What are the odds??

[BUFFJEDI]

That Spider-man out does Starwars??

I know that there are HUNDREDS of thinks more Important (to most people) But It really bothers me to think Spidey could beat SW.

Spidey has Has NO competition for Two solid weeks, Star wars will.Spiderman is getting better reviews(can't understand that )

STarwars has TPM backlash (although I feel it was All but perfect ) more Darth MAul.


AND I know(bashers) will say Spider-mans SE are better tha EP2 although Spidermans really SUCK.


and the big one ,a nd I'll believe this until the day I DIE, Hollywood (so to Speak ) has it out for LUCAS and will go to any links to burst uncle george's bubble.


I really NEVER thought AOTC would have anything to worry about Until all the hype for spiderman and it's (supposed)record amount of Boxoffice money.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well here is one thing to chear you up regardless, Ep2 will beat Spiderman overall, I can't see Spiderman doing well overseas despite what that Marvel man said, there aren't many fans of the comics over there and SW is huge in a lot of countries and will easily do twice what Spiderman will do internationally so at least AOTC will make 850-1 Billion while Spiderman can do somewhere between 750-800 IMO domestically who knows, I think Spiderman will fall somewhere between 350-430 and I think AOTC will fall somewhere between 350-500 so it will be close and also AOTC has no competiton either Memorial Day except Spiderman which I doubt will be taking tickets away it will probably mostly be getting hold overs (people who can't get into Star Wars) and really SW first main competion is Scooby Doo, which opens second week of June (there are 3 R films that open before that and none will really hurt SW)

[JonathanLB]

The odds of that are the same as AOTC beating Titanic. In other words, they exist, but are less than 5%, or a 1 in 20 chance.

Spider-Man is nothing to worry about, though, although it has done really well that doesn't at all take away from AOTC or Star Wars or anything else.

Plus, two weekends without competition is not hard. AOTC has very little competition for FOUR weekends. It has none the first weekend (About A Boy opens in 1,100 theaters I heard, which is entirely insignificant), besides Spider-Man which I suppose some people would call competition but nobody will choose Spider-Man over AOTC unless AOTC is sold out. Most people who wanted to see Spidey already did. Now it's Star Wars time.

As for Memorial Day weekend, Enough is going to perform very poorly, despite the fact I thought it was much better than it looked. I'm giving it 2.5 stars, review up soon. Then I think Spirit is committing suicide. Not a very good movie at all and a very disappointing DreamWorks release. :( Again, 2.5 stars.

Insomnia isn't catching audiences either, although I want to see it and I think Williams' One Hour Photo also looks interesting, Insomnia is not new enough or original enough in its concepts to attract audiences. Kids have either Spirit, or Star Wars, you tell me which they're going to choose. Some young girls may go to Spirit, so that is good counter programming, but it won't hurt the SW audience at all. Insomnia might draw some adults that don't want to see AOTC, I suppose, and Enough may capture the teen female demographic, or the ones who choose not to see AOTC. Again, I don't see any of the three films taking away from the core demos.

I think people who want to see AOTC will get around to it and the competition there is not going to take away audiences, but instead just draw more people to theaters who never planned to see AOTC anyway, or people who already did see AOTC, or people who cannot get in because of sold out showings.

Then you have the following weekend and I guess the Sum of All Fears opens soon after Memorial Day weekend, whether or not that is the Friday after I haven't paid attention. I think it is around there. That may present some competition but it won't be able to beat AOTC either. I forgot when The Bourne Identity opens, but I want to say June 14. That is going to be significant competition too, but not huge. I see an opening of $30 million there. Minority Report the following weekend is the next huge film after AOTC, and that will come in at $60 million or above I think.

[BUFFJEDI]

Ahh , for some reason I thought a major movie came out the week afterO_o Makes me fill Much better.Plus I do realize that Spider-man Is a One hit wounder (Iknow spidey 2 will do good) but Not like this one,and I Really fill Harry Potter 2 is pretty much going to just do OK (his hype is dying).I feel those films are like Titanic here today gone tomrrow a where SW is forever.But seeing any film ahead (fluke or not )just BUGS the a Crap out of me.

Btw Titanic really is a great movie, but still a fluke (that is IF box office takes are not fixed as I feel they are)

[BUFFJEDI]

Do you reall think minority report will do well? Look lack luster to me,looks ..well dirty (not porn dirty)and plus Tom cruise Sux :(

BTW . I heard Lucas started dream works Than sold it ,is that true?

[JonathanLB]

The ability to duplicate success with nearly identical, well, success is nearly impossible and never achieved outside of the Star Wars Saga. James Bond, Batman, the Alien series, the Star Trek movies, all have had their problems.

