North Korea

[Jedi Master Carr]

Anybody else not worried about North Korea


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20021226/wl_nm/korea_north_dc_11

To me they are the biggest threat in the world, and they worry me. I also don't like Rumsfield's war talk with them. To me that is not an option. North Korea has an army of 1.4 million that is huge, probably twice Iraq's arm, they also have better equipment and better weapons, plus to get to North Korea there is a huge minefield inbetween the borders. Second they have at least two nukes, do we want to risk them sending one towards Japan and another towards South Korea? Finally there is China, I don't care what people, say China is their ally, and if they are attacked China may very well come to their aid. And if that happens it could trigger WW III. And the only ones who might be safe are those in Europe.

[JonathanLB]

I do not believe that our officials want any part of war with North Korea, if you read the articles, like the one on CNN's front page I just read before I came here. Bush and the others don't consider North Korea that big of a threat and are not worried, so they aren't getting any rise out of us.

They are dangerous, yes, compared to Iraq anyway, but when it comes down to it, they present no danger to the United States whatsoever. If we wanted to destroy that entire country, it would take no more than a few cruisers sent to the region and a massive airborne retaliation. Who cares how many troops they have? That has not mattered since frickin' Vietnam. This is 2002. We don't need troops. Give me 2,000 Air Force strike planes and a support staff including carriers over 10 million soldiers, which cannot do anything and pose zero threat.

If we wanted to end the threat entirely of North Korea doing anything, we could just go and strike their strategic facilities, seeing as we know where they have this material, and that would be the end of that. It would also be a really stupid response because there is no need for violence here and I'm very anti-war especially in a case like this, but am I worried about that rinky dink country? Hell no. I'm worried about future terrorism, I'm not worried about any other country. We could obliterate any of those smaller countries with no more than a few days work.

North Korea has been a major problem for a long time. If they even thought about launching nuclear weapons against a nearby country, I am positive nobody would miss the government or their land when 100 nuclear warheads landed on every inch of their country and turned it into the biggest crator since the one that destroyed the dinosaurs. It would be a shame only for the innocent people living there. As far as I'm concerned, the government and its employees are worthless and if I were God, I'd destroy them immediately so that the people would not be labeled as "evil" when likely it is just their idiotic, violent government.

Let's hope for everyone's sake it doesn't come to that. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Jon what the heck are you talking about if we did that China would then proceed to nuke us, and wipe us off the face of the earth, sure they would be gone too but who cares if its just the cockroaches inhabiting the earth. I pray our government has more sense than that.

[ReaperFett]

They're dumb enough to say their in the Axis of Evil. I mean jeez, you dont sit in school hurling insults at the guy who will punch you, do you?

[Admiral Lebron]

I do... :(

[JonathanLB]

What are YOU talking about Carr? Wow... Read up dude, China is not with North Korea, in fact, we're not even sure that China has enough influence with N. Korea to make them step down from this brinksmanship and we are trying to go about it diplomatically by pressuring Russia and China. Nonetheless, who knows if that'll work, China isn't with North Korea. I don't know why you think that. And, no, China would not Nuke us if we disabled North Korea's ability to use nuclear weapons. You are insane if you really think that. They know as well as we do that if they launched on us, or we launched on them, the other party would respond with equal force. Nobody wants that. China's government is not crazy or stupid.

What I said is IF North Korea used one of those couple of nukes they can make on a neighboring country, we would be justified in massively retaliating with our own nuclear warheads and nobody else would retaliate against us for that. North Korea stands alone. It's not like you are attacking a member of a big alliance, you're attacking one single country that will not receive any support from anyone if they really did use a nuclear warhead.

So again I say, what is there to worry about?

The diplomatic process will hopefully work this all out without any bloodshed.

As for the Axis of Evil comments, those were STUPID. You don't go threatening other countries like that and insulting them when they are not even your enemy at the time. I don't understand what possessed him to say that. I don't care how evil North Korea may be, you still don't say that. What good does that accomplish?

If you want to say that Al-Qaeda is evil, fine, they are evil and we are at war with them, but you don't use such terminology for countries that you should be talking with diplomatically. Ugg.

[Darth Viscera]

Iraq poses a bigger threat than North Korea because they have shown, and continue to show, offensive intentions. North Korea has been around for 50 years with only desultory attempts to renew the war (they dug 4 tunnels that led halfway to Seoul, then the South Koreans found out about it), and they may very well continue to hide behind their concrete fortifications until their government collapses. They're not going to start a war, not while they don't have Beijing and Moscow slavedriving them.

Saddam, on the other hand, tried to invade Kuwait again back in '94, and would try yet again if not for our presence there.

[Jamel Croko'yn]

Simple words to put it..

North Korea is a piece of crap yo--just throw a nuclear bomb at 'em and blow 'em out off the map, lol :)

America must be more aggresive, forget the dang peace-tree huggers

[Sanis Prent]

Jeebus...I hope neither Jon nor Idris are ever in a position to command American soldiers in war. The nuclear option is not. And just remember, no matter how advanced "push-button" warfare is now...the most advanced weapon in a nation's combat arsenal is the human combat system, ie, the infantry. It has been that way for thousands of years, and will not change.

