We're not going to make it to $300M

[Jedieb]

Maybe my numbers are wrong, but I don't think AOTC is going to hit $300M. Catching the likes of FOTR and HP seems a certain impossibility. $5.1M off a 45% decline does not bode well for a plus $300M run. It looked as if the declines had leveled off in the 30% range, but this weekend's drop makes me think we'll be in the 40%'s from now on. Even if we do jump up to the 30%'s a couple of times, the grosses are so low it's not going to have much of an effect. If somebody else wants to crunch the numbers I'd encourage them to do so, but I don't think you're going to do much better.
Oh, well, still loved it. :D

[JMK]

I didn't crunch any numbers, but judging on this past weekend's poor performance, I don't think its going to get there either. We may be looking at finishing #4 for the year. Who on earth would have thought that?

Oh well still loved it! ;)

[flagg]

Hmm, much negativity I sense in this topic. :)

So certain are you? I believe that if AOTC continues at it's current rate of decline, it will top out at about $295 million. HOWEVER, that is when it should get its second wind from discount theaters. I don't know how much TPM made from dollar theaters, but AOTC should be able to make at least a few million. So let's say AOTC has $299 million by the end of the summer. Do you really think Fox and Lucasfilm will pull it from theaters before it crosses the big 300. I don't think so! :)
AOTC will make 300, even if they have to keep it in theaters until the DVD release.

[JMK]

Sure, but there's a difference in earning 300M, and just barely making it there. Look at Pearl Harbor, the studio waited forever and ever hoping that it would cross 200M, and it just became embarassing after awhile. I wouldn't want Fox/Lucasfilm to resort to that.

[ReaperFett]

Does it really matter? It wouldn't beat TPM, that was obvious before it even got released. It's not as if bad sales with cause number three to be lower budget or not released at all. What do we gain? Nothing.

[Lady Vader]

NOOOOO!!! Depressing!!! Don't want to hear depressing news!!!

*Plugs ears and starts humming, living in blissful ignorance.*

:p

[JonathanLB]

I think it'll definitely hit $300M.

It never needed declines better than in the 40's to do that. It needed 30's to reach like $315M, which is an impossibility now I would think. I mean, seriously, it has no chance at that THIS release...

Release 2 is not far off, though, hehe. Maybe 4 to 5 years. :)

Well any movie gets a significant boost from dollar theaters and generally has the ability to make a solid $5 to $10 million while there. They often hang around there for some time. Like TPM was making $800,000 a weekend or so even near the end of its run I think, err, in January 2000, so total it was pulling in a solid $1 million per week. Not much, but over a month you got $4M and at this point we are just talking penny pinching, relatively speaking here, hehe.

Anyway, before you ask yourselves where AOTC will finish, tell me how much money you think Spider-Man will make from now on.

If you really think Spider-Man will make it to $420M, that's $30 million more, yet Spider-Man made LESS last weekend than AOTC. So are you saying AOTC cannot even make $25 million more even though the two movies are falling at roughly the same rate (slightly better for Spider-Man, but not a huge difference)? Hell it doesn't need $25M more, it needs like $20M more.

I think we'll make it. Fox won't let it stop short.

[imported_QuiGonJ]

I'm with Jon on this one.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/starwars/versus2.htm

It's ahead of where LOTR was at this point.. declining faster, true.. but boxofficemojo and I both see $300 million happening fairly easily. It's still getting close to a million a day on the weekdays. Should do it.

[JonathanLB]

Well also, we are really close here, I didn't realize it just crossed $380 today, whoops, wasn't paying good enough attention.

It should make $2 million for the rest of the weekdays, 3 weekdays, and then $3.5 million maybe this weekend. That's $5.5 million more, up to nearly $386. That's already plenty to put it easily on course for $300M.

Generally when a film hits dollar theaters it actually experiences a substantial boost, both in theaters and in dollars and percentage increase. As you said, EB, it doesn't make a huge difference at that point, but we are close enough so that every $1 million DOES count.

[Lady Vader]

*Unplugs ears and walks to the side of optimistic ppl where she won't receive depressing news.*

:p

[JonathanLB]

Welcome to our side, LV, hehe. :)

I wouldn't say it's THAT depressing, but I think AOTCs box office run was a bit disappointing, to me at least, not to Lucas and Fox perhaps, but to me. Overall, though, very, very, very few movies ever make $300 million. Out of the 250+ movies that come to theaters each year, generally only 1-2 of them actually break $300M. Maybe 3 or 4 is possible, like this year, but that's still very rare.

AOTC is in the 99.99th percentile of all movies ever made in gross, but it's just we wanted it to be even better than that, more like the 100th percentile ;)

[Jedieb]

I'm glad to see this hasn't gone way off tangent and gotten too negative. I started the thread because I looked at the numbers and it started to dawn on me that it was going to be much tougher to reach $300M than we thought just a few weeks ago. After a couple of weeks of 33% declines we got spoiled. This latest week was a big hit on the road to $300M+. It certainly cost us legitimate shots at FOTR and HP and the all time top 10. If we do make it to $300M we're going to limp across.

But here are some things to consider. If we average M-Th. declines of only 35% and weekend declines of 40% we'll fall under $1M weekends by the weekend of 7/21. By then we'll only be at around $292M. We're going to need a significant boost from $1 theaters to get to $300M from there. You can't compare AOTC with FOTR or Spidey because both those films have had better staying power than AOTC. I wouldn't be surprised if Spidey passes AOTC in the top 20 daily and weekend rankings. AOTC declines are going to have to improve or I don't think it will make it to $300M. I've run the numbers with only a 30% decline and AOTC still only makes it to $299M and that's with it staying in theaters until the end of the year! This week's -45% drop was a bigger hit than we realized. Another one like that and I don't see how we could make it to $300M. If somebody can run the numbers and show we can get there I'd be happy to admit that I'm wrong, I really would.

But again, if I have to choose between numbers and a SW movie I loved I'll take the latter.

[JonathanLB]

Just watch and see, that's what I say.

Before long, it will hit dollar theaters, and those are not $1 theaters, at least not anywhere I've ever heard. My "dollar theater" is $3... Used to be $2 when TPM came out 3 years ago! They "remodeled" it (it still looks horrid) and then raised prices a buck, lol. I still remember when it used to be $1.50, when the Special Editions came out. I saw every SE movie in that theater too. I've never not seen a Star Wars movie at Valley, which is the only theater where I have seen every SW film besides AOTC, but that'll be there soon.

Actually, I nearly saw every SW film at Broadway Metroplex, but I just realized that I never saw TPM there. I saw ANH there on Feb. 1, 1997, that was when I became a fan, it was a defining moment for me for sure, and then I saw ESB there once, ROTJ there twice I think, and I saw AOTC there for time number 10 I believe. I never got to see TPM there.

Hey you know what is really cool?! Broadway Metroplex, which has only 4 screens, played AOTC 6 weekends so far, yet they were only obligated to play it for four weekends. Not only that, but I checked and they are keeping it for a SEVENTH weekend, despite dropping Spider-Man way back on week 5 (for Spider-Man). Obviously, then, Star Wars has been a bigger deal at that theater than Spidey.

It is interesting to see how different areas, even within one city, react differently to the movies. Like AOTC was #1 for FOUR weekends in Canada, not two. Or for instance, TPM played 14 weeks at Evergreen, but just about 8 to 10 miles away, it played 22 weeks at Movies on TV, which only has 3 more screens (16 vs. 13).

Anyway EB, I think pretty soon the rate of descent for AOTC will slow as the fans keep on seeing it and that makes up a higher percentage of the box office total. That sounds kind of hokey, but I seem to remember that as TPM trickled all the way down, it began leveling off even more than before.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I still think it will pass 300, it needs less than 20 million, 19.4 to be exact and I think it will do it I am the optomist here I guess, but Box Office Mojo thinks it will and they are the most accurate of the predicters IMO. As far as Spiderman it won't make 420, it might make it to 415 but could easily fall short of that as Jon said it needs 25 million to make it there and if AOTC can't make it to 300 than SM won't make it to 415 my guesses AOTC makes 303-308, Spiderman makes 412-417 that is guesses at this point, I say this also because both movies probably will have smaller drops, I don't see both movies dropping 40% every weekend from here out especially when you start getting down to under 5 million, sure Bad company will keep droping like that but that is because nobody wants to see it again, not to mention even once.

[Sanis Prent]

I think its incredibly lame that this topic even exists.

Star Wars defined the summer blockbuster. Honestly...look at past films, and even if you account for inflation, most of these box-office behemoths were a byproduct of Star Wars, and its heavy-release power. So when the OT came out...not only was it immensely successful, but it also had zero competition. Nobody in the industry really made movies like that. By RotJ they were starting to...but in all seriousness, it was a game of catching up.

Fast forward 16 years later to 1999, and you'll find one of the most lackluster blockbuster months in recent time. May 99 had no major releases. Why's that? Its not coincidence. Nobody wanted to share time with TPM, because they knew they'd get their clock cleaned. The only movie to do so, to my knowledge was Notting Hill, a retarded Hugh Grant movie that is as far removed from TPM as Martians are from Humans. 16 years of anticipation were partly to blame for TPM's success. Another factor was that there simply wasn't anything else out there. Oh sure, Austin Powers 2 came out, but it came out a good deal down the road, safely out of TPM's heavy gross period.

Now, the anticipation is mostly down. Most people seem indifferent to Star Wars...and quite a few loathe TPM, and those people get media time. The result is lowered expectation. Don't get me wrong, the expectation is still high...just relatively low compared to TPM. Oh yeah, combine that with a media industry that is no longer afraid of Star Wars stealing their box office. The Blockbusters Strike Back, if you will. Nobody ran from May...they flocked to it, and competed in it. AotC's run coincides with some extremely good and entertaining movies, where TPM's run generally did not. I really don't think its "dark" nature was a detraction at all. If it is, its negated by its impressive lack of Jar Jar. Face it guys. Expectations were just lower, and the industry isn't afraid of Star Wars now. Lucas created the Blockbuster monster. Now, he has to live with it. And so do you. Welcome to reality.

[ReaperFett]

It has about the same drop %age as ESB from ANH

[Darth23]

":. AotC's run coincides with some extremely good and entertaining movies, where TPM's run generally did not."

Entertaining or not, the fact remains that soemthing like 12 or 13 $100 million dollar grossing movies opened in the 15 weeks AFTER TPM debuted. (I'm not sure of the exact stat, but that's close). TPM still managed to make $431 million AND have a very good drop off rate. Especially compared to AOTC and even Spiderman.

Which means that people kept going to see TPM AFTER 'everyone' had seen and decided they hated Jar Jar, yippies ad everything else.

I sill maintain that one reason TPM did so well is because of a segment of the Star Wars audience that is mostly absent from the vocal internet fan debates: the kids.

Spiderman, Scooby Doo and Lilo and Stitch are all aimed, in part, at those groups and have all done 'surprisingly well' this Spring. While all Star Wars movies have kids as part of their audience, AOTC DEFINITELY is aimed more towards older fans than the previous movie - something that many on the net pretty much demanded. The result? Kids don't see it as often, or at all, and since most kids also bring along an adult or two, there's even more of an impact on the totals.

So it shouldn't be that much of a surprise that a Star Wars movie with less 'kiddie factor' would make less money than a Star Wars movie WITH the kiddie factor.


