$20.68M estimated for AOTC's 3rd weekend

[Dutchy]

Down 57% from last weekend.

$9.28M estimated for Saturday and $6.03M for Sunday.

[Master Yoghurt]

Ugh, dreadful. Even worse than the 24M I predicted. It could do a little more than 6M on sunday though, if it is of any comfort.

[Master Yoghurt]

Not only was it a bad weekend for AOTC, but just about every movie had a bad percentage drop off:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2002/22.htm

[CMJ]

Begun this suicide watch has. ;)

Actually after the TERRIBLE Friday I was doubting it would even clear 20M this weekend. I hope the estimate holds...and it in fact does.

[Master Yoghurt]

Well, my 24M prediction was before friday's result. I agree, after a 5M friday, 20M allmost seem like an ok result. :x

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by CMJ
Begun this suicide watch has. ;)

:lol

[imported_QuiGonJ]

If Lucas does worry bout these things, he might have been better off opening the film wider.

I'd blame the media for the backlash part of it, and the horse race, but I'm also willing to think that there are other things like the DVD already being announced so folks know they can see it later, internet piracy, and that it's the fifth entry in the series.

One thing I know, the film is still excellent and fun to watch. :)

[CMJ]

I must agree with you there QuiGonJ...saw it again yesterday...was even more wonderful. :)

[Super Wookiee]

Well what do you expect. When you've got films like spiderman spending 50 million on advertising and playing on every crappy non digital, not even digital sound, non stadium seating, urin stained theatre in the country.

[CMJ]

Dude that has nothing to do with AOTC poor staying power.

[Super Wookiee]

sure it does. If people are not watching AOTC they are watching Spiderman. They are seeing Spiderman comercials on TV, not AOTC comercials (i've only see one of them on the air) Then you have the media bashing AOTC and praising Spiderman, which means your average joe is gonna go back to spiderman.

[CMJ]

Uhhh not really...Spidey was off like 50% this weekend too. Everybody went to "Sum of all Fears" this weekend.

[JMK]

Look, people saw TPM as much as they did because it was the first Star Wars movie to come out in 16 years. This time around, they like AotC better, but they've had their fill after a couple viewings. There's no one to blame for AotC's poor staying power, people saw it and now they want to see how it all ends. The big question for box office buffs is will it even make it to 300M?

[CMJ]

I'm starting to have my doubts....

[JMK]

How many people here said it was laughable that AotC not makes it to 300M?

[CMJ]

Man...I don't know...alot of us. :) Even I thought it was guarateed to make that much. Hell even Dutchy thought so too.

[JMK]

You know, as much as we all think its a great movie, and as much as that is really the only thing that matters, the fact that we brag so much about Star Wars' box office dominance, we are never going to live this down. All we'll hear is how much of a dismal failure it is.

And by we, I mean all Star Wars fans.

[CMJ]

I know...it's a BITTER pill to swallow. I'm gonna have a hard time having both FOTR and HP make more than AOTC.

[Marcus Telcontar]

HP.... well that annoys the hell out of me.

FOTR.... errrr...... I'll shut up now :p

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will make at least 300, it only needs to make another 68 million and come on I think it will do that easily, it could still make it to 350 but it would need to have some smaller drops, if it can have drops around 30% that will help. Also the good news I guess is that Spiderman will not beat TPM, it will make it to 400 but won't get much farther than that. Also I am thinking the weather must have been great this weekend across the country (it was here, a lot of people are going to the lake and beach and stuff) also a lot of schools had graduation this weekend (just about every one in the south probably did, not sure about anywhere else) so I think that hurt the box office this weekend.

[dbn]

I thought for sure with all the good talks with the people that has watched it, would boots its numbers for the weekends. Until the start of this weekend box office, I believed we had a movie that could have make over 525 million at the box office. As of now, I will be happy to see it crawl over the 300 million mark. I thought we were sitting on a ticking time bomb ready to go off, and see the money trickle in over the summer. It still can happen, but I think after this weekend I am starting to blink a little. I think FOX and Lucas did a poor job getting people excited about watching AotC's this time around, and could have done a better job exciting more than the fan base. I still have not seen one, not one tv spot to get people excited to see it. I know a few of you have, and say it was a good one. Who knows, may be Lucas really means it when he said: "I do not care if my movies makes money or not."

