$5.3M estimated for AOTC's 3rd Friday

[Dutchy]

Hmmm... that seems awfully low. A 59% drop from last Friday.

TPM grossed $8.3M on the same Friday and dropped 38% from its previous Friday.

[Dutchy]

It'll probably make barely over $20M for the weekend.

Oh, The Sum of all Fears came in 1st place with an estimated $9.6M.

[Jinn Fizz]

Que sera, sera :angel

The media had already written AOTC off as a box office failure when it didn't beat Spider-man on opening weekend, and they'll continue to do so when the cumulative BO also doesn't beat Spidey. How odd, though, that a movie that will end up with over $300 million at the domestic box office will be considered a "failure." :p

I'm kinda surprised that Undercover Brother didn't do a little better, each time I've seen the preview before AOTC, I've found it gets funnier and funnier. Maybe it's more one of those "I'll rent it because it'll be a guilty pleasure" kind of movie for a lot of people.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It could double that on Saturday and make 10 and then make about 8 on Sunday still that is only 23 or 24 which isn't really great.

[Jedieb]

That's a huge drop from the previous Friday. Granted, lots of kids had last Friday off, but I expected a stronger hold. If AOTC drops around 50% then it may barely make it to $300M. Something none of us expected. At the rate that AOTC is falling, Spidey could end up passing him on the daily rankings in a couple of weeks as it chugs past $400M.

[CMJ]

Man...that hurts. The suicide watch is on. ;)

Seriously, I never thought it would drop like THIS. Man...very frustrating.

[Admiral Lebron]

Well -DO-NOT-SWEAR--DO-NOT-SWEAR--DO-NOT-SWEAR--DO-NOT-SWEAR-. We'll never hear the end of this.

[Jinn Fizz]

I've always pretty much been in the "screw the box office" category, because ultimately it doesn't mean a thing.

What does matter is that I love AOTC. I've seen it 5 times, will be seeing it for the 6th time tomorrow, and hopefully I'll manage to get a dozen or so viewings in before it finally leaves theatrical release.

And, on a grander scale, AOTC has satisfied fans. Satisfied them immensely. All the polls I've seen at different websites, while not scientific, have all had the same results...fans are extremely happy with this movie and rank it as the first or second best of the entire series.

So what means more in the end? How much money it made, or how happy the fans were? As far as I'm concerned, the happiness of the fans is what comes first.

Just my two credits. :)

[JonathanLB]

You could see this coming, though. :( I said it yesterday...

TPM fell 33% or so during the weekdays of the week before, then 36% on the weekend, so AOTC fell like 53% and you figure the number would be higher for the weekend (if it had the same pattern as TPM). So... I figured this would look ugly.

But honestly how do you explain such AWFUL staying power for a movie people seem to love? I'm very perplexed. I can understand 40% declines throughout, sorta, maybe, but not 50% declines. Not for a movie with great word of mouth. Wow, very confusing. TPM represented a rare case of a movie doing incredibly well despite the biggest media backlash I have ever seen (against a movie), now AOTC is also accomplishing a (dubious) first: great word of mouth, lousy staying power.

I was going to say before that AOTC had just displayed average staying power, but actually it's looking more and more like it'll be actually below average staying power to bad staying power.

[Dutchy]

1 word: sequel.

[JonathanLB]

Dutchy that never made ESB or ROTJ fall like this, though. So what gives? ROTJ had a much harsher critical reaction (reviews were about 2-to-1 in favor of "this movie sucks," lol), yet as a second sequel still made a TON of money.

Jesus I'm starting to pray that AOTC just clears $300M.

If it finished at like $350M I would have been somewhat ok with that, all things considered, and now it's like.... uhh... hmm...

I will not reach 50 viewings of this movie, that much I can almost guarantee. It will not be in theaters long enough for me to get to 40 even. I maybe could see it 30 times... :(

[Dutchy]

Yup, it's falling fast, but we don't know yet how fast exactly.

I've always said and expected that it would not do as good as TPM, though.

[Darth23]

Are you talking about modern day reviews or the reviews for ROTJ from 1983?

