Box Office Contest weekend 1 Picks Due by Saturday 9AM

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay here is the Summer contest, here are the rules

Rules SWFANS Box Office Contest Summer 2004 (this is a draft and subject to change)

Period of contest: 7th of May - 6th of September

1. How to play: Each weekend, there will be 10 movies for you to predict the weekend
gross. Predict how much each film will make. To make sure people don’’t make the same
predictions, post your dollar figures to the nearest ten thousand, for example "25.58M" (25
million 580 thousand).

2. Points: Your points will be calculated based on your average percentage accuracy of
your predictions compared to the actual weekend results. The percentage will be be turned
into points. 75% overall accuracy makes 75 points that week. If you like to see how the
percentage is calculated, or verify that your points are correct, try this tool:
http://www.boxofficefactor.com/calculate/

The formula is as follows: 1 - (Difference between your Prediction and Actual Box Office
Gross / Actual Box Office Gross)

3. Weekend winners. Each week, we will post the results and percentage accuracy of every
player. The player with the best result, will be determined weekend winner. There will also
be a tally of the season totals updated every week.

4. Bonus Points There will also be Bonus points, here is how that works
The Price is Right" - bonus points for extreme accuracy. 50 bonus points for achieving 95%
average accuracy any weekend

Movie Order Points (the best score applies into bonus):
- 30 points for getting top 10 movie order right
- 10 points for getting top 5 movie order right.
- 5 points for getting top 3 movie order right

Weekend Winners - bonus points for best accuracy during a normal weekend
1st 15
2nd 10
3rd 5

- Bonus weekends - bonus points for being the most accurate:
1st - 30 points
2nd - 20
3rd - 15
4th - 10
5th - 5

4 bonus weekends:
* Memorial Day; 28 May - 31st of May.
* Harry Potter weekend; 4th-6th June. Accuracy bonus for Harry Potter
* Fourth of July weekend 30th June to 4th of July
* Labor Day Weekend 3rd of September to 6th of September - bonus points x 3 (90 points for
1st, 60 points for second etc)

* Finish Line - last weekend of contest, Labor Day wekend - all bonus points are tripled!



5. Season winner. The 5 best weekend results are added up for every player into a final
season score. The player with the highest season score can call him/herself SWFans
Summer Box Office Champion 2004 and wins instant fame and glory (being worshipped by
the all the BO forum posters) + the choice of a 6 month free "Supporter" account (6 month
extension if already a supporter) or a @sw-fans.net email address.

6. Deadline: All predictions must be in by saturday 9 am EST every weekend. Certain
weekends, a special deadline may apply. Please make sure your predictions are in before
the deadline, however, we may look the other way if the estimates are not yet made public
and/or it is obvious such results have not been seen.

7. Who can play? Anyone can play. You may enter or exit the contest at any time or post
predictions whenever you like, as long it is within the deadline. However, maximum
participation increases your chances of a high score at the final tally, so it is recommended
to participate as often as possible. In order to contest for the Box office Champion title
(and the prize), you need to participate for a minimum of 5 weekends. Failing that, you
could still boast a nice season accuracy or be a weekend champion..

8. The winner: The player with the most points at the end of contest, wins instant fame and glory
(being worshipped by the all the BO forum posters) AND the winner of the contest gets his/her
choice of a 6 month free "Suporter" account (6 month extension if already a supporter) or a @sw-fans.net email address.


And here are the ten movies to pick just copy this and put your numbers in it

0 VAN HELSING $0.0
0 NEW YORK MINUTE $0.0
0 MEAN GIRLS $0.0
0 MAN ON FIRE $0.0
0 13 GOING ON 30 $0.0
0 GODSEND $0.0
0 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $0.0
0 ENVY $0.0
0 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $0.0
0 THE PUNISHER $0.0

[CMJ]

1. Van Helsing - 54.02M
2. New York Minute - 14.11M
3. Mean Girls - 12.59M
4. Man on Fire - 9.52M
5. 13 Going On 30 - 5.53M
6. Godsend - 3.84M
7. Laws of Attraction - 3.55M
8. Envy - 3.26M
9. Kill Bill Volume 2 - 2.87M
10. The Punisher - 1.85M

[Master Yoghurt]

Ok, time for another box office contest! :)

The 2 big openers are Van Helsing in 3,574 theaters and New York Minute at 3,006 theaters. Van Helsing is a big budget Vampyre flick with great special effects and looks to be the first blockbuster of the summer. Van Helsing is expected to some biiiig numbers, but the reviews are mixed and below average. The awareness level is very high though. New York Minute seems like one of those teenage comedies and its starring the Olsen Twins. Looks bleh to me, but I am not the target audience.

