Huge Openings, Huge Drops

[Darth23]

Spiderman made a huge $114 million splash in early May, then had drops in the 30's 3 weeks in a row. Then we all freaked when AOTC followed it's $80 million opening with a few big drops before it settled down into decent run. But most of the Summer's Big Movies have had big openings followed by pretty big drops - 50% plus in the first weekend and 40's and 50's after that.

Minority Report and Lilo and Stich were pretty much the exceptions. Both debuted the same week with $35 million openings, and both managed pretty decent performances after than.

Good or Great legs:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Spiderman - $114.84 million opening
-37.81% (!!!)
-36.94%(!!)
-36.70%(!!)
-49.78%
-27.98%
-27.11%
-39.38%
-31.29%
-29.57%
-59.61%
-54.72%
-37.73%
-6.51%
-64.05%


AOTC - $80 million opening ($110 million in 4 days)
-40.17%
-56.13%
-33.29%
-32.64%
-45.43%
-28.79%
-33.19%
-47.70%
-20.37%
-24.44%
-19.04%
-44.44%



Decent legs:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lilo & Stich - $35.26 million opening
-38.98%
-41.27%
-36.50%
-38.02%
-45.04%
-50.31%
-64.40%

Minority Report - $35.67 million opening
-39.48%
-41.84%
-42.53%
-38.23%
-29.91%
-44.72%
-57.53%



Big Openings, Big Drops:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scooby Doo: $54.15 million opening
-54.8%,
-49.49%
-43.19%
-59.16%
-57.67%
-58.61%
-64.21%

Mr. Deeds: $37.16 million opening:
-50.46%
-41.11%
-32.56%
-41.91%
-50.41%
-69.20%

Men in Black 2: $52.14 million opening weekend ($87 million in 5 days)
-53.19%
-40.38%
-41.75%
-43.29%
-57.19%

Austin Powers 2: $73.07 million opening
-57.41%
-58.03%


Signs - $60.12 million opening
-51.00%


xXx - $44 million opening
(probable 50% plus drop)

---------------------------------------

So does it matter if heavily hyped movies drop big weeks after their debut? Spidey's performance, and TPM's 3 years ago showed that it's possible for a movie to to open big AND hold really well, week after week. The studios seem to be spending more and more money hyping th big movies, and they'r getting the big payoff - at least for the first week. They're also opening the major movies in more and more theaters. But it seems like eventually the bubble is going to burst.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Oops!? Here I was expecting an actual post. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

What happened Darth you forgot what you were going to post :p

[Quadinaros]

Interesting topic, D23. I agree with all your points. :|

[Darth23]

Sorry - I had a long way to go - but I hit the Submit Topic button too early.

:p :p :p

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Ah there it is! :):)

[JMK]

Maybe this is what the theaters want. Huge movies week after week. Put rears in seats, feed them pop corn and drinks, get them out and get the movie out too. Replace it with the next big thing and so on. I don't think it works for studios so well getting huge openings and then dropping like a stone, but when have distributors and theater chains ever got along?

[Marcus Telcontar]

It would help I think if the huge openers were actually GOOD. Cant really judge Signs for another few weeks

I sure would NOT put AOTC in the great legs catagory. decent only.

[Darth23]

I know that judging Signs is a bit premature, btu it also had a HUGE Monday, and dropped like a million bucks every day for the first week. It it was holding the interest of the audience better, it would have had a more consistent week, I think.


Plus a 50% drop after the first week is still a 50% drop. Especially coming off of a non Holiday weekend. It has stabalbizaed this week, (3.5 on Monday, 3.6 on Tuesday) but if it drops by 45 - 50 percent again this weekend then I think it deserves to be in the Big Drops category.


As far as AOTC goes, I'd keep it in the GOOD legs category. It only dropped 50% after the holiday weekend, and it followed that up with two 30-something percent drops in a row. It also had drops in the 20's a few times. Not nearly as good as Spidey, but among the other big movies this summer, only Minority Report had a drop in the 20's - one time, and that was very close to a 30% drop (29.91%).

