Box office Contest Week 2

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay here is weekend 2, now anybody can still jump in and play, with the new rules you still have a great chance, here are the movies to predict

0 TROY $0
0 VAN HELSING $0
0 MEAN GIRLS $0
0 BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $0
0 MAN ON FIRE $ 0
0 13 GOING ON 30 $0
0 NEW YORK MINUTE $0
0 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $0
0 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $0
0 GODSEND $0

[Master Yoghurt]

1. TROY $55.01M
2. VAN HELSING $21.01M
3. MEAN GIRLS $8.01M
4. BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $6.10M
5. MAN ON FIRE $4.50M
6. 13 GOING ON 30 $3.50M
7. NEW YORK MINUTE $2.42M
8. KILL BILL VOL. 2 $2.12M
9. LAWS OF ATTRACTION $1.99M
10. GODSEND $1.45M

[Madmartigan]

1 TROY $65.88
2 VAN HELSING $25.01
3 MEAN GIRLS $8.27
4 BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $5.87
5 MAN ON FIRE $ 4.12
6 13 GOING ON 30 $3.17
7 NEW YORK MINUTE $2.44
8 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $2.12
9 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $1.89
10 GODSEND $1.54

[CMJ]

1. Troy - 43.89M
2. Van Helsing - 22.21M
3. Mean Girls - 8.53M
4. Breaking All the Rules - 7.70M
5. Man on Fire - 4.56M
6. 13 Going on 30 - 3.54M
7. New York Minute - 3.09M
8. Laws of Attraction - 2.05M
9. Kill Bill Volume 2 - 1.86M
10. Godsend - 1.35M

[Mu Satach]

Good God... you all are doing the top 10???

Yikes...

[Marcus Telcontar]

Box Office Mojo me.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 TROY $57.33
2 VAN HELSING $22.14
3 MEAN GIRLS $8.41
4 BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $8.01
5 MAN ON FIRE $ 6.11
6 13 GOING ON 30 $4.75
0 NEW YORK MINUTE $4.11
0 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $2.99
0 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $2.59
0 GODSEND $1.66

[Master Yoghurt]

In order to help people predicting, I will include some info here in this post about the movies opening and the weekend holdovers. This weekend, there are 2 movies opening; Troy and Breakin' All the Rules.

<font size=4 color=yellow face=verdana>Troy</font>

<img src=http://troymovie.warnerbros.com/img/photobook/10.jpg>

Unless you have been living under a rock, you have probably heard about Troy. Being about the third most anticipated movie of the year (after Spiderman II and Harry Potter) - Troy is a $175 million budget epic, based on the famous Greek legend and myth described in Homer's "The Illiad". This is the classic story about how beautiful Helen of Sparta (Diane Kruger) leaves her husband for Paris of Troy (Orlando Bloom), triggering a great war between the nations of Troy and Sparta. Starring the warrior Achilles is Brad Pitt and Eric Bana plays Prince Hector, defender of Troy. With a grand epic feel like Lord of the Rings, a strong cast and being based on Homers The Illiad, this combination is sure to make people flock to the theaters like womprats on crack.

In 3,411 theaters, this starspun blockbuster could make anything between $45-75 million during the weekend..

Distributor: Warner Bros
Running Time: 2 hrs. 43 min
MPAA Rating: R
Production Budget: $175 million
Est. Marketing Costs: $50 million
Trailer: http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/troy/trailer/
Rotten tomatoes: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/Troy-1132530/


<font size=3 color=cyan face=verdana>Breakin' All the Rules</font>
<img src=http://www.sonypictures.com/groups/us/documents/image/gp034168.gif>

In the lower end of the spotlight this weekend, is Breakin' All the Rules a romantic comedy opening at a modest 1,318 theaters. With the competition of Mean Girls and 13 going on 30, a low theater count and Troy trouncing on everything else, look for it to open in the $5-7M district.

Distributor: Sony / Screen Gems
Running Time: 1 hrs. 22 min
MPAA Rating: PG-13
Trailer: http://www.apple.com/trailers/sony_pictures/breakingalltherules/
Rotten tomatoes: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/BreakinAlltheRules-1132454/

[Master Yoghurt]

