Tuesday....2.27M

[CMJ]

Have we found out legs?

[Quadinaros]

Originally posted by CMJ
Have we found out legs?

Possibly. It's time to make our move. The competition this weekend shouldn't be too tough, but after that, there's blockbuster material coming out every week.

Time to turn on the tractor beam and catch Sum Of All Fears. :smokin

[JonathanLB]

Wow that is nice, well if you compare that to the second weekday from last week (taking out Memorial Day so comparing Tues. to Wed.) then that's less than a 30% decline. If you don't want to do that, fine, but it'll probably look like that on Wed. too. Point being, there exists the possibility AOTC will fall more like 30% to 35% this weekend, and probably not above 40%, so no more 55%+ stuff...

[CMJ]

Man...if it drops less than 30% this weekend I might leap for joy. :)

[JonathanLB]

If it fell 33% or something like that, I would be so happy!

I did the math and it needs basically two 30% declines or less to remain above $10M for two more weekends, which is probably essential if it wanted to have any chance at, say, $320M (putting it above LOTR and at exactly 4 times its opening).

I think these films can crawl a really long time, though, and add quite a sum.

If I remember correctly, LOTR had basically stopped at $295 million or so, and it crawled all the way up to $313M or something now...? It has made it a long ways.

So even if AOTC basically came to a crawl at $300M even, it could definitely make it to $315M eventually, probably.

Also I looked through the charts of past releases and even films with HORRIBLE staying power where the first weekend was 40% of the total box office and they still were in theaters for four months total, in some capacity (i.e. dollar theaters).

I think there is a solid chance AOTC will be playing in at least one Portland-area theater through September, which would definitely allow me to get to the goal I want: above 50...

[CMJ]

Of course films that are released in the winter and spring can stay in release longer simply because not as many films are issued normally. Would AOTC really stay at discount theatres for months when all the other titans of summer start hitting them too? It's hard to say...I hope you're right.

[JonathanLB]

It's true that it's much harder to hold theaters with so many other movies, but I think we can expect AOTC to remain playing in at least some theaters well into the fall. TPM was around until 2-03-00! LOL. That was amazing. Seeing TPM in 2000 was so cool because that entire year I could say, "Well I've seen TPM this year," and then in 2001 as the wait for AOTC shrunk, I could still say, "I just saw TPM last year." lol.

[CMJ]

Yeah I'm pretty sure I saw TPM in January of 2000(maybe it was December of '99).

It's really cool when any film plays like that. I remember seeing "Jurassic Park" in discount theatres over a year after it's initial release(that was my first big I have to see this in the theatre a jillion times movie).

[JonathanLB]

I believe JP played for 469 days, but don't quote me on that exactly. It was more than 400 at least, I know that much. It was just an incredible length of time, which is odd because TPM did just as well as JP basically in staying power yet it was not around even close to as long. Still, you can't complain any time the seasons change three times and the movie is still playing. ;)

Late spring became early summer became fall became winter and winter became the next year, lol.

Quadinaros, dude, you said you had our back, Buff and I, you gotta reach 10 viewings here soon.

Grr, see I want some competition on my back here so that I am pressured to see AOTC more. I am applying pressure to Buff but nobody is on me, haha. I want to have someone breathing down my back so it's a real race :)

[Lilaena De'Ville]

*cues Darth Vader creepy breathing soundclip*

I saw TPM THIS year. Ha!

Well, not in theatres. ^_^;

[CMJ]

Yeah...God I love "Jurassic Park"! Other than SW it's probably my favorite franchise(I LOVE Dinosaurs!).

I've always loved movies but the summer of '93 is what first really started my life heading in the "I wanna make movies" direction....so in a sense...JP "kinda" did for me what SW did for you Jonathan(though my process was a much more gradual thing than yours). :)

[Marcus Telcontar]

What was in JP that people liked so much? I never understood why it did so well. I never liked it all that much

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I loved it. Scared the crap out of me. But then I was only 13 and very timid. :)

[CMJ]

I don't know Marcus...for me it had "It"...whatever that is. I was transfixed watching it(granted I was only 14 when it was first released but I still love it).