It really doesn't make much sens to try to blame AOTC's lower grosses on TPM. That would be the same as blaming ESB's lower grosses on ANH. And if you factor in AOTC's higher opening. It's not like people stayed away in droves on opening weekend.

Competition has definitely hurt AOTC. Not only Spiderman, but also the 2 or 3 wide releases every weekend after ATOC's opening. Including 3 new movies in week two. Spirit, Insomnia and Enough (rememebr them?) won't make $100 million, but they DID combine to take in $51 million dollars in AOTC's second week. Add in Spidey's $28 million and it's pretty understandable why AOTC dropped 40% - compared to TPM's 21% decline.

Since bigger declines early have more of an effect on the total box office gross, the fact that the studios went after Star Wars this time (and each other) is probably another big reason why AOTC is struggling to reach the $300 million mark.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Those are some great points Darth and I agree with you completely I think kids are a big reason why it didn't make as much at TPM, still it will make 300 (I still think so) and probably 700 million + WW, it probably will even pass ANH which stands in the low 700's I think which would make it the second highest grossing SW movie of all time that would be cool enough.

[JMK]

Yep, great points D23. I agree as well. I don't care what anyone else says either. 1999 had alot of big movies. Whether they were any good or not is a different story, but movies like Wild Wild West which took in over 100M really didn't have that much affect on TPM. Now a 100M (if that much) movie like the Bourne Identity is hurting AotC. So what's the excuse? Like you said, the kids and their parents aren't going to AotC like they did to TPM.

[Jedieb]

I don't think we can underestimate the impact Spiderman had on kid sales. Was there anything that TPM faced like Spidey? The animated fare seems to be stronger as well. Even Scooby seems to have done well with that audience. Even though it'll drop like a stone, it did open strong. Throw in the darker mood and more competition for the child audience and you've got part of the answer. I also think the lack of "newness" and less hype are hurting AOTC as well. That 16 year wait was huge. I think its effects carried beyond the opening weekend.

But I still can't get over the fact that AOTC is going to fall short of both HP and FOTR. Yeah they were winter movies, but they did have each other to compete against and they had less theater traffic to draw upon. Those are two sequels that are going to be interesting to watch. My money is on TTT. I think we're going to see HP's grosses drop into the low $200M range.

[Jedieb]

Since JMC mentioned the WW grosses. Here's where we stand as of 6/23.
1
Titanic
$1,835.4
1997

2
Harry Potter
WB
$966.7
2001

3
The Phantom Menace
Fox
$925.6
1999

4
Jurassic Park
Uni.
$920.1
1993

5
The Lord of the Rings
NL
$851.1
2001

6
Independence Day
Fox
$813.2
1996

7
Star Wars
Fox
$798.0
1977

8
The Lion King
Dis.
$771.9
1994

9
E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial
Uni.
$768.8
1982

10
Forrest Gump
Par.
$679.7
1994

12
Spider-Man
Sony
$649.4
2002

17
The Empire Strikes Back
Fox
$534.2
1980

25
Attack of the Clones
Fox
$486.3
$279.8
57.5%
$206.5
42.5%
2002

29
Jaws
Uni.
$471.8
1975

30
Return of the Jedi
Fox
$470.5
1983

I included the top 10 and then edited out the rest. I threw in Jaws just for the heck of it.

[Jedieb]

Theater counts for next week.
AOTC 1,801
(-306)

Spider-Man
1,810
(-468)

It looks like they're finally going toe to toe with their screen counts. This should be interesting.

[CMJ]

It's about freakin' time. ;)

I actually expect both films to be hit rather hard this week though.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Hmmm....


well with world wide, remember AOTC has not been released in Japan yet - worlds second biggest market. for some odd reason, LOTR comparitively bombed in Japan, which considering how many countires LOTR beat HP in, that is puzzling.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I didn't realize that ANH had made so much money overseas I thought it was lower, but oh well, AOTC will defintely be the 3rd highest grossing SW movie it is only 60 million behind ESB which should be a problem. As Marcus said it hasn't open in Japan yet nor Latin America or South Korea should pull in about 200 million from those 3 areas, should also make another 40 or 50 from Europe, Australia, etc. Also Spiderman is pretty much done overseas, it has been dropping hard in the UK, Germany and other parts of Europe a lot harder than Star Wars did so I'd say AOTC will beat out Spiderman at the box office overseas, Box Office Mojo is now predicting that Spiderman will do 350 and SW 440 about a 90 milllion differnence, I don't think either one will pass 800 million both might get into the top 10 it will be close though there as SW will have to pass ET at 768 it would need to do a little better overseas to do it realistically, AOTC will be 11th on the list which is still pretty good.

[Darth23]

Well Harry Potter had made all but about $60 million of it's total by the time FOTR debuted.

Spidey had another 180 million (or so) to go.

[Charley]

That makes sense, since Harry Potter is freakin weird and the Japanese are...freakin weird.

[Marcus Telcontar]

harry Potter's B.O. in Japan is just plain outstanding and unexplainable. I think it was 170 million? Incredible whatever it was.

[JMK]

I'm really anxious to see what happens now that AotC and Spidey have the same theater counts. Should be interesting indeed.

[Jedieb]

Box Office Mojo is now predicting that Spiderman will do 350 and SW 440 about a 90 milllion differnence,
AOTC is going to have to do better than that if it's going to win the WW battle. Spidey is going to outdistance AOTC by more than $100M in the U.S.

[CMJ]

Yeah...most distressing this is. At this point 300M looks far fetched. "Spider-Man" will most definitely break 400M.

In all truth..I would not be shocked for see AOTC drop under Spidey this weekend at the BO.

[JMK]

Oh boy, what would we think then? ;)

[Darth23]

Originally posted by CMJ
Yeah...most distressing this is. At this point 300M looks far fetched. "Spider-Man" will most definitely break 400M.

In all truth..I would not be shocked for see AOTC drop under Spidey this weekend at the BO.

NEVER!

We'll Never drop below the Spidey Side!!!!:crack

[JonathanLB]

Spider-Man and AOTC will be close this weekend, one way or another, it'll be close. AOTC may eek out a small victory, but you know it's only a matter of time probably until Spidey overtakes AOTC, but that's not a big deal. It's been many weeks now, plus we already know Spider-Man is going to win overall, duh.

Many people said that Spidey would overtake AOTC last weekend, and even the weekend before, but it didn't. We've done well...

[flagg]

Jedieb, where did you get those figures from? worldwideboxoffice.com has ROTJ at 574 million, ahead of ESB. Dangerous and disturbing this puzzle is :)
Anyway, whatever happens this weekend, AOTC will still make 300 million . . . eventually.

[Jedieb]

I copied those figures from boxofficemojo .

[Jedi Master Carr]

I have to think those numbers are accurate, Mojo is the most accurate site on the net in terms of international numbres.

[Jedieb]

%31 drop and a good weekday hold is a good sign. If we do this every week until the end of August then we'd be able to make it. But a single July drop in the %40 or more range and the party is over.

[flagg]

Do you think there are four million Star Wars fans in America?
The reason I ask is that if those four million fans all saw AOTC ten more times, it would add at least $200 million to the box office. We could do this . . . :)

[Roddy Two]

I want whatever drugs you just took to post that.

[Darth23]

Well if there's an Imax AOTC release in Spetember that coudl add a few million. Plus the July 4th weekend MIGHT help boost sales a bit, even though the loss of screens is working against it.

They should have gone for the 8 week minimums instead of the 4 week minimums. :p

[Jedieb]

Where did you hear about an IMAX release? That would be a spectacle to see.

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, I don't get it, are we the only loyal fans or what?

There are not enough fans like most of us here. The rest of our fanbase is pretty casual. If we did have one million fans like Buff and I, obviously Titanic would have fallen to TPM or AOTC.

1 million * $6 * 40 (50-10 because these fans probably would have seen the movies 10 times anyway, like many people here) = $240 million. Easily enough to sink Titanic. Add that onto TPM and you got $670 million.

However, Buff and I are the exceptions to the rule, hehe :)

Not everyone can be expected to have NO LIFE for three months and just go see a Star Wars movie over and over again, haha, j/k. I have plenty of time to do other stuff too, but you get the idea.

[BUFFJEDI]

:o ah jon you flatter me so :)

I do wish there where others that did continue to see AOTC more.I know money is tight these day's and there are a million things out there that people need to get done but IT"S STARWARS!!! If I have said it once I have said it a thousand times

1 GOD
2 Starwars
3 family
4 whatever comes what may.:)

but as long as Jon and I are alive we WILL make 300 mil, If Jon will just get a car :(

[Jedi Master Carr]

I heard about IMAX on the force.net they said it would be in September, I hope so there is an Imax theater about 3 hours from me I might go to it just for the experience. I think we won't drop too many screen this weekend, I think Windtalkers will take the steepest hit, Ya Ya sister will take a hit too, because it is basically done some of the older films (Enough, Insomina, Bad Company) might get pushed into Budget theaters because some of them are doing so poorly now. As far as seeing 10 times, I wish I could but, I just don't have the time, to do, plus now I would have to drive 30 minutes to see it which is tough on me. I have seen it 4 times, I might see it at least one more time, maybe 6 if plays at the IMAX theater at that is a lot for me, my current record is 7 for TPM, but 3 of those came at dollar theater (a real one) at Clemson.

[JonathanLB]

I guess for me right now, Star Wars is priority number one.

Not to say that my friends take a back seat, because they don't, but I've always maintained that any high priority is able to receive good enough treatment.

Freshman year, school was priority #1 (though Star Wars was more important, hehe). Then my senior year, first priority was my writing as an author, second maybe my work online, and third was probably college and SAT stuff, fourth was perhaps school. Nonetheless, I did excellent senior year. I had 10 A's, 1 B, 1 C (my first ever, ugg), but basically it was a great year. So just because school was a lower priority did not mean it suffered. More like anything not in the top 5 priorities would suffer, but the difference between 1 and 5 is not much.

If I had to give up college or Star Wars, which would I give up? College in a second. I can be successful and happy just because of who I am, but I cannot be happy if I had to give up my favorite hobby, Star Wars. So nothing is more important than Star Wars to me. Now, if I had a girlfriend, I would put a PERSON above something like Star Wars, but I wouldn't let anyone or anything distract from my enjoyment of LIFE either. There has to be a balance. When someone has a girlfriend and they start neglecting the activities they once enjoyed and ignoring their other friends, that is NOT a healthy relationship. There is something very wrong with someone who does that. It's all about balance. You have to learn how to balance the various aspects of your life without excluding important things.

Like some people who spend their time online and in chat rooms at the exclusion of hanging out with real life friends. That's simply not healthy. I bet they would agree it isn't either.

So when someone says something STUPID like, "Dude, you've seen AOTC 27 times? Get a girlfriend!" Dude, you WISH you had the money and time I do to see such a great movie 27 times, so ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. I get the last laugh on that one. If I had a girlfriend, guess how many times I'd have seen AOTC? 27 times. There is no reason why I'd have seen it fewer times. It would just mean I had something else to do while NOT seeing AOTC ;)

[flagg]

Originally posted by Roddy Two
I want whatever drugs you just took to post that.

