Holiday Box Office contest Weekend 3

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend 3 now here, same rules, predictions due by Sat 9am or at least before the estimates come out. Two major new releases out this week
The Cat in the Hat and Gothika.

[Syo]

1. Cat in the Hat 51.22
2. Elf 18.73
3. Master and Commander 15.43
4. Gothika 13.43
5. LOve Actually 8.8


ooopsy fixed my predictions

another change to my predictions

[Master Yoghurt]

Just a quick notice. You have a higher number for the #5 pick than your #4 pick :)

In order to ease the predicting a bit, I'll post a summary/info about the movies a little later

[Jedi Master Carr]

Some bad reviews coming out for CITH man RT has it at 6 Fresh 44 negative of course I don't think kids read reviews so I don't think that is going to affect it any I am glad I am not a parent and have to suffer through taking a child to see it.

[Master Yoghurt]

I agree, reviews dont affect the first weekend so much. It could be argued, it looks a bit cheesy judging by the trailer though. Maybe the kids will spot it.

[Master Yoghurt]

Summary of the predictions:

1. The Cat in the Hat (avg - $46.8 ) (gap - $12, 25.75%)
boxofficereport - $51.0
atnzone - $50.0
boxofficeguru - $47.0
weekendwarrior - $46.0
boxofficemojo - $39.0
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

2. Elf (avg - $18.2) (gap - $3.5, 19.2%)
boxofficemojo - $19.5
boxofficereport - $19.0
boxofficeguru - $18.5
weekendwarrior - $18.0
atnzone - $16.0
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

3. Master and Commander (avg - $15.98 ) (gap - $3.5, 21.9%)
boxofficeguru - $17.5
boxofficereport - $17.0
boxofficemojo - $15.9
weekendwarrior - $15.5
atnzone - $14.0
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

4. Gothika (avg - $15.08 ) (gap - $11, 72.95%)
boxofficereport - $21.0
boxofficemojo - $16.4
weekendwarrior - $16.0
boxofficeguru - $12.0
atnzone - $10.0
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

5. Love Actually (avg - $8.3) (gap - $2.0, 24.1%)
boxofficereport - $9.5
weekendwarrior - $8.5
boxofficemojo - $7.7
atnzone - $7.5
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

6. Brother Bear (avg - $7.45)
boxofficereport - $8.0
boxofficemojo - $7.8
atnzone - $7.0
weekendwarrior - $7.0
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

7. Matrix Revolutions (avg - $7.4)
atnzone - $8.0
boxofficereport - $7.5
boxofficemojo - $7.3
weekendwarrior - $7.2
boxofficeguru - $7.0
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

8. Looney Tunes (avg - $5.475)
boxofficemojo - $6.2
boxofficereport - $5.5
weekendwarrior - $5.5
atnzone - $4.7
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

9. Scary Movie 3 (avg - $3.07)
boxofficereport - $3.3
atnzone - $3.0
weekendwarrior - $3.0
boxofficemojo - $3.0
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

10. Radio (avg - $2.9)
boxofficereport - $3.0
weekendwarrior - $3.0
boxofficemojo - $2.9
atnzone - $2.7
boxofficeprophets - $
leesmovieinfo - $

[Master Yoghurt]

Crowd reports from various forums goes in here. Its still a bit early, I hope to put in some more as the evening progress.

#1

I saw The Matrix Revolutions and Kill Bill: Volume 1 today at Pacific's The Grove Stadium 14 in Los Angeles.

The Matrix Revolutions
1:05 PM Show/About 30% full in a 200 seater (I think...)
Trailers: I missed most of them, but caught The Day After Tomorrow, The Last Samurai, Along Came Polly, and Troy. Not much crowd reactions for those trailers...
The movie was pretty good, considering all those BAD reviews about the movie. But the story was still confusing, but better than Reloaded. I didn't find Revolutions entertaining as Reloaded, but still better. B+

Kill Bill: Volume 1
2:30 PM Show/About 35% Full in 150 seater (I think...)
I got to see the whole movie this time, except the very beginning. I saw the movie from the part when the animation sequence came out. It was my 1 1/2 time seeing this movie and I want to see it again. A

#2

Let's see, I sold a lot of tickets last night. All to Return of the King. Midnight first showing is alrealy about 50% sold. Presold a bunch more for Elf and Looney Tunes this weekend. Didn't sell one for CITH.

Watched CITH with the younger employees and universally it was a thumbs down. There was only 1 LOL moment. Other than that we MST3'd it to death. It was the only way to make it thru the movie

[Master Yoghurt]

Now for the theater counts. Notice the boost for Love Actually.

