The Heisman Trophy

[Figrin D'an]

Time to have a discussion about the most over-hyped award in the history of sports... ;)


In all seriousness, though, this is arguably the closest race in the history of the trophy. Throughout the season, front runners came and went, leaving no single clear player above a group of really good ones.

For reference, here are the finalists, with some of their important stats...


Brad Banks, QB, Iowa Hawkeyes (11-1, Big Ten Co-Champions, Orange Bowl berth)
2369 yds. passing, 60.1% comp, 25 TDs, 4 INT; 387 yds. rushing, 5 TDs
- Lead nation in QB rating (166.1)
- Lead Iowa to first conference title and major bowl game in 11 years


Ken Dorsey, QB, Miami Hurricanes (12-0, Big East Champions, Fiesta Bowl berth)
3073 yds. passing, 55.4% comp, 26 TDs, 10 INT
- Is 35-1 as starting QB at Miami
- Lead Hurricanes to national title last season, will play for second national title on Jan. 3rd.


Larry Johnson, RB, Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3, 2nd-place tie in Big Ten, Capital One Bowl berth)
2015 yds. rushing on 251 attempts, 20 TDs; 39 rec., 341 yds, 3 TDs.
- Only 9th player in NCAA history to rush for more than 2000 yards in a single season.
- Broke NCAA record for average yards per carry for a season (8.02 yds/carry)


Willis McGahee, RB, Miami Hurricanes (12-0, Big East Champions, Fiesta Bowl berth)
1686 yds. rushing on 262 attempts, 27 TDs; 24 rec., 350 yds.
- Lead Big East in rushing and rushing TDs
- Had career high 205 yds rushing and 6 rushing TD's against Virginia Tech in last game of regular season.


Carson Palmer, QB, USC Trojans (10-2, Pac-10 Co-Champions, Orange Bowl berth)
3639 yds. passing, 62.9%, 32 TDs, 10 INT; 4 rushing TDs
- Lead USC to first major Bowl since 1995.
- Won Johnny Unitas Award, given to the nation's top senior quarterback


Since I started this, I'll post my opinions first...

Who is most deserving of the Heisman and why?

A tough call in such a close race. I believe that the Heisman Trophy should go to the the most outstanding player for a given season. It should not be a career award. Taking that into account, there is one candidate that sticks out in my mind the most... Brad Banks of Iowa.

Banks was the leader of perhaps the most explosive offense in the country. Iowa was about 3 minutes of bad defense away from being undefeated and playing for the national title. His TD/INT ratio is amazing, and he also was dangerous scrambling out of the pocket, or taking off to run. Take away Banks, and Iowa is only an slightly better than average team.

Who will likely win the Heisman and why?

Carson Palmer of USC. His outstanding performance against the highly-touted Notre Dame defense is fresh in the voters minds, and he closed the season with some very impressive numbers in his last 4 games. He has the pedigree, he's a classic drop back passer, and his team has been the best in the nation over the last month. He's already won the Unitas Award, and being the only major candidate from the west, he'll sweep that region in voting. Ken Dorsey and Willis McGahee will split the east coast voters, while Larry Johnson and Brad Banks will split the midwest vote. Palmer only needs to finish 3rd in the a couple of regions outside his own, and it should be enough for him to bring home the hardware.



So... post away with your thoughts, college football fans. :)


Edit Note: The five official finalists were announced at 6PM EST today (Wed.), so I have edited to reflect as such.

[Diego Van Derveld]

I unfortunately never really keep tabs on the heisman race. :\

[Figrin D'an]

That's okay... you can still have an opinion. :)

[Diego Van Derveld]

My unqualified opinion would suggest Larry Johnson, but thats probably because I'm partial to the Nittany Lions, and I think Dorsey played on a team with a laughably weak schedule.

[JonathanLB]

Onterrio Smith of Oregon. :)

[CMJ]

Without a doubt...Larry Johnson of Penn State. He is a remarkable running back.

Keep in mind I've seen Palmer ALL year long(hey I live in the same town for God's sake) but Johnson is my winner.

I won't be disappointed with any of the finalists but McGahee. IMHO he's not even one of the three best running backs in the nation. :p

[Darth23]

I say just give it to Dorsey and get it over with.

[Diego Van Derveld]

Ug...I really hope they don't.

[Figrin D'an]

I don't think Dorsey deserves it. I could easily name 10 QB's that have had better seasons than he had. His record as Miami's starter is impressive, but let's also consider that it IS Miami, afterall. They've had the most talent of any team in the nation for the past three years. Dorsey has a lot of weapons around him, a great offensive line, and an incredibly fast and athletic defense to keep other teams at bay.

