85 million

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is the estamite Box Office Mojo has posted, of course they have been off on there previous two estamites (three million too low on Thursday and a million high on Friday) so who knows what the exact figure will be, but that will probably be the estimate, if it holds up then that is great that would give it about 115 which would be an amazing 4 days

[Dutchy]

$86.15M, it says. Well, that matches my prediction again and also shows that Friday's gross is 28% of the total gross, like TPM did.

[Darth23]

Acording to <a href=http://www.entdata.com/bonews/bonewsframes.htmltarget=new>Box Office News</a>

AOTC:
$86.15 million (3 day)
$116.3 million (4 day)


TPM:
$64 million (3 day)
$105 million (5 day)

AOTC's 4 day total is similar to Spidey's 3 day total.

Spiderman only dropped 35% to 46 million. :eek

I guess you could say that the box office expands to accomodate the popular movies out there.

Memorial Day weekend's numbers soudl be very interesting. I could see an increase for Spidey and a slight decrease for AOTC, which could give Ep. 2 a higher second week.

Of course, the weekend after that will show what kind of staying power ATOC will have.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Darth23
Of course, the weekend after that will show what kind of staying power ATOC will have.

Its Sunday to Monday drop will tell us something already as well. Besides that, comparing it to TPM will also tell us something.

[Dutchy]

Boxoffice Mojo posts an estimated $32.25 for Saturday, and $25.20M for Friday.

Lee's Movie Info says $24.67 and $32.10.

[CMJ]

Don't you love how the figures don't match?? ;) I'm still scratching my head about "Spiderman" to be honest.

[Dutchy]

No, I hate it. :p

Yes, Spider-Man keeps surprising us.

[JonathanLB]

Most disturbing this puzzle is. :)

Gross well, AOTC did. Even bigger Saturday than Thursday, I predicted correctly, hmmm...

To Obi-Wan you listen!

Ok enough Yoda speak it takes too dang long to write.

I think AOTC will do exceptionally well next weekend. It should actually increase over the four-day period. So I'd say $90 million for the next four day weekend.

This estimate of about $86 million may or may not be right. It could be more like $87 to $88 million by the final tally (TPM was, after all, underestimated almost every single weekend). $86M is great, I'm just saying, it is an estimate...

[Jedieb]

I should have kept my original guesses, I would have been less than 2 million off for both the weekend and the 4 day total! D'OH!

[CMJ]

My 4 day guess was 117.92.....so if the estimate is just a TAD low I'm in bizness. ;)

[JonathanLB]

I also hope the estimate is just a tad low because at least my weekend gross number would be almost entirely accurate.

Man that would be funny if it literally did hit $87.8 million, or like say $87.815 million, LOL. I wish. :) That's be sweet. I was wrong on the opening day take, but oh well, can't call them all.

[dbn]

Originally posted by Darth23

Memorial Day weekend's numbers soudl be very interesting. I could see an increase for Spidey and a slight decrease for AOTC, which could give Ep. 2 a higher second week.

I think that new movies like Spirit, and J-low's new movie might stump and kick on Spidey numbers next weekend.

But it is good to see what Attack of the Clones are doing at the box-office, and I hope it is telling in what we are to see this summer....

[Jedi Master Carr]

Now how can they predict 25 for Sunday? That would be like 82 or 83 or something like that, so obvisoly they got there numbers confused there, obvisoly it must have made closer to 29 which would make since, I wouldn't be surprised if its off by a million and it made 87 which would be awesome too. As far as Spiderman I am shocked that it did so well, is this weekend a record two movies making so much money, I guess this year could be a record, two movies making 400 million not to mention probably 4 films over the 300 million dollar mark.

[Super Wookiee]

I'd like to know who all these people who went to see Spiderman are. Everyone I know is talking about Star Wars now, spiderman is a distant memory........

[jjwr]

A lot of the theatres sold out of Star Wars.....leaves only one other big movie to see, I'm sure that boosted the Spiderman total take.