[JonathanLB]

1983. Modern reviews are actually quite good, most people and critics really like ROTJ now. Although critics still seem bent on the "fact" that it's the worst of the trilogy, which isn't true at all, but let them think what they want. With the SE release, ROTJ got mostly very good reviews...

It was only back in 1983 that the reviews sucked (33% or something on the Tomatometer, hehe). Then for ESB they were pretty lousy back in 1980 too. Some were really good, some were pretty darn bad. Then in 1997, I think an astonishing 97% of reviewers gave it a good review, which is higher than even the first Star Wars film. Now explain that... lol! :)

[JMK]

This is mortifying. I don't understand how come this is happening.:shootin

[flagg]

The worst part of this is that Lucasfilm and Fox might actually think that people didn't like AOTC because of the quick drop-offs. Episode III will still be made, but we might see some big changes in the content and marketting. A Celine Dion song at the end? I dread to think :)
Come on people! We need to get all the non-fans who have avoided AOTC into theaters. Tell em it has a fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes - that oughta do the trick!

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Thats it. I'm standing outside the theatre and "selling" the movie to people. Maybe I'll wear a sandwich sign...and nothing else... ^_^;

j/k!

[Jedieb]

I have one thing to say to Jinn Fizz:
:thumbup :thumbup

In the end, I don't care about the drop offs, or how close or far past we get to $300M. I LOVED that movie! That's all that matters. I didn't think it was the greatest movie ever made. I just know that I was very happy with it. It more than satisfied my expectations. As for the B.O., I don't believe that Lucas cares. Remember, he thought TPM would only gross around $300M. He fully expected these subsequent and darker films to make LESS than the earlier films. So I don't believe he's going to do a single thing differently to try to make more money at the B.O. He's going to make the movie he wants to, regardless of what the B.O. figures say.

I actually expect EP3 to make about the same that AOTC does. Maybe a little less because of it's dark and downbeat nature. And I don't care. I want to see Anakin's fall told the way that Lucas intends without ANY consideration as to how broaden its appeal so it can make more money. SCREW the money!

[Jedieb]

I've heard backlash outside of the media. I've heard people at the theater, people at work, people at stores. Not EVERYONE loves AOTC. Some like it, some are ambivalent, some hated it. I've heard girls trash the love story while they've stood in line to buy tickets to see Spiderman for the 3rd time. The media isn't responsible for these declines. Did they do any different when TPM was released? Did that hurt TPM? There are a lot of different factors to explain this drop;

Strong competition, especially from Spiderman
No 16 year old build up
Sequel factor
Negative Reviews
Love story not playing well with parts of the female audience
Darker story not as kid friendly

It's not just ONE thing, it's a combination of all of those and a few that we could probably think of if we put our heads to it. But remember, we're still talking about a movie that's going to gross around $300M!! I don't care if it doesn't match the performance of previous SW movies. Before I got caught up in the excitement I thought this would happen. Now that it has I'm not really that bummed out. I got a better movie, better toys, and my boy laughed and giggled with delight when he saw Yoda fight. I'm happy!:D

[imported_QuiGonJ]

And I as I like to think, Spidey 5 will never come close to AOTC numbers... no other series has done this well, ever. :)

[JonathanLB]

I do not believe critical reviews every hurt or help a major movie. I believe they can help a really small film to get wider recognition, absolutely, but not a movie like AOTC. Not to mention the reviews were not negative, they were for the most part good to excellent. The reviews were better than for any previous Star Wars film except ANH, on first release, at least.

I think the competition has hurt this time around, though, I don't see how anyone could deny that. The competition is just harsher this time, even though last time the later summer competition was very competitive, TPM had a few weeks before anything really hard-hitting came out. Spider-Man was already a major force even when AOTC opened, so that was competitive film #1...

I loved AOTC, it's the greatest movie ever made. :) Along with the other four SW films, of course.

Basically everyone I have talked to either really loved it or found it quite enjoyable. I know a few people who didn't think the love story worked very well, but they still really enjoyed it. As in, I think they'd recommend it to others.

