Box Office Contest Week 3 Due Friday by Noon

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay its time for Week 3 and since the Matrix comes out Thursday we shall have it for 4 days. So Post the Matrix numbers for Thursday-Sunday and if you get it right you will get double points, 2-5 shall be same as usual. Your predictions will be due on Friday I'm going to say by noon (I doubt they will post Thursday numbers before that).

[sirdizzy]

1. Matrix Reloaded 116.27
2. X-men 2 23.45
3. Daddy Day Care 15.23
4. Down with Love 14.11
5. Identity 4.78

[sirdizzy]

haven't ya guys learned yet, you can't beat me when i pick first muhahahahahahaha

[JediBoricua]

Matrix is rated R right?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yep also it is showing in 2500 theaters Wed, they are calling it previews (I think most of the shows are between 10PM-12AM) I guess those will be counted with Thursday numbers not sure if that will mean anything or not. Also Down with Love is only premering in 2300 theaters that is a tad low not sure what to make of that.

[CMJ]

1. Matrix Reloaded - 106.98M
2 X- Men 2 - 19.04M
3 Daddy Day Care - 17.51M
4 Down with Love - 16.03M
5 Lizzy Maguire - 4.56M

[JediBoricua]

1. Matrix-110.1010
2. X-Men 2-20.35
3. Down with Love-17.21
4. Daddy Day Care-16.98
5.Identity-5.01

[sirdizzy]

and cmj your 6 months early on predicting matrix revolutions so ya better change that so ya don't get 0 points

matrix reloaded is coming out not revolutions

[Marcus Telcontar]

Geez, I dont know..... whatever Guru says

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here is guru they only have the top 4
Matrix 125
X2 21
Daddy Day care 19
Down with Love 13

So Marcus you want to guess the number 5 movie?

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Matrix Reloaded 118.45
2 X2 22.65
3 Down with Love 19.22
4 Daddy Day Care 17.42
5 Lizzy McGwuire 4.99

[ReaperFett]

Matrix Reloaded 119.99
X2 19.99
Down with Love 14.99
Daddy Day care 13.99
Lizzy McGwire 5.99

[Marcus Telcontar]

5. Lizzy Mc 5.49

[Jedieb]

1. Matrix Reloaded 125.567891
2. X-men 22.567890
3. Daddy Day Care 18.987654
4. Down with Love 14.987654
5. Lizzy 4.123456

[CMJ]

Well it set the opening day record with a STAGGERING 42M+(OMG what a number!). Let's see how it holds on.

[Jedieb]

42M? HOLY CRAP! When you throw in the fact that it's rated R that's very impressive. Unless it falls completely on its face I think I've got #1.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think that is because it made over 10 million on Thursday really that number shouldn't count to its Thursday number it really made 32 million which is about what Star Wars Made last Thursday, I am certain it will not beat Spiderman's 115 for the 3 day it will probably do about 80-90 in that frame.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
I think that is because it made over 10 million on Thursday really that number shouldn't count to its Thursday number it really made 32 million which is about what Star Wars Made last Thursday

Nope, it made $5M on Wednesday evening, so about $37M on Thursday.

[ReaperFett]

Dutchy is right, It made the SECOND highest first day opening.

I'm expecting large dropoffs in weeks 2 (possibly) and 3 though. For an R rated film to make so much so soon is an amazing feat, but is it because everyone is seeing it now?

[Dutchy]

Plus it made the highest 10pm preview screening (topping Jurassic Park's 1993 record).

Reloaded's Friday estimate is $31.2M. It could have a shot at $130M for the 4 day opening.

[ReaperFett]

Is 10PM previews a big thing then? Or are there two films who did that :)

[Dutchy]

Nope, there are more. It's not a big thing, but it's still a box office fact. :)

[ReaperFett]

Ahhhh. Just wondering because I see a lot of Thursday previews at about Midday, with many more showings that day :)

[Dutchy]

The Guru wrote:
the anticipation for Reloaded was arguably higher than for Episode II

Too bad we can't see Jonathan writing 80 lines proving that to be totally wrong. ;)

[ReaperFett]

Episode II, yeah. But then, the anticipation for Revolutions would be the same as EPII. Reloaded can only really be compared to EPI, as it is the return of a big thing.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't know it might have made more than 5 million on Wed. Mojo was saying it made 10 on thursday, WB is very tight lipped about it so we might not know for a while. Also I think they did more than just shows at 10PM there was a theater near me that was playing it all day on Wed so I wonder about that I bet it made more than 5 million. Still, it will not make 100 million for the weekend that is a certainty now. SM's record is safe it will survive until at least next year (either HP 3 or SM2 could challenge it though)

[Dutchy]

The-numbers.com says:


That performance is somewhat ahead of our expectations, which might be because the gross on Wednesday night was lower than originally rumored - Warners are saying it was around $4 million.