LOTR: TTT will do very well because people loved the first movie, but Harry Potter 2 is not going to do at all as well. It will still make a lot. It should have no problem clearing $200 million and probably reaching to $225 million to $250 million, but especially given slightly higher ticket prices, that is not at all as impressive as the first. The hype was huge for that first film and regardless of whether or not it let people down, and it did let them down, the second film just cannot become that cultural event like the first one.

Each SW film always has been a huge deal. The success of ESB, the first sequel, was actually less than ROTJ and TPM, so far from the continuing films becoming less and less potent, they are actually performing better if anything. Despite these massive entries like HP, Spider-Man, and LOTR, no sequel has ever made as much as The Empire Strikes Back and here we are 22 years later (ROTJ and TPM are not direct sequels to the original, which is why they are not included there). Perhaps TTT will have no problem ousting ESB, but it still remains to be seen until it actually happens.

I think Star Wars has nothing to fear and if anything this should be a bit exciting as I believe AOTC is going to become the highest grossing Star Wars film yet...

[Darth23]

It'd say they odds are fifty-fifty that Spiderman will finish ahead of AOTC .

On the TPM dvd Lucas talks abot why TPM wasn't going to beat Titanic, and he says that Titanic was a phenomenon like the first Star Wars movie and like ET. - something you can't really plan for that takes on a life of its own. He kind of implys that none of the Star Wars movies will do this because they are known quantities - they can't take anyone by surprise.

Spiderman could be close to another ET ot Titanic. Maybe not quite Titanic, but the character has been around fo a long time, the moovie appeals to the teens & twentysomethings as well as families and kids, it does a good job of giving the peopel what they want plus, imo, by following the established Peter Parker story if gives a little bit more, it had the standard big movie budget and a big marketing push.

I think it will have Shrek/Toy Story 2/TPM type legs for the rest of the summer. (at least)

I can't judge AOTC yet because I haven't seen it. I'm expecting it to basically perform like TPM - same general range with a big opening, successful holiday weekends, fairly low drops and lots od repeat viewings.

So both movies could finish in the low 400's which means it could be a crapshoot to see which one finishes on top.

[JonathanLB]

lol, there is absolutely no way that Spider-Man or any other film this year will come close to topping Star Wars. No way, and Spider-Man is not a Titanic, nor is it an E.T. I think AOTC is going to show how far ticket prices have come and blow Spider-Man away so badly in its first weekend that there will not be any more talk of this nonsense, lol.

Buff, Minority Report is going to be awesome. It's a Steven Spielberg film man, and Tom Cruise is an awesome actor who has appeared in many excellent films from Top Gun to Jerry Maguire to Mission: Impossible and its sequel and beyond. He is a huge, very good actor.

Anyway, though, Minority Report will not have the ability to hurt Star Wars much. That's simply too far into its run to make a substantial difference. Star Wars will still be hanging around doing well and MR will find its success too.

The huge benefit here is that the first weekend for AOTC will be like a holiday weekend, yet the second actually IS a holiday weekend that is going to help immensely.

I think AOTC will have a great chance to clear $500 million.

[Quadinaros]

Originally posted by Ravishing Jedi
BTW . I heard Lucas started dream works Than sold it ,is that true?

No. You're probably thinking of Pixar. :|

[darth_mcbain]

To quote a smuggler we all know and love...

"Never tell me the odds!"

For what its worth, the IMDB has posted a poll with this exact subject and so far, Clones is in the lead.

[Jedieb]

Before Spidey was released, did anyone think we'd be HAVING this conversation? I always thought Spidey had a shot at the #2 spot for the year. That's not even a question now, the only question is whether it will finish #1 or #2. I think it'll finish #2 and have nothing to be ashamed about. It's a shame that some people can't give props to a film without taking shots at it or a rival. Here's something to ponder, we could very well have TWO films gross over $400M this year! Freakin' unbelievable!

[JonathanLB]

Jedieb, I've had this problem with BOTH of the new Star Wars films so far. It's pretty frustrating.

On one hand, I thought The Matrix was honestly one of the 10 best movies I had ever seen and, really, I am not alone. All of my friends feel the same way. I'm also in that correct demographic and age group to be a huge Matrix fan, haha, but no really, most sci-fi fans really appreciated the film and I was not an exception. Yet at the same time, they started this whole TPM vs. The Matrix battle and I didn't feel like doing that at all. I loved both movies, TPM much more because it's Star Wars, but you cannot very well defend TPM without assaulting The Matrix on some levels. For instance, I still often say, come on, the effects in The Matrix are just revised versions of Gap commercials, which is true. So when need be, if it's SW vs. anything else, I have to defend SW, yet it's still obnoxious because I appreciated The Matrix a lot and, competition or not, I didn't feel any need to bash it. I love that movie.

