Holiday Box office Contest Weekend 2

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay Weekend 2 is upon us, we got several new movies out.
Looney Toones Back in Action and Master and Command. Also Love Actually expands into 1500 theaters. Your picks are do by 9AM Saturday morning good luck.

[Syo]

1 Master & Commander 28.22
2 Elf $21.11
3 Matrix Revolutions 3502 $19.98
4 Looney Tunes $14.99
5 Brother Bear $10.48

[Master Yoghurt]

Here is what the 'experts' say:

Box Office Mojo:
1. Master and Commander 27.1
2. Elf 23.1
3. The Matrix Revolutions 20.7
4. Looney Tunes: Back in Action 17.2
5. Brother Bear 12.4
6. Love Actually (1,200 theaters) 9.3
7. Scary Movie 3 5.6
8. Radio 4.8
9. Mystic River 3.2
10. Runaway Jury 3.0
Tupac: Resurrection (800 theaters) 2.7

Lee's Movie Info
1. Elf 20.483
2. Matrix Revolutions 18.025
3. Master & Commander 13.181
4. Brother Bear 12.196
5. Loney Tunes 9.933
Tupac Resurrection 3.225

Box Office Guru
Matrix Revolutions 22M
Master & Commander 22M
Elf 20M
Looney Tunes 14M
Brother Bear 13M
Love Actually 8.5M
Scary Movie 3 6.5M
Tupac: Resurrection 5M
<a href=http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm>Link to analysis</a>


Box Office Report
1. Master & Commander 29.0
2. Elf 23.0
3. Matrix Revolutions 22.0
4. Looney Tunes 16.0
5. Brother Bear 14.0
6. Love Actually 10.0
7. Tupac: Resurrection 8.0
8. Scary Movie 3 5.5
9. Radio 5.0
10. Mystic River 3.5

[Master Yoghurt]

And now for the updated theater counts:

Matrix Revolutions 3,502
Elf 3,381 (+44)
Master & Commander 3,101 (New)
Brother Bear 3,030
Scary Movie 3 2,960 (-328)
Looney Tunes 2,903 (New)
Radio 2,416 (-395)
Texas Chainsaw Masacre 1,607 (-771)
Runaway Jury 1,582 (-551)
Mystic River 1,550 (-31)
School of Rock 1,208 (-774)
Love Actually 1,177 (+601)
Tupac Resurrection 801 (New)

[Master Yoghurt]

For calculating holdovers, here are some numbers for wednesday:

1 The Matrix Revolutions $2,223,433 -57% $95,801,145
2 Elf $1,687,000 -71% $42,396,000
3 Brother Bear $690,555 -82% $50,215,345
4 Love Actually $662,445 -39% $9,649,590
5 Scary Movie 3 $429,000 -71% $96,061,000
6 Mystic River $381,095 -43% $41,974,338
7 Radio $377,682 -64% $38,302,607
8 Runaway Jury $345,619 -44% $41,409,113
9 The Texas Chainsaw Massacre $289,000 -50% $74,785,000
10 Kill Bill: Volume 1 $239,000 -43% $65,768,000

[Marcus Telcontar]

This is goign to be an ugly week for guessing. Anything could happen.

Gimme Box Office report.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am going out on a huge limb

Looney Toones 28.47
Masters and Command 25.23
ELF 23.66
Matrix Revolution 21.11
Love Actually 15.55

[Marcus Telcontar]

Whoah man, that's one hell of a chance your taking!

[Master Yoghurt]

Actually, no matter what you pick, youre taking a chance, because there are like 4 movies who could make the #1 spot and 2 movies fighting for the #5 spot, so nothing is certain. Just look at the wide differences in the experts picks. No one knows whats going to happen :)

[ReaperFett]

1 Matrix Revolutions 23.99M
2 Master & Commander 22.99M
3 Elf 19.99M
4 Looney Tunes 14.99M
5 Brother Bear 12.99M

I'm thinking Elf holds, but Revolutions stays above it, with M&C doing pretty well.

[Syo]

Is it ok I changed my picks, its not even midnight yet on the west coast?

I just got a different feeling after going to the movies today that Master and Commander will do better than I intitially thought.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Sure. And I agree with Yoghurt. I am going with Looney Toones because I have a feeling and other factors which I won't go into. I could be wrong and so be it, I won't be out as I think most of us might have a bad weekend.