NEW RELEASES
The Cat In The Hat - 3,464
Gothika - 2,382

HOLDOVERS
Elf - 3,381 (no change)
Master & Commander - 3,101 (no change)
The Matrix Revolutions - 3,024 (-478 )
Looney Tunes: Back in Action - 2,903 (no change)
Brother Bear - 2,885 (-145)
Scary Movie 3 - 2,359 (-401)
Radio - 1,925 (-491)
Love Actually - 1,687 (+510)
Mystic River - 1,250 (-300)
Runaway Jury - 1,061 (-521)
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - 945 (-662)
Tupac: Resurrection - 804 (+3)

NOVEMBER 26 ESTIMATES
The Haunted Mansion - 3,000
Timeline - 2,800+
The Missing - 2,000+
Bad Santa - 1,500+
Cheaper by the Dozen (11/28 Sneak) - 600

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am going to make my guess now I think I can get the order right but the whole problem with CITH makes that film hard to predict

Cat in the Hat 44.33
ELF 18.77
Gothika 17.11
Master and Command 15.44
Love Actually 9.02

[Marcus Telcontar]

BOM with one correction CITH 35 million. I think here comes a tank

[Jedi Master Carr]

I personally think it will make over 40 but I see a huge drop coming. Really this benefits Haunted Mansion coming out next weekend I see that doing huge maybe making 60-80 for the 5 days.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here is some sampling of the reviews according to IMDB some of them are quite funny

Universal's The Cat in the Hat, starring Mike Myers, is virtually certain to command the nation's box offices over the weekend, even though most critics sound like so many Grinches in writing about it. Megan Lehmann in the New York Post calls the movie, "this atrocious hairball of a film, a nauseating splat of gaudy production design with a distasteful central performance by Mike Myers." To A.O. Scott in the New York Post, it's "a vulgar, uninspired lump of poisoned eye candy." John Anderson in Newsday suggests that the movie belongs in "the litter box," describing it as "charmless, pointless and all-but-witless." Liam Lacey in the Toronto Globe & Mail labels it an "abomination ... Hollywood at its most risibly asinine: a $100-million-plus exercise in making a hash out of a first-grade reader." The gentlest criticism may come from Carrie Rickey in the Philadelphia Inquirer, who quotes the book's goldfish: "No, I do not like it, not one little bit!" Several critics, Rickey included, try their hand at writing Seuss-type doggerel to describe their reaction to the film. Manohla Dargis begins hers in the Los Angeles Times with: "Why oh why did they make it like that/Oh why did they ruin The Cat in the Hat?" Chris Vognar in the Dallas Morning News rhymes in: "The book's charm is gone/And so is its grace./This Cat in the Hat/Really stinks up the place." "Poor Dr. Seuss," mourns Roger Ebert in the Chicago Sun-Times, "whose fragile wonderments have been crushed under a mountain of technology." Adds Ty Burr in the Boston Globe, using Dr. Seuss's real name: "If the producers had dug up Ted Geisel's body and hung it from a tree, they couldn't have desecrated the man more." More specifically, Mark Caro writes in the Chicago Tribune: "Can we agree on one point? You shouldn't have to add burps, farts and dog pee to Dr. Seuss." Still a handful of critics find the movie tasty even though it may look like green eggs. Stephen Hunter in the Washington Post pronounces it "so good it breaks your heart for not being better. It is kept from brilliance by a soggy climax and a clumsy central narrative device." And Bruce Westbrook in the Houston Chronicle suggests that it should be judged on its own terms: "Cat has ample comic kick, and it roars, if not purrs," he writes. "It's a barrel of lunatic laughs, less an homage to a classic than a contemporary product exploiting its source for name recognition. Forget loving tributes -- this is all about the 'wicked cool' of guilty pleasures."

[Master Yoghurt]

Sounds awful. Some juicy reviews there, lol

Thats not going to stop the kids from dragging their parents to see it though. Universal has advertised this movie heavily, and the awareness level is very high. Remember the Grinch which opened at $55M (a total surprise to me). Back then, they had Jim Carrey, now they have Mike Myers. I must admit, personally I dont know a thing about Dr. Seuss, but he and the books seems to be popular.

In the end though, I feel the same as Marcus, this is probably not going to as so well as the studio hopes. Even with a strong first weekend, I think it should drop fairly fast percentage wise in the weeks ahead.

[Master Yoghurt]

Here are the trailers for the 2 opening movies:

Cat in the Hat:
http://www.apple.com/trailers/universal/thecatinthehat/

Gothika:
http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/gothika/

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will open in the mid 40's and finish barely over 100 which is a huge disapointment I think. Man has November been a disapointing month Matrix and CITH were suppose to be huge I read predictions for both over 200 now either will probably be lucky to make 150. I predict the biggest movie to come out of November will be Haunted Mansion, I think that will surprise people like POTC did back in July.