North Korea is dying as a nation. They desperately want to agitate the situation, and gain a foothold against the U.S. and South Korea. China is not the ideological buddy that it was in the 1950's. They're having capitalist growing pains, and I seriously doubt they, or anybody else, want to go to war over Korea again.

[Silex Invictus]

The infantry is the most important, I think infantry went out with WWI or if you don't remember, the trench warfare that basically had everyone in a stable mate until tanks were brought in. 1.5 million troops mean nothing. Not with B-2's and F-16's. North Korea doesn't have the Navy to move those troops anywhere near american soil, 2 nukes are a joke. That's like trying to go against a SWAT team with two barrel loaded flintlock pistols.

China has 12 Nuclear Missles capable of striking US soil, compared to well over 1000 Warheads that we have capable of hitting China. But Nukes are a null factor unless in the hands of a Terrorist. I'm not scared of the nation that wants 10 nukes I'm scared of the guy who only wants 1.

IMO (because it's anything but humble) America should tell most of the rest of the world to saw off. Pull our troops out of foreign lands tell them to keep their own peace. Trade with countries but stay out of alliances. We were once an autonomous nation, now we have to see what NATO and the UN think. Personally I don't care what France, England or Russia wants the US to do, we run our country and you run yours. But no one listens to me :(

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think China would defend them if we nuked them, because the radiation would affect them so of course they would retalite. Actually I think North Korea is more dangerous the nation is starving, and when people are starving that is when there is trouble, they could decide to invade the south and use their nukes as blackmail, if that happens who knows what will be the consquences. Really we should negotiate they are doing this probably as a political tool, give them a bunch of food and fuel and they will probably disarm, IMO.

[Sanis Prent]

IMO (because it's anything but humble) America should tell most of the rest of the world to saw off. Pull our troops out of foreign lands tell them to keep their own peace. Trade with countries but stay out of alliances. We were once an autonomous nation, now we have to see what NATO and the UN think. Personally I don't care what France, England or Russia wants the US to do, we run our country and you run yours. But no one listens to me

Do you realize how foolish that is? Do you read history books? The last time the US enacted a policy of isolationism, the world's wounds festered and grew until they produced Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and Fascist Italy. Leading the way in global affairs isn't a clean or easy job, but I'll be damned if it isn't a necessary one.

Carr, China isn't that nuts, I'm sorry. No nation is going to get into a nuclear exchange with the United States. MAD is one hell of an acronym, and to China, in no small talk, it says "You can kill a bunch of us, but by God, we can kill ALL of you, the rest of the earth, and a few other inhabited planets over a few times and back again." They're as estranged from North Korea as they were with the former Soviet Union, and the communist fiefdoms in Indochina.


Really we should negotiate they are doing this probably as a political tool, give them a bunch of food and fuel and they will probably disarm, IMO.

So every time a belligerent nation rattles the nuclear saber, we should start handing out goodies? Yeah, that'll work...

[Marcus Telcontar]

How about all you USA armchair strategists, STFU! Your administration were the ones that ruined a good 10 years of work by South Korea, Australia and Japan with this Axis of evil crap. Until your big mouthed IDIOTS in charge started that up, N. Korea, who I may add is not run by loonies, but by resnably rational people with eye on their own survival, was beign bought step by step out of the cold and slowly bought closer to S. Korea.

The ASEAN countires actually had N. Korea going in the right direction and I think that if the USA suddenly didnt turn around and declare them part of an Axis of evil, they would be still going down the road to unification to S. Korea, which I may add is the right thing and is the wanted thing. N. Korea aint un by loonies, I'm pretty sure they were wanting to reunify at their own pace without losing face. Gently, gently.

And it was working until Big Mouth and your war mongers started up.

Angry anm I? Hell yes. And there's millions more in Asia in general pissed off at the USA and what is viewed as their bumbling bullying tatics. You in the USA seem to have no idea what your doing, or even of the general situation here in this area of the world and the more I read threads like this, I am more certain you dont want to know. You want a USA solution. Well, it's not wanted. Asia was doing quite allright without any help. Thank you sooooo much for settign back the clock to 1994.


Leading the way in global affairs isn't a clean or easy job,

Hey guess what. Most of the rest of the world doesnt want the USA to be the global cop. Your not liked and your attitudes and culture isn't liked. There's only 2 Billion just north of Australia who might just well share that opinion. Pakistan (500 million) China (1.3 billion), then add Indonesia, Malaysia....

This current crisis is totally the USA's fault. Honestly, who was the frigging moron that allowed that Axis of Evil BS?!?!?! As I've given hint to, N. Korea might be a current bad state, but it was successfulyl beign worked on, to the point reunification was actually seen to be an achieveable dream. Not any more. Thanks a frigging bunch GWB.

Grrr. I have no wish to see a nuclear exchange near me. Back off and I dont believe there will be one. Back off and let reunification take place. That way N. Korea ceases to be a problem. Hell, even China wants the Korea's reunified, to get a blood suckign leech called N. Korea off it's backside.

