Producers Guild

[CMJ]

The PGA usually is a really good indicator of Academy taste. There noms came out this morning and here they are.

Cold Mountain (Miramax Films)
Albert Berger & Ron Yerxa
William Horberg
Sydney Pollack

The Last Samurai (Warner Bros.)
Edward Zwick & Marshall Herskovitz
Paula Wagner & Tom Cruise

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (New Line Cinema)
Barrie M. Osborne
Peter Jackson
Fran Walsh

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
(Twentieth Century Fox)
Samuel Goldwyn Jr.
Duncan Henderson
Peter Weir

Mystic River (Warner Bros.)
Robert Lorenz
Judie G. Hoyt
Clint Eastwood

Seabiscuit (Universal Pictures)
Kathleen Kennedy
Frank Marshall
Gary Ross

************

With six nominees one is surely to be left off...and most likely 2(usually they match up with 4 of the noms).

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't see both Master and Command and Last Samurai getting nominated heck neither could get nominated at this point.

[CMJ]

I think TLS is definitely the odd man out. It hasn't appeared in as many of the precursor awards. If Zwick is nominated by the DGA I may change my tune.

If 2 movies out of this list don't make it - it's gonna either be M&C or Sb. I think 'Lost in Translation' still gets in. The DGA should clear thngs up.

I think these 6 and LIT are the only movies in the running now. All other hopefuls are dead.

[Jedi Master Carr]

So you think In America is out then? I know it is getting huge raves and still some Oscar talk not sure what its chances are though.

[CMJ]

A week or two ago I was high on IA, but it didn't do well at the Golden Globes...it's not here. I think it'll score a screenplay nom and maybe some acting noms come Oscar morning.

If Sheridan recieves a DGA nomination tommorrow I may reconsider, but I think IA is dead.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I see I have a feeling the whole screener thing is hurting it and other independent films this year. Do you agree with that?

[CMJ]

Nah, not really. The studios ended up sending out screener tapes anyways. Some judge ruled against the AMPAS on it or something. I don't remember the details, but screeners did in fact go out to Academy members.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I thought I read there wasn't time for them to go out or something even with the ruling. But who knows. It does seem to me that the indies except for LIT aren't doing well in the big awards this year. Not sure if that means they aren't as good as in years past or what.

[CMJ]

The Indy's usually make their presence felt in the acting and writing categories. Maybe one breaks into the BP field in a normal year. In weak studio years you might get 2.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Maybe that is the difference this year then, which does make sense.

[imported_J'ktal Anajii]

M&C better not get picked over TLS, because M&C was laaaame in the way of plot and characters.

[CMJ]

Eh, can't really agree with you. M&C had great performances and I totally got into the story. That said I did think TLS was the better movie.

[imported_J'ktal Anajii]

Every twenty minutes or so, the charactes in M&C could come out of their carboard personalities and actually be human, but most of it felt stiff and uninteresting, not to mention unrealistic. The character interaction, that is, not the sets or special effects. Those were awesome.

[CMJ]

'Rings' wins PGA prize
Jackson, Walsh, Osborne take home Zanuck award

By VARIETY STAFF

New Line's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" tonight won the Producers Guild of America's top kudos.
Producers Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh and Barrie M. Osborne were recipients of the Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year, beating competition from Miramax's "Cold Mountain," Warner's "The Last Samurai" and "Mystic River," Fox's "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" and Universal's "Seabiscuit."

The win was not considered a surprise by attendees at tonight's kudosfest, held at the Century Plaza. Pic has grossed $316 million domestically since its release four weeks ago, and is widely tipped to break the $1 billion barrier in worldwide B.O.

Voting by about half the org's 2,000 members saw large-scale and high-profile dramas favored at the expense of smaller budget fare, sidestepping comedies and independent pics.

The PGA winners are considered an Oscar indicator, since the org includes a significant number of voters who are also members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences.

**************************

This was the 15th PGA ceremony. I think they're 10 for 14 in previous years(I'll verify that) as far as correlating with the Oscar BP. Obviously it appears that ROTK is in a commanding position now.

[Marcus Telcontar]

10 out of 14, eh?

what chances of a ROTK sweep?

[CMJ]

What's your opinion of a sweep? I bet ROTK wins 7 or 8. I doubt it wins 9+ awards.

[Syo]

The problem in my opinion is the academy doesn't like to honor certain types of movies or actors. The Last Samurai was one of the very best movies of last year and deserves a nomination for best picture but probably will not get one. I don't think Master and Commander deserves a nod.

[ReaperFett]

ROTK will win 6 IMO. Movie but not director, and then technicals.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will win director and not movie. Also how will the Globes factor into this? I have read the foreign press doesn't like the LOTR movies that much. So they might pick something different. How many times has a movie not won the Golden Globe and went on to win BP? I know Silence of the Lambs did it in 92 but not sure what else.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Syo
The problem in my opinion is the academy doesn't like to honor certain types of movies or actors. The Last Samurai was one of the very best movies of last year and deserves a nomination for best picture but probably will not get one. I don't think Master and Commander deserves a nod.