[Master Yoghurt]

Ok this was a tough one, and Im probably going to bomb, but here goes :)

1. Elf 21.62
2. Matrix Revolutions 20.52
3. Master & Commander 18.52
4. Looney Tunes 12.52
5. Brother Bear 11.52

[Master Yoghurt]

Friday Estimates

1. MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD $8,000,000
2. ELF $7,358,000
3. THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS $4,879,000
4. LOVE ACTUALLY $2,664,000
5. BROTHER BEAR $2,514,000
6. TUPAC: RESURRECTION $2,180,000
7. LOONEY TUNES: BACK IN ACTION $2,140,000
8. SCARY MOVIE 3 $2,047,000
9. RADIO $1,537,000
10. MYSTIC RIVER $901,000

[Master Yoghurt]

Master & Commander did really well, but will probably lose out to Elf over the weekend due to a poorer weekend multiplyer. Elf is holding up well it seems, just as I thought.

Matrix: Ouch, ouch, ouch - again! If it keeps like this we might as well start comparing it to the Hulk. The drop offs are insane.

Looney tunes, man o man. That was far worse than I imagined, although friday is a school day, so it might take the #5 spot.

Love Actually had a nice boost due to the theater increase.

[Syo]

Thats why I changed my picks, when I saw Master and Commander yesterday the theatre was packed. But when I saw Looney Tunes there was nary a soul in the theatres. I even heard some like 10-12 year old kids outside saying they didn't want to see that it looked lame, then they started praising scary movie 3.

I think we have lost the children to movies that are insanely inferior and nowhere near as fuuny as they are pleased to watch garbage.


I think Master and Commander will hold off Elf but just barely
Lee's estimates have Master and Commander fairing a little better
1 Master & Commander 8.157 8.16
2 Elf 7.277 51.70
3 Matrix Revolutions 4.742 102.59
4 Love Actually 2.662 12.82
5 Brother Bear 2.524 53.55
6 Tupac Resurrection 2.492 2.49
7 Looney Tunes 2.169 2.17
8 Scary Movie 3 2.027 98.70
9 Radio 1.522 40.72
10 Mystic River 0.960 43.31


I am greatly surprised that Looney Tunes did so bad, the movie is funny and cute.

[Syo]

Thats also the numbers showbiz data are reporting


MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD 8.16 8.16
ELF 7.28 51.70
MATRIX: REVOLUTIONS, THE 4.74 102.59
LOVE ACTUALLY 2.66 12.82
BROTHER BEAR 2.52 53.55
TUPAC: RESURRECTION 2.49 2.49
LOONEY TUNES: BACK IN ACTION 2.17 2.17
SCARY MOVIE 3 2.03 98.70
RADIO 1.52 40.72
MYSTIC RIVER .96 43.31

[Master Yoghurt]

Well, these are estimates and the difference is not that significant. I got mine from Box Office Mojo which tend to have accurate estimates reported from the studios, but maybe they slipped this time. You are probably right Master & Commander did a little better, because the number is rounded to an 8. I expect M&C to make around 24 million for the weekend.

I expect Elf to make a similar number. It is a family movie, so I expect a nice percentage boost for saturday, while M&C's friday benefits from opening day number which is allmost allways is a little higher than what one could expect looking at the final weekend number. Furthermore, I heard some people said they found M&C a little boring. If that is a representative image, it might lose some of the momentum the next couple of days. Anyway, we will know more when the saturday estimates are out.

Matrix looks like it will make around 15M, which translates into a drop around 70%..

If last weekend was any indication, Brother Bear will make a huge boost on saturday, and snub Love Actually for the #4 spot. I think Looney tunes also will have a good boost, but probably not quite as high, so I suspect it will make #5.

Tupac: Resurection was close to the top 5, but no cigar


But when I saw Looney Tunes there was nary a soul in the theatres. I even heard some like 10-12 year old kids outside saying they didn't want to see that it looked lame, then they started praising scary movie 3.

I think we have lost the children to movies that are insanely inferior and nowhere near as fuuny as they are pleased to watch garbage.

