Tech stocks

[Darth Viscera]

their stock symbol is NVDA. They announced the stats for the NV30, which is going to kick the <smallfont color=#0060FF>-Censored-</smallfont> out of the ATI Radeon 9700 Pro. Stocks have gone up from 10 to 12.65 in the last 5 days, I'm investing $7,300 total in them today. Best yet, the price is at its lowest ever because the CEO or whatnot decided to run off with an accounting scandal, so its earning potential is like 500% of its current stock price, like Weimar Germany.

Goodbye economic recession, hello greenbacks! w00t w00t w00t

[JMK]

I unforunately don't have $7300 to invest! Or I'd take your word for it!

[Morgan Evanar]

Wow. I wouldn't buy stock in nVidia, who is having a lot of fabrication problems right now.

ATi is going to win this round.

[Darth Viscera]

I sold at 12.99.

I don't trust ATI, not for beans I don't. Their tech support is like trying to suck the blood off a removed tooth from a person with scurvey, followed by "Can I help you with anything else today?" after you've just been told that they can, for reasons a-x, help you with absolutely nothing any day.

And then there's 30% market share vs. 53% for Nvidia, and of those 30%, undoubtedly a good portion wouldn't be able to hold a candle to a Geforce 1 SDR. Their best customers demand lots and lots of very low end chips for Macs and budget PCs.

[Morgan Evanar]

Hrum, you seem to have a rather poor grasp of history. ATi was once in a similar postion to nVidia now, basically sitting on top of half of the OEM market.

nVidia took it by using the almighty TNT2. It wasn't an overnight thing, but it certainly did happen.

NV 30 is late, and ATi is going to be unchallenged until Febuary.

I'm so glad you follow the video card market as close as I do. Where's your proof aside from PR bullchit that nVidia has it under wraps? The chip JUST taped out, and yields are maybe 8 percent, while ATi's die shrink will come when its needed.

Please, grab a clue.

[Darth Viscera]

Morg, you can mop your piss up off my tree now. I don't pretend to keep up with the daily advancements in video card advanced fabrication mumbo jumbo. The only info that's immediately relevant to me is this:

1. Nvidia cards work, they produce good framerates and will get you a good 3dmark score.
2. ATI's tech support sucks.
3. I've made a $2,000 profit back in 2000 when Nvidia was cycling weekly from 37 to 43 for 6 weeks.
4. Such a profit *might* be feasible again, and seeing as how they're very low right now (12 points), it's worth keeping an eye on.

Please man, save the serotonin for someone who'll get riled up enough about die shrinks and whatnot to give a damn. I'm just in this for another quick few hundred dollars so I can finance an HDTV capture card or a DVD-R burner.

[Morgan Evanar]

I'm pissing on your tree because you're giving terrible advice.

1. Nvidia cards work, they produce good framerates and will get you a good 3dmark score... unless you're comparing it to a Radeon 9700. Bravo.

2. ATi's tech support has improved quite a bit. You obviously haven't talked to a Radeon 8500 owner in the past 6 months.

Even John Carmack finds them to be almost as good at nVidia's.

3. Good for you. Obviously you don't pay attention to the news. Recession mean anything to you?

4. See above.

Get in touch with reality.

[Darth Viscera]

Bottom Line:
If, within 1 year, Nvidia doesn't rise at least once to 24 points or above, I will eat my hat.

[Morgan Evanar]

I'd suggest you buy some salt, but I'm sure it will at some point.

[Darth Viscera]

I'm sure it will at some point.

That's all I'm trying to say.

[Darth Viscera]

Nvidia has jumped from 16.35 to 20.77 since Friday, following the announcement of the NV35. On Monday it peaked at about 21.50, it seems, and may be about to take a downward trend back towards 16. I'm going to see which direction the wind is blowing, and might very well sell today.

Shares I've held onto:
200 bought at $10
23 bought at $12.82

In: $2294.86
Out: $4631.71 (assuming I sell at the current price of $20.77)

So if you guys have listened to my advice to buy Nvidia, you're now a nice bit richer. Have fun blowing all your profits on computer upgrades :D :D :D

:rollin :thumbup

[Gurney Devries]

True, nVidia's stock is probably doing well. But that's because of foolish people who are believing their hype about first the NV30 and now the NV35. The NV30 was about on par with the 9700 Pro and the 9800 Pro smacks it around silly. I'm sure ATi will have a very solid answer to whatever nVidia pops out next.

[Darth Viscera]

Hey, whatever man. I just like the money. I'll probably pick up ATI stock and make some green off them too. :D

[Sanis Prent]

If its moved that much already, then the market has already acted on the news, and I wouldn't invest in it. This is strictly from a financial standpoint. You really want to almost act before knowing stuff like this has happened. Best way to capitalize on changes is to look for the warnings signs.

For instance, in mid March, I could see the way things were going, and purchased cruded oil put options. The market shifted, and I scored a heavy profit.

EDIT: Vis, that isn't a bad idea. If you hold some of both ATI and nVIDIA, you can hedge a significant amount of risk, due to the monopolistic competition in the industry. The only risks you'll look at will be industry-wide risks, which you could probably hedge with other securities if you wanted. At any rate, it would stabilize earnings and losses until a point in time when you caught some early information on either security, and could ditch the other to capture some quick profit.

[Darth Viscera]

Oh yeah, you don't want to buy Nvidia now, when it's high. Ideally, if you're looking to invest in Nvidia, you should buy it last August, when I first suggested buying it, and sell the day before yesterday, when it was at $21.50

[Darth Viscera]

Just looking over AMD's prices now. I wish I had picked up some of that stock in October when it was $3.00. Now it's $7.50.

Ah well. You win some.

[Darth Viscera]

Look at the attached 5-year chart for Intel. Does anyone else see massive earning potential?

[Darth Viscera]

And here's an ATI 5-year chart. Now would be a bad time to buy because it's on an up/down path which should last another 2 months or so, but when it drops again it'll be a great buy. If you place a buy order for $5.00, you might very well be able to sell it at $13.00 next time it fluctuates. It might very well take you a year to find that good $13 sell price, though.

[Mu Satach]

damn... I need to get back into market watching...

[JediBoricua]

I was so much into this crap before the bubble bursted, my dad lost about 50K in AOL stock only, some of his clients still are a million or more down the drain. Now you mention the word tech stock and I get startled. But your strategy makes sense Visc, everything is cheap now, it's the time to make some money (I wish I had some).

[Darth Viscera]

Yeah, I miss the salad days of 1999 too. I invested in Nvidia with scarcely $700 at the time and came out with $3200 after it kept bouncing weekly from 37 to 43.

[Sanis Prent]

I played a bit of intel stock on a tip, and it payed off nicely. I wouldn't infer a "massive earning potential" from either one of those, though. Those peaks are unnaturally indicative of the 2000 bull market that favored the tech sector so heavily. You're looking at two chip-making industries, so they're complements and will have similar broad movements. Furthermore, the industries they face now are more monopolistically competitive, rather than having an outright industry leader, which was the case in earlier years.

You won't win big off either one. You can post modest gains though, and if you play competitors off against each other, there's a great opportunity for a securities hedge, until some information falls in your lap. Even without a competition disparity, you can play yourself off against the futures market, which is probably a better bet anyways.