What movie do you think is going to make the most money?

[ADarksideJedi]

The movies are "Lord of the Rings the return of the king" and "Star Wars three" and "Harry Potter three"These movies are on the top list any guesses which is going to make the most money?JM:angel

[Figrin D'an]

If I had to venture a guess, I'd say Return of the King, simply because it's going to get enourmous Oscar buzz (already is actually), and will likely have a sizable run in theatres.

Although, if Episode III gets good early reviews, that combined with the fact that it will be the final Star Wars film could attract enough patronage to push it over $400 million domestic gross.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well WW it will be close between ROTK and the Prisoner of Azkaban, I think both will make over 850 WW and might make as much as a billion. Domestically it will probably be different, ROTK should do 330-340, although the running time (if its true) could effect it. Episode 3 will do about 300 could make more it really depends. HP will do 250-300, I think it will out do COS because the POA is the best book in the series, IMO.

[Marcus Telcontar]

ROTK is an absolute lock for 900 WW. The only thing against it is the running time. It has absolutly everythign else for it.

If Jackson dont get Best director, there will be a riot I bet. ROTK would have to be soooooo screwed up for him to fail this time around. I personally see the senario where ROTK gets the big two and nothing else, or it sweeps big. The chances of the just getting at least director is right now huge.

[Charley]

Why should Jackson get best director?

[Jedi Master Carr]

It is impossible to say at this point what will win. One movie that might come and surprise people is Cold Mountain staring Jude Law and Nicole Kidman. It is a civil war epic and it sounds like the type of film that will do well at the Oscars.

[Master Yoghurt]

Box office wise, I think ROTK is going to be the biggest in the 340-350M district followed by SW second (300+) and Harry Potter on third (250+). However, if SW3 is received well with better hype, it could make $400M. ROTK could also make more, but that depends on the Oscar buzz.

I am not so sure ROTK will win any major oscar. The Oscar is a movie studio market driven popularity contest and the Academy is a weird bunch of movie critics with no taste or clue what they are doing. That is of course just my opinion, but nonetheless true.. ;)

[JMK]

I also think if Lucasfilm hypes Episode 3 as the last Star Wars film ever, and the 'birth of Darth Vader' then it could end up as number 1. I believe that the running time of RotK may end up hurting it, I know it won't prevent me from seeing it at least 3 times, but a lot of average movie goers may not want to spend about 4 hours at the theater more than once.

[darth_mcbain]

I definitely think that HP will come up third out of the three choices. Not to say it won't do well - but I don't think it will have the power that the other two have. It will be a tough one between ROTK and EPIII. I'm hoping for EPIII, but I honestly think ROTK will probably do better.

[JediBoricua]

I'm thinking ROTK will win both the domestic and WW gross.

ROTK appeals more the 'general public', while EPIII money making power will be in it's hardcore fans, which are more that LOTR fanbase IMO, mostly becasue SW has had 25 yrs to build it's base.

I know that LOTR has been out for over 50 years, but the movie fanbase is not more than three years old.

[Master Yoghurt]

I believe that the running time of RotK may end up hurting it, I know it won't prevent me from seeing it at least 3 times, but a lot of average movie goers may not want to spend about 4 hours at the theater more than once Thats very true. I dont think the running time will help ROTK's box office at all. Such a move will likely dicsourage random moviegoers and people with short attention span watching it multiple times. It is a very nice gesture to the fans though. It indicates PJ wants to finish the trilogy with style and respect to Tolkien's vision.

I personally think this will be the best chapter yet. This will be the one movie to bind them all. So much great content being saved up for the grand finale. What really excites me though, the drama and the story of the third part of the trilogy of books is something really special. I think ROTK will be amazing, even by LOTR standards, possibly better than the two previous movies together. What I have seen from interviews seems to confirm that suspicion. At least one can hope..

Btw, have you guys noticed there seem to be lot less advertisements and pre media hype compared to the previous LOTR movies? I think New Line is aware they dont need to hype it up so much long time in advance. Basically, unless you have been living under a rock, you will know there is a LOTR movie in december. Maybe thats how their marketing department is reasoning. In the last few weeks though, I think there will be a very massive buildup.

