Holiday Box Office Contest Weekend 8 LOTR weekend (9AM Thur)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay here is the TTT comes on Wed so I figured I better get going you have until 9Am Thursday morning to get them in. And this is how it will work you guess 5 day totals for TTT, 3 for everything else, got it? You still will get doubled points for all five films, I figure we need all the help we can get :p And if you want you can pick the 5 day numbers for LOTR now and pick the rest of the top 5 on Saturday 9Am if you do that please do it on two different posts or else I may not count the TTT's numbers.

[Marcus Telcontar]

1. Some movie about Hobbits and a ring -

Opens 32 million
Three day weekend = 72 million
Five day = 118 million

FOTR FYI opened with 18 million, did 47 million three day weekend, 75 million 5 day on 3359 theatres.


I know my numbers seem insane... but I really have the feeling I could be low. /me reserves right to change once I know theatre counts

2. Two Days notice - 13.2
3. Gangs of New York 12.5 million (1500 theatres)
5. 4. The Wild Thornberrys 10.01
5. Crap in Manhattebn - 9.2

[sirdizzy]

well i think gangs get doublke screwed on both ends it doesn't get the 5 day run and its only in 1500 theatres


1. The Two Towers 5 day: 82.11 million 3 day: 57.84
2. Two Weeks Notice 16.55
3. Maid in Manhatten 15.99
4. Gangs of New York 10.21
5. Star Trek Nemisis 8.01

[Jedi Master Carr]

Just to let you Two Weeks Notice comes out Friday as well I expect that to open big with Sandra Bullock it should really kill Maid, I think, so you might want to adjust your picks.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are Yogs picks

1. The Two towers 108.67M
2. Star Trek: Nemesis 18.67
3. Gangs of New York 16.67
4. The Wild Thornberrys 12.67
5. Maid in Manhattan 9.67

[Marcus Telcontar]

Opening - Gangs of New York
Wild Thornberrys
Two Weeks Notice
Morvern Caller

Could you have picked a worse weekend to open???? I'll review the rest of my picks on Thursday.

[sirdizzy]

thanks for the heads up, chick flicks do moderatly well so i changed mine

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Two Weeks notice will not get affected by Two Towers, people who go to that movie would never probably go to see TTT so actually that is a good alternative, Gangs of New York is only opening on 1500 or so screens so I think they are more interested in the Oscar Race. The Wild Thornberries, well its a kids movie but I doubt it would do well without competition.

[Jedieb]

I'm sorry I haven't had the time to play this time around, but I want to take part in the big TTT opening;

1. Some movie about Hobbits and a ring -

Opens 24 million
Three day weekend = 56 million
Five day = 93 million
2. Gangs of New York 16.5784(Thanks JMC!)
3. Two Weeks of Chick Flick Hell 14.5
4. Appalling crap in Manhatten 12.5
5. Nemesis 9 million

I really think this latest Trek offering could get buried. I always thought Trek movies could go on and on, but if Nemesis runs out of steam quickly, what's next for the franchise? I know that Paramount gets them made rather cheaply and has various revenue sources to draw from after the films release, but will they continue to go to the well if the B.O. returns are poor?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think this could be the end of Star Trek, maybe it can survive on UPN in Enterprise but the movies might be done for now. And Jedieb did you mean to put Two Week Notice 3 or 2nd? You got Gangs NY at 12.5, 2 million lower than Two Week notice.

[Jedi Master Carr]

TTT 105.22 5 Days 68.71 3 day
Two Week Notice 20.11
Wild Thornberries 12.21
Gangs of Ny 10.82
Main in Manhattan 10.33

[ReaperFett]

Yogs going to slip up because we forgot to tell him about bonus scores :)

And aopparently, Stewart wants to end Picard films.


Yesterday 11:58 PM Post # 11


TTT 111.11 5 Days 69.99 3 day
Two Week Notice 19.99
Gangs of Ny 14.44
Main in Manhattan 12.22
Wild Thornberries 11.11

[Admiral Lebron]

My two towers numbers:

Five day: 100.00

I would like Boxofficemojo numbers for the rest.

[Quadinaros]

1. TTT $81.62

Day1 $23
Day2 $11
Day3 $14.5
Day4 $17.62
Day5 $15.5

[CheapCheep]

Wednesday's box office numbers.

