NFL Playoff Picks: Wild Card Weekend [Archive]

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 29th, 2003, 12:28:58 PM

Originally posted by Ryan Pode
Well, Seahawks honest can't do it on the road again. Especially with Farve at his current level. Titans will lose because the Raven's secondary can shut down the pass and with Boulware back him and Suggs can apply pressure to whoever plays. And Eddie George, not that good. It'll once again be a battle of defense. So I put my chips in with the Ravens.

Never discount Mcnair. I just think he will get it done.

JMK

Dec 29th, 2003, 01:04:56 PM

Saturday, Jan. 3

Tennessee (w) at Baltimore -- 4:30 PM ET
Dallas (w) at Carolina -- 8:00 PM ET

Sunday, Jan. 4

Seattle at Green Bay (w) -- 1:00 PM ET
Denver at Indianapolis (w) -- 4:30 PM ET

Ryan Pode

Dec 29th, 2003, 05:00:38 PM

McNair won't matter. He will be pressured, just like Maddox. Last night was the first time in a long time I can remember, seeing Tommy Maddox pressured like that by the Ravens... last time it happened the Ravens went to the superbowl.

Figrin D'an

Dec 29th, 2003, 07:38:40 PM

McNair has the ability to make plays outside the pocket. Maddox doesn't. An overly aggressive gameplay by Baltimore could backfire.

Tennessee's ability to run the ball will be the key factor in the game. If the Titans can get about 100 yards rushing total, just enough to force Baltimore to bring the safeties in for run support, McNair will find ways to beat them downfield. If they can't run the ball effectively, then the Ravens have the advantage.

Ryan Pode

Dec 29th, 2003, 08:36:08 PM

George can't run against the likes of the Ray Lewis.

Figrin D'an

Dec 29th, 2003, 08:46:53 PM

Tennessee has more than one RB. George doesn't need to carry the load by himself. McNair's scrambling ability comes into play here as well.

And as good a Ray Lewis is, one person does not a run defense make. Run defense starts with the defensive tackles, clogging up the inside gaps to prevent I-formation power football, and forcing backs to make cut-backs.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 29th, 2003, 08:47:03 PM

Mcnair is a lot different than Maddox. First Maddox sucks plain and simple. Mcnair is the best QB in football, IMO and his scrambling ability can be huge in a game. Actually George doesn't need 100 rushing yards if they get around 150 (Mcnair, George, and Holcolmb) combined they would be in great shape.

Ryan Pode

Dec 29th, 2003, 10:01:31 PM

It doesn't matter how well Maddox is, Pittsburgh always plays Baltimore very well. So much hate. Baltimore will win, you shall see.

Taylor Millard

Dec 29th, 2003, 10:43:08 PM

Saturday, Jan. 3

Tennessee
Dallas

Sunday, Jan. 4

Green Bay
Denver

jjwr

Dec 31st, 2003, 05:35:20 AM

The Titans offense is a lot better than the Steelers offense, and a lot better than a 5-11 Steelers team that took Baltimore to OT.

Both teams will play each other very tough but neither is a given to take the game by any means. Both have many ways they could win this one. It could be Baltimore led by a great defense and Lewis going wild or it could be the Titans by shutting down Lewis and McNair throwing for 300 Yards and rushing for 50. Lots of ways it could go down.

My Picks....

Titans
Panthers
Packers
Colts

Ryan Pode

Dec 31st, 2003, 10:59:47 AM

Need I remind you about Chris McAlister, who has shut down five five current pro-bowlers by himself? And he's only played six of them.

McNair will be pressured, with the 3rd best Pass Rushing tandemn in the league, with Pete Boulware and Terrell Suggs (Rookie of the year if ya didn't know). They have 20 combined sacks, with 9 forced fumbles.

But, yet again, I will say, wait till saturday.

Ryan Pode

Dec 31st, 2003, 09:34:02 PM

While I'm on the subject of awesome Ravens, I'll post these links to the AP Offense/Defense player awards:

Offensive Player of the Year (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/6968972)

Defensive Player of the Year (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/6969000)

The Already mentioned Defensive Rookie of the Year (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/6965908)

Out of four awards, we get three. :D

Figrin D'an

Dec 31st, 2003, 10:01:13 PM

Personally, I felt that Defensive Rookie of the Year should have gone to Terrance Newman or Nick Barnett. I think the sportswriters were enamoured with Sugg's sack total. Newman and Barnett had a greater influence on the defensive success of their teams.