In order to spot the trend for holdovers, here are thursday numbers:
<font size=-2>1 VH $2,556,125 -10.6% $64,367,790
2 Mean Girls $768,021 +5% $45,218,204
3 MOF $636,024 -5.7% $59,068,364
4 13GO30 $387,542 +3.4% $44,415,259
5 KBV2 $328,000 -6.8% $59,207,272
6 Laws of Attraction $302,000 -1.6% $13,291,809
7 Godsend $249,000 -3.9% $12,390,282
8 NYM $242,337 +0.4% $6,969,416
9 Envy $218,699 +0.1% $10,856,509
10 Punisher $130,000 0% $32,605,685
11 TPOTC $94,803 +1.2% $368,394,004
12 HOTR $84,676 +8.1% $47,565,261</font>

as a reminder... this what happened last weekend. Expect drops in the 40-60% range, depending on the movie:
<font size=-2>
1 VH N/ $51,748,040 / 3575 theatres/ -/ $51,748,040
2 mean girls 1/ $13,676,552 /2972/ -44%/ $42,073,762
3 MOF 2/ $8,235,535 /2846/ -45.1%/ $56,350,858
4 NYM N/ $5,962,106/ 3006/ -/ $5,962,106
5 13GO30 3/ $5,816,841 /3158/ -41.1%/ $42,880,123
6 LoA 5/ $3,678,133/ 2449/ -45.3%/ $12,091,749
7 KBV2 7/ $3,022,006/ 1952/ -48.4%/ $57,791,775
8 Godsend 4/ $2,793,785/ 2323/ -58.9%/ $11,366,944
9 Envy 6/ $2,506,209/ 2445/ -59.3%/ $9,967,996
10 HOTR 9/ $1,253,738/ 1356/ -45.6%/ $47,260,250
11 The Punisher 8/ $1,136,409/ 1435/ -67.5%/ $32,081,125
12 Scooby doo 2 10/ $1,009,389/ 1309/ -55.9%/ $81,038,467</font>

[Asudak Jasra]

1 TROY $64.6M
2 VAN HELSING $21.6M
3 MEAN GIRLS $7.53M
4 BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES $5.14M
5 MAN ON FIRE $ 3.72M
6 13 GOING ON 30 $3.25M
7 NEW YORK MINUTE $2.79M
8 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $2.12M
9 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $2.05M
10 GODSEND $1.48M

[Master Yoghurt]

For Marcus, here are BOM predictions:

01. Troy $57.6m
02. Van Helsing $23.4m
03. Mean Girls $8.3m
04. Breakin' All The Rules $7.0m
05. Man on Fire $5.3m
06. 13 Going On 30 $3.5m
07. New York Minute $2.8m
08. Laws of Attraction $1.9m
09. Kill Bill Volume 2 $1.6m
10. Godsend $1.1m

[ReaperFett]

1. Troy $59.99m
2. Van Helsing $24.99m
3. Mean Girls $9.99m
4. Breakin' All The Rules $6.99m
5. Man on Fire $4.99m
6. 13 Going On 30 $3.99m
7. New York Minute $2.99m
8. Laws of Attraction $1.99m
9. Kill Bill Volume 2 $1.98m
10. Godsend $0.99m

[Master Yoghurt]

Friday estimates (w/ percentage drop)

Troy 16.950m
Van Helsing 6.564m (-66%)
Mean Girls 3.148m (-33%)
Breakin All The Rules 1.770m
Man on Fire 1.411m (-38%)
13 Going on 30 1.237m (-26%)
New York Minute 1.135m (-48%)
Laws of Attraction 0.625m (-41%)
Kill Bill 0.517m (-43%)
Godsend 0.367m (-60%)

[Master Yoghurt]

Troy looks to get an opening in the 50-55m region. Van Helsing drops veeery fast, and the same with Godsend (grrr..). Mean Girls is again holding well. Breakin all the rules should get about 5.5 millions or so. The best hold goes to 13 Going on 30 with only a 26% drop.

Seems like were all starting to get accustomed to this new system, and predicting overall conciderable better than last weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Solid opening for Troy should pull in around 50, should have a better Saturday. Van Helsing well I think it will make close to 20, it still will drop about 60% though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Troy didn't open as high as I had hoped

1 Troy $45,615,000 NEW $45,615,000
2 Van Helsing $20,138,000 -61% $84,506,000
3 Mean Girls $10,100,000 -26% $55,318,000
4 Breakin' All the Rules $5,300,000 NEW $5,300,000
5 Man on Fire $5,250,000 -36% $64,318,000
6 13 Going on 30 $4,200,000 -27% $48,615,000
7 New York Minute $3,754,000 -37% $10,723,000
8 Laws of Attraction $2,075,000 -43% $15,367,000
9 Kill Bill Vol. 2 $1,627,000 -46% $60,834,000
10 Envy $1,030,000 -59% $11,886,000

Still think it will have better legs than Van Helsing but it probably won't do 200 million man this summer is off to a slow start. I think Shrek 2 will have the biggest opening of this month now, at least 60 maybe as much as 70.

