Holiday Box Office Contest Weekend 6 [Archive]

sirdizzy

Dec 6th, 2002, 09:06:53 AM

i found out it was a sneak preview i was just shocked my town is starting to get sneak previews (the first one i ever heard of was the rookie) so i thought it was actually coming out

also they are doing a sneak preview of maid in manhattan a horrible looking movie

sirdizzy

Dec 6th, 2002, 09:07:48 AM

and it may be awya for the local theatres to make more money since i always go to matinees and this way there are no matinee if ya want to see it early

and yes i am going to go see it today

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 6th, 2002, 04:23:16 PM

1 Analyze That 32.34
2 Harry Potter 2 21.99
3 Die Another Day 19.43
4 The Santa Clause 2 10.11
5 Treasure Planet 8.44

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 6th, 2002, 05:38:50 PM

1 Analyze That $22.96
2 Die Another Day $21.90
3 Chamber of Secrets $20.000000
4 The Santa Clause 2 $10.62
5 Treasure Planet $8.000000

ReaperFett

Dec 6th, 2002, 05:39:20 PM

1 Analyze That 29.99
2 Harry Potter 2 23.99
3 Die Another Day 20.99
4 The Santa Clause 2 11.11
5 Treasure Planet 9.99

Admiral Lebron

Dec 6th, 2002, 11:55:50 PM

1. Analyze That - 30.45
2. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - 20.21
3. Die Another Day - 18.42
4. Santa Clause Two - 13.98
5. Treasure Planet - 10.00

Quadinaros

Dec 7th, 2002, 01:59:52 AM

1. Analyze That $18.62
2. Die Another Day $15.62
3. Harry Potter $14.62
4. Santa Clause $5.63
5. Treasure Planet $5.62

You guys are all overestimating everything. But I'm sure Yogs will be in here at 9AM to cap all my numbers. >_<

Master Yoghurt

Dec 7th, 2002, 07:59:22 AM

Quads: You and me agree about one thing; everyone is overpredicting. I believe this will be a slow weekend for box office. Your prediction is pretty much how I expect the final numbers to be. Except, I suspect 'Analyze That' may flop even harder than what you think. It is a bit of a gamble, but we will see what happens. Good luck to all the players! :)

Here are my predictions:

1. Die Another Day 15.55
2. Chamber of Secrets 14.55
3. Analyze That 12.55
4. Santa Clause 2 6.55
5. Treasure Planet 5.55

Master Yoghurt

Dec 7th, 2002, 12:53:15 PM

1 DIE ANOTHER DAY MGM/UA 3,347 4,081,500 1,219 111,465,500
2 ANALYZE THAT WARNER BROS. 2,635 3,765,000 1,429 3,765,000
3 HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS WARNER BROS. 3,387 2,714,500 801 206,598,500
4 EMPIRE UNIVERSAL 864 2,177,000 2,520 2,177,000
5 8 CRAZY NIGHTS SONY 2,503 1,472,500 588 16,662,500
6 SANTA CLAUSE 2: THE MRS. CLAUSE BUENA VISTA 2,356 1,310,000 556 116,124,000
7 TREASURE PLANET BUENA VISTA 3,227 1,302,500 404 19,402,500
8 RING, THE DREAMWORKS 1,642 838,500 511 121,631,500
9 WES CRAVEN PRESENTS: THEY DIMENSION 1,623 818,000 504 9,103,000
10 FRIDAY AFTER NEXT NEW LINE 1,450 803,500 554 27,204,500

Master Yoghurt

Dec 7th, 2002, 02:49:03 PM

Man, that 'Empire' went under the radar for me. One would think with only 800 screens and zero publicity, it would do less. It looks like it will take the #4 spot unless Santa Claus' raindeer are fed with steroids during the weekend. James Bond targets the #1 spot with laser guided missiles, and seems to hit the mark with great precision. Will Harry Potter have the magic tricks to beat 'Analyze That' on Saturday and Sunday, and take #2? I doubt it

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 7th, 2002, 08:58:33 PM

Well Harry Potter does its best on Saturday's I think it could easily fall at the #2, I bet Santa Clause wins #4 just because it does great on Saturday and Sunday. I am surprised about Analyse that there hasn't been a comedy in a month and I figured that people would want a laugh right now, I guess I was wrong.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 7th, 2002, 09:16:42 PM

