LOTR: Return of the King - Boxoffice [Archive]

Dutchy

Dec 18th, 2003, 04:20:40 PM

Because they're two different things. The boxoffice discussion might drown in the reviews or the other way round. These are two major topics, I'd say.

Yes, Jonathan. I miss him. :\

So, Marcus Elessar, are you from Holland then, or what? :)

AmazonBabe

Dec 18th, 2003, 04:41:59 PM

:lol!!!

He's from Australia... right next door to "Middle Earth". :)

I can't wait to see the final outcome for the weekend. I wonder how much it'll rake in...

ReaperFett

Dec 18th, 2003, 04:46:13 PM

Dutchy

Dec 18th, 2003, 04:48:15 PM

The other day he posted a .nl URL, which means it's Dutch. I don't see many people outside Holland do that, let alone Australia. :)

Master Yoghurt

Dec 19th, 2003, 04:05:58 PM

ROTK made $17,019,987 on thursday

It allmost certainly will break 120M for 5 days

Full comparison chart of the 3 movies can be seen here:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/vs-lotr.htm

Lilaena De'Ville

Dec 19th, 2003, 04:09:33 PM

The comparison between LotR and Star Wars is interesting too.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 19th, 2003, 04:09:41 PM

I don't think it is for certain. I'd say that because this is the last weekend for Christmas Shopping and people are out in force. I was shopping and I checked out the major theater in my area today and it was busier Wed than Friday which says a lot, IMO. I don't think it will make more than 34 on today or Saturday, still I think it will make 115 at least which would be in line with my prediction :p

About comparing SW and LOTR I don't do it and refrain from doing it. I think its not fair and its not fair to compare LOTR to Harry Potter either I feel. (although IMO, I think the the Harry Potter books are better than LOTR books but that is for another thread). Still I don't like comparing movies I like but that is just me.

Lilaena De'Ville

Dec 19th, 2003, 04:15:09 PM

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
The comparison between LotR and Star Wars is interesting too.
I was referring to the one on Box Office Mojo that was linked to from the page Yog linked. To compare the money isn't "bad" I don't think, and I find it interesting.

And to say that the Harry Potter books are better than the LotR books...

Master Yoghurt

Dec 19th, 2003, 04:15:59 PM

I think it will make the following during the weekend:
Friday: 23M
Saturday: 27M
Sunday: 24M

3-day: 74M
5-day: 125M

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 19th, 2003, 04:32:40 PM

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
And to say that the Harry Potter books are better than the LotR books...
Well I enjoy them better LOTR takes forever to read, Tolkein is just way too wordy, he takes a page to describe a mountain. This is just my opinion I don't think it is a fact or anything.

And about the comparison I see what you mean I can understand that although it is impossible to look at really good for the Prequel vs LOTR until EP 3 come out. And you can't compare the OT with LOTR, IMO.

Figrin D'an

Dec 19th, 2003, 04:36:12 PM

Considering that The Lord of the Rings is widely regarded as the greatest fictional work of the 20th Century... yeah, you're probably in the minority opinion bracket, JMC. :mneh

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 19th, 2003, 04:41:33 PM

But so is the Ulysseus and I got 5 pages into that before I threw that against the wall. I just like a story to get moving not have to stop for tea every 5 pages :p Actually I think the movies are better than the books which is what I like they cut out the boring unneccessary parts.

Jedieb

Dec 19th, 2003, 05:01:39 PM

Phantom Menace opened on 2,970 theaters.
28,500,000 / 2970 = 9595.95 per screen

ROTK opened on 3,650 screens.

34,100,000 / 3650 = 9342.46 per screen
More midnight showings too apparently. So TPM still has the record in one way

Still, if you factor in ROTK's length, then the opening is incredible. To be fair to TPM, with inflation the gap between the two Wed. grosses would be even closer. Bottom line, they're both monster opening days.

JMK

Dec 19th, 2003, 05:09:30 PM

Well let's not start trying to cling to whatever we can to prove TPM's superiority. ;) It's been beaten, and RotK will eventually be beaten.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 19th, 2003, 07:30:00 PM

You are right there Kyle something will come along in ten years or so and beat it too.

Jedieb

Dec 19th, 2003, 07:38:42 PM

You got it, everything's going to get beaten eventually.

But so is the Ulysseus and I got 5 pages into that before I threw that against the wall.
Man do I love Joyce. It's been years since I read Ulysses,, but I loved it. I've been meaning to get back to it one day, but the only thing I have time for these is days is something short like Portrait.