[Sanis Prent]

You know, if you don't like it...you can go take a flying leap. Be a little thankful that you aren't speaking Japanese, and being used as forced labor to build cheap bridges in Indochina. Yeah, so mistakes are made...but its a far damn sight better than the alternative. I agree the axis of evil comments were inflammatory and didn't help the situation, but there is a grain of truth in that.

[Jedieb]

You would hope that N. Korea is removing seals and starting up this program as a means to get the U.S. to resume shipments of aid. They probably want a new nonproliferation agreement out of the situation. N. Korea is trying to take advantage of the situation with Iraq in the hopes that the U.S. doesn't want to wage military campaigns on two fronts. Their language and actions are certainly more aggressive than anything that's come out of Baghdad. But then again, they believe a confrontation with the U.S. is unlikely, while Baghdad believes it's probably inevitable.

N. Korea can afford to talk tough and start making plutonium. They know they have room to negotiate. I was surprised to see how much the Bush administration was trying to rely on Russia and China. They seem genuinely surprised that Russia and China haven't taken N. Korea to task and gotten them to back off. I don't think the N. Korea situation will be resolved by any other nation than the U.S. simply because that's who N. Korea wants to deal with.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Hopefully that is the case, Jedieb, unforuntely we don't what they really want, if they are really disperate they could do anything. As far as China, I still think a war with North Korea could get China involved its a risk, they are still slightly allies, why else would the US, want them to talk to them. They aren't because they don't really care.
Also back to the comment about Isolation, I am not completly for it, I do think we should close our bases in Germany its stupid to still have them there, there is nobody threatening Germany and Western Europe now. And I don't think the Germans will cause problems again.

[Sanis Prent]

Carr...those bases in Germany are forward deployment points for other hotspots that DO flare up and CAN cause trouble (Iraq, Balkans, Soviet splinter states)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Sure keep the bases but we don't need to be spending billions of dollars defending Germany, at least that is what I read we are doing in US and News Report.

[Sanis Prent]

Cite a link, please?

[ReaperFett]

Sure keep the bases but we don't need to be spending billions of dollars defending Germany
Can we stop defending your installations here then? Other countries do that too.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Shoot I read that a couple of years ago, I just rembered them saying we could save money by stop giving money to Germany for defense or something to that extent. If we are that is stupid there is no reason to defend Germany now, of course that could have been cut from the budget in the last couple of years.

[Darth Viscera]

Originally posted by Marcus Q'Dunn
Asia was doing quite allright without any help.

Asia is doing quite alright without any help because it's being helped constantly by the U.S.A. It's the yankee greenback which is funding Asian growth. Who do you think buys their exports? We do. We spend billions every year on Asian products, and in exchange, they're supposed to turn around and spend billions on U.S. products. They don't, however, because they like to screw us over every chance they get. They turn around and use much of those U.S. dollars to buy weapons from Russia, France, Israel, everyone but the U.S. We end up paying for it at home-John Q. Taxpayer gets shafted and is forced to move into a refrigerator box down by the 7-11 because China doesn't have any interest in buying the electric toothbrush-mobile that his newly bankrupt company used to produce.

Yeah, we've got ourselves a real bargain here. We give Asia the gift of cash, and they get to flip us the bird.

Maybe if a few other countries were as selfless as the US and decided to strip its citizens of free health insurance and use that extra cash to feed a few third world countries, maybe then said citizens would feel rather shafted when that third world country didn't buy goods from its benefactor as it's obliged to do. I know that I would LOVE free health insurance. I would cry if someone gave me that gift. It would alleviate many problems in this household.

When you look at an Asia that's on its way towards becoming prosperous in the next century, just ask yourself what we've given up to get it there, and how deep into debt our country is for having been so generous.

God bless America, and God bless George Walker Bush.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Dont take my words out of context. I was quite obviously referring to the N. Korea situation.

[Darth Viscera]

???
North Korea is doing quite alright without any help?

[Sanis Prent]

I have a nuclear missile, Marcus. Give me a million dollars and I won't use it. If my bank account is still absent of a million dollars by tomorrow, you have no room to talk in this scenario.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I'm not even going to dignify your your post Sanis any further

Vis - N. Korea was on the road to Reunification with S. Korea, which is the real soluton to this problem. Japan, China, S. Korea, Australia, Malaysia were working on this and it was even working. Things were going quite well and even normal diplomatic relations between N. Korea and Australia were happening. Then the Axis of Evil comment came out and undid 10 years of hard work.

There were suggestions reunification was possible by the end of the decade. Now.... * sigh *. Reunification was the solution and if N. Korea had to be bought, well S. Korea was willing to do it and could do it. The rulers of N. Korea arent insane, they know their country is doomed and hasnt got a real long time to live. Things were going quite well until the Axis of Evil comment.

:-/

Some solutions dont need wars and sabre rattling. Good solutons, peaceful ones that work.

[Sanis Prent]

Some solutions dont need wars and sabre rattling.

We're saber rattling with namecalling, but North Korea just wants peace, love, and unification with weapons grade plutonium, on the pretense that they need nuclear power? Contrary to...I dunno...voodoo...a nuclear reactor is not going to solve their power crisis. If you think that it is, don't walk and chew gum at once, it'll only cause pain. They're shooting themselves in the foot with this, and you want to see an energy crisis there now? That plant isn't going to be making power. They aren't importing fuel. I wonder if these people realize how cold a Pyongyang winter is.

