Holiday Box office contest weekend 7 ROTK weekend, picks due by Thursday 9AM

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay this is a special one, you have to pick ROTK five days (wed-thru Sunday) and you get double points for it. Everthing else three day and regular points, got it? You have until Thursday 9am or at least before the estimates come out to get your picks in.

Also besides ROTK we got Mona Lisa Smiles, staring Julia Roberts opening on Friday.

[Syo]

I am just going to pick my ROTK prediction now then and later on i will add the rest of the week

1. Return of the King 108.44 Million

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is fine

[Marcus Telcontar]

Five day ROTK, hmmm?

It should not be possible for a 3h20m movie to do it, but I'm hitting on 123.5 mil. With at least TWO 30+ million days. 35 million opening, incl previews.

Screw it, I'm going for broke. 139 million five day. I shall be stunned, amazed and mind blunked if it even gets close

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think it will do that much but since you are a fan I understand, I am thinking around 100 for the the five days. Anybody remember what TTT did last year on 5 days? That would be a good way to judge it.
Edit

acording to Mojo it made 102, I think it will make a little more than that how much more I am not sure yet.

[Master Yoghurt]

I really want to say 150, but thats the fan in me, and to be honest thats insane. I screwed up before when guessing based on how much I want a movie to make. I'll try to use the anti fandom mentality and say it makes around 115M for 5 days. A little better than TTT. I would really, really have loved it to make 140-150M though.. :)

1. Return of the King 115.05M (5 days)

Final Gross: 360M

[Marcus Telcontar]

Oh, I'm certain I'm miles over. But what the hell, I can dream!

[ReaperFett]

Originally posted by Marcus Elessar
Oh, I'm certain I'm miles over. But what the hell, I can dream!

Yes you can, meaning I can overtake you. Dream on, I command thee! :D

I predict ROTK: 109.99

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here is my 5 day guess 110.11

[Marcus Telcontar]

It should not be possible for a 3h20m movie to do it, but I'm hitting on 123.5 mil. With at least TWO 30+ million days. 35 million opening, incl previews.

34.1 million est ROTK opening.

Holy crap, I might be in the ballpark with the wild estimate

[ReaperFett]

But Marcus, you don't consider the angry Christopher Lee fans! That should knock a good.............$30 off the total? ;)

[Syo]

2 Mona Lisa Smile $15.57
3 Something's Gotta Give $9.3
4 The Last Samurai $8.5
5 Stuck On You $5.4

[Jedi Master Carr]

2 Mona Lisa Smiles 21.37
3. Somethings got to Give 13.21
4. The Last Samuari 9.10
5 Stuck on you 6.32

[Marcus Telcontar]

Whatever Box Office Guru sez

[ReaperFett]

Why are we so sure ROTK will get first place? It might drop! ;)


2 Mona Lisa Smile 13.99
3 Something's Gotta Give 9.99
4 The Last Samurai 7.99
5 Stuck on You 5.99

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it could do lets say 60 million instead of 70 million or something like that I don't see it making less than 60 for three days or Mona Lisa Smiles make more than 30 for that matter. Although that Julia film could do as much as 25, with its chick appeal.

[Master Yoghurt]

Im going out on a limb, predicting (shock) Mona won't beat ROTK.. ;)

2. Mona Lisa Smile 13.3
3. Something's Gotta Give 10.5
4. The Last Samurai 7.8
5. Stuck on You 4.6

[Master Yoghurt]

Friday numbers

RETURN OF THE KING 22.473
MONA LISA SMILE 4.150
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE 3.270
THE LAST SAMURAI 2.055
STUCK ON YOU 1.648
ELF 1.461
BAD SANTA 1.327
LOVE DON'T COST A THING 1.139
THE HAUNTED MANSION .956
HONEY .851

[Jedi Master Carr]

It looks like it will make between 115-125, I am guess 120 most likely.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
It looks like it will make between 115-125, I am guess 120 most likely.


It's already at 74. It WILL be north of 120. Youre looking at 26-27 staurday, 23 sunday. My originaly estinmate is looking errily right.

[Syo]

27 saturday and 23 sunday adds up to 124 so its possible

its was that low 17 million thursday that hurt it

[Master Yoghurt]

Saturday Estimates

The Return of the King - $ 26,7
Something's Gotta Give - $ 4,6
Mona Lisa Smile - $ 3,9
The Last Samurai - $ 2,8
Elf - $ 2,1
Bad Santa - $ 1,8
Stuck On You - $ 1,8
The Haunted Mansion - $ 1,5
Love Don't Cost a Thing - $ 1,4
Honey - $ 1,0
The Cat in the Hat - $ 0,9

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Estimates

1 Return of the King $73,600,000 NEW $125,071,000 (PTA: $19,875)
2 Mona Lisa Smile $12,000,000 NEW $12,000,000 (PTA: $4,482)
3 Something's Gotta Give $11,500,000 -28% $33,513,000
4 The Last Samurai $7,300,000 -48% $59,000,000
5 Stuck On You $5,400,000 -42% $17,100,000
6 Elf $5,000,000 -17% $154,310,000
7 Bad Santa $4,258,000 -29% $42,066,000
8 The Haunted Mansion $4,243,000 -31% $59,117,000
9 Love Don't Cost a Thing $3,960,000 -37% $11,402,000
10 Honey $2,590,000 -46% $23,478,000

[Syo]

Well if the estiamates hold i will get some points at least as i predicted stuck on you to do 5.4 and its estimated at 5.4 pretty hard to beat that

[Master Yoghurt]

Yep, you will probably win #5.