He just wasn't the "most outstanding player" in college football this year. Not by a long shot. If they give it to him, it'll be because of his career accomplishments. One can argue that he wasn't even the most valuable player on his team.

[CMJ]

Here's how I'd rank the finalists....

Larry Johnson
Carson Palmer
Brad Banks
Ken Dorsey
Byron Leftwich
Willis McGahee

[Diego Van Derveld]

The reason I don't take much stock in the heisman is because in 1992, the Heisman winner was Gino Torretta, QB of the at the time, #1 Hurricanes. They lose the national championship, and he drops off the face of the earth. Last I heard, he's a radio announcer ;)

[CMJ]

Well the Heisman should not be based on how they'll turn out as pro's either. :p

The only 2 time winner of the award was not a great Pro...but it doesn't lessen that he was a HELLUVA college RB.

[Figrin D'an]

Very true, CMJ.

There are eleven Heisman Trophy winners currently active in the NFL. Of those eleven, I would say that 4 have turned out to be superstars, or are well on there way to becoming so (Tim Brown, Eddie George, Charles Woodson, Ricky Williams).

Two others, Vinny Testaverde and Doug Flutie, have had good, but not amazing careers.

The rest have been a little lack-luster, but they're still around, so that says something.

For reference, the others are: Ron Dayne, Desmond Howard, Ty Detmer, Chris Weinke, and Danny Wuerffel.

[Diego Van Derveld]

Well...its just one of those things that you'd expect to have a high statistical correlation, and it doesn't.

[CMJ]

Howard has had a good career. Hell he was the Superbowl XXXI MVP. ;)

[JonathanLB]

Howard is the frickin MAN! I love that guy.

Anyway, no offense to your analysis, but both Testaverde and Flutie are bigger names than any of the other four you mentioned above them, sorry.

Flutie has been great! Flutie is the man. Ok he is not Steve Young or Brett Favre, but the guy proved he wasn't just a college talent, but a real professional who deserved to be considered a great NFL player.

When I watched Testaverde, back when the Jets were good and made the playoffs like 4-5 years ago, he was really a strong QB.

I disagree also that the Heisman shouldn't be about how the person will do in the NFL. Of course it should! That's what's wrong with it now, awarding QBs the Heisman who aren't as good as other players and clearly show no promise in the NFL. Harrington was the best player from last year to enter the NFL and should have won the Heisman. History will prove that, if it hasn't already. I mean he is the only one who is immediately active and he's a starting QB with the Lions, a bad football team, but one that has managed to improve notably and play some close games anyway. Also, you have to consider what Harrington has to work with there in Detroit, which is not a whole lot. He's going to be a great QB, that kid is a winner and you can tell it by his smile, his attitude, and his comments. I've seen a lot of these guys enter the NFL and had my hopes up for them succeeding but deep down I really didn't think they had what it takes. Akili Smith, now with the Bungles I think (?), was another great Oregon QB but he didn't have what it takes to win in the NFL so far. I mean, maybe he'll show more promise later, but Harrington has been lucky as well as good (how many times can you remember where a rookie gets the starting job on an NFL team? That's really cool!). Also Ryan Leaf, I watched him a lot, and I just didn't know. I thought he had a good chance in the NFL, but I didn't really "feel it" -- I wasn't sure of his prospects, just thought he had a good chance. Well, he proved to be a total bomb.

Vick, now there is another guy I thought definitely could go somewhere. I wasn't sure either, but felt pretty confident he could pull it off. He's done well so far!

I really like Woodson too, btw, he's awesome. Watched him in college a bit, watched him in the pros, he's the man. Very versatile.

[Figrin D'an]

Yeah, but Howard's success has been exclusively as a return man. As a wide receiver at the pro level, he's been a huge disappointment. He got a second chance to play WR when the Raiders signed him after the Packers won Super Bowl XXXI and he won the game's MVP award, but he was quickly demoted back to return man because he couldn't catch the ball with any consistency. As a return man, he's very good, but as a receiver with a lot of potential coming out of college, he's a flop.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Jon what are you talking about I don't see Flutie or Testaverdie going in the hall, while Brown is guarenteed. George and Williams could if they keep playing for another 6-7 years and have good years. Woodson is still amazing CB. I admit the others are nobodies, Wienkie and Wueffle, I bet will be out the league in two years, both are awful QB's (its hard to believe either won the award) Dayne has had a bad break he happened to get picked by a team that had a great Running back, hard to do anything if you don't play. Howard well he had a couple good years, but he is a not a good reciever, was a great PR/KR for a few years there.
As far as this year it should be Johnson he was amazing this year. Still, I have a funny feeling it will be Dorsey another QB who will fail as a pro.