1) LOTR: Two Towers $27.5 $27.5
2 Maid in Manhattan $1.4 $23.2
3 Star Trek: Nemesis $.750 $21.4
4 Die Another Day $.650 $133.9
5 Drumline $.600 $14.6
6 Harry Potter 2 $.435 $224.0
7 Analyze That $.435 $21.2
8 Hot Chick $.410 $8.7
9 Santa Clause 2 $.300 $126.3
10 Empire $.225 $11.6

For comparisons sake here are last years numbers for FOTR's opening week:

Wed - 18.2
Thur - 9.7
Fri - 14.2
Sat - 17.5
Sun - 15.5
Mon - 11.6
Tue - 14.0

Here's the tracking data from last year, courtesy of the-numbers.com. :) :

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2001/LRDRN.html

[Jedieb]

whoops, ignore that. move along, move along...:crack

[CMJ]

Huge opening number....

[Jedieb]

hey, DAD opened higher than XXX and will outgross it as well despite being released in the winter as opposed to XXX's summer release. Weren't some hype junkies saying XXX was going to be the new king of spy flicks? I wonder how the 20th XXX installment will do? ;)

[Jedieb]

I think that's a strong opening as well, but I'm really anxious to see how it holds up. If it can have anywhere near FOTR's legs $300M should be doable. I don't expect it to hold as well early on because it's opened higher. But once it levels off I'd be interested to see if it can hold up well.

[CMJ]

Well, for the next 2 weeks it'll play to big numbers everyday because of the holidays. After that, who knows.

BIG time start though. I didn't expect it to be quite that high.

[General Tohmahawk]

I did. I saw that one coming. Already knew about sellouts and the theatre count, been tracking what it could do for a few days. Honesty, I thought it could have been higher, but still... no complaints.

I 'm pretty sure TTT is goign to play a good 5 million per day over FOTR's numbers at the least. More sellouts I've see reported and lines. Purists are hating TTT, everyone else seems to love it.

* Throws book over shoulder *

I'm just gong for ride :D

[Jedieb]

Are they really? I think I'm going to go check it out Monday afternoon. There's too much football for me to miss this weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I actually thought it would make 26-27 on wed, it made since, everybody rushing out to see it like SW. I think it will drop 50% on Thursday, school is still in most places and people do have to work. As for the weekend, I expect around 65-70 which would put it between 105-110 for the 5 days which is pretty good, still I expect it to drop some next weekend maybe only 40%, it could drop worst its third weekend. Really the legs will depend on Oscars nods, it got a few globe nominations, but I am having doubts if it will get any of the big oscar nods this year.

[CheapCheep]

Don't see any of the sites posting yet, but the numbers i've heard look to be at about the 14.0 M range for Thursday based on New Lines estimations.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think they are holding back because of Wed, New Line has since said its 26 estimate so nobody knows, I am guesing 26-28 for Wed and 12-14 for Thursday but that is just complete speculation.

[CheapCheep]

Yeah, their guestimates tend to be a little off, Won't really know until Sunday evening/ Monday morning. I think that's when they tabulate their weeklies.

[Master Yoghurt]

Box Office Mojo says $13,878,712 for thursday

[Jedi Master Carr]

So that is a 47% drop, not bad. It looks like its between me and you Yog, I am thinking now it will make between 104-109 for the 5 days so it will be either me or you, I am hoping to win two weeks in a row :p

[Master Yoghurt]

I think it will break the 100M mark for 5 days, but how much more I would have to see friday numbers to decide :)

Daily Breakdown Comparison:

FOTR:
Wednesday: $18,214,000
Thursday: $9,704,000 -46.7%
Friday: $14,233,000 +46.7%
Saturday: $17,463,000 +22.7%
Sunday: $15,516,000 -11.1%

3 day: $47,211,490
5 day: $75,129,468


TTT:
Wednesday: $26,159,972
Thursday: $13,878,712 -46.9%

Total Gross so far: $40,038,684

[Master Yoghurt]

If it were to follow the same pattern as FOTR, it would make:

Friday: 20.36M +46.7%
Saturday: 24.98M +22.7%
Sunday: 22.21 -11.1%

3 day 67.5M
5 day 107.6M

This might be more frontloaded though, so we will see..

[Marcus Telcontar]

Seems to be running 40% up so far. 100 m for five days is very doable.

[Master Yoghurt]

What I find interesting, the wednesday-thursday percentage drop-off is allmost excactly the same as for FOTR..