Perhaps the good word of mouth simply doesn't matter this time around? I mean maybe people say, "Yes, I heard it is good.... But I do not plan to see it in theaters."

I would expect to see amazing, amazing VHS and DVD sales/rentals numbers. Any film of this size that has not been as widely viewed as it should have been is going to attract A LOT of people to video stores who didn't get a chance to catch it in theaters.

Thing is, you can't lie and say the box office doesn't matter as a Star Wars fan. It DOES matter because darnit we won't be seeing this movie in August if the theaters pull it! And they will pull it. I want to see it all summer long, I don't know about you all, but now I am not going to have that chance because the American public is so wretchedly stupid. How pitiful. Well I will try to make it to 30 viewings, but that means I will not cross 100 total SW viewings until I see Episode III in theaters. Bah...

[Jedieb]

That's a very good point QuiGon. Will ANY #5 movie do this well? I think not. I say, sit back, watch Anakin fall, and enjoy the ride!

[Jedieb]

Some people would say seeing a movie 30 times in one summer was stupid. At the very least, it would explain why someone went an entire summer dateless. ;) The money doesn't matter to me, I won't be seeing the movie in August and most SW fans won't feel the impulse to either. I got a good movie, that's all I care about. Most other fans would agree. It's just money.

[CMJ]

Yeah...I know for the most part money doesn't matter, but this is a pretty upsetting development.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Then why is it doing so well overseas? That is what is surprising to me, are American dumb and what a quick thrill, LOTR did better overseas and it was a dark deep movie. I still think it will make it to 350, I just have a feeling it will, but I guess we will have to wait and see.

[CMJ]

Man I'm worrying it won't clear 300M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is why I am hear I keep thinking it will, hey with Jon and Buff seeing it, I think it should :p

[Master Yoghurt]

5.3 million on friday.. ouch. That is even lower than I predicted, I thought it would make 6M or so. This seems to be a crappy weekend for box office indeed. Every movie except Sum of All Fears is doing rather poorly.

[Jedieb]

Do we know how well it's going to hold up overseas yet? I mean, we've seen big opening numbers, but we saw a big weekend here in the U.S. also. I think we need to wait and see how the declines hold up in the next month. I think mojo made a good point. It seems which ever movie opened first between AOTC and Spidey had a huge advantage over the other.

And has the U.S. gotten stupid over the last quarter century? Were we smart back in 77, then suddenly stupid in the summer of 02? ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it only droped 34% in England I am not sure about the rest of Europe really but I think it was less than 50% in its second weekend, plus I think the drops are less in Europe because there are less theaters making it taking longer to get tickets. Also something to consder do you think people are now more reluctant to see darker films like LOTR and AOTC since 9/11? People might not like the scenes of Anakin slaughtering people and becoming an evil menace, or the dark deceptions of treachery by Saurman or how Frodo because ensnared by the Ring. It just makes me wonder that is all. Also I have heard good word of mouth too, I don't know nobody who has seen it that didn't like it or love it that is what preplexes me. I do realize that probably kids are going to see it in the same numbers as TPM and that could also have something to do with the declines.

[BUFFJEDI]

i foresee A long stay for AOTC, I really in my heart think that it will CATCH On ,If you will.The movie is great !!!!It's all you could ask for it will creep past 400 mil.If I have to drag it by Yoda's ears!!!!!!!!!!!

[JonathanLB]

I think MOST Star Wars fans probably would see AOTC in August, at least most major fans. I know that for TPM most fans got in a few viewings before it left theaters. Why do you think it was still around then? People who had never seen it just happened to want to go 12 weeks into the theatrical run? No. It was people like me, Buff, and the rest of the die-hards keeping that movie in theaters. Every showing I went to that late in the run it was pretty obvious that people had seen TPM already. I mean when you get people talking about the movie beforehand and they obviously know what they are talking about, and then a few people quoting dialogue, lol, it's pretty evident you're not the only one who came back for another helping ;)

Most die-hard fans didn't just see TPM a few times after the opening and then neglect to see it again. They went over and over again and most of them spread their viewings out somewhat at least. I'd say everyone, except probably me, had their viewings a little more front-loaded, but that's to be expected. Same is true of me and AOTC now. At first of course I had to see it way more, and now I find time for 3 per week, hopefully...