You don't think there's four million Star Wars fans in America? I think every male moviegoer between the ages of ten and thirty is a Star Wars fan to some degree :)
But of course there's only a small percentage of those who are diehard fans like us. You can't expect everyone to see AOTC ten times. What bugs me is that there are some casual fans who've only seen it once or not at all! I heard some guy saying that he wanted to see AOTC but he hadn't got around to it yet due to other commitments :huh
I should have said "Dude, get off your ass and see this film! It's got Yoda kicking butt! What more do you want?"
:D

[Jedieb]

Despite falling to 12th place, the July 4th holiday gave AOTC a solid weekday boost. The 32% decline was a solid hold. With moderate weekday drops and low 30% declines we should see $300M by the first or second weekend of August. IMAX numbers would certainly put AOTC over $300M, but I'm not sure how that's going to figure into the total. It wouldn't be considered part of the first run would it?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'm not sure, but it should, we could get another 5 million from IMAX at the most that money could put AOTC over ID4 and ROTJ that would be a best case scenerio.

[JonathanLB]

IMAX would most certaintly be part of the first run. Even with added scenes, it is within the same year, heck within the same half-year, so it would be considered part of the same release. Just as dollar theaters are not considered another release, but a second run.

I would imagine that IMAX would add $5 million over perhaps three months, if it played that long. It would need to play a while to make any sizeable difference.

Still, it could reach $303 to $305 million even without the aid of IMAX, meaning it could still hit $310 million total possibly. I would be amazed if that happened, but it's possible.

[Quadinaros]

I wonder how the IMAX release will affect its run in dollar theaters? You think it will be pulled from all theaters before the IMAX release? If so, the net effect from IMAX could be $0 or even a loss.

[JonathanLB]

I just visited Box Office Mojo. What gives with their Bond Franchise list?!

There are only 19 James Bond movies I thought. Die Another Day is the 20th, even according to the studio. So how come they have 20 already listed? I don't get it...

[Darth23]

HELL YEAH we're gonna make it!!!!

AOTC dropped 35% of its theaters but only dropped 32%!


Imagine how well it would done if it had only lost as many as Spidey.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Somedays I really think the SpiderMan B.O. is rigged.

[JonathanLB]

It's very disappointing to lose that many theaters when the movie is doing better than Spider-Man, which had more theaters to lose, yet lost less anyway. That is just not logical. I want the behind-the-scenes reasons why that happened, but I have a feeling that'd be hard to figure out...

Actually, could have something to do with the distribution of grosses in comparative weekends. Weekend 8 for AOTC may have been a lower percentage of the ticket sales going to theaters than weekend 10 for Spider-Man. That could definitely be possible, but in that case, I think Fox/Lucasfilm should have renegotiated terms to make them more favorable to theater owners who would probably rather have kept AOTC, if it only would give him a higher percentage or something. That is the ONLY reason I can think of for why AOTC lost more theaters. Nothing else is at all logical.

[Darth23]

They don't always work logically, but it's usually true that older movies lose more theaters. Even movies still up on the BO chart.

The only thing I can think of is that Spiderman is getting the benefit of its PAST performance, plus 'everyone' loves Spiderman while 'no one' loved Spiderman - or at lest that's what some media outlets would have us believe.

Theater managers might be comparing AOTC to TPM's performance also, possibly they were expecting it to make MORE than TPM. (Like I was).

[Quadinaros]

It appears being illogical is quite common when theaters make such decisions. I've been so obsessed with the shafting AOTC is getting, I just have to look further up the chart to see a similar situation.

Minority Report lost 272 theaters on Wednesday after playing for just 12 days. Lilo and Stitch after 12 days lost none. And Scooby and Bourne Identity which have played for a week longer, and are making less money, lost 190 and 150 respectively. This is especially disturbing for Scooby which now has the second-highest number of screens, while finishing 7th for the weekend. Not to mention that its estimated per-screen average was just $7 above AOTC. ;)

I guess there's no way for us to really know the details of the contracts that theaters are signing with the studios, but I'm guessing that therin lies the answer.

[JMK]

When you guys find the answer, you'll probably find Jimmy Hoffa too.

I'm with Marcus here, somedays I like to think there's something rigged about Spider Man, but whatever, we'll never know.

[BUFFJEDI]

Somedays I really think the SpiderMan B.O. is rigged. Twice in one day ?? I think hell is freezing over :huh


I won't go into the C word (due to cmj ;) )

But I find it funny NO matter what AOTC does Spiderman stay's right there with it . Check the charts, I think there was ONE time that AOTC blew Spidey away (other than Opening day's) and I'm talking head to head Not 1st week versus 1st week stuff.

It's like this if ATOC makes 3.5 spidey makes 3.0


if Aotc drops to .5 spidey makes .4


but if AOTC goes back up to 4.0 spidey goes back up to 3.5

check out the chart on Mojo you will see what I'm saying .How odd is all that ??? someday Jedi1267 and I will be proven right , somedayo_O

[Jedieb]

I can't believe I even have to address this...

This is a market decision. The market is made up of HUNDREDS of DIFFERENT theaters. Theater #54 isn't calling theater #532 and saying; "Did you remember to follow follow the directions on p.35 of the "How To Shaft AOTC's B.O. Manual"? There are too many INDEPENDENT players involved for this to be any organized conspiracy. There are numerous reasons for theater owners to be dropping AOTC more than Spidey. For all we know Spidey is still bringing in more to owners because they have to give LESS of its grosses back to the studio. Lilo & Stich is a good solid kids movie. You drop MR instead of it because you'll have similiar adult oriented movies coming your way. And the reasons go on and on. All of them more plausible then someone pulling strings and controlling theaters and B.O. receipts from a deep cave in the Smokey Mountains of Geor... oh, oh, I've said too much....

[BUFFJEDI]

Me thinks , Jedieb blew a fuse ;)

ok NOT< NOT NOT to talk about the C word, BUT where do the numbers that the likes of box-mojo gets, where do they come from??

what I'm asking is who tallies the money.who does places like box office mojo get there info from. does each theater report to an agency and that agency tallies the box - office report. and than release it ??

[flagg]

Nope, I believe in the conspiracy :)

[Darth23]

Oh geez, here we go again. :p

Ok. The figures come from the studios, I believe, the studios do their own estimates and they also estimate the grosses for the other big movies playing.

The final numbers are the actual totals as reported by each and every theater to the studios, after the weekend's receipts are totaled up (Monday morning?).

The studios report the info either directly or indirectly to Exhibitor Relations, which is part of, or owned by the Neilsen company.


Once those numbers are reported to the studios and the studios report them publicly, because the studios are publically traded companies, they have a certain duty to their stockholders to not report false numbers (See Enron and Worldcom).

The movie theaters could somehow juggle the figures, but since most of it is tolalled by computer and since lying to the studios would probably be a BIG issue, it's doubtful (imo) that the theaters would do so. Plus there's really not much point in the theaters or the studios lying about the exact totals.


-----------------------

I THINK most of the stuff I've said is accurate.

Remember, your milage may vary. ;)

[Jedieb]

Exhibitot Releations tabulates the figures. How they pull in the money is anybody's guess. You can go to their site and they've got some info on what they do. If there were any conspiracy, I think it would be more a corrupt accounting issue with certain parties trying to hide money. But they'd do it for ALL movies. They wouldn't just target SW and leave out Titanic and Spiderman. Since Exhibitors seems to be independent of the studios and provides a service, I would think it would be harder for numbers to get manipulated.

[Darth23]

Exhibitor Relations gets the figures either from the studios or from the theaters - my guess is the theaters, but I'm not sure.

[BUFFJEDI]

I would think it would be harder for numbers to get manipulated. but you are saying that they COULD be ;) J/K

[CMJ]

LOL...great post Jedieb!

Good to see there are a few sane people who don't believe in consiracy talk. ;)

[JonathanLB]

I do not believe in conspiracy talk. I do believe occassional mistakes are made and that sometimes tickets are added to the wrong movie's tally, but I think it happens in VERY small numbers and roughly equal percentages for any given movie. It's just simple human error. More or less, though, the gross for any given movie is very accurate.

Sometimes, a store will have missing money at the end of the day from the cash register compared to what should be there from sales and whatnot, but it is usually very small. Other times inventory goes missing (employee theft often enough, or customer theft), so that also makes a little difference. Just as those stores have slight discrepancies, theaters also occassionally charge incorrect amounts or sell tickets to the wrong movie from a slip of the finger or whatever else.

Tonight, for instance, I saw AOTC at Evergreen and she somehow charged me $5.50 for the 10:05 showing and my ticket says "MATINEE," which makes no sense because it was clearly NOT a matinee! It was the latest possible nighttime showing. I wonder if she did that just to be nice because she knows I've seen the movie 31 times. She asked me how many this was when I got to the box office. I mean, maybe she just didn't want to charge me full price, but that seems odd because she is not in charge, she cannot make decisions like that technically and could get in trouble for it I think. So probably it was just a screwup. I still can't figure that out. $7.75 is the nighttime price. I was very happy, though :)

[flagg]

I just hope AOTC doesn't lose more screens than Spider-Man again this weekend. We know 300 is a lock, but it'd be nice to get a little above that. We must beat ID4 at the very least :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know I would hate to be one spot behind ID4, not that it was a terrible movie, but I don't know anybody that would say ID4 was a better movie that AOTC.

[JonathanLB]

That certainly would be a great question on an IQ test: "Which was better, AOTC of ID4?" Anyone who answers ID4 obviously likes simplistic entertainment with large explosions better than they like actual narrative and character development.

[flagg]

I just heard on theforce.net that AOTC is losing another 500 theaters this week!
Does anyone know why Fox and Lucasfilm are allowing this to happen? Are they trying to stop the film reaching $300 million for some reason? :) I find it very sad that here we have the best Star Wars film since 1980 and it's been let down by poor marketing and distribution.
:(

[JMK]

It's down to 2 theaters, totalling 2 screens in all of montreal now.
How distressing...

[Marcus Telcontar]

Tell me Spider Man lost a shed load of theatres a well......

I cant believe my wife is about to see that movie for the third time.... sheesh.

[JMK]

Yeah, Spidey has lost a ton too, but still has like double the theaters that AotC has. Meaning 4. Big deal.

[JonathanLB]

It took a dive here in Portland down to maybe 8 screens, haha, but we are still outdoing a lot of the big cities I guess! Sweet :)

Like half of the screens left playing Star Wars are in Portland, lol, j/k.

The bad thing is, I think next week AOTC will lose half again as many screens as it did this weekend in Portland. It's really winding down its run now, so I imagine there will only be a few theaters left in each market playing it for a while longer and then it's down into the dollar theaters.

I have never been a big supporter of Fox's marketing efforts. To be honest, I think they did crappy with TPM and I think they did crappier with AOTC. It's their fault that the movie wasn't far more advertised. They needed a much better strategy. Even TPM should have had more ads reminding people that it was still in theaters. It could have posted potentially even lower declines with the aid of SOME advertising.

This time, Fox let the little hype that was there promote the entire film, which was just about the dumbest thing I've ever seen.

They should be doing everything in their power to make this movie hit $300M, yes, EVEN IF they have to say, "Ok, theaters can keep 90% of the revenue from now on." So what? So Lucasfilm doesn't make that much off the last $8M this film makes in the USA. But the marketing effect alone of saying you had a $300M movie is well worth that sacrifice. Even if you had to let theaters keep everything, you WANT your movie to hit the next century mark. There is just no question about that. Ugg...

