Box Office Contest Week 3

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay here is next weeks contest even though Shrek 2 comes out Wed we are going 3 day weekend so it begins Friday. You have until Saturday 9AM

You can still play if you missed a week.

Here are the movies to guess

0 SHREK 2 $0
0 TROY $0
0 VAN HELSING $0
0 MEAN GIRLS $0
0 MAN ON FIRE $0
0 BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $0
0 13 GOING ON 30 $0
0 NEW YORK MINUTE $0
0 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $0
0 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $0

[Master Yoghurt]

This is my preliminary weekend forecast (not final prediction):

1. SHREK 2 $65M
2. TROY $23M
3. VAN HELSING $8.5M
4. MEAN GIRLS $7M
5. MAN ON FIRE $3
6. BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $2.75
7. 13 GOING ON 30 $2.6
8. NEW YORK MINUTE $2.3
9. LAWS OF ATTRACTION $1.1
10. KILL BILL VOL. 2 $0.80

[CMJ]

1. Shrek 2 - 67.06M
2. Troy - 27.04M
3. Van Helsing - 9.55M
4. Mean Girls - 6.53M
5. Man on Fire - 3.33M
6. Breaking all the Rules - 2.84M
7. 13 Going on 30 - 2.82M
8. New York Minute - 2.33M
9. Laws of Attraction - 1.36M
10. Kill Bill Voulume 2 - 1.02M

[Marcus Telcontar]

Mjo, with Shrek changed to 71 mil

[Madmartigan]

1 SHREK 2 $58.22
2 TROY $22.78
3 VAN HELSING $9.01
4 MEAN GIRLS $6.34
5 MAN ON FIRE $3.10
6 BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $2.43
7 13 GOING ON 30 $2.22
8 NEW YORK MINUTE $1.54
9 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $1.01
10 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $.92

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 SHREK 2 $69.45
2 TROY $28.12
3 VAN HELSING $10.21
4 MEAN GIRLS $7.94
5 MAN ON FIRE $4.21
6 BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $3.84
7 13 GOING ON 30 $3.11
8 NEW YORK MINUTE $2.04
9 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $2.01
10 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $1.75

[Ryan Pode]

1 SHREK 2 $75.45
2 TROY $23.25
3 VAN HELSING $12.90
4 MEAN GIRLS $8.67
5 MAN ON FIRE $7.77
6 BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $6.60
7 13 GOING ON 30 $6.50
8 NEW YORK MINUTE $3.22
9 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $2.70
10 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $.970


Got them in on time, as opposed to last week where I figured I'd be up in time to post them... the morning after prom.

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL missing one week won't hurt you this year.

[Master Yoghurt]

Final prediction:

1. SHREK 2 $65.67M
2. TROY $24.45M
3. VAN HELSING $8.71M
4. MEAN GIRLS $7.05M
5. MAN ON FIRE $3.12
6. BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $2.75
7. 13 GOING ON 30 $2.61
8. NEW YORK MINUTE $2.32
9. LAWS OF ATTRACTION $1.10
10. KILL BILL VOL. 2 $0.80

[Master Yoghurt]

Marcus' prediction (Box Office Mojo)

1. Shrek 2 63.3
2. Troy 25.4
3. Van Helsing 10.6
4. Mean Girls 6.9
5. Man on Fire 3.3
6. Breakin' All the Rules 2.8
7. 13 Going on 30 2.5
8. New York Minute 2.1
9. Laws of Attraction 1.1
10. Kill Bill Vol. 2 0.8

[ReaperFett]

The week I lose my lead :D

1. Shrek 2 62.99
2. Troy 24.99
3. Van Helsing 10.99
4. Mean Girls 6.99
5. Man on Fire 3.49
6. Breakin' All the Rules 2.99
7. 13 Going on 30 2.49
8. New York Minute 1.99
9. Laws of Attraction 1.09
10. Kill Bill Vol. 2 0.99

[Master Yoghurt]

Friday estimates

1. Shrek 2 - $28,500,000 - $49,445,000
2. Troy - $6,990,000 - $69,025,000
3. Van Helsing - $2,933,000 - $92,898,000
4. Mean Girls - $2,061,000 - $59,860,000
5. Man on Fire - $980,000 - $66,761,000
6. Breakin' All the Rules - $824,000 - $7,032,000
7. 13 Going on 30 - $754,000 - $50,322,000
8. New York Minute - $330,000 - $11,650,000
9. Kill Bill Vol. 2 - $295,000 - $62,928,000
10. Laws of Attraction - $289,000 - $16,214,000
11. Super Size Me - $271,000 - $2,239,000

Shrek 2 did spectaculary well and New York Minute did spectaculary poor..

