A FIRST? AOTC drop less than Spider-Man's!

[JonathanLB]

31% drop for AOTC to $3.56 million, 34% drop for Spider-Man.

Whoo hoo! Great staying power for AOTC given two new releases, one large, and a loss of about 12% of its theaters. Actual per-theater average declined about 20% then.

Now, with Spidey and AOTC playing in equal numbers of theaters, AOTC wins both in dollars and in percentage decline. Not that it matters much, but this is good for our chances at $300M I'd say. I never thought $300M was in any doubt, though, and I still don't. I don't agree with any predictions short of $300M because I think it'll crawl to $305M or so. $303M maybe. But it'll cross the $300,000,000 mark in the U.S. alone.

Oh, and I'm also happy to say that my theater, Evergreen, will keep AOTC at least through July 11. I can already confirm that on Fandango.

I would not be totally shocked if AOTC finishes at the same rank it held last week. Windtalkers supposed made $3.60 million to AOTC's $3.56, but final numbers could be just slightly higher for AOTC and slightly lower for Windtalkers and then AOTC would place 9th, same as last weekend. Also, its per theater average is the SEVENTH best in the top ten, not the tenth, so there are a few movies above it that should be the victims of theater loss instead of AOTC, otherwise something is just wrong.

At least my theater makes sense. My theater is dropping one screen for Minority Report and one screen for Lilo and Stitch to make room for Like Mike, Powerpuff Girls, and MIB2, but they also are dropping a screen for Windtalkers, almost. Windtalkers gets 1 showing per day starting this Friday, so it'll share screens with something else. Same goes with Insomnia, which apparently has the final showing of the day in the same auditorium as Powerpuff. So basically they figured they'd go ahead and give that one 2 matinee screenings and an early evening, but take out the late showing in favor of Insomnia. Probably a good call.

Still, both Windtalkers and Insomnia opened after Star Wars, but effective this weekend, both will have fewer screenings per day.

AOTC has still shown ok staying power, definitely hasn't been a disgrace to Star Wars or anything, hehe. I had hoped for much better staying power even, but it hasn't been *bad*, just hasn't been good either.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Box Office Mojo thinks it might pass Windtalkers, I think it will pass Ya Ya crap next weekend could also pass the SOAF maybe, that is the only way it will stay in top 10 which would be awesome. I think too this is a good sign we will make it to 300, I think we can still make it to 305-308 range its possible at least 305 would put us at 12 on the all time list passing ID4, and if we can make 308 we would pass ROTJ putting us at 11 and making AOTC the third highest grossing film in the US (I think we will have that figure WW shortly once we pass TESB). Either way it will be close, oh by the way I think we passed Home Alone this weekend, and thank god we passed that POC, I think AOTC is now in the top 15 pushing Home Alone out of that list, we should pass TESB and The Sixth Sense soon though and will defintely be the 13 highest grossing movie.

[JonathanLB]

I love it how everyone has been saying for THREE WEEKENDS now, or maybe even four, "Well it looks like Spider-Man will pass AOTC next weekend."

Uhh, it has not gotten any closer to happening than it was three weekends ago really. Spider-Man is still not even close to passing AOTC and I very much doubt it will until the one weekend where Spidey hits dollar theaters and AOTC is still not in them, then, BOOM, Spidey will get the boost it needs, but a week or two later, AOTC will hit dollar theaters and annihilate Spidey all over again.

I figured Spider-Man would have a tough time passing AOTC, it just ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Your pobably right - I think Spider Man has really ended it's run now. I would think Star Wars will linger for longer, with people like yourself just going back again and again.

I just wish the relative B.O. results were reversed - AOTC had the 400 million

[BUFFJEDI]

yeah but look, the shoved Spider-man down our throats. it had two week run all by its self, and a million screens. fro the past 4-5 weeks AOTC has had far better per screen avg.But than agian you know my opinion on Supposed Box-office grosses, But if I'm wrong(yeah right) I still say AOTC would have made 500 if it had been but out like in NOV. Look how much HP and LOTR made in those month's.there was no competition and those two movie's where crap.so AOTC would have racked up.

[Jedieb]

AOTC Weekend 7
$3,560,000 / $286,145,000 / 31% drop / $1,977 average
Spidey Weekend 7
$7,515,984 / $382,537,669 / 27% drop / $2,782 average on 902 MORE screens!