I 100% agree with you here. I will elaborate a little later on this :)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Kids have learned that there is such a thing as a animated feature that doesnt pander, doesnt talk down, doesnt lecture, has intelligence and heart and blazingly funny

They're called Pixar animated features and frankly, the risk you take making an animated feature is that you have to live up to Pixar's standards. That is why cell animation is being wiped out, Pixar has set a standard and a level of coolness that tradional 2D or even traditional Loony Tunes have not managed to get close too. The talented artists are all going into CG and who can blame them?

Loony Tunes in their day were biting satire. What are they now?

Pixar has totally redefined animation and the old tradional toons have been left behind. Dont tell me kids are lost to crap, you give them something good and they will flock to it. Or is there another reason Finding Nemo will most liekly end up this years No 1? I doubt there is.

[ReaperFett]

Originally posted by Marcus Elessar
Loony Tunes in their day were biting satire. What are they now?


What was there day? I don't remember them like that, but they were around A LONG time before me.


Dont tell me kids are lost to crap, you give them something good and they will flock to it. Or is there another reason Finding Nemo will most liekly end up this years No 1? I doubt there is.
Adults :)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by ReaperFett
What was there day? I don't remember them like that, but they were around A LONG time before me.

Dig into what they were really on about in the fifties. Much of the satire is lost because it's no longer relavent, but then, they belted Mccarthyism, Consumerism, wars and all manner of social problems. There was one episode devoted to stealing rubber tyres. Now, that seems funny to us, but them, rubber was in serious shortage due to artifical restrictions. It was a social and relavent comment of the day that, when you place then into context, makes Looney Tunes all the more important. After all, if you dared be critical, you were often black listed.

[Syo]

But I wasn't comparing Looney Tunes to Pixar Movies nor was i dissing Pixar movies in any way. I was lamenting that these kids would rather see movies such as Scary Movie 3 rather than Looney Tunes.


Looney Tunes lost a lot of its relevance by not making movies anymore nor including cartoons before movies like in their glory days.

That does not make Looney Tunes less funny, less satirical, less relevant. It just means somewhere along the way Looney Tunes stopped connecting with their target audience because they no longer flood the market anymore.

Where is the only place you can get Looney Tunes cartoons nowdays besides Video/DVD thats cartoon netwwok and even there they have a very small presense. When I was a kid Looney Tunes was the major cartoon on Saturday morinings they had a whole hour devoted to the wacky adventures of Bugs Bunny and Company. But as cartoons have dissapeared from Saturday morning so has the influence of Looney Tunes on children. They would rather watch what i think of and refer to as garbage TV in the form of Nickelodeon.

They are plastered with ads of crude humor for such movies like Scary Movie, Dumb and Dumberer and other movies that just plain should have never been made in the gross out humor category. Rather than seeing such good humor that Looney Tunes contains.

Looney Tunes: Back in Action does work on two levels and there is plenty their that is saticrical and sophisticated enough for any audience,

But kids will love sophomoric humor if you keep feeding it to them, and Looney Tunes downfall is not due to Pixar, its Pixar that is bucking the trend by still managing to develop clean, wholesome fun while the rest of the industry is mired in the trash can.

[Master Yoghurt]

Marcus, I am not questioning Pixar's potential for creating good animated movies and box office hits. Far from it. After all, prior to Nemo, they had Toy Story 1 & 2 and Monsters' Inc, and they all did some huge money. This is the foundation of building up hype. With a track record like that, you know the next movie will do really well, no matter what. Then you add Disney's PR machine into the mix, with an estimated $40 million marketing budget and well placed adds, the opening is going to be spectacular. And finally, the quality of the end result proves to be really good, so you have a spectacular 99% RT rating, and a movie which appeals to kids as adults alike, making for a wide target audience. This allows for some good legs in addition to the allready great opening. Conclusion? A movie which threatens to hold the #1 spot this year.

In the above example, every single factor worked really well together to earn Nemo its position. When concidering all that, its box office performance starts to make sense. LT and Nemo are in two separate leagues, so no arguments there.

What I really want to know is, how could a piece of trash like Scooby Doo open at 54M when this can't even reach 10M? Is it because if "..you give them something good and they will flock to it"? Not a chance. Thats IMO a prime example how kids will flock to a really bad movie if the marketing is done right.

