What's your "revised" AOTC final gross?

[Jedieb]

Now that the dust is starting to settle and we've got numbers to work with, what do you AOTC's final numbers are going to be? I'm thinking that AOTC will fall short of $400M and gross closer to $350. I think Spidey has an outside shot at $450M.

[CMJ]

Keep hope alive... :)

AOTC 375M
"Spiderman" 415M

[Jedi Master Carr]

AOTC 395-405
Spiderman 410 but WW
AOTC 880-940
Spiderman 750-800

[CMJ]

Man Carr...it's good to see someone so bullish on our film still. I thought I was being optimistic. :)

[BUFFJEDI]

I'm Proud of my Guess, and will keep it as such:) :)

[Master Yoghurt]

I still think AOTC has a shot at 400. :)

[Quadinaros]

My original prediction was $505 million. Then, in a drunken state, I predicted $620 million. I'll run with that. AOTC will make $620 million at the box office. :|

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think its just a little behind TPM's pace and it will make 400 or at least come close, I think the WW gross though is more realistic. Also this is from Box office Mojo

Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones jumped 41.5% from Friday to an estimated $18,087,000 on Saturday, 58% more than its nearest competitor Spider-Man. In 10 days, it has rocketed to $172,175,000 and leapt 23 spots from Friday to No. 68 on the all time chart in the process, landing just a smidgen behind fellow Fox 2002 release Ice Age.
Clones's trajectory now points to around $62 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, with Friday to Sunday accounting for $48 million of that. It should blast past the $200 million mark by Monday -- its 12th day of release -- making it the second fastest movie ever to do so behind Spider-Man, which did it in nine.

Without adjusting for inflation, Clones' gross will start to lag behind Menace by Day 15 (Thursday) at the latest. Facing far more competition in coming weeks than Menace did, Clones will likely fall short of Menace's $431,088,297 final tally.

They seem to think it will fall short of 431 but it still leaves hope for 400 I think because they seem to think it will be close.

[Master Yoghurt]

Yeah, I have a feeling the percentage drops will be less from now on.

[JonathanLB]

I hope you guys are right, that would be great...

I'll remain at least a little hopeful... $355 million.

Worldwide, it'll clear $850 million though and rank right up on the list, pretty high.

[dbn]

I am sticking to my guns!

525 Us.
613 World.
1,138 total world box office:)

[JMK]

360M US
750 WW

[BUFFJEDI]

Ashamed I JMK,I am :(
proud of his first prediction he should be.:D why??because it's a crap lot lower than mine!!!!!!!!!

[JMK]

I'm a realist Buff, plus, if it beats my new low prediction, it'll come as a surprise rather than a disappointment!

[Dutchy]

Hehehe... make a good prediction that doesn't need a revision, I'd say. :p

Even though my original $350M prediction looks better than my Spider-Man adjusted $390M prediction, but it's good to see now most of you guys lean much more towards my original predictions. :)

[JonathanLB]

How is that "good to see"? I don't think that is good at all. It's terrible. Everyone had hoped that AOTC could perform as well as TPM (adjusted for inflation) because we all enjoyed it so much and we'd like to see as many people as possible get into the Star Wars story. Instead, the film has underperformed compared to expectations. I don't see how that is good at all. I can understand how you would be proud of your accurate prediction, ok, but it's not "good to see" that AOTC is not doing as well as it should.

[CMJ]

He's just happy his prediction is panning out, especially the way he was criticized for it being low. If I were him I'd be quietly happy as well...remember he isn't really a SW fan. He has no vested interest in how AOTC performs, he's just a number cruncher. :)

[JonathanLB]

I understand that. It is a nice feeling being right, absolutely, and given he has no interest in the saga really, that's understandable. I am just stating that for us, it's not like that is a good thing, and I find it rather insulting for someone to basically wish for something not to do as well on a board where we all really love what is in question...

[Jedieb]

I don't think Dutchy is insulting anyone. He's right, and we were wrong. Obviously his objectivity paid off for him. Now, if he were to start crowing and insulting people left and right with one condescending LOL after another, then he'd earn some flames.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I'm sticking with my number - whatever it was

[JonathanLB]

Dutchy means no harm, I know that. :) He is a very good box office analyst, and my "realistic" prediction of $440 million would have been wrong probably (my Star Wars fan optimist prediction of like $510 million obviously was destined to be wrong, but as I said at the time, I really like to remain optimistic -- this is Star Wars!!!).

I will say this, though... If somehow AOTC makes it to $400 million, like if it starts showing better staying power, I would be incredibly, incredibly impressed with the film's box office run.

Perhaps if AOTC falls more in the range of 30-33% from weekend 3 to 4 and on (we know that this weekend to next is going to be a bit steep because of the holiday frame), then it has a chance at crawling past $400 million much later. It's not out of the question, it's just that I see it as particularly unlikely.

Speaking of which, what are the odds of Spider-Man beating TPM? Before I thought they were really good because I would have pegged Spidey for about $450 million, but after this weekend I am not so sure. Spider-Man did not hold up that well...

$45 million to $36 million for FOUR days is a worse hold than AOTC's $80M and $62M given that Spider-Man just added 7% more theaters...

It's not "worse" as much as it is worse than I expected. I had thought Spider-Man would do $40 million this weekend, and although the difference between that and the actual is fairly small, it will mean that if it continues on a downward trajectory of 40% or so, I don't think it will top TPM.

It needs about $100 million more after this Monday. Certainly possible, although how quickly it loses thaters is going to be a factor here. TPM could have reached $450 million, I thought, had it not lost so many theaters. I remember on July 4th weekend they cut it from about 700 theaters and it really hurt badly because during the week the declines were in the range of 4-10%, which was the lowest it had ever been, and then all of the sudden we just got yanked down to about 1,800 theaters and it just hurt (somewhere around a 30% drop, which never should have happened; stupid theaters).

[Darth23]

Screw revised guesses!

I STILL say 477 million.
:D