We may see a weekend result something like this:

Shrek 2 90m
Troy 23.5m
Van Helsing 9.6m
Mean Girls 6.4m
Man On Fire 3.4m
Breakin all the rules 2.8m
13 Going on 30 2.5m
New York Minute 1.2m
Kill Bill Vol. 2 1m
Laws of Attraction 0.9m

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know I didn't think it do that well after Wed and Thurs only made 20 million those two days combined. Should make close to 90 for the weekend.

[Ryan Pode]

I think today Shrek 2 will hit about 30 million with a 20 million Sunday, thus making about 75 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Maybe I'd say more like 85 but it will be between 75-90 I am certain of that.

[Master Yoghurt]

Shrek 2 made <font size=3>$43 million</font> on saturday. 90 million + weekend should be lock now. Possibly 100M. Were talking Spiderman type of numbers now. Wow :eek

[Master Yoghurt]

Saturday estimates

1. Shrek 2- $43,400,000 ( 52.3% )
2. Troy- $9,370,000 ( 34% )
3. Van Helsing- $4,278,000 ( 45.9% )
4. Mean Girls- ?
5. Man On Fire- $1,557,000 ( 59.7% )
6. Breakin' All The Rules- $1,227,000 ( 48.9% )
7. 13 Going On 30- $1,076,000 ( 42.7% )
8. New York Minute- $506,000 ( 53.3% )
9. Laws Of Attraction- $430,000 ( 48.8% )
10. Kill Bill: Volume II- $421,000 ( 42.7% )

[Master Yoghurt]

My guess for the 3 day weekend now is 105 million. Who would have thought that! O_o

Concidering these animated family movies tend to hold fairly strong, we have a serious contender for HP and Spiderman II right there. Where will this end? Will it beat Nemo's final box office run? It very well might! Next weekend should be huge with memorial day.

[Master Yoghurt]

Saturday estimate has just been adjusted to 44.3 million. When the actuals come out, we may be looking at the biggest day of box office in motion picture history!

<img src=http://www.thegjo.com/smileys/jawdrop.gif>


:: contemplates a few minutes how big this is, then falls out of the chair ::

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
:: contemplates a few minutes how big this is, then falls out of the chair ::

That was pretty much my reaction.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is unbelievable really. Still I think it won't have legs of Nemo, with Harry Potter coming out in two weeks it will take a lot of money away from it, heck I am wondering now if Potter can top that it could, I think the fan base is huge and this movie is really getting me excited.

[CMJ]

I don't think the 3rd HP flick has a chance at this kind of number. I do expect it to open really big though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I think it could open at 100 million for 3 days, I don't see a 40 million day could open at 35, make 38 and 30 something like that and do over 100. I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Master Yoghurt]

If it has a significant boost in the amount of theaters from previous runs, it might have a chance. I think it will be hard though. That saturday number made me into a shrek believer. At this point, I think Shrek 2 will overall gross more than Spiderman II and HP.

When HP opens, Shrek might not lose that much traffic. In fact, it may possibly get some spillover traffic. Guess what happens when a bunch of kids see the "Sold Out" sign for HP? Yep, they go to see Shrek 2.

[Figrin D'an]

$125.3 million for Shrek 2 in it's first 5 days...

I really wonder about it's legs, though. I don't think the spillover from HP is gonna be that much, considering it's probably gonna open on 4000 screens. If there were less screens, I'd be more inclined to agree with overflow going to Shrek 2.


To be honest, I'm becoming less and less impressed with the box office records being broken, because they're happening so often. It makes me less inclined to believe in the popularity of a given film and more so in things like increases in ticket prices. I would really like to see a tracking of ticket prices over the past 10-15 years. I'm willing to bet that somewhere in the area of 60% of the current cost of a ticket has come from price hikes in the last 4-5 years.


The only box office record that really means anything at this point is the all-time total gross mark. It'll take a remarkable film to top Titanic in that regard (or Gone with the Wind, if you do the 'adjusted for inflation' thing).

At least if it's gonna happen in the next 10-15 years or so, before it's costs us $50 a person to go see a movie. :rolleyes.

[Madmartigan]

I am blown away, after its fairly weak Wednesday and Thursday numbers (11 and 8 million) i thought it might have trouble hitting 60 million for the weekend, and instead it goes on to do 104 million, thats just amazing

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that is shocking. I agree with Fig I think people rushed out to see it, I don't see it having Nemo Legs here. Also WB will get HP out in the same amount of theaters or close it will be at 4000 and like 9000 screens so I don't think there will be much spillover either. Still it should make 250 easily and has a great shot at 300, I think we might have 3 films over 300 or I at least hope we will. We came close last year with Matrix falling like 18 million short maybe this year will be different.
Edit I mean for the summer. We will have 4 films for the year if that happesn.

