Holiday Box Office Contest Weekend 5 Thanksgiving (Starts Thursday Morning)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay this is early for the Thanksgiving rush you have until Thursday morning around the time the Macy Day Parade begins in New York. All points are doubled so for those who forgot here is your chance to catch up.

[Master Yoghurt]

Wide releases wednesday 27 of november

Treasure Planet - Disney
Animated
Budget: $100M (USA)
3,227 theaters
- <a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/treasure_planet-tlr2.html>Trailer 2 (http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/treasure_planet.html>Trailer)
HSX.com Stock Ticker: H$79.45 2.50
Rotten Tomatoes: 8/10 - 80%
Internet Movie Database: 7.3/10 (43 votes)

Solaris - Fox
George Clooney, Dir. Steven Soderbergh
Budget: $47M
2,406 theaters
Film Clips (http://www.apple.com/trailers/fox/solaris/>Trailer</a>)
HSX.com Stock Ticker: H$47.42 -5.50
Rotten Tomatoes: 11/16 - 69%

Eight Crazy Nights - Sony
Adam Sandler, Animated
2,503 theaters
Trailer (http://www.apple.com/trailers/columbia/eight_crazy_nights/>Trailer</a>
HSX.com)
HSX.com Stock Ticker: H$17.06 4.75

They - Dimension
Budget: $17M
1,615 theaters
<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/miramax/they.html>Trailer</a>
HSX.com Stock Ticker: H$33.25 0.75
Internet Movie Database: 5.8/10 (46 votes)


(more details to be added)

[Jedi Master Carr]

This is going to be a toughy. Not sure what to expect from Solaris, it might bomb, especially the way George Clooney is bashing it in the press, that is never a good sign. And Sodenberg's last film didn't really score at the box office. That Sandler movie I am curious about it could make the top 5 or miss it, I am not sure what the audience is for it, I think it is PG 13 and usually cartoons towards adolescents and adults don't do very well. Treasure Planet, to me looks bad, I saw previews for it and none of the kids in the audience seem to care about it, it was like yawn. Right now I think Hp 2 might reclaim #1 but I will wait with that call.

[Master Yoghurt]

You are right this weekend is a toughie, I have NO idea what will happen this weekend. There is plenty of opportunity for me to mess up this time around, and with the double points, tables might be turned..

[Master Yoghurt]

Lee's Release Schedule Estimated Debut (3 day?):
Treasure Planet 24.0M
Solaris 14.7M
Eight Crazy Nights 14.0M
Extreme Ops 4.8M


HSJ.org Weekend Warrior (5 day)
TREASURE PLANET $ 40.0
HARRY POTTER $ 39.5
DIE ANOTHER DAY $ 39.5
SOLARIS $ 25.5
8 CRAZY NIGHTS $ 17.5
FRIDAY AFTER NEXT $ 11.0
THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 $ 9.5
8 MILE $ 7.0
THE RING $ 6.2
THEY $ 5.4
EMPEROR'S CLUB $ 4.4
EXTREME OPS $ 4.3
<a href=http://www.hsj.org/cl/shades033/>LINK</a>


Box Office Guru (3 day)
Die Another Day $31M
Treasure Planet $28M
Chamber of Secrets $25M
Eight Crazy Nights $14M
Solaris $10M
They $6M
Extreme Ops $5M


Box Office Prophets (5 day)
Chamber of Secrets 44.6
Die Another Day 40.0
Solaris 31.3
Treasure Planet 30.9
8 Crazy Nights 17.7
The Santa Clause 2 11.2
Friday After Next 10.6
The Ring 8.8
8 Mile 8.2
Extreme Ops 6.6
They 5.0
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 4.8


Box Office Report (3 day)
Chamber of Secrets 32.0
Die Another Day 29.0
Treasure Planet 26.0 (36.0)
Solaris 19.0 (28.0)
8 Crazy Nights 15.0 (22.0)
The Santa Clause 2 9.5
Friday After Next 7.5
They 6.0
The Ring 5.5
8 Mile 4.5
Extreme Ops 4.0

[Jedi Master Carr]

Those are 5 days numbers right?

