What an Upset

[CMJ]

Looks like the Ya Ya sisters will win the weekend.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

NO! Really? o_O

[CMJ]

Well...unless "Sum of all Fears" comes through it will. "Ya Ya" outgrossed "Company" on Friday according to early numbers.

EDIT: These are the numbers I've seen. I don't have official verification as of yet.

1 SUM OF ALL FEARS, THE PARAMOUNT 3,218 6,187,500 1,923 49,275,500
2 DIVINE SECRETS OF THE YA YA SISTERHOOD WARNER BROS. 2,507 5,981,000 2,386 5,981,000
3 STAR WARS: EPISODE II - ATTACK OF THE CLONES 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,161 3,948,000 1,249 245,063,000
4 BAD COMPANY BUENA VISTA 2,944 3,879,500 1,318 3,879,500
5 SPIDER-MAN SONY 3,235 3,115,500 963 363,235,500

LOOK how well AOTC Held up!!!!!!!

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Impressive...most impressive....

[CMJ]

A 26% drop I think...most impressive indeed. That almost makes up for last weekend. ;) At the very least it'll average out last weekends drop...now we're dropping at an average of 40-45% per weekend I think(help me on the actual number Jon).

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow, I have to say I think Sum will take the weekend probably doing around 20 million which is a low number. AOTC did very well it could retain the second spot it it does on Saturday and Sunday what it has been doing, it will at least make 14 I think, but I think it will be closer to 15 or 16 so it will at least keep the 3rd spot. Also it likes a bad week for our guesses, nobody will get the one or two film right a couple of us will get the third and everybody will get the fifth unless things changes on Saturday and Sunday.

[JonathanLB]

Bad Company couldn't even beat a FOUR WEEK OLD MOVIE. LOL, oh my god. That is so sad, and it has a way bigger marketing campaign going too. I've been bombarded with Bad Company ads everywhere I look, lol. That studio is going to lose its ass on this film. Haha, and you know the staying power is going to suck hard too. This is pretty funny.

This weekend is probably going to be one of the suckiest ever for a recent summer. At least for this summer, this one should take the cake.

I told you guys that AOTC was busier than Bad Company! LOL, I was right. Apparently it wasn't just my theater, either. I bet AOTC annihilates that film on Saturday by an even bigger margin of victory.

Ya-Ya, NO-NO!!! For once, I'm actually rooting for The Sum Of All Fears to win the weekend.

26% decline huh? That would be quite good. I'm impressed!

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think SOAF will win it out, also what about the drops AOTC did 26, SM 17 and Spirt dropped 3%, wow, Spirt is doing way better and considering that Saturday is its best day it will be neck and neck between that and Spiderman, I bet the difference will be very small.

[JonathanLB]

I have this little smirk on my face because of what I did yesterday, LOL, and I am going to end up being right too.

I sent that idiot at Box Office Guru an e-mail, only about one paragraph long (a fairly big one), and said that unless he knows something we don't, there is no way AOTC will drop 45% this weekend after having much better staying power during the week. I said, "and your 45% estimate is not 'conservative' either, so I have no idea what you are talking about." Then like the arrogant SOB I can be, I finished with, "Oh well, you will see how wrong you are later. Have a nice day."

Hahaha, that fool. He's such a horrid predictor. Whenever he is actually right about something, I'm right about it too, and whenever he's wrong there's a 50% chance I was right! LOL. Just proves if you start a site and keep it going, you will be able to do well regardless of how good you are. Dutchy is ten times more accurate than that fool.

[Jedieb]

I think Spirit is benefitting from having the animation field to itself and strong word of mouth. Parents talk to each other and I think the news is starting to spread about Spirit. I was going to be taking the boy to the movies today but a neighborhood friend is having a birthday party. If we go next week it'll be a toss up between Spirit and AOTC. I'll let him decide and let the chips fall where they may.

[JonathanLB]

Jedieb, you gotta make him see AOTC.

If I ever have a boy, I am going to shove Star Wars so far down his throat you'd have to pull it out of his ASS! lol, j/k!! :)

[Jedieb]

I already took him to see it awhile ago. Taking a 3 year old to see ANY movie isn't your typical trip to the movies. You're lucky if you can get through the movie with only 3 trips to the bathroom. Ughh, the boy wears me out!:zzz

[Lilaena De'Ville]

:lol I know exactly what you mean. I took a bunch of my nephews and my then three year old niece to see Monsters Inc, and she had to go to the bathroom RIGHT BEFORE THE MOVIE STARTED...so we missed the little "For the Birds" short in front of the movie. Man, that sucked! Plus, she didn't even go.

And then she had to go in the middle of the movie. And nearly got sucked down the toilet (they're those automatic flushers...scary when you're three!).... :lol

Now I'm tempted more to see Ya-Ya...but I think my wallet will help me resist.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Dutchy is ten times more accurate than that fool.

Hehe, I don't know if that's a compliment or not, but thanks. :)

[JonathanLB]

It was definitely meant as a compliment! I think you're a great box office analyst. You deserve your own site more than he does. I know you live in another country and whatnot, but seriously you can predict as well as anyone here, you are that good. :)

[CMJ]

Weekend Estimates....

1. Sum of All Fears - 18.70M
2. The Divine Secrets of the Ya Ya Sisterhood - 16.35M
3. Attack of the Clones - 13.88M
4. Bad Company - 10.46M
5. Spider-Man - 10.00M

[imported_QuiGonJ]

eep :(

[CMJ]

AOTC was down about 34% according to estimates. Still a pretty good number.

Overall the BO was up about 8% from this weekend last year.

[Quadinaros]

Given Friday's numbers, all those estimates look low. The studios must be expecting all the sporting events this weekend to bring Saturday and Sunday night's numbers down.

I'm surprised YaYa didn't come closer to winning the weekend, but the estimates have it dropping on Saturday and Sunday. Kewl.

I'm sure AOTC's estimate is low again. After seeing Friday's number, I was thinking it would make over $15 million.

We'll see what happens. Maybe AOTC can pass YaYa during the week. o_O

[JonathanLB]

Yeah their estimate does not seem right at all to me. We'll see, but I would think more like $14.5 million.

Usually the Friday decline is the worst for AOTC, so it should really be more like $15.5 million or so.

I think if they are underpredicting for the sports events they really are being stupid. Nobody is going to choose to avoid going to theaters for any sports event on Sunday and the Tyson-Lewis fight was way too expensive for that many people to buy and thus miss out on going to the movies. If they really wanted to go to the movies, they'd just choose to go Sunday or Saturday afternoon instead of Saturday night. It's REALLY silly predicting lower box office numbers for any sports event besides the Super Bowl. If that's what they are doing, they WILL be wrong.

[CMJ]

I wouldn't expect that Quad...I think "Ya Ya" will have okay legs. It's the only film our right now that caters only to women. Who can say though...we all thought Bad Company would open at #1, so what do we know?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Some other site said AOTC made 14.5 so who knows those numbers I bet are off because they estamitated for Sunday, I guess we will have to wait until tomorrow to find out.

[Quadinaros]

Originally posted by CMJ
I wouldn't expect that Quad...I think "Ya Ya" will have okay legs. It's the only film our right now that caters only to women. Who can say though...we all thought Bad Company would open at #1, so what do we know?

Maybe so, but its estimates are $5.98, $5.76, $4.61 for Fri-Sun. Those were the numbers I was looking at when I made that comment. It's usually not a good sign when an opener drops on Saturday and Sunday. Plus AOTC was only about $50K behind YaYa on Saturday.

My fingers are crossed that AOTC will be back in 2nd place by Thursday. :D