Weekend 2 of Spiderman

[Super Wookiee]

"Working in favor of Spider-Man are good reviews, excellent word-of-mouth, and a lack of new competition. The Sam Raimi film is still the only game in town and this week's free press coverage of its box office records will keep the public interested. A decline of 40-45% should occur which would give Spider-Man roughly $66M for the weekend and an eye-popping $220M in ten days." -BoxOfficeGuru

Personally i think its gonna fall alot harder than that. The hype for Episode 2 has gone into over drive this week with all the new spoilers, reviews and interviews hitting the TV and the Next. Conversation on my site about spiderman has already died. I think it might fall +50%, especially after that massive opening.

[JMK]

Still, it will probably have over 200M in 10 days, which is sick!

[Super Wookiee]

yes.

But It will struggle to get much over 300 million though. Starting Thursday everybody will forget Spiderman ever existed.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Lee is more realistic he is saying it will drop like 52% and fall to 55 million that I think is more likely.

[Super Wookiee]

yeah me too.

[Master Yoghurt]

Spiderman made $8.3M on wednesday, a 16.5% drop from Tuesday. Curently, it is on a pace to hit 200M on sunday.

[Master Yoghurt]

Spiderman made $7,466,380 on Thursday, down 10,2% from Wednesday

[JonathanLB]

Thinking logically here, about people and not about numbers, isn't it true that however many people are going to see a movie will see it, regardless of how many choose to see it immediately?

I mean, if a movie opens really large, that only means there is less left to make in subsequent weekends, IMO. That's why no film with a huge opening has good staying power, except for like Jurassic Park, Independence Day, and The Phantom Menace, but those are the exceptions that prove the rule. There are many, many more that fell 45% to 55% easily... or worse.

I think Spider-Man makes $55 million this weekend, still VERY good! Nobody should complain about that, it'd be such an INCREDIBLE second weekend. With a saturation release like Spider-Man, saying it has "bad staying power" is just not really appropriate because people LOVE this movie, but it doesn't matter. If it opens so large, it cannot have great staying power.

The potential for staying power and the scale changes as the grosses rise. If Titanic made four times its opening weekend gross, that would be pretty average, at best, but if Spider-Man made four times its opening weekend gross I would call that incredible staying power!!! $460 million.

So for any opening in the $85M to $115M range, I'd say if the film can do 3 to 3.5 times its opening, it's doing pretty darn well.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I hope you are right that would mean that I would win weekend two of the box office contest :p Of course it really sank I guess Darth23 would win because he is now the lowest guess.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
If Titanic made four times its opening weekend gross, that would be pretty average, at best, but if Spider-Man made four times its opening weekend gross I would call that incredible staying power!!! $460 million.

Or if Spider-Man will have Titanic's staying power and make 21 times its opening it will make $2.4 BILLION domestically. :eek

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Spiderman dropped according to early estamites 19.5 for Friday that is a 51% drop from last Friday so that means that it should take it somewhere between 54-58 for the weekend hich is right where I figured it would do.

[Dutchy]

WTF did you find those numbers?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here
http://www.leesmovieinfo.com/

[JonathanLB]

"Or if Spider-Man will have Titanic's staying power and make 21 times its opening it will make $2.4 BILLION domestically."

ROFL! Yeah, that's going to happen :)

That would require everyone in the United States seeing Spider-Man twice, basically. 500 million tickets sold * $5 = $2.5 billion. Problem is, there are more than 250M people, tickets are more than $5, but that calculation is somewhat close, so you get the idea. ;)

The figures for Spider-Man? I got mine from ShowBizData... I still subscribe to that ripoff service.

This is funny because my prediction for Friday was exactly $19.5 million and it hit $19.6 or something according to ShowBizData. Wow! Well I guess it was an easy prediction to make.

This is something we won't be seeing for AOTC, a 50% fall, then again you also won't see a $40 million Friday opening weekend ;)

I am curious to see how AOTC does, really curious, this is the most fun part of a new SW film besides the movie itself, haha.

My early predictions:

9 days -- crosses $200 million ($115 through Sun, $14M Monday, $12M Tuesday, $11M Wednesday, $10M Thursday, $70 million the next weekend, helped by Sunday not being followed by a workday).

10 days, through weekend 2: $232 million.

Chance at crossing $250M on the 11th day, Monday, Memorial Day, but most likely at $249 million. Will definitely cross on the 12th day.

3rd weekend gross is $42 million, down 40% (worst decline of its theatrical run). $310M after the third weekend, which includes $19M during the three-day week from Tues-Thurs. It crosses $300M on the 17th day of release, 12 days faster than TPM.