--------------------

I guess the theaters want to constantly keep the theaters full, especially since most of them arent' making very much money directly off of the big movies in the first several weeks of the run. But the problem is that every movies is NOT a 'Big' movie. Some are just good or decent entertining flicks, not the "Thrill Ride Event of the Summer". And I think there can be some backlash against some movies when they are hyped that way.

[Jedieb]

Huge openings followed by big drops help studios, but hurt theaters. Studios get most of the early profits. A theater will make more money off sleeper hit that ends up grossing $150M, than a movie like Scooby which gets close to $150 by opening big and dropping like a stone. Studios LOVE Scooby type grosses. I think this trend is going to stay around for some time. You'll have the occasional big openers who manage to hold on well; FOTR, Spidey, and AOTC, but most will go the route of Scooby, MIB2, and Mr. Deeds. I think that theaters are going to have to stand fast and renegotiate some of these opening week returns. They're in enough trouble as it is.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think you are right there Jedieb the Studios are making probably 70%-80% of the gross of these films that drop huge, its in there interest to change this, thought they don't seem to be in a rush to do so so far.

[flagg]

I thought AOTC and Spidey had about the same legs? Spidey may have done better in the first couple of weeks, but AOTC did better after that, especially once it stopped hemmoraging theaters.

[Darth23]

Yeah,

Too bad that 62% of 114 million is a LOT more than 60% of 80 million. :p

Spidey's smaller drops early on sent it into top 5 terrirory.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

<a href=http://movies.nintendominion.com/editorial.php?requestedid=60>I ignore the stats.</a>

:p

[Darth23]

from the link above:

Ignore the stats. They're moronic, and totally off base with the quality of the product and even the quantity of people that actually enjoy the movie.

Well most BO followers don't think there's a direct correlation beteen A a movie's box office take and how good, entertaining, or worthwhile it is.

Most of us probably think at leas ONE movie one the 'top ten' BO list is absolute crap.

And most of us probably have some favorite movies that totally flopped at the box office, or maybe never even play on enough screens to actually flop.

Of course, most media box office reports at least give you the impression that money=quality, and the number one gorsser is the best movie. But then the media pretty much portrays all entertainment that way.

Actually, they generally tend to project the idea that money is the only important thing a lot of the time.


Still, Stats can be fun to look at - and they're a lot less subjective than the subjective reviews that come from the 'film experts'.

-----------------

Like with this HUGE opening thing. the stats are showing us that movies are opening biggr than ever, and generally dropping more than ever. The overall numbers are HUGE, and still growing, probably, but the big drops could indicate, I believe, a certain restlessness with the movie going audience.

And if this is true, then it's possible that enough people will get restless enough with most of what's coming out of Hollywood that they they STOP showing up on opening weekend - no matter how many trailers and tv commercials pump up the latest Big Event Movie.

It's also possible that try as they might, the studio can't keep coming up with the Big Winners. They're moving more and mopre to sequels, tv, video game, comic book adaptations, and even some books - but mostly because they think there's a built in audience and guarenteed dollars for the movies, not because necessarily because they think a quality film cam be made from the source material.

What if most of next year's Big Movies drop by 60% in week two? or 70% even? What if several of next years 'Sure Things' have mediocre or even downright poor openings to go along with no legs in week 2 and beyond?

The past few years movie revenue has gone up mostly due to increased ticker prices (more state) and NOT because more people are going to the movies, or more tickes are being sold.

Anyway I think that you can use stats to see possible patterns emerging. I love a lot of big movies that Hollyweird makes, but I DO thonk they're spending too much money making too few big, high-cost 'sure things' and that they're putting too much emphasis on the "Open Big or Die" philosophy.

And I think it's going to end up hurting them eventually.

