AOTC V. Spidey V. TPM. V. LOTR O'my!

[Jedieb]

mojo has put up some great charts on how all of these films are fairing against one another. Here's a link:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/starwars/versus2.htm

Who would have thought that AOTC could fall short of not only Spidey, but FOTR as well? I have a feeling that AOTC may pick up some legs and get close to $320, but that's still a good showing for FOTR. Hell, it's a good showing for AOTC, we're just spoiled. ;)

[Figrin D'an]

I think we're starting to see some of the legs for AOTC... this week's total's seem to indicate that. I think $320-$330 is pretty feasible... very interesting comparisons, though.

It'll be interesting to chart "The Two Towers" against these 4 films when it comes out in December...

[Marcus Telcontar]

I'd say TTT would have little or no chance of beating SpiderMan. It willbe the wrong kind of movie and too long in length.

That being said...No one expected FOTR to be what it was. Then again..... have a look at this supposition.

FOTR beginning wiith the same gross as SpiderMan, using the FOTR dropoffs, thois would be comapartive weekend totals

$114,844,166.00
18.04 $94,128,819.97
40.55 $55,964,262.48
29.58 $39,410,325.60
23.01 $30,342,977.65
37.44 $18,981,346.29
26.90 $13,875,877.83
36.57 $8,801,920.59
-29.94 $11,437,473.31
26.46 $8,411,411.66
4.04 $8,071,752.70
19.13 $6,527,294.58
21.05 $5,153,046.65
-11.59 $5,750,222.33
-0.80 $5,796,258.28
26.97 $4,232,872.51
29.93 $2,966,172.34
36.71 $1,877,223.24
-3.41 $1,941,165.17
43.35 $1,099,659.61
-11.15 $1,222,323.22
18.10 $1,001,029.56
12.87 $872,231.06
37.34 $546,500.86


Percent drop offs are on the left, weekend by weekend total right.

Now, full week

$75,129,468 114,884,166.00
$155,862,412 -107.46 238,336,882.85
$205,509,869 -31.85 314,255,252.08
$228,320,875 -11.10 349,136,683.69
$245,418,551 -7.49 375,281,581.29
$258,449,272 -5.31 395,207,497.90
$266,274,199 -3.03 407,172,978.78
$271,416,919 -1.93 415,036,964.96
$277,635,371 -2.29 424,545,905.87
$283,191,086 -2.00 433,041,423.02
$287,573,505 -1.55 439,742,795.54
$291,149,457 -1.24 445,210,959.68
$294,343,844 -1.10 450,095,654.01
$297,530,963 -1.08 454,969,234.49
$301,308,405 -1.27 460,745,506.91
$304,117,086 -0.93 465,040,399.21
$305,819,565 -0.56 467,643,743.62
$306,999,514 -0.39 469,448,061.69
$308,078,986 -0.35 471,098,735.44
$308,791,984 -0.23 472,189,015.76
$309,471,992 -0.22 473,228,849.45
$310,078,970 -0.20 474,157,009.37
$310,629,729 -0.18 474,999,202.06
$311,053,126 -0.14 475,646,639.24


At week five, LOTR has 373 million.

what is the point of this? Well, Imagine FOTR type staying power combined with a far bigger opening, which I think we can expect TTT to have. Not in Spider Man range, but say more like 70 million. I would say LOTR:TTT would go past AOTC fairly easily. But Spider Man? I would like to see that and it's possible. LOTR:TTT will need a big opening however.

[Figrin D'an]

I wouldn't count on a huge opening day for TTT... it's opening on December 25th. It will do well, but it's not going to break any opening day records... it's opening weekend could be pretty big, since a lot of people will have days off for the holidays...

I agree, it won't beat Spiderman... there's a pretty good shot for it to top AOTC, though. I think it's a pretty solid choice to finish second in the box office battle... in the end, the places could look like this...

1) Spiderman
2) The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
3) Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones
4) Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets


Worldwide, however, Spiderman could end up in third, behind both AOTC and TTT, which would finish 1-2, in either order.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Opening December 25???????


Must be going for a AOTC type world wide release. Dec 26 is opening day in Aust

[JonathanLB]

I would bet on TTT to pass AOTC, by a little bit. $325 million vs. $318 million for AOTC or something, hehe. I sure hope I'm wrong though ;) As good as FOTR was, it's no Star Wars of any kind.

I think AOTC is going to display good staying power this weekend compared to before. It loses 0 theaters, it has had a great mid-week, what is hard to predict about this? It should manage quite well.

I would be happy enough if AOTC gets to $300M, I'd be quite pleased if it got to $313M, and I'd be overjoyed at this point if it hit $320M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

TTT could beat AOTC domestically, but it will be close, WW I wouldn't be surprised if Spiderman finished fourth behind TTT, AOTC and Hp2 (It made 650 million overseas last year, I think it will do less but I bet it will make more than 500 which well propell it over Spiderman.) I think that shows how big the international market is coming if Spiderman finishes first in the US and 4 WW.