[Marcus Telcontar]

Friday numbers

1 (1) Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $19,707,000 +41.99%
2 (new) Two Weeks Notice $4,664,000
3 (2) Maid in Manhattan $3,280,500
4 (new) Gangs of New York $2,872,500
5 (3) Drumline $2,179,000
6 (new) Wild Thornberrys, $1,677,000
7 (6) Hot Chick, The $1,479,500
8 (4) Star Trek: Nemesis $1,475,000
9 (5) Die Another Day $1,037,500
10 (7) Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well if the numbers hold for Saturday and Sunday I might win yet again :)

[sirdizzy]

wow trek is tanking

[Marcus Telcontar]

Not surprising. who was the mug that released it a week before it's entire core audience was sucked into TTT?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I disagree, I knew Star Trek was going to tank when it opened under 20 million. It is finished, they could have released in March and it still would have bombed. And I think the series is over Stewart has said he won't do any more so unless they want to bring back Kirk or Spock or turn Enterteprise into movies, the movies are finished for now.

[sirdizzy]

no trek was tanking even before the two towers came out


hell it got its assed kicked by a chick flick

[Marcus Telcontar]

Estimates

1 N Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $61,500,000
2 N Two Weeks Notice WB $14,400,000
3 1 Maid in Manhattan Sony $11,000,000
4 N Gangs of New York Mira. $9,120,000
5 3 Drumline Fox $7,600,000

[Jedi Master Carr]

Damn, Star Trek droped 76% is the worst drop ever??? it fell second to 9th, Harry Potter passed it, which has been out for a while.

[sirdizzy]

told ya it was tanking

[Admiral Lebron]

OMG!!!! If the 5 day estimates are right, I WIN!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its between me and you now, it should be interesting. I wish I never had went with Thornberries what was I thinking there:x

[Marcus Telcontar]

Yeah, Nemisis went straight down the S-Bend. That's a hideous drop off.

[Admiral Lebron]

1. Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $102,046,212
2. Two Weeks Notice $14,328,494
3. Maid in Manhattan $10,712,011
4. Gangs of New York $9,496,870
5. Drumline $7,125,270

Looks like I win... by 204 thousand dollars.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Lebron was the big winner this weekend, with Dizzy doing very good as well. Here are the results
Winner of #1 Admiral Lebron
Winner of #2 Admiral Lebron
Winner of #3 Sir Dizzy
Winner of #4 Sir Dizzy

Admiral Lebron 100
Sir Dizzy 100
ReaperFett 20
Marcus Q'Dunn 20
Jedi Master Carr 20
Quadinaros 5
Jedieb 5
Master Yoghurt 5


Totals

Master Yoghurt 310
Admiral Lebron 220
ReaperFett 205
Sir Dizzy 200
Marcus Q'Dunn 155
Jedi Master Carr 135
Sene Unty 105
Quadinaros 90
JMK 45
Jedieb 25



Well Lebron gets closer only 90 points behind. Finally as a Christmas gift, I will go ahead and have the last weekend numbers another double weekend, just to keep interesting, I figure that Yog will keep his crown anyway but by doubling the points it at least gives Dizzy, Reaper, and Lebron a chance.

Any Objections?

[Admiral Lebron]

Damn. I would cry if I won this. After missing two weeks and this summers huge upset.

[Master Yoghurt]

No objections from me. My rivals will need all the help they can get.. :)

[ReaperFett]

Can I suggest that if we do this another year, the bonuses are a tad lower? People who are consistantly quite good get hammered by people who get a bonus or two (Happened in the summer one too). IMO, bonuses shouldnt be there to win people the game, they should be there just to give you a slight bump. It just seems a bit much to me that someone in the lower half of the table can be practically joint third after one week.

[Admiral Lebron]

If you are consitantly good than the bonuses won't matter. :p

[sirdizzy]

i am on a roll baby ;)


down with yoghurt

[sirdizzy]

and reaper we have now had 3 bonus weekends that means if you were consitently good ya would have picked up one of those 3 weekends


and i went first meaning i gave everyone a chance to feed off my picks

[ReaperFett]

consistantly good save 3 weekends can be ebaten by consistantly poor weeks save for the bonus weeks.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I like the bonuses because it keeps people playing the game, if they were lower or didn't have them, we could have a lot of people not playing at the end because they have no chance. Actually the bonus didn't matter over the Summer as Yoghurt was good at picking every week, the same with Lebron, even though he slipped at the end.

[ReaperFett]

But my bad weeks have always been the bonus weeks, now it looks like I could be fourth or worse :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't see you finishing worse than 4th, Marcus or me would have to have a hell of a week at this point. I also think it will be easier to pick the movies since they come out Christmas and we will all know what they made 25 and 26 before we pick. I was thinking about doing it a 5 day weekend initially, but I didn't think everybody would be able to post their picks before Christmas I thought it would be tough.