[JMK]

I said earlier that this weekend would probably be a record for the #1 and #2 movie's combined gross. I'm not really surprised at all over Spider-Man's performance this week.

[JonathanLB]

I don't know a single person who saw Spider-Man this weekend and I know a lot of people. On my AIM list alone, more than 100 people, nobody went to see Spider-Man! LOL. I have no idea who these fools are.

It must be people who are either living in the past or too stupid to realize that if you want Star Wars tickets, you show up either 4 hours early or the day before. Not 1 hour early.

[JMK]

Seeing Spider Man does not make people fools, even if Star Wars is out. And you don't have to buy tickets hours in advance. I have tickets for 10pm tonight, and I just bought them online about 30 minutes ago.

There are ALOT of people in the U.S., Your AIM list is not a valid (large enough) sample of movie goers across the country.

[foxdvd]

My parents went to Spiderman this weekend, because they do not like big crowds...the funny thing was it was about 80 percent full...LOL....they will not even try to go to Star Wars until the 4th week or so.

[JonathanLB]

It obviously isn't, lol. My AIM list is mostly teens, and teens are not far behind the times like the adults are. We see movies opening weekend, not three weeks late. Most people who are my close friends or even marginal friends already saw AOTC. Bryan, Ben, Sean O, Sean C., Steve, Ryan, Rachel, Julie, Houston, etc. Most people I know already saw AOTC, excluding the girls, who will get out later to see it or not at all, who knows. Time will tell.

Spider-Man is a great movie, lol, but you gotta be a FOOL to think you can show up for a prime-time showing of Star Wars and get tickets. If you buy them online, that's great thinking, then you don't waste any time and you're not a fool at all. But seriously, if anyone thinks an hour early is sufficient for prime-time showings and shows up at the box office, they really need to get a clue. It doesn't make them stupid, it just makes them ignorant. As I said, fools. Perhaps they just wanted to see *A* movie, though, and if SW was sold out, that'd be ok, they'd see something else. In that case, nothing wrong with showing up an hour early.

Of course you got tickets to a 10 p.m. showing, it's Sunday! Even the 10:45 last night at Evergreen didn't sell out. You can get late tickets like that pretty easily without having to show up too early, not a problem. Same was true of Spider-Man. On its supposedly "all sold out" weekend (which is a crock of BS -- Spider-Man hardly sold out anywhere, it just was very full), I sat in a basically empty theater Sunday night at 10. There were about 40 people there and the theater easily could seat 600. I was there Friday too and it wasn't sold out either. It was at about 70% capacity, which is very good. I showed up 50 minutes early and got a ticket easily on opening day.

I think AOTC was simply more full in most cities than Spider-Man was, although when you have the benefit of that many screens, clearly your film can make a lot of money!!! ($115M in 3 days = one damn boatload of cash).

Hey, lol, this was funny...

At my last AOTC viewing, KGON 92.3 (Rock Station) showed up and handed out stickers for their station to most everyone in line (I got one and I was way back), then they apparently covered the lines a bit, and abruptly left. Also at the same time, or just about 10 minutes before actually, OREGON ARMORED showed up to transport the money away from the theater, the second time this weekend I had seen them come to pick up the cash. Haha, man as I said to my mom, I have NEVER seen the theater that busy. Ever. Between AOTC and Spider-Man, not to mention the few other movies doing decent, the traffic at my theater was more than I have ever seen and I go there two to three times per week. I've never had to park that far away, either. I wanted to call a taxi just to get from my car to the theater itself! lol. Both Spider-Man and Star Wars are a HUGE boost to business.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I just read on Box office Mojo that AOTC made 183 world wide, I think they said it made something like 67 in the rest of the world. That is pretty good, I have to say its chances of getting past the billion mark looks pretty good right now.