Let me put it in perspective. If this was about the Axis of Evil, then we would have had these issues a helluva lot closer to when that comment was made...almost a year ago. North Korea is gambling on blackmail...pure and simple.

[Darth Viscera]

If north korea was on the road to unification, ready to be bought and all that, where did those two nukes come from?

While the two koreas were having "normal diplomatic relations", as you say, north korea was secretly screwing over the 1994 agreed framework and building nukes with which to decorate Seoul. North Korea's president flat out fooled you if you expected anything more. Not surprising, considering he's an evil genius.

I'm sorry, but your explanation of this loving diplomacy and future reunification that was planned is riddled with holes the size of Kalashnakov ammunition, as their recent nuclear revelations indicate.

[Evil Hobgoblin]

I have to agree with Charley and Vicera on that point. You don't tell the world you have weapons grade plutonium and nuke projects running unless you want fear as a reaction. If you want people to back off, you tell them you're working on some compromise solution. You don't use fear, you use appeasement. You use fear when there's something you want to get.

[Marcus Telcontar]

you have ignored the cultural exchanges, the handing over of kidnap victims and the thawign of relations between N. Korea and Japan, the fact some trade was beginnign between N. Korea and Asia and that China was doing it's best to push N. Korea to reunification too.

Asia knew N. Korea had nukes. We also know they have the missile delivery systems. We also knew N. Korea doesnt have the resources to fight another large scale war. Food for instance. We also know reunification is the solution. Maybe living in this part fo the world, where N. Korea is within reach might change your words and actions.As I said, things were going quite well until the Axis of Evil comment. That was dumb and it set back the real solution a decade.

N. Korea got it's hackles up because of the Axis of Evil comment. And a lot of what it is doing, right now, is in direct response to the USA's words and actions.

[Sanis Prent]

Keep in mind, they purposefully let loose this revelation when military preparations against Iraq are being stepped up. Do I think North Korea wants a war? Absolutely not. They're in worse shape than in 1950, and I doubt the Dragon will be backing them up at the Yalu this time, if there is a "this time". They want, however...more than just the appeasing oil and other stipulations than they get in the 1994 treaty. So...they ante up, wait for a time when the US is least willing to deal with an escalating situation, and they play blackmail. Hey! American Capitalist Imperials....we have a nuclear weapon! You'd better give us Christmas Presents!

Marcus...why don't you ask any random person in Seoul if they think there has been a "warming of relations". They'll laugh you back to the Sea of Japan.

[Evil Hobgoblin]

Hackles or no hackles, that move was even worse than Dubya's comment, if hindsight does actually prove him wrong. We won't know until this all plays out. The ball is rolling, after all, beyond the ability of individual people posting on a chatboard to stop.

[Admiral Lebron]

Marcus, they give into the little things to buy time. The more time they get the more Nukes they can make. Its plain and simple.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Marcus...why don't you ask any random person in Seoul if they think there has been a "warming of relations". They'll laugh you back to the Sea of Japan.

Dont you think I might come into contact with Koren ex-pats here? Or the fact we have a Asia coverage bias here, cause this happens to be where Australia is, and concerns places like us and Japan a lot? Asia hour on Radio National for starters, for the large Asian communities of Australia. Up until the Axis of Evil comment, there certainly was a thawing and hopes of reunification.

As for the nukes... dunno why your surprised. It was my impression N. Korea had them since about 98. It's also been well known they had mid range means of delivery too.

Now I could tell you all the political and economic measures and pressures to get N. Korea out of the cold, but obviously your not going to listen, so I'm not going to bother. I'm not going to bother about tellign you why those ecomonic measures are made that stop weapons liek this endign up in lunatic hands. Nor the political either. Clearly the course is set in a game of nuclear brinkmanship. Well, hope it's good watching from your comfort zones on the other side of the planet.

[Darth23]

Define irony:

A country with 50 zillion nukes freaking out over a country that might have 3 or 4.

It's a good thing we still have all those landmines in the DMZ to protect us.

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL Darth. Also I don't understand why people are still shocked that they had nukes, I figured they had nukes for a few years now, I have even read reports in various magazines. If our CIA didn't know this then we need to get rid of a lot of people. Now Marcus I agree with you that Axis of Evil comment was so stupid and I think it might have made North Korea act a little more tougher. Also North Korea is staring to have a lot of problems people are going to start starving to death soon, so they will use the Nukes as their only weapons now. Also it will be catasphoic if we go to war, sure they are not the same shape as 1950, but I predict that more people will die probably double. I think we will lose thousands of troops probably more than any war since WW 2, and if N. Korea uses a nuke a million people could die or more (from radiation sickness) a lot of our troops would probably die too. And then if we nuke N Korea there could be consquences, China could get real angry and could retailate. This is the dangers and I think people underestimate what could happen, to me its scary and I feel we are better of giving them the economic aid like South Korea wants and then work into unifying the country, that to me is the best solution.