[flagg]

Even Windtalkers is still playing on more screens than AOTC! There must be a lot of bad blood between Lucasfilm and theater owners.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Has to be. Like, it's done well and still has a good theatre average, so why drop it for worse performing movies? I dont get it.

I wonder if the DLP theatres are still playing it?

[JonathanLB]

In my area, I think theaters have been really fair. They've kept AOTC and thrown out underperforming movies, so all seems right where I am. I do not think they have exhibited any odd bias or anything. I mean, heck, Spider-Man didn't play even close to as long as AOTC. Spider-Man was gone about 4 weeks ago at Evergreen and it only opened 2 weeks before AOTC. That's not very good.

At Tigard, Spider-Man was playing very recently but Star Wars is still playing yet they only have 11 screens. In fact, they have been MORE than fair with Star Wars. They didn't even take Lilo and Stitch and instead kept AOTC. They have thrown out plenty of other movies that are technically doing better than AOTC.

As long as the per-theater average remains higher than other films above it, though, AOTC will not lose all of its theaters. A few theaters in each market will keep it because they're still getting better business.

I will tell you for a fact that AOTC is kicking Halloween's ass this weekend at my theater. I went to the noon AOTC, which is never the busiest one (the 3:30 is much busier and the 7 is generally busiest, 10 is the worst), and there were about 35 people there. At Halloween, there were 8 people -- count 'em! EIGHT. On opening day. That is not good. I would not be surprised if that movie bombs, but it'll beat AOTC this weekend, duh, because it has way more theaters.

[Jedieb]

Friday's estimates and the weekday numbers have come in. AOTC had about a 50% drop for its weekday grosses. That's its steepest fall in quite some time. I guess it was hard for it to keep pace with the boost it got for the 4th of July. The loss of screens could really hurt this weekend. If AOTC gets hit with a 50% decline then it looks like it's going to take an IMAX release to hit $300M. It can still crawl past the mark with a 40% drop, but 50% would just be murder.

[Jedi Master Carr]

where did you see AOTC's numbers for Friday? Box Office Mojo only had the top 10 and that was it. I still am confident it will make it, I think it will make between 300-303 without an IMAX release, I am hoping if there is an IMAX release that will push it above at least ID4.

[Jedieb]

The weekday numbers I'm referring to are Mon.-Thurs. I haven't seen anything for Friday. This weekend is going to be tough because we've lost so many theaters. I just don't know if it has enough theaters to pull in the numbers.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Probably not now. I had a look at the theatre counts, and they really make you question the sanity of theatre owners. Some movie just should be playing on more, others should be dropped big time.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Oh I guess I miss understood you, actually I think it only dropped like 40% for Monday and Tuesday I think it dropped higher the other days because of the 4th so it was to be expected, as far as this weekend I was hoping for 1.5 milion, it could do it I suppose, I think it will make at least a million which should get it past the Sixth Sense for 13th place domestically which is good. I was hoping for 1.5 because that would put it at 294, making it 6 million closer which I think it will do by the end of August, hopefully.
On another note, in Japan, the early numbers are having it beating HP's opening weekend record, now that would be awesome they are also saying they are thinking it will make 140 million in Japan, if it can do that it will make 400 million overseas putting it over 700 million WW which would just be awesome.

[JonathanLB]

I love Japan. Those people have taste :) They know good movies when they see them, like A.I. doing well over there but not as well in the U.S. and TPM did great in Japan, now hopefully AOTC does great, seems like it will.

I don't think people are taking into account that once AOTC hits the dollar theaters, and it is in ZERO right now, then it'll not only get a boost but not decline much again after that until it finally leaves dollar theaters. LOTR is still playing at my local dollar theater and has been for ages. It only has 2 showings per day, but still it is playing.

Once a movie hits dollar theaters it doesn't go from like $500,000 a weekend to $250,000. It goes from like $500,000 to $460,000 to $425,000, etc. It's a slower decent because it makes less per weekend anyway.

[flagg]

According to Box Office Mojo, AOTC made $1.3 million for the weekend, a drop of 48%. I suppose that's not too bad considering how many theaters it lost. I just hope it holds on to more screens next week. Its per screen average is higher than Scooby Doo, Sum of all Fears, Powerpuff Girls and Ya Ya Sisterhood at the moment.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It will be in dollar theaters eventually so it should level out and not loose too many theaters eventunally. Does anybody know what Spiderman made? The last movie listed in the top 20 is Windtalkers at 17 at 1.1 million did Spiderman make less than that? Heck Mojo didn't even have Spiderman with any theaters according to Thursday did it lose 1500 theaters or did Mojo just not know what it had?

[Jedieb]

I didn't see Spiderman's grosses anywhere either. It must have been omited for some reasons because they had movies like About A Boy with just $192,000.

With a 48% drop and a gross of just under $1.3 $300M still looks tough to reach without an IMAX release. Even with only 30% declines the rest of the way we wouldn't see $300M with a release that stretched into the end of the year. The theater count it just too low. It looks like TPM got to dollar theaters sometime around Sept. 3 and pulled in another $11M. The problem for AOTC is that it's losing theaters MUCH faster than TPM. Theater owners held on to TPM longer because the money was still coming in. In its 9th weekend TPM still had 1,850 theaters compated to AOTC's 632. So I don't think we can count on nearly as big a dollar theater boost as TPM had. This was probably our last weekend with a million dollar gross. If we do manage to make it to $300M it'll take either a major ad campaign or the IMAX numbers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think we will still make it without IMAX I say it makes it in Late August and Imax will probably add at least 5-10 million which should get AOTC past ROTJ at least (I say this because Beauty and the Beast made 25 million off Imax so AOTC should be good for at least 5)

As far as Spiderman I wonder Mojo doesn't even have the theater counts for it, could just be in dollar theaters because I can't find a theater near me that is playing it, AOTC is playing in one theater near me and thats it.

[Jedieb]

I couldn't find any Spiderman numbers at www.the-numbers either. Could it have been pulled?

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is what I am wondering, it could be in dollar theaters and those numbers might not show up on estamates, if thats the case than I think it safe to say that Spiderman will never pass AOTC.

[JonathanLB]

I just don't think people take into account the dollar theater grosses enough. That is like a 2nd release in essence. A movie just doesn't go -30%, -30%, -30%, that's not how it works at the end of the run!

It goes like this:

-15%
+50%
-10%
-19%
-15%

etc...

The 50% is like when it hits a bunch of dollar theaters. The lower declines are not a huge deal either because we're talking about upper hundreds of thousands, not millions.

AOTC should not have any problems clearing $300M without any IMAX release.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will make it too, I am hoping though that the IMAX release pushes it pass ROTJ and it makes 310 I would be really happy if it does that.

[JonathanLB]

I wish man, I wish...

Well I've continually re-thought my final estimate for Spider-Man too.

I mean, a few weeks back, like I guess 3 to 4 weeks ago, I thought $420M was a lock and I was a bit worried about TPM at $431.1. Then it was like, "Well more like $415M." Then it was like, "Well $410 is sure..." and now I'm like, "Hmm, maybe $407 or $408M."

[Jedi Master Carr]

I was thinking it would make 410 and still could it will really depend on what happened this weekend, if it lost most of its theaters or just about all of them then it probably won't even though it will be in budget theaters for a couple of months it won't make no 10 million there. I think Sony was happy it made 400 and realizes it has no chance at catching TPM so its starting to get ready for the DVD.

[Jedieb]

People should do the math. Even with TPM's dollar theater averages, AOTC would fall short of $300M. It's going to hit the dollar theaters with less momentum that TPM. AOTC already has fewer theaters and lower grosses, so you can expect a lower dollar theater run as well. Remember, TPM only pulled in $11M with both dollar theaters and it's small December re-release. Take away that December re-release and the that gross would barely get AOTC to $300M. Box Office wise, AOTC has fallen short of TPM in just about every category, I expect the dollar theater grosses to be the same. Sorry. :(

The 50% hike Jon listed better happen in the next couple of weeks. If it doesn't, then not even those percentages would get AOTC to $300M.

I'm miffed about Spiderman. It was still a top 20 film. I think it's pretty unsual to see it get pulled like this. Maybe the studio is planning on a small re-release later on this year?

[Marcus Telcontar]

They definantly pulled Spider-Man?

[Jedieb]

No, Spidey wasn't pulled after all. Here are the numbers;
13 Spider-Man
$890,372 -60%
574 theaters
-928 theaters
$401,991,818

It came in right behind AOTC.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Box office Mojo keeps saying that it will make it and I believe them they know the box office better than anybody else in my opinion, it only needs a little more than 6 million I can't see it not reaching it really, and I don't think it will reach dollar theaters for another two weeks by then it will need 4-5 million and it should do that it dollar theaters easily that would be half of what TPM did in dollar theaters. Also another thing to concider dollar theaters are no longer a dollar, the once closest to me is 2.50 and I expect that to be the average, so it should make. Maybe I am just an optimist but that is the way I feel, regardless it should do it with the Imax release for sure that should get it at least 5 million maybe 10, hey since Beauty and the Beast made 25 a few years ago it could even duplicate that, but that is really hard to say at this point. With Spiderman's drop I think now it is unlikely to pass AOTC anytime in the near future, I think it will come close to 410, probably 406 or 407.

[JMK]

Yeah, 300M is getting closer, but its just that - close. It isn't there yet, and I'll relax when it does get there. :)

[flagg]

Take that Spider-Man! :)

Sorry, I liked the film, but it should have lost those screens long before now. I don't see how AOTC should have a problem reaching $300 million now. Even films like Planet of the Apes make at least $3 million from discount theaters. AOTC should do a lot more than that, and it hasn't finished its first run yet.

[Jedieb]

Here's something to think about. If thread had been posted in April the flames would have spewed in all directions. It could even have been called "We're not going to make it to $400M" and some would have thought the poster insane. Kind of shocking how this whole run has turned out huh?

[JMK]

Sure is Jedieb. 300M is a truckload of money, but if anyone in April had suggested that AotC would crawl and sputter its way to 300M, we would have banned the "fool". This run has been surprising to say the least.

[Marcus Telcontar]

How true..... no-one could have forcast less than $300 million - I never saw much beyond 400 million as possible, but I was sure it would go beyond 350 million.

Didnt really have good legs, did it?

[JMK]

I wouldn't say bad legs, as 300M is still more than 95% of movies ever made. It just didn't have the legs of TPM, which it was inevitably supposed to squash.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Most movies dont open with 83 odd million either

[JMK]

Lost World had bad legs. AotC had decent legs.

[Marcus Telcontar]

It would have what I would call average legs. Making 4 times opening is decent. 3 times opening is what should be expected. Given to opening, the staying power of AOTC could well be called disappointing, even if it was in fact failry average

[JMK]

Decent, average, same thing...;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well we have gone over the reason several time why it made less, personally I think the #1 reason why is lack of kids. People saw TPM as a family film and brought their children and may even went several times, this time the darker tone hurt because less families went and defently didn't go more than once. I think that is the big difference and why we should expect something similar for Ep 3 maybe it will make a little more 310-350 range maybe but 400 is out of the question.

[JonathanLB]

Movies that open above $70 million are kind of making me redefine my normal scale of excellent, very good, good, average, below average, and poor staying power. It's kind of different because I don't want to say that Spider-Man had below average staying power! I mean, if it had what I would consider "good" staying power it would have made $575 million and been nearly on top of Titanic, so that's not really fair.