We will see. Right now Harry Potter is about a million behind, so it needs a heavy multiplier, perhaps 4-5. Analyze This had a good multiplier too in 99:

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/1999/ANLYZ.html

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 7th, 2002, 09:51:58 PM

Of course if nobody wants to see Anaylse That it could fall off. Maybe this is a movie that shouldn't have been made, some of the critics questioned the point of it. I liked the first one but I am not sure if a second movie was necessary. Also I am curious what do you think Harry Potter will now finish with? I think it will be between 270-280, I think it won't drop that bad from here on out and it has no competion (family movies) except the Wild Thornberries (which I don't think will do well) from here on out.

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 8th, 2002, 12:27:15 AM

I'd say lower for Potter2 - maybe as low as 260 million. It's getting to 30 million behind the pace of HP1, it's only going to fall further and further behind. It will also lose a lot of theatres next week and the week after.

Darth23

Dec 8th, 2002, 01:33:15 AM

Don't be so sure. I expected Harry to lose theaters before Christmas last year, but it was still playing at 3100 locations on Christmas.

I think there might be less families taking the kids to Lord of the Rings this year, now that a lot more people realize that they're not 'kids movies.

With Treasure Planet btiting the big one and Santa Clause 2 already losing theaters, Harry Potter will be the only real kid/family choice for the rest of the year.

sirdizzy

Dec 8th, 2002, 01:47:11 AM

there is a crappy <smallfont color={hovercolor}>-Censored-</smallfont> live action pinnocio that comes out on christmas day that will fail miserably though

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 8th, 2002, 06:57:26 AM

Well, Potter lost 297 (down to 3387) theatres this week and is projected to be at least 25 million short of Potter1 at the same period. Potter 1 at this time, as you state, was not losing theatres. It was at week 4 at 3672. At Dec 31 2001, it was 3186. Also, it was still playing strongly at No. 5. I just do not see that happening this time around. The market is stronger coming up it seems, it is also dropping away faster this time around, I just dont see Potter being on that number of screens by Christmas.

True TTT is no kids movie... but then, to be honest, either was COS.

Also, COS has been much, much weaker mid week. Yes, kids moive... but 838K on Wednesday? 2.7K on Friday? No way is it going to keep theatres. I'll bet that it will take until at least Christmas for COS to even get beyond 260 million.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 8th, 2002, 10:01:25 AM

I agree with Darth, I see Treasure Planet in less Theather than Hp2 COS by the end of the year mostly because TP is doing horrible. And with HP 2 the only family movie out there it should make it to 275, IMO and probably around 800 WW, which is very good for a sequel.

Quadinaros

Dec 8th, 2002, 11:55:27 AM

Regarding Analyze That, I rushed out to see it on Friday 'cause I liked the first one so much. It was terrible. It's a stereotype of everything that sucks about sequels. Nothing more to say on that...

Ahh. And Empire. I had a feeling this movie would hit the top 5, but I couldn't figure if it would end up in 5th or 4th. So I figured the percentage play was to bet against it altogether. Like all my decisions so far in this contest, it was the wrong one...

Master Yoghurt

Dec 8th, 2002, 03:45:37 PM

1. Die Another Day - $13,000,000 -58% $120,364,000
2. Analyze That - $11,300,000 NEW $11,300,000
3. Harry Potter - $10,020,000 -68% $213,904,000
4. Empire - $6,273,000 NEW $6,723,000
5. Treasure Planet - $5,660,000 -53% $23,800,000
6. The Santa Clause 2 - $5,410,000 -55% $120,200,000
7. Eight Crazy Nights - $5,200,000 -45% $20,400,000
8. Friday After Next - $2,800,000 -62% $29,100,000
9. 8 Mile - $2,609,000 -54% $111,240,000
10. The Ring - $2,520,000 -52% $123,300,000
11. They - $2,500,000 -51% $11,000,000
12. Solaris - $2,325,000 -65% $13,192,000
13. My Big Fat Greek Wedding - $2,000,000 -49% $213,300,000

Equilibrium - $528,000 NEW $528,000
Adaptation - $400,000 NEW $400,000

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 8th, 2002, 04:25:07 PM

Okay, Potter made even less than any of us dared guess and a drop of 68%, worse than solaris. It made a total of 15 million this week.