It's all about opinions though. I think it's unfair to say they don't like those kinds of movies . 'Dances with Wolves' had a very similar premise and won BP.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
I think it will win director and not movie. Also how will the Globes factor into this? I have read the foreign press doesn't like the LOTR movies that much. So they might pick something different. How many times has a movie not won the Golden Globe and went on to win BP? I know Silence of the Lambs did it in 92 but not sure what else.

I believe this will be the 61st GG ceremony. Over the past 60 years, 44 Oscar Best Pictures had won a Best Picture from the HFPA. The last time it happened that I remember was '95 when 'Braveheart' won the Oscar but didn't win either Globe category.

That said - if ROTK wins the PGA(which already has) and the DGA(which it probably will) I don't care what the HFPA does. ROTK will win BP. At this point the chances that it doesn't are less than 10 percent.

[Syo]

good question so i decided to research it

2002-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Chicago
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Hours
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Chicago

2001-
Academy Awards Best Picture: A Beautiful Mind
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: A Beautiful Mind
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Moulin Rogue


2000-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Gladiator
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Gladiator
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Almost Famous


1999-
Academy Awards Best Picture: American Beauty
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: American Beauty
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Toy Story 2


1998-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Shakespeare in Love
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Saving Private Ryan
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Shakespeare in Love


1997-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Titanic
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Titanic
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: As Good as it Gets


1996-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The English Patient
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The English Patient
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Evita


1995-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Braveheart
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Sense and Sensibility
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Babe


1994-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Forrest Gump
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Forrest Gump
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: The Lion King


1993-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Schindlers List
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Schindlers List
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Mrs. Doubtfire


1992-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Unforgiven
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Scent of a Woman
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: The Player


1991-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Silence of the Lambs
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Bugsy
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Beauty and the Beast


1990-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Dances with Wolves
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Dances with Wolves
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Greencard


1989-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Driving Miss Daisy
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Born on the Fourth of July
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Driving Miss Daisy


1988-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Rainman
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Rainman
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Working Girl


1987-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Last Emperor
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Last Emperor
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Hope and Glory


1986-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Platoon
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Platoon
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Hannah and her Sisters


1985-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Out of Africa
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Out of Africa
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Prizzi's Honor


1984-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Amadeus
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Amadeus
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Romancing the Stone


1983-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Terms of Endearment
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Terms of Endearment
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Yentl



1982-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Gandhi
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: E. T.: The Extra-Terrestrial
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Tootsie



1981-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Chariots of Fire
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: On Golden Pond
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Arthur


1980-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Ordinary People
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Ordinary People
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Coal Miners Daughter


1979-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Kramer Vs Kramer
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Kramer Vs Kramer
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Breaking Away


1978-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Deer Hunter
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Midnight Express
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Heaven Can Wait


1977-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Annie Hall
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Turning Point
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Goodbye Girl


1976-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Rocky
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Rocky
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: A Star is Born


1975-
Academy Awards Best Picture: One Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: One Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Sunshine Boys



1974-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Godfather Part II
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Chinatown
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: The Longest Yard



1973-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Sting
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Exorcist
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: American Graffitti



1972-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Godfather
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Godfather
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Cabaret


1971-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The French Connection
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The French Connection
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Fiddler on the Roof


1970-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Patton
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Love Story
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: M*A*S*H*


1969-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Midnight Cowboy
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Anne Of the Thousand Days
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: The Secret Of Santa Vittoria



1968-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Oliver
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Lion in Winter
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Funny Girl



1967-
Academy Awards Best Picture: In the Heat of the Night
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: In the Heat of the Night
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: The Graduate


1966-
Academy Awards Best Picture: A Man For All Seasons
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: A Man For All Seasons
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming


1965-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Sound of Music
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Doctor Zhivago
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: The Sound of Music


1964-
Academy Awards Best Picture: My Fair Lady
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Becket
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: My Fair Lady


1963-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Tom Jones
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Cardinal
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Tom Jones


1962-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Lawrence of Arabia
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Lawrence of Arabia
Golden Globe Best Picture Comedy: That Touch of Mink
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical: Meredith Willson's The Music Man


1961-
Academy Awards Best Picture: West Side Story
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Guns Of Navarone
Golden Globe Best Picture Comedy: A Majority of One
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical: West Side Story


1960-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Apartment
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Spartacus
Golden Globe Best Picture Comedy: The Apartment
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical: Song Without End — The Story Of Franz Liszt



1959-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Ben Hur
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Ben Hur
Golden Globe Best Picture Comedy: Some Like It Hot
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical: Porgy and Bess



1958-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Gigi
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Defiant Ones
Golden Globe Best Picture Comedy: Auntie Mame
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical: West Side Story


1957-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Bridge on the River Kwai
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Bridge on the River Kwai
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Les Girls


1956-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Around the World in 80 Days
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: Around the World in 80 Days
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: The King and I


1955-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Marty
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: East of Eden
Golden Globe Best Picture Outdoor Drama: Wichita
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Guys and Dolls


