Hmmmm 61.2 Over long Holiday

[CMJ]

Not too bad....

[Master Yoghurt]

Is this the estimate after sunday's result?

Btw, it would seem then, I hit the mark with my 61M updated prediction, if it is correct. :)

[CMJ]

Yeah...I got it off of boxofficemojo.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, it is here:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/starwars/2.htm

Lets hope they did not mess up the estimate like last weekend. It would suck to find out it did 9M on monday for example.

[Dutchy]

$48.9M estimated for Fri-Sun, which is a 43% drop where TPM dropped only 20.7%.

$61.0M for Fri-Mon is a 24% drop (compared to last week's 3-day-weekend) where TPM went up 3% on the same time frame.

But $61.0M is not bad after its Friday.

[CMJ]

Not only that Dutchy, but any film that grosses nearly 50M in a second weekend isn't performing poorly. Yes, the drop off was severe...and yes it stings us fans, but the film is still doing REALLY well. Man I can remember when it was rare as hell when a film OPENED to a number this high.

[Master Yoghurt]

I agree with CMJ, 61M for a second weekend is a high number, no matter what expectations we might have. I'd also like to point out, a steep drop from the first weekend does not necessarily mean bad percentage drops for the remaining of the box office run. I still have faith the Force is with us and AOTC. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its also the second fastest film to 200 million which is very cool, I still think it might make it to 400 which would be great really and that is what I expected up until recently when I started uping my predictions.

[CMJ]

AND...there are those of us that wanna see it again, so it will have some sustained repeat business. I mean buff has what...another 80 showings to make it to? ;) He and Jonathan will drag it to 300M by themselves. ;)

[Dutchy]

Yes, nearly $50M, and not $61M coz that's an unfair comparison, is great for a 2nd weekend indeed. I guess we're all spoiled with spectacular boxoffice numbers lately. :)

Though what remains is that AOTC's declines are disappointing.

[CMJ]

Hopefully the declines will start to level out a bit. Even if it's only in the 35% range, that would be a marked improvement. I have a feeling it MIGHT hold up pretty well next weekend, because "Sum of All Fears" will skew older and will more likely effect "Insomnia" and "Unfaithful".

[Jedi Master Carr]

yeah plus I am not sure how well it would do, I don't know anybody that wants to see it I am wondering if the whole terrorism thing in it could hurt it. I think it could do 30-40 though and that would be a guess, AOTC could also make in that range, if it could do 30 something that would be great.

[CMJ]

Man Carr...I think alot of people are gonna wanna see it. It's buzz is really positive, apparently it's a white knuckle thriller. I'll try and see it at some point.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well maybe its just my friends, all of them can't stand Affleck so maybe that has something to do with it. I am not sure it just seems kind of dark especially with the bomb blowing up in Baltimore (I also think the trailer gives away half the plot it tells you what will happen, who is behind it, I hate when trailers do that stuff) I say it opens at 45 million tops but it could only open at 35 million, it will depend if people want to see a film about terrorism.

[CMJ]

Actually I'd be shocked if it opened at 35M. I am of the opinion it will open in the mid to high 20's and be a leggy film. That is usually how "adult" films tend to play.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well if it opens in the mid to high 20's it will be a poor opening because the following weekend is Bad company starring Hopkins and Chris Rock which is a similar film but I think it has more potetial that could be a big hit I think. That is why Sum of all Fears needs to open at 35 because its going to have a 50% hit the next weekend.

[CMJ]

I don't think so at all..."Bad Comapany" will skew much younger than "Sum"(can you see older audiences wanting to see Chris Rock?). The Clancy film could open at 25M and still hit 100M. I see it playing out like "General's Daughter".

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah but Anthony Hopkins could bring in some of the older crowd, maybe not a lot but some, I think Bad Company will be the better film and probably make more money. I am biased here because Sum of All Fears gives away the whole plot in the trailer why Bad Company gives very little which makes me more intreigued. Besides I like Hopkins and I think he is a lot better actor than Affleck, heck he could probably even kick the crap out of him in a fight :p

[CMJ]

Hey I love Hopkins dude, he's like one of my favorite actors. Much more so than Affleck. But "Bad Company" IS a Joel Schumacher film, who is really hit and miss(not to mention a Jerry Bruckheimer producion who is also REALLY hit and miss for me).