[Ardath Bey]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt

I am not so sure ROTK will win any major oscar. The Oscar is a movie studio market driven popularity contest and the Academy is a weird bunch of movie critics with no taste or clue what they are doing. That is of course just my opinion, but nonetheless true.. ;)

I bear no grief towards the Oscars and those that work behind it's scenes. Though their final votes are frequently screwed up. I think they ignore the superficial (style over substance). Rather examine an individual's achievement and recognize it.

[JMK]

I think they ignore the superficial (style over substance). Rather examine an individual's achievement and recognize it.
I agree. The Academy won't fail to recongnize PJ for something, whether it's best picture or best director.

Going back to Box office talk, I don't see how a family of 4 or 5 can get to the theater to see RotK and sit there for that long with little kids like that. Think about it, to prepare 2 or 3 young kids to go out, and then get to the theater and have them sit there for what will be almost 4 hours including trailers, that's got to be almost impossible to do without sedating your kids.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
The Oscar is a movie studio market driven popularity contest and the Academy is a weird bunch of movie critics with no taste or clue what they are doing. That is of course just my opinion, but nonetheless true.. ;)

Hmmm no movie critics *exist* in the Academy. :p It's made up of industry professionals. They're most likely influenced by critcs, but they themselves are not critics.

AMPAS Breakdown (2002):
5,739 Total voters
1,315 Actors
459 Producers
430 Executives
409 Writers
409 Sound
368 Public relations
364 Art directors
364 Directors
362 Members-at-large
299 Shorts
247 Music composers, lyricists
217 Visual effects
216 Film editors
170 Cinematographers
110 Documentarians

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually WW HP will beat out Episode 3. SW is not that popular WW. WW HP might come close to ROTK. HP: COS made more money overseas than TTT did so I have a feeling that POA will make more overseas than ROTK (POA is considered the best book in the series by the fans). The difference will be domestically, I think it will make 270-300 in the U.S which will be the difference.

[Dutchy]

What's with the ROTK Oscar buzz? Why would it be much bigger than with the previous two?

[Master Yoghurt]

Originally posted by CMJ
Hmmm no movie critics *exist* in the Academy. :p It's made up of industry professionals. They're most likely influenced by critcs, but they themselves are not critics.

I knew that :p. Even though they don't make a living by critizising movies professionally or puplicize reviews, they still classify as critics in my mind because they classify and compare movies in order to select the best movies of the year in the most influental movie award in the industry. Its in that sense I think of them as critics.

What I did not know was the exact statistical composition of the board. I also did not not know that were actually absolutely *none* professional critics in the Academy. THATS very interesting! Thank you for the information :)

[Figrin D'an]

Originally posted by Dutchy
What's with the ROTK Oscar buzz? Why would it be much bigger than with the previous two?


There's been a fair amount of talk among industry-types that say, from what they have seen, ROTK is the best of the three films. That, and people are expecting that ROTK will have a very good shot to grab at least one of the "big two" awards (picture or director). There's hype among many that the Academy would want to acknowledge the entire LOTR project in some way with a major Oscar, so some think that ROTK get boosted votes by those who wish to award it Director or Picture as a nod to all three films.

Whether that has any measure of truth to it or not, who knows. I do know that, IMO, there hasn't been much this year that has really impressed me, nor has there been much that strikes me as the kind of film(s) that Academy voters would faun over. I'll wait until I see it to make any kind of judgement, but it seems that ROTK does have a few things going in it's favor at the moment, in terms of Oscar potential.

[Mortaniuss]

I think that, what Episode 3 will have going for it over ROTK is running time. SW geeks, like us, will be very likely to see it more than once (I think I saw AOTC 3 or 4 times in theaters). I'm doubtful that very many people will be going to see ROTK more than once.

[Master Yoghurt]

I do know that, IMO, there hasn't been much this year that has really impressed me, nor has there been much that strikes me as the kind of film(s) that Academy voters would faun over

That is IMO the single most important factor which could elevate ROTK's chances. Where are the oscar customized "frontrunners" which normally gets hyped up months before they appear in theaters?