[Master Yoghurt]

Aye, I agree. November seems to be a disappointing month so far. Only Elf did as good as or better than expected. Perhaps also BB.

Here are the numbers for thursday. No big surprises here. Small changes from wednesday.

1 Master & Commander $1,531,177 -8% $32,065,829
2 Elf $1,390,000 +4% $76,016,364
3 The Matrix Revolutions $928,353 -2% $118,350,576
4 Love Actually $747,395 +8% $21,792,420
5 Brother Bear $463,639 -3% $64,975,204
6 Looney Tunes: Back in Action $317,227 -4% $10,676,374
7 Radio $241,471 +3% $44,461,440
8 Scary Movie 3 $241,000 +2% $103,334,106
9 Mystic River $236,356 -5% $46,539,020
10 Runaway Jury $190,557 -8% $45,317,731

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'd say Love Actually has done well as well. Really the only hopes for November now is that two of the three Thanksgiving films (The Haunted Mansion, Timeline, and The Missing) do well, north of 100 million. I think HM will do huge I am thinking around 200 the trailers look very funny and Murphy looks great in it. Timeline is a mystery. It is based on a very popular book and it is sci-fi action so it has some possibilities, then there is The Missing, which is a western starring Tommy Lee Jones it has some possibilities.

[ReaperFett]

1. The Cat in the Hat 44.99
2. Elf 19.99
3. Master and Commander 15.99
4. Gothika 14.99
5. Love Actually 9.99

[Marcus Telcontar]

M:rev is under 1 mill a day already??????????

OUCH!

[Ryan Pode]

I will just go with Boxofficemojo, if thats okay?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Marcus already took that one choose another okay :)

[Syo]

Take Lee's he's fairly accurate

and Cat in the Hat sucked, sucked I say, no way you say, sucked I say

[Master Yoghurt]

You know, I curse CITH for torturing me like this. I still don't know what its going to make. IMO, the box office sites are out of their minds to predict it will make over 50M, because the more I think about it, the more I have to wonder who excactly this movie appeals to. Not me, thats for sure. There are probably very few above the age of 20 who want to see this. Teenage crowd? Like Syo said last week, they want to see Scary Movie 3 and that kind of crap. So who is it going to be? Some pre teenage school kids who think the cat is cool/cute? Sure, but is this really enough to secure it a convincing victory of the weekend? Im not so sure actually. Especially when I wake up to see crowd reports of it being outsold by other movies..

Yes, I know this is friday and a lot of the kids are at school. Yes, this has been marketed to death and the awareness level is very high, being touted as one of the big movies of the year, blah blah. And yes, its playing in 3,464 theaters with a 75 minute playing time, with potential for an insane amount of showings. I know all this, but still, I really have to wonder if we may have a bomb on our hands..

Ladies and gents, I am going to make the boldest prediction since Pluto Nash. I am going big time on a limb to say it will have a hard time making the #1 spot. A little gambling once in a while is what makes this contest interesting anyway. If it fails, I will probably have to say congrats to Marcus for having the most accurate pic and I crash this week :lol


1. Elf: 20.01M
2. Master & Commander: 18.01M
3. Gothika: 17.01M
4. Cat in the Hat: 16.01M
5. Love Actually: 8.01M


I think Elf will hold up really well, closely followed by M&C which migh open bigger on friday but lose out on the multiplyer. Gothika will probably open.. average/ok with a little less than M&C. Love Actually is going to take the 5th spot I am allmost sure of.

[ReaperFett]

Originally posted by Marcus Elessar
M:rev is under 1 mill a day already??????????

OUCH!

I believe it is still dropping at the same rate as Reloaded, meaning my billion profit by end of 2004 calculations still hold true :)

[Master Yoghurt]

Your calculations are way off though. The sequels are not making anywhere near 1 billion in net profit :)

[ReaperFett]

I worked it out carefully and with assumptions. You're just saying "blah blah, no they wont". I'm going to listen to me over you :)

[Master Yoghurt]

Listen to this then; if Revolution makes 186M domestically, I am going to eat raisin baked Yorkshire shrimp pudding with a pound of pepper custard on the top :)

[ReaperFett]

Could happen. I checked, for Revolutions to drop at the same speed as Reloaded it needs to drop 60%, around 8M. The predictors say 7-8M, so it's on target :)

