Early Oscar talk

[Marcus Telcontar]

By the looks of those noms, Cold Muntain is dead and gone as a real Oscar contender. I think it will get a BP nom, but that's it with a few technicals.

I'm really starting to see this as a three way race - ROTK, Mystic river and Lost in Translation. Seabuiscut as the bolter, Cold Mountain as the final place in the Noms.

For director.... the wrold will end if Jackson doesnt win, with all the outraged LOTR fans causing a riot.

[CMJ]

Actually I'm seeing a 3 way race between Sb, MR, and ROTK - not LiT. The last 2 spots will most likely be a combo of these 3 movies.

Lost in Translation
Master and Commander
Cold Mounatain

[Marcus Telcontar]

I dont know about SB - it just does not seem to genuinely deserve to win..... I can see a nomintation, not a win.

[CMJ]

It's a real Americana type story. It appeals to an older demographic(though obviously younger folks like myself enjoyed it) and the average age of Oscar voters is like 55. The horse was running in the late 30's - which means it's possible a number of the most senior voters probably listened to the races on radio.

If it gets a director nomination as well as a picture nom - I believe it's ROTK's toughest test.

[Droo]

As much as I would love to see Depp recieve the Best Actor accolade, I think it will go to Bill Murray and frankly, I have absolutely no problem with that whatsoever.

Best Picture and Director - ROTK and Peter Jackson. If it goes to anybody or anything else then, despite the other awesome contenders, there is no justice in this world.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
It's a real Americana type story. It appeals to an older demographic(though obviously younger folks like myself enjoyed it) and the average age of Oscar voters is like 55. The horse was running in the late 30's - which means it's possible a number of the most senior voters probably listened to the races on radio.

If it gets a direcor nomination as well as a picture nom - I believe it's ROTK's toughest test.

It's still NOT the best movie of the year, no matter if the story appeals. What you are suggesting would suck, because of this reason. whilst I believe a convincing argument can eb made that ROTK is in fact the best movie of the year and that the Acadamy will reward ROTK not just for this but the previous two LOTR movies, you would be pushing poodoo uphill to even get close to a convincing argument SB deserves the big awards.

edit - time for an officail Oscars thread me thinks. CMJ, like to do the honours and break these posts into it?

[ReaperFett]

I still wonder if CGI might affect Jackson getting director. Like why Serkis had no chance for an Oscar, having a lot of work done for the director might harm it. IMO.

[CMJ]

Okay here's the deal Marcus. You straight out saying it isn't the best picture of the year is INSANE. I swear that some people(like my parents and grandparents for instance) would probably vote for it. What you personally believe is only a small factor.

The Academy has 6000+ members. I bet when those 6k members vote for BP there will be 25 movies or so that get mentions. The 5 most will get nominated for the prize. Once it's narrowed down to 5 it's really hard to say exactly what will happen. Every film will have a voting block - whether you believe it is the best or not.

Personally - Sb was one of the best films of the year. But what's *really* important when handicapping the Oscar race is...I can TOTALLY see people voting for it.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Can you convincingly tell me it's genuinely better than the other possible nominations? In the past, I've hit LOTR movies upside of head where they deserved it. This time around, I'm struggling to find somethign to be justifiably critical. FOTR, TTT have been great in their own right, but ROTK simply went above either.

Where I'm coming from is that I can see Mystic River or Lost in Translation beign viable alternatives and, from what I've seen and read, either are genuinely deserving. Seabusciut just isnt anything really new, nor compelling - to me anyway.

[CMJ]

*sigh*

I don't think it's better than ROTK, but I know those that would. I think it's WAY better than 'Cold Mountain'. I enjoyed it more than M&C. I have yet to see LIT. I go back and forth on whether I enjoyed it more than MR.

Uhhh what other movies do you want me to bring up? ;) Suffice it to say, I believe it's a contender. It's a story/movie that inspires people. This is a powerful thing.

I don't think it WILL WIN. But I think it CAN. ;) At least if it gets BP and BD noms.

[Figrin D'an]

Originally posted by Marcus Elessar
Seabusciut just isnt anything really new, nor compelling - to me anyway.

That's the key, though. To you, it's no big deal... nothing to fuss over. To some others, especially those whom remember when horse racing was a huge spectacle of pagentry, it can really strike a chord.

It's kind of important to remember that, for most of the first half of the 20th Century (even into the early 1960's), horse racing was one of the top spectator events in the US, along with baseball and boxing. It used to be a really, really big deal to go to the big three races (Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Preakness), or listen to the radio calls of those races. It has a way of reminding older folks of those times. Nostalgia can be very powerful when voting for a favorite film.

I don't think it was the best film of the year, but that's me. Like CMJ said though, I can see people voting for it, simply because of what it represents to them.

[CMJ]

Hell horseracing was even really big in the 70's. Had a bit of a resurgence when there were 3 Triple Crown winners. Mom still talks about how big a deal Secretariat was.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Look, I'm not debating it's nomination - I see from the various Oscar sites and the industry noms that it definatly is thought of well enough to gain a BP nom. I just honestly cant see it getting any further. I personally believe that ROTK would be in serious trouble IF Eastwood hadnt won Oscars before, no matter how good ROTK is.

Edit : Just as FYI, there a horse that has the same type of legend status that Seabuscuit has in Aust - Phar Lap. Interesting that.