With TPM, though, I saw it 8 times in May, but I think it was about 13 times in August, much more in August than any other month yet it had been open for a while, then I saw it 8 times in December and 8 more times in January 2000, an entirely different year! So you're dang right there are PLENTY of us who want to see AOTC in August. Just because you personally don't doesn't reflect the majority of us die-hard SW fans. Die-hard has to equal anyone who sees the movies over 10 times in theaters. 5, 6 times, come on. I got to that by the end of the first weekend, puh-lease. "Oh gee some people have a life." Yeah and it'd kill you to see a new SW movie 10 times? No. That's not much time at all. See it once opening day, twice opening weekend, and one time every weekend after and you should hit 10 without problems. Look at buff, he's at 18 already. It's easy! I have to go see all of the rest of the stupid movies that come out on top of trying to see AOTC, so that makes it even harder and I'm still at 12.

"At the very least, it would explain why someone went an entire summer dateless."

LOL, no you don't meet new people during the summer. It is not possible for most people in high school or college without jobs. You don't meet new people at your house, and you don't go up and talk to total strangers at the video store or the movie store. THAT explains why someone would go an entire summer dateless, but anyway I have never dated anyone. I do not actively waste my time seeking people out, either. That's not how you find friends, it's not how you should find a girl either. It must occur naturally and anything you let happen naturally is going to result much better than something you try to force, i.e. dating service or acting desperate.

Did I go up and ask my friends if they wanted to be friends? No. It was a period of many months and even years where I got to know them in class or whatever else and then eventually we started hanging out and after that, what do you know, we are best friends. It happens naturally. Only a loser forces the issue, and only a loser acts desperate. Better to be dateless than desperate, if you ask me. I'll retain my pride, thank you. Seeing Star Wars movies way more times than all you saps, spare Buff, is what makes ME Jonathan L. Bowen and YOU just other Star Wars fans ;) Muahahaha. Just razzing you :D

[Marcus Telcontar]

Ouch ouch puch....

Pessimistic I was about the B.O. of AOTC, but I didnt think it would go this not so well.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedieb
There are a lot of different factors to explain this drop;

Negative Reviews


AOTC's reviews were BETTER than TPM's, and they didn't hurt the latter's at all, so I don't buy the negative reviews factor for AOTC at all.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Well it only droped 34% in England I am not sure about the rest of Europe really but I think it was less than 50% in its second weekend

In Holland it dropped 33% in its 2nd weekend.

[JonathanLB]

33% is good. Nothing at all wrong with that... wtf, lol? Is your country smarter than the U.S. Dutchy? Dang I'm moving there... Screw this! You guys can get blown to kingdom come in your big USA cities, I'm going to live with Dutchy in Holland. Wait.... haha, j/k ;)

"AOTC's reviews were BETTER than TPM's, and they didn't hurt the latter's at all, so I don't buy the negative reviews factor for AOTC at all."

Amen to that. I don't buy into that at all either, I think Dutchy is right. Sorry but the reviews for AOTC were way better than TPM on the whole and TPM did excellent, despite mixed reviews. I think very few people make up their mind based on reviews for a major movie like this. As I said, perhaps for small independent movies people read the reviews, and I do that myself too. I have nothing else to go on for a smaller film, so if I hear that critics are loving something, i.e. In the Bedroom, I go see it. Usually it ends up sucking, i.e. In the Bedroom, lol, but I have to use the critics' reviews to figure out what smaller films to see... I cannot see them all, not since I don't even make very much money at all.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
33% is good.

Yup, though it was the WORST drop of the Top 10 (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/netherlands/).


Is your country smarter than the U.S. Dutchy?

