Holiday Box Office Contest Weekend 4 Thanksgiving weekend post picks by 9AM Thursday

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay here is the big double your points weekend. Pick all 5 movies for the entire 5 days Wed-Sunday and get double points. Picks do by Thursday and 9am.
This week we have four new releases
The Haunted Mansion
Timeline
The Missing
Bad Santa

[Syo]

Man this is so hard, its so early I have no feeling as to what the movies will do. But since it might be my only chance to make predictions I am going to have to run with it (I might edit them in a couple hours right before I leave but thats most likely my last chance)

1. Haunted Mansion 61.44
2. Cat in the Hat 28.65
3. Timeline 26.78
4. Elf 16.21
5. Gothika 12.32


Man that hurt no idea how I am going to do *crosses fingers* hope springs eternal

[Jedi Master Carr]

This is going to be a tough weekend, I think the only thing I am certain of is Haunted Mansion finishing first. Timeline is a mystery film it could surprise us or bomb not sure what it will do. The same goes for Bad Santa and The missing.

[Syo]

Bad Santa is not being released in that many theatres though, I know its not coming to my town. I hope to see it while I am out of town because I sure some theatre in Denver will have it. But the problem are my sisters who may want to go to something else and my youngest sister is only 11 so I don't think Bad Santa is appropriate for her. But maybe I can talk them into seeing Haunted Mansion and letting me see Bad Santa then I can catch the other movies when I get home on friday.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah I think Bad Santa is being released in less than 2000 theaters but I am not sure, I think it might do okay but I don't see it making the top 5. The Missing and Timeline I have no clue I am going to make some guesses on those.

[Syo]

I was wrong Bad Santa is coming to town not tommorow but friday, so i may just see Haunted Mansion first now.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Tough weekend I am going ahead and making predictions

Haunted Mansion 55.44
Cat in the Hat 35.11
ELF 28.33
The Missing 25.22
Gothika 20.04

[Marcus Telcontar]

Box Office Guru?

[ReaperFett]

1 The Cat in the Hat 39.99
2 The Haunted Mansion 34.99
3 Elf 24.99
4 The Missing 19.99
5 Gothika 18.99

[Master Yoghurt]

1. Haunted Mansion 38.12
2. Cat in the Hat 28.12
3. Elf 24.12
4. Gothika 20.12
5. Bad Santa 18.12

[Master Yoghurt]

For Marcus, I will post Box Office Guru's 5 day prediction. Since a lot of the predictions were 3 day, I had to calculate the five days for what BOG thought they would do in total after thanksgiving substracting tuesday numbers. In order to make it less confusing, and less work for us figuring out the points, please post the numbers next time :)

Box Office Guru 5 day (Marcus)
1. Haunted Mansion 43M
2. Cat in the Hat 34.1M
3. Elf 29M
4. The Missing 19M
5. Gothika 17.1M

M&C 16.1M
Timeline 16M

[Master Yoghurt]

Wednesday estimates:

1 THE CAT IN THE HAT 5.072
2 THE HAUNTED MANSION 4.455
3 ELF 4.014
4 GOTHIKA 2.389
5 MASTER & COMMANDER 2.092
6 TIMELINE 2.000
7 THE MISSING 1.952
8 BAD SANTA 1.780
9 LOVE ACTUALLY 1.389
10 THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS .925

[Master Yoghurt]

Jeez, that cat is starting to annoy me now, lol

[ReaperFett]

I like that cat ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I still think Haunted Mansion will beat it out I think your estimates are going to be closer Yoghurt though I bet HM makes about 40 for the 5 days. Although who knows maybe nobody went to the movies on Wed, I know tonight a lot of people go to the movies (I went one year I know) and Friday is huge. I remember last year Friday after Thanksgiving is a huge Movie day same with the Saturday after.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I think thursday and friday are going to be the biggest test for these movies, because of the increased traffic. The fight for #1 is not over yet.. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I came back from Haunted Mansion right now, I didn't think it was a great movie but it is fun film to spend 90 minutes. The theater I was in was about half full which I guess is pretty good for mid afternoon on Thanksgiving day.