Any movie that opens above $70 million is exempt from my normal scale, as is any movie that opens below $10 million. It's too easy for a film that opens at $5 million to have "incredible" staying power given that basically nobody saw it opening weekend, lol.

By my definition, AOTC has had decent/average staying power, so I would concur with you guys. I'd say the latter stages of the run it has shown impressive, good staying power. That does not make a large difference, though, at this point, so I'm not trying to say "ooo wow, look at that, it dropped only 20%, err, but made $500,000," lol.

My calculations would have AOTC making about 26 to 27% of its total from opening weekend, which on my scale would be "slightly below average," for a movie that opened with $40M, but AOTC opened with $80M and as I said, that's higher than you can use on my scale, which is imperfect, but effective 95% of the time. In both cases, Spider-Man and AOTC, you gotta just use a different scale.

I mean, I would say that actually despite us saying "decent," "average" staying power, the movie has actually enjoyed good staying power. If you think about it this way, anyway... At theaters in my area, right now, as in today (Thursday), AOTC is still playing, yet some theaters already dropped Scooby Doo, long ago dropped Ya-Ya Sisterhood, dropped Insomnia ages ago (despite opening after AOTC), dropped The Sum of All Fears, dropped Bad Company long ago, Powerpuff girls is on half-screens in many places (2 showings a day vs. 4), Hey Arnold is already gone, etc. So given all of those movies that opened after Star Wars, at least AOTC has been around a while. Playing 9 weeks at Evergreen in an extremely crowded marketplace is NOT bad, no matter what. Juwanna Mann never played at all and most other recent movies enjoyed 4-5 week runs, and if they were lucky, 6 or maybe even 7, like Spider-Man. But what movie stayed longer at Evergreen? Star Wars. What movie made more? Star Wars. So Spider-Man didn't win everywhere. I can guarantee Spider-Man did not make as much as Star Wars at Evergreen. I go to that theater almost daily and it was a huge deal (got three screens), but Star Wars-like? Absolutely not. Now at Movies on TV, I think Spider-Man killed Star Wars, and at most other theaters, but not at Broadway downtown, which played AOTC 8 weeks and it has only 4 screens. Spider-Man got about a 4 week run. *shrug*

$300M, you guys still think we are going to do this? I really don't know... I mean I guess so when all is said and done, but man, after Movies on TV announced they are not playing AOTC this Friday and they have 16 screens, I was just bummed. I think AOTC is going to lose a buttload more theaters this weekend. At least in Portland it is losing about half or more of its theaters :(

[Jedieb]

I would say AOTC's legs were pretty decent. On par with HP's, but not as good as FOTR's. One thing is for certain, it had the weakest legs of all the SW movies. Especially in comparison to ANH and ESB. Both those films opened in limited amounts of theaters and raked up inflation adjusted grosses of over $400M. ROTJ opened with a large number of theaters, but it's theater count is around half of what major blockbusters open with today. ROTJ had incredible legs though. Off the top of my head I'd have to say it was at least comparable to what TPM had if not better. The movie ran continuously until March of the following year.

Even Jon is bummed about $300M, WTF? If we knew what kind of dollar theater run we were going to see we could end the suspense. Shouldn't Spidey be heading into dollar theaters soon? That could give us a preview of the kind of boost we're going to get. I'm just surprised Spiderman hasn't hit those theaters yet.

[JonathanLB]

Spider-Man is not playing at any local dollar theaters, not yet anyway.

AOTC has 3 theaters in my area, effective Friday (7 now I think). One of them, though, is actually up in Vancouver, Washington, which is where a lot of people actually live and commute to Portland, but point is, there really are only 2 theaters in the Portland area that are showing AOTC after Thursday of this week.

HP had inferior staying power to AOTC. $90M opening and couldn't even hit $320M. Not that much worse than AOTC, but still.

[Jedieb]

I was going to say AOTC's staying power was better than HP, but from the top of my head I knew the grosses weren't that far apart, so I just went with "on par." FOTR clearly had the best legs of the three.

mojo just said that they're no longer tracking Spidey on a daily basis. So how will the numbers be reported then, once a week? It's still a top 20 movie so you've got to figure daily numbers are being counted somewhere. Does this mean there won't be updates for AOTC in 2 weeks?

[flagg]

AOTC had good legs compared to most blockbusters (The Mummy Returns, Jurassic Park 2 & 3, POTA, etc.) but disappointing for a Star Wars film. It was really weeks 2 and 3 that killed its chances at meeting my prediction ($360 million). AOTC should have made about $80 million again over the four day Memorial Weekend, and should only have dropped 50% the third week. But the competition from Spidey and SOAF really made it drop quicker, I think.
I still stand by my $500 million prediction for Episode III, though :)

[JonathanLB]

"FOTR clearly had the best legs of the three."

LOL, yeah. You think? This movie is still playing at my local dollar theater, amazingly enough. It's still playing at several dollar theaters, pubs w/screens, community theaters, etc. A friend of mine, Joe (who has seen AOTC 3 times), saw his 5th LOTR viewing just two days ago at this dollar theater. That is pretty remarkable! Then again, same happened with TPM, although it was even a bit more extreme. I mean, when you go see a movie (TPM) in January 2000 and it came out in May 1999, you get a lot of strange reactions when people ask, "What did you see?" and you say, "Star Wars." LOL. "WHAT?! That came out like a year ago?!" You're like, "Well, only 8 months actually." lol

Yeah, 2nd weekend just killed AOTC. It was way below what I thought it would be. It should have done just as TPM did and made exactly as much during its second weekend, four days, as it did during the first, three days. $80M, not $60M. Ugg, that really hurt badly.

[CMJ]

Here in Hollywood FOTR is still playing at a REGULAR theatre....I'm in utter shock it hasn't gone discounted yet.

They just today went to one showing a day, but before that it had like four.

Suffice it to say, I'm impressed. ;)

[imported_QuiGonJ]

The good news is that theater is still also playing AOTC in digital. $11 a ticket mind you, for good seating and real ushers, but that's to the good for dollar counts I think. :)

[Darth23]

Looks like Star Wars left the final Tallahassee theater today.

And to think that I ALMOST went to see it on Wednesday. :(

The closest theaters still playing it look like Jacksonville.

I might road trip out there if its still playing next weekend. Just for old times sake.

Spiderman is gone too - just too damn many new movies coming out.

[Doc Milo]

By me, Attack of the Clones is still playing on one screen in the UA Farmingdale theater -- this is the theater with a Digital Projection screen. I don't know if the one screen it is playing on is digital. If it's still playing next week, I may go -- if I can get away for a few hours.

Spiderman is playing in National Amusements Farmingdale on one screen. From what I can tell, these are the only screens in my area playing each of these movies.

On a side note: I have yet to see Spiderman.

[flagg]

AOTC is only losing 70 theaters this weekend.

That's . . . good news :)

[Sanis Prent]

My theater's been showing a full theater for AotC. The trend *should* hold up today, but I don't know for sure.

[JonathanLB]

It lost a lot of theaters in Portland, then, that's too bad. It's GREAT it lost only 70 nationwide. :)

We lost about half of ours here in Portland, but it also entered one second-run theater already.

Spider-Man is now playing at Valley, a second run theater in the area. So AOTC is probably not too far behind it.

I *think* Evergreen is playing AOTC, but this is super weird... I saw it marked last night and talked to an employee who said it wasn't going to leave, but the newspaper printed an ad for AOTC without Evergreen mentioned and the listings on Fandango AND in the paper do not show AOTC playing there. Tonight, though, I will confirm that it is indeed playing. They are all just wrong. Evergreen changed their minds at the end of the week and didn't throw AOTC out, at least that is what I was told last night, and given that I know for a fact that K-19 and Stuart Little 2 were already marked in separate auditoriums, I don't think AOTC left or was moved.

[JMK]

AotC is playing here on 2 english screens and 4 french, while, inexplicably, Spider Man is also on 2 english screens and 7 french. I don't get it. :x

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it has now made it to 294.6, it made about 780,000 thousand for the week that is pretty good if you ask me, that is less than a 40% drop so if it does that for the weekend maybe 35% it would give it between 900,000 to 1 million pushing it to at least 295.5, so it would need 4.5 million from dollar theaters I think it can do that.

[JonathanLB]

Well, I was wrong apparently.

Evergreen doesn't have AOTC, so umm... somehow they switched things around and that one guy had no idea what he was talking about.

No worries, I will just go to Tigard 11 for my AOTC needs for now. But that means, sure enough, I enjoyed the last showing of AOTC last night. I felt like it was the last showing. I was pretty sure it would be, so I treated it just like it was.

I stayed all the way through the credits and I was the last person there, waiting until, for the last time, the house lights rose and another chapter of the Star Wars Saga closed its run at Evergreen. It was kind of sad I thought, being there the first day and all, I remember the spectacular lines for two midnight showings and my 24 hour lineup, then being the very last man standing in the final showing of the movie on the final day of its release there. Well, bring on Episode III! AOTC, you will be missed at Evergreen. :|

[Rmiao]

it's still at the two 30 screen giants near me, the 17 screen theater which is only 3 miles from me, and another 14 screen theater. and it's got all the screens for the whole day :)

[JonathanLB]

Nice, Richard.

I just have to drive to Tigard to see it, which is like 25 minutes out, maybe 27 minutes, somewhere just past 25. :) It all depends on how fast I drive and how bad the traffic is, hehe.

[Jedieb]

The Mon.-Thurs. numbers were better than the week before. AOTC will only lose 70 theaters this weekend. But the numbers are so low now that unless we see a dollar theater BOOST in the next couple of weeks we're not getting there. Even with 30% weekend declines and 35% weekday declines we wouldn't see $300M until Jan.! We need the dollar theater boost to happen in the next couple of weeks. Coincidently, I saw Spidey playing at one of my local dollar theaters. I wonder what that'll do its grosses. I guess it'll take awhile for those numbers to come in because they're from dollar theaters.

[Jedieb]

Estimates say only a 12% drop. If these numbers held steady we'd see $300M before the end of August. Again, we need to see a boost from dollar theaters soon. I'm afraid one big drop in theaters could nix $300M. Still this hold was pretty good. I wonder what Spidey's dollar theater numbers were? That'll give us a preview.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know those are great numbers and I am really confident now that it will make it, it should make another 1.5 from Monday to next sunday pushing it to over 297 after that it will probably go into Dollar theaters but I think it will get at least 3 million, I was thinking 4-6 but that is just a guess.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I think AOTC is safe for 300 million - just.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am guessing it will make it to 301-303 by Labor Day now if there is an IMax rerelease I think it will add another 5 million at least probably passing ID4 and maybe ROTJ it could get as high as 310, with that, but nobody knows if it will happen.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I really doubt it will get 310. Is there that much interest to get another 13 odd million?

[JMK]

If the 3-D Imax thing does happen and word spreads that its simply amazing, then yeah, I think 310 would be possible.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think so too, because Beauty and the Beast was on IMAX last year and got 25 and I think Star Wars could pick up about half that. Of course the IMAX think will have to happen for it to make it to 310.

[Taataani Meorrrei]

Its still on a full run at Summit 16 :)

[Darth23]

Another 1.125 million this weekend. :D

Total gross - $295,725,000 - down just 12% from last week. It's amazing what happens when it gets a chance to hang on to some screens.

It will probably be at like 297 million next weekend, so 300 million is almost a definite.

I nice long discount theater run and a big Imax total and a winter re-release woudl be cool.