1954-
Academy Awards Best Picture: On the Waterfront
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: On the Waterfront
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: Carmen Jones


1953-
Academy Awards Best Picture: From Here to Eternity
Golden Globe Best Picture: The Robe


1952-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Greatest Show on Earth
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: The Greatest Show on Earth
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: With a Song in My Heart


1951-
Academy Awards Best Picture: An American in Paris
Golden Globe Best Picture Drama: A Place in the Sun
Golden Globe Best Picture Musical or Comedy: An American in Paris


1950-
Academy Awards Best Picture: All About Eve
Golden Globe Best Picture: Sunset Boulevard


1949-
Academy Awards Best Picture: All the King's Men
Golden Globe Best Picture: All the King's Men


1948-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Hamlet
Golden Globe Best Picture: Johnny Belinda
Golden Globe Best Picture: The Treasure Of the Sierra Madre



1947-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Gentleman's Agreement
Golden Globe Best Picture: Gentleman's Agreement



1946-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Best Years of Our Lives
Golden Globe Best Picture: The Best Years of Our Lives



1945-
Academy Awards Best Picture: The Lost Weekend
Golden Globe Best Picture: The Lost Weekend



1944-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Going My Way
Golden Globe Best Picture: Going My Way



1943-
Academy Awards Best Picture: Casablanca
Golden Globe Best Picture: The Song Of Bernadette

[Syo]

ok so the answer to your question is

1995 Braveheart
1992 Unforgiven
1991 Silence of the Lambs
1982 Gadnhi
1981 Chariots of Fire
1978 The Deer Hunter
1977 Annie Hall
1974 The Godfather part II
1973 The Sting
1970 Patton
1969 Midnight Cowboy
1968 Oliver
1955 Marty
1953 From Here to Eternity
1950 All About Eve
1948 Hamlet
1943 Casablanca

[Syo]

further data:

43 of the 60 years the golden globes have been held the winner(s) have gone on to win the oscar


it has been 7 straight years where the awards have matched up


the longest period is 12 years 1956-1967

1968-1970 three years in row is the most they have ever disagreed


33 best picture dramas have gone on to win the oscar and only 10 best musical or comedys have done it

[CMJ]

Hmm, I've read at three different places it's 44 of 60. How odd.

[ReaperFett]

Being off by 3 wont kill anyone :)

[CMJ]

Yeah, but I'm wondering where and why the discrepency Reaper. That kinda stuff bugs me.

[Syo]

i researched it big time and i posted the results if ya can see something wrong with what i listed as best pictures feel free to pick through it

i got all my data from goldenglobes.com and oscar.com

[CMJ]

It's not that I don't believe you...I just don't know where they went wrong. Your info appears solid. I did pose this question to a panel of oscar watchers on another messageboard. I'm hoping they get back to me soon. ;)

EDIT : In 1958 'Gigi' won best musical...and AD won best comedy. Pretty freaking odd - they had 3 BP winners that year. Same thing with 'West Side Story' its year...won a split Muscial category. So unless I'm mistaken it's 43 that have matched up.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It is shocking that Casblanca didn't win its year for GG. Actually my point was that if ROTK one the GG it would win the Oscar if it didn't it doesn't mean anything. I still have my doubts ET should have won in 82 everybody thought so and they picked that boring film Gandhi.

[CMJ]

If ROTK wins the Globe - it is the most slam dunk case I've seen since '97. I'm so not joking. By that point it would have won 3 HUGE precursors. The Producers Guild, the BFCA, the the Globe. Factor in it's probably gonna win the DGA - I just don't see a loss.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Of course I am doubtable about the Globes the foreign press for some reason don't like it as much not sure why. Its actually hard to figure out a favorite winning that one right now. By the way when are the GG?

[CMJ]

The Globes are next Sunday.

The only way it's still a race. If another movie like 'Mystic River' wins the GG, the WGA, and the SAG Ensemble. Then we *might* have a race. Otherwise I think it's done.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I meant the GG :) I haven't a clue what will win that thing.

[CMJ]

If ROTK wins....BP is signed, sealed, and delivered.

If MR wins...we *might* have a race.

If Sb wins...we *might* have a race.

If M&C wins...everyone will go "What?"

If CM wins...everyone will laugh.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Haha about Cold Mountain I see your hatred of that movie coming through :p A lot of critics did give that movie raves although who knows if that means anything.

[CMJ]

I didn't hate CM. I didn't think it was great either. I actually liked it pretty well. BUT...if you look at all the precursor stuff, it has done badly evrywhere BUT the Globes. That's why eveyone will laugh. It's like they are out on an island and haven't figured out that it's not a contender. ;)

[Syo]

wow your right from 1958-1962 the golden globes awarded 3 best pictures splitting the category of musical and comedy

that accounts for 2 of the 3 movies i am going crazy to try and find that 3rd movie

i fixed my data too

[Syo]

i just double an triple checked all my data,i am guessing they are counting this years as the 44th because its the only thing that makes sense if it holds up this year it will be 44