The fact that I have always been fascinated in Dinosaurs no doubt helped matters. :)

[JonathanLB]

I love JP, one of my top 50 favorites I am sure. It's a great film, so much imagination (mostly from Crichton) and the movie is very well directed. I don't much care for some of the child acting myself, but the rest is great. I actually think Jake Lloyd rules in TPM, but I'm not a big fan of the girl in JP, she's pretty frickin' overdramatic. I think that goes with some girls in general though, ahem, my sister! :)

[CMJ]

I gotta diagree with you...I thought the kids were great. I wonder what happened to them, I saw them in a few films here and there till around '97(when "Lost World" came out) and then they dropped off the planet. ;)

[JonathanLB]

It never bothered me at first, like when I saw JP the first 5 times, but I caught it again on TV last year I think and their acting just really was grating. Mostly just hers, though, that stupid look on her face when she cracks the computer thingie or whatever, like she just won a Nobel prize, lol.

[CMJ]

LOL!

Sounds like how I felt when Anakin went "Yipee!"

;)

You KNOW I really liked that movie, but damn I wanted to wring Lloyd's neck half the time. Anakin read alot better on paper(I read the script before I saw the movie...damn I couldn't resist...I was young and immature in the ways of the spoiler) so I was pretty disappointed in the kiddo's performance.

[JonathanLB]

See I totally disagree with that, I thought "Yippee!" was a totally natural line and his performance was awesome, just as I'd want to see a young kid act. It was perfect for me, never bothered me.

I just wanted to point this out because I thought it was pretty stupid/interesting...

AOTC is STILL number one in Canada! WTF? Why is the U.S. so stupid? I don't get it, our movie even holds #1 in Canada and the dumb people in the U.S. rush out to see Sum of All Fears. Ugg.

I am disappointed in my country for the first time since Vietnam. Haha, j/k, j/k ;) I wasn't even alive then.

[CMJ]

Well I think "Sum" is a VERY U.S. centric film. I bet it doesn't do well anywhere else...well maybe the Middle East. ;)

[Quadinaros]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Quadinaros, dude, you said you had our back, Buff and I, you gotta reach 10 viewings here soon.

Grr, see I want some competition on my back here so that I am pressured to see AOTC more. I am applying pressure to Buff but nobody is on me, haha. I want to have someone breathing down my back so it's a real race :)

Sorry to let you down, but I don't think I can keep up. :( I'll make it #9 on Friday and may get to 10 before the weekend's over, but after that, all I can afford is basically once per week.

[CMJ]

Quad, no shame in that. :)

[JonathanLB]

No shame in that at all, that is really good. Just getting to 10 viewings is actually really awesome dude.

I just am kidding, but Buff and I's competition is going to get fun here soon :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I think "Sum" is a VERY U.S. centric film. I bet it doesn't do well anywhere else...well maybe the Middle East
Ouch but it is true one reason that ID4 was so popular outside of the US was everybody got a kick out of seeing NY and Washington blown up. That is at least in some parts of the world.

Also back to AOTC I was surprised it went up at all, though not much, still that is pretty good, I know it went down last weekend, hopefully this trend will continue through the week.

And about JP I loved that movie, too it was the first movie of the 90's that really existed me and like you CMJ the first that I had to see multiple times. I really like the series still I would rank it below Star Wars and Back to the Future (which is my second fav). As far as the kids, I have no idea where they went, the girl isn't a bad actress she has done some decent work in a couple of films but the last movie I saw her in was the straight to video release of Tremors 3 that was a year ago, not sure what happened to her since, I think she is like 21 or 22 now, maybe she went to college.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

CMJ, the boy from JP has been in a lot of movies. Simon Birch, for one. More, I'm sure..can't think of them at the moment. He's not a bad child actor.

[JonathanLB]

I think the possibility absolutely exists for AOTC to pass BOTH Harry Potter and LOTR at the box office, sitting just behind Forrest Gump. There is absolutely no shame in that. Even though it cannot win the year, did ANH have a Spider-Man open against it? Heck no. Neither did ESB, neither did ROTJ, and TPM had only The Sixth Sense that even proved somewhat impressive. No film during any of those years came close to selling as many tickets as Spider-Man. Lucas can't control what else comes out during the same year as his movies, LOL, he is a genius but he hasn't mastered that quite yet.