[BUFFJEDI]

Come on, I went agian today,3 sreens SOLD OUT!!(several time slot showing's) I personally went to check the Spiderman screens(at two different times) ALL but empty. Have heard and read the same from other's. So tell me HOW the heck is Spiderman doing so well and SW is only doing so so(considering SW is NEW spidey 2t03 weeks old) SUrely you guy's must see they are messing with the number's They have to be. Sorry for saying it agian BUT dude's there is SOMETHING going on >

[CMJ]

Buff....

Nevermind. :)

[BUFFJEDI]

Iknow ,I know Sorry :( I'll try and stop :)

[JonathanLB]

When SW fans say things like that, it makes us all look like we are disappointed in something when nobody has reason to be.

AOTC did amazingly well the first weekend. I'd like to ask anyone here, if 3 years ago after TPM opened, I said that AOTC will make $86 million in its first three day weekend, how many people would have said they thought that was way too high? I think most of us would have been very surprised by that.

Just because of Spidey and HP, people think somehow $86 million is not good, but remember that TPM made $431.1 million on an opening of $64.8 million. AOTC can beat TPM's gross by at least $100 million if it just has similar staying power!

[dbn]

Spider-man is enjoying the run off of sold out rooms for Attack of the Clones, becuase aotc is playing on fewer screens than spider-man. (imo)

[JonathanLB]

I must concur with that. I think that generally a really large release like that can expand the overall marketplace. Same happened with TPM, when Notting Hill still enjoyed great success.

Also with Austin Powers 2, which didn't kill TPM at all, in fact TPM had a wonderful decline that weekend, much to our amazement. Often times competition is not HURTFUL but in fact gets people out to theaters, which is a good thing.

I must believe based on good exit polls and sold out showings that Monday is going to be a very good day for AOTC, but we shall see in a little while. Not that long.

[Master Yoghurt]

I should have just stuck with my original estimate, and I would have landed on the mark spot on. Think I predicted 84 million for 3 days, 112 for 4 and a 29.9M opening day.

The thing is, I really thought with the trend of increased openings, inflation and higher screen count than TPM, it would go higher. I also thought the theaters would be at least as packed as in Spiderman, adjusted for difference in screen number. After all, it is SW we are talking about.

I believe the expectations for AOTC were not so high this time, and as a result, it didn't generate quite the same traffic on its opening day. Friday and saturday were impressive percentage wise, which may indicate, the movie is gaining some momentum over the weekend. Possibly, because it gets very good word of mouth right now. I would watch out for a higher number for Sunday than expected, and lower percentage drop offs on the weekdays than were the case with TPM.

And DBN is right. Those people marketing Spiderman are genius. First, the marketing campaign, very successful. Then 2 weeks of weak competition. Then AOTC arrives, with a lot of sold out screens, so what happens, people say; "Ok, lets go see Spiderman instead!". And next weekend will be huge as well. Then add the good reviews and word of mouth Spiderman has, then you have low drop offs for the rest of the summer. Where and how will it end? I say it will make at least 400M now, perhaps more than 450.

Before Spiderman opened, I was a firm believer AOTC would obliterate all competition from high orbit, including Spiderman. But now, I am not quite that sure anymore. I still think AOTC will end up as the top movie in 2002, but the margin is getting slim.

A word of comfort; due to the positive reactions AOTC have, I think it will have low percentage drop offs. What AOTC lacks in opening, it should more than compensate with legs.

[Marcus Telcontar]

There is one more point to be made.

AOTC is the fifth - FIFTH movie in the series. And it still looks like doing 400 million. When the fifth Spiderman does the same, impressed then I will be.

For the fifth time round, Star Wars aint doing all that bad, wouldn't you say? The performance is incredible to say the least. Not that Spider Man aint doing all that bad (Fact is, I too think AOTC may not be No. 1 by the end this year), but AOTC just proves how valuable Star Wars is as a francise. I very much doubt anything after five movies would do anything like this.

[JonathanLB]

I don't agree with any commentary that indicates AOTC was anything less than awesome in its debut.