[JonathanLB]

Wow, I just got back from my 9th showing of Spider-Man and it was totally full!

Haha, j/k. I've seen it only twice.

But I was going to say that I was buying my ticket to "Enough" (sneak preview tonight at 7:30) after I got out of a sneak to Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron and the clock read 4:26. They just sold the last 3 seats to the 4:45 Spider-Man and my theater has 3 screens out of 13 playing Spider-Man. So.... it is obviously doing extremely well! Pretty amazing to sell out a matinee showing that is like the 3rd near its time (auditorium C).

[Dutchy]

$67.76M estimated for Spider's 2nd weekend. That's only a 41% drop. Pretty amazing.

[Darth23]

<a href=http://www.entdata.com/bonews/bonewsframes.html>Box Office News</a> is reporting an estimate of 72 million. :eek (even MORE Amazing).

Where does the $67 million figure come from?

[JonathanLB]

Interesting, so what was the Saturday gross? I assume it must not have fallen as much then.

See this is why I said AOTC should make $70 million in its second weekend no sweat at all. It's a Memorial Day weekend too.

I think with Spider-Man doing so well right now, this is just a clear sign how much potential AOTC has, as Variety says: "Clones will soar to the furthest extremes of the B.O. stratosphere."

When Attack of the Clones opens, Spider-Man is box office history. Enjoy it while it lasts, Spidey, the Jedi Knights are going to cut you a few new holes!

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Darth23
<a href=http://www.entdata.com/bonews/bonewsframes.html>Box Office News</a> is reporting an estimate of 72 million. :eek (even MORE Amazing).

Where does the $67 million figure come from?

Here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2002/19.htm but they changed it into $72M I see now. Wow, that's just a 37% drop.

[Dutchy]

Could it be Spider hit $200M on Saturday already? The fastest to $200M record would be 9 days then instead of 10 (Sunday).

[JonathanLB]

Yes, I think probably so.

Well, Spider-Man will hit $400 million probably. I don't know why anyone was doubting it'd make $300M, though, after the large opening I mean. That was like, duh...

I think moviegoers must just be really anxious and excited to see new movies or whatever because, wow, this year is WAY above last year already and I think there is definitely great potential for AOTC here. It seems like moviegoing is actually up this year, not just because of the film product, but just in general. Perhaps this is the perfect year to take advantage of that for Star Wars.

Spider-Man cannot help but make $350M+ now, I'd say, so Dutchy do you really think AOTC will not even make as much as Spider-Man? Hehe, I think you will most certainly be wrong about that...

[Quadinaros]

Indeed, according to daily estimates at Lee's, Spidey hit $200.8 million after Saturday.

I smell fudge. It went from $19.6 on Friday to $29.6 on Saturday. That's a leap even better than most kid flicks can attain.

I'm not disputing the estimated total, just doubting that it really broke $200 mil. on Saturday. O_o

[JonathanLB]

Weird...

What I suspect is that opening day, last Friday, was artificially padded by the comic book geeks showing up and all of the die-hard fans, so the rise from Fri-to-Sat was only very small, but this weekend it was much more like a normal rise perhaps, thus the decline Saturday was only about 30% or something and it was 51% or whatever Friday.

Well, good thing for AOTC: The Spider-Killer. I cannot wait to smash this thing to kingdom come now. :)

[Quadinaros]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Well, good thing for AOTC: The Spider-Killer. I cannot wait to smash this thing to kingdom come now. :)

Hehe. I really think this all bodes well for AOTC. It shows that people are excited to see movies about heroes and good vs. evil. And let's face it, AOTC is a sprawling epic compared to Spidey. This should be an interesting box office battle as the summer unfolds. :D

One thing is clear. The two biggest movies of 2002 are opening less than 2 weeks apart. :cool

[JonathanLB]

I agree.

Sorry LOTR fans, sorry HP fans, your movies stand not ONE snowball's chance in hell of beating Spidey. No way, no how. LOTR will not even come marginally close to beating Spider-Man's gross.

This year, it's the year of the Spider and the Jedi Knight :)

I was just thinking... I couldn't resist:

"We have a new enemy"
"Spider-Man."
"He could destroy us."
"He's just a boy."
"The son of Parker must not become a superhero."
"If he could be turned, he would be a valuable ally"
"Yes, yes, he would be a great asset. Can it be done?"
"He will join us or die, master!"