[Master Yoghurt]

Hmm.. not sure. They seem a little low, so I think they are 3 day

Perhaps they are not so low after all, LOL. Dont know, I am still very undecided what to think of these new releases

[Jedi Master Carr]

Now this is a big time for people to get back in it. So I would recommend post your picks either tonight or by tomorrow night just in case you forget, I figure for some of us we won't want to be coming on here Thanksgiving morning.

[ReaperFett]

Im editing the title, as not everyone will know this starts THursday. Bit unfair :)

[Master Yoghurt]

For those wondering how HP vs DAD is doing, here are mondays results:

1. Die Another Day - $3,637,421 -68% $50,709,461
2. Harry Potter & the Chamber of Secrets - $2,561,271 -79% $150,920,102
3. Friday After Next - $800,000 -76% $13,811,000
4. The Santa Clause 2 - $702,167 -76% $95,646,266
5. 8 Mile - $634,000 -69% $98,214,000
6. The Ring - $537,126 -68% $111,375,001
7. The Emperor's Club - $295,000 -67% $4,142,000
8. My Big Fat Greek Wedding - $270,000 -71% $204,790,000
9. Half Past Dead - $205,228 -71% $12,706,770
10. Frida - $200,000 -73% $12,256,000

[Jedi Master Carr]

Thanks Reaper, I think its fair because the points are doubled this weekend.

[Quadinaros]

I will not forget. I will not forget. I will not forget. Here goes....

1. Harry Potter $45.62
2. Die Another Day $37.62
3. Treasure Planet $29.62
4. Solaris $25.62
5. Eight Crazy Nights $14.62

[Jedi Master Carr]

Hey Dizzy didn't go first, I am shocked.
Well I am going to go ahead, I might change mine later, I have no clue what Treasure Planet is going to do, I have a feeling Solaris is going to tank. Clooney is bashing the film and I think audience won't go to a movie they can't understand. Also I am curious how the SC 2 is going to do, it is a holiday weekend and Christmas feels upon us. I think it could do 12-15 for the five days but Solaris would have to really tank for it to make the top 5.

1 Harry Potter 2 50.25
2 Die Another Day 40.23
3 Treasure Planet 32.44
4 Eight Crazy Nights 24.66
5 The Santa Clause 2 17.33

[sirdizzy]

it was that darn early week that got me guess i will go 3rd

[sirdizzy]

1 Harry Potter - $40.21 million
2 Treasure Planet $37.44 million
3 Die Another Day - $35.11 million
4 8 Crazy Nights - $19.01 million
5 Solaris - $15.44 million [

[Marcus Telcontar]

Okaym, here I go.... 5 day, right?

1 Die Another Day- $39.934
2 Harry Potter - $39.4444
3 Treasure Island- $36.00
4 Solaris- $22.9 million
5 8 Crazy NightsSolaris - $14.98 million

[ReaperFett]

DIE ANOTHER DAY 39.9
TREASURE PLANET 39.9
HARRY POTTER 38.9
SOLARIS 26.5
8 CRAZY NIGHTS 16.5


This is the week I bomb :)

[JMK]

1 Harry Potter 2 53.85
2 Die Another Day 39.10
3 Treasure Planet 30.24
4 Eight Crazy Nights 25.78
5 Solaris 16.05

[Admiral Lebron]

1. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: 47.43
2. Die Another Day: 45.90
3. Eight Crazy Nights: 29.42
4. Treasure Planet: 25.66
5: Friday After Next: 20.00

[Sene Unty]

1. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: 42.12
2. Die Another Day: 38.80
3. Treasure Planet: 28.78
4. Eight Crazy Nights: 23.42
5: Friday After Next: 19.55

[Master Yoghurt]

1. Die Another Day $42.77M
2. Harry Potter $38.77M
3. Treasure Planet $18.77M
4. Santa Claus 2 $11.77M
5. Solaris $10.77M

[Master Yoghurt]