<font size=-2>(and I will probably win the top 4)</font> :D

[Marcus Telcontar]

Crap, should have held :D - but there's still a chance! Sunday's are almost always underestimated by New Line. One dollar over 127 million I score!

[Master Yoghurt]

Yep, you should have held. Your original prediction was eerily close. And yeah, you may still win it, because that sunday estimate does seem a bit low when you look at the number for saturday..

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
Yep, you should have held. Your original prediction was eerily close. And yeah, you may still win it, because that sunday estimate does seem a bit low when you look at the number for saturday..

I know, I did look and I was shocked. 28 million is an incredible number. It tells me that theatres were sold out everywhere. There has to be some more spill into Sunday, almsot no movie in the top ten had a bigger Sunday falloff. The fist estimate for staurday was 26.5. Even New Line obviously is having problems believeing these numbers, and there's no doubt they are flat out amazing.

[ReaperFett]

Well, let's put it this way. I've only ever seen sell out signs for TWO movies. EP2 and ROTK. So when someone who is never in a cinema more than 1/2-3/4 full sees that, it says the movie is a tad popular :)

[Master Yoghurt]

Btw, look at Mona Lisa Smile's saturday number. It had no increase at all for saturday. Samurai keeps having steep drops. Oh, and its cool to see Elf crossing 150M mark, it may end up with 170M+. Stuck on You had a really bad drop it seems, a fairly miserable box office performance overall. Something's Gotta Give does a little better, but should hit the dumpster next weekend. Still looks like a bore and a half to me, only Jack Nicholson to show off.

Next weekend, should be busy in traffic as its Christmas and there will be some fairly sized openers in an attemt to overtake ROTK (and they will fail). Cheaper by Dozen (3200+), Paycheck (2700), Peter Pan (2700), Cold Mountain (2500+). And double points for all the movies if I remember correctly :)

[ReaperFett]

I bet Paycheck will come 2nd at a guess.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Next weekend will be insane, Peter Pan has possibilities if it can bring out the kids. Still I see Cheaper by the Dozen the biggest winner of the newcomers it could do huge that weekend. Steve Martin has it going with hits right now.

[Marcus Telcontar]

In regards to Mona Lisa Smile, it's obvious counter programming didnt work. But, when you look at the male / female ratio for viewers of LOTR, it's very even. If anything, I would hazard a guess to say the women look like they are getting into LOTR more.

Looks like a week of box office suicide commences next week. Not only the ROTK juggernaught to contend with, too many movies opening. Watch for huge drops for everything bar ROTK is my early guess

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is why I think Cheaper by the Dozen will do so well because it is a family comedy and has no real competition for it. It could do huge (30 million for the 5 days) and do over 100 in the end. I am not sure about Peter Pan, this still has potetial to surprise but I am not sure if american audiences want to see another Peter Pan movie.

[Master Yoghurt]

WEEKEND ACTUALS
1. Return of the King $72,629,713 NEW $124,100,534 1 (PTA: $19,613)
2. Mona Lisa Smile $11,528,498 NEW $11,528,498 1 (PTA: 4,306)
3. Something's Gotta Give $11,416,793 -28.9% $33,429,833 2
4. Last Samurai $7,769,301 -44.8% $59,487,166 3
5. Elf $5,502,635 -8.6% $154,812,967 7
6. Stuck on You $5,284,023 -43.9% $16,983,906 2
7. Bad Santa $5,102,135 -15.1% $42,910,876 4
8. Haunted Mansion $3,928,641 -36.0% $58,802,462 4
9. Love Don't Cost A Thing $3,750,265 -40.6% $11,192,300 2
10. Honey $2,708,610 -44.3% $23,596,315 3

[ReaperFett]

1-4 right, probably winning Last Samurai. Not bad really :)

[Master Yoghurt]

Winner of Movie #1 Master Yoghurt (115.05M)
Winner of Movie #2 Master Yoghurt (13.3M)
Winner of Movie #3 Master Yoghurt (10.5M)
Winner of Movie #4 Master Yoghurt (7.8M)

Points for this weekend (ROTK points are doubled)

Master Yoghurt: 120
Marcus Elessar: 25
ReaperFett: 25
Syo: 25
Jedi Master Carr: 25


Season Totals
Master Yoghurt: 415
Marcus Elessar: 225
Reaperfett: 205
Syo: 165
Jedi Master Carr: 165
Ryan Pode: 20

I did extremely well this weekend. No one got #5 right because of Elf overtaking Stuck on You. Movie order points are doubled for ROTK.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Can we just hand you the trophy now Yog :p You beat the snot out of this year I have to admit that.

[Master Yoghurt]

Hehe, yeah I did pretty well so far. I have been fairly accurate at predicting openers and holdovers at the same time. Usually, it is one or the other. Its still some heavy points remaining though because of the double points weekends, and I am wondering who will be #2 :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

You need to take Brandon's job at Mojo or start up your own site you are that good.