[Jedieb]

This is the dangers and I think people underestimate what could happen, to me its scary and I feel we are better of giving them the economic aid like South Korea wants and then work into unifying the country, that to me is the best solution.
Someone please give JMC a job at the state department!

As I get older I just find myself less willing to agree on courses of action that lead to war. Been in one already, don't want to see others go through any others. It's naive, but it's a starting point I wish others would take. I hope that eventually N. Korea's bluster will be dealt with diplomatically. I think that the odds for success are far higher there than in Iraq.

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL Thanks Jedieb, I am sure I could end this crisis :p And I agree with you about diplomacy I think that is what North Korea wants and are using the nukes to try to get it. So far the US won't give into their demands but they might have to at least talk to them. South Korea seems to want to I saw on CNN thousands of South Koreans protesting and burning American flags they are pissed at us so you are wrong Sanis it looks like a lot of South Koreans don't see things that way. Also the incoming president is pressing for diplomacy with N. Korea, hopefully that will happen.

[Darth Viscera]

Originally posted by Jedieb
I hope that eventually N. Korea's bluster will be dealt with diplomatically. I think that the odds for success are far higher there than in Iraq.

That would be extremely difficult, seeing as how we can't trust North Korea. They blatantly defied the 1994 agreed framework that Jimmy Carter worked to build. What makes you think that any new peace treaty won't be similarly defied? Another 8 years of oil supplies would mean an extension for their nuclear program, and in 2011 they could have 30 atomic bombs and 70 thermonuclear bombs, as well as a long-range delivery system. Instead of a potential 300,000 deaths which would arise from the 2 atomic bombs they have now, we could be facing 500 million deaths. We can't trust them to halt their nuclear program. How can we possibly start up diplomatic talks under these conditions?

And another thing, how the heck did they manage to produce those 2 atomic bombs when we have had monitoring facilities in Nokor since the framework was put in place? They must have built another reactor which can be kept secret.

[Marcus Telcontar]

As I get older I just find myself less willing to agree on courses of action that lead to war. Been in one already, don't want to see others go through any others. It's naive, but it's a starting point I wish others would take. I hope that eventually N. Korea's bluster will be dealt with diplomatically. I think that the odds for success are far higher there than in Iraq.

Well said.

And JMC, you are absolutly correct. S. Korea WANTS reunification as it is the final and best solution to N. Korea. I would not be surprised if S. Korea simply buys N. Korea out. One big fat massive bribe and then buy a reunification? Hey, it's been suggested and until the Axis of Evil comemnt (I cant emphasis how much damage that did), it was a serious suggestion. S. Korea dosnt want a war, N. Korea doesnt want a war either.

And yes, anti US feeling is notible in S. Korea. The incoming president has a history of it apparently.

[Jedieb]

As a kid I never thought that I'd see German reunification in my lifetime. The cold war lines were that entrenched. If that country could reunify then I don't see why it's not possible in Korea. Recent events have made it difficult, but it may be still possible, even this decade.

Now Marcus, what kind of government do see running Korea if its reunified?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I would think some kind of democracy, probably the current government in South Korea. And Darth do you want a war in North Korea? We could lose anywhere from 100,000-300,000 men, IMO. It would be a hard and dangerous war and their is the chance that China could become involved which would esculate things and could bring about the end of humanity. Actually the US so far wants to work things out diplomatically, they don't see another way, they don't want to invade N. Korea.

[Diego Van Derveld]

Then those demonstrating students are outliers in 50+ years of South Korea practically begging for increased military support to the penninsula. Thank you for being so vague in your points Marcus. I know you'd rather "not get into it".

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I don't think they are outliners, according to CNN, the people are beginning to hate Americans in South Korea, what happened was a couple of soliders ran over some Korean teenagers and well the public was outranged, even more so when they were aquited, I think a lot of the anger has to do with that.

[Diego Van Derveld]

Lets see...

Military aid to keep North Koreans from swooping down and annihilating everyone > recent and minor domestic dissent.

Not saying that it isn't important, but I'm pretty damn sure they want to keep the American defenders they have, if not increase said number.

South Korea is closer to the United States than it is Australia, so I'm not exactly sure what relevance that point has. ;) That, and I know my fair share of expatriates as well. Congratulations.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Now Marcus, what kind of government do see running Korea if its reunified?

Basically, Democratic with Soeul as it's capital. Not actually a real lot of change from the present S. Korea, except they will have problems intergrating N. Korea, much like Germany has / had problems with the East.

Not sure what Japan's going to think of a reunified Korea with mid range nukes tho. The most diturbing thing is that you will have a fairly powerful nation with nuclear capabilities that is a fairly unknown quantity. I do believe that two of the precursors to reunification will be the the present rulers of N. Korea step down and foreign forces leave S. Korea.

The upside is that no one wants a war that is pretty much now a hopeless cause on both sides. And a pointless one, both Koreas now know that. N. Korea may have the military muscle, but in usign that, it would destroy what makes S. Korea valuable - it's industry and production. S. Korea knows it cant take back N. Korea by force, so I think the logical conclusion will be a economic and political reunification, maybe sooner than later.