[Dutchy]

Mojo was talking about $5M, not 10:


Reloaded grabbed an estimated $5 million from its Wednesday 10 p.m. showings at 2,750 theaters, according to the studio's executive VP and general sales manager of domestic distribution Jeff Goldstein. "For a strictly 10 p.m. show, that's a record," Goldstein noted, but he cautioned that an exact number was not available. "As any studio will tell you, it's difficult to say for sure what a movie like this did at 10 p.m. as some theaters report it and some don't."

The 10 p.m. preview record had stood unchallenged for 10 years after Jurassic Park devoured it with $3,132,632 from 1,432 theaters back in 1993. It went on to set the then opening weekend record with a $47,026,828 haul at 2,404 venues.

That's also where I got the 10pm record thing from.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well on Thursday they said something different I think they were reporting yesterday what WB told them. I don't know but if more theaters like the one near me had shows before 10PM I have to say that it made more than 5. Mojo will probably clear this up on Monday. Also I don't think it will even do 90 for the 3 days now this is my guess (I don't see a huge increase on Sat)
31.5
32
24

So that would mean 87 million It could make 90 but it would need to have a big increase on Saturday and I don't see that because of the Wed-Thursday thing. Still that is at least 125 for the 4 days that is big but I see it being very front loaded it will probably end up making about 280 for the year.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
So that would mean 87 million It could make 90 but it would need to have a big increase on Saturday and I don't see that because of the Wed-Thursday thing.

I DO see that because of the Wed-Thursday thing. It will play more like a normal Friday now, I think, since audiences really eager to see it saw it already on Wed-Thursday.

The-numbers predicts (Sat/Sun) the weekend as follows, btw:

Day Daily Gross Cumulative Gross
Thursday $42,508,303 $42,508,303
Friday $31,465,000 $73,973,500
Saturday $38,000,000 $102,000,000
Sunday $32,000,000 $134,000,000

http://www.the-numbers.com/interactive/newsStory.php?newsID=250

[Jedieb]

I think MR is going to pass $300M. If you look at BHCop's old numbers and adjust them for inflation it's easy to see a rated R film can top $300M if the appeal is wide enough. I just can't see many 16 year old's being kept away from MR because of its rating. It'll get to $300M.

[Marcus Telcontar]

MR could go a long way past 300 million, simply because people will go back to see it again. Now it's being discussed, I think most people will go back just to catch the stuff they missed and work out what really happened and what it's all about.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't know I think 16 year old will get in but by sneaking in, Theater are more strict about who they will let in. I also don't see it getting past the low 300's, it has a very narrow appeal, (teenagers and 20-30 year old males). It will not do SM numbers IMO. I still think ROTK will be the #1 movie the Matrix Reloaded could be 2nd (the Hulk could still challenge that though).

[Marcus Telcontar]

Narrow appeal?!?!?!?!?!? Not from the audience that was there at my screening!

[ReaperFett]

Marcus, I could argue Daredevil didnt have a narrow appeal because I was in 5/6 full cinemas the three times I went within the first three weeks. Only way to find out is to watch the actual numbers :)

[sirdizzy]

hmmm this is a movie that really needs to be seen twice maybe three times to catch all the little hidden things

i have seen it twice and plan on seeing it a 3rd time

but it also a movie that has gotten a lot of split reactions from its crowds

[Marcus Telcontar]

Fett, you dont get such huge numbers catering to a specific audience. The movie HAS to have some sort of broad appeal.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I don't see the Matrix catering to families there is no way that people will be bringing their 8 year old to see it (if they do they are crazy) and most people older than 40 probably wouldn't want to see it, at least I don't know of any. Also Reaper is right that it is too early. Also realize there are a lot of young people who will see this right away and that is why it has opened so high. I just don't see it doing LOTR numbers because I don't see it having the appeal of those movies by a larger audience like FOTR and TTT had.

[sirdizzy]

my dad is 54 and he wants to see the movie so you equation is right out the window JMC


and i have been to a lot worse movies where there were 8 years olds in attendance like from hell, we were soldiers,etc

and we had some kids behind us for the matrix reloaded who couldn't have been older then 12

another theory of yours right out the window

[sirdizzy]

oh and did i mention i live in the religious, over zealous zealot capital in the world

and i see young kids in rated r movies all the feaking time

i blame it on the fact that mormons apparently don't know what birth control is

[Marcus Telcontar]

In Aust, MR is an M rated film - kids are allowed in with an adult.