It looks to me like even with no competition, this is a movie with not a lot left. I'm standing by what I said and I believe the numbers are pretty clear - right now, HP1 was at 239 million at this point last year, with a drop of 37% I believe. It is projected to be 26 million behind. IF COS follows HP1 exactly from here on in, it finishes on 291. Clearly, that will not be the case.

No, COS will have less theatres and be doing far less business up to Christmas, which will be the last point it will have to have a chance of going above 270 million. No doubt it will get good business in that holiday, that will be the oly thing that bumps Potter that high.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 8th, 2002, 05:05:06 PM

About Harry Potter, I tend to agree with Marcus. I believe COS is going to continue losing momentum through december, and eventually make around 265 million.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 8th, 2002, 07:01:47 PM

I think it will do 275, its just a hunch, hey I said AOTC would make 300 when people here started doubting it, and it was a hunch then so I think I could be right be again. Also I personally think this means that TTT will not make 300. I say that because I don't see it getting oscar nods which will cost it 20-30 million probably, it will probably do similar to Potter open huge have 3 good weekends and drop off in January. I am guessing it makes between 280-290. I think Spiderman and AOTC will be the only two films to make 300.

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 8th, 2002, 07:08:37 PM

I'm betting TTT makes 300 million in four weeks. I have no doubts the amount of business it will do will be astounding - why is becuaase the level of anticipation is huge, the whole world wants to see TTT, it has picked up more and more fans since the DVD's,

I dont think there will be sequelitis here. The reviews out already are ranging from estatic to very good. I believe that we are going to be shocked just how fast and how high TTT goes in three weeks.

FOTR played very low in USA compared to most other countries. I do not think that will be quite the case this time around. It will come out of the blocks at high pace and maintain that for at last three weeks. I dont think Spidermans 100 million record is in doubt, but 200 million, that could well be.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 8th, 2002, 07:12:01 PM

I personally doubt it because really nobody who didn't see this movie in theaters will go to see it now. I do think it will be front loaded more. Also don't get too over optmistic I remember thinking AOTC could make 400 well I was insane. I say it makes 80-100 in the first five days, and makes about 200 by the end of the year. It will drop off quick after New Years though because everybody goes back to school and the poor month of January and Feburary will hurt it and it will end up making less than 300, the only way it makes more is if it gets Oscar nods (major ones) and right now I don't see it happening unless the academy surprises me.

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 8th, 2002, 07:20:57 PM

Oh, I agree that TTT will be front loaded - but I suggest the reply value will also be high. Very high. That is why I think 300 million will be a cert

Admiral Lebron

Dec 8th, 2002, 09:13:44 PM

I am planning on seeing TTT at least twice in theaters. 100% more times than FOTR.

Darth23

Dec 8th, 2002, 09:58:47 PM

I think TTT will make it past 300 million (though I'm starting to doubt my 314 prediction.

But I think it will take more than 4 weeks to do it.

It only has 2 weeks of holiday time until the slow part of the season kicks in. While it probably won't have much competition, it also won't have nearly as many people going to the movies.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 9th, 2002, 01:29:46 PM

Early projection for TTT:

3-day: 67M
5-day: 109M
Total Gross: 327M

Wednesday 24M
Thursday 18M
Friday 21M
Saturday 24M
Sunday 22M

Concidering the massive buildup of anticipation, the publicity and excellent word of mouth from the previous chapter, there will be a big boost to the initial part of the box office run, and a final result slighly better than FOTR.

Master Yoghurt

Dec 9th, 2002, 03:06:59 PM

1 DIE ANOTHER DAY $12,843,007
2 ANALYZE THAT $11,034,422
3 HARRY POTTER CHAMBER SECRETS $10,086,264
4 EMPIRE $6,281,415
5 TREASURE PLANET $5,547,431
6 THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 $5,327,205
7 ADAM SANDLER'S 8 CRAZY NIGHTS $4,854,255
8 FRIDAY AFTER NEXT $2,800,165
9 8 MILE $2,548,975
10 THE RING $2,519,379

Master Yoghurt

Dec 9th, 2002, 03:09:45 PM

I cant believe it.. my Treasure Planet pic.. I did it again! :eek

Master Yoghurt

Dec 9th, 2002, 05:05:48 PM

This weekend, 'Analyze That' bombed, much to everyone's surprise, except me (I read the crowd reports). Analyze that would not drop as much as I hope it would, so my #1-3 streak got foiled, I did get Die Another Day right though. Quadinaros foresaw the slow weekend, and got Harry Potter right, and allmost #5. Empire was the wild card this weekend, as it took the 4th spot playing in only 800 theaters. Everyone got points because of Treasure Planet which took #5 position. Since I got the number for Treasure Planet correct to the nearest ten thousand, there will be a 10 points bonus.