DIE ANOTHER DAY 6.666
HARRY POTTER 6.568
ADAM SANDLER'S... 2.732
TREASURE PLANET 2.322
SANTA CLAUSE 1.948
SOLARIS 1.233
8MILE 1.193
FRIDAY AFTER 1.173
THEY 1.121
THE RING 1.063

(Not sure if these are accurate at time of writing)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I went to Mojo's board and they seem right. TP really did poorly I think it will edge 8 Crazy Nights because Family films do better on Friday and Saturday. In that regard HP 2 should edge out DAD probably 46-44 or something like that. Wow about SC 2 I am glad I changed it, I knew it would do better because of the holiday, I bet it makes about 15 million, this is defintely the sleeper hit of the holiday season and is performing similar to the first Santa Clause movie. Will have to wait till Friday to see how they perform today, still we won't know until Saturday because Friday's numbers will be most important, usually Friday and Saturday are huge Thanksgiving weekend.

[Master Yoghurt]

I am not really surprised by any of these numbers, except 8 crazy nights. I am trying to figure out what core audience it is aimed at, or more to the point, who is seeing it? Adam Sandler fans?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think the die hards went out to see first night , I be shocked if it finished 3rd. I forgot to mention Solaris I knew the film would bomb I bet it won't make 10 million, especially once everybody hears how bad it is.

[Quadinaros]

I'm guessing the top 5 for the weekend will be
1. Harry Potter
2. Die Another Day
3. Treasure Planet
4. 8 Crazy Nights
5. Santa Clause

But... The way Santa Clause is doing, I could actually see it finishing as high as 3rd, especially if TP doesn't hold up well.

[Master Yoghurt]

DIE ANOTHER DAY 8.409
HARRY POTTER 7.385
SANTA CLAUSE 2.796
TREASURE PLANET 2.148
8 CRAZY NIGHTS 2.135
FRIDAY AFTER NEXT 2.016
SOLARIS 1.593
THE RING 1.276
THEY 1.242

[Master Yoghurt]

It looks like Santa Clause will take the third spot. I am guessing Treasure Planets takes the 4th and Eight Crazy Nights 5th position. It also seems James Bond got better legs than the wizard boy, so it should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Could be a close race.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Hp 2 will win Friday and Saturday, and should beat it out on Sunday, I think both films will make over 40 for the 5 days, its very possible both will make more than 45 for the. SC 2 is a surprise it might make over 20 million for the 5 days, I guess the holidays have gotten families out to see it. Who would have thought that a 3 week old Disney film would beat out a new animated Disney Movie.

[Sene Unty]

I saw 8 crazy nights. What a load of junk that movie was. God it was horrendous. Avoid at all cost!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Quadinaros]

I saw Solaris yesterday, and I can see why it isn't doing better. I didn't know anything about it before going except for the cameo by Clooney's butt. :x While I liked many things about the movie, it had a very slow deliberate pace, and when it was over, the audience was like... "Huh?" Definately not a mainstream movie.

[Master Yoghurt]

Quad: Hehe, I think you are right about Solaris not being a 'mainstream movie'. Just take a look at the cinemascores. I have never seen it that low O_o

Solaris
(PG-13) Male Female

Under 21 F F
21 to 34 F F
35 and Up F F

Overall Grade F

[sirdizzy]

thats because the movie is aweful

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow that is awful, it must really be bad, I think the movie will tank badly after this weekend, it will do a pluto nash, could be the second biggest flop of the year. Heck this could be Clooney's worst film, know wonder he is bad mouthing the thing.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are the estamites
1 HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS WARNER BROS. 3,682 13,224,000 3,592 181,558,500
2 DIE ANOTHER DAY MGM/UA 3,314 12,710,500 3,835 82,775,500
3 TREASURE PLANET BUENA VISTA 3,227 4,994,500 1,548 9,479,500
4 SANTA CLAUSE 2: THE MRS. CLAUSE BUENA VISTA 2,526 4,819,500 1,908 108,303,500
5 8 CRAZY NIGHTS SONY 2,503 4,018,500 1,605 8,902,000
6 FRIDAY AFTER NEXT NEW LINE 1,621 3,007,000 1,855 20,770,500
7 SOLARIS 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,406 2,871,500 1,193 5,684,500
8 8 MILE UNIVERSAL 2,498 2,388,500 956 104,139,500
9 WES CRAVEN PRESENTS: THEY DIMENSION 1,615 2,183,500 1,352 4,515,000
10 RING, THE DREAMWORKS 1,912 2,174,500 1,137 116,681,000