Since we are in the business of comparison, lets look at how some 2D animated movies opened. Another WB production with with a very similar animation/live action technique and some of the same toon characters made a 27M opening weekend - Space Jam. Looking at some popular animation TV shows conversions, Pokemon the movie opened at 19.5M and Rugrats the movie 27M. Brother Bear which opened just recently, made 20 millions in 2 days. Can you explain to me what it is about the above franchises which appeals to kids, but Looney Tunes does not? What is it about those which make them cool and not "lame" like LT apparently is? :)

Syo's observation from the theater seems accurate, because I just read something very similar:


I have 3 kids, ages 5-10. When I suggested we go see Looney Toons, they looked at me like I was crazy and opted to stay home and watch Ghostbusters for the millionth time. Plus the oldest proclaimed loudly, lame!!!!! Nuff said.

And here for something I read at BOM forums. I thought he made some interesting points about how difficult it can be to predict family/kids movies:


I like how people are coming out of the woodwork to tell us all that Looney Tunes was a certifiable disaster from the beginning and how we didn't see it coming and etc. I mean, it's great to have people coming back to BOM, but it annoys the hell out of me. It's way easier to say how wrong we all were AFTER the fact. Space Jam made 27 million dollars! Regardless of this movie's performance, Looney Tunes continues to be one of the biggest brands out there in the history of animation. Yes, there was huge family competition, but look at how well kids movies have been doing. Even Brother Bear, a poorly promoted movie released on a Saturday (which many people have questioned), a 2-D Disney film relegated to a couple of moose ads with little hype, ehhh reviews, made 16 million dollars opening weekend, and fell only 4% its second weekend! Look at something like Spy Kids 3-D a couple of months ago, when people thought that franchise was dead. Even an utter piece of crap like Good Boy made a highly respectable 13 million its opening weekend. So it's not as obvious that Looney Tunes was going to fail as many of you are making it out to be.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Looks like I was way wrong and I have to admit that. I think WB messed up on the marketing of the movie. If I was doing the marketing I would have done better trailers and second I would have hyped the hell out of the fact the Harry Potter trailer was on the movie that would have got it at least another 2 million (considering most Harry Potter fans are like Star Wars fans). Speaking of Harry last year at this time COS opened and what a difference that weekend was the box office is going to be way down from that weekend. The weekend was so bad that I heard on moviephone Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban was #5 and it comes out 6 months from now.

[Syo]

I don't think even had they marketed the heck out of it, it would have mattered.

The audience is gone for a movie like this and has been so for 10-15 years. When Warner Brothers stopped getting Bugs Bunny and Company cartoons on tv, on saturday mornings that was the downfall. If the cartoons were still apearing before feature films like the did in the 40's and 50's or if there were more feature films the movie might have had a chance.

Looney Tunes cartoons didn't lose children to their wonders tell they were 14-15 when I was a kid (and I am not that old mid 20's) now they are losing the kids interest when they hit 8 or 10.

It seemed like the movie was more for us who remember the cartoons from our childhood then the kids nowdays.

Marketing would not have changed it that much, kids just simply aren't interested in seeing a Looney Tunes movie anymore.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think if they had added on the comericials come to see the new HP trailer it might have made more money of course I think that only would have added a couple of million.

[Master Yoghurt]

Saturday Estimates

1 Elf $11,910,000 +62%
2 Master & Commander $10,765,000 +34%
3 The Matrix Revolutions $7,319,000 +50%
4 Brother Bear $5,700,000 +128%
5 Looney Tunes $4,140,000 +93%
6 Love Actually $3,772,000 +44%
7 Scary Movie 3 $3,029,000 +48%
8 Radio $2,200,000 +46%
9 Tupac Resurrection $1,575,000 -27%
10 Mystic River $1,564,000 +73%

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Estimates

Elf 27.22M -12.5% $71,254,000
Master and Commander 25.73M NEW
The Matrix Revolutions 16.30M -66% $114,154,000
Brother Bear 12.02M -35% $63,019,000
Looney Tunes: Back in Action 9.50M NEW (PTA: $3,272)
Love Actually 8.88M +29% $19,044,000
Scary Movie 3 6.11M -43.5% $102,344,000
Radio 5.00M -30% $43,708,000
Tupac 4.66M NEW
Mystic River 3.33M -31.1% $45,624,000

[Jedi Master Carr]

I actually might luck out and get 25 points anyway because I should get Master and Commander right I am the closest one to it.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yup. You will most likely get 25 points. Syo seems to get #3 right. And I should get 30 points for #1. Other than, it seems to be a big fat zero for #4-5, which is a shame because I was the closest predicting those :p

As for the estimates, I am really impressed by Elf's performance. 12.5% drop is absolutely awesome. I am beginning to think it will outgross Matrix Revolutions before the year is over.