[Jinn Fizz]

*warms up for another rendition of Que Sera, Sera* :D

[flagg]

Since we have still have the biggest fanbase of all films, the repeat viewing factor has to slow the descent sometime, right? Please . . .? :)

[JonathanLB]

"And by we, I mean all Star Wars fans."

Yeah. :(

The success and dominance of the Star Wars films at the box office is a point of pride for us Star Wars fans. Our movies are the most successful of all time. It's what we have above the Star Trek fans and every other franchise. We are kings among fans :)

Even with AOTC's exceptionally disappointing performance, TPM annihilated HP and LOTR, at least here in the states.

Also, if AOTC does clear $300 million, like maybe it can make it to $315 million or so (as was said, I seriously have my doubts now), then its international gross very well could be enough to beat Spider-Man's worldwide total. Box Office Mojo thinks so, and I think so too.

For Spider-Man to best $431.1 million will be difficult at this point, I think. It is going to continue to lose theaters in a more rapid fashion than before as the new major films hit theaters. Pretty soon you've got The Bourne Identity, Scooby Doo, then followed by Minority Report, and before long there simply are not enough screens to keep Spider-Man (and soon after, not enough to keep AOTC either probably). Spider-Man already lost 230 theaters.

Anyway, as far as predicting the final gross for AOTC, you cannot say, "Well if it keeps falling at 57%..." Yeah well Spider-Man never fell at 49% before, so are you going to use that number to predict its final gross? I dunno about that. I'd think AOTC would fall more in the range of 45 to 50% from now on, not 57%. Spider-Man will fall at more like 45% too, not 49%. The reason I don't say Spider-Man will fall at more like 40% is because I really feel the loss of theaters is going to prevent it from enjoying the same declines as before, which came with less competition (weekend 1 to 2) and with more theaters (weekend 3 to 4).

Obviously, I could be wrong, but I am definitely thinking that AOTC is going to enjoy slightly better declines in the mid-to-upper 40's, and not in the 50's. That's not exactly good, lol, but it's more average instead of just plain crappy.

57% is crappy. There is no other explanation. You can't write it off as, "Well, it's ok," no it isn't. It's lousy. 50% is bad. 57% is plain lousy. The Lost World fell 69% after its opening weekend, which really sucked badly. Well this is also after Memorial Day weekend and the movie is down 57%, despite the fact that most people really enjoy it. At least, more so than Lost World according to every poll I have ever seen. So what gives? Who knows. :(

The declines of every film in the top ten REALLY suck, though, I mean I'm not just saying that to make AOTC's fall look better, but as I said before this weekend, "this weekend is gonna suck." It does suck. It's never a good weekend at the box office. -40% for Stallion and that is "good" by comparison? Ouch! DreamWorks cannot make their money back if that film keeps falling at 40%. 60% for Enough, 66% for New Guy? Man that hurts. Unfaithful got toasted too. Hell look at About A Boy! Here is a movie that has REALLY been holding up well, including in international release, and it falls 48%? That's not representative of its staying power. It will not continue to fall 48%. I would venture to guess it only falls 30% next weekend.

I can't help but feel my bad luck has rubbed off onto Star Wars, LOL. Frickin' A!

[Marcus Telcontar]

Oh, Lucas really doesnt care how much they make, I can be sure of that. What would he need to care, anyway? Not like he's going broke soon :)

[CMJ]

It's truly amazing...we might not even have the number THREE grosser of the year. I could see us being #4 as of right now. Come November and December I'm gonna be depressed as I watch TT and the new HP begin their BO journey's up the charts.

[JonathanLB]

Ouch, that does hurt. That has never come close to happening before. Every SW film was EASILY #1 of the year.

TTT will beat AOTC, I think, HP2 will not quite do it. It'll make a lot, like $250 million, but as Dutchy said: SEQUEL!!!! One word. It will not be able to do as well.

With LOTR it's totally different because the quality of the first film was incredible, the dang thing received a best picture nomination, it WON best film from the AFI! The first film did not open huge. Make no mistake, it was a fairly modest opening for a big blockbuster, and it THRIVED for months and months because people loved the film and many people couldn't get enough. I know a ton of people who saw it 4-10 times even, and it's 3 hours long. TTT will probably not open really huge, it'll probably slightly outdo FOTR, but it will also have very good staying power.

I think LOTR, the entire trilogy, will perform very similarly. I could be wrong, but I see them all reaching about the same gross.