Here is what you should consider in comparing them:

11% more screens than TPM.

18% higher ticket prices (roughly).

That added together is about 29%, which means that TPM, if released in the same # of theaters and with today's ticket prices, would have made about $83 million. AOTC beat that. With less hype. With less advertising. I don't see how that is anything short of amazing. As Variety said, the film came in on the high end of early predictions.

[Dutchy]

TPM did have 1 day extra prior to its opening weekend, though. Plus, the urge to see it on opening day was probably bigger than with AOTC.

Nonetheless, AOTC's opening is good.

[JonathanLB]

"AOTC is the fifth - FIFTH movie in the series. And it still looks like doing 400 million. When the fifth Spiderman does the same, impressed then I will be."

That is the best point made so far. It's the fifth film in the series and will still perform not only at a blockbuster level, i.e. $150 million or so, not only at a major blockbuster level, i.e. $250 million, but at a phenomenon level above $350 million. That is pretty stunning. Pretty amazing given that AOTC does actually presume some knowledge of Star Wars...

[JonathanLB]

That is true too, so having the opening on Thursday and not Wednesday helped push a little bit of business to the weekend, so that makes the difference.

I'd say all things considered, AOTC and TPM opened up at roughly the same level of success.

I wouldn't call it "good," though. That's not very appropriate. Good is $20 million. That's a good opening. I mean not for a major blockbuster, but for any major film, $45 million is good. $60 million is great, only a few films reach that level on opening weekend. $85 million is frickin' awesome. 3rd best ever isn't less than awesome just because two movies outdid it, both of which had vastly increased marketing and screen counts, most importantly.

[Dutchy]

Yes, it IS the 5th is a series, but it's a whole new era since the OT, so it can't be quite compared that way, IMHO. Still, no doubt about Star Wars excellent boxoffice runs.

[JonathanLB]

Why can't it be compared? I think it's even more difficult to interest new generations with a series after it has been out of theaters for 16 years, but with SW, it hung around and has still remained, well, actually is more popular today than it was back then. Many more fans.

[Lumiya]

The next couple of weeks or so, should be indeed interesting...I wouldn't at all be surprised to see SW maintain it's numbers, if not increase them...

Many people have decided to wait for the crowds to thin, so that they can see it where & when they want, w/out worry of it being sold out.

As for those seeing spidey...Weeeeell, I was wondering about them too, but tickets being sold out could almost be an excusable cop out, hehe.

I stepped out of a theater just after a midnight premiere & Spidey emptied at the same time. Needless to say the surprisingly 'trendy' crowd, mocked the crap out of the Spidey viewers. A local news crew was asking for volunteers to give their opinion...If I wanted to be on TV, I would've turned the camera man to face the Spidey viewers & said "Don't make the same mistake they did...Get your tickets online. SW isn't a movie, it's an experience, live it & love it while you can...Or go home crying like they undoubtedly will":crack

[JonathanLB]

lol, seriously. Get your tickets online.

I know people are going to do this again second weekend. They will go to theaters thinking it's going to be mostly ok by that time, and just like Spider-Man on second weekend, they will still find massive lines and sold out showings.

I foresee a very good Memorial Day weekend take...

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
I wouldn't call it "good," though. That's not very appropriate. Good is $20 million. That's a good opening. I mean not for a major blockbuster, but for any major film, $45 million is good. $60 million is great, only a few films reach that level on opening weekend. $85 million is frickin' awesome. 3rd best ever isn't less than awesome just because two movies outdid it, both of which had vastly increased marketing and screen counts, most importantly.

I meant good as in not a disappointment. Of course $86M is excellent.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Why can't it be compared?

Because it's not the 5th movie in 5 years, then I'd have been (even) more impressed.

[Dutchy]

BTW, Jonathan, I asked you a question in this (http://www.swforums.net/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=18805) thread.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Because it's not the 5th movie in 5 years, then I'd have been (even) more impressed.