[Darth Viscera]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
I would think some kind of democracy, probably the current government in South Korea. And Darth do you want a war in North Korea? We could lose anywhere from 100,000-300,000 men, IMO. It would be a hard and dangerous war and their is the chance that China could become involved which would esculate things and could bring about the end of humanity. Actually the US so far wants to work things out diplomatically, they don't see another way, they don't want to invade N. Korea.

What a silly question. Of course I don't want a war in Korea. I want the nokor communist government gone. You are the only person here who clings to the idea that China will get involved in a war and start a nuclear exchange. Perhaps they would do that if 30 million U.S. troops crossed into Sinkiang, but not over North Korea. In my opinion, the idea that they would just suicide themselves over their bastard child is highly dubious.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I said there is a chance here is a scenerio. Lets say there is a war and North Korea starts to lose well they have four nukes, one goes towards our forces in South Korea, the other towards Seoel, and the other two towards Japan. Then the US retaliates, what if one falls at the wrong end of the border and hits China you don't think they would do something about it? Regardless if China gets involved if we start a war I bet a million will die because North Korea will use their nukes because they will figure if I am going to die might as well take down south Korea and Japan with me. That is why the US will not invade North Korea plus none of our allies would get involved in that messy situation, you don't see Russia or China help us at all do you, you think either would support a war?

[Diego Van Derveld]

what if one falls at the wrong end of the border and hits China

The rest of your hypothetical is outlandish enough...but this...we don't "miss" with these kinds of weapons. This isn't WW2 or Korea, where a bomber crew carries this kind of ordinance and is subject to losing their bearings.

These weapon systems are redundant upon redundant with failsafes and guidances. Even in the astronomical possibility that a conflict went nuclear, which it won't (hell, I'll put 100 dollars to say there won't be a military conflict at all), the weapons would be precise. That much, you can take to the bank.

[Darth Viscera]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
I said there is a chance here is a scenerio. Lets say there is a war and North Korea starts to lose well they have four nukes, one goes towards our forces in South Korea, the other towards Seoel, and the other two towards Japan. Then the US retaliates, what if one falls at the wrong end of the border and hits China you don't think they would do something about it? Regardless if China gets involved if we start a war I bet a million will die because North Korea will use their nukes because they will figure if I am going to die might as well take down south Korea and Japan with me. That is why the US will not invade North Korea plus none of our allies would get involved in that messy situation, you don't see Russia or China help us at all do you, you think either would support a war?

Forget about our strategic missiles hitting China, for the reason that Diego mentioned. If that's all you can think of that would incite China to join choson in a war on the south and the allies, then you have nothing to worry about in that respect.

As for everything else you said, I think I can summarize: You're worried that choson will go to war and use its nukes on us, the south and japan. Well, so am I. The White House says it's being worked on-new policies to further blockade choson, which is a good thing when they get openly uppity and hostile. Remember, it's up to choson not to pull their triggers, not us. We didn't start the last korean war of communist aggression, and we won't start the next one.

They can get rid of their WMDs and start receiving U.S. food and oil again, for all I care. It's up to them, but if I were Kim Chong-il, I'd be jumping at the chance to avert mass starvation.

[Jedieb]

How exactly do you "precisely" control the fallout? Last time I checked, those redundant failsafes were put in place by humans. If we can mistakenly bomb a Chinese embassy, then a mistake can be made with a nuke. I don't see how you can use one anywhere near a border without both nations decrying it's use.

China and Russia may be better suited to handle a diplomatic solution, but neither one seems willing to step up. The Russians are probably secretly enjoying the difficulties we're having. Who knows what the Chinese are thinking. The N. Koreans are getting what they want for the moment.

[Diego Van Derveld]

Buildings are one thing...entire cities are another entirely.

[Jedieb]

So you can precisely target military targets inside an entire city with a nuke?! And there's no way to control the radiation and the fall out. You're at the mercy of the weather then. Nuclear weapons and the words precise should never be used in the same sentence. A scalpel is precise, a chainsaw isn't.

[Diego Van Derveld]

The targets are much larger with nuclear ordinance. Missing with said weapons is not a game of inches and feet that it is with conventional arms. Also...the weapons have far more failsafes than conventional warheads have.

In this extreme hypothetical...you're not going to get a war over which way the fallout drifts. At worst, we'll get a series of angry letters. That, and prevailing westerlies should carry any such fallout into the Pacific. Not sure fire, but then again, this hypothetical is about as practical as talking about Elvis being alive.

[Jedieb]

Are you trying to suggest Elvis ISN'T alive?!o_O I agree with you, I think we're more likely to get a series of angry letters. I don't like any of the other hypothetical situations.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think we would get more than angry letters. At least I would think there would be boycotts or something half the world would hate us and there would be other things that could happen. Still in that situation you are talking about probably 1-5 million dead within 5 years those are kind of numbers that I would rather not see.

