Beating a Dead Horse

[Quadinaros]

AOTC will beat Titanic.

I'm sorry, but I've seen it 3 times in two days, and I've never seen people have such a good time at the movies. The applause at the closing credits was unlike anything I've seen in my lifetime. And I'll admit, I've never been happier leaving a theater than I have been after my 3 viewings.

In our lifetimes, we will probably never have another phenomenom to experience like Star Wars.

I'll go out on that limb and predict $620 million at this point. :)

Somebody back me up, please.

[JonathanLB]

Ok :)

$87 million opening weekend.

14% of the total comes from opening weekend.

$621.43 million. ;)

[CMJ]

I really doubt it will happen...I'd put the chance at less that 10%.

"Never tell me the odds." ;)

[JonathanLB]

Yes, that is true.

I said 20-1 odds (5%) before AOTC opened, but with the opening weekend in the books, I'd move the odds to 15-1. Odds of it having exactly as good of staying power as TPM are perhaps 4-1, so odds of it having even better staying power, just barely, to make it past $600M are more like 15-1.

Odds for TPM to beat Titanic after opening weekend were like probably 200-1, at best, though. So this is a lot better than that.

To be honest, with Spider-Man doing this well, which means it could even hit $450 million, there is a chance that AOTC will be able to hit $600M. Seriously, it definitely is not totally out of the question. Spider-Man is showing low declines and I think AOTC can show even lower ones. So far, Spider-Man is the act to follow. It is absolutely the "marvel" right now, not AOTC. AOTC's opening is very impressive I think, right in line with what I was hoping, but now it's still up to AOTC to PROVE it, prove that it can have the staying power that makes a phenomenon, like TPM did prove after its opening.

Something that is really nice this time around is the girls are giving AOTC the same rating as the guys on CinemaScore, by age group. That didn't happen before with TPM, so if we get the girls into theaters in larger numbers, as is going to happen at least to some degree, then that is a huge boost!

[CMJ]

Odds for "About a Boy" to break the record....

Aprroximately 3720-1. ;)

[JonathanLB]

Wow that is really generous CMJ! I would say literally the odds are less than 1 in 1,000,000,000. Definitely less than that.

[CMJ]

LOL...I know...but 3720-1 is such a good number. I thought of using another film for my comedic moment, but it was the only one that immediately came to mind. :)

[Dutchy]

The odds of AOTC's numbers being correct: 3167-1. ;)

[CMJ]

LMAO Dutchy...that's freakin' great!

[JonathanLB]

Ok, good point! :)

Yeah that is a great number.

Here is my assessment:

If AOTC makes $13 million or more on Monday, or anywhere in the range of 50% of the Sunday gross, then its odds of beating Titanic increase from 15-1 to 14-1.

If AOTC clears $90 million next weekend for the four day period, its odds increase to 8-1.

[CMJ]

Sounds reasonable. I'm really curious how close this estimate for the weekend is.

[Dutchy]

If all of TPM's estimates were too high, then why didn't they just start estimating higher? :p

[JonathanLB]

You mean if they were too low, why didn't they start estimating higher?

I kept wondering that. Seriously, what was the deal with that? They were not making good estimates at all, either that or they wanted the attention of having the estimate be lower. But that's STUPID, because everyone reports the estimate, rarely the actual, so that would be silly. I am not sure what they were thinking.

I remember them being off by $3 million (low) on the first weekend, $2.1 million the next weekend (low) and around $1 million again the next weekend (low).

Heck if the estimates they made had held every weekend, TPM would probably not have cleared $400M! ;) lol

[flagg]

I think if AOTC had been Episode I, it would have had a serious shot at beating Titanic. But there are too many bashers around these days for AOTC to go that far.
Episode III has a chance, though, being the last SW film ever.

[JMK]

We say that now, and it may be true, but once the movie is released, the general movie going public won't be so quick to see so much death and tragedy. The repeat viewings won't be as frequent for episode 3.

[JonathanLB]

I don't hold high hopes for Episode III's box office total. It will do extremely well, as all of the SW films have done, but repeat viewings will be pitifully low compared to the other films and it'll be the ESB of the prequel trilogy: fans will declare it the best, but it will also be the lowest-selling. It should still beat TPM's box office total, though, because of inflation. Depending on how well AOTC does, of course.

I see AOTC making a huge sum, so I don't think Episode III has a shot at beating that.

The few "bashers" don't matter whatsoever, lol, never have, never will. How do you figure that matters to the box office? It doesn't.

I know so many people who think Spider-Man was an overrated pile of crap, yet that film is doing exceptionally well. The overall audience response to AOTC has been significantly stronger and better than for Spider-Man, so I see no reason to believe that AOTC shouldn't beat Spidey, which is saying a lot because that film is going to clear $400 million like a hurdler clears a pebble on the track.

$400 million is absolutely a lock for Spider-Man. I'd bet $1,000 on it, if anyone was stupid enough to take that bet.