Still, gotta admit that AOTC is doing amazingly well. Given AOTC went with a few mill of Harry Potter on 2000 less screens, is amazing. The record for the biggest opening weekend WAS there for the taking, that is perfectly clear. If AOTC was opened as wide as Potter - or even Spider Man, the record would have been taken, I do believe that to be a fact.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Marcus Q'Dunn
Still, gotta admit that AOTC is doing amazingly well.

Well, it's not doing surprisingly jaw-droppingly well. It's basically what could have been expected. At least to me, because I predicted $85M, so I'm not surprised. So I wouldn't call it amazingly well, because I'm simply not amazed. Its staying power, THAT is something that could be amazing. I call something amazing if it's beyond anything I'd expect, and that it isn't (yet).

[JonathanLB]

But whether you expect it or not, it's still impressive for any movie to be doing this well. Your point is well seen, though :)

I agree, the staying power will be the issue. If it falls 20% or so this next weekend, that would blow me away...

[Master Yoghurt]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
I don't agree with any commentary that indicates AOTC was anything less than awesome in its debut.

I agree AOTC did awesome, but awesome compared to what? Compared to TPM, it is debatable. With same per screen averages as TPM had, it could have done even better because of inflation and higher screen count. AOTC had less tickets sold per screen than Spiderman and TPM had.

Lets see..

Spiderman: 114M on 7500 screens makes 15,200 per screen
AOTC: 86-88M on 6100 screens makes between 14,098 and 14426 per screen

Now for TPM..

Opening Day:
TPM: 33.5M (28.4M adjusted for 18% inflation)
AOTC: 30.1M

Weekend (3 day)
TPM: 76.5 (64.8M adjusted for 18% inflation)
AOTC: 86-88M

AOTC screen average: Around 14,000 per screen
TPM screen average: 15,300 per screen

Now lets include the increased amount of screens. Not sure where you got the 11% from? AFAIK, TPM played on 5000 screens, making it a 22% difference from the 6100 screens AOTC played on. Please, correct me if I am wrong, as I have been looking for the excact screen number for TPM. The following numbers are inaccurate due to lower screen averages as screens are added, but it gives an interesting indication:


Opening Day:
TPM: 40.9M (33.5M adjusted for 22% extra screens)
AOTC: 30.1M

Weekend (3 day)
TPM: 93.3M (76.5 adjusted for 22% extra screens)
AOTC: 86-88M

Now, if the opening day was the friday instead of wednesday, and the weekday gross would acumulate into the 3 day weekend instead, it REALLY starts to get insane. Then add the extra screens Spiderman had, and everything else becomes toast. Looking at it from that perspective, TPM's 3 day weekend would clearly been the highest in box office history. In fact, just by adding those extra screens, ignoring wednesday and friday, it still beats Spiderman! I dare not think what could have happened if TPM opened HP style with 8,000 screens over 3 days...

Anyway, back to topic. I am comparing TPM with AOTC now.

With 40M compared to 30, and 93M compared to 86, TPM had just a little better steam pressure. Even if we use your 11% screen increase, TPM still beats AOTC, because opening day was so huge, and one less weekday would have improved the 3 day result.

So what I am saying, yes, indeed AOTC's numbers are awesome, but TPM's numbers were better.

[Master Yoghurt]

Originally posted by Marcus Q'Dunn
If AOTC was opened as wide as Potter - or even Spider Man, the record would have been taken, I do believe that to be a fact.

I have to agree. If AOTC opened with 8,000 or even 7,500 screens, on a friday, it would have made shish kebab of Spiderman

[JonathanLB]

No... not 5,000 screens, 5,500 screens, only 600 fewer than AOTC.

"With same per screen averages as TPM had, it could have done even better because of inflation and higher screen count"

Not true either. TPM averaged $21,000 per theater, AOTC averaged well over $27,000 per theater. AOTC had several hundred more theaters and 600 more screens, so you can't say that the theaters that did play it ALL had more screens too, because that's not quite true. Granted, many did, including my local theater (3 vs. 2), but in fact if you add 200 theaters and 600 screens, odds are those 200 theaters probably account for 400 of those screens, or at least 300.

