Monday Gross

[Jedi Master Carr]

Surprised nobody even mentioned it today but SW made 2.22 million, which isn't bad considering it was only a million less than SOAF I was hoping it would make at least 2, I was shoting for 2.5 but I think that is a good Monday. What kind of drop is that 25-30%.

[JonathanLB]

It is a fall of about 38% from last Tuesday, if you feel it is ok to use that comparison, considering it doesn't do much good to compare Monday-to-Monday.

That's a much better decline than we may have feared, though. I mean, if the film falls 35% to 38% the rest of the way, I think it would clear $300 million at least, which is fine. I just fear that we won't make $300M. I really think if it makes $300M, it's all good. That I can accept a little bit more than $290M, lol. If it could just make it to $315M or $325M, I'd be super happy, but it would need to show even better declines. Like 30 to 35% and then even lower as the run winds down.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will make 300 million it only needs about 65 million and I think it will do that, I am hoping it passes The Lion King at 312 so it can get into the top 10 that is really my hope, if it does that, that would be very cool.

[JMK]

I'm just hoping for 300M. Critics will have a hard time bashing a movie that crosses that landmark figure.

Top 10 would be even nicer though.

[Admiral Lebron]

Anyone else notice Spirit almost has overtaken Spidey?

[JonathanLB]

Interesting...

I think Spider-Man would have done well this next weekend, lol, that is if it weren't just blown out of a bunch of theaters ;) Sorry, I can see this one coming. Spidey is all poised to have a solid weekend with another mid-30's decline and, WAM, it gets hammered by the opening of two new films. Ouch. AOTC will suffer from the same thing over time, but at this point it is just not my concern. AOTC lost to Spider-Man. TPM didn't. So if whatever happens to AOTC happens to Spider-Man, so be it, TPM is victorious and TPM is Star Wars, which still rules over the box office. :)

TPM vs. Spider-Man? I think not. Even unadjusted, Spidey has little chance.

Think of it this way, if you want. We are asking ourselves if AOTC is going to break $300M. That is $65M more. Spider-Man, which made $14M last weekend, not $21M like AOTC, has to make another $75 million basically to beat TPM. Is that going to happen? You tell me. Spider-Man didn't display much better staying power than AOTC last weekend, s how is it going to make even more than AOTC from now on when it's not making as much anyway? That is nonsensical, or more like: not possible.

Spider-Man could hold up better than AOTC from now on, which I don't think it will actually (AOTC is going to start dropping in the upper 30's to low 40's, not high 50's like before, and this Monday gross is my early proof for that statement), yet it still couldn't make as much from this point forward as AOTC will.

We are not talking about TPM staying power vs. AOTC staying power. Remember, TPM had excellent staying power, and in case anyone here forgot, Spider-Man's staying power is only average. 37% declines are not good, they are average. 37% has never been considered a good rate of descent, however when a film opens as huge as Spider-Man, it becomes EXCELLENT for a film of that opening power. Nonetheless, at this point in its run, none of that means anything. It's as if Spider-Man opened last weekend at $14M. 37% declines from now on do not constitute excellent "legs."

$115M opening. 4 times that is considered average staying power, ask any box office analyst. $460 million is 4 times $115M, which is out of reach, so yes I am saying that Spider-Man has had below average staying power. In the end, though, it only matters how much money it makes. Same goes for AOTC.

AOTC made $80M opening weekend. 4 times that is $320M, which it will not quite make *probably*. Spider-Man and AOTC, funny enough, have had roughly equal staying power. I would say AOTC finishes slightly ahead, LOL. How ironic. Do the math yourself, though.

TPM made 6.65 times as much as its opening weekend. That was excellent staying power. 4 times as much, or less, is not excellent staying power, not good staying power, it's average staying power. You can comb the charts on Box Office Guru and observe the same thing.

Austin Powers 2 made almost exactly 4 times its opening weekend, which is considered average staying power.

Do not misinterpret me, though, Spider-Man has been an incredible, amazing success at the box office. Absolutely no question about it. All I'm saying is that any film opening with $115M is hard-pressed to display even average staying power, which is something Spider-Man nearly has done. If it had performed as many people thought it might, that $115M would have been about 35 to 40% of the total. Instead, it's only going to be about 28% or whatever. That's pretty frickin' amazing for such a huge opening.