Who are we "annihilating?" ;) Sorry, I couldn't resist. It's pretty obvious we're not doing well head to head against Spidey domestically at all. We're still not guaranteed $300M even with 31%. We need to see some %20 holds. Especially when you consider the screens are going to start falling week after week. One 40% drop and we're in we're really going to have to scramble for $300M.

[BUFFJEDI]

your not getting what i'm saying Eb(s)

let me think on how to say it and i'll get back to you :headbash

[foxdvd]

Well this will be a good week for all movies, and AOTC should make more this week then it did last week, and about the same for the weekend.....

[Marcus Telcontar]

FOTR WAS CRAP?!?!?!?!

For saying that you are hereby sentanced to watch Glitter AND Titanic until you repent!

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am confident it will make it to 300 I just think it will, it only needs 14 million and I think it will do it.

[JonathanLB]

$300M is not a problem...

FOTR was not crap, it was a wonderful film. The best movie of the year. I loved it. It's just such a great story. It's the best literary work of the 20th century IMHO. Tolkien is the Lucas of literature. He is a genius and his story is stunningly awesome. I cannot wait for TTT... Star Wars is still better, but dang I enjoy LOTR too, it's a great story. It seems silly to say "so and so is better" when both are so great that you are amazingly entertained by either, so who cares?

Spider-Man weekend 7, well whatever, I'm talking about now. Spider-Man is not going to pass AOTC anytime soon at this rate. It's not making any progress whatsoever.

[flagg]

What is up with the daily numbers at Box Office Mojo? They now have AOTC ahead of Windtalkers on Friday and Saturday, but still number ten for the week.
MGM must be really desperate to hold onto that number nine position :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

MGM probably made a high estamite to make the movie look better for their investors, I bet when the finals come out Windtalkers will be 10th, I don't see why it matters to them, the movie is going to loose half of its screens this coming weekend.

[Lady Vader]

*huggles Jonathan for getting her hopes back up*

Yay! Wanna see AOTC pass 300 mil! I wish it could pass 400 mil, but dunno about that. But 300 would be nice to see. :)

[Jedieb]

The actuals show a drop of only 29%. Even better than the estimates. Every point counts and the earlier the better. Another hold in the 20%'s and $300M should be reachable by the middle of August. But again, anything in the 40%'s, and it's going to start crawling and probably not make it. It'll be interesting to see what MIB2 does to both AOTC and Spidey this weekend. Similiar core audiences and it'll draw in kids. Much stiffer competition than what we saw this past weekend.

[JonathanLB]

Well maybe this is a weird theory, but I really don't think, besides losing theaters, that MIB2 will hurt either Spider-Man or AOTC. I think the types of people who see either of those two movies at this point, i.e. week 8 for AOTC, week 10 for Spider-Man, are exactly those types of people who avoid large crowds and wait until a film has already been in theaters for a long time. Either that or they are people like you and I who have already seen AOTC, but want to go back yet again. So they are set on seeing AOTC or Spider-Man again, regardless of MIB2, but they may go see both (as I will for sure). That's my opinion, anyway. I think both Spidey and AOTC will fall in the high 20's to mid 30's...

LV, maybe someday AOTC will cross $400M :) Release #4 or something, in 2025, haha, I dunno.

I personally cannot wait to see TPM kick E.T.'s butt all over again. The next release and that movie is toast.

The greatest day of all would be if ANH were released and made exactly $145 million. It would then pass BOTH Titanic and Gone With the Wind on two different lists. It would pass Titanic at $600M for #1 unadjusted, and it would pass GWTW as #1 adjusted for inflation, where it would likely reign for decades, if not all time. No movie besides ANH has a realistic chance at #1 adjusted. Because of the changing times, movies simply cannot sell that many tickets now, not even a Titanic, which didn't come anywhere close to selling as many tickets as GWTW. So basically it would take something like a Titanic, PLUS great repeat value so they could re-release it over the following decades, and then it would take literally 30 to 40 years just to claim first, just as ANH will take probably 30-45 years to wrestle first from GWTW. But when it does, it will sit on its throne for all of time and protect it with multiple re-releases throughout the years :)

[BUFFJEDI]

I have a question for you JON.

what film on the FIRST run holds the adjusted box office gross.I was always under the impression tha it was ANH.