[Diego Van Derveld]

And you realize that the probability of this hypothetical is ludicrous (notice, I use bold letters to emphasize)

[Evil Hobgoblin]

You know, I don't think the U.S. would retaliate with nuclear weapons even if we or our allies were hit with them by NK. We would use plenty of other bombs, for sure, but this is the kind of small scale conflict that absolutely does not merit nuclear aggression. Not only would the U.S. citizenry not stand for it (nuclear bombs terrify us, too), but the likelihood is that the US would win in a conflict of this nature. Using nukes would make things a lot worse than it needs to be and would solidify attitudes against NK, which is not something they would want. If your side is the one that pulls the plutonium-based weapons out of the bag and you lose, there will be hell to pay regardless of whatever started it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

If our soliders were killed in a nuclear attack I think we would retaliate with nukes. Also I don't think the possibility is ludicrous, I think right now its 50-1 at best, because if there is any war in North Korea, I am certain North Korea would use them. Right now I don't think the US will invade them, unless they make some radical changes. So at the moment it would have to be North Korea to make the move. Actually I think the most likely place for a nuclear exchange is India-Pakistan, they scare me, all it would take is a war to break out and then Pakistan or India could use their nukes which would be a disaster.

[Dutchy]

I saw a documentary about North Korea today. They showed actual footage of a normal day at work, home, school, etc.

What a sad, sad county. I was disgusted by what I saw.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The place is a nightmare. I still say North Korea is the biggest threat to the world, especially to North East Asia. And Bush has done nothing about them.

[Charley]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
The place is a nightmare. I still say North Korea is the biggest threat to the world, especially to North East Asia. And Bush has done nothing about them.

What do you want? A gun-shy interdiction of a nuclear power like your hero Kennedy did with the Bay of Pigs? You're a damned if you do, damned if you don't superstar.

[Jedi Master Carr]

You have to be more agressive. Otherwise you are just letting him sit there and think he can get away with it. Those talks did nothing. Heck I think they were bad. North Korea wanted to talk to us alone and instead we bring in other countries. We should have agreed to that, IMO. Besides what Kennedy did was right, it worked out, IMO.

[Charley]

HAHAHAHAHA please never run for any office higher than quilting bee chairman.

Sorry, but you don't play "go get em" when you're dealing with a nuclear power.

[Jedi Master Carr]

What do you do? Sit on your hands. Kim is a mad man that is true. He could snap and decided to do something or heck sell those nukes to terrorists. Should we allow this? You have to be carefully I admit but I think Bush has failed. He though Saddam was worse than Kim. To me it is the other way around.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
The place is a nightmare. I still say North Korea is the biggest threat to the world, especially to North East Asia. And Bush has done nothing about them.

And we in Asia in range respectfully ask Bush to shut up and not make Axis of Evil comments. He's done enough "helping".

As much as Alexander Downer is a fat boob, he's actually done more to defuse Nth Korea thanthe USA ever could or will. China and Australia are the best to solve the issue, both countries have real influence or real lines of communication right to the top of the dictactorship. China can because it's the primary backer and Australia because it's one of the very few Western Countries with any interests or ties. ASEAN also are working on the problem, because a rogue nuclear power in their backyard isnt a good thing.

I'm sure ASEAN-China-Australia can settle Nth Korea IF Kim's rampant paranoia isnt fed. Hell, until the axis of evil comments, the whole region was actually having thoughts on a possible Nth-sth reunification, which seemed was an actual possibility. Which, I might add is the only real solution, but damned if I know now how that could ever happen. Maybe the solution will be to bribe Kim into exile with about 10 billion, as was being seriously suggested a few years ago. No one in the region wants Nth Korea to collapse, nor do they want a paranoid Kim with nukes.

But in most ways, it's not up to the USA to find a solution. It's us in the region. It's our problem, we'll need to sort this mess out. as I said, I really dont know how. I suppose ASEAN-Aust-China have got much better midns than mine working on the issue now.

[Charley]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
What do you do? Sit on your hands. Kim is a mad man that is true. He could snap and decided to do something or heck sell those nukes to terrorists. Should we allow this? You have to be carefully I admit but I think Bush has failed. He though Saddam was worse than Kim. To me it is the other way around.

So you think we should pursue an armed invasion of a nation that is nuclear status unknown, rather than one in which we confirm that their program isn't in a deliverable status?

I don't like your flavor of Russian Roulette one bit.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I heard there was a suspicious mushroom cloud in North Korea two weeks ago, but I don't know how true that is or not.

edit:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20040912/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_explosion


SEOUL, South Korea - A huge mushroom cloud that reportedly billowed up from North Korea (news - web sites) was not caused by a nuclear explosion, South Korean and U.S. officials said Sunday, but they said the cause was a mystery.

Secretary of State Colin Powell confirmed that unusual activity had recently been detected at some of North Korea's atomic sites, but said there was no concrete evidence the North's secretive communist regime was preparing for its first nuclear test explosion.

A MYSTERY? That's reassuring. "Well we know it wasn't nuclear." How!? It's a cloud two miles across! I'd like something a bit more concrete than "trust us, it wasn't." Somehow I think it was, and they don't want us to panic. *panics*

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
I heard there was a suspicious mushroom cloud in North Korea two weeks ago, but I don't know how true that is or not.