I still find it hilarious that AOTC will end up having better staying power, though. :D

[CMJ]

From what I've observed over the years, I'd say 3 times opening weekend is average...and anything over that is good staying power. Five times the opening weekend gets you into the GREAT staying power range.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Mmmm, yeah 3 times would be below average, 4 times is pretty decent. Lets see, Harry Potter did a bit over 3 times, LOTR did near 6 times.

Personally, staying power is what impresses me. These huge fricking openings are getting beyond a joke. I still have trouble believeing Spider man did 114 million in three days.

[JonathanLB]

I wouldn't say that. 5 times is "good," 6 to 7 is "great." 4 is average, 3 is below average and rarely ever happens.

A film that opens with $10 million rarely only manages $30 million. That's pretty terrible. $10M, $4M week, $5M weekend 2, $2M week 2, $2.5M weekend, and it eventually limps to a rather pathetic $30M total. That's 50% declines across the board, hardly "average."

A Bug's Life I am pretty sure was my good example of "good" staying power -- 5 times gross.

A film that opens with $20 million and makes it to $100M has good staying power. A film that opens with $20M and makes it to $140 million or so has really amazing staying power.

$20M opening and $60M total is pretty darn bad, not average. Any film opening with $20M should reach $80M on average, and if it doesn't, it has displayed pretty bad staying power.

Very few films make more than 30% of their total from opening weekend, I mean that is not considered strong at all.

I wrote all of this in my book so I very firmly stick with it. It's just the way the box office works and I've seen other analysts say the same thing, so I'm not trying to be original, haha.

[CMJ]

See I HAVE seen a ton of films over the years open in that 10M range and struggle to 40M. Many films that open with 15M or so only make is to 45M. What is considered good staying power is a sliding scale now...as the reliance on the opening weekend has grown moe and more heavy in the last 10 or so years.

[JonathanLB]

To Marcus you listen!

Here, CMJ, trust me on this. I hate saying, "I am right," but I AM right about this!

Speed 2 : Cruise Control 06-13-97 09-11-97 48,076,583 16,158,942 2615 2625 33.61 18,315 Fox

You see 33.61? That is PERCENT -- did Speed 2 have average staying power? HELL NO! It fell like a goddamn rock. 3 times multiple is not at all average, it's below average significantly.

You are saying that Lost World, $72M opening, had average staying power? Uhhh, sorry, no. $229M total was not at all average, it was lousy. The film fell like a rock.

3 times = below average
4 times = average
5 times = good
6 times = excellent
7 times = phenomenal
8+ times = wow

Now of course that scale ONLY applies for films opening above a certain number. Clearly a movie that opens with $200,000 and makes $50 million because it expanded is not even in consideration here. We're talking most average films that open in 2,000+ theaters and have openings in the $10M range.

For instance, even Titanic's staying power cannot be compared to TPM's or Spider-Man's. Could Spider-Man have made 20 times its opening gross? Absolutely not. It would be physically impossible. Could Titanic make 20 times its opening gross? It did, so of course it could. Could TPM? Again, the answer is absolutely not.

So you have to compare "like openings," if you will, which is why I said that Spider-Man is still an amazing success and had what is considered good staying power because nobody would expect a film that opens that huge to hold up so well, i.e. "only slightly below average," when compared to films that opened with 10 times less money. A film that opens with $10M and makes $35 million is unimpressive. A film that opens with $100 million (or $115M like Spidey) and makes 3.5 times that, i.e. $350M, is pretty impressive obviously just by virtue of the fact that $350M puts you in the top 10 ever.

[JonathanLB]

I found the example I wanted for average staying power, ironically in Star Wars, lol.

Because it was a re-release, it obviously could not display amazing staying power based on word of mouth -- people already knew it was great and rushed out to see it, but significant enough business in the weeks ahead kept business at an average level. This was THE perfect example of average staying power, and in this case, "average" was rather remarkable given that re-releases are known to have bad staying power (they aren't meant to stick around, they are just meant to give people another chance to see them in a period of generally three weeks -- look no further than the time Disney re-released Little Mermaid for only 17 days or something)...

Star Wars - Special Edition 01-31-97 05-08-97 138,207,268 35,906,661 2104 2375 25.98 58,193 Fox

25.98%, or roughly "average" staying power. Perfect example there.