[JonathanLB]

That is a good question, but to be honest, I think it is Gone With the Wind or Titanic.

Titanic sold more tickets than ANH in its first release. ANH sold 99.2 million tickets, Titanic sold 130 million. Significantly greater number there, but I wouldn't worry about it. ANH's strength comes from the biggest of all tests: the test of time. It has sold about 70 million tickets AFTER its first release, which is just mind-boggling. Most movies never sell 70 million tickets. Only about 50 movies, I think, have ever sold that many tickets. Yet that is just what ANH has sold AFTER it was already first released.

Now not to take anything away from Titanic, but I very much doubt it manages to have a re-release anything like the 1997 SE release, and I doubt it sells 70 million more tickets. I will tell you one thing, though. ANH will sell many tens of millions more tickets in the next few decades. It'll continue to be re-released over and over for new generations to enjoy. Probably in the next release or two, ANH will end up having sold more tickets after its first release than during its first release, hehe.

[CMJ]

I remember reading near the end of "Titanic" 's run that it was the highest grossing(with inflation taken into account) first run film. It passed GWTW at around 560M or so if I remember correctly. But remember that was 560M in '97/'98 so that would be what....like 700M now I guess.

[JonathanLB]

No inflation hasn't been that steep.

Not $560M, if that is what you mean.

Titanic's $600 million is about $700M today though.

[CMJ]

Okay...so when "Titanic" 's 560M passed GWTW it was about what...650M in today's money??

[JonathanLB]

Yeah.... hmm, that sounds about right. Maybe even $660M

[Jedieb]

1977 ANH $210,439,000* (Adj. for Inflation) $ 621,340,000

If I remember right, that includes ANH's 1978 numbers. Which I have always thought should count because ANH continued to play in many theaters for over a year. It received a bump in the number of screen in 78, but you can take it whatever way you want. I"ve got a lot more stuff on ANH early run, but I've got to take a quick run to the pharmacy. Just remember, whenever you look at ANH's early numbers, you have to be sure whether or not you're looking at B.O. grosses or B.O. rentals. They're not the same and rentals are what was used to report B.O. figures in the 70's.

[JonathanLB]

Yes that is true, BUT in the late 1970's they did keep track of the ACTUAL grosses too, unlike many earlier movies from the '60s where all they had was rental numbers and had to make estimates as to the actual box office gross based on rental numbers. With ANH, they know for sure that the gross is accurate (or as accurate as any modern gross) because they did keep track of that. Variety reported ANH's opening few days gross, for instance, and everything else too. They also kept track of rental revenue...

The 1978 release is separate, so if you included that, EB, it should be higher than $621M adjusted. Although I am pretty sure you are right that ANH was still playing at the time the 1978 release happened, lol. It was again re-released in 1979. That's so weird. That could never happen today. It probably never will happen again that a film is released once each three years in a row, then plus 1981 and 1982, then 1997.

[Jedieb]

ANH & RE-releases
77 - 127.0M
78 - 38.375M
79 - 11.538M
81 - 9.386M
82 - 8.362M

These are B.O. rental figures. They were used widely throughout the 70's and 80's. For the most part, if you looked at a year's best list during that time you were looking at rental figures. These figures can be found in Almanacs from the late 70's and early 80's.
Those figures give you a total of $193.8. At some point in the 80's it was changed to the preSE total of $322M.

Here are ANH's approximate grosses for all of its major releases:
1977 $210,439,000* (Adj) $621.34(I was wrong, this was ALL in 1977!!!)
1978 $63,587,375* (Adj) $173.25M
1979 $19,118,466 (Adj) $46.92M
1981 $15,552,602 (Adj) $29.59M
1982 $13,855,834 (Adj) $24.15M
1997 $138,207,268 (Adj) $154.16

[Dogsmack]

Heres a hypothetical question.

If Titanic was released in the same era as Star Wars do you think that it could beat SW boxoffice or not? SW had the advantage of being released in the Pre Video, Pre DVD & Pre Internet era. Choices were very limited then. Titanic had no such advantage yet it became a boxoffice monster. Do you think SW could do Titanic numbers if it were released today for the very first time? Just wondering what you guys think.