Here are some info about those 2 movies..

Van Helsing
Distributor: Universal
Running Time: 2 hrs. 10 min
MPAA Rating: PG-13
Production budget: $160 million (!)
Trailer: http://www.apple.com/trailers/universal/van_helsing/trailer/
Rotten Tomatoes: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/VanHelsing-1132255/

New York Minute
Distributor: Warner Bros
Running Time: 1 hrs. 26 min
MPAA Rating: PG
Trailer: http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/new_york_minute/
Rotten tomatoes: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/NewYorkMinute-1132243/

As a guide, I also compiled the box office predictions of the 'experts'. So far, these are Box Office Karma (BOK), Box Office Report (BOR), Box Office Guru (BOG), Lees Movie Info (LMI). BOG and LMI only did the top 5.

BOK - BOR - BOG - LMI

Van Helsing: 47.7 - 54 - 55 - 44.2
New York Minute: 17.1 - 14 - 14 - 8.9
Mean Girls: 11.7 - 12.5 - 13 - 13.4
Man on Fire: 9.0 - 9.5 - 9 - 9.1
13 Going On 30: 5.4 - 5.5 - 5 - 5.1
Laws of Attraction: 3.6 -3.8
Godsend: 3.3 - 3.5
Kill Bill Volume 2: 3.3 - 3.2
Envy: 2.7 - 2.8
The Punisher: 1.8 - 1.8

This is what happened last weekend:
1 Mean Girls $24,432,195 NEW
2 Man on Fire $15,012,405 -34%
3 13 Going on 30 $9,876,246 -53.1%
4 Godsend $6,800,617 NEW
5 Laws of Attraction $6,728,905 NEW
6 Envy $6,160,886 NEW
7 Kill Bill Vol. 2 $5,858,536 -43.7%
8 The Punisher $3,499,450 -44.3%
9 Home on the Range $2,306,510 -35.4%
10 Scooby-Doo 2 $2,289,484 -33%

and these are wednesday numbers:

1. Mean Girls / $ 891,119 / -18,1% / $ 27,603,991
2. Man on Fire / $ 861,834 / -15,5% / $ 47,340,423
3. Kill Bill: Vol. 2 / $ 555,000 / -13,7% / $ 54,526,000
4. 13 Going On 30 / $ 476,325 / -17,1% / $ 36,677,849
5. Laws of Attraction / $ 433,000 / -10,5% / $ 8,130,000
6. Godsend / $ 367,000 / -16,2% / $ 8,115,000
7. Envy / $ 290,209 / -17,1% / $ 7,211,646
8. The Punisher / $ 276,000 / -12,7% / $ 30,664,000
9. The Passion of the Christ / $ 134,537 / -7,7% / $ 367,114,842
10. Hellboy / $ 112,084 / -11,2% / $ 57,912,884
11. Bobby Jones, Stroke of Genius / $ 105,000 / -8,7% / $ 1,588,000
12. Walking Tall / $ 97,868 / -9% / $ 43,103,669
13. Home on the Range / $ 97,444 / -1,8% / $ 45,915,558

[Marcus Telcontar]

I'm off racing this weekend, no time to think. BOK for me

[Madmartigan]

1 VAN HELSING $60.01
2 NEW YORK MINUTE $14.77
3 MEAN GIRLS $10.98
4 MAN ON FIRE $9.02
5 13 GOING ON 30 $4.99
6 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $3.62
7 GODSEND $0.03.51
8 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $3.12
9 ENVY $2.88
10 THE PUNISHER $1.79

[Asudak Jasra]