Well I enjoy them better LOTR takes forever to read, Tolkein is just way too wordy, he takes a page to describe a mountain. This is just my opinion I don't think it is a fact or anything.
I didn't find Tolkien to be that wordy. Hell, getting though dozens of pages of Melville describing different species of whales... well I can't even begin to call that wordy, that was just torture. What I didn't particularly like about Tolkien was the songs. Which is why losing Tom B. wasn't that big of a deal to me.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 19th, 2003, 08:20:47 PM

Tolkein is a little wordy to me, I guess it is because it takes a while to get going (the stopping for tea etc all the side trips). Also the songs were annoying as well. Still I think the story is great and so is the characters it is just too many details for me. Also I think Hemmingway was the best writer of this last century personally his books were easier to read and he was a hell of a writer. And yeah I forgot how bad Moby Dick was I tried reading that about died getting through the whale junk. I am sure there are worst writers to read, I can't think of any off hand. Maybe Tolstoy?

Jedieb

Dec 19th, 2003, 08:30:44 PM

Still I think the story is great and so is the characters it is just too many details for me.
Are you reading my mind? o_O After awhile I stopped trying to keep track of the locations, characters, and backstory. There's so much detail in those novels that you could probably spend a decade in studying them and still miss things.

Also I think Hemmingway was the best writer of this last century personally his books were easier to read and he was a hell of a writer.
I love him as well. Some critics say he's simplistic and that his prose isn't very challenging but I could care less. I read The Old Man and the Sea earlier this year and I almost cried my eyes out.

And yeah I forgot how bad Moby Dick was I tried reading that about died getting through the whale junk.
Don't get me wrong, I actually enjoyed Moby Dick. But there were portions of it that were just tedious for me. At times the novel was awe inspiring. Also, without Melville, who would Montalban/Khan use to ham up his death scene?
"From Hell's heart I stab at thee!"

As for Tolstoy, I got through half of War and Peace in my early 20's but just abandoned it. One of these days I'm going to go at it again. Falkner was tough for me years ago, but I've gotten more use to him in my old age.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 19th, 2003, 08:37:46 PM

Faulkner isn't easy either, it is the coloquialism in his writing that are the main problem there. I have to say we really hijacted this thread :p Of course that happens a lot here. Also I should say where this thing went awry, it was about the whole Harry Potter vs LOTR debate which there is no need to rehash. I wouldn't say HP is better I have just enjoyed the books more which is different, IMO. It is also hard to judge that series until it is actually finished, she could botch the last two books, I do think though that it will end up being a classic at least on the scale of Narnia.

TCM'74

Dec 20th, 2003, 12:38:30 AM

Originally posted by Dutchy
Yes, Jonathan. I miss him. :\

I would love to hear his opinions on film noir and expressionism. He was banned? I guess it's not my concern why.

Originally posted by JMK
Well let's not start trying to cling to whatever we can to prove TPM's superiority. ;) It's been beaten, and RotK will eventually be beaten.

IMO, RotK is already beaten. I would place hundreds of films above it. But RotK was a excellent, no question.

JMK

Dec 20th, 2003, 11:08:45 AM

I was refferring to it's box office performance compared to TPM's, not the movie itself.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 20th, 2003, 11:44:21 AM

ROTK made 22.473M on friday

At current pace, it will make about 70M+ for the 3 day weekend and 120M+ for the 5 days.

TCM'74

Dec 20th, 2003, 01:23:37 PM

Originally posted by JMK
I was refferring to it's box office performance compared to TPM's, not the movie itself.

Oops, that's right. ;)

Master Yoghurt

Dec 21st, 2003, 10:46:19 AM

Saturday Estimate

$28,249,000 !!!

Holy crap, what a boost! I have seen 2 different numbers though, one at 26.7M, so it remains to be seen if it is that high. Either way, it is a clear indicator of ROTK's future box office performance. This one is going to have some legs!

If the 28M figure is correct, it is estimated to make around 25M in 5 days, and it broke the 100M mark in 4 days..

ReaperFett

Dec 21st, 2003, 10:47:59 AM

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
Either way, it is a clear indicator of ROTK's future box office performance. This one is going to have some legs!
How is it?

