84 - 83.76 - 83.93 - 88.31 (+110) = 4277.2
3. Master Yoghurt: 73.82 - 79.94 - 78.87 - 71.98 - 91.25 (+85) = 4043.6
4. Madmartigan: 73.07 - 74.89 - 83.84 - 70.65 - 88.38 (+40) = 3948.3
5. Jedi Master Carr: 71.13 - 67.50 - 63.65 - 52.03 - 52.21 (+80) = 3145.2
6. CMJ: 72.25 - 82.23 - 77.18 - 77.32 (+35) = 3124.8
7. Ryan Pode: 61.30 - 40.79 - 49.02 (+40) = 1551.1
8. Asudak Jasra: 67.07 - 77.45 (+5) = 1450.2
9. Rasha Vill: 75.88 (+5) = 763.8

[ReaperFett]

:lol