I have to ask fellow RPers this.....

[Jedi Master Leia Solo]

I was listening to some morning radio show by me and they had some critic :rolleyes talk about AOTC after a premier showing. I did not hear all of it. He really didn't bash it or nothing...BUT...he claims that he feels that SPIDERMAN's opening week sales will NOT be beat by AOTC. Just like how ( >_< ewww...dare I say it) TITANIC beat EP1.

Ok...guys & gals...what's your opinon.

Personally..I think he is another STUPID critic!!:grumble

[TheHolo.Net]

Eyes the actual content of this post and then looks at the Boxoffice Forum.

Hmmmmmm.

[Jedi Master Leia Solo]

:lol I knew you say that. But I wanted an RPERS view;)

Please!!!!:angel ;)

[TheHolo.Net]

Well, I did leave it here, but I moved it there for a second so that I could leave a redirect to it in that forum. They are the ones that know this type of subject best. :)

[Taylor Millard]

:lol Well we'll have to see how it goes. If I'm lucky, I'll see it twice opening weekend. :)

But I am moving there, but we'll see, right?

[Sorus]

Spiderman is hella good though ..

[Jedi Master Leia Solo]

Don't get me wrong. I am sure Spiderman is really good! I want to see it. But...geez..he seem so critical, as they always are about SW movies. Ya know.:\

[Sorus]

True, true. Don't listen to critics anyway, none of 'em know what they're talking about. Just go see it and enjoy it. The figures it makes in the box office are unimportant if YOU liked the movie.

[CMJ]

I can almost guarantee you AOTC won't beat the opening of "Spiderman".

[Sorus]

Because Spiderman/Marvel Comics has a bigger following than Star Wars?

[CMJ]

Not at all. I don't think those of you that don't follow Box Office religiously like us in the BO forum know all the factors that come into play....

Here...this is a great article by David Poland(one of the BEST entertainment journalists there is).

*****************
What does the estimated $114 million start for Spider-Man mean?

Why beat around the bush by writing about anything else first, even if Mike Ovitz’ exit from AMG is a bigger story in the overall framework of the industry? Of course, your never-modest correspondent might point out that the Spider-Man story is really just an extension of the ongoing insanity in this industry as covered in this column for the last couple of years in particular.

The story of this weekend is not likely to be one that lasts very long. It’s not so much a matter of Star Wars: Episode Two beating the Spider-number in two weeks. The truth is, it is really up to George Lucas and Fox to decide whether the record falls. Yes, I am saying that George Lucas can decide for himself whether he wants to have the next record-breaking opening. All he and Fox has to do is to allow enough theaters enough flexibility to show Attack of the Clones on more than 6000 actual screens, just as Sony did on this opening weekend. (The screen count/per-screen statistic is now the most abused number in box office analysis.)

Everything else that LucasFilm and Fox have done in preparation for Clones is right on target. Besides masterminding the buzz on the supposedly independent internet and newsmagazines, they have now taken the amazing step of opening the media floodgates by screening the film for the press this Tuesday, more than a week before opening night and close enough to the Spidey opening to shift the buzz a full week ahead of schedule. There have even been reports that Fox has released the embargo rules – something they have since denied. However, the fact that the alleged memo freed the press to review as of this Wednesday – the day after the press screenings – suggest that it was real… and that Fox is expecting the door to open regardless of what the rules are. After all, what else can be expected after last week’s Time Magazine review by Jess Cagle, which misleadingly suggested that Time’s film critic, Richard Schickel, had seen and approved the picture, and the parade of internet reviews that has started appearing, as per LucasFilm’s plan (they all saw the film weeks ago). Don’t even get me started on the most clever (ab)use of Ain’t It Cool since DreamWorks used the site to beat the Gladiator drum early.