[Figrin D'an]

How can you equate giving a major college award to how a person will do in the NFL? You can't predict the future. Even a seemingly great pro talent can end up as a flop. How about guys like Dan McGuire, Brian Bosworth, Tony Mandrich and Rashan Salaam? All of them were listed at the top of many teams draft boards in their respective years, and everyone thought that they would have great careers in the NFL. All of them flopped within 4 years. Or take players like Bruce Matthews, Dwight Clarke and John Stallworth. All three of them were low-round draft picks, pretty much afterthoughts in the draft, good but not great players in college, but all of went on to have Hall of Fame calibur careers.

The Heisman is a collegiate award, that goes to the best college player in a given season. The NFL has nothing to do with it, and it never should.

[JonathanLB]

I don't think you see what I mean.

Obviously a 5'10" QB has a LOT less NFL potential than a 6'4" QB who has fairly similar stats, so I don't care how well the two did in college, it's pretty obvious which ones has the better chance to succeed.

Carr versus Harrington? Jesus, GET REAL. Everyone saw that Harrington was a better QB and had more potential except a few Heisman voters. I don't see Carr doing that wonderful, but I do see Harrington making a lot of great passes and learning a lot this year. He's on his way to greatness in the NFL. Carr will be lucky to be a good second string QB, sorry.

I'm just saying a lot of the time it doesn't take you being able to predict the future, it just takes some common sense. A guy like Favre has an incredible throwing arm and unrivaled power, now if you see a guy in college football who has great stats but not a very powerful arm compared to another guy who obviously does have a powerful arm, it's obvious who has the better chance to succeed in the big leagues, at least. Doesn't mean 100% of the time that'll happen, but it does mean odds are for it.

Flutie is a very good QB. Testaverde is off and on, he's nothing special, but the year I really followed him he was a good one.

The other guys, they'll probably have better overall careers, but right now Flutie is the most notable on that list. Everyone has heard of Flutie, if not just because of his Autism organization or whatever.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I was really saying that I didn't think Weikne and Weuffle were great players in college and I didn't think they deserved the award in the first place that is why they have flopped as pros, maybe I mistated my point there. About Flutie, well he is a great guy but just hasn't been brilliant in the pros, unless you count the CFL. Personally, as much as I hate to say it (being a Chiefs fan) I think Brown is the best player on that list, they guy is one of the 10 best WR of all time and he is probably the heisman winner who has done the best in the pros.

[Diego Van Derveld]

How can you equate giving a major college award to how a person will do in the NFL?

A major premise of human resource management is that the best indicator of future performance is past performance. Even still, the correlation between heisman winners and successful NFL players is abysmally low.

[Figrin D'an]

That's all well and good, Jon, but what does that have to do with the Heisman Trophy? Are you trying to say that the award should be given to the best college player that has the most predicted potential at the pro level? What if there is a player that, in a given year in college, was better and meant more to his team than a player with more pro potential? Take Danny Wuerffel for instance. There were plenty of players that had more pro potential than him, including a few quarterbacks. But, Wuerffel had a great season, and lead the Florida Gators to the national title. He was a very clear favorite for the Heisman because he had great numbers, he was a leader on the field, and his team won. So what if he didn't have the pro potential as some others? The Heisman goes to the "most outstanding collegiate player" in a given season. It's based on their proven merits on the field, not on what they might do in the future.

[Figrin D'an]

Originally posted by Diego Van Derveld
A major premise of human resource management is that the best indicator of future performance is past performance. Even still, the correlation between heisman winners and successful NFL players is abysmally low.

That's true, but that is for the draft gurus and teams to decide. The DAC isn't concerned with pro potential. It gives out the award based upon what the player has already accomplished. It's the same with the other major college awards. What the human resources management of the NFL's franchises do based upon the results of those awards is of their own accord.

