Holiday Box office Contest Weekend 5

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay Week 5 upon us two new movies out
The Last Samuari and Honey. You have until 9AM on Saturday to get your picks in, good luck.

[Syo]

1 The Last Samurai $34.9
2 Haunted Mansion $12.0
3 Elf $11.6
4 The Cat in the Hat $9.4
5 Bad Santa $6.9

[Marcus Telcontar]

Errr......... Lee's Movie Info?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Tough one

Last Samuari 32.44
Honey 20.11
The Haunted Mansion 15.77
ELF 13.55
Cat in the Hat 11.09

[ReaperFett]

1 The Last Samurai 29.99
2 Honey 13.99
3 The Haunted Mansion 10.99
4 Elf 9.99
5 The Cat in the Hat 9.98

[Master Yoghurt]

1. Last Samurai 25.2
2. Honey 13.5
3. Elf 12.3
4. Haunted Mansion 10.1
5. Cat in the Hat 9.6

[Master Yoghurt]

Oh, and for Marcus, here are Lee's numbers:

Lee's Movie Info
1. The Last Samurai 28.7
2. Haunted Mansion 12.3
3. Cat in the Hat 10.1
4. Elf 9.5
5. Honey 9.2

[Master Yoghurt]

Friday Estimates

THE LAST SAMURAI 7.97
HONEY 4.81
THE HAUNTED MANSION 2.30
ELF 2.28
BAD SANTA 2.05
THE CAT IN THE HAT 1.78
GOTHIKA 1.72
MASTER & COMMANDER 1.16
THE MISSING 1.14
LOVE ACTUALLY 1.11

[Jedi Master Carr]

Man everything took a nose dive on Friday some of these movies will get a saturday boost but still. And you know I should have picked lower guesses there is a major snow storm in the north east which hit yesterday I bet that influenced the numbers.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I should have picked a lower number for Elf. I knew the movies would crash, but still picked higher than necessary. The snowstorm and being the weekend after thanksgiving did have a huge negative impact. Looking good still though for me..

One thing about Universal, they know how to market crap into gold. And Warner knows how to market gold into crap. Ok, maybe that sounds a bit dramatic, but I think there is some truth to that this year.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Maybe this year. WB hasn't screwed up the Harry Potter movies so far (knock on wood) although it might hard to mess them up.

[Master Yoghurt]

Well, to be honest, I have a feeling they will screw that one up as well.. eventually. It seems to me the HP franchise is losing out in popularity and every chapter does less than the previous one. Another big blunder from the marketing department, and voila; you have another Revolutions.

This could have been such a brilliant year for Warner, yet there were so many disappointments.

Samurai looks great by the looks of things. It is receiving some good word of mouth now. I suspect though, had it been a Universal movie, it would have opened in the 40M+ range. I really wonder what people see in "Honey". If there were any justice, it would not make any more than 6M. At least IMO.

And what is it about Tom Cruise? Just about every movie he shows his face in becomes #1 for about 10 years or so.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I disagree with you there, actually HP is more popular now (overall) than it was two years ago. The sales of OOTP proves that point. (It has sold more first editions than the first two combined). Also the first film was not liked very well by Harry Potter fans which effected the gross for COS. Now COS has been considered by the fans a much better film and now the third book is the most popular book in the series (most fans say it is their favorite). Also the series is still very popular WW, both films made more money overseas than either LOTR movie and they are two of three films to make 600 overseas. That last fact I find amazing. I think the third film will make more money than the second probably around 280-320 in the US and over 900 WW. About the marketing bit I think they won't screw it up because of Rowling's say and I think the people running the marketing of Harry Potter know what they are doing the first trailer of Prisoner of Azkaban proved it to me and everything I have read and I believe the film will be amazing. Also Harry is different than Matrix because it attracts kids and in that I think it is harder to screw up

[ReaperFett]

Major snowstorm affects Last Samurai opening? Hmm, happened to Daredevil too, and that was great.....surely an omen? :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend estimates
Last Samuari 24.42
Honey 14.02
Haunted Mansion 9.54
Elf 8.13
Cat in the Hat 7.35

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well with the actuals in here are the results

Winner of Movie #1 Master Yoghurt
Winner of Movie #2 Master Yoghurt
Winner of Movie #3 ReaperFett
Winner of Movie #4 Marcus
Winner of Movie #5 Master Yoghurt

Totals
Master Yoghurt 65
Reaperfett 40
Jedi Master Carr 25
Marcus Elessar 20
Syo 5

Master Yoghurt: 285
Marcus Elessar: 180
Syo: 135
Jedi Master Carr: 130
Reaperfett: 100
Ryan Pode: 20

[Master Yoghurt]

Great weekend for me :)

About Harry Potter, while I agree the books are getting more popular (because of the movies), I would not be so sure about the third film. I think for the regular moviegoers, and most in particular those who have not read the books, its going to fade a bit in interest. Im think its going to make max 250M for the third one with normal marketing. I would be surprised if it makes 300.

Matrix reloaded seems to have ended its box office run now. Its definitely not going over 150 now, probably 140+, 145 if its lucky.

Last Samurai should do with OK drop off next weekend I think. Good WOM and decent review should keep some of its momentum (at least I hope).

Next weekend, its "Stuck on You" 2800+, Something's Gotta Give 2500+, Love Dont Cost a Thing 1700+. I have no idea what those are going to make yet. I have to get back on those :)

[Marcus Telcontar]

For a big event type picture, Last Samuri didnt do as well as I thought it would.

Oh well. Sound like a good moive.

Another 10 days till the box office explosion AKA ROTK opens!

[Jedi Master Carr]

But if everybody who reads the books sees the movies it should make 250 easily, plus I think it will make more with casual interest. I am not sure if it will make 300 or not I just gave that range my guess is 285-295 and 895-915 WW.I guess we have a different opinion and will have to wait 6 months to find out.

About this weekend I messed up when I saw reports of Snow I should have changed my picks that was a huge factor, IMO.

[Marcus Telcontar]

You not sure if it'll make 300?!?!? Have you seen the reviews yet? 330 at least, even with it's length for sure! And it's the most anticipated movie of the year!

I'm so certain it will beat 300, I'll put a bet on it.

[Master Yoghurt]

I think though, it would have been a bad week either way. Look at the daily numbers before the weekend. Absolutely horrific.


Another 10 days till the box office explosion AKA ROTK opens!

Yeah, that is what everyone is waiting for right now. Watch the box office explode :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by Marcus Elessar
You not sure if it'll make 300?!?!? Have you seen the reviews yet? 330 at least, even with it's length for sure! And it's the most anticipated movie of the year!

I'm so certain it will beat 300, I'll put a bet on it.

Heh sorry I should have been more clear, I was responding to Yoghurt about the next Harry Potter Movie. I think ROTK will make 300 easily probably at least 330 in the US would be my guess.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
I think though, it would have been a bad week either way. Look at the daily numbers before the weekend. Absolutely horrific.



Yeah, that is what everyone is waiting for right now. Watch the box office explode :)

I think Last Samuari would have opened closer to 30. I guess the rest of the top 5 way too high though either way probably.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Heh sorry I should have been more clear, I was responding to Yoghurt about the next Harry Potter Movie. I think ROTK will make 300 easily probably at least 330 in the US would be my guess.

Oh. Ooops. My bad.

[Jedi Master Carr]

No Problem I didn't notice what you said about ROTK and me posting that next probably did make it seem like I was talking about it.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Oh good, because Iw as looking at your post wondering if you had gone mad :p

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL I would have to gone mad picking ROTK that low :p Although I see some morons on the Mojo forums saying that crap.