For the other two, Ray Lewis and Jamal Lewis were both worthy choices, no argument there.

Ryan Pode

Dec 31st, 2003, 10:26:06 PM

In the last few weeks, Suggs really came out of his shell, getting like most of his sacks and forced fumbles. Its debatable between those three. Suggs's best moment was against Tim Couch, when he sacked him, forced a fumble, and recoved all by himself.

jjwr

Jan 1st, 2004, 10:00:48 AM

Certain stats almost always guarantee something like this, Sacks are a big one on the defensive side(Peppers last year) and rushing yards are another big one.

The Pats had a incredible rookie Center in Dan Koppen, just awesome as a rookie, more valuable to his team than Boldin was but as a Center he would never be considered.

As for the Ravens, they do have a solid defense but again don't underestimate the Titans offense. The Patriots have a very good defense, including a pair of better corners than McAlister and McNair had a incredible game. With is feet and his arm he simply makes things happen.

Ryan Pode

Jan 1st, 2004, 10:10:13 AM

Didn't the Titans blow a big lead to the Pats?

Jedi Master Carr

Jan 1st, 2004, 01:23:50 PM

Titans
Colts
Cowboys
Packers

Figrin D'an

Jan 1st, 2004, 02:05:38 PM

Saturday, Jan. 3

Tennessee (W) at Baltimore
- Baltimore has a lot going for them heading into this game... 2000-yard rusher, defense that creates turnovers, and a young QB that has played pretty well since he became their starter. Tennessee has traditionally had problems with the Ravens (I think the losing streak is 6 games, IIRC). It's hard for me to count out Steve McNair, though. I've seen him do some pretty amazing things... he elevates the play of those around him, a lot like Brett Favre does. This is purely an instinct call... I really don't have much tangible basis for the pick, other than I think Jeff Fischer will have his team ready to play in an underdog role. Baltimore plays well, but Tennessee plays just a little bit better, and wins a close one.

Dallas at Carolina (W)
- Bill Parcells has done an amazing job with the Cowboys this season. Just another chapter in his legacy as one of the best head coaches in league history. But, I think the dream season ends against Carolina. For Dallas to win, they have to run the football to take the pressure off the passing game. I don't see it happening. The Panthers defense will be too much for Quincy Carter to handle.

Sunday, Jan. 4

Seattle at Green Bay (W)
- The playoff loss at home last year, the first in franchise history, has been on the minds of the Packers' players for 12 months. They want redemption in the worst way. The Cardinals helped out, giving Green Bay the playoff berth they desired. I think the Packers take advantage of it. Green Bay is probably the hottest team in the NFC heading into the playoffs. They could make some noise as long as they play with enough passion.

Denver at Indianapolis (W)
- Denver looked good in the first meeting two weeks ago, and secured their playoff spot. They rested a lot of starters and injured players in the final game of the season. It seems like the logical move by Mike Shannahan, but it could backfire, especially regarding offensive timing. That, combined with having to play the same team twice in 3 weeks, with the Colts looking for revenge, doesn't stack up well for Denver. If the Colts defense plays better this time, which I think they will, Indy should win the rematch. The key is stopping the running game, and limiting the number of times Clinton Portis gets the ball.

Nathanial K'cansce

Jan 1st, 2004, 02:51:43 PM

Tennessee
Carolina

Green Bay
Indianapolis

Jedieb

Jan 1st, 2004, 09:22:02 PM

Saturday, Jan. 3

Tennessee
Carolina

Sunday, Jan. 4

Green Bay
Indianapolis

ReaperFett

Jan 2nd, 2004, 09:26:00 PM

Baltimore
Carolina
Green Bay
Indianapolis

imported_Grev Drasen

Jan 3rd, 2004, 03:38:14 PM

Baltimore
Carolina
Green Bay
Indianapolis

Jedieb

Jan 3rd, 2004, 06:35:42 PM

Well, the long national nightmare that a Ravens' playoff run would entail has been averted. The only advice I have for Ravens' fans is;
"Don't be a Ravens' fan." :evil

Ryan Pode

Jan 3rd, 2004, 06:37:08 PM

:cry

So this is what its like to lose. . . :(

I think I shall go jump off the roof. :cry

JMK

Jan 3rd, 2004, 06:40:10 PM

Originally posted by Jedieb
The only advice I have for Ravens' fans is;
"Don't be a Ravens' fan." :evil

:lol

I love nothing more than watching guys run their mouths off (Ray Lewis) just to have a loss hung on them. He may be a superb player, but there aren't many things more satisfying than seeing a big mouth get stuffed full of humility.