Master Yoghurt

Dec 21st, 2003, 10:58:23 AM

Because by reading the day to day percentage increases compared to the previous chapters, proportional to the opening day numbers, you have some idea of the repeat viewings. Is it gaining or losing momentum etc. Right now, it is gaining in pace. An optimistic guess for saturday would have been more than 27, if it were to keep the same pace. Now it is suddenly accelerating and outdoing TTT and FOTR in percentage increases. It made a 25.7% boost compared to TTT's 18.4% and FOTR's 19.9%.

ReaperFett

Dec 21st, 2003, 11:00:52 AM

It could still drop like a stone after a few weeks though.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 21st, 2003, 11:16:10 AM

Drop like a stone? Doubtful. There are going to be indicators of its staying power long before that. If it made say 60M over the 3 days, it would suggest a much more frontloaded movie than TTT. When it makes 70M +, it is a sign of similar legs. If you are referring to the ineviatable hit as it enters january, you are quite right. But that happened to TTT and FOTR too. What I am talking about is, how it compares previous chapters, which were allready movies with great legs.

From the five days, I feel fairly safe to say it will make a minimum 350M gross. The fight for #1 box office spot of the year seems to be over allready :)

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 21st, 2003, 11:29:32 AM

I think it will have legs like TTT myself it might make 350 but not much more.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 21st, 2003, 11:37:55 AM

Hmm.. I am personally not so sure. Reason is, it seems to have at least as good reviews and WOM as FOTR. Furthermore, it looks like it could be a frontrunner right now for Best Movie and Director at the Academy Awards. If it does win that, we all know what happens to a movie's box office.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 21st, 2003, 01:04:20 PM

Well it is longer. Also FOTR had a smaller gross in the beginning which is why it had such great legs really. Any movie that opens this much is usually somewhat frontloaded (I mean 60% of its gross in the first two weeks). Also not sure about the Oscars I say the front runner is Cold Mountain because of all the golden globe nods it got but that is just my opinion. Now 350-360 is not a bad thing to me that is great and about what I expected but I can't see it doing 400 nor can I see it challenging Titantic.

ReaperFett

Dec 21st, 2003, 01:14:22 PM

I dont think it's really a frontrunner. Nominated, sure, but frontrunner? Nah.

CMJ

Dec 21st, 2003, 01:40:21 PM

Originally posted by ReaperFett
I dont think it's really a frontrunner. Nominated, sure, but frontrunner? Nah.

That's because you don't follow the buzz game man. It's definitely in the frontrunner spot now. Does that mean it can't be beaten? No. But for now it's leading the pack in the race for the Golden guy.

ReaperFett

Dec 21st, 2003, 01:43:30 PM

The buzz game? :)

CMJ

Dec 21st, 2003, 02:01:19 PM

Yeah, following the buzz on movies IS like following a game...or the stock market. From day to day - week to week, movies rise and fall. The Guild nominations should tell us alot about the support for the 'hopefuls".

ReaperFett

Dec 21st, 2003, 02:06:03 PM

I follow it vaguely. I remember Chicago wasn't particuarly hyped last time, and then bam it appeared.

Cold Mountain, a question. Is Nicole Kidman's accent well done? I can just hear too much of her real voice in it, but was wondering what people who'd know if it was right thought :)

CMJ

Dec 21st, 2003, 02:08:04 PM

Her accent is decent, but not great.

As far as 'Chicago'...are you kidding me? I heard buzz on that movie months before it came out.

ReaperFett

Dec 21st, 2003, 02:18:12 PM

I heard buzz, but not BUZZ. When a program would mention Oscar possibilities, this would be an "and...." selection.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 21st, 2003, 02:53:16 PM

Fett, I strongly disagree about Chicago. It was the big favorite in november, even before it hit the theatres :)

Jedieb

Dec 21st, 2003, 02:55:56 PM

There was Oscar hype about Chicago early on. I remember CMJ mentioning it to me as a frontrunner months before the awards. The man STALKS the Academy member!

Jedieb

Dec 21st, 2003, 03:11:02 PM

I still think the biggest B.O. hurdle ROTK faces is it's length. Throw in previews and each showing come dangerously close to 4 hours. I'm thinking it will max out between $325-350.

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 21st, 2003, 05:27:46 PM

Originally posted by Jedieb
I still think the biggest B.O. hurdle ROTK faces is it's length. Throw in previews and each showing come dangerously close to 4 hours. I'm thinking it will max out between $325-350.

Arguments I have againt that.

1) Titanic. Go check it's running length.