[Diego Van Derveld]

What I am saying is that while the correlation between Heisman and NFL talent is low, its probably the best indicator you can use to predict.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Still some of these guys weren't that good, some had great season and were probably the only good seasons they ever had (see Andre Ware) Others played in a great system that was perfect and wasnt' a great player just in a perfect situation (Weuffle and Wiekne) Others are vicims of circumstance either injury or behind a don't get to play (Salaame(sp) and Dayne). Still others call the thing the Heisman curse, not really believe in that because most of the RB's who won it have been great in the pro's its weird that most QBs that win it don't. Makes you wonder if being a great QB in college means anything. Farve and Montana weren't huge players in college neither really had oppurtunites Montana played in a running system and Farve a small school. I do find it intersting looking and debating this issue, even though it is just an award.

[Figrin D'an]

Originally posted by Diego Van Derveld
What I am saying is that while the correlation between Heisman and NFL talent is low, its probably the best indicator you can use to predict.


I don't know if I would agree with that. Extrapolating pro potential and draft status is what tape study and the NFL Combine are for.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree I don't think the League even cares who wins, they look at talent not awards.

[Diego Van Derveld]

There have been enough correlating data studies to validate the past performance query as the best technique...at least in a general sense. Data put on regression analysis to that extent is pretty accurate on showing the trends. You could possibly do data transformations to show a better correlation that isn't immediately apparent, but its hard to trick regression analysis. The only pitfall is the number of heisman winners that have been historically inducted into the NFL. (When was the NFL founded anyways?) The numbers are a bit too low for airtight correlation on a 95% confidence level (which requires about 400-ish samples). I won't do the regression analysis, so I can't give numbers for a sample set that small.

[JonathanLB]

I would say that the Heisman is more of a curse than a reward, much like the Sports Illustrated cover for #1 college team in the pre-season rankings (*cough* Oregon State University *cough*).

Whenever someone does NOT win the Heisman and they were among the candidates, I consider them more likely to succeed than if they had won it, LOL. I mean seriously, it's almost INVERSELY correlated with future success. ;)

[Figrin D'an]

Stewart Mandel wrote a very good column on the Heisman Trophy earlier today. Although I don't always agree with his opinions, the article is an interesting read.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/stewart_mandel/news/2002/12/09/heisman_shark/

[JMK]

The finalists have been released. Probably no surprises here:

Ken Dorsey
Willis McGahee
Brad Banks
Larry Johnson
Carson Palmer

[jjwr]

That CNNSI article on the Heisman jumping the shark is great, he makes some great points and as a casual observer of the award its easy to tell that its got its problems and it favors certain positions/accomplishments more than others.

Like most things in college football its turned into a bit of a joke, the whole Bowl thing is better than in years past as the two best teams are on top this year(unlike last year with Nebraska in the championship).

I'd like to see Larry Johnson win it, his numbers are flat out incredible though they'll probably give it to Dorsey for his career achievement.

That and if he wins it maybe people will shy away from him in the draft and the Patriots can get him with that Buffalo #1 pick they're holding onto :)

[CMJ]

Carson Palmer won in a reasonably close race. I can't really complain, he had an excellent season.

Though I still think Larry Johnson should have won. :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

Johnson was the best player still Palmer is a better choice than Dorsey who isn't really that good.

[JonathanLB]

Heck yeah, Palmer all the way.

Eat that East Coast bias! PAC-10 all the way, this is where it's at, always has been, regardless of what the fools in New York see. They only watch games on their own coast, so this is a real surprise, but a deserved one. Finally they recognize a great player on our coast.

Argue as you wish, but I don't see any way you can say that anyone but Palmer deserved the Heisman. To that I say... whatever.

[Figrin D'an]

The thing that surprised me was the final voting results. I expected it to be a lot closer than it actually was. And, that Palmer won all but two regions. That really shocked me. I felt that he would win because of other players splitting regions, but Palmer actually beat out Larry Johnson in the NorthEast region and both Dorsey and McGahee in the SouthEast. That's pretty amazing. His performance against Notre Dame must have really resonated with a lot of people.

Banks finished second, Johnson third, McGahee fourth and Dorsey fifth. The three most deserving candidates finished as the top three, so I'm pleased with that. I'm glad that the voters didn't cave to the whims of the media and give to Dorsey as a career award.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know that made me glad too, how do you think Palmer will do in the Pros's? I am not sure if he will go first or not (The Bengals need so many different parts I am not sure where they would start) but he could go in the top 10. I have a feeling Johnson is going to be awesome in the pros. Not sure about Banks he could be good too.

[CMJ]

Geez Jonathan...now I live on the west coast too. :p Palmer was my second choice though(I saw him play more than the other guys). I saw LJ play 4 games and he was flat out amazing.

I was in shock that he didn't win the North East region.