[Dutchy]

Mojo puts Reloaded at $137.5M for its 4-day opening weekend: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2003&wknd=20&p=.htm&PHPSESSID=2303e27c5d189852750aeff55cf35b95

$95M for Fri-Sun, beating HP's all time #2 weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am sorry but I know a lot of people over 40 who don't want to see my Parents come to mind they didn't even like the first one and anybody taking young kids to the Matrix should be having them taken away those movies are just too violent for kids 2-10 to be seeing.

[Jedi Master Carr]

You are two million off it is 93 million for the 3 days.

[Jedieb]

1. ``The Matrix Reloaded,'' $93.3 million. ($135.8M)

2. ``Daddy Day Care,'' $19.2 million.

3. ``X2: X-Men United,'' $17.1 million.

4. ``Down With Love.'' $7.6 million.

5. ``The Lizzie McGuire Movie,'' $4.5 million

Those are Exhibitor's estimates. None of us expected X-Men to keep falling this hard or Daddy Day Care to hold this strongly.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
You are two million off it is 93 million for the 3 days.

Not when I posted that. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am really disapointed with X2 :( I was hoping for 250, it looks like now it will do 230 max.

[Princess Sunflower]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
I am sorry but I know a lot of people over 40 who don't want to see my Parents come to mind they didn't even like the first one and anybody taking young kids to the Matrix should be having them taken away those movies are just too violent for kids 2-10 to be seeing.

Well just about EVERYONE I know over 40 is excited about seeing MR and not just males. I haven't seen it yet cuz of my busy schedule this weekend. The money hunger mongers who owned the AMC theatre near me decided to close the theatre down for a retail store. Now I have to travel over an hour to see a movie on a decent screen.

I for one found "The Matrix" to be one awesome movie. I'm probably in a minority tho since I don't find too many females in my age bracket to have Sci-Fi movies be their #1 choice of movie.

[Marcus Telcontar]

MR = $134 million

Jedieb 125.5
Marcus 125

I hate you :p :D

[Darth007]

yeah lots of girls in my school want to see it plainly because Keanu is hot (not my description, theres! >_< )

And I was sitting next to 8-10 year olds, the pains wouldnt shut up. There is definately a wide audience to this.

Plus the fact that there really wasnt any gore, and the only blood was when Neo cut his hand and when Agent Smith was slitting his palm. And I've seen more graphic sex scenes on TV. Little kids will definatelly drag their parents along so they can get in.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I disagree young kids shouldn't be seeing this it is rated an R for a reason, I am okay with 12-16 year olds but 8 years olds are way too young.

[Jedi Master Carr]

First crash and burn weekend for some of us only a few got decent points

Here are the totals

Winner Movie #1 Jedieb
Winner Movie #4 Marcus
Winner Movie #5 Sir Dizzy

Totals
Jedieb 65
Marcus 25
Sir Dizzy 20
CMJ 15
ReaperFett 10
Jedi Master Carr
JediBoricua 5

Contest Totals
Marcus Elessar 130
CMJ 110
Sir Dizzy 110
Jedieb 90
Jedi Master Carr 65
ReaperFett 60
JediBoricua 50
Admiral Lebron 40
JMK 25

[CMJ]

Man, I'm in second still. Yeah. :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

Jedieb sure caught up have to say that

[sirdizzy]

no i am second, I am, tell him am second JMC

[Marcus Telcontar]

haven't ya guys learned yet, you can't beat me when i pick first muhahahahahahaha

:p

[Jedieb]

Marcus, you should have done more work than just "whatever Guru says." :evil

Damn, I'd be in so much better shape if I hadn't of missed the first week. Ah, I'll be stinking up the joint in the weeks to come so I might as well enjoy my brief moment in the sun.
:smokin

[CMJ]

Originally posted by sirdizzy
no i am second, I am, tell him am second JMC

We're BOTH in second dude. :p

[sirdizzy]

soon i will be in first


and you should have got 0 points anyways cmj because youpicked for revolutions not reloaded

[CMJ]

Look at my pick dude. :p

[sirdizzy]

i feel so jipped

[Jedi Master Carr]

He changed it besides I would have took it I knew what he meant. A few people wrote down Matrix I wouldn't pentalize them either.

[sirdizzy]

no no no, matrix revolutions comes out in november how do you know thats not what he meant

[Jedi Master Carr]

Because I know CMJ knows a lot about movies I don't see him making that kind of mistake.

[CMJ]

Not only that, I switched it before the deadline. Moot point.

Get a life bro. ;)

[sirdizzy]

nonononono i refuse to admitto defeat


and i know a lot about movies too whats your point