[Madmartigan]

There was 3 films for 2003 that did 300 million
Pirates of the Caribbean
Finding Nemo
Return of the King

there was also 3 films in 2002
Spiderman
Attack of the Clones
The Two Towers


i doubt there will be a year again without 3 films as it is almost an assurity for this year too
Passion of the Christ
Harry Potter (summer release, plus it being the most popular potter books should help it easily beat chamber of secrets)
Spiderman

and now shrek 2 looks a possibility

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think we will have four this year Harry Potter could do it, along with Shrek 2 and Spiderman. Then there is the Winter releases although nothing to me stands out that can do it.

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Actuals

1. Shrek, 108,037,878; 128,983,060 Total
2. Troy, 23,925,330
3. Van Helsing, 10,561,655
4. Mean Girls, 6,907,627
5. Man on Fire, 3,680,522
6. Breakin, 2,845,368
7. 13 Going on 30, 2,512,234
8. New York Minute, 1,302,152
9. Kill Bill 2, 1,078,811
10. Super Size Me, 973,644

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Accuracy Table
ReaperFett: 85.17%
Madmartigan: 83.84%
Marcus: 83.76%
Master Yoghurt: 78.87%
CMJ: 77.18%
Jedi Master Carr: 63.65%
Ryan Pode: 40.79%


Weekend Winners
1. ReaperFett 85.17% - 15 bonus points
2. Madmartigan 83.84% - 10 points
3. Marcus 83.76% - 5 points

Movie Order Points
Everyone gets 10 bonus points for getting top 5 right

[Master Yoghurt]

Season Scoretable
Position - Name - Streak (5 best weeks) - Bonus Points - Total Score

1. ReaperFett: 76.96 - 87.14 - 85.17 (+60) = 2552.7
2. Marcus: 75.88 - 84.84 - 83.76 (+40) = 2484.8
3. Master Yoghurt: 73.82 - 79.94 - 78.87 (+25) = 2351.3
4. Madmartigan: 73.07 - 74.89 - 83.84 (+25) = 2343
5. CMJ: 72.25 - 82.23 - 77.18 (+20) = 2336.6
6. Jedi Master Carr: 71.13 - 67.50 - 63.65 (+15) = 2037.8
7. Asudak Jasra: 67.07 - 77.45 (+5) = 1450.2
8. Ryan Pode: 61.30 - 40.79 (+10) = 1030.9
9. Rasha Vill: 75.88 (+5) = 763.8

ReaperFett maintains the lead, Marcus holds second while me, Madmartigan and CMJ are fighting for third, Jedi Master Carr are lurking behind gaining some more points, and Ryon Pode is back in the game. Remember, its the 5 best weeks which counts, so every single one on this score sheet may win, in fact even those who have not played yet have a good chance as long as they do 5 good weeks during the season.

The next weekend, its bonus week with extra bonus points. Make sure to play! The bonus points are as follows:

1st - 30 points
2nd - 20
3rd - 15
4th - 10
5th - 5

[ReaperFett]

:lol!

[Master Yoghurt]

Bah, I will get you sooner or later :evil

[Master Yoghurt]

From now on, I will also post the percentage accuracy for the winner, so we know what to compare with. Fett had excellent overall accuracy, and had a lower number for this weekends bombshell than most; New York Minute. This is how it looks like:

ReaperFett

Shrek 2 - (62.99 / 108.04) -- Accuracy: 58.30%
Troy - (24.99 / 23.9) -- Accuracy: 95.44%
Van Helsing - (10.99 / 10.6) -- Accuracy: 96.32%
Mean Girls - (6.99 / 6.9) -- Accuracy: 98.70%
Man On Fire - (3.49 / 3.7) -- Accuracy: 94.32%
Breakin' All the Rules - (2.99 / 2.8) -- Accuracy: 93.21%
13 Going on 30 - (2.49 / 2.5) -- Accuracy: 99.60%
New York Minute - (1.99 / 1.3) -- Accuracy: 46.92%
Kill Bill Vol. 2 - (0.99 / 1.1) -- Accuracy: 90.00%
Laws of Attraction - (1.09 / 0.9) -- Accuracy: 78.89%

OVERALL ACTUAL ACCURACY: 85.17%

New Release: 58.30%
Still in Theater: 88.16%