1 VAN HELSING $56.31M
2 NEW YORK MINUTE $22.52M
3 MEAN GIRLS $11.35M
4 MAN ON FIRE $7.43M
5 13 GOING ON 30 $4.76M
6 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $4.32M
7 ENVY $3.88M
8 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $3.25M
9 GODSEND $2.72M
10 THE PUNISHER $2.12M

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 VAN HELSING $65.47
2 NEW YORK MINUTE $15.66
3 MEAN GIRLS $13.22
4 MAN ON FIRE $8.71
5 13 GOING ON 30 $5.11
6 GODSEND $4.01
7 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $3.76
8 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $3.14
9 ENVY $2.75
10 THE PUNISHER $1.99

[Master Yoghurt]

1. Van Helsing: $45.55
2. Mean Girls: $10.51
3. Man on Fire: $9.51
4. New York Minute: $9.11
5. 13 Going On 30: $4.51
6. Godsend: $3.91
7. Laws of Attraction: $3.81
8. Kill Bill Volume 2: $3.51
9. Envy: $2.81
10. The Punisher: $1.81

[Master Yoghurt]

For Marcus, here are BOKs numbers:

1. Van Helsing: 47.7
2. New York Minute: 17.1
3. Mean Girls: 11.7
4. Man on Fire: 9.0
5. 13 Going On 30: 5.4
6. Laws of Attraction: 3.6
7. Godsend: 3.3
8. Kill Bill Volume 2: 3.3
9. Envy: 2.7
10. The Punisher: 1.8

[Master Yoghurt]

Here are thursday numbers (useful for calculating drop offs):

1. MEAN GIRLS $793,219 -11%
2. MAN ON FIRE $774,900 -10.1%
3. 13 GOING ON 30 $385,433 -19.1%
4. LAWS OF ATTRACTION $326,000 -22.4%
5.GODSEND $348,000 -12.6%
6. KILL BILL VOL. 2 $344,000 -13.4%
7. ENVY $250,141 -13.8%
8. THE PUNISHER $261,000 -7.4%
9. THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST $127,037 -5.6%
10. HELLBOY $115,243 -5.6%

[Rasha Vill]

1. Van Helsing: 47.7
2. New York Minute: 17.1
3. Mean Girls: 11.7
4. Man on Fire: 9.0
5. 13 Going On 30: 5.4
6. Laws of Attraction: 3.6
7. The Punisher: 3.3
8. Kill Bill Volume 2: 3.3
9. Envy: 2.7
10. Godsend: 1.8

[ReaperFett]

THINK I'm doing this right :)


1 Van Helsing 44.99
2 Mean Girls 14.99
3 New York Minute 9.99
4 Man on Fire 8.99
5 13 Going on 30 5.99
6 Laws of Attraction 3.99
7 Kill Bill Vol. 2 3.98
8 Godsend 2.99
9 Envy 2.49
10 The Punisher 1.99

[Jedi Master Carr]

Hey Rasha could you change your numbers just a bit, they are the same as Marcus. If you could do that it be great.

[Ryan Pode]

1 VAN HELSING $34.34
2 NEW YORK MINUTE $12.55
3 MAN ON FIRE $7.77
4 13 GOING ON 30 $6.50
5 MEAN GIRLS $5.02
6 GODSEND $4.90
7 LAWS OF ATTRACTION $4.44
8 KILL BILL VOL. 2 $3.90
9 ENVY $2.67
10 THE PUNISHER $1.55

Too many numbers for me.

[Master Yoghurt]

Friday estimates:

VAN HELSING 19.40
MEAN GIRLS 4.87
MAN ON FIRE 2.35
NEW YORK MINUTE 2.14
13 GOING ON 30 1.71
LAWS OF ATTRACTION 1.09
GODSEND .88
KILL BILL VOL 2 .86
ENVY .84
THE PUNISHER .36

[Master Yoghurt]

Van Helsing: Very impressive result! It should make more than 50. I dont think it will hit 60m though, because of bad WOM a likely poor weekend multiplier. Maybe in the lower 50ies. I suspect it will drop like a rock next weekend.