:angel

[CMJ]

It's impossible to say really....sometimes movies hit at the "perfect" time.

[BUFFJEDI]

So there is no REAL, 100% , fact of what ANH made on first run?? Also there not saying 1978 was a re release of ANH , right ?? because if they are I can't see how considering that it was held over for like a 100 weeks in some place's and 95 weks in others. I have a news paper ad (somewhere) where ANH was held over for 101 weeks in charlotte NC alone.


Also had Titanic(although a great movie) had it been put out in the summer of 1997 it would have only made half of what it did. In 1977 it would have been a failure,

[BUFFJEDI]

1977 $210,439,000* (Adj) $621.34(I was wrong, this was ALL in 1977!!!) well how come in the the almanac's they have ANH only making 194 mil ?? on first run??

ad the fact that 1978 was not a re release you have another 63 mil ad together you have roughly 275 mil on first run in unadjusted money . Now et made what 225 mil?? how did they have ET being box office king for awhile???

[CMJ]

Well buff...the '78 reissue is considered a rerelease, which is why "E.T." was considered the champ. Man...this whole rental thing sucks...you'd think the Studio's were trying to make our lives miserable. ;)

[Jedieb]

First, you have to take a look at your Almanac and see when it was published. That might explain the discrepency buff. I got my numbers when I did some research awhile back. I looked at Almanacs, I called the Motion Picture Association's Research Library, etc. $194-$210 isn't that far off. To get these numbers you have to multiply the early B.O. rentals by a certain number. ET was the King for well over a decade. It's grosses were recalculated in Almanacs in the mid 80's along with the other films and it held on to the top spot. I'll see if I can find my Almanac research and spot when they changed their numbers.

[BUFFJEDI]

But how is it a reissue when it was still out in theaters,? because they added more screens? If so they do it now a day's ,sometimes acouple of weeks after it's out . Is that considered a re release??

but what you say is true CMJ , they did it to make us miserable :lol

[BUFFJEDI]

Off topic>>>.. I had a dream about you Jedieb(s) last night .O_o

no joke :D .

not that kind>_<

[CMJ]

Buff they didn't just add a few screens...they went from like 50 to 1000 or something like that.

And when films do that nowadays...they typically DO call that a reissue.

Strange I know....

[Jedieb]

buff, in your dream, was I kicking someone's ass? It makes me feel good to know I'm whuppin' butt in at least one plane of existance. :cool

[BUFFJEDI]

Buff they didn't just add a few screens...they went from like 50 to 1000 or something like that. Oh , I'm so confused :x :x

[BUFFJEDI]

I kicking someone's ass? It makes me feel good to know I'm whuppin' butt in at least one plain of existance :lol :lol

no it was kind of strange and I feel wierd talking about it o_O but than agian I am wierd:D .

I do not remember it fully but you had came for a visit. I was ignoring you . the reason I was ignoring you was that in my dream I was not BUFF (as in the macho man I am in the forum).so you where stuck hanging with my brother??while I went shopping for Halloween candy?? and costume's??we were at the house my father built like when i was 3. so as the dream went on you turned into a friend of my brother's that he grew up with (my big brother).but in the dream we were all like 15 16 years old but grown up ???but yet I never saw what you looked like But i knew it was you.

I know WIERDO_o :huh

anywho You did kick the bully on the blocks ARS!!!;)

[Jedieb]

Now that I've read what your dream was... I don't think I've ever been more frightened in my entire life. ;)

[BUFFJEDI]

:lol :lol

yeah, it was worse dreaming it O_o

[Jedi Master Carr]

Strange Dream buff
About Titantic, I agree that it wouldn't have done as well in the summer of 97 it would have appeared in late July and against Air Force One and later in August Conspiracy Theory two big movies which both did well, Air Force One made over 45 million in its first weekend and did about 150 million domestically that year, I guess Titantic would have made 250-300 max if released late in that summer, could be one reason why it was held off because of the competition.

[JonathanLB]

I think realistically Titanic would still have made about $450 million had it been released during the summer, but stiffer competition would have forced it out of theaters earlier and also drawn people away from it.