Ryan Pode

Jan 3rd, 2004, 06:41:00 PM

There were a lot of bad calls. Like, one huge pass interferance play where the Ref said it 'tipped his fingers' when he clearly had it in his hand.

Ryan Pode

Jan 3rd, 2004, 06:42:51 PM

And delay of game on the defense? WTF?!?!

Jedieb

Jan 3rd, 2004, 07:55:43 PM

Sorry to rub it in Ryan, I was taking up for the Fin fans. ;)

It was a GREAT game. The best game I've ever seen Eddie George have against the Ravens. I thought he and Ray Lewis had a great battle. The Titans defense shut down J. Lewis and they didn't let McNair's 3 INT's cost them the game.

I'm rooting for the Cowboys toniight, but I picked Carolina because I think that Dallas is just too young to win at Carolina. Their regular season game was very close and the Cowboys needed their homefield advantage to win that one.

Jedi Master Carr

Jan 3rd, 2004, 09:50:02 PM

Originally posted by Ryan Pode
There were a lot of bad calls. Like, one huge pass interferance play where the Ref said it 'tipped his fingers' when he clearly had it in his hand.

Well that call ended up not mattering as the Ravens scored a TD on that drive. As for the delay of game that is the Neil Smith rule it is where if a defense player prentends to blitz and OL moves the pentality is on the defense. It has been around for like 5 years I think. About the game I was happy for George he has not done much in recent years so I was gald to see him have a big playoff game. Still not sure how far the Titans can go if Mcnair is not healthy. If he plays like that next round they will lose.

Jedieb

Jan 3rd, 2004, 10:06:14 PM

O'Donnel (sp?) is a great security blanket for the Titans. I agree though, McNair has to play better. I was surprised he threw those 3 INT's after being so careful with the ball during the regular season. I think the injuries have caught up with him and they're affecting his ability to throw the ball. Fisher may have to consider playing him with a short leash next week.

Ryan Pode

Jan 3rd, 2004, 10:40:15 PM

Injuries yes.. I bet thats really what killed us. No Adalius Thomas or Pete Boulware. Thats how Eddie George did it. Ran where they were. The replacements are good, but they aren't pro-bowlers.

Figrin D'an

Jan 4th, 2004, 02:28:47 AM

Originally posted by Ryan Pode
Injuries yes.. I bet thats really what killed us. No Adalius Thomas or Pete Boulware. Thats how Eddie George did it. Ran where they were. The replacements are good, but they aren't pro-bowlers.

Part of it was simply that Tennessee's offensive line played very well. I can't begin to count how many times they used slant blocking to the wide side of the field to draw in the linebackers, got the tight end to seal the open side, and allowed George to cut back for good yardage. The drawback to having an aggresive defense is that, sometimes, they can be fooled and can get burned on counter plays.

Also... bad, bad offensive gameplan by Brian Billick. Jamal Lewis gets only 14 carries? Yeah, the Titans' run defense is really good, but come on. You have a 2000 yard rusher, and you're going to let your journeyman QB throw the ball to win the game?

Impressive that, despite McNair throwing three INTs, the Titans could win on the road. If he plays well, and they can run the football... watch out.

jjwr

Jan 4th, 2004, 09:15:38 AM

Hmmm.....so if the Colts win today which I expect they will then it will be Titans vs Pats in the divisional round. As good as the Titans are I'm liking the Pats chances against them right now.

Course thats all contingent on the Colts winning, I really don't want to see the Bronco's coming to town.

The Cowboys really didn't look ready for the game. Next year they should be much improved, as solid as Carter has been this year they need a better QB if they wanna go further into the playoffs.

Ryan Pode

Jan 4th, 2004, 10:02:30 AM

I don't think the Colts will win. Nothing has changed in three weeks other than the fact that now the Broncos have all been rested up.

JMK

Jan 4th, 2004, 10:06:19 AM

That Dallas/Carolina game was just dull. It's obvious that Dallas will only go as far as Parcells can coach them. Carter isn't good enough at QB nor is Hambrick at RB.