Same now goes with Spider-Man. Although I think Spider-Man is significantly below The Matrix and TPM (I'd give both of them 100/100, Spidey gets a 97/100). I love Spider-Man, despite the nitpicking of some fans and sci-fi/fantasy buffs, but at the same time, come on, Star Wars BLOWS Spider-Man away!!!

Check out this Cinescape quote:

"The entire third act is one massive action set piece, the likes of which remain unrivaled by any film of this variety."

That was only from the B+ review, NOT the A- one, lol. I swear, moviegoers are going to love AOTC. At the year's end, there won't be any question whether Spider-Man or AOTC is better, it'll be between AOTC and TTT for most people... and then it's just a matter of your personal preference, to be honest. I love LOTR, but the SW story is more captivating to me.

[JMK]

Is Spider-Man really on pace to make it to 400M? Even after AOTC comes out?

[Jedieb]

I think it's on pace to get very, very close. AOTC may not hit it as hard as many people think. Because AOTC is opening on fewer screens than films like Spidey and HP, there's bound to be huge numbers of people who get turned away from sold out shows. I think Spidey will pick up a lot of those ticket sales. So Spidey's 3rd weekend may have a less than 50% drop. After that if it has steady declines ala FOTR it could easily pass $350 and make its way towards $400M. It's surprised us all already, it may just keep doing so.

[JonathanLB]

At this point, $400 million wouldn't surprise me. Of course if you told me that before it opened, I'd say you were absolutely nuts and had no idea how the box office works ;) lol.

Actually if you said it would make $300 million I'd have said the same thing...

I say if a movie that we all thought was going to make about $200 million can make it to $400, then a movie like AOTC that we all think can make $400 million easily could certainly make it to $500 or $550 million.

Spider-Man will fall pretty hard with AOTC opening. There simply is not room for both films to play extremely well at the same time, but Spider-Man will make a lot nevertheless. I do see it falling about 50% to 55%. That's not at all horrible. That's very good, in fact, given the competition is the heaviest of the year, hehe. :)

I agree there will be spillover, but I think most people KNOW a Star Wars movie is going to be super busy and know to show up early. Those who do not are also just as likely to buy later tickets to see the film. That is what most often happens. When I was at Evergreen last Saturday, a lot of people in line behind me wanted to see the (sold out) 4:45 Spider-Man, but they talked and most of them were like, "Well ok we can get tickets to the 7:30 showing and come back then." I think that is how most people think, not just, "Well Star Wars is sold out at the 4:20, so instead of going to the 5:30, I guess we'll just go see Spider-Man at 5." LOL, no. Most people who came there with the intention of buying AOTC tickets will buy those tickets, even if it's for a different showing.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I think that saying that AOTC is a certainty to beat Spider Man is wrong. I'm not so sure that AOTC will.

Spiderman is going so much better than anyone expected - who can honestly say what will happen?

[JonathanLB]

I really think that is pretty inaccurate.

We aren't talking about a Titanic here. With Titanic, the film wasn't declining at all and there was NO saying how long it could hold up without falling below $20 million. Really nobody could say, and it just kept going.

Spider-Man, on the other hand, has ALREADY fallen behind TPM's pace! If you look at Spider-Man's Monday compared to TPM's Tuesday (because Mon. was Memorial Day) following its second weekend, TPM was running well ahead of that. Spider-Man has to clear $33 million this weekend to remain ahead of TPM's weekend pace, which I think it will barely do.

But you have something like this:

Spidey: $115M
TPM: $64.8M

Huge difference here.

Spidey: $72M
TPM: $50M

Closing...

Next weekend, something like:

Spidey: $34M
TPM: $33M

Actually it could turn this weekend and favor TPM, but in the fourth weekend Spider-Man is unlikely to keep pace with TPM, same goes for the fifth, sixth, seventh, etc. Not to mention it is losing pretty badly during the week and loses a bit of ground.

IMO it is nearly certain AOTC finishes with an equal or greater total gross compared to TPM. Ticket price inflation means that if AOTC made just as much as TPM, TPM would have outdone AOTC by about 18% in ticket sales. That's very significant.

So the question, then, is not directly whether Spider-Man can beat AOTC, but whether Spider-Man can beat TPM, which it can't, and then can AOTC beat TPM? Yes, and it will.

There is no question at all that AOTC finishes ahead of Spider-Man.