Winner of #1: Master Yoghurt
Winner of #3: Quadinaros
Winner of #5: Master Yoghurt

The Price is Right bonus #5: 5.55M - Master Yoghurt (10 points)

Master Yoghurt: 50
Quadinaros: 25
Marcus Q'Dunn: 10
Sir Dizzy: 5
Sene Unty: 5
Jedi Master Carr: 5
ReaperFett: 5
Admiral Lebron: 5

Which extends my lead even further..

Master Yoghurt 300
ReaperFett 180
Marcus Q'Dunn 130
Admiral Lebron 105
Sene Unty 100
Sir Dizzy 100
Jedi Master Carr 95
Quadinaros 85
JMK 45
Jedieb 20

Is it over yet? Not really. Next weekend, I will be away, so I will have to post my predictions for the next two rounds real early (excellent opportunity to sabotage or cap my predictions ;)). Furthermore, TTT weekend will be double points, so there is a good chance to climb the score table in a huge leap :)

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 9th, 2002, 05:14:38 PM

RIGGED! RIGGED!

:p

BoxOffice Mojo...

1 Analyze That (2,635 theaters)
16.4

2 Die Another Day
14.9

3 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
13.5

4 The Santa Clause 2
5.4

5 Treasure Planet
5.1

First week I would have done better I think using Mojo

Master Yoghurt

Dec 9th, 2002, 05:24:36 PM

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2002&wknd=49&p=.htm

:p

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 9th, 2002, 05:26:57 PM

Those are actuals. I posted rpedictions :p

Master Yoghurt

Dec 9th, 2002, 05:33:39 PM

I know, just wanted to show the numbers aint rigged :p

But hey, if you posted the actuals instead of BOM predictions, you would do much better ;)

Marcus Telcontar

Dec 9th, 2002, 05:37:52 PM

LOL.

I wish :D

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 9th, 2002, 07:58:55 PM

Is there anything else besides Star Trek that comes out next week? I do think it will be easier to predict next week. Star Trek will be #1 , If it can't make more than 10 million something is really wrong. After that probably James Bond and Harry Potter 2 and 3 respectively, I wouldn't be shocked to see Anaylse That fall hard, maybe not even be in the top 5.

Quadinaros

Dec 10th, 2002, 01:02:10 AM

So Yogs, what 'crowd reports' do you read? Or is that classified information?

Master Yoghurt

Dec 10th, 2002, 01:15:25 AM

Well, the movies coming out are:

Star Trek: Nemesis 2,600+
Maid in Manhattan 2,500+
The Hot Chick 2,200+
Drumline 1,900

I agree Star Trek will beat DAD and COS. It got some great reviews and it got a loyal fanbase which pretty much ensures some big bucks. I also agree DAD will beat COS. But those other movies, I have not decided yet how they will perform. Maid in Manhattan could do well. Hot chick is more doubtful, but could threaten DAD and COS. Drumline wont make top 5 I think. But I will have to think on this. As I said earlier, I will be away the next weekend, so I will post my predictions for the next two rounds real early, probably thursday :)

Quads: They are usually posted at box office mojo forums. Checking online sales for sellouts also helps

Quadinaros

Dec 10th, 2002, 01:22:08 AM

Aha. I just might check out those forums. I occassionally check my local theater's webpage for sellouts, but on a slow weekend like this one, there were no sellouts, so that wasn't very helpful.

Jedi Master Carr

Dec 10th, 2002, 11:38:17 AM

I forgot about Maid in Manahttaan, could make #2 though J-Lo's record hasn't been great lately. both new films will make the top 5, also I am wondering if Star Trek and maybe the Hot Chick will take away from DAD's audience? Harry Potter could pass it maybe since it is the only family film besides TP, which is falling hard and Santa Clause 2 which I am sure is starting to lose theaters, it will be intersting to see have to say that.