Harry Potter now narrows the gap, I think there is about half a million difference between the two movies for the 5 days, if HP performs like it has on Saturday and Sunday it should top James Bond Barely, I think Treasure Planet should finish 3rd now, it still won't make the money Disney thought it would. SC2 will finish 4th probably taking in 15-18 million which is very good for a film that has been out about a month.

[ReaperFett]

I think it's a film where the normal public wont like, but those who like that sort of film will love. Like The English Patient

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know but it got F across the Board I think The English Patient was more liked. Also critics are only giving it 65% or so according to RT which is good but not up to English Patient numbers. From what I heard the movie is very slow and I think that got on people's nerves. There were a lot of walkouts so far, so that concludes that WOM will be very bad. I doubt it will make 25 million domestically.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are the estimates and boy are they close

1 Die Another Day 46,285,000
2 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $45,800,000
3 The Santa Clause 2 $17,200,000
4 Treasure Planet $16,500,000
5 Eight Crazy Nights $15,100,000

Only 400,000 thousand between the two films, this is as close since Lilo and Stitch and Minority Report and I wouldn't be shocked to see them flip flop come monday, the same with TP and SC 2, though SC 2 is a surprise that film has had great staying power, it should make now between 140-160. Also Hp 2 may it to 100 million making the 6th film of the year to do so, it is guarenteed to make it to 270 could even crawl pass 300 will be intresting to see how it does here out.

[Master Yoghurt]

1. Die Another Day $46,285,000
2. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $45,800,000
3. The Santa Clause 2 $17,200,000
4. Treasure Planet $16,500,000
5. Eight Crazy Nights $15,100,000
6. Friday After Next $11,000,000
7. Solaris $9,450,000
8. 8 Mile $8,513,000
9. They $8,000,000
10. The Ring $7,800,000

... 13. Extreme Ops $3,065,000

[Jedi Master Carr]

I beat you :p Still you did get the rest of the top 10 we get to see how big a disapointment Solaris is going to be.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I found it amusing you posted allmost excactly 24 hours and 1 minute after your last post, and me posting the estimates 1 minute after you without realising it :)

And yes, it certainly looks like a close race!

[sirdizzy]

wow i think i am going to get 0 point this weekend thats what i get for not going first

[Jedi Master Carr]

It was also a hard week to predict, I might not get any points either if it stays the way it is.

[JMK]

0 points for me for sure! Oh well. :\

[Marcus Telcontar]

I got some points. 3 out of 5. I now wish I kept my original numbers for Bond and Potter, they were almost smack on.

[JMK]

How did you go from taking mojo's picks every week to getting them right on? ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well most of us stunk this week nobody took advantage of the double points so luckily its not over yet.

Winner of #1 Master Yoghurt
Winner of #2 Marcus Q'Dunn
Winner of #4 Admiral Lebron
Winner of #5 Quadinaros

Master Yoghurt 70
Marcus Q'Dunn 70
Admiral Lebron 40
ReaperFett 20
Quadinaros 20
Sene Unty 0
JMK 0
Sir Dizzy 0
Jedi Master Carr 0

Master Yoghurt 250
ReaperFett 175
Marcus Q'Dunn 120
Admiral Lebron 100
Sene Unty 95
Sir Dizzy 95
Jedi Master Carr 90
Quadinaros 60
JMK 45
Jedieb 20

[JMK]

I think it's time for me to pull the ejector seat on this contest. I'm dead in the water. :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think the movies are harder to predict in the winter months especially this weekend, I never expected Treasure Planet to perform that badly sure I saw it doing less than HP2 and DAD but a 5 week old Disney movie beat it out that is pretty bad. And it looks like Solaris messed up most of us, and so didn't SC2. I knew it would preform well but was still surprised how high it went.