:)

[Dutchy]

According to Boxoffice Mojo the fast to $200M record indeed now is set to 9 days by Spider-Man: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2002/19.htm

If Spider indeed fell 37%, and I still find that hard to believe, and it will keep falling like that it'll make $410M in total. That's just a calculation, not a prediction.

As for AOTC, yes, $350M seems on the low side now. I made that prediction before Spider and before anything was known about AOTC. I made that prediction coz I don't see AOTC beating TPM. Remember, AOTC will be treated as a sequel to TPM, and they just don't perform as good as their original, usually. Now, with the quite positive reviews and Spider-Man's amazing grosses, I think it'll make more than $350M. I still don't see it outperforming TPM, but it has a shot at $400M, I'd say.

Another thing is, I don't think AOTC will be better than TPM for the general audience nor for Star Wars fans. TPM had an impressive boxoffice run and no matter what people said or wrote about it, people apparently loved it. They'll love AOTC as well, I'm sure, but not more than TPM, I think. Again: AOTC is TPM's sequel.

Right now, I'd say $390M for AOTC.

[Master Yoghurt]

If the 72M number is correct, that represents 37% drop. That is just mindboggling fantastic after such an insane first weekend.

[JonathanLB]

"TPM had an impressive boxoffice run and no matter what people said or wrote about it, people apparently loved it."

Nice, Dutchy, I like that quote :) I agree with you!! Wow, I'm writing this down so that we can remember we agreed on something else (this is a rare occasion huh?) :)

I think AOTC is going to make more than TPM, but I don't know whether it will actually do better. Remember, Dutchy, if AOTC makes $435 million that doesn't mean it did better than TPM. That just means it made slightly more money. With the huge ticket price inflation, $5.08 in 1999 versus almost $6 today.

We'll see, it'll be fun to observe how well AOTC does, just as it always is for big movies I think. The box office is just a fun thing to watch in general, like sports scores I guess. At least, I love the box office tracking :)

[Darth23]

I think we're talking 400 milllion easily now.

Spidermans performance kind of blows away the idea that all those big movies last year were dropping 50%+ simply because they had such huge openings. (Mummy Returns, Pearl Harbor, Tomb Raider, Rush Hour 2, Fast and the Furious, AP2, POTA, JP3)

If a movie is popular enough it will fade slowly - no matter how big it opens.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
"TPM had an impressive boxoffice run and no matter what people said or wrote about it, people apparently loved it."

Nice, Dutchy, I like that quote :) I agree with you!! Wow, I'm writing this down so that we can remember we agreed on something else (this is a rare occasion huh?) :)

Yup, definitely rare. :)


I think AOTC is going to make more than TPM, but I don't know whether it will actually do better. Remember, Dutchy, if AOTC makes $435 million that doesn't mean it did better than TPM. That just means it made slightly more money. With the huge ticket price inflation, $5.08 in 1999 versus almost $6 today.

Of course, I know, but at all means I don't see AOTC beat TPM.


We'll see, it'll be fun to observe how well AOTC does, just as it always is for big movies I think. The box office is just a fun thing to watch in general, like sports scores I guess. At least, I love the box office tracking :)

Yes! I was just gonna say that these days are VERY interesting for us box office fans. :)

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, hehe, there is something cool about seeing really large numbers. I get depressed during the off months when I have to look at something pitiful like the #1 movie for the weekend making $9.87 million or something. I'm just like, man, what the heck? That's so boring... lol.

Well now I guess I'm kind of curious about MIB2 and Minority Report, both of which I think will be pretty huge. Probably neither will have trouble clearing $200M. I don't think MIB2 looks as good as the first for some reason, we'll see, but I'm still hoping. I thought the first was a lot of fun.

I agree with you, though, Dutchy. 50% declines are not just guaranteed because a film opens large. You can open large and still hold up, although I'd say it would really silly to expect a film that opens at $114 million to fall only 20% or 25%, for instance, you'd have to think that 37% is dang remarkable. Personally I think 45% would be excellent staying power for a movie that had 20 million people see it in just the first three days.

A film that opens at $20 million, though, must display better staying power to become a success. 20 to 25% declines are very good for a film that opens in that range, while 45% would be pretty horrible. So, I still think you have to consider the magnitude of the opening when you consider the percentage decline. You cannot say flat out, "Any film that drops 40% from first to second weekend is not doing well and has bad staying power." That's just too much of a blanket statement.

You can't even say that a film that falls 0% is showing great staying power. Not if it made $250,000 in limited release from 25 theaters and the next weekend added 7 theaters and made another $250,000. In that case, it's just business as usual. You wouldn't expect the larger theaters to show declines when the film is that scarce. So, it's just all a matter of situation really and each film has to be guaged separately.