Mushroom cloud = true

Nukes = No. Likely to be huge accidental munitions detonation. Location was a well known location for missiles, shell storage and manufacturer

[Jedieb]

I don't think it was nuclear for the simple reason that Lil' Kim probably would have loved to have bragged about test detonating a nuke. But my first impression when I read about the size and nature of the "cloud" was that it was nuclear.

[Figrin D'an]

One would also think that, were it a nuclear blast, China would have been pretty visibly angry about it, since it occured rather close the N. Korean border with their country.


Still... that must have been a sizable munitions depot to create that kind of blast.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Nuclear explosions also have a signifigant flash and raising of radioactive readings. Neither of which occured. I dont think anyone outside of the media is seriously raising it as a nuke explosion. apart from the mushroom cloud, there are simply no other signs that will show up.

Plus, as Figrin correctly pointed out, China would be seriously enraged by such an event. That could be enough grounds for China to act and invade.


Still... that must have been a sizable munitions depot to create that kind of blast.

By all acounts, yes it was. Several kilotons of explosives at least. But, I doubt we'll ever truly know, except that it was not a nuke

[Jedi Master Carr]

Maybe North Korea did it to stir people up. Who knows. I don't trust Kim though he is a madman. Sure I agree Bush screwed up with the Axis of evil stuff, this made them angry. Now who knows what they are going to do. I think they are making the nukes to sell but if they get pushed into a corner they could launch them.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Maybe North Korea did it to stir people up

NO

Even if Kim is a nut, he's not crazy enough to annoy China, who would almost certainly cut him off or even invade. Kim wants to survive and grow fat and rich. Annoying your biggest benifactor sort of goes a long way to stopping that.


Sure I agree Bush screwed up with the Axis of evil stuff, this made them angry

Not angry... paranoid that they were the next target and they had to do somethign to deter what was looking to them like an imminent invasion. Which is silly to us, but not to them


I think they are making the nukes to sell but if they get pushed into a corner they could launch them.

Why might I ask would they sell nukes?

I ask this, knowing that Nth Korea has already found a far better way to gain hard currency, far faster and with less effort. It's called Heroin. Kim is one of the biggest drug Lords on the planet, if not the biggest. Did you know a Nth Korea flagged ship was caught in aust waters that lead to one of the world's biggest heroin seizures ever? Not 100's of kilos mind, tons of the stuff. Nth Korea is estimated to supply 4 billion dollars worth a year and growing.

So why would they even bother with the pocket change a terrorist or another rogue country could come up with? selling nukes, even in the delusions of the Kim dictactorship, doesnt factor to the drug money. I believe most of the heroin grown in Asia moves via Nth Korea now. I am prepared to be proven wrong, this last bit is vague rumour only.

Edit : correction on the drugs bust. It was largest in dollar value, and the weight was somewhat less

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well this is speculation on people who know Kim. They think he is trying to find more fiancial revenue. Who really knows the truth there. About the first part, I mean blow up a weapons depot to make people notice North Korea. China would know it was no Nuke but North Korea would be on the front page again. But who knows what happened up there.

[Dutchy]

I was surprised how the anti-America attitude seemed to be part of the law. Huge billboards with American soldiers humiliated and singing anti-America songs in school. Looked more threatening to me than Saddam ever was. That is, as far as threatening the USA or western countries in general.

Again, what a sad country. Actually, it was laughably dumb.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Dutchy
I was surprised how the anti-America attitude seemed to be part of the law. Huge billboards with American soldiers humiliated and singing anti-America songs in school. Looked more threatening to me than Saddam ever was. That is, as far as threatening the USA or western countries in general.

Again, what a sad country. Actually, it was laughably dumb.

Actually, the songs and signs are propaganda and dont normally exist. I have a link somewhere about someone who managed to get a resonably unbias look at Nth Korea - astoundingly interesting for one, sad as you said, deeply so.

Damn, the link is now dead. That sucks, because it was one of the best things I've ever read about Nth Korea.

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/2001/0122/korea.doctor.html

Both the dead link and the one above make it pretty clear Nth korea isnt really a credible threat to anyone in the long run. The place is collapsing. Also, it's citizens are very interested to know what's really south of the border. There's hope I guess that Korea will be reunified. Lets hope it's not because the North has collapsed, as well could happen, especially with China getting less and less willing to support. It's strange, but China becoming a superpower may well hasten Nth Korea's demise, because China isnt liek the old Maoists days anymore. It knows it being scrutinied and it has ambitions. especially with the Beijing Olympics in 2008, China will be doing all it can to look good. Supporting Nth Korea no longer lines up with any of it's aims. If anything, it's a hinderance and burden they no longer want - to become a genuine military and more importantly, economic superpower. Which I might add, it's well on the way to being. I dont know if that will be a good thing for the USA and Europe, but I know Australia and ASEAN stand to make a great deal of benifit.

[Jedi Master Carr]

North Korea would be a threat to the south and Japan if they have a nuclear arsnel. Who knows what Kim would do with it. Sell it, blackmail other countries,etc. People have been saying North Korea is going to fall apart for 20 years now and so far they haven't. I think Kim has better control over that country that people know or think.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I don't think it's the citizens of North Korea we're worried about, but their leader.