But what about Spider-Man? Oops… I already forgot about the record-shattering weekend. Spider-Man is a good movie. The most amazing part of this weekend’s record-breaker – and I know some of you will get a quizzical look on your face when you read this – is how quiet it was. Yes, there was a whole lot of cross promotion and hype. But it was nothing in comparison to the Harry Potter hype… not even close. More pointedly, I was floored by how easy it was to get into the movie this weekend. My nephew, who went to see Spidey as part of a birthday party on Sunday, was amazed by the line that snaked down the street. But it was a third the size of the lines for Episode One and a quarter the size of weekend lines for Batman. And seats were available for a 4:15 show. You’ll notice that most of the “look at these sell-out” stories are about Saturday.

Sorry, Spider-Man just isn’t one of those industry-changing franchises. Of course, it’s not X-Men either… solid but not stunning. It’s a terrific franchise. To my mind’s eye, it’s a better franchise than the Harry Potter franchise (fewer percentage players with smaller percentages for the those who exist). In some ways, it is better than the Lord of The Rings franchise (it’s not limited to three films and the sequels don’t inherently have to feel like continuations). But it’s just not Star Wars or Indiana Jones or even a Batman. It just isn’t. The $411 million worldwide scored by Batman thirteen years ago would likely be over a billion these days. Of course, the production and P&A costs would be treble as well.

Remember, the film whose record Spider-Man just broke, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, had a hard time passing the $300 million mark domestically after a $90 million opening weekend and no major franchise opposition (Lord of the Rings) for over a month. And while Lord of the Rings opened with a little better than half the number that Potter did, their final domestic tally will be separated by less than $10 million total.

Titanic, the highest domestic and worldwide grosser of all time, opened to under $29 million. And Star Wars: Episode One, which opened to less than $65 million, a number that lingers in the record books behind four separate openings from last summer (Pearl Harbor, Planet of the Apes, The Mummy Returns and Rush Hour 2), but still became the fourth highest grossing film domestically, the second highest domestic grosser ever if you don’t count re-releases and the third highest grossing film of all time worldwide. We can all whine and bitch about Jar Jar Binks, but understand something… audiences did not turn their backs on The Phantom Menace and its box office was not a phenomena of a massive opening weekend. Episode One was the leggiest franchise movie since Jurassic Park hit in 1993… back when second-run houses actually made money and a film could run for over a year in first and second run.

Of course, I feel a little silly dissing Spidey just as it becomes the first film with a $100 million weekend. But it’s about perspective. Sony execs are quite smart not to start guessing, as Warner Bros. execs did, that Spider-Man could end up doing Titanic numbers. They know that a domestic haul of $350 million is more likely and that $400 million would be a stunning triumph in today’s (or any day’s) marketplace. Chasing Titanic’s $1.8 billion theatrical haul will require a true freak of movie nature. Harry Potter is now #2 all-time, coming just short of the billion-dollar mark. Think about that. The number two film of all time is more than 44 percent behind number one.

So, does Spider-Man have a legitimate shot at $1 billion worldwide? Not really.. Attack of the Clones is the only film with a legitimate shot at the billion mark this year. My bet is that the next Harry Potter movie will drop slightly and the next Lord of the Rings movie will rise slightly. If there really was a disappointment factor on The Phantom Menace and if Attack of the Clones is really that much better, making up the $78 million that TPM was short of a billion shouldn’t be that difficult. Additionally, Clones has the advantage, as did Spidey, of a 50 cent ticket increase across much of the nation marking the start of summer. When you are talking about these numbers of tickets sold, the increase can account for $5 million to $7 million in additional gross on opening weekend and as much as $50 million in total gross numbers.

Oh yeah… Spider-Man. Look for a final number between $650 and $750 million worldwide. And there is nothing wrong with that. Anyone who writes about next weekend being a disappointment when Spider-Man slides to $52 million is an idiot. And when Attack of the Clones opens to $78 million - $97 million with Thursday included – anyone who writes about Star Wars being in trouble is also an idiot. I anticipate that Lucas and Fox will plan a huge, but not record-chasing opening and plan on being the leggiest film of the summer, outgrossing Spider-Man by $100 million or more domestically and by $200 million or more in foreign territories. That’s the plan I anticipate. The reality? Who knows?