As you said Dutchy, if Spider-Man had Titanic-legs, it would make more money in the U.S. than Titanic made worldwide, by far! Lol, which is not realistic or possible.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well LOTR and HP will both beat in WW numbers Spiderman just won't do very well overseas, it will probably do 750 WW total, HP will make another 800-900, and TTT will do at least 800 much like the last one, I have my doubt it will make 400 that is just very hard, I also think that estimate is a little high, I bet they are off becuse of Mother's day people don't go to many movies on Mother's Day.

[JonathanLB]

Agreed, Car, from what I hear Spider-Man is not so big overseas. It'll do very well though because it is a big blockbuster. It will still, as you said, probably make about $750M total, maybe even $800M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Not that 750 is bad either that would be great I would think, comic book movies just don't do well overseas, I guess its more of an American thing or something. I think AOTC will be #1 with over a billion followed by probably HP2 (because he is so popular WW) with 850, TTT 800-850, and Spiderman 750-800, also does anybody think that it is possible that we could have 4 films over 300 (AOTC, spiderman, HP 2, and TTT), and maybe 2 films over 400 (AOTC, and Spiderman) that would be amazing but it really shows how much inflation and all of these new theaters have changed the industry.

[JonathanLB]

Geez, yes.. Wow. That's a good point.

It was a huge deal when in 1999, I think it was, we had 4 films above $200 million. What is happening? $200 million now is almost pathetic, lol, it's like no longer worthy of a media mention even.

[BUFFJEDI]

DO not trust Box Office numbers!!

[Jedieb]

I've had a very busy weekend. Spent some time at the in-laws, saw the D-Day Memorial in Bedford, and the wife and I managed to sneak in a viewing of Spiderman. I have to say I was very pleased. A very good comic book film that stayed true to the origins and spirit of the comic. (Nice to see that quick cameo by Stan Lee.) Yes, a few things were changed, but they were necessary and I thought they made the film better. They kept so many things in line with the comic that it was a real treat for me. Even the final confrontation between Spidey and the Goblin followed the original comic. We went to a 1:45PM showing and the theater was around half full. But it Spidey was playing on 3 of the 4 screens the theater had. If these numbers hold this is a very impressive showing for Spidey. I made my prediction for this week's contest on a decline of only 40%, but it looks like Spidey's going to beat that. There should be no doubt this movie is going to make over $300M now. $400M is a very real possibility.

[Darth23]

Originally posted by JonathanLB

I agree with you, though, Dutchy. 50% declines are not just guaranteed because a film opens large. You can open large and still hold up, although I'd say it would really silly to expect a film that opens at $114 million to fall only 20% or 25%, for instance, you'd have to think that 37% is dang remarkable. Personally I think 45% would be excellent staying power for a movie that had 20 million people see it in just the first three days.


I think you menat to say I agree with you DARTH23.....

:p

[JonathanLB]

I thought Dutchy made the comment about this shows how not every opening that is huge has a decline of 50%? If not, my bad... I meant to say Dutchy, but perhaps I didn't read it right and you made that point.

[Darth23]

Originally posted by Darth23
I think we're talking 400 milllion easily now.

Spidermans performance kind of blows away the idea that all those big movies last year were dropping 50%+ simply because they had such huge openings. (Mummy Returns, Pearl Harbor, Tomb Raider, Rush Hour 2, Fast and the Furious, AP2, POTA, JP3)

If a movie is popular enough it will fade slowly - no matter how big it opens.

:p :p :p :p :p

[JonathanLB]

My bad, I was dropped on my head as a kid, so ignore me. :)

Haha, no actually that is true, though. I fell off the counter when I was like 1 or less or something, my dad wasn't watching me carefully enough, and there you have it.

Nah, but I was outside today for 5 hours, such nice weather. 3 hours of basketball, 2 hours of sunbathing, plus 1.5 hours of pumping iron, so I'm beat. I just read it wrong. :)

[Darth23]

Excuses excuses.

You played the Box Office games yet?

[JonathanLB]

Been too lazy so far, hehe :)

Hey I read something interesting today at a story linked through TFN.

I suspected that the reason AOTC has a Thursday opening is because last time the Wed. to Thurs. drop was pretty substantial (although that Thurs. gross was still easily a record for a non-holiday, so the media was just being stupid). Well, sure enough Lucas says that himself in an article on the Atlanta Journal and Constitution site. He observes the fall last time and decided to pack it into 4 days this time. I think that's a good move, even though it doesn't matter that much, don't let the media be stupid again. Wait, too late. They already are, but still it was a solid move.