I just want to see AOTC beat Harry Potter.

:)

[JMK]

Beating the boy-wizard would be fantastic. Especially for a "disappointment".

[Jedieb]

It would be nice, but I don't see how it could possibly catch HP, even with the IMAX re-release. That $25M for Beauty and the Beast was helped a great deal by the fact it was the first time the movie had been in theaters in close to a decade. If FOTR couldn't do it, then AOTC certainly won't.

I think $300M is safe as long as we don't lose too many theaters this next week and the dollar theaters kick in. The IMAX numbers will be interesting. How are they going to classify them? Will it be another release?

[JMK]

FOTR had an IMAX release????o_O

[Darth23]

ET came back to the theaters for the first time i nover a decade... that didn't help IT too much.

I think the draw of a Star Wars movie on a huge Imax screen would be pretty big. I'm not sure what ticket prices are like though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think they are 6.50, I read that somewhere not sure if that is every IMAX theater for certain though. I don't think it will pass HP either, I think 310 is possible though, if it makes 297 by next Sunday and they it hits dollar theaters on August 2nd then I think it can make 4-6 million from Dollar theaters (this goes from that date until when they stop showing it), that would give between 301-303 then there is IMAX, I think it could make between 5-10 million. 10, is the max I think it could make, but 5 is more likely if it could do 7 it might make it to 310, it could pass the Lion King but that would be difficult it would have ot make 10 million from IMAX to do it. Now if there is another rerelease I guess its possible that it could beat HP but I don't forsee one anytime soon.

[Marcus Telcontar]

FOTR had IMAX release? Que?

How many IMAX theatres are there, and how big are there?

[JonathanLB]

Hey, I'm totally stoked, I am almost 100% sure I am going to drive up to Seattle Friday to see AOTC in digital at the Cinerama! I didn't realize it was still playing there, whoops, but it is, at least for a little while, and I really want to get that chance before I never can see it like that again. So I think I'm going to drive up with a friend and we'll see like a 4 p.m. showing. Supposedly there is a meeting of the Star Wars Society in Seattle at the Cinerama on Friday, so maybe I can hook up with them too.

I am a member of Fan Force Portland, which is now just one meeting away from being an official Fan Force chapter with recognition from FanForce.net and whatnot. I'm really hoping that I have the chance to become the official city representative. We'll see, but if they would have me, I'd do it. Plus, I know I can attend every meeting, unlike a lot of people who are just going to be too busy (which is very understandable).

[Jedieb]

I meant that if FOTR couldn't beat HP then I didn't think AOTC would either. FOTR had the best legs of the three of them. As for the IMAX, I just don't think that it'll come anywhere close to B&B's $25M. What did TPM's December release do? Under $3M right? I think an IMAX release this year would bring in between $5M-$10M.

[JonathanLB]

Jedieb is right.

I think if the IMAX release added $5 million that would be a very sizeable success...

I suppose, maybe, the possibility exists it could do $10 million if it stayed in IMAX theaters for 12 weeks or so, lol, honestly it would need to be super long and I see it more as being something that plays for like 4 weeks max. But that's a shot in the dark. I don't have any facts or even rumors to back that up, but I just don't see AOTC playing a long time in IMAX theaters.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Unfortunately we don't know nothing yet, and until they make an anouncement we won't know, I think it will do at least 5 which would be great and could push it past ID4 for 12th on the all time list, I would like to see it pass ROTJ but I am not sure if it will happen, it will depend on how long it plays, it could play for 2 1/2 months or less (I am considering when it might come out on DVD in November). But I really don't know about that kind of stuff.

[JMK]

I guess we shouldn't make any IMAX predicitions until an announcement is actually made huh? :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree we probably should wait, regardless though I think it will make between 301-303 without IMAX and those are very good numbers.

[flagg]

They played all five Star Wars movies on the IMAX screen in London a couple of months ago. Unfortunately, I missed it. :(

[Jedi Master Carr]

AOTC made 800 thousand this weekend, for a 22% drop that is pretty good, and it passed Scooby Poop :cool. It is now at 297 million only 3 million away from 300 its looking good for it to make it.

[Darth23]

A 22% drop is always EXCELLENT for any movie. :D

Too bad it couldn't so this in week 2 or 3. Only now, and the end, does it show some legs.

[flagg]

According to estimates, AOTC made $600,000 this weekend, which means it finally jumped ahead of the pace of Spidey, which only made $400,000 in its 12th week.
Good job :)

[JonathanLB]

I never thought it would pass Spider-Man's pace at all. That's pretty impressive.

Unfortunately, Spider-Man jumped the gun on ALL of the other movies, from Star Wars to MIB2 to Minority Report to AP3. It wasn't a matter of Spider-Man being the most well liked movie this year. It wasn't. Not even close. People enjoyed it, but many more people liked Star Wars, MR, and Road to Perdition, among people who actually saw those movies. But Spider-Man had a GREAT marketing campaign and a great release frame.

Star Wars didn't matter to Spider-Man because it was history at that point. Look at its gross by the time AOTC actually hit theaters. I mean, forget about it, Star Wars had no chance to slow Spidey down. It hads already taken in well more than $200 million, somewhere around $250M before Star Wars even opened. That's where it made all of its money, because there was not a single day nor will there EVER be a single day where Spider-Man has beat Star Wars. In head to head competition, Star Wars never lost to Spider-Man. Then again, SW didn't have the advantage of such a soft release frame. There was nothing else out to see. It got the best weekend of any film this year.

Competition is looking really stiff this holiday season too... I'm already seeing a ton of ads for movies I really want to see. The Core, Die Another Day, Solaris, LOTR: TTT, The Tuxedo, and Treasure Planet all come to mind... and there will be more.

[Jedieb]

I think that's a bit of wishful thinking to say AOTC beat Spidey in ANY sense of the word. Clearly, the B.O. champ of the year was Spidey, not AOTC. Saying that AOTC beat Spidey head to head is just way off. Spidey had a bigger opening and stronger holds, period. It doesn't make a difference to me in how much I enjoyed AOTC, but I don't see how AOTC can claim any SIGNIFICANT B.O. victory over Spidey this year. It wasn't close.

Bottom Line:
Spidey $404M
AOTC $300M

And when you consider that ALL of our predictions at the beginning of the year would have those numbers REVERSED then Spidey's B.O. victory is that much more impressive. Hell, none of us except maybe Dutchy even had AOTC grossing as low as $404. We lost the B.O. battle this year, No big dea though.

[Dogsmack]

"It wasn't a matter of Spider-Man being the most well liked movie this year. It wasn't. Not even close. People enjoyed it, but many more people liked Star Wars, MR, and Road to Perdition, among people who actually saw those movies."


Hey Jonathan, can I have some of that stuff your smoking?:D :D


You actually believe people loved AOTC more than SM?? The box office says otherwise.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is debatable, I think Spiderman was the it movie of the summer much like ID4 was the It movie of the summer of 97, now the question is will Spiderman will be seen like ID4 now, nothing more than a popcorn film that was fun back in then, is the question, I now a lot of people who liked Aotc better than Spiderman, not sure about the general public it had the same cinescore so who knows really. As I said it was the appeal that drew people in, I think we will have to see what the sequel will do to see how popular it really is, I am thinking SM2 will make less than 300 that is just my gut feeling right now.

[JonathanLB]

I have never heard of anyone who likes Spider-Man more than Star Wars, so what are YOU smoking?!

"You actually believe people loved AOTC more than SM?? The box office says otherwise."

No, it does not. The box office says AOTC had better staying power than Spider-Man, and it did. Do the math. Spider-Man made 3.52 times as much as its opening weekend. AOTC made 3.75 times as much. That is just better staying power, plain and simple.

AOTC is considered the 2nd best Star Wars movie behind ESB. Every Star Wars movie is more popular than Spider-Man.

By your idiotic logic, The Phantom Menace was a more well liked film than AOTC! LOL, put the bong down and throw the six pack away, join us here back in the real world. There is hardly anyone on Earth, critics included, who actually thinks TPM is a better movie than AOTC. I love TPM and I would defend it to anyone, but even I ranked AOTC just slightly ahead. Yet it made less money.

Anyone who follows the box office knows that the gross has almost nothing to do with quality. Road to Perdition is a far better film than Men in Black 2 or Austin Powers 3, but guess what? It won't make as much money. That doesn't mean anything, though. That only means more people said, "One (or two or three) for Austin Powers 3" than people said "One for Road to Perdition." That is it.

I stick with what I said earlier. Star Wars beat Spider-Man head-to-head every single day of release. There was not one day where Spider-Man made more money than Star Wars. Now of course, Spider-Man had been out two weeks, but it never passed Star Wars. It's obvious that SW had better staying power by that fact alone and if you look at the relative 12th weekend numbers, you also see that in that weekend AOTC made more than Spider-Man, so what I said before about staying power is absolutely correct. It's not debatable. Spider-Man had great staying power *for* a movie of that magnitude, but nevertheless not as good as AOTC. Close, but no cigar.

I do agree that obviously the bottom line has Spider-Man winning by far. It definitely is the champion of this summer and probably this entire year (unless we get some weird fluke, because I doubt TTT will make much more than FOTR). But saying that just because Spider-Man made more money it is instantly more popular than Star Wars, now that's just absurd. Star Wars is and always will be more popular than Spider-Man.

[Dogsmack]

"I have never heard of anyone who likes Spider-Man more than Star Wars, so what are YOU smoking?! "


You probably been asking Star Wars fanatics like yourself. Why not try asking general movie audiences. You will find that most of them liked SM more than AOTC. I saw AOTC once in the theater and never went back. On the other hand I know six people who saw SM 3 times. SM benefited greatly from REPEAT viewings and the box office reflects that. SM is indeed a popcorn flick but so is Star Wars. There is nothing deep or serious about both films. They were made for viewing enjoyment. Star Wars as a franchise may be more popular but it's quality (especially with the last two films) has taken a dive.

[ReaperFett]

Okay Dogsmack, my little public cencus.


We shall count me, my Uni mate and 5 of his friends he goes to the cinema with while at home.

Number of Star Wars fans = Me

Total number of SW viewings = 16+. I saw it thrice, mate saw it thrice, with the 5 in two of those instances

Total number of SM viewings = 7. One each

General Concensus of SW = Great

General Consensus of SM = Quite good


My research's findings = SW was more popular


Why did it make more? Less competition, Not a sequel, No negative press (IE, TPM). All valid reasons

[Jedieb]

This isn't the place to see whether or not more people liked Spidey or AOTC. The place was in theaters around the country. In those theaters, Spidey CLEARLY won. I heard plenty of people talking in theater lobbies about how much more they liked Spidey than AOTC. Spidey did better with girls and maybe even young kids. Like Dogsmack, I heard plenty of people who liked Spidey better than AOTC. Everyone from obnoxious local DJ's, people talking in theater lobbies, kids at school, and even people in my OWN house. Remember, people have been looking forward to Spidey since the James Cameron rumors in the 80's. Spidey had a lot of hype and expectation going for it. AOTC didn't have the newness or the high expectation level of its recent predecessor. TPM had 16 years of anticipation going for it. That and a variety of other reasons are why its B.O. was stronger than Spidey's. That's a B.O. battle that TPM clearly won. I'd argue that point with anyone, but this summer was a B.O. battle that was clearly lost by a SW movie. I loved AOTC, but I'm not going to kid myself when the numbers are staring me in the face. AOTC had the lowest first run of ANY SW movie, it ended up ranking lower on all time B.O. lists than any other previous SW movie.