Depends, over all I'd say... oh, wait, that was a joke, right? ;)

[JonathanLB]

It was probably the largest drop because it was the largest film and coming off a huge weekend, or at least that'd be my guess. I'd say your top 10 is doing pretty darn well, hehe ;)

Jesus, LOTR made an absolute killing in your country. It annihilated the other films I see up there pretty badly. LOTR did not outdo A Beautiful Mind or Panic Room that badly here in the U.S. I thought ABM made like $150 million or more, right? I guess I failed to keep up the exact total, but I am pretty sure it made about half of what LOTR did or more, and in your country LOTR just b**ch slapped that thing into the middle of next week. :)

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Jesus, LOTR made an absolute killing in your country. It annihilated the other films I see up there pretty badly.

Yeah! It opened on the same day as in the USA (December 19th-ish), and as you can see it JUST dropped out of the Top 10. It was number one (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/netherlands/archive/) for 13 straight weeks and 14 weeks in total (it went to number 1 again for one more week after The Time Machine had knocked it off).

[JonathanLB]

That's incredible. What did Titanic make in your country again...?

It seems to me that AOTC is facing pretty weak competition in its foreign openings and second weekends compared to the U.S.

I mean, Spider-Man made more than 50% of AOTC's first weekend gross, playing against it here in the U.S.

But look at Australia. Even though AOTC fel 49% in its second weekend, it made more than 5 times more than the 2nd place film. Nothing really challenged it at all. Not so here in the States.

Same with your country. AOTC made way more than the 2nd film even in its 2nd weekend.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
That's incredible. What did Titanic make in your country again...?

I'm not sure... I think it was something with 51 million, but I don't remember if it was in guilders (our former currency) or in dollars. Well, if in guilders it would be $20M, so at all means much more than LOTR's $12M.

[JonathanLB]

$20M is probably right, LOL. Wow that is a lot of money for such a small country. I knew you had to get to $1.8 billion worldwide with some pretty big numbers ;)

[Dutchy]

Hehe, yeah, Spider-Man doubled our all time top grossing movie in just 1 single day. :p

[JonathanLB]

Good comparison, hehe, man...

Well in some countries Titanic is actually being challenged, like in the U.K. both HP and LOTR came pretty darn close, both in 2nd and 3rd place. But in France, jesus, this new Asterix and Obelix movie (I have seen some of these comics and stuff in my French classes) is #2, but it's barely made 50% of what Titanic did. Dang, that is just impossible. I have no idea how that movie did so well. U.K. moviegoers do not consider it the best movie, nor do U.S. moviegoers, yet it is #1 in basically every country. Amazing how that works, well again, box office is just how many people see a film, not what they actually thought of it. Obviously most people very much enjoyed Titanic, but, lol... It's numbers are a bit absurd.

I remember seeing one time, I think, that in Brazil TPM became like the 2nd highest grossing movie ever there, but its total gross was about 35% to 40% of what Titanic had. I mean, I don't see how one movie can outdistance everything else by a multiple of about 3. That did not happen in the U.S. Titanic won easily, but other films were still pretty "close" at least (60%+ anyway...).

[Jedieb]

AOTC's reviews were BETTER than TPM's, and they didn't hurt the latter's at all, so I don't buy the negative reviews factor for AOTC at all.
Did I say it was the only reason? It's just one of many. I was in fact downplaying the impact of the media and negative reviews. But they do have SOME impact, not a big one I believe, but a small one. I believe the other factors I listed were much more important.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedieb
Did I say it was the only reason? It's just one of many. I was in fact downplaying the impact of the media and negative reviews. But they do have SOME impact, not a big one I believe, but a small one. I believe the other factors I listed were much more important.

Did I say you said it was the only reason? Nope, I only said it is no reason at all. Besides that I said the reviews aren't even bad, so let alone it being a negative factor.

[Jedieb]

RT has it at fresh right now with a 60% rating. It's right on the borderline. But there are plently of negative reviews by mainstream critics and magazines (Ebert & EW) to take a few shots at it. I don't see how you can say it has "no" effect. There are probably some casual moviegoers that may look at some of those reviews and simply wait for cable or video, choose Spidey instead, or simply skip AOTC alltogether. A review could especially sway a casual viewer that was dissapointed by TPM. Of all the factors I listed I think the 'negative reviews' is the weakest, but it does play some part. I've got Ebert & Roper on now. They both trashed Enough. They slammed it so hard that I would use their review as ammunition against my wife if she tried to drag me to see it. I can picture the same thing happening in reverse with a wife/girlfriend trying to talk her husband/boyfiend out of seeing AOTC. Remember, I'm not talking about a SWFan, just a casual movie goer.