Now you're going to have a super massive opening day gross followed by a Friday, which is the weekend. One of my best friends, Sean, doesn't think he can see it Thursday even though he REALLY wants to because he's at Cal. Tech. and he just cannot get out to a theater that day. So he will see it Friday, as will many other people who are still quite big fans, but just cannot make it opening day.

I came up with some numbers yesterday that seemed to make sense to me.

TPM made $10.9 million on its first Monday. With inflation and a slightly greater number of theaters and screens, it would stand to reason that AOTC makes about $14 million Monday, maybe $15 million. The drop will be the same as last time from Sunday to Monday, I predict. So double the $14 million figure and you have $28 million Sunday. I think that would be $34 million Saturday and $25 million Friday (Sunday always was the 2nd biggest of the weekend days with TPM). So there you have it, $87 million. It also will make $35 million to $38 million on opening day. :)

Haha, no seriously I don't know, but this is going to be really interesting!

AOTC has 80% as many screens as Spider-Man. 0.8 * $115 = $92 million. Cheaper child tickets will lower the gross compared to Spider-Man which sweks slightly older because of its PG-13 rating, however this is directly cancelled out by 10 a.m. showings on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at many or most theaters and Spider-Man did not have these, to my knowledge. Also, Star Wars screenings will be slightly more full during early afternoon times than Spider-Man was (even though it made so much, many showings were not entirely sold out). So there you have it. $92 million opening weekend.

So that's my range, $87-92M, but I honestly think it could even be $75 million and be fine ;)

[Dutchy]

Well, let's type it anyway, I guess. :)

AOTC opens in 80% of Spider-Man's screen. Will it make 80% of its opening gross?

They can't be quite compared, because Spider opened on a Friday and AOTC opens on a Thursday. AOTC will have lost some of its weekend potention because of its Thursday opening. Or won't it? Well, with an 80% opening it will gross $31M on Thursday, $92M for the 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun) and $123M for the 4-day weekend (Thu-Sun).

Actually, that looks quite believable.

But Thursday is a weekday and opening on Thursday will probably lower its weekend tally, at least something. But if Spider-Man can gross $72M it its SECOND weekend, AOTC should be able to gross quite a bit more.

So... let's say, $30M, $85M, $115M?

[Dutchy]

Spider's final 2nd weekend gross is $71,417,527, by the way. So that's a 38% drop, which is incredibly low.

[Super Wookiee]

Star Wars will really carve into Spiderman's numbers next weekend though. I don't really see how Spiderman can avoid a massive drop this weekend.... Bye Bye Spidey, its been fun but now its time for you to leave! lol

[JonathanLB]

Hahaha, yeah. Spider-Man will crumble 55% at least. There is not room for both films in the marketplace in this case because they are entirely too similar.

I don't agree, Dutchy, that the first day being a weekday will hurt anything. In fact I think there are enough people taking that day off to fill most of the auditoriums and also I still think there are probably plenty of younger kids going to the matinee screenings. We shall see, but with TPM's opening day that seemed to be realistic. Also, remember the midnight showings add a lot of extra showings total. I think 1/3 of the theaters, so around 1,000, have midnight showings. That helps make up for the fact that it occurs on a weekday...

We'll see, though, I say opening day is between $30 and $35 million but more like $35M seems likely. Either way would be fine.

[Dutchy]

$5,211,249 for Monday.

[Darth23]

Down 50% from the previous Monday.

-----------------------------------------------


Memorial Day weekend should be very interesting, I think.

AOTC will carve into SPiderman, but I think Spidey will carve into AOTC a bit as well.

Plus when there are sell-outs Spidey is a prettyy easy choice for people to make as an alternative movie.

Much more than Notting Hill.

[JonathanLB]

At this point in its run, Spider-Man will not be any competition. The people who see it now are the stragglers and will probably do the same slacking off for AOTC, so they'll catch it in like week 3 or 4 or whatever.

AOTC should remain very strong for four weeks. I think it will be #1 for four weekends with over $30 million each weekend.

Something like $87M, $70M, $42M, $31M, etc.

[Dutchy]

$11.45M estimated for its 3rd Friday. That's only a 42% drop from last Friday. Note that Spider-Man dropped 49% from its opening Friday to its 2nd.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Still I expect a huge drop from last satruday, it made 29 million last saturday I don't see it making 17 million or something, it will do somewhere between 12-15 for saturday and probably 9-11 on Sunday giving it somewhere between 32-37 which is about a 50% drop which I knew would happen for its third weekend.