[CMJ]

Uhh here is what I said....


Originally posted by CMJ
I think Troy will play more like Gladiator. What I mean is since it's an R rated period flick, I expect a 40M+ opening(not a MASSIVE first weekend) that ends up playing well the whole summer.

We shall see though.

You guys thought I was nuts. :p

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I was surprised how Troy managed to decrease on saturday, when every other movie improved significantly.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The Saturday thing is what makes me nervous about it, movies that decrease on Saturdays usually has bad legs so I disagree with you there CMJ I don't think it will play like Gladiator. I think that is why I was hoping for a bigger opening I didn't see great legs for it, for various reasons. Mostly though the competition is going to be brutal for it, from Shrek 2, DAT and HP3.

[CMJ]

Okay, but you guys thought I was nuts about the "low" opening. It's legs remain to be seen. Though it went down yesterday it apparently has decent word of mouth from what I've heard and read.

I'm planning on seeing it in the next week or so.

[Master Yoghurt]

I agree. Its a tad worrying. Lets take a closer look at saturday numbers:

1. TROY- $16,940,000 (-0.1%)
2. VAN HELSING- $8,964,000 (+36.6%)
3. MEAN GIRLS- $4,308,000 (+36.8%)
4. BREAKIN' ALL THE RULES- $2,040,000 (+15.3%)
5. MAN ON FIRE- $2,080,000 (+47.4%)
6. 13 GOING ON 30- $1,790,000 (+44.7%)
7. NEW YORK MINUTE - $1,682,000 (+48.2%)
8. LAWS OF ATTRACTION - $875,000 (+40%)
9. KILL BILL VOL. 2- $705,000 (+36.4%)
10. GODSEND - $438,000 (+19.3%)
11. ENVY- $430,000 (+23.6%)
12. SUPER SIZE ME- $297,000 (+35%)

Troy was the only movie to make a drop. That is neither normal or expected behavior, unless its allready now starting to show some signs of being frontloaded. When VH had a poor weekend multiplier, it was widely expected, because of mixed word of mouth. As Troy starts to show some of the same symtoms, its rather worrying for the future box office run.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I admit I did think you were nuts :p I think it was more wishful thinking on my part that it would do over 50 I really didn't take into account the R ratiing. I bet you if they had cut the sex out and got Pg-13 it would have but that was their choice I guess.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah Yoghurt it is. I think it won't do more than 170 now, but that might be too high, it could fall anywhere from 130-150 at this point. Well so far this summer is 0 for 2 and both original movies, it looks like this summer is going to come down to the sequels (Shrek, HP and SM)

[CMJ]

Man, just about everyone I saw and read was thinking a 50M+ opening was in order. It just reminded me WAAAY too much of Gladiator. Folks were talking high 40's low 50's for that...back in 2000 when huge openers weren't quite as common.

When it opened at like 34.8M people(including yours truly) were literally shocked. I learned my lesson.

[Master Yoghurt]

Well, CMJ I did not think it was nuts to predict that. In fact, earlier in the thread I said it could make anything from 45m and upwards, and at the very least it should make that. I did however think a 50m + result was much more likely, and before I saw saturday numbers, me and a lot of other people who follow box office were very surprised to see Troy dropping from friday. Its not just me and Carr, just look here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=38920

Matrix Reloaded did 91M, and it was R rated. So I dont agree R rated movies cant make big numbers, although it is no doubt much harder than with a PG-13 rating. I am starting to wonder though, if R rated movies which opens big have a tendency to drop fast..

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I think it kept some teen age girls out, (or they snuck in) which would effect the box office. I think the lenght also hurt it for its opening weekend a 3 hour film gets less showings so combined with the R rating it makes sense. Still I don't see Gladiator legs honestly but lucky for it, I think it will do very well overseas which will make it profitable.

[CMJ]

I think MR was an aberration. Besides, have we had a massive R rated opening for a non sequel?

And yeah I've followed BO for years too. Not all movies behave the same though...so I go with my gut alot of the time. That's something I've learned in my 11 summers of watching the numbers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well there is the Passion :p of course that was a different circumstance. I can't think of anything that has opened big with a R rating that wasn't a sequel besides that though.

[Master Yoghurt]

Originally posted by CMJ
I think MR was an aberration. Besides, have we had a massive R rated opening for a non sequel?

Yes, very recently in fact:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=passionofthechrist.htm

Here is a good list of top box office grosses for R rated movies:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic/alltimempaa.htm

If you examine the box office runs of those movies individually and adjust for inflation, you can see big opening weekends are possible for R rated movies.