I have a feeling though, this will be like other years. Suddenly, they pop out of nowhere and reek in movie awards like there was no day tomorrow, while most of the movie going public has not not even heard about them. In the end, a movie like that will probably snub ROTK for the major nods.


I think that, what Episode 3 will have going for it over ROTK is running time. SW geeks, like us, will be very likely to see it more than once (I think I saw AOTC 3 or 4 times in theaters). I'm doubtful that very many people will be going to see ROTK more than once

I can only speak for myself, but despite the running time, I am pretty determined to see it 3-4 times in theatres. The same amount as FOTR and TTT and the SW prequels. I think normal people (Im not normal), will be less inclined to see it that many times.

[Ida Knoe]

I saw LOTR:TTT 2 times in the theaters and I may do the same for ROTK

[Figrin D'an]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
I have a feeling though, this will be like other years. Suddenly, they pop out of nowhere and reek in movie awards like there was no day tomorrow, while most of the movie going public has not not even heard about them. In the end, a movie like that will probably snub ROTK for the major nods.


This is my perception as well. Right now, there is nothing in terms of Academy hype, other than ROTK. It'll probably stay that way until late November, then a couple of indy/smaller films with crop up that will cause critics and Academy voters will wet themselves.

[Figrin D'an]

As a complete sidenote, there is supposed to be a new ROTK trailer that will play in front of Matrix Revolutions and Elf.

I also read today that "The Alamo," originally scheduled to open around Christmas, is being postponed until April. It's somewhat a big deal, since some felt that it could have been a Oscar contender if it was well made. But, it won't be eligible for this year's awards now.

[CMJ]

Most of the buzz around town was that "The Alamo" wasn't a very serious contender - hence the release change. They'd get lost in December.

[Charley]

I saw TTT twice in theaters. FotR, on the other hand, I saw five times.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I read the Alamo was having problems. Actually the movie that I think will sneak up and surprise people is Cold Moutain. It comes out in late December, it is a civil war epic film based on a very popular and critically acclaimed book. I think it will get a lot of nods especially in the acting categories. Nicole Kidman and Jude Law will get nods I bet, I have even heard rumors that Natalie Portman might snag a supporting nod for it (people who have seen it says she is great in it). To me that seems like a possible Dark Horse it fits with the tradition of the late Winter films to win Oscar.

[CMJ]

I wouldn't classify "Cold Mountain" as a Dark Horse. Other than ROTK, it has more buzz than any other movie out there.

The most buzzed movies around town...

1. Return of the King
2. Cold Mountain
3. Big Fish
4. Mystic River
5. The House of Sand and Fog

I expect these to be the nominees.

[JMK]

What, no more Seabiscuit? ;)

[CMJ]

"Seabiscuit" is a darkhorse(pardon the pun). It's lost alot of it's buzz with the July release. Universal will probably start pushing it in another month or so(the backpage in yesterday's Variety was an Ad for Academy screenings at various theatres).

Right now I get the sense that Sb is in 6th or 7th place. It could still sneak in, we shall see.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I was going by USA today, they called Cold Mountain a Dark Horse and acted like Master and Command, the Last Samuari and even the Alamo (sees what they know) had better chances at winning the Oscars. I have a feeling it will be the movie to do it if the trailers are any indications.

[CMJ]

USA Today is clueless. ;)

Though I can see "Master and Commander" sneaking into the top 5. The Academy has never really given Peter Weir his due, even though he's a beloved director. Plus it's a epic. The Academy usually loves those. I just can't see more than 2 epics getting in(it happens occasionally, but not often). Right now ROTK and CM seem to have the Epic slots nailed down.

As always though, it's a fluid situation. The nominations aren't for another couple of months.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Heh I was surprised with that article myself I can't see why they think Last Samuari will get nominated, I guess Cruise could get a nomination if he was great in it but the movie probably won't. I guess it will depend on how good Cold Mountain is but from the trailer it looks like a very moving film.