[Master Yoghurt]

Thursday numbers

ELF 5.67 107.95
HAUNTED MANSION, THE 5.08 9.53
CAT IN THE HAT 4.78 52.74
GOTHIKA 3.32 28.58
BAD SANTA 3.09 4.87
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD 2.69 54.78
MISSING, THE 2.66 4.62
TIMELINE 2.17 4.17
LOVE ACTUALLY 1.78 35.18
MATRIX: REVOLUTIONS, THE 1.06 128.71

Looks like Cat in the Hat is losing pace. Elf is gaining speed. How will this all end? Whats the top 3 going to be like? We have to wait until friday numbers to get a better picture. Gothika seems to secure the 4th place and Bad Santa tries to fend off M&C and The Missing for the 5th place.

Edit: Btw, these are early numbers from showbizdata, so they might prove inaccurate.

[Master Yoghurt]

Friday Estimates

1 The Cat in the Hat $10,549,000 +121% $63,233,000
2 The Haunted Mansion $9,777,000 +93% $19,226,000
3 Elf $9,422,000 +66% $117,055,000
4 Master and Commander $5,214,000 +91% $60,037,000
5 Gothika $5,094,000 +56% $33,578,000
6 Bad Santa $4,666,000 +53% $9,465,000
7 The Missing $4,441,000 +67% $9,014,000
8 Timeline $3,538,000 +67% $7,638,000
9 Love Actually $3,352,000 +94% $38,545,000
10 Brother Bear $2,085,000 +199% $74,922,000
11 The Matrix Revolutions $1,860,000 +79% $130,509,000

I hate that cat, I hate that cat, I hate.. <img src=http://www.thegjo.com/smileys/rant.gif>

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its going to be close though right? HM isn't that far behind it from the estimates. The difference between the two films might be less than a million come Monday.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually the top three is real close

CITH 20.3
Haunted Mansion 19.3
ELF 19.0

It will depend on who wins the next two days.

Man who else misses Harry on thanksgiving? The last two Harry Potters made about as much of these movies will make in 3 days in one. Though I think that shows more about Harry Potter than anything about these movies.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend estimates

Haunted Mansion 25.3 (35 5 Day)
Cat in the Hat 24.7 (34.0 5 Day)
Elf 22.2 (31.8 5 Day)
Gothika 12.71 (18.3 5 Day)
Master and Command 12.7 (17.5 5 Day)

The numbers are very close right now I think Haunted Mansion will win out though probably by less than a million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are the three day actuals, no 5 Day numbers yet though I suspect they will be coming out soon

1 The Cat in the Hat $24,459,685 -36% $75,830,805
2 The Haunted Mansion $24,278,410 NEW $34,046,111 (PTA: $7,776)
3 Elf $21,649,842 +15% $129,009,719
4 Gothika $12,868,471 -33% $41,277,771
5 Bad Santa $12,292,952 NEW $16,801,187 (PTA: $6,131)
6 Master & Commander $12,048,731 -20% $66,632,517
7 The Missing $10,833,633 NEW $15,232,287 (PTA: $3,930)
8 Timeline $8,440,629 NEW $12,424,762 (PTA: $3,028)
9 Love Actually $8,218,630 -5% $43,390,140
10 Brother Bear $4,872,344 -9% $77,695,232

Now for those who picked CITH don't get too hopefully they have actuals up for it and HM on Wed and thursday and HM beat it on those two days by a million (9.8 vs 8.5) so HM will win the 5 day period. I would go ahead and post points but actuals for the rest of the top 5 (for Wed and Thurs) haven't come up yet.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are this weekends points

Winner of Movie #1 Master Yoghurt
Winner of Movie #2 Marcus
Winner of Movie #3 Marcus
Winner of Movie #4 Master Yoghurt
Winner of Movie #5 Master Yoghurt

Master Yoghurt 130
Marcus Elessar 100
Jedi Master Carr 30
Syo 20
Reaperfett 10


Master Yoghurt: 220
Marcus Elessar: 160
Syo: 130
Jedi Master Carr: 105
Reaperfett: 60
Ryan Pode: 20

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, for clarity lets wait until the 5 day numbers are up.

It seems I will be getting the top 5 right.. <img src=http://www.thegjo.com/smileys/pokal.gif>

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah you did :) You really benefited from this weekend I have to say you and Marcus. I came so close to getting 2 and 3 only to have Marcus beat me by like 500k on each.

[Master Yoghurt]

The one movie which really impressed me this weekend was Elf. I mean, it made more on friday than its opening day!