I didn't bother doing a "per print" average but TPM had 5,500 prints.

Compared to TPM, AOTC did more than awesome, it did phenomenally well (almost to the point of making me wonder why TPM couldn't have opened a tad bit higher, but not quite...). Compared to all other movies ever released, AOTC did awesome and only was bested by two films with much higher screen counts.

[Darth23]

The final numbers are out - they took away 6 million from AOTC -

80/110.

[JMK]

Uh-oh, don't look Buff!

[Dutchy]

Yeah, $80,027,814 according to Boxoffice Mojo. Hmmm... that seems rather underwhelming. I'm very curious about the single day actuals now.

[Dutchy]

$6M overestimated. I don't think I've ever seen that...

[Darth23]

SHowBizData is reporting AOTC's Sunday as 24.37 million - about equal to its Friday's number.

Which is a bit curious considering how well TPM did on Sundays.

[Dutchy]

Maybe Sunday's estimate was $6M too high? I guess so, because I think Friday and Saturday estimates are quite accurate. If so, then AOTC dropped 30% Sat to Sun, which is significantly higher than TPM's 10% in the same time frame, but we'll have to wait what the actuals are.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Darth23
SHowBizData is reporting AOTC's Sunday as 24.37 million - about equal to its Friday's number.

Which is a bit curious considering how well TPM did on Sundays.

If that's correct, then either Friday's, Saturday's or together should be $1.8M lower. If Saturday, that would make for a 20% Sat/Sun drop, still higher than TPM's, though not much.

[Jedieb]

Wow, that's surprising to say the least. I keep thinking about something my wife said to me;
"You know, if you're not into those movies it's very hard to follow."

We take it for granted that most people seeing AOTC know the basics. But for many casual movie goers the story may be getting more and more complicated. Plus, we don't have the '16 year wait' factor going for us. We're going to have to wait for the dust to settle before we start to make any realistic long range predictions.

[JonathanLB]

That is obviously disappointing that they didn't predict the figures accurately, but I always thought $80 million would be a good gross. It's just that when you say $86 and it comes out $80, you end up looking bad, that's all.

I agree that Memorial Day Weekend is critical, but I think that the chances of AOTC having great staying power just increased. I mean, if you consider that AOTC's opening wasn't really any greater than TPM's, adjusted for inflation, then you realize that if AOTC is a more well-liked film, even just ever-so-slightly, it should be able to have about the same staying power I would hope/assume.

It is going to need uncommonly great staying power, like TPM, to beat Spider-Man. That is true now.

Monday was looking fantastic, can anyone else tell me about Monday at their theater?

I went to a SOLD OUT 1:10 p.m. showing. Whoa, it was weird. I never expected that. However I must admit it was probably an anomoly because a company in the area, high tech company, had bought 100 tickets to the showing. The other 150 sold naturally to moviegoers like me, but the reason it was sold out was evidently from this company.

Nonetheless, it'd only need to fill auditoriums about half as full as Sunday to pull in the most ever on a Monday, like $12 to $13 million. I was thinking it'd do $13 million Monday, but we shall see. I think $45 million for the 4 day week should be about right.

You know, if somehow AOTC could avoid falling below $10 million this week, which I admit would pretty difficult but perhaps possible, it would be the first movie in history to gross $10 million or more for 12 consecutive days (May 16 through Memorial Day). Even if it holds to $10M+ for Monday and Tuesday, that's 6 straight days, something no other movie has ever accomplished to my knowledge, besides TPM actually (Wednesday - Monday).

Well we just need similar to TPM staying power and we'll have a major winner. Anything over $350 million, though, do remember, would still be very worthy of the Star Wars name. Although obviously we want $400 million, otherwise in some ways, yes, the media will paint this as a disappointment despite the wonderful reaction to the film.