I think both films will do well actually. We're just of differing opinions on the demographics of the audiences. I believe they have 2 pretty different ones, while you think they're shooting for a really similar audience.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well that no big deal, I think they are both similar I guess because I see them as both action/thrillers about terrorists and I see the demographics as similar, I mean I could be wrong about Sum of All fears audience I don't know it will be interesting to see.

[CMJ]

Yeah..I see "Sum of all Fears" as a thriller.

I see "Bad Company" as an action/comedy in the same vein as "Rush Hour".

So we disagree on the genres. ;)

[Doc Milo]

I'm still not sure if I want to see the Sum of All Fears. I'm a big Clancy fan -- I loved all the Jack Ryan novels; I liked the previous three movies, even though I thought Alec Baldwin was a poor Jack Ryan. But this one seems to have changed too much of what was in the novel . . . I'm just not sure it will be any good. I don't like the idea of going back to a Jack Ryan that is more like Alec Baldwin's in The Hunt for Red October than Harrison Ford's in Patriot Games and Clear and Present Danger.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I hear that they said that Sum is a prequel to the Harrison Ford movies? (I heard Affleck plays a younger Jack Ryan than Harrison Ford's.) But that's not correct chronologically in the novels, if I remember correctly. Sum come right before Debt of Honor, no?

Those are the reasons I'll probably wait for the video/DVD release of Sum before seeing it.

[CMJ]

From what I understand "Sum' is a prequel to "Red October"(the best in the Clancy series of films for my money) too.

[Doc Milo]

In the novels, though, the prequel to Red October is "Cardinal of the Kremlin" and I believe "Patriot Games" also comes before Hunt, chronologically, but not the "The Sum of All Fears"

Just checked the novel itself. Here's the summary at the beginning (of the PB version):

"The Gulf War is over. An Israeli nuclear weapon is missing. The balance of power in the Mideast -- and the world -- is about to change forever.

Only Tom Clancy could create an international scenario so real, so dramatic, so brilliantly intense as the epic crisis portrayed in THE SUM OF ALL FEARS. CIA deputy director Jack Ryan -- hero of THE HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER, and PATRIOT GAMES -- returns in this breathtaking tour de force of military action, cutting-edge technology, and raw emotional power . . ."

The first sentence tells us it's after the Hunt for Red October -- it's supposed to take place after the Gulf War -- and the terrorists are supposed to be Muslim extremists.

Just, too much changed for this movie from the novel...

I, too, liked the Hunt for Red October, the movie -- I just hated Alec Baldwin as Jack Ryan. (Of course, I have no use for any of the Baldwins, but that's just my opinion on them.)

[CMJ]

Yeah, well they changed the chronology most likely because who is gonna believe that Affleck is playing the Jack Ryan character unless it's before those other films. The man is obviously 20 years younger than Ford(more than that actually) and like 10-15 younger than Baldwin.

[Jinn Fizz]

The $61 million figure for this weekend isn't bad at all, and woohoo! Over $200 million today! But yes, please oh please, don't tell us tomorrow that someone screwed up the estimates again, that would truly suck.

I don't know about Sum of All Fears...I've been seeing the trailer before AOTC, and today in particular it struck me how uncomfortable it might be for some people to see something like this in this post 9/11 era. Plus I'm not a Ben Affleck fan at all, so this is definitely a pass for me.

But you know what movie keeps looking funnier and funnier each time I see the trailer before AOTC? Undercover Brother. :lol

[CMJ]

I'm hoping maybe they screwed the estimates up...on the low side. We need a break. :)

[Jinn Fizz]

Amen to that!!! :lol :lol :lol

[flagg]

Good news from the UK anyway. AOTC's second week was bigger than TPM's second, and it's total is running £1 million ahead of TPM already with no competition in sight. If it's any comfort, I think AOTC's international performance will more than make up for a lower domestic total :)

[JonathanLB]

I tend to remain fairly confident in our international chances. Fact is, many films underperform on one side or another. Many Arnold movies do 2-3 times their domestic total overseas, so while we may not be big fans of some new Arnold film, the international audiences DO show up.