[Marcus Telcontar]

w00t!

Okay so I tied with Yoghurt, but first time I've ever topped out a week! Go Me!

Weird how I'm doing so much better not picking Boxofficemojo....

[Jedi Master Carr]

Shows what Mojo knows.

[JMK]

w00t!

What the HELL does that mean!!!!!??????!!!!

[Quadinaros]

I suck

[Marcus Telcontar]

w00t - expression surprised delight, comes from root being the superuser of a Unix computer

[Master Yoghurt]

I feel like analysing my predictions a bit

Title - Prediction - Actual - Difference - Accuracy

Die Another Day - $42.77M - $46,068,011 - 3.3 - 92.84%
Good prediction overall. I noticed there was way too much confidence in HP, so I decided to go against the stream. But in order to minimise the risk of losing #1, I picked a low number.

Harry Potter - $38.77M - $45,750,931 - 6.98 - 84.74%
Mostly a tactical maneuver. If HP did lower than expected, I would have a shot at #2. However, when the wednesday estimates were announced, I realised it was an unrealistic outcome. Had I done better work on the maths, I would have seen this was too low. Anyway, good call Marcus!

Treasure Planet - $18.77M - $16,599,714 - 2.17 - 86.93%
Treasure Planet did exactly how much I thought it would. How did I knew? Crowdreports. It was obvious to me it would do much less than most people thought. I would even predicted a couple of millions lower had it not been for the fact I was competing with Sene Unty for #3 spot. When posting my prediction, I was allmost sure I would win this one. Little did I know how well SC2 would do..

Santa Claus 2 - $11.77M - $16,881,868 - 5.11 - 69.73%
Wow! That one caught me off guard! Thinking about it in retrospective, it does make sense. Christmas closing in and this being a good Thanksgiving movie. Furthermore, it allready shown great legs.. so why did I pick such a low number?? By a very narrow margin, it ruined my #3 and #4 prediction which I otherwise would have won (perhaps a good thing for the contest I didn't).

Solaris $10.77M - $9,418,664 - 1.35 - 85.67%
An accurate prediction, although 8CN came as a surprise to me, and I miscalculated FAN, so no points for this one.

Average Accuracy: 83.98%
Overall, a very tough weekend to predict, so it is still a good percentage :)

[sirdizzy]

yea but i got 0 points yoghurt beat that

[Master Yoghurt]

Well, I just did some checking of the summer box office contest, and noticed I actually never had 0 points. It was very close to 0 points this time though. DAD won over COS only by 317,000, so I was lucky to get away with 70 points :)

[JMK]

I was lucky to get away with zero points! :lol

[Master Yoghurt]

:lol !

Well, sooner or later, my luck runs out. One of these day I will really tank :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

It was a tough weekend, this weekend will probably be easier, I am certain Anaylze That will be #1, the biggest question is between #2 and 3 I think Hp2 will win 2 only because it was #2 for the 3 day weekend, it does better on Saturday and Sunday which will really help it. After that I guess I will have to see what else is coming out.

[Master Yoghurt]

You are probably right about Analyze That, but how can one be certain? I have seen bigger movies bomb. But yeah, next weekend seems a lot easier to predict :)

[Admiral Lebron]

I have it! I know why Yog wins! He is 6 or so hours ahead of us. Or whatever. He gets the numbers when we are still sleeping!

[ReaperFett]

So Marcus knows a day in advance ;)


Just think Lebron. Remove all us know it all European and Austrailians, and you're top :)

[Admiral Lebron]

Hmm...yes.>D

[sirdizzy]

i never got 0 points during the summer either its your turn now

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Analyze that is reall the first true comedy in a while, plus it is a sequel to a well liked film, and the trailers do look funny, have to think it will be #1, after that it might get difficult.

[ReaperFett]

It cant beat the originals hit the pillow joke. I was in stitches when that was in the trailer :)

[sirdizzy]

the original bored me