I do however think that other studios should avoid planning major tentpole pictures for the summer of 2005, lol, Lucas just stole the two best weekends. Memorial Day Weekend and July 4th weekend are the best of the summer, and he has them both that year.

I am just going to be pleased at this point if AOTC clears $300M, which I think it will, but I will be extremely happy if it finds its way anywhere above $313M to crack the top ten. That is still without a doubt incredibly impressive and deserves our respect. Less than we had hoped? Yes, but what WOULDN'T be less than what we had hoped? I personally hoped TPM could have made $1 billion or more in just the U.S., so that it would reign forever as #1, haha, but it's just not possible.

On the plus side, with AOTC looking quite likely to pass both ESB and ROTJ, that also puts the prequel trilogy on firm track, roughly, to equal the dollar total of the OT, making the two Star Wars trilogies the highest grossing in history. The competition will not be able to mess with them after the Ultimate Edition re-releases, either, which will surely add $100+ million to each trilogy and that's pretty conservative.

Regardless of where Episode III ends up, and I'm assuming that will be between $280 million and $500 million (large range, but who really can tell?), it would be incredibly pleasing to see the entire Star Wars Saga do excellent on re-release a few years later. That would serve as the perfect end to a perfect saga. For instance, if each film could make about $50 million in re-release, that would absolutely rock (and I do not think that $50 million 2006 or 2007 dollars is all that high of expectations; after all ANH made $140M in 1997 dollars, hehe).

ESB badly needs another injection. Its gross is becoming too common. Many films can make $295 million or more now, it's just not as hard as it used to be. Even in 1997 that was very difficult (LW: JP and MIB could not even come reasonably close).

I still remember thinking after ANH: SE finished playing and at the end of the summer in 1997, "Surely no film will be able to challenge ANH at the box office for many years, if not another solid decade." Well, I didn't see Titanic coming, but aside from that one film, ANH's total still seems nearly insurmountable. As huge as Spider-Man was, ANH certainly was never in danger. E.T. came out again, no luck there either. LOTR and Harry Potter, massive phenomenons, could not even crack $325M. Anything above $400M is still extremely safe as it is an uncommon number, for a few more years anyway. ;) By that point when it is more common, though, ANH will already be well above $500M. :crack

[CMJ]

Lilaena...I do remember him in "Simon Birch", but that was like '98. It has been SEVERAL years since I've seen either of them.

[JMK]

I hope AotC has found it's legs now. Slowly and surely it can creep up the B.O. list now...

[CMJ]

Ouch BO Guru is predicitng a 45% fall. I firmly believe(hope?) it will hold better than that. :)

[JMK]

I think so too, is anyone really interested in Bad Company?

[CMJ]

Though I think it will do well...I have no interest in seeing it(as much as I'm a Hopkins fan that's saying somthing).

[BUFFJEDI]

I just am kidding, but Buff and I's competition is going to get fun here soon

I don't know Jon,you might end up blowing me away :(.But as a SW fan you do us proud :)



I'm still very hopefull that AOTC will have strong legs.I think Baketball games/hocky games and world cup are keeping things slow.

[CMJ]

You are right buff...at least about Europe...the WC has destroyed the Box Office there. AOTC was down like 60% in Great Britain...and it was STILL #1(which means ALL the films had to have pretty big drops!).

[JonathanLB]

That hurt badly, but was not a reflection of AOTC's staying power, just of lack of interest in going to the movies compared to watching the WC...

Super Bowl weekend here in the U.S. is horrid, but it little matters because so are both January and February ;)

Ahh, what other time of the year can a film make like $13M and end up in first?! lol.

[CMJ]

I'd say mid to late September. Usually the Boxoffice is really glacial then too. The post-summer syndrome. :)

[JonathanLB]

I have found that we get more actual "new" quality films in September and October than we do in Jan/Feb, though. Still, a lot of releases from the previous year go "wide" in Jan and Feb so that's the first time we see them (we as in people not in LA and NY, grr).