8
6
6
4
3
2
2
4
3

It's on about 160M by now. Few more good weeks, and it wont be far off, could top it :)

[Master Yoghurt]

And friday, numbers are out. Darn, CITH did not do as bad as I hoped :lol

1 The Cat in the Hat - $10.63
2 Gothika - $6.85
3 Elf - $5.45
4 Master & Commander - $4.29
5 Love Actually - $2.67
6 The Matrix Revolutions - $1.94
7 Brother Bear - $1.18
8 Scary Movie 3 - $.98
9 Radio - $.86
10 Looney Tunes - $.56

[Master Yoghurt]

Looney Tunes drop is nothing short of lunacy :eek

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah ouch on LT. CITH still didn't do that well it will make somewhere between 35-40, I am sure that is not what Universal was hoping for.

[Jedi Master Carr]

BOM has different numbers also yoghurt

1. The Cat in the Hat - $10.4 million
2. Gothika - $6.72 million
3. Elf - $5.45 million
4. Master & Commander - $4.374 million
5. Love Actually - $2.642 million
6. The Matrix Revolutions - $2.038 million
7. Brother Bear - $1.198 million
8. Scary Movie 3 - $.989 million
9. Looney Tunes: Back in Action- $.916 million

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, its definitely lower than some thought it would be doing, and Univeral is probably not too happy. On the other hand, its still high enough to establish one thing: Crap kid movies sell as long as they are marketed enough. I put this movie in the Scooby Doo category; meaning it will have some bad drops.

Edi: Yeah, those numbers are probably more accurate

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah it looks like it will do similar to Scooby, you are probably looking at around 40 for the 3 days. You know there will be an increase for Saturday it will depend on how big I guess. Right now I think it could make anywhere between 37-45 depending on the increase. So it is between me, Marcus, and Reaper right now. Also I think ELF will take the 2 spot for the weekend.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I agree. Elf should take #2 spot. Gothika takes 3rd, M&C 4th and Love Actually 5th spot.

2 million for revolutions means it is roughly dropping at 60% rate

[ReaperFett]

Reloaded dropped at about 50-60 for a few weeks, then steadied to about £0% drops.

[Syo]

Oh shoot i meant to change my prediction to 41 million, I guess i typoed the darn thing

Oh well, maybe I will get lucky and droves of idiots will see the movie on Saturday and Sunday.

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Estimates

Cat in the Hat 40.08
Gothika 19.62
Elf 19.13
Master & Commander 15.20
Love Actually 9.05
Matrix Revolutions 6.74
Brother Bear 5.47
Looney Tunes 4.11
Scary Movie 3 3.28
Radio 2.60

Source: Nielsen EDI

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its between me and Marcus for #1 it looks like. Elf still may pass Gothika when the actuals come out tomorrow.

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Actuals

1 DR. SEUSS' THE CAT IN THE HAT 38.33 1 38.3
2 GOTHIKA 19.29 1 19.3
3 ELF 18.72 3 94.7
4 MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE ... 15.21 2 47.3
5 LOVE ACTUALLY 8.64 3 30.4
6 THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS 7.03 3 125.4
7 BROTHER BEAR 5.35 5 70.3
8 LOONEY TUNES: BACK IN ACTION 4.22 2 14.9
9 SCARY MOVIE 3 3.14 5 106.5
10 RADIO 2.62 5 47.1

Points coming up soon..

[Master Yoghurt]

This week, Yog crashed (as could be expected when gambling like madman!), while his other competitors gained some points. Marcus got #1 right, Carr nailed #4 and Syo won #5. No one had #2-3 in the right order. Seems Gothika took us a bit by surprise. The race is tight, and there are no clear favorites, perhaps except Syo who is still in the lead :spank (I'll get you soon enough, dont worry ;)). Marcus climbs in position, otherwise its the same. Next weekend will very exciting, because its thanksgiving and all points are doubled! :rollin

Winner of Movie #1 Marcus Elessar
Winner of Movie #4 Jedi Master Carr
Winner of Movie #5 Syo


This weeks points
Marcus Elessar: 35
Jedi Master Carr: 25
Syo: 15
ReaperFett: 10
Master Yoghurt: 5


Season Totals
Syo: 110
Master Yoghurt: 90
Jedi Master Carr: 75
Marcus Elessar: 60
Reaperfett: 50
Ryan Pode: 20

[Syo]

I shall be champion and reap the benifits of such champion-like behaviour.

So speaketh I

[Syo]

Hey when will the thanksgiving picks be up, I am leaving town tommorow for Thanksgiving and won't be back tell Friday (and my darn sister doesn't have internet access) so I got to pick early.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am going to post them now :)