The truth is, Titanic could have made as little as $200 million, had it opened in the right frame. Once it had momentum, it was UNSTOPPABLE. Do not underestimate the power of the media and those box office figures. It used that holiday period to hold onto first and even increase its box office gross in a weak frame, then continued VERY weak competition (under $10M-15 opening weekends from almost every film it played against, now tell me that is not incredible). If it had opened on May 10, 2002, for instance, it would face Spider-Man at a time when Spider-Man was stealing a great deal of media coverage, then it would face Star Wars, a much greater phenomenon, which would take away almost any press Titanic could generate, and steal first place on its first weekend. Repeated openings of 2-3 movies per week would then take away screens from Titanic slowly but surely because amidst a busy summer season, make no mistake, one movie cannot hold on to first for 15 weeks. It is IMPOSSIBLE in today's market. I would bet my entire SW collection and everything I own on it. The moviegoing public is fickle. Movies cannot remain in first for that long of a time now. It will never, ever happen again. There is too much film product.

Now, in the dead of winter in what exhibitors called a "surprisingly weak box office season" (this is a quote from Variety in 1998), Titanic had little trouble remaining in first for 15 weeks or whatever. It was a shockingly awful period at the box office with no real competition whatsoever. Had Titanic faced a movie such as Hannibal, it would have been blown away at least for a weekend, and probably two weekends, and that type of competition would have destroyed some of the "allure" of seeing a film that has been #1 for so long.

Would anyone seriously deny that its longevity in first had an effect on its box office gross? I think there is no question that many people felt obligated to see it after it remained in first so long and with no other good movies to see basically. People ARE curious and that film had a snow ball effect.

CMJ said some movies have a "perfect time," well Titanic really did enjoy a perfect release time. Not to take anything away from it, because it was a phenomenon, but sorry, I do not think it is the type of phenomenon that Star Wars is or LOTR is, even. I believe that you could release LOTR ANY time you want and that timeless story would draw crowds and do amazingly well. Star Wars is the same. It works in all times, in all generations, because it is a myth that relies on archetypical themes, which is a huge deal of its appeal ("The Magic of Myth" book explains well). I think Spider-Man would do well at most times, but I believe it's somewhat in the same boat as Titanic, forgive the pun. Spider-Man may have only made $250 million had it been released at another time. VERY good, no doubt, but it never would have seen $400M. It did face stiff competition, but let's face it, the film had most of its money before Star Wars opened. It made, what, $250M before AOTC even opened? $115M in three days plus a $40M week or so plus a $73M weekend or whatever plus three more weekdays, it made a lot before it faced ANY other competition. Damage: done. The nation wanted a story about a super hero and Spider-Man provided that, I think.

We all predicted it would make about $180M to $300M at most, and it way overdid that. So something gives, and that something is its release frame and the state of the nation. In other countries, it was not able to duplicate that success, adding a great deal of heft to the theory that the U.S. wanted a hero movie and that it had a perfect release date here.

Titanic, though, did well in every country it played in, but you have to wonder how much of that was BECAUSE of its success in the U.S. and the amazing hype. Still, you can't claim that Titanic succeeded on hype. That's absurd. I still think it was not guaranteed to make so much no matter what. It capitalized on a weak frame in theaters, including internationally, and took that to the bank. I still think no matter what, it would have made $800 million or so worldwide, but given perfect conditions, like it had, it made $1.835 billion.

[flagg]

Good point, Jonathan. I think if Titanic had been released in the summer of 97 as originally planned (up against films like The Lost World, Men in Black, Air Force One, etc.) It might have made as "little" as $300 million. It still would have been the year's number one film, but possibly not quite the same level of phenomenon. Not to take anything away from Titanic (I never jumped on the backlash bandwagon, even when it passed our beloved Star Wars) but it was really a case of the right film in the right place at the right time.
Competition DOES matter. How much do you think Spider-Man and Attack of the Clones would have made if they hadn't gone head to head? I think AOTC could have made $400 million and Spidey might have had a shot at $500 million. I also agree about Spider-Man being mostly an American phenomenon. It's not coming anywhere close to AOTC's box office in Europe. In the U.K. it's well behind AOTC's pace after three weeks, and Minority Report comes out Friday so Spidey isn't going to catch up.