[ReaperFett]

Spiderman is the fastest ever. It will beat EP2. There's nothing "stupid". It is popular comic book film that has been anticipated for years, against a sequel, which generally means less takings than the first.







EP2 COULD beat Spiderman, there's no denying it. But don't expect it

[Jedi Master Carr]

Still AOTC will win the summer overall and that is really all that matters.

[CMJ]

Of course it will...but I would be willing to bet(and I don't gamble) that AOTC will NOT beat Spidey's OPENING. That was the question raised.

I have NO doubt AOTC will win the overall number.

[Jedi Master Leia Solo]

Well...being Spiderman is NOT a sequel, it does make sense. And I am NOT saying the movie is stupid. I really want to see it.

I just get tired of SOME critics bashing SW. That's all!:rollin

And I have to agree AOTC in the long run will out due the sales in the ticket department

[Jedieb]

Reaper, AOTC won't beat Spidey's record, but it has little to do with how much more anticipated Spidey is than AOTC. It has EVERYTHING to do with theaters and screen counts. The record is there for the taking if Lucas and Fox want it. Here are the numbers:

Harry Potter
3,672 theaters, 8,100 screens
Spidey
3,615 theaters, 7,500 screens
AOTC
3,300 theaters, 5,000 screens

AOTC wont break the record because people are going to be turned away, not because Spidey is that much more of an anticipated film. In the end, I think we'll see Spidey bring in between $300M-$350M and AOTC $400M-$500M.

[CMJ]

It's not bashing to say AOTC won't beat Spidey's OPENING...if that were the case then I would be bashing it. He's just stating a mathematical probability...that's all.

[ReaperFett]

Leia, people are allowed to not think EP2 will change the shape of the world you know ;)

[Jedi Master Leia Solo]

Umm...actually I didn't quite mean that. Judging from this, he was just stating facts.

But on a DIFFERENT topic..for a moment,

There ARE critics that just have it out for SW and Lucas. If you know what I mean ;)

I hope that clarifies what I meant :) sorry


:lol Are you sure Fett?! Gosh...I really thought it would!!:crack :lol

[CMJ]

Okay Leia...this is what you said though...

"Personally..I think he is another STUPID critic."

From what you said in your original post he made no degrading comments about AOTC other than it most likely would not beat Spidey's opening record. So because of that you labeled him as a "critic"...hell he might just be a Box Office watcher like me and have come to the same conclusion hat I have. AOTC has almost zero chance at the opening record.

[TheHolo.Net]

Originally posted by CMJ
I can almost guarantee you AOTC won't beat the opening of "Spiderman". From the statistics I have seen some of the BO posters provide regarding the number of screens that Spiderman opened on and the number of those AOTC will open on, I am inclined to feel the same as CMJ.

[Jedi Master Leia Solo]

CMJ: I know...Meesa Bad!!! Bad choice of wording at first. :\

But I understand what you are saying and it makes sense to me!:rollin

Sorry I didn't mean to offend anyone. But he was a actual movie critic and I didn't catch his name. Again...a critic just stating an opinon on box office sales that's all.

[Jedieb]

It's all about the numbers. I want to get something straight too, I'm not bashing Spidey's performance in any way. It's having a SPECTACULAR run. It's got HP's number of theaters, but it's doing far better. I really think it will pass both HP and LOTR.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Only domestically though, I don't see it passing either one on the World Wide list, mostly because Spiderman is just not that popular outside the US.

[ReaperFett]

It is popular, cartoons and the like :)

[imported_QuiGonJ]

Spidey is also helped cause more folks go to theaters in the summer season. :)

I'm got tix to see AOTC twice in it's first 12 hours, so I'll doing my bit. It is playing in DLP digital format at the Universal Citywalk theaters as well as the Mann's Chinese.

[Master Yoghurt]

I am allmost 100% certain AOTC will not beat Spiderman's opening. Running at 3,600 theaters, Spiderman had a per theater average of $31,769. Adjusted for ticket price inflation, TPM had $22,985 per theater average in 2,970 theaters. That is a huge difference. You would think with the insane level of anticipation TPM had, the loyal SW fanbase and the lower number of theaters, it would have at least the same, or higher average, but no. So why is that? Well there are plenty of factors into play here, but the most dominant one, was the lower amount of prints.