Episode II may not even start to pass Spider-Man's weekend grosses until the fourth weekend. It's possible that AOTC could make almost $71 million next weekend during the three-day portion. It is possible. But it's not likely, either. It'll lag just $6 million or so behind. Then the third weekend, probably AOTC will lag about $3 million behind. It'll take until the 4th weekend for AOTC's gross to pass Spider-Man on the comparable frame. Yet the total still will not be greater.

The one thing we have going for us is the mid-week numbers, which should significantly outstrip Spider-Man starting immediately. Spider-Man has done great on the weekends, just good during the week (in relationship to its weekend numbers). TPM, by comparison, did better during the week than it did the weekend in comparison to other films in release (sometimes it'd be ranked 4th for the weekend, but would rise to 2nd during the week).

I see every bit of evidence so far supporting a similar trajectory to TPM for AOTC.

Both got A- grades from cinemagoers, yet if any film has the edge, it's AOTC because 4 of the 6 groups (demographics) gave it an A- or higher, whereas with TPM only 2 gave it an A- or higher. In other words, girls like AOTC a lot more, which is bound to help.

If I see a Monday gross that is as impressive as TPM's was, then I am more firmly believing that AOTC has every chance to clear $500 million.

It's way too early to tell, but if the film clears $250 million after its second weekend, including that Monday, Titanic is at least in range.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
You mean if they were too low, why didn't they start estimating higher?

Yep, that's exactly what I meant. I don't remeber if that was the case for its entire run, though. I think more like its first 4 weeks, right?

[Marcus Telcontar]

The odds of AOTC's numbers being correct: 3167-1


AGH!!!! NO!

:x :x


Actually....

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol


Oh the bad flashbacks :) what a grand troll he was



Personally, I dont think AOTC will go beyond $450 million myself. On an outside, AOTC MAY beat ANH for no 2 position. Maybe. I do think TPM will get beaten now, AOTC is a good deal ahead. So a total of $440 million is what I see as a good guess.

[JonathanLB]

I think AOTC has too much momentum not to pass TPM.

Yes Dutchy, I do think you are right, on the 5th weekend I am pretty sure that the prediction was in fact about $100,000 higher than what was actually the gross. Hehe, it was like, WHOA, did that just happen? They actually almost got it right for once?

Most of the rest of the run after that, they were close, one way or another, within $500,000 or less. Usually much less, more like in the $100,000 range.

In the first 3 weeks, though, it was a difference of +$6 million between actual and estimated. Pretty odd phenomenon, but I just think Fox was being stupid personally :D

Yikes, Jedi 3167 was one weird dude. Paranoid beyond belief. The laughing stock of the galaxy.

But man, I had a LOT of fun reading Dutchy tear him apart, in a calm manner of course, and Jedi3167 always went ballistic and said Dutchy worked for the box office tracking firm or something, ROFL!!!!!! Oh my god, those were the days. That was incredibly funny. Yes, he was annoying. Yes, he was a troll. But yes, he was also hilarious. The worst part, or funniest part, or sadest part, is that he actually believed what he was writing!

Obviously Jedi3167 was watching the last show of The X-Files huh? I bet he has the whole series memorized by heart ;) He probably even has Mulder's voice down.

[CMJ]

The Grand Troll...:)

Hey Jon give more people than Dutchy credit. We had HAL9000, yours truly ;) , vansmak(the most hysterical guy ever to post here), you, and a few others if I recall took some good shots. Vansmak I think posted the funniest thing I've ever(or will ever) read talking about the "length of the conspiracy." I remember 3167 accused Dutchy, vansmak, and me of being the same guy. :)

What a clown... It was sorta fun, in a sadistic kinda way. :)

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by CMJ
Vansmak I think posted the funniest thing I've ever(or will ever) read talking about the "length of the conspiracy." I remember 3167 accused Dutchy, vansmak, and me of being the same guy. :)

Yep, and then vansmak said something like: "No, we're not. HAL thinks you're 11, Dutchy thinks you're 13, CMJ thinks you're 12 and I think you're 14". :)

[CMJ]

LOL..I know that was beautiful. What ever happened to that guy??

My favorite post of his went something like this(wish I'd saved it).



"I admit here's the conspiracy, we all get a cut. Here's the breakdown. This post will self destruct in 5 seconds....

20th Century Fox 50M
Dutchy 30M
HAL9000 25M
CMJ 20M
Jedieb 10M
Jonathan 5M
Guy who sells the popcorn 1M
Ray Parks 2M(just so he won't kick our asses)
Me 60M(sorry guys but I have all these women to entertain)"

It was funnier than that..I promise, but that was the jist of it. Oh man I laughed SOOO hard when I read that post.

[JonathanLB]

Yes, well I liked HAL, he gave us a lot of good graphs and comparisons and whatnot. He was computer-like in his efficiency and number crunching, haha. :)

Vansmak, wow, had forgotten about him...

[Jedieb]

"HEAR YOU NOTHING THAT I SAY!!!"
How many times have I warned you people about discussing JediMulder! No good can come of it, NO GOOD AT ALL!!!!!!!!:x

[Quadinaros]

I didn't realize how appropriate this thread title would turn out to be. :lol :lol :lol