In the case of Star Wars, perhaps in other countries the media was at least a BIT less venomous towards TPM and the reviews in the UK for AOTC seem to be very good, mostly, from what I saw anyway (and that was about 8 reviews I suppose).

"Though what remains is that AOTC's declines are disappointing."

I agree :(

Disappointing just means more so than we had hoped, and they are, in that case, very disappointing. I would be disappointed with a 30% decline from weekend 1 to 2, because that's 10% worse than TPM, but a 43% decline is quite high. It's actually just considered "average" staying power, though for a SW film that is quite bad. TPM had excellent staying power, not just good staying power, so then for AOTC go drop from excellent to average, ouch...

I hope the estimates are wrong and it makes $62.5 million or something, just a bit higher.

We need some sort of break here, like a 32% decline next weekend or something. Unfortunately that is not too likely. The Sunday-to-Sunday drop will hurt badly.

AOTC will end up with a sum of money that is greater than almost any movie ever made, and given that it had VERY LITTLE advertising and is the fifth part in a movie series, that still has to be considered impressive. Disappointing to us? Ok, yeah sure, but that doesn't change the fact that anything above $300 million for ANY movie is an EXCELLENT final total regardless of where it opened, regardless of what movie it is. The only reason we are so spoiled is because TPM kicked all ass at the box office. The film set more than 20 records even just in the United States (biggest non-holiday: Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday; biggest opening day, biggest ever day, biggest non-holiday weekend, biggest Fox opening, highest grossing Fox movie, highest grossing fourth movie in a series, biggest second weekend gross, fastest to: $100M, $150M, $200M, $250M, $300M, $350M, highest grossing summer movie in history after one release, and many other smaller ones).

The fact that TPM did so amazingly well (regardless of the media's backlash) gave AOTC a very tough act to follow. So while I will definitely say that I am disappointed AOTC is not holding better, I will not say that $300 million and over is a disappointing final gross. It isn't. For a new Star Wars movie, I had hoped to see a gross over $400 million at the least, but you can't call any movie that makes over $300 million a box office disappointment. There is a big difference between my own disappointment and an ACTUAL disappointment.

Speed 2 was a disappointment to its studio because it failed to hold well at all, failed to come even close to the success of its original. AOTC, which WILL finish above $325 million, is NOT a disappointment to Lucas, Fox, Lucasfilm, or anyone else involved. When you combine what will be a very impressive international release with a still very awesome domestic release, you'll come up with $750 million at least, and that's a very pessimistic prediction. Mine would be $850M.

Disappoint is, nonetheless, the gap that exists between expectation and reality. So that being said, when many people DID expect TPM to be the greatest movie of all time (myself included), and it fell short for them (not so for me, hehe), it was a disappointment. That's pretty messed up considering it could be a four star disappointment, lol, but it's just the reality of any Star Wars film. People don't expect greatness, they expect absolutely the best. It's not good enough for a new Star Wars film to be 2nd of the year, even though there are 250+ movies that come out each year. No. That is NOT good enough. First is the only acceptable rank. That is a tough expectation for any movie to meet, especially with competition like Spider-Man, Harry Potter 2, and LOTR: TTT. Not to mention perhaps a few other surprise big successes.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree with Doc, I think they changed too much and I too will wait for the Video. I also wonder how well it will do, because a lot of people are starting to complain about it, there are some Republican congressmen that are saying the film should not be released because of the whole Atomic bomb droping on Baltimore scene. Now I don't know if I agree with his sentiment but I do think a lot of people will be unwilling to see terrorism like that, of course I could be wrong, Bad Company is similar has to with Arab Terrorists trying to blow up Wall Street. Finally what the heck did they chose the Nazis? That is so lame they have to use the only politically correct villain there is an it is so unresonable to think Nazi terrorists could get hold of a Nuke, the biggest Nazi like group is the Aryan Nation and they couldn't even do that (though I have always held the opinion they were behind Mcviegh in Oklahomha City but that is a different topic). I guess we will have to wait a see what happens when the smoke clears on these two films.