[Jedi Master Carr]

lol we are thinking the same thing. Still that is very different situation I think that was driven by the contraversy and the religious side of it.

[Master Yoghurt]

I think the controversy and the subject were important reasons it made so much money. But more to the point, if a movie receive enough publicity bad, good or whatever it will have positive effect on the box office. Thats why such a large portion of todays movie budgets are spent on marketing. The studios know it works.

As a sidenote, I actually did see Passions for the first time today, and thought it was awful in several perspectives. Big thumb down from me.

[CMJ]

I can't believe I forgot about TPOTC. That was truly a "perfect storm" of factors though. It's almost like trying to compare the BO run of Titanic to normal movies.

TPOTC was just a wierd situation.

[Madmartigan]

I haven't seen Passions either, I an just not that religious but with all the hype it got I do plan on seeing it when it hits the dollar theatres. So without the hype and marketing I wouldn't have ever seen it, granted I am waiting for a dollar theatre to see it but they still are getting my money through hype.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I guess we will have to see how Troy holds up next weekend. How much do you think Shrek 2 will effect it? It shouldn't but who knows.

Also according to Mojo Troy made over 54 million overseas so it took in 100 for the weekend I bet it still makes 500 million WW so this is no flop.

[Master Yoghurt]

Shrek is not the Achilles heel of Troy :) Two very different movies. Big drops seem to be the trend right now though, and that saturday result was discouraging. We may see Troy fall 50% or more..

[Madmartigan]

Hmmm well I think you can expect at least a %40 drop for Troy next weekend, I don't think Shrek will take too much of its business as one is a Action?Adventure War Epic and the other is a Family movie, two entirely different genres and two entirely different MPAA ratings

but if Troy can just take a %40 drop I think they will have to consider that a success instead of the %60 Van Helsing suffered

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Actuals

1 Troy 46.87
2 Van Helsing 20.73
3 Mean Girls 10.18
4 Man On Fire 5.10
5 Breakin' All The Rules 5.09
6 13 Going On 30 4.11
7 New York Minute 3.81
8 Laws Of Attraction 2.01
9 Kill Bill Vol. 2 1.63
10 Envy 1.04
11 Godsend 1.03

[Marcus Telcontar]

That's a terrible start for something as hyped as Troy. And the drop off on Sturday, the day it should have played the best is also worrying. Thjat's the sign of a movie which wont have strong legs.

[CMJ]

According to the final numbers Troy made practically the same amount on Saturday vs Friday, basically like Van Helsing. At least it didn't drop. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually I take it a good thing that the estimates were low about a million, usually that is a good sign. Marcus read the rest of this thread I think some of "us" (including myself) overhyped Troy box office ability, CMJ was the only smart one here.

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend winners
1. ReaperFett 87.14% - 15 bonus points
2. Marcus 84.84% - 10 points
3. CMJ 82.23% - 5 points


Movie order points:
Everyone gets 5 bonus points for getting top 3 right


Weekend Accuracy Table
ReaperFett: 87.14%
Marcus: 84.84%
CMJ: 82.23%
Master Yoghurt: 79.94%
Asudak Jasra: 77.45%
Madmartigan: 74.89%
Jedi Master Carr: 67.50%


Season Scoretable
Position - Name - Streak - Bonus Points - Total Score

1. ReaperFett: 76.96 - 87.14 (+35) = 1676
2. Marcus: 75.88 - 84.84 (+25) = 1632.2
3. CMJ: 72.25 - 82.23 (+10) = 1554.8
4. Master Yoghurt: 73.82 - 79.94 (+15) = 1552.6
5. Madmartigan: 73.07 - 74.89 (+5) = 1484.6
6. Asudak Jasra: 67.07 - 77.45 (+5) = 1450.2
7. Jedi Master Carr: 71.13 - 67.50 (+5) = 1391.3
8. Rasha Vill: 75.88 (+5) = 763.8
9. Ryan Pode: 61.30 = 613

[Master Yoghurt]

According to the final numbers Troy made practically the same amount on Saturday vs Friday, basically like Van Helsing. At least it didn't drop.

Yeah, but Van Helsing dropped 59.9% in the following weekend, so thats probably not a good benchmark if youre hoping for Gladiator legs :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well hopefully Troy doesn't drop like VH. VH also was off by almost 2 million, the wrong way, estimate wise so I think this a good sign. I think Troy might only drop like 40%.

[CMJ]

The weekday numbers should give us an idea.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah should give us a good hint of what is to come. I hope it has a better hold I really liked the movie, hate it to see it have drops like VH.

[ReaperFett]

But...I NEVER LEAD! :eek

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL you do this time :)