NYM: Ouch. Even worse than I thought. Good thing I sensed a bomb here

Mean Girls: Looks to hold strong!

Summer box office season has begun! :)

[Master Yoghurt]

Looking at my numbers and comparing with friday numbers, it looks like my predictions for the most part were much too inaccuarate for my liking. But thats ok, its first weekend and I intend to do better next weekend.

The box office calculator is updated with weekend projections:
http://www.boxofficefactor.com/calculate/

Here is my estimated score based on those projections:

Van Helsing - (45.55 / 52.4) -- Accuracy: 86.93%
Mean Girls - (10.51 / 14.9) -- Accuracy: 70.54%
Man On Fire - (9.51 / 8.4) -- Accuracy: 86.79%
New York Minute - (9.11 / 7.3) -- Accuracy: 75.21%
13 Going on 30 - (4.51 / 5.2) -- Accuracy: 86.73%
Laws of Attraction - (3.81 / 3.6) -- Accuracy: 94.17%
Kill Bill Vol. 2 - (3.51 / 3.2) -- Accuracy: 90.31%
Godsend - (3.91 / 2.8) -- Accuracy: 60.36%
Envy - (2.81 / 2.6) -- Accuracy: 91.92%
The Punisher - (1.81 / 1.3) -- Accuracy: 60.77%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 80.37%

New Release: 81.07%
Still in Theater: 80.20%

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am not sure if Van Helsing will have really bad WOM I know alot of people who liked it. It should get up to 150. Its major problem is that there is a lot of competition in the next three weeks. Shoot May is just insane, you got one hit movie after another. It wont' get easy until June when you just got Harry Potter and then a series of films which I think will flop (Garfield, Around the World in 80 Days, and The stepford Wives). Man and Ny Minute did way less than I thought I think it shows the Olsen twins aren't stars.

[Master Yoghurt]

I guess Van Helsing is one of those "love it or hate it" movies. If you just turn off your brain for a couple of hours and enjoy the show, it is probably enjoyable as the popcorn flick it is :)

I think where NYM failed, it had strong competition from Mean Girls which quite frankly looks like a much better movie. This just shows being stars on TV is no guarantee for box office success in the movies. I dont think the Olsen Twins can hold a movie on their own yet. The other problem, the movie seems to have a really small target audience. The trailer looked meh too, I guess even for the younger crowd. To sumarise, NYM just looks bad.

And youre right, BO is reall getting insane now. Look at this schedule... O_o

May 7th Van Helsing
May 14th Troy
May 21st Shrek 2
May 28th TDAT
June 4th Harry Potter
June 11th Riddick

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I don't think Riddick is going to do that well, and it is no competition for Harry Potter anyways different demos. Also June 11th you have three films coming out but the other two will bomb, IMO Garfield (which looks horrible) and Stepford wives (which I don't think anybody cares about seeing a remake).

[Master Yoghurt]

Still, except for maybe Riddick, I can see 50 million + opening weekends for all those other movies. This got to be one of the most explosive starts of the summer in a long time!

And Garfield, they made a movie about that? Good grief. I just looked at the trailer. I am not sure it will bomb though. Underperform maybe. I can see people streaming to see this kind of movie.

And the Stepford Wives? What is that movie about? :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't see Garfield being that popular in the Us what is worse this film has been moved 5 times. It was suppose to debut last weekend of June till Spiderman2 was moved, then moved to May, before Shrek2 was annnounced, then middle of June now the weekend after Harry Potter which will kill it. I think the Studio knows how bad it is and is just putting it behind Potter to say look what is was up against. Stepford Wives well is a remake of a 70's film where husbands make their wives perfect in this small town they make them into robots The trailer looks awful though it looks like a spoof more than anything else. And yes I agree with you heck I think we could have 3 straight weekends of a film making over 60 Maybe 4
I think Troy will make around 60 first weekend
Shrek 2 70-80
DAT 65-80
Harry Potter 75-95

That is a big four week stretch biggest I have ever seen.

[Madmartigan]

Hmmm yes there is a good movie coming out every week tell august but its the summer boxoffice season, i want 2 good movies a week

Heck I saw 3 movies last weekend (granted only 1 was any good), I was expecting to want to see 2-3 movies a week for the next 3 months.