[CMJ]

Yeah, and 'Phar Lap' is a helluva movie too. Actually Seabiscuit is not even considered one of the top 20 or so horses of our country's history - he just had a helluva story. Phar Lap on the other hand was just AMAZING.

But back to the BP race. There are definitely members of the Academy who can't identitfy with a fantasy movie. I can see alot of these older voters being swept up in nostalgia and voting for Sb instead of MR - or whatever else is nominated.

I still think ROTK will win. But if Sb has say 10 nominations - it's a threat. That's all I'm saying.

[Marcus Telcontar]

In what catagories could SB be nominated? Also, I'd be interested to hear what you think the number of Noms ROTK will get in total.

(Hijk) Phar Lap was an amazing horse, for sure. Best horse ever in australia, no argument from anyone. (end hijk)

[CMJ]

Likely nominations for Seabiscuit

Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Sound
Best Costumes
Best Cinematography
Best Art/Set Design
Best Editing
Best Director

If it gets an acting nomination and Sound Editing that would make 10.

I think ROTK gets 12. Everything FOTR got, except a supporting nod.

[Doc Milo]

Of course, there is one thing to take into account when considering RotK's chances of winning a Best Picture Oscar, and that is the Academy's historical bias against sci-fi/fantasy movies. To date, not a single SF/Fantasy has won an Oscar for best picture.

I think RotK has the best chance to do so since ANH, but I always keep that bias in the back of my mind when predicting whether or not a SF/Fantasy can actually take the award.

In this vein, it doesn't matter that RotK is the best picture and deserves to win. There is always an element that sees fantasy as nothing more than a special effects extravaganza -- thus, it will be awarded the technical awards, and be shunned for best picture. RotK has such an emotional and character driven storyline that this might help enough voters to look past that bias and vote for it. Here's hoping so.

[CMJ]

I think that this will be the year that the streak ends. This is based on the feeling and what I hear around town more than anything.

Good God, I sound like an LA Insider. :rolleyes

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by CMJ
I think that this will be the year that the streak ends. This is based on the feeling and what I hear around town more than anything.

Good God, I sound like an LA Insider. :rolleyes

Your not?

:p

Fantasy / Sc-fi also tends to be pretty poor IMO - movies like ANH and the LOTR series are very few and far between. In ROTk's favour is the charatcers and storyline drive, NOT it's effects, which however I might add are still incredible. But, the really big thing in it's favour is the fact is "Lets reward the series" factor. Critical awards and top ten lists dont count that factor. I suspect the Oscars will. The BP and director will not be viewed for ROTK alone, but for the entire three movies. That's where I believe ROTK has the real advantage.

Also, how many of the Acadamy are Tolkein nuts? I bet quite a few.

[JMK]

Originally posted by CMJ
Good God, I sound like an LA Insider. :rolleyes

Dude, you are an L.A. insider. :p

[CMJ]

Originally posted by JMK
Dude, you are an L.A. insider. :p

I live here. I'm not sure I really have the pulse of the town yet. ;)

Give me a few more years on that.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I side with Doc on this personally I think it won't win. I bet Mystic River wins Jackons may win BD and they may basically say here is your reward.

[CMJ]

The Academy gets alot of crap because they award "small movies that nobody has seen"...BUT look at this.

Chicago - 170.7M
A Beautiful Mind - 170.7M
Gladiator - 187.7M
American Beauty - 130.1M
Shakeaspeare in Love - 100.3M
Titanic - 600.8M
The English Patient - 78.7M
Breaveheart - 75.3M
Forrest Gump - 329.7M
Schindler's List - 96.1M


Mystic River - 54.8M

If you account for inflation I don't think MR is even within 30M of the lowest grossing BP winner. Therefore I doubt it's chances of a victory. Sb grossed 120M. Solid boxoffice sucess.

Everything needs to be taken into account when handicapping the races.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well before the Oscars nods The English Patient hadn't even made 50 million it made a 1/3 of its money because of the oscars. To me that is the only major example of a film that. Mystic River could get released and make another 30 million because of the Oscars. Also it is hard to judge some movies years ago may not have been hugly sucessful that won (it might be hard to find that out).

[CMJ]

Yes, but EP was a December release I believe. It also was a roll-out picture...did not have a huge ad campaign. It *peaked* for Oscar season.

MR on the other hand...opened in October. It's release it basically over. Basically it's this years 'L.A. Confidential'.

[Jedi Master Carr]

But if it does well in the Oscars I am sure their studio will release it. Of course this is all just my opinion.

[Jedieb]

I think ROTK has a chance to be the first Fantasy flick to take the best pic nod because it's already bucking certain Oscar trends. As fantasy/sci-fi trilogies progress, they get less and less critical and Oscar recognition. ROTK has already surpassed TTT in the critical realm and I think we'll see it outdo TTT in nominations. That should bode well for its BP chances.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I changed my mind partially - I WANT to see The Last Samurai nominated. GREAT film. Loved it.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Okay CMJ, what do you think now? Right now, i think the real only question is if ROTK will sweep, not wether it wins the big two. I thought the GG's were the more unlikely of award it could have won, but it did.

Jackson has to be a shoe in now for Best Director. ROTK has to be one of the shortest priced favorites ever. I'm fianlly optimistic.

I'll say ROTK is nominated for at least 12 and wins at least 10 if the sweep is genuinely on

[CMJ]

ROTK will be nominated for 12...and will win 7.

That's my prediction.