All that I care about is that I saw a SW movie that I loved. But I'm not going to let that cloud me into thinking everyone else feels the same. Fact, Spidey outdistanced AOTC by more than $100M. Spidey had STRONGER holds and it accomplished that with more screens. It was just a great run. Not as good as TPM or any of the previous SW movies, but better than AOTC. There's NO WAY to spin that into a "we really won!!!!!" scenario. This was COMPLETELY unexpected. It's a given that none of us would have predicted this, but I doubt 99% of the movie going public thought this could happen either until Spidey's opening weekend.

Hell, we may not even win the international battle either. AOTC still has a way to go, but it's Japan numbers don't look like they're going to challenge HP, which is what many were counting on for it to top Spidey WW. It should make up some of the domestic difference, but it may not make up all of it. Strictly from a B.O. perspective, we were UPSET and in a big way. Not only did we get beaten by over $100M by a film we expected to handle easily, but we failed to pass the two previous blockbusters of the fall season; HP and FOTR. MORE PEOPLE SAW SPIDEY, end of story. And you know what's funny? If I remember right, somebody around here saw Spidey twice the weekend it premiered. And that SW fan was smack dab in the middle of SW Celebration II in Indy. If Spidey could have drawn in a rabid SW fan like that to see it twice in its opening weekend, then imagine what it did to the casual movie fan? ;)

A note about the undebatable staying power issue. In their first 10 weeks, Spidey had better declines than AOTC by a margin of 5 to 4. (Of course there's no declines for the opening weekend.) After its 10th week, Spidey lost more than 900 screens and was basically done, and so was the damage. The percentage victories AOTC is now raking up are small change in relation to the final numbers. When you consider that Spidey had more screens, and a higher opening gross to hold on to, that a clear victory. I don't think a 3.52 to 3.75 margin is anything to throw a party about. Especially when the movie with 3.52 opened with over $34 more than it's competitor. You know what that translates to? The 3.52 movie winning by more than $100M.

Again, I loved AOTC. I liked it more than Spidey, but it got beat at the B.O. PLAIN AND SIMPLE.

[ReaperFett]

The place was in theaters around the country. In those theaters, Spidey CLEARLY won. I heard plenty of people talking in theater lobbies about how much more they liked Spidey than AOTC
Go on, ignore my post :)

[Jedieb]

Who says I was ONLY talking to you?:cool

[Jedi Master Carr]

well my theory is that Spiderman was the it movie of 2002 the question is will it still be consider a good movie 5 years from now or even 2 years from now. ID4 was the it movie of 96 and everybody loved it the same thing DJs bragged about it, the general public thought it was a great movie, well 6 years later, everybody bashes it and says it was a POC, will Spiderman fall like that? It could who knows. Really everything is just an opinion, I know a lot of people who thought AOTC was better than Spiderman, and I know people who thought that Spiderman was better and I know people who liked them the same and I am guessing that its like that around the country.

[ReaperFett]

Anyway, we go on money made? In that case, more like Titanic than EP2, Spiderman or LOTR :)

[flagg]

Spider-Man won by hype, plain and simple. Both AOTC and Spidey got the same scores from exit poll audiences, and both got a lot of repeat business from fans. Spidey just had a huge headstart. In, the U.K. where Spidey had less hype, AOTC beat it by a significant margin.
Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed both films, but the idea that Spidey was beloved by all and AOTC was only loved by diehard fans is a media myth.

[Jedieb]

I wouldn't say that AOTC was loved only by die-hards. But the winner of the B.O. battle is pretty clear. Who knows how Spidey will fare years from now. But when 2006 rolls around, SW won't exactly be on the tip of everyone's toungue you know. Unlike the quite years of the mid to late 80's and early 90's, they'll be some EU to keep SW chugging, but the movies will be done. We've probably got at least 2, maybe 3 Spidey sequels. Plus a plethora of other comic book movies and other big event pictures. I think the movies will age well, but there not going to be at the forefront anymore. What's going to put them there, SW EU novel #93?

Spidey had a better B.O. run, that's all. That opening weekend was amazing, and the holds it managed after that pretty impressive. I know which one I liked better and which one I saw multiple times, but more people saw Spidey in the U.S., period. It won. Maybe if AOTC had been released first it would have made a difference, maybe not. But the point is, I don't think ANY release date could have generated the kinds of number MOST of us expected. We were off by HUNDREDS of millions of dollars on BOTH movies. We were SUPPOSE to have won this race easily, and we didn't. We laughed at SONY execs who said Spidey was going to win. Look at where we ended up.

[JMK]

I don't know what all the argument is about. It's not like the 2 movies were even close. If anyone thinks that 100M is "close", then I'll be playing major league baseball tomorrow.
Even after having a head start (aside from AotC's opening), Spider Man held its own and was never "annihilated" by ANYONE let alone Star Wars.
Like Jedieb said, I know which movie I saw multiple times, and which movie I preffered, but obviously many many people felt differently, as evidenced by the final numbers.
Who cares if AotC had a 3.75 to 3.52 staying power victory. It doesn't matter one little bit. Spider Man was off to the races from day one and it outdistanced everyone. Period.

[Darth23]

Yeah, Spidey kicked our butt.

It coudln't beat TPM though.

:D :D :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

Personally I wouldn't even worry about it, who cares if Spiderman won the Box office war, it doesn't bother me, all that matters is that you enjoyed it and liked the movie which I did, I liked AOTC 10x better than Spiderman, heck I liked Signs 10x better than Spiderman, and I suspect that I will feel the same way about TTT, and maybe one or two other films, I doubt Spiderman will top my top 5 list of this year but that of course is just my opinion.

[JMK]

Spider Man will most likely end up in my top 5 of the year, but definetly after AotC and TTT.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Right now its third for me but I know TTT will pass it for certain and from the previews I saw for Signs I think The Red Dragon might top it too, that movie looks awesome looks a lot better than Hannible and I liked Hannible.

[Jedieb]

Yeah, Spidey kicked our butt.

It coudln't beat TPM though.

There's something the disheartened should cheer about! All I care about is that I loved AOTC, period. I liked it more than TPM and ROTJ, and the fact that those two did better B.O. means nothing to me.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Exactly Jedieb that is the way I feel. Also here is something to think about what if TTT makes less than FOTR, lets say 285, does that make that a dispointment? Lets say I think TTT is better, does it matter?

[Jedieb]

TTT's B.O. gross is going to be pretty interesting. I think it will perform better than HP2, but will it surpass or falll short of FOTR? I actually think it could have benefitted from a 2 year gap. That could have given FOTR a chance to not only come out on DVD/VHS, but play on sattelite and cable. Those cable showings could have exposed the movie to a lot of viewers who weren't willing to spend money directly on FOTR. Still, the hype of the recent DVD purchase might be enough to get it off to a good start. The holds should be amazing once again.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yes it will be interesting I think it will open higher but I think it will end up making less money because it won't get much help from the Oscars this time, I think the Oscars added at least 20-30 to its gross, I know it pushed it over 300 and got into the top 10. I don't see the Oscars nominating it for Best Picture, history is just not on its side, still it could surprise me and make a little more than FOTR, I think it could do anywhere from 275-325.

[JMK]

I think there's 2 ways to look at LOTR movies, at least there were. For FotR, people were leery about it, not sure what it was about, or if it would be any good at all. But it still had a big fat opening, and an equally high gross. Now, lots of new fans are drooling in anticipation. Will this lead it to open higher and outdistance FotR? Hard to say, isn't it? It is, afterall, still a sequal which generally don't perform as well as the original. If TTT beats FotR, then I think it would be safe to say that RotK would beat both of them. Would that be unprecedented or what? Each movie of a trilogy out-grossing its predecessor on its first run?

[CMJ]

Well Kyle..."Goldmember" has a chance to do that for the AP franchise. I'm not sure of other historical precedents(if any exist) though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Hannible made more than Silence of the Lambs, not sure if Red Dragon could make more than Hannible, could make more than SOTL, though, can't think of any other sequels that took that pattern.

[Sanis Prent]

I don't know what the big hooplah is about Spiderman. It was like any other movie featuring a superhero to me, sans the X-Men, which I consider superior.

Guess its just because I was never into spidey :\

[Jedi Master Carr]

I like Spiderman but he doesn't rate high on my list of comic book heroes, lately I like Batman, JLA, X-Men, Fantastic 4 and Captain America more, but that is just me.

[Doc Milo]

I have yet to see Spiderman.

On a side note. I'm going to the movies in about an hour to see AotC once again! Woo-Hoo!

[Jedieb]

Would that be unprecedented or what? Each movie of a trilogy out-grossing its predecessor on its first run?
Die Hard and Lethal Weapon both came close to accomplishing that if I recall correctly. I know each of the first sequels outgrossed the first movie in the series. But DH3 barely made it passed $100M (but had a great international run and was better than the rehashed DH2 IMO), and I think that LW3 may have fallen short of LW2, I'm not sure. It's going to be interesting to see what effect 'sequelitis' has on TTT. It took a toll on AOTC, didn't it?

[Taataani Meorrrei]

I hope they make a Green Lantern movie.

Now THAT would be worth a viewing!

[Jedieb]

Which lantern? Hal Jordan was always my favorite, even though he did end up going nuts.

[JMK]

They also have Wonder Woman and Wonder Twins and Catwoman movies in the works...

[Jedi Master Carr]

They would probably do Rainer, because of Hal Jordan going nuts, unless they want to go really PC and do John Stewart, would that make Latern fans mad, I know they were upset about it when they chose him for the JLA cartoon series.

[flagg]

According to estimates AOTC had a 42% drop this weekend. That's a bigger drop than recent weeks, but still one of the lowest in the top 20. It's still on track to hit 300 in 3 or 4 weeks.

It's amazing how good AOTC's legs have been compared to films like Scooby Doo and Goldmember, which seem to be dropping 50% or more every week. Really, the only film to have better legs this summer is My Big Fat Greek Wedding :D

[Darth23]

Other than Greek Wedding, Road to Perdition was the only movie in the top 20 that dropped less than AOTC. Most of the movies ahead of it dropped 50-60% (or more).


AOTC is not at $298, 857,000 (approximately).


I'd expect at least a few more million before it's done. Passing ROTJ it probably out of the question (309) but maybe it can make it past Sixth Sense.

[Jedieb]

That 42% drop and 360,000 gross is pretty tough. It means we wont be seeing $300M until sometime in mid to late September. With just over $1M to go I find it hard to believe FOX wouldn't try to keep it around long enough. Or maybe they're just counting on the IMAX numbers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually it already past the Sixth sense, the next movie is ID4 which would be difficult unless it goes on IMAX. I think it will make 300 by Labor Day I think it will make 1 million in 3 weeks.

[Darth23]

ID4. That's what I meant.

Yeah, THAT'S the ticket!

;)

[Jedieb]

I was sad to see AOTC isn't playing anywhere near me. But it hasn't hit my local dollar theater. I think it still has a few of those to go so it may get a boost or another set of strong holds soon. So who knows, it may make it by Labor Day, but it'll be tough.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think it will make it before that weekend, but I figure there is enough time if it drops 20% a weekend from here out, and I think it will because it won't lose too many more theaters since it will now be gaining budget theaters from here on.