[Jedi Master Carr]

And speaking of Matrix 66% drop that is horrible, the way it is going it might not make 150.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yep, at this rate, it won't beat T3's 150M. Further down the list is Bad Boys II at 138M..

You know the funny thing is, if you had said that a couple of weeks ago, everyone including me would have thought you were a nut :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

I would have thought somebody was crazy if that said that too.

[Master Yoghurt]

With the kind of drop offs were looking at, it has an eerie resemblance to another movie which fell faster than a meteorite. Question is, can it "beat" The Hulk's 56% drop off, or are we going to see another 65%+ drop? <img src=http://thegjo.com/smileys/hide.gif>

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=hulk.htm

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't know I think it will make more than the Hulk but still it will probably just make 140 in the US. They better hope it does better overseas.

[ReaperFett]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
They better hope it does better overseas.
Why hope? Both sequels have combined made a stupidly high amount. It's a large drop, but I don't see them seeing the Matrix sequels as anything less than a success.

And I believe the Matrix movies traditionally do better abroad.

[Master Yoghurt]

The reason is, Revolution cost $150 million to produce and had $30 million in marketing cost, adding up to 180M. Then concider only 55% of the ticket income goes to the studios, and this may actually hurt the DVD set-box sales which could have been a huge cash cow, it starts to become somewhat of a concern.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I can guarentee there won't be any more sequels with this drop. What is very funny is that Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secerts came out this same weekend last year and it made more money (about 91) than the top 5 combined this weekend. I think if HP 3 had opened this weekend I bet it would have crushed all of the films.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Jeez, that's a crash and a half for Revolutions. Well, they got their money with Reloaded. I'd have to view the performance of M:Rev as disappointing, very disappointing. After the cuts for revenue, WB's slice would be looking thin, if anything they would be negative on this one. Good thing they go the cash with Reloaded!

I guess WB hoped that they would be more like New Line and LOTR - the third movie just being pure profit, with everything already paid for and a big profit already in the bank, even after revenue cuts. Didnt quite work out that way it would appear. Revolutions would have to be eating into the profit of Reloaded.

[Jedi Master Carr]

WB is better off relying on Harry Potter from now on at least they now they have 4 hits right there.

[Syo]

Well I wouldn't have gotten #1 even had i kept Elf as the top movie and not changed my pics.

I guess I can still hope that a miracle happens and Master and Commander gets the top spot.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
WB is better off relying on Harry Potter from now on at least they now they have 4 hits right there.

As long as they keep the quality up. POA is looking bloody good so far

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think they have picked a better director, I think they have a good producer (Heyman) running it as well.

[Master Yoghurt]

Oh, and did I mention those 30M in marketing cost are domestic. Worldwide, WB reported more than 100M in marketing the movie. So that makes an estimated 250M in total costs for marketing/production. And in addition there are the prints costs. Each print costs between $2000-3000 to make. So that makes between 20-30M for the 10,000 prints, not including the costs for shipping/distributing.

[ReaperFett]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
Oh, and did I mention those 30M in marketing cost are domestic. Worldwide, WB reported more than 100M in marketing the movie. So that makes an estimated 250M in total costs for marketing/production. And in addition there are the prints costs. Each print costs between $2000-3000 to make. So that makes between 20-30M for the 10,000 prints, not including the costs for shipping/distributing.
No you didn't mention it, but it is also never mentioned for every other movie which is released. You're also not including the fact that merchendising such as the MCFarlane figures are apparently selling well and the Reloaded DVD did a good/great opening IIRC. Add everything together, and these sequels have made a good deal of money.