There were 2 movies this weekend, but there is no way I will ever see New York Minute. Heck Shrek has zero other movies coming out its week and Troy only has a Jamie Foxx movie to contend with.

You are forgetting I Robot on the July 18th that should easily do 50 mil, and i got high hopes for the Bourne Supremecy since I liked the first one so much. Did anyone see the new Catwoman trailer, wow does that movie look bad.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I stoped at Harry Potter I don't know the release dates past Spiderman 2 very well. To me June is a crap fest besides Harry Potter and Teriminal. I don't think Riddick will do that well, it could do 100 I guess but not more than that. The rest of the month looks bad most flops and disapointments. And yes Catwoman looks bad I think its between that and Around the World and 80's for the title of the biggest bomb of the summer. I don't think there is anything opening up against Harry either (who would want to), I think there is another movie opening up on Memorial Day Weekend, can't remember what though.

[Madmartigan]

Well technically Spiderman 2 comes out in June as well, June 30th to be exact they bumped it release day to a wednesday. Heres July's releases

July 2nd
Seducing Dr Lewis (this is a movie that has no hope being released spideys weekend)

July 9th
King Arthur (this looks hit or miss)
Ancorman (Will is funny this might do better than Arthur)
2 Brothers

July 16th
I Robot
A Cinderella Story (Hillary Duff Movies, lord help us)

July 23rd
Bourne Supremecy

July 30th
Catwoman


Blade Trinity was suppose to come out in august but they moved it to decemeber, Alien vs Predator is still scheduled for August.

[Jedi Master Carr]

You also have the Manchurian Candidate and the Village opening July 30th. July looks stronger than June. About Spidey I keep forgetting they moved that move up, keeping thinking July 2nd.

[Master Yoghurt]

I don't see Garfield being that popular in the Us what is worse this film has been moved 5 times. It was suppose to debut last weekend of June till Spiderman2 was moved, then moved to May, before Shrek2 was annnounced, then middle of June now the weekend after Harry Potter which will kill it. I think the Studio knows how bad it is and is just putting it behind Potter to say look what is was up against. Stepford Wives well is a remake of a 70's film where husbands make their wives perfect in this small town they make them into robots The trailer looks awful though it looks like a spoof more than anything else.

I think though, HP and Garfield are different enough for Garfield to have a market of its own. The CG animation may be enough to pull people to watch it. I agree with you though that HP will be dominating. It may keep the #1 spot into its second weekend. Not having read any of the books, I think the third chapter looks more appealing (to me) than the 2 previous ones.

Riddic on the other hand got a $120M budget and I allready seen people getting excited about it. I think Riddick is the only serious contender for HP that weekend. Stepford Wives is hard to judge from the trailer IMO. Low awareness level may be the thing which kills this one. Still, I think it sounds like an interesting concept.

All in all, I think its safe to say that particular weekend will be very hot in terms of box office traffic..

[Madmartigan]

I thought Stepford wives was some chick flick from seeing the name, then I saw the trailer for it and now I am really excited to see it. I might have seen Garfield until i saw the trailer, now you couldn't drug me and drag me to it, it looks horrible.

I am excited about Riddick, even though I have never seen Pitch Black. I think I will rent Pitch Black before I go see Riddick.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah Harry Potter gets better, the third book is considered by many fans the best. Also the series gets darker as the books go along, less childlike and more adult, IMO. This one looks like the best so far, the new director has done a good job with the actors especially the kids, at least that is what I think from the trailers. I think Harry will stay #1 two weekends in row, I thought it could be three but they moved terminal up so I think that will change now. About Riddick, I am just not conviced of Disel's star power he has had now 2 movies which he was the star, one did okay ( XXX 130) the other flopped (A Man Apart less than 50) I think there is a cult following for this movie but I don't think it will open beyond the mid to upper 30's right now. Stepford Wives I guess I have low opinion of this film because it has been done here before and most adults (anybody over 35 at least) know what it is about, this will hurt since its kind of been there done that. And I don't think teenagers will rush off to see it. So I see this underperforming.