[Sanis Prent]

Yeah...we finally lost it at the Summit :cry

[Jedi Master Carr]

Looks like it will be mostly playing in dollar theaters now, hope it does better than Spiderman it is down to 85 theaters, i guess it didn't do well in dollar theaters, the dollar theater near me kept it two weeks and that was it, SW has been there for at least two and I think it will play it for another month, hopefully.

[flagg]

AOTC hasn't even got its dollar theater boost yet, has it? That will add at least $2 or $3 million to the box office.

[Jedieb]

AOTC dropped over 53% from the previous Monday. That's it's second worst Monday drop I think. It lost screens last Wed. and it might lose some more today. I don't know, but I think it may already be in the middle of its dollar theater run.

[JonathanLB]

It is playing in every dollar theater in Portland pretty much. It went from about 3 theaters to about 7 (and this is after losing 2 of those 3, so then adding another 6).

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I think it first hit dollar theaters here about 3 weeks ago and I think it will stay in them for about month to maybe November when the DVD comes out so I think it will be on at least a 100 screens for the next month considering how close it is to 300 I don't think Fox will give up on it yet, it only needs 1.1 to make it, it is not like Pearl Harbor and 200, it was stuck on 197 for ever and wasn't really even close to 200.

[Darth23]

That Pearl Harbor performace was pretty sad at the end. heh heh

Especially considering its HUGE opening and all the hype.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It was especially since it played forever trying to get 200, and it made like 2 million in 3 months that was just pathetic.

[JMK]

That was sad. I think people were staying away on purpose just so that it wouldn't make it.:p

[JMK]

Looks like it will limp over 300M. It's now at $299,016,591 as of last weekend...

[Jedieb]

It hit $299M on Wed. It took about 11 days to get this last million. The screen counts have dropped to around 250 now. I think AOTC would have to stay in theaters for at least another 3-4 weeks to get that last million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am sure it will be in theaters another month, at least dollar theaters, I am still hoping it makes it by Labor Day but if not it will make it the weekend after that.

[JonathanLB]

This will be exciting when it does actually hit $300M, it will be a relief, let's put it that way. That'll still make 4 SW films above $300M, and ESB is going to get there very soon once it gets a re-release. :)

[Admiral Lebron]

ESB made less than 300m?

[Jedieb]

ESB didn't even make it to $200M. It's gross was around $198M. But if you adjust those 1980 numbers for inflation it comes out to over $425M in today's dollars. AOTC is the first SW film not to generate $400M (again, adjusted for inflation) numbers or to crack the all time domestic top 5.

[JMK]

198M in its first run though. Hasn't it had 2 re-releases now? And hasn't its gross made to about 290M?

[Jedieb]

ESB
1980 $198,000,000* (estimate)
1981 $23,347,500* (estimate)
1983 $3,348,546
1997 $67,484,485

I think we'll get a nice 6 film release one day and we'll see everybody over $300M. That'll should make everybody happy.:D

[JonathanLB]

Actually, I don't think any Star Wars movie before AOTC failed to crack the top THREE domestically, let alone top 5...

ANH was #1. ESB was #2. ROTJ came out after E.T., but it made more money than ESB and took #3, just behind ANH at that point. TPM then came out in 1999 and also took #3, again behind ANH and this time behind Titanic in #1. AOTC hasn't made it into the top ten...

[dbn]

maybe when it is re-release after Ep. 3 it will crack that top 10, I thought I heard they will be releasing all the Star Wars movies that summer. Or something like that.

But it looks like we have a slim chance of crossing the 300 million mark, before it comes out on dvd:)

[flagg]

AOTC hasn't even got its second wind yet. Too bad Lucas didn't want to spend any more money on a secondary marketing campaign.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will make it to 300 now, but it won't do it till either Labor day or the weekend after that.

[Jedieb]

WOW, with an impressive hold of -5.9% AOTC managed to bring in over $320,000 this weekend. Only a MASSIVE drop in theaters could stop it from eeking past $300M now. I'd say 2-3 weeks if it can stay in enough theaters. BTW, FOTR is STILL in the top 50 bringing in over $18,000. There must be some lucky Tolkien fans living in their local dollar theaters.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I was surprised by the small drop too, I think now it wil make it by labor day as long as it stays in enough theaters, also I think FOTR is at its end it dropped 60% from last weekend because everybody can get it on DVD, it might lose its last 40 theaters.

[dbn]

come on baby, only 600,000 more dollars to go!!!!

it looks like we will see 300.5 to 301, by they time it comes out on dvd. Unless, they will do one last BIG push ot bringing up the screen count up before it comes out on dvd.

[JMK]

What a weird run. Big start, big drop, leveling off, another big unexpected drop, and now another strong hold. I don't get it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well at 299.551 through today I think its a forgone conclusion that it will make 300, but the question is when, anybody want to guess a date. I am guessing Wed. August 28, I think it will make almost 50 thousand tomorrow around 300 thousand for the weekend and make another 100 thousand between Monday and Wed.

[JMK]

It'll be a week from now in any case, then we can all breathe a sigh of relief. ;)

[Quadinaros]

I'll go with Tuesday August 27.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think you might be right, it could do it Monday too because they gave AOTC 20 more theaters which could help, in its push.

[JonathanLB]

That is going to be a great day when AOTC finally cracks $300 million. That is the mark of a true giant blockbuster now, $200 million is just more like a big blockbuster, not huge.

I noticed AOTC is #10 in the U.K. all-time, nearly #9, that is pretty awesome. It did well there.

I can't wait until all of the SW films get their re-releases after Episode III, that'll be nice. I wish ANH could pull in another $40M at least to get to $500M, then I want to see ESB cross $300M of course, TPM will pass E.T. again easily, ROTJ can smoke everything near it on its way to $350M or so, etc.

[Jedieb]

We may not know until tomorrow, but I think that today may be the day we pass $300M!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it made a little more than 40,000 today (40.353 to be exact) so it stands at 299,956,657 so it will have to make 43,000 which is possible it did go up last Tuesday so I think it may do it today or it might do it tomorrow.

[JMK]

It's about freakin time! :)

[JonathanLB]

I really, really wanted to see AOTC the day it crosses $300M, because I think I did the same with TPM for $400M, but I am feeling worse today than I did yesterday.

I just don't think I can make it out to a theater. I was going to go see Undisputed and Little Secrets soon, the only two movies in release nationally that I have not seen, but I think I will just wait because it makes no sense to go out now when I could just catch up on reviews and watch those two later.

[Darth23]

How long before AOTC reaches 400 million?

:p :p :p

[JonathanLB]

Haha, I'm guessing release #4 :)

[dbn]

maybe in ten years or so, btw of the ajusted gross=P

[darth_mcbain]

According to theforce.net, we just made it yesterday!!! http://www.theforce.net/episode2/index.html#17947

[Jedi Master Carr]

I saw that I think that is based on speculation because last Tuesday it went up like 16% from Monday so if it does that again it will pass 300 so it probably did pass it yesterday, we will know around 4 when they release the numbers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well its official according to Mojo AOTC made 44,830 putting it t over 300 million.

[darth_mcbain]

I've only been following the B.O. with mild interest, but WHOOHOO!!!!

[JonathanLB]

Yay, that is so cool. What a great day. We finally crossed the $300 million mark! :)

[Jedieb]

It took awhile, but we made it. Now we can put this thread to rest on a positive note.:)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know it started off negative at least it ends postive.

[flagg]

Good news! Now we have to sacrifice Jedieb for starting this false topic >D

I'm also amazed that AOTC finally became the most successful film of 2002 in the UK . . . until Harry Potter 2 and The Two Towers come out, of course.

[Admiral Lebron]

I was just thinking we should crusify him for his wavering loyalty. :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

Don't be too cruel to Jedieb, it did look like it would be close so at the time the question was valid, also AOTC wasn't performing like it did in the last month when it started dropping 5-10% every weekend, when that happened it made it easier for it to cross.

[JonathanLB]

Jedieb should be exiled from the fan community!!!

Haha, j/k.

It was a very valid question. Hey, I agreed with his question at one point. There were more than a few weekends where I thought we wouldn't see $300M because of the drops...

[Jedieb]

Yeah, what Jon said!

This last month really pulled it off. I think we're seeing the same kind of end legs that FOTR had. Where a small but loyal following was able to keep hitting small local theaters and the money kept coming in. I remember that when I finally saw FOTR towards the end of its run at my local theater I had to go 3 times because it had been sold out the first 2.

This last milestone will be it for the domestic run. At $306 ID4 is too far away. But if there is an IMAX release those figures should be included in the total and AOTC could jump past ID4 and ROTJ. But the next films may take a future release.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well the IMAX thing might not happen for a while, the current rumor is they want to show all 5 on IMAX of something like that or at least the 2 prequels, who knows maybe we will get an IMAX release of both TPM and AOTC in the next year or so.

[dbn]

That would rock,!!!
But I don't think we have a IMAX in Alaska...damn it!!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well now its official IMAX is coming, Nov. Now How much do you all think it will make? I think anywhere from 2-5 million sounds right, it could even get it pass ID4, and maybe, maybe pass ROTJ. I wouldn't expect more than that. I know Beauty and the Beast made 23 million from IMAX but AOTC has the DVD coming out 2 weeks later which will affect it.

[JMK]

It certainly will affect it, but I imagine any moviegoer who thinks AotC is a movie best seen on a big screen will make it a point to go out and see this.

[JonathanLB]

I do not think it is going to be realistic to say "Oh this movie is going to make about $2 to $5 million extra in IMAX." Nah, they wouldn't even bother if that were the case.

This is an expensive and time-consuming transfer (five weeks to do this) of a film to a totally different format, NOT just blowing up the normal film print, but actually transferring the film to IMAX projection format. This has hardly ever been done before. It's a totally new way of bringing commercial films to IMAX, and no live-action film has ever been taken from digital to IMAX before. This really is revolutionary, and not just a little extra squeeze for some cash.

Fox thinks it will make about $20 million in the 7 weeks they are going to run it.

This will be the first film EVER to be projected on digital, film, and IMAX formats. It's another breakthrough for a saga that has never had a single film that wasn't revolutionary. Every single one of the Star Wars films broke new ground in not just software but hardware enhancements. The first Star Wars is obvious, then it was because of Return of the Jedi that the THX system was developed. TPM should be rather obvious too. The first major film ever to be projected in digital format. Then AOTC is the first film ever to be filmed in digital and projected in digital and the first ever digital to DVD transfer, and the first ever digital film projected in IMAX, etc. etc. The list goes on.

AOTC, even despite its less-than-normal (for a Star Wars movie) box office gross, has still been a major breakthrough and a landmark film. Plus, it is more acclaimed than both TPM and ROTJ for the most part.

I think that the IMAX release should definitely add $10 million.

If it adds $20 million, it would pass The Lion King, Independence Day, Return of the Jedi, Harry Potter, and Lord of the Rings to break into the top ten. It also would have a very outside chance of passing Forrest Gump because it should be at $303-$305 million before this IMAX release possibly. It's still going in dollar theaters and if it really could add $20 million from IMAX, it would have no trouble passing all of those other films, which I think would be a major event. :)

If it passed Harry Potter and LOTR, or even just LOTR, I would be one VERY happy camper / Star Wars fan ;)

[CMJ]

"This will be a day long remembered." ;) Great news. :D