Wonder if we'll be having this argument when Kill Bill part 2 comes out and (inevitably) doesn't do as well as part 1. Because in many ways, they can be compared. Filmed together you have a very linked story. Granted Kill Bill was originally one movie, but the end result is that you have two highly linked movies. As the costs are shared, can we not also share the profits, and see them as a combined Power Rangers-esque big robot?


Oh, and one thing I want to show:

Star Wars - $322,740,140
ESB - $244,650,259

25% drop from the original. That sequel must have done AWFUL! ;)




EDIT:
More stuff. Reloaded's drop was 60%, Revolutions was 66%. I'd expect to see a similar performance, except lower.

Now, let's do some sums. Ignoring overseas marketing, how have the sequels faired?


281,553,689 + 456,400,000 - 150,000,000 - 50,000,000 + 114,154,000 + 195,000,000 - 150,000,000 - 30,000,000

= $667,107,689

And this number will rise :)

[Master Yoghurt]

The overall success for the Matrix sequels is not in doubt. Its the success of the third movie which is up for debate. After the DVD sales, merchandise, toys, videogames etc, its probably (I hope) going to make some profit. But not by as much as the studio heads would have wanted, I am sure of..

As for ESB, 244M was an insane amount of money back then. A 25% drop to the most profitable movie ever is not bad by any standard, especially with a $18 million budget. In fact, adjusted for inflation ESB has the 12'th highest gross ever. Matrix revolutions on the other hand will have a much higher drop, won't hit the top 100, probably not even the 200 or 300, a mediocre profit/expense ratio and its merchandise does not reach Empire's toenails, so peh :)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Now, let's do some sums. Ignoring overseas marketing, how have the sequels faired?


281,553,689 + 456,400,000 - 150,000,000 - 50,000,000 + 114,154,000 + 195,000,000 - 150,000,000 - 30,000,000

= $667,107,689

Your ignoring overseas marketing when proving a point??????? -_-

No.

You have Also ignored revenue cuts that are made (Not profit, revenue) esp with overseas ditributors. Village Roadshow in aust typically get 80% of the revenue, or even have the rights for Aust bought for a fixed price, say 1 million and WB never sees another Aust cent. Then there is theatre cuts, director and producer cuts, any actor cuts.... while Reloaded would have clearly made money, it is by no means anywhere near what your suggesting. Revolutions would be in danger of being in the red for it theatre run. It may go black with the DVD. DVD's tend to be more profitable apparently.

I dont doubt Matrix has made money and because of Reloaded, a resonable bit. For WB tho, Revolutions to me appears will eat into Reloaded's net profit this year.

Edit : Oh, I also checked the figures. On day 12, Reloaded on 209 million, Revolutions on 114 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Sure it will make a profit but still, I don't see WB making any more sequels I think they are finished with these films.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Since the actuals are out Yoghurt you are calculating the points right? Should be easy this week :p

[Master Yoghurt]

Weekend Actuals

1 Elf $26,325,613 -15,4%
2 Master & Commander $25,105,990 NEW
3 The Matrix Revolutions $16,415,384 -66,1%
4 Brother Bear $12,056,067 -34,9%
5 Looney Tunes: Back in Action $9,317,371 NEW
6 Love Actually $8,698,030 +26,3%
7 Scary Movie 3 $6,105,246 -43,5%
8 Radio $4,808,366 -33,4%
9 Tupac: Resurrection $4,632,847 NEW
10 Mystic River $3,244,465 -32,2%

[Master Yoghurt]

Winner of Movie #1 Master Yoghurt
Winner of Movie #2 Jedi Master Carr
Winner of Movie #3 Syo

This weeks points
Master Yoghurt: 30
Jedi Master Carr: 25
Syo: 20
ReaperFett: 5
Marcus Elessar: 5

Season Totals
Syo: 95
Master Yoghurt: 85
Reaperfett: 40
Jedi Master Carr: 50
Marcus Elessar: 25
Ryan Pode: 20

[Jedi Master Carr]

Woo I am in Third place again :) That is where I finished the Summer one.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yup, and its a close race, so everything can happen. Maybe I could recruit some more people to play next weekend, to make it more exciting. It is certainly not to late to enter with all the double points weekends comming up :)

Next weekend, there are two more wide openers. The Cat In The Hat at 3,300+ theaters and Gothika at 2,200+ theaters. Love Actually expands into 1,800 theaters and (spoiler) Matrix will once again have ouch-ouch drop offs. The weekend after that, its thanksgiving with double points for all the movies! <img src=http://www.thegjo.com/smileys/cheer.gif>