[CMJ]

I think both TTT and the new HP will perform much like their "originals" did...and the sequel factor will be toned down. It's really early, I know, but I think both franchises will make enjoy similar results for the 2nd film.

[JonathanLB]

Well, I think they will be *fairly* similar but you think HP2 will open with $90 million too? I sure don't. I think it will open with less and it will make less.

It will still do very well, which is to say $250 million shouldn't be difficult.

[CMJ]

Will the next one open to 90M? I don't know...always in motion is the future. ;)

Ask me sooner to the release date when I see how much of buildup it's had. :)

[Lady Vader]

I say we do something radical and crazy-like and pick a weekend where we ALL go to see the movie for the WHOLE DAY (all 7 or whatnot shows)! :lol Just watch us screw with the box office counts for THAT weekend! :p

*Skips off happily looking for some Mountain Dew Red Alert.*

:crack

[Jedieb]

Holy crap, what a drop. Spidey's drop makes me think TPM is safe, but $400M should still be reachable. With the number of strong releases coming up I think +40% declines are in store for both Spidey and AOTC.

What this holds for EP3 is anybody's guess. But I think it puts a damper on any dreams of a $600M+ gross.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well, I never thought that there was much of a chance for it to reach 600 (Ep3 I mean) its dark tone will hurt it, sure it could make 400 if there is a huge emphasis on the last Star Wars movie ever kind of thing, that would at least help in terms of the diehards, it will also depend a lot on competition which at this point in time who knows what will be out.

[Jedieb]

I never thought EP3 had a shot either, but some people thought inflation and "the last SW movie" effect would give it a shot. I think we're looking at $275-$375. $400M will be pretty tough to reach.

[Jedi Master Carr]

400 I think is about as much as it could make, and everything would have to go perfect, reviews would have to be a little better, lack of competition, more screens etc. And its really too early to tell if any of those factors will be close. The Last Star Wars movie should help it some though.

[BUFFJEDI]

I just don't get it.It blow's my little mind that AOTC is falling so far down the line.Can anyone tell me WHY a great movie like AOTC is failing ??? I JUST DON"T UNDERSTAND!!!!!!!!!! I have turned a new leaf and all BUT I'd like to beat the hell out of someone to get this Frustration out of me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:headbash :cry :headbash :cry :headbash :cry

[JonathanLB]

It is not failing really, it just isn't holding up as we had hoped.

If you just purely look at the final gross, though, let's even say it only makes it to $275 million, that is still an awesome gross for a movie. That would make it one of the 15 to 20 highest grossing movies of all time I think. Yeah, it IS BELOW what we all wanted to see, but let's just pretend we are Star Trek fans here. The only time we'd ever see $275 million is if you added the last 8 movies together and multiplied by 10. LOL, j/k, but you get my point. I mean talk about spoiled, we are the kings of the box office. Our saga has ruled the box office throne, and we still do. All 5 movies will be in the top 20 of all time. That is 25% of the total, with just this saga. That number will hold pretty well too because these films will all see a re-release in theaters after 2005, probably in early 2007 is my guess. That will keep 5 of them at least in the top 20. Who knows, if Episode III really catches on and makes a solid $410 million to $450 million, it could remain near the top for many, many years. You know ANH is hardly going anywhere. 25 years later, it has lost ONE space, from #1 to #2. Oh gee, it's falling so fast, haha. Nothing is coming that close to ANH. E.T. got marginally close I suppose, but even a re-release of that thing couldn't push it ahead. We're not going to see another E.T. re-release any time soon, i.e. anytime in the next two decades, yet I would bet several thousand dollars we get an ANH re-release within 5 years of Episode III playing out in theaters. I would also bet several thousand dollars that the re-release of ANH in theaters makes $50 million or more, which would push it even farther up into the box office record books and make it pretty far out of reach for any new release, short of another Titanic phenomenon. Anyway, in time I think ANH will pass Titanic. I've always said that. It could take 50 years, but it will happen. If it doesn't, you'll all be too old to remember me saying that so no harm done ;) LOL.