[Madmartigan]

Also I just saw Thunderbirds has been moved up to July 30th, and Catwoman moved back a week to the 23rd. And let us not forget Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle from the director of Dude Where's My Car? that comes out on the 30th *snicker*

[Master Yoghurt]

I really look froward to I Robot. I think that one will be huge. Exciting concept, high budget special effects movies always do well. But will it be Minority Report well or in the 50m + region? I dont know yet.

The one movie I look forward to most is probably Alien vs Predator. From the footage I seen so far, it looks like they may have avoided the trap of making it too cheesy, and manage to bring back some of that claustrophic creepy atmosphere which made the first 2 alien movies a success. At least I can hope.. :)

King Arthur is a must see movie for me and probably a lot of other people just due to the fact its such a great myth.

[ReaperFett]

I look forward to King Arthur due to Clive Owen.

Garfield will do well like Scooby Doo IMO.

Stepford Wives I don't think is that big budget. I'm just glad it's out soon because then Oz will be doing Brian Michael Bendis' Powers :D

Catwoman I think will open big (Morbid curiosity) and drop HUGE (People realise it IS that bad) :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Maybe Scooby 2 That one did half what first one did. I think kids are that stupid plus Garfield is not as popular as Scooby. Plus Harry will hurt it there are more kids into that than Garfield. Besides it just looks horrible worse than Scooby Doo, if you ask me.

[Madmartigan]

You didn't like Scooby Carr, I thought they were fun, even if a little silly kinds of movies.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Nope I just found it to be a bad movie with awful actors. Part of it is I can't stand Prince and Gellar they are two of the worst actors out there, especially Prince.

[Master Yoghurt]

Maybe Scooby 2 That one did half what first one did. I think kids are that stupid plus Garfield is not as popular as Scooby. Plus Harry will hurt it there are more kids into that than Garfield. Besides it just looks horrible worse than Scooby Doo, if you ask me.

I dont think Garfield can possibly be worse than Scooby though..

Lets review, shall we? :) We have atrocious acting, a surreal plot with more holes than a truckload of swiss cheese, home video editing, dialogue at the intellectual level of an episode of Beavis & Butthead, an absurd screenplay, special effects looking like they came from a haunted mansion theme park ride, some reeeeally cheesy art decor, costumes etc.. and worst of all, I was exclusively laughing AT the production rather than the intended jokes. The only character worth watching in the whole movie was played by Rowan Atkinson, and he just had a couple of minutes of screen time. IMO, that says a lot. In fact, I'd say Scooby, this terribly CGed dog provides more character depth than the rest of the assembled cast! Leaf thin depth that is.

Can Garfield make 50m+? Probably not, but 30M may be within range. The reason it probably wont make as much as the first scooby movie, it does not have the same fan base.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will open poorly low 20's to high teens. the trailer was bad, and the fan base isn't that large. Also I think the acting might be worse than Scooby there isn't anybody in it Jennifer Love Hewit can't act, and the guy playing Jon, isn't a great actor either. But I guess we will have to wati and see how it plays out.

[Master Yoghurt]

Saturday numbers:

1. Van Helsing $19,500,000 +0.5%
2. Mean Girls $6,003,000 +23.3%
3. Man On Fire $3,562,000 +51.6%
4. New York Minute $2,350,000 +9.8%
5. 13 Going On 30 $2,330,000 +36.2%
6. Laws Of Attraction $1,576,000 +44.5%
7. Godsend $1,073,000 +21.8%
8. Kill Bill $1,216,000 +40.4%
9. Envy $1,027,000 +22.7%
10. Punisher $490,000 +36.1%

Weekend estimates:

1. Van Helsing - $54,215,000 - NEW - $54,215,000
2. Mean Girls - $14,000,000 - -42.7% - $42,397,000
3. Man on Fire - $7,900,000 - -47.4% - $56,016,000
4. New York Minute - $6,240,000 - NEW - $6,240,000
5. 13 Going on 30 - $5,500,000 - -44.3% - $42,563,000
6. Laws of Attraction - $3,475,000 - -48.4% - $11,889,000
7. Kill Bill Vol. 2 - $3,023,000 - -48.4% - $57,793,000
8. Godsend - $2,7000,000 - -60.3% - $11,273,000
9. Envy - $2,600,000 - -57.8% - $10,062,000
10. The Punisher - $1,200,000 - -65.7% - $32,145,000
11. Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed - $1,000,000 - -56.3% - $81,029,000
12. Home on the Range - $1,000,000 - -56.6% - $47,009,000
13. The Passion of the Christ - $726,000 - -48.4% - $367,968,000
14. Ella Enchanted - $670,000 - -62.1% - $20,709,000
15. Hellboy - $580,000 - -68.6% - $58,608,000
16. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - $551,000 - -31.7% - $31,708,000

[Master Yoghurt]

Well, I have to say. Except for Van Helsing, it was a terrible weekend for just about every movie. Look at those drop offs..

[Jedi Master Carr]

Mean Girls did okay but other than those top two everthing else just did plain bad. I think it is because everbody went to Van Helsing. And if those estimates are right CMJ is going to get a good score on Van Helsing.

[Master Yoghurt]

Aye, I think CMJ did pretty good overall actually.

And yeah, I think everyone rushed to see VH. I can see something else from these drop offs though. This is the time of the year when movies open big and drop fast. Watch out for a Van Helsing drop in the high 50'ies, possible 60% next weekend. Troy will trounce on the competition.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Van Helsing will drop in the low 50's actually, if it had opened bigger I would say it would have an even bigger drop.

[CMJ]

I think Troy will play more like Gladiator. What I mean is since it's an R rated period flick, I expect a 40M+ opening(not a MASSIVE first weekend) that ends up playing well the whole summer.

We shall see though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Troy will open bigger than that, might only be in the mid 50's but I think more people have heard about Troy at this point than heard about Gladiator when it came out, I think that is the big difference right now.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I think the big difference is the awareness level. I and many others heard about Troy a year ago and looked forward to it as the big movie of the year (except some people prefer spiderman II or HP).

[Jedi Master Carr]

I say its the third biggest movie of the year though I think it will finish 4th in the summer behind Spiderman 2, Harry Potter, and Shrek 2. I think that will mainly be the case because of the R rating.

[CMJ]

Awareness for Gladiator was off the charts. I remember people over predicted its first weekend BIG time. Afterwards we all wondered if it was going to flop - but it showed great legs.

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Actuals

1. Van Helsing - 51.75
2. Mean Girls - 13.68
3. Man On Fire - 8.24
4. New York Minute - 5.96
5. 13 Going On 30 - 5.82
6. Laws of Attraction - 3.68
7. Kill Bill Vol. 2 - 3.02
8. Godsend - 2.79
9. Envy - 2.51
10. Home On The Range - 1.25

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend winners:
1. ReaperFett 76.96% - 15 bonus points
2. Marcus: 75.88% - 10 points
3. Rasha Vill: 75.88% - 5 points

Movie order points:
Master Yoghurt (top 5) - 10 points

ReaperFett: 76.96%
Marcus: 75.88%
Rasha Vill: 75.88%
Master Yoghurt: 73.82%
Madmartigan: 73.07%
CMJ: 72.25%
Jedi Master Carr: 71.13%
Asudak Jasra: 67.07%
Ryan Pode: 61.30%

[Madmartigan]

Hmmm thats what I get for hoping Van Helsing would do better than it did. You know who I blame, I blame all the producers who continually pronounced Van wrong, if they had pronounced it Vahn it would have clearly made 60 million.

So I demand a recount, adjusting Van Helsing's total to the correct amount had they pronounced the word right. Where do I put my appeal ;)

[Master Yoghurt]

Here :D

http://www.universalstudios.com/homepage/html/contact_us/contact_form.cgi?email_id=21

[Madmartigan]

This kind of thing wouldn't happen if I lived in Florida.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I still think Troy has bigger awareness, I think its more because of having Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom, etc in the cast really that is why it is more know. Gladiator just had Crowe who wasn't a star yet.

[ReaperFett]

I still just find it funny that Orlando is playing Paris. Just call him Disney ;)