[Jedi Master Carr]

Next weekend should be easier, I think Cat in the Hat will be #1, not sure about Gothika should be top 5

[Master Yoghurt]

I think next weekend will look something like this:

1. Cat in the Hat
2. Elf
3. Master & Commander
4. Gothika
5. Brother Bear

Gothika is a bit of a mystery. The trailer seems to target an audience mainly around 20-30 years old, maybe some in the 15-20 group as well. No 30+ers. Most likely #4, but maybe it will take the #3 spot if the reviews are strong. Cat in the Hat, I allready heard of, so that should post some fairly strong numbers. Trailer seems to target the family audience, so it will compete directly with Elf, although Elf has a wider appeal. Elf should once again hold fairly strong, around 20% drop or more, but probably lose #1 spot to the cat this weekend. Master & Commander should lose maybe in 30-40% region. I expect Revolutions to drop out of the top 5 with a 60% drop, getting beaten by BB..

[ReaperFett]

Originally posted by Marcus Elessar
Your ignoring overseas marketing when proving a point??????? -_-

No.
Yes, as I have no solid evidence to overseas marketing. I like to keep my facts factual :)


Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Sure it will make a profit but still, I don't see WB making any more sequels I think they are finished with these films.
Which is lucky, considering the Wachowskis wont be anyway :)

[ReaperFett]

So let us see. First, I will use what information boxofficemojo.com gave me today:


281,553,689 For Reloaded in the US
+ 456,400,000 For Reloaded out of the US
- 150,000,000 For making of
- 50,000,000 For US marketing
+ 114,154,000 For Revolutions in the US
+ 195,000,000 For Revolutions worldwide
- 150,000,000 For making of
- 30,000,000 For US marketing

So far, we are on $667,107,689.



Now we begin assumptions.

First, how much will Revolutions finish? Now, the 1st week drop for Reloaded is very close for Revolutions, so I will unscientifically work final figures out based on how Reloaded did.

Now, Reloaded roughly made 45 of it's total gross in the US in weekend 1 (IE, Wednesday-Sunday). If Rev did similar, this would bring it's final tally to...186,200,000

Now Worldwide. Reloaded in the US was 60% of it's worldwide, using the above figure once more we get...310,333,333


So, we presently have a figure of.........854,487,022



Now, DVDs. Reloaded sold 4m copies in the first day of release. I am going to assume that it will make the makers $100m. I'm more than certain they'd get 40-50m in the first week, and adding in the Christmas market too, I can't see why it couldnt make more. 954,487,022


Now I must assume for Revolutions. For this, I will guess $75m. I say this because basically, there is no deadline, I'm just giving a figure before sales start to slow totally. Ballpark time, end of 2004. This 75 would include any inevitable boxsets, which will make a decent ammount. 1,029,487,022


Overseas DVD sales. Unlike cinema, I'll assume that worldwide will make LESS on DVD. First, I don't know how DVDs sell in most of the world. Second, this way it counters if I went over the top with the US figures. So, I'll say 75m for Reloaded, 50m for Revolutions/boxsets. 1,154,487,022


Now, overseas marketing. Yog told me that Revolutions cost $100m for this. Now, considering in the US Rev was 30 and Rel was 50, Im going to stick to 3/5, making Reloaded cost $150m. Now we're at 904,487,022


Licencing is my final one, because it is hardest to work out. This is a wide category, ranging from people paying them to use Rel/Rev in promotons, various products being made and then TV rights. We're talking McFarlane toys, we're talking comics, two games, Coca Cola (family), a lot of countries.....$200m sounds a decent figure. ABSOLUTE worst case scenario, $100m. But I say 200.



This brings my totaliser to.............1,104,487,022.


Now, this isn't scientific, and we'll never find out. But I used my head about these things, and came up with this number. A billion made, nothing to be sniffed at.

[Syo]

I think next week will be a lot easier than this week, are we doing a long weekend for the 26th and thanksgiving.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yep Wed thru Sunday it will be a big five day weekend. Thankgiving though will be tough with Haunted Mansion, Timeline, The Missing and Bad Santa.