[Jedieb]

I thought AOTC and Spidey had about the same legs? Spidey may have done better in the first couple of weeks, but AOTC did better after that, especially once it stopped hemmoraging theaters.

I would have to give the edge to Spidey. Their percentages are very close, but when you consider that Spidey had a much bigger opening weekend to hold on to, more theaters to fill, and that it's early holds were stronger than AOTC despite its record setting opening, well, that's why we got $403 V. $300M. But AOTC's legs were stronger than say HP, but not as strong as FOTR. So in terms of legs, out of the last 4 big movies I'd say we come in behind FOTR and Spidey, but ahead of HP.

Hey, some of us have been saying money doesn't equal quality for YEARS! All you have to do is follow films long enough and you learn that. Eventually, something you love will tank and something you hate will crack the all time list.

If these big openings are follwed by even bigger declines (60%, 70%) then I really feel for theater owners. The studios are still raking in around 70% of the gross in those first weeks, so they're happy. The movies sputter just around the time the theaters get the majority of the gross. The studios have taken the money and run. Where's the financial incentive to change? Theater owners are in a weak position because they're are too many screens out there already. I think we may see a few more bankruptcies in the next few years before another trend comes along.

[JMK]

Its a shame too, because so many chains have put SO much money into renovating or building new giant multiplexes for us all, and they're probably all losing money big time.

Don't theaters make the majority of their revenue from concessions regardless of what percentage of gross they are alloted?

[Jedieb]

They make a great deal of money from concessions. I've never heard what the actual percentages are though. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of their money came from concessions with the way everything is so overpriced.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Well, now you know the reason why everything is overpriced. Not enough movies filling theatres week after week. Titanic must have been a dream for theatre managers, cause it did not make so much in it's first few weeks.

I tend to look at longevity like this...

Less than 3* opening gross - bad

between 3 to 4 * openening gross - good, acceptible

4 - 6 times = excellent

6 and over - a theatre owners wet dream

Now, with most of the money going to the studios first few weeks, they just dont care if the movie has no staying power - they want the cash straight up. Good for their investors and good for their bottom lines, cause they can pay off finance costs fast.

Hey, get 100 million in a week and 50 million after that, or 20 million in a week, but 250 million after that? The answer makes sense to us, but to a studio, they are looking at the fast buck, so they go with senario one, go for the shrot term and dont invest. Fast returns is the name of the game.

Which is why I will suggest we should be glad we have Mirimax and New Line, smaller studion prepared for the long shots and the long play moives, not the instant gratification. Although.... now New Line have their hands on what has got to be the franchise with the most potential dollars in it, they might change. But good on them, they took one hell of a risk and I'm glad to see it's paid off in such a huge way. Maybe more studios will learn and go for the long shots instead of the fast bucks. (Have to remember cuase in hindsight it's easy to say good move, but New Line sunk 300 million into the LOTR project before they got a cent back. That must have been a nightmare cuase there were no guarenttees it was ever goign to work. But, it''s those type of risks that okay, may bankrupt a studio, or OTOH, pay off beyond anyone's imagining. Like Titanic I might add, that was seen as a money black hole of 170 million or something obsence like that. Payoff of 1.8 billion USD later..... looks to be a good risk, eh?)

[JMK]

Yeah, Titanic was a decent risk in hindsight. ;)

[Marcus Telcontar]

So was Star Wars. 10 million was a crap load of money in 1977, who would have thought the payoff would have been as huge as it was?

[JMK]

Lucas did. Look at him now.

[Jedieb]

FOTR really was a risk. All you have to do is look at DUNE to see how badly they COULD have screwed up. Regardless of whether you like the Dune flick starring Kyle Mc. and Sting, it was a B.O. disaster and got bashed by critics and moviegoers. In hindsight, FOTR might look like a sure winner, but it could have gotten butchered.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah and then the theaters would have been stuck playing the sequels which nobody would have went to see that would have been a disaster, thank god it did end up like Dune that film was horrible.