Jedi Master Carr

Jan 4th, 2004, 01:00:04 PM

Originally posted by Ryan Pode
I don't think the Colts will win. Nothing has changed in three weeks other than the fact that now the Broncos have all been rested up.

I think the colts will win, they have the better personnell, IMO. It is just a matter of Manning finally playing well in a playoff game. Plus I hate the Broncos I want them out of the playoffs now. Sure I wouldn't mind seeing my chiefs knocking them around in the AFC championship game but I rather not take a chance meeting them again.

Ryan Pode

Jan 4th, 2004, 02:54:39 PM

Oh, I hate the Colts and don't want them to ever win a playoff game.

Jedieb

Jan 4th, 2004, 03:10:41 PM

That was a good kick by Longwell. The wind and the cold just kept the ball from traveling far enough. They probably should have tried a pass to pick up a few more yards before the kick. Here comes OT.

Figrin D'an

Jan 4th, 2004, 03:12:34 PM

Yeah, and with the way Seattle has moved the ball in the second half, I'm not liking the Packers chances in OT. They'll need a turnover, methinks.

Jedieb

Jan 4th, 2004, 03:20:13 PM

That wasn't a fumble, but it should bring up a 4th down anyway. And am I the only one who wants to punch Hasselback in the mouth for being cocky? :evil

Jedieb

Jan 4th, 2004, 03:31:40 PM

Methinks they got your turnover!

Figrin D'an

Jan 4th, 2004, 03:32:02 PM

Wow... ask and ye shall receive, huh? ;)

That was the only turnover of the entire game, too.

JMK

Jan 4th, 2004, 03:44:49 PM

Go figure Hasselbeck pops off at the mouth and then pays for it with a game winning INT in overtime. Poetic justice if you're a fan of the Pack. I know my friend's entire family is going nuts right now.

Ace McCloud

Jan 4th, 2004, 04:03:12 PM

I am a huge Pack fan. I was going crazy, I broke one of our new chairs when I saw that INT.

Ya know Hasselback was Favre's understudy a few years back...

Jedieb

Jan 4th, 2004, 04:33:42 PM

I feel kind of bad for Hasselback because he had such a great game despite his receivers dropping close to 10 balls on him. But you pop your mouth off and the football gods take vengence!

The Colts look incredible right now. The best scenario for their defense is the big lead Manning and Co. have given them. And can their be a more humiliating TD than the one they gave up to Harrison? Stop your B&M and tackle the receiver!

JMK

Jan 4th, 2004, 05:08:04 PM

Originally posted by Ryan Pode
I don't think the Colts will win. Nothing has changed in three weeks other than the fact that now the Broncos have all been rested up.

Nothing at all has changed? Are you sure? Seems to me there's been a big change. ;)

Ryan Pode

Jan 4th, 2004, 06:14:06 PM

Man... I'm not doin' to hot this weekend. But I hate the colts. They can still lose.

jjwr

Jan 4th, 2004, 09:56:12 PM

Good games, I really hate the Packers though and was sad to see them win. I know that sounds awefull but I just dislike the team, what can I say.

As for Hassleback, the guy was in the moment, playing for a chance to beat his former team at their place in the playoffs, you can't blame the guy. I'm sure if Favre said the same thing and the Packers lost people would just be saying thats Favre.

As for the Colts, they were impressive but they can still be shut down. They had a number of games like this during the regular season and followed them up with some very mediocre games. The Defense played well but it can be pushed around and that will help keep their offense off the field.

Jedi Master Carr

Jan 4th, 2004, 10:05:05 PM

Originally posted by Ryan Pode
Man... I'm not doin' to hot this weekend. But I hate the colts. They can still lose.

I am sure there are Browns fans that feel the same way about your Ravens :p

The Colts looked impressive but like jjwr said they have done this before looked great one weeak and horrible the next. They play the Chiefs now in Arrowhead, I don't think they will be that dominant there and actually I liked the Chiefs chances against them. At worst it is a high scoring game and I think KC can win that kind of game. As for the Patriots and Titans. I give the edge to the Patriots. Mcnair needs to be healthy for them to have a chance. Although if he has his A game on watch out.

Ryan Pode

Jan 4th, 2004, 11:08:55 PM

I bet Browns fans too but the situations are vastly different. The city of Cleveland forced the Browns out. The Colts just left.