[Darth23]

Mystery solved. Fox estimated Sundays gross based on Phantom Menace:


from Yahoo/Variety (http://movies.yahoo.com/news/va/20020520/102195014900.html):

'In the case of "Attack of the Clones," Fox underestimated how much ticket sales would drop off from Saturday to Sunday, projecting a decline of 11 percent based on its experience with "Star Wars" Episode I -- The Phantom Menace," back in May 1999. Instead, "Clones" actually dropped 21 percent, a difference magnified by the sheer size of the movie's true gross, a Fox spokeswoman said. "

So they didn't use the 'standard Saturday to Sunday drop, they ised TPM's first weekend as a guide.


TPM's Saturday to Sunday drops:

Opening Wekeend: -10.18%
Memorial Day weekend: - 4.1%
Week 3 - 23%
Week 4 - 20.63%
Week 5 -7.57%
Week 6 -21.71%
July 4th -26.96%
Week 8 -26.96% (not a typo)
Week 9 -24.67%
Week 10 -22.95%
Week 11 -31.74%
Week 12 -14.35%


So a 20% drop on Sunday isn't too surpring, looking at TPMs overall history.
I think If Spidey weren't around Sunday's number would have been closer to Fox's estimate.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know I saw that original figure of 29 for Sunday and thought it was a little high, I guess Fox just messed up there, no biggie, I still think it will do awesome next weekend. I have been talking to people who aren't really, really into SW and they all loved it and want to see it again. One guy has been trying since he saw the movie to find the toy Yoda (because he loved him in the movie so much) I think now it will come down to word of mouth and it will spread hugely and keep the movie going all summer.

[JonathanLB]

I wouldn't worry about it, seriously, especially wait for Monday's gross here. It's going to be impressive, I bet you...

50% of Sunday, anyway, I think it will be anyway.

With TPM, this is just a guess on my part and not based on fact, I believe people thought that if they waited until Sunday, it would not be so busy, and that is another reason for the very very low decline (nearly nonexistent, hehe).

AOTC's decline on Sunday was very good, from what I have seen, that is a normal decline that isn't at all bad. It's just that they used an abnormal weekend for TPM to predict AOTC's opening and apparently that didn't work. It could have gone either way. It wasn't probably an easy call to make, but you know, I would really error on the side of caution here. I would have said $82 million or something and if you came up at $86M, fine, but if it ended at $80M like it did, nobody would be thinking that much about it.

Oh well, Memorial Day weekend is going to be pretty nice! I love the strategy of having that massive weekend come as our second weekend, I still think that's a winning plan.

[Master Yoghurt]

Jonathan: Well, I did some checking, and you were right. It appears TPM played on approximately 5,500 screens, and would have made a slight lower per screen and theater average if AOTC made $86M. The margin is very small though, and put into account the extra day and the massive opening day, TPM's numbers seemed more impressive to me. At least, that was, and still is my opinion. :)

Now though, at $80M I think we can agree AOTC made just about the same, just a slight lower which is probably due to extra marketing and expectations TPM had.

I am really excited to see monday's numbers, because I think they will give a good indication of AOTC's box office strength from now on. If it breaks Spiderman's record, it is a very good sign. If not, then it becomes more dependant on good word of mouth, repeated viewings and low percentage drop offs.

[Doc Milo]

Jedieb:I keep thinking about something my wife said to me; "You know, if you're not into those movies it's very hard to follow."

This is why I ask non-Star Wars fans, casual movie-goers who want to go to see AotC if they saw TPM. If the answer is no, I suggest they rent it before going to see AotC, just so they have the backstory. I even tell them, "You may not like TPM. Some people love it, some don't. But you will need its information when you see AotC..." Then I highly suggest that they see AotC. It was just a plain awesome movie!

[Dutchy]

Interesting reading: 'Attack of the Clones' Lands $6 Million Short of Fox Estimate (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/articles/news/?id=020521sw.htm).