[JonathanLB]

See I don't agree with that, because if you think the negative reviews have some effect, are you saying the REALLY POSITIVE ones (and there are many) do NOT matter? I think the net effect is 0. The good reviews draw some people to theaters who may not have gone otherwise, and the bad reviews may hurt a bit. It's not any negative or positive net effect.

[Jedieb]

The only way your idea works is if it's an even 50/50 split. They can't completely cancel each other out. Either way, it's still a weak effect, I never said it was a strong one. All of those other factors are taking a much greater toll on AOTC. I think the biggest ones are the sequel factor and Spidey.

[Lady Vader]

You're porbably right, Jedieb. But ya never know... there's still time for a miracle. :)

On another note, I still haven't seen Spiderman. I'm a goooooooooood girl! :lol

[JonathanLB]

I think my theory works better than yours, seeing as AOTC is ahead 60-40 in reviews apparently. Enough of that, though, your point is taken and I am not trying to prove you wrong, only suggesting the idea that the reviews would roughly cancel each other out, especially given how many critics (even ones listed as "rotten") declared AOTC much better than TPM, which may very well have helped get a few borderline people to come to theaters.

May I suggest a rather radical possibility? I am not saying this is true, or that I believe this, or even that it's a great theory, only something to consider. That's all.

I think it is possible that the opening of Spider-Man stole a lot of thunder from AOTC and that the existence of a movie with already phenomenal box office power actually directly cuts into another phenomenon. In other words, I am saying it is possible that two phenomenon's cannot co-exist and that indeed the first to strike, much like a tactical nuclear strike to disable another country's arsenal, is going to have the massive advantage. Both Russia and the U.S. were incredibly powerful during the Cold War. Despite many weaknesses for the Soviet Union, they had and have enough nuclear weapons to target every significant city in the United States, not just major ones. If they had fired first, regardless of the superiority of the U.S. military, we would have been crippled and our ability to strike back may have been similarly weakened.

With Spider-Man, it took a first strike here in the U.S. that simply made it nearly impossible for AOTC to duplicate its performance because only one such phenomenal film can open within the same month. It just was too close together.

Now look at the international territories. This theory cannot be proven yet, but look how well AOTC has held up in some countries where it opened before Spider-Man, such as the U.K. Will Spider-Man be able to strike AOTC now, or will its draw be diminished because it was unable to strike first as it did in the U.S.? My theory is the latter, that it will be permanently damaged in its grossing ability because a phenomenon already opened within roughly the same time frame. I believe results will show, when the dust clears, that countries where AOTC opened first, it performed much stronger, and countries where Spider-Man was already active cut into AOTC's potential for success.

That is just a theory, but it's somewhat along the lines of what B.O. Mojo was saying, and I think it has some credibility. I think competition at the box office is a key factor and I firmly believe that Titanic used a dearth of competition to clear $600 million. Had it been challenged with a stronger slate of films, even an opening of Hannibal proportions, it would have still almost certainly become the highest grossing film ever, yet its gross may have been more in the line of $500 to $550 million. I believe a similar lack of competition helped ANH to become the highest grossing film ever at the time, actually.

Spider-Man was unchallenged in its second weekend. It truly faced nothing that could even offer a little bit of competition, yet Spider-Man was already out and had momentum when AOTC opened. That momentum largely prevented AOTC from doing the type of business that may have been possible had AOTC actually been the first major summer blockbuster. Remember how TPM accounted for something around 70% of the box office on its opening weekend? Well Spider-Man made more than half of what AOTC did on its opening weekend, which couldn't have helped, I don't think. It also stole valuable media attention from AOTC in a key phase of pre-release, which was immediately prior, and I think that may have had some effect.

Again, it is just one theory, and not based on much fact but on hypothesis and assumptions.

[CMJ]

I think that's a pretty interesting theory Jonathan. Meditate on this I will. :)