Jedi Master Carr

Jan 5th, 2004, 02:07:22 AM

That is not true idiot Modell wanted a better stadium the taxpayers of cleveland said they wouldn't pay for it. So Modell went to Baltimore to get a better stadium. It is the same thing except the Colts owner left in the dead of the night that is the only difference.

Ryan Pode

Jan 5th, 2004, 05:41:03 AM

And told no one!!!!!

Jedieb

Jan 5th, 2004, 08:58:43 AM

There is little difference between what Model and the Browns did to Cleveland than what Irsay (IIRC) and the Colts did to Baltimore. Model mismanaged his team and the city of Cleveland paid the price for it. It's just funny how a lot of old Baltimore Colts fans suddenly found the idea of a team leaving its long time home a palpable one once THEY were on the receiving end of a franchise. :rolleyes

Next Week's Match Ups:
NFC
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Carolina at St. Louis
AFC
Tennessee at New England
Indianapolis at Kansas City

This is the round where home teams REALLY fare well. Since 1990 home teams win over .700 of their games in the WC round and over .800 of their games in the divisional round. The surprise comes in the Conference Championships when HF really doesn't matter that much. Home teams win just over .500 of the match ups. This next week is going to be tough because I've got my eyes on 2 road teams. Ughh, why can't I just play it safe?

Jedi Master Carr

Jan 5th, 2004, 12:11:26 PM

Which road teams are you looking at? Honestly I think the two road teams that can give the home team the most trouble is Tennessee (if Mcnair is healthy) and Green Bay. With Favre I think the Packers can win anywhere. I would like to say the Chiefs are the most safe. But I won't do it. Still, they have a great advantage at home (weather, crowd noise) and seem to play better at home. It is the same with the Rams but even more so they play better in the dome than they do on the road. Right now I think they are the safest of the home teams but I think it is very possible that all four home teams could win this weekend.

JMK

Jan 5th, 2004, 01:43:59 PM

I think New England and Philadelphia are the 2 safe teams in the next round and K.C. and St. Louis are the ones that may be in trouble. There's just something about K.C. and St. Louis that makes me think that they could be in for a major collapse at any given moment, especially defensively. If anything I think K.C. may be in the greatest danger of being upset because it seems to me this game vs Indy will be a shootout and they haven't exactly had a great record since going 9-0.
I don't know how much longer Favre can carry the Packers, although it would seem that Green does a lot of the carrying too. Their honeymoon may be over. McNair just looks too beat up and has too few real options to beat a New England defense that seems to get better and better as the weeks go by, add to that the fact that the game will be in Foxboro and that God is a Pats fan and I think the Titans are just about done.
As for the Panthers in St. Louis, if they decide to get into a shootout with the Rams, they're dead. Delhomme has like 7 comeback wins this season alone so I'm not worried about them coming back, but if they fall too far behind too early, Stephen Davis won't be a factor and the Panthers don't have too many good receivers other than Smith.

Jedieb

Jan 5th, 2004, 02:18:55 PM

You each picked one of my road warriors. Let's get this going over in next week's thread. :shootin

Figrin D'an

Jan 5th, 2004, 02:32:18 PM

St. Louis and KC both seem ready to lay an egg, IMO. I think both have been treading on thin ice towards the end of the season... the Chiefs on defense, and the Rams with their inability to protect the QB and committing turnovers. I'm curious to see how they handled the week off.

Tennessee... yeah, McNair is banged up again (ie. normal for him), but I'll never count him out of anything, even headed into Foxboro.

I'd give the Packers a good shot at beating Philly. Green Bay is playing well, they've already played Philly once this season, and held them down for most of the game before McNabb pulled out a decent drive in the 4th quarter. Ahman Green ran all over the Philly D last time, and the Eagles themselves will be without one of their big playmakers on offense. I'm not saying that the Packers will go into Philly and dominate... just that they have a good shot at taking the Eagles down.

ReaperFett

Jan 5th, 2004, 02:39:45 PM

What were our scores?

Jedi Master Carr

Jan 5th, 2004, 06:55:52 PM

I think KC is actually in great shape. Indy matches up with them well because the Colts can just lay an egg offensively so quick. Plus Dome teams don't play very well outdoors in the playoffs. Also the Chiefs are a different team at home, they are 8-0 this year and have won every game by an average of 16 points at home. There problem is on the road they are a completely different team. Which is what worries me if they have to go to Foxboro.