[Darth23]

AOTC is dropping quicker than TPM because of the lack of kid appeal. :p

I've hardly seen any kids or families in the theaters.

(It's a theory, anyway)

[JonathanLB]

I happen to buy into that theory. I have hardly seen any kids in theaters, honestly. Where are they? I see mostly teens and young adults, exactly the audience that makes for horrible staying power. Teens rush out to see something and then move on, they lack any loyalty usually.

Middle-aged adults and kids (the family audiences) help long-term staying power when combined with the teenage audience, like with TPM.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here is the truth less Jar Jar, you might call me crazy but a lot of kids love hm and he is in less so stuff like that could be a factor.

[JonathanLB]

Well the kids do seem to like Jar Jar a lot...

[Master Yoghurt]

Hmm.. Darth could be right. I have not noticed much of kids and families.

[JMK]

I sat next to a mom and 2 kids the 2nd time I went, and yes, the kids LOVE Jar Jar.

[flagg]

True, AOTC is definitely less of a kid's film than TPM. But then Titanic wasn't a kid's film either. But I guess teenage girls were the main repeat audience for that film :)

[CMJ]

No..."Titanic" brought in people like my grandparents(who NEVER goto the movies) thats why it did so well.

[CMJ]

The actual figure for the weekend is 60M...lower than first reported...again.

*sigh*

We're getting no breaks here people.

[JonathanLB]

I could break your legs if it would make you feel better about getting a few breaks ;)

lol, j/k.

They say $60.0, I'd like to see the number reported at least one other place because I haven't seen a confirmed 3-day report.

Remember, it doesn't matter as much if they said, "Oh, well actually it appears that the movie made $55 million on the weekend and $5 million Monday." That would just be better because then you'd at least know that the first-to-second weekend drop was less, screw Monday. That's not the weekend. It is just another day that people had off that is added to the gross, yay, that is good, but I would rather see a lower weekend decline even if the Monday number is less than predicted.

[CMJ]

Jonathan...I saw it on entdata.com, they actually had it up before boxofficemojo did.

[JonathanLB]

I'll remember the link...

Well did they have three-day figures because that is what I wanted to see...?

ShowBizData is so stupid. They have an article saying that Spider-Man beat Titanic's fourth weekend record with $36.5 million. LOL, oh my god, get a clue guys, the Monday DOES NOT COUNT in weekend records. That is like saying the highest grossing weekend ever before HP and Spider-Man was $90 million, by Lost World, not $72 million. That's just flawed logic. You cannot ADD an entire day and say, "Wow, gee look Spider-Man made more than Titanic on its fourth weekend!" Uhh, no. Three days. That is a weekend. Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Count 'em.

I don't think Spider-Man's three day mark beat Titanic's fourth weekend, either, it's close, but no cigar I think.

[CMJ]

No..."Spiderman" has dipped below the boat on the weekends. It will take it awhile before it falls behind it's pace though. "Titanic" hadn't even hit 200M yet I don't believe.

[Dutchy]

AOTC's actuals are:

Fri: $12,787,965
Sat: $18,560,664
Sun: $16,531,903
Mon: $12,123,417

3-day total: $47,880,532 (down 40.2%)
4-day toal: $60,003,949

[flagg]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
I'll remember the link...

Well did they have three-day figures because that is what I wanted to see...?

ShowBizData is so stupid. They have an article saying that Spider-Man beat Titanic's fourth weekend record with $36.5 million. LOL, oh my god, get a clue guys, the Monday DOES NOT COUNT in weekend records. That is like saying the highest grossing weekend ever before HP and Spider-Man was $90 million, by Lost World, not $72 million. That's just flawed logic. You cannot ADD an entire day and say, "Wow, gee look Spider-Man made more than Titanic on its fourth weekend!" Uhh, no. Three days. That is a weekend. Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Count 'em.

I don't think Spider-Man's three day mark beat Titanic's fourth weekend, either, it's close, but no cigar I think.

Showbizdata does suck. They also have The Lost World listed as a bigger May opening than AOTC, comparing its four days to AOTC's three! :)