I am definitely not trying to put a positive "spin" here on the numbers -- they disappoint me too, but all things considered I do not think any box office analyst would say that AOTC has failed. They would just say it didn't hold up very well with a lot of competition and failed to perform as well as TPM or the other SW films. Eh, too bad, but AOTC rules and that's what matters. The fact that not as many people have seen it in theaters really IS their loss! It's not our loss. We are in on the situation, we have seen what a dang awesome film it is, they are the ones missing out. It's their problem, not ours, they'll regret it when they are seeing this awesome film on their stupid 19 inch TV sets and we all are sitting back remembering the good old days when we saw it 10+ times on a GIANT screen ;)

[Marcus Telcontar]

You are pretty right actually. For any other movie, AOTC is doing pretty damn well. It's only in comparision to the other SW movies it pales.

[JonathanLB]

That is true, next to the other SW movies it pales at the box office, but that is definitely a testament to the amazing success of the other films. This film is still immensely successful, but the other SW films were, well wow, all easily the highest grossing movies of their years. That's a tough act to follow. I guess sooner or later, that had to be broken unfortunately. Let's hope maybe Episode III will be able to retake it.

[CMJ]

We caught a BIT of a break. It hit 21.0M for the weekend.

[dbn]

Damn I was really hoped it would have made up for its 6 million dollar opening blunder this weekend;)

[JonathanLB]

That is a tiny break at least, I mean it is not LOWER than estimates, which is good...

[CMJ]

On the bright side "Spider-Man" was slightly overestimated. ;)

[Admiral Lebron]

I'd like to note, Undercover Brother grossed a higher average per theater than spidey did. Meaning, the only thing keeping Spidey in the game is theater count.

[Jedieb]

AOTC is now about $58M behind Spidey's pace for the same day of their perspective runs. It was around $37M at the end of it's 2nd weekend.

[CMJ]

Hopefully it's only off around 40% this weekend, which would be nice. I think after this weekend we'll start losing some theatres which will hurt.

"Spider-Man" will probably lose a fair number of theatres this weekend, I'd say it's gonna be tough going for both films from now on.

[JonathanLB]

Well, I don't think we will lose as many theaters, but we will lose some screens absolutely.

As a Star Wars fan, I'm really glad Evergreen has 3 screens playing AOTC right now. As a businessman, I say it should be on ONE screen right now. Any movie in the low $20 million range doesn't deserve two screens at a 13-plex... but then again Spider-Man doesn't deserve its two screens either, so I guess there really isn't anything to push the films out of their auditoriums yet.

I think the two new releases this week will likely push Star Wars down to two screens, Spider-Man to one at my theater. That is what I would do if I were them, but then again I don't exactly know how well each film is doing at this exact theater. Perhaps Star Wars does deserve two screens at Evergreen for a while longer.

I guess I would say that AOTC will be at Evergreen through mid-July, or I am hoping it is there that long at least. I can only get to probably 30 viewings by then, but I can maybe get in 10 at Valley, a dollar theater. I am still going for 50, reality be damned, it may be possible. :) I just need The Force to help me out here. I nearly got stuck at 34 for TPM, but still finished at 50, so it's very possible.

[CMJ]

I still believe in 300M. I'm SO hoping maybe we're only down a respectable number(20-30%) starting on Tuesday. Hopefully we'll find our legs...keep the hope alive. ;)

[JMK]

You know what I'm afraid of? And at this rate, it will happen before it's all said and done?
The headline that reads "Star Wars is an old and tired franchise". Then I will lose it.

[CMJ]

That would PISS me off too JMK. :) I might firebomb something.

[JonathanLB]

No. Anger is the path of the Dark Side! Do not give into your anger.

Think of whoever writes that, for a second. ANH is going to be out on DVD eventually, that's not my opinion, it's a fact. lol. When ANH comes out on DVD, with the original trilogy (ESB and ROTJ), it will CRUSH all sales records ever established. Then who is going to look and feel like an absolute fool for going out on a limb that breaks off over a lava lake? Exactly.

Star Wars is not dead, we all know that, people love Star Wars! Sure not everyone went out to see this film, but who wants to bed they're going to rent it still? I do! I think everyone will see AOTC just as basically everyone saw TPM. I talked to a lot of people who actually admitted to not seeing TPM in theaters, but said they rented it later. Too bad, I wish we had their theatrical support, but hey, they did see it...

[Jedi Master Carr]

Didn't the theaters guarentee that they would play AOTC for 6 weeks or something? If that is the case then I think we won't lose theaters maybe some screens. Spiderman's screen count should really come down, I bet it will drop, it could fall out of the top 5 with two new movies opening, but I think it will barely stay in it. I still think AOTC will make it to 300, I don't see it droping 50% every weekend.