2) ROTK is already showing signs of being able to nuke TTT's run. It's saturday estimate is 28.7. It's too early to guess, but I'm thinking ROTK isnt as frontloaded as it's initial figures could resonably suggest. Every LOTR movie has had great multipliers - I suspect ROTK is going to have a multipler closer to FOTR and one indecently long run.

3) No real competition for some weeks. There is no CMIYC. There is no Ali.

4) WOM is through the roof.

5) Definate golden guy nods, very real chance of a win

ROTK can do over 400 million, how much more I dont dare say, but if pushed, TPM type numbers are not out of the frame, if it gets that far. Right now, I will say there is little chance it will end up under 370 million

Jedieb

Dec 21st, 2003, 05:35:24 PM

Yeah, they've got similiar running times. I just think that outgrossing TTT and FOTR would have been impressive an accomplishment in and of itself. To hit $400M would just be unbelievable, but it's doable.

ReaperFett

Dec 21st, 2003, 05:40:26 PM

Originally posted by Marcus Elessar
3) No real competition for some weeks. There is no CMIYC. There is no Ali.
In the US there's Peter Pan and Cold Mountain. Paycheck might take a small chunk off it.

And you forget of possible video classics upcoming!

Leprechaun: Back 2 tha Hood (2003) (video premiere)
Wild Things 2 (2003) (V)
Tremors 4: The Legend Begins (2004) (V)

I tell you, ROTK will FALL under these three, as people stay at home doing rental! :D

Master Yoghurt

Dec 21st, 2003, 05:57:37 PM

I agree with you, Marcus. Those reasons you stated is excactly what I am thinking right now. On friday, I was thinking it would make around 360-370, a little optimistic perhaps, but certainly not unrealistic. Now, after seeing the number for saturday, I am starting to wonder if 400M may be possible, especially concidering the Oscar buzz and the chance for a few major nods (director/best movie). Spiderman may have to watch his back...

In any case, I will wait until the number for monday before I reevaluate my original 360M prediction. It is a little too early to draw broad conclusions. However, right now, it certainly looks bright for ROTK, yes :)

CMJ

Dec 21st, 2003, 06:05:52 PM

I wanna see what it's weekday numbers look like before I come to any conclusions. At this point it loos like it'll take out FN which to be honest, I didn't expect.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 21st, 2003, 06:39:01 PM

Yeah, I am allmost sure it will beat Finding Nemo now. I also feel fairly confident it will beat #6 on the all time domestic list; Jurassic Park at 357M (unadjusted for inflation). Spiderman (403M) may be too hard, but we should get a better idea in the days ahead.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 22nd, 2003, 06:49:18 PM

Ok, looking at the actuals, saturday number was too high and sunday number a little too low. Here are the revised numbers:

Friday: $21,811,549
Saturday: $27,492,053
Sunday: $23,326,111

5 day: $124,100,534
3 day: $72,629,713

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 22nd, 2003, 07:02:52 PM

Those numbers do make more sense.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 22nd, 2003, 07:20:27 PM

Yeah, they do. The saturday jump was a little insane, and the sunday number did seem low. Still though, overall one could say ROTK opened better than most people expected, me included. Marcus seemed to have a good idea about its potential though.

The next 2 big tests will be monday and tuesday. Then we will see if there are signs of it being frontloaded.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 22nd, 2003, 08:20:45 PM

Well Monday is going to be a big drop I could tell people weren't going to the movies here, while I was shopping. In the US the three days before Christmas are the biggest shopping days. So to me that isn't the test it is this coming weekend, particularly Thursday-Sunday

Also while we are at it I need to start a thread for the Boxoffice contest I will be doing it for Thursday-Sunday better get it up to get ready.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 23rd, 2003, 08:21:48 PM

ROTK made 13.6M on monday, which translates into a 41.7% drop.

Now, realize its the biggest non holiday monday ever (TPM made 10M.8M), and FOTR had a bigger drop percentage wise. Apparently, lots of people had monday off a year ago, but this year christmas falls one day later and monday/tuesday are normal working days for most people. Furthermore from what I have read, kids were off school mon/tue a year ago, but this year, have 2 extra days after new year instead. Tuesday should be good. ROTK probably won't see a below 10M number before wednesday. Thats Christmas Eve, and its always slow..

So yeah, Jedi Master Carr, I guess youre right. We will have to wait for the weekend for a better comparison. That monday number could actually turn out to be a lot better than some posters at BOM think.. :)