FOX announced AOTC will run at 3,300 theaters and about 5000 prints. At 7500 prints, Spiderman got a per screen average of $15,200 (!). AOTC would need a per screen average of about 23,000 to beat Spiderman (!!). Sorry, I dont see that happen. That is about the number TPM had per theater.

But lets not stop there.. lets take a look at some more opening weekend numbers (adjusted for inflation):

Spider-Man $114,844,116
Harry Potter $90,294,621
TPM $72,221,789

I think those numbers speak for themselves.

George Lucas put it well when commenting Spiderman's numbers; "I'm not in the horserace business, I'm not in the beauty contest business, I'm in the business of telling stories"

Lucasfilm primary concern is not having the biggest opening or the most amount of prints. It is about releasing it to the screens with the best projection and sound technology. If it means Spiderman will beat the crap out of AOTC the opening weekend, so what? It is the final gross that counts, and I do think it has longer legs than our spider friend. :)

[ReaperFett]

I knew you say that. But I wanted an RPERS view

So you know, saying that will generally NOT make me keep it here. You talk BO in the BO forum.

[TheHolo.Net]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Leia Solo
CMJ: I know...Meesa Bad!!! Bad choice of wording at first. :\

But I understand what you are saying and it makes sense to me!:rollin

Sorry I didn't mean to offend anyone. But he was a actual movie critic and I didn't catch his name. Again...a critic just stating an opinon on box office sales that's all. I don’t think you offended anyone, he was just pointing out his spin on what you said and how it could be interpreted.
Originally posted by ReaperFett

So you know, saying that will generally NOT make me keep it here. You talk BO in the BO forum. Agreed, but what I had done I did before she even made that reply, and well I figured with the way I did it, that both groups of posters could get some input on it and from looking at the topic and its replies, what I did worked. I’m really not a horrible tyrant after all. :p

[Jedi Master Leia Solo]

:mneh FETT!!

Fett :headbash


FEH!! :p

:::Hugs:: Ogies :) Thanks!

[JonathanLB]

"I'm got tix to see AOTC twice in it's first 12 hours, so I'll doing my bit. It is playing in DLP digital format at the Universal Citywalk theaters as well as the Mann's Chinese."

Very nice... I would even drive to Seattle if I had to just to see AOTC in digital one time, my dad agreed to do that if it played there, but I checked and I think there are no digital theaters in Seattle. The only other chance for me could be Las Vegas in August, but I doubt it. I mean, yes there are two theaters there that have digital technology, but August...? I am not so sure that it will still be playing in mid to late August at those particular theaters... Darn. :( I would go out of my way to get to a theater with digital, but I cannot realistically afford to buy a plane ticket and fly to another state just to see a movie I've already seen (by this time) in digital. I did see the quality of digital at the Celebration and I am blown away. I've never seen anything that crisp. How could anyone be so stupid as to say that it doesn't look as good as film?! Yeah, right, it looks perfect! I think these are just total purists and tradionalists who don't want to admit that newer is in this case much better. Digital just rocks. I cannot wait until it becomes more commonplace. I'd drive longer distances just to go to a nice, digital theater.

As for the comments here, mathematically I think CMJ and the others are entirely right. It may not even be PHYSICALLY possible for AOTC to make $114.9 million (and beat Spidey) from the prints it has. It is a distinct possibility that even if every theater sold out every showing for every day, the numbers would still not add up to $115 million...

Rest assured, though, it will do very well for the number of prints it has and people will continue to fill theaters many weeks later, and even months later. It seems to have a chance at holding #1 for four weeks to TPM's 3, but it's too hard to tell. I see Minority Report on June 21 being the next really huge film, followed by MIB2, but before that it is a series of significant yet smaller movies, Insomnia, The Bourne Identity (capable of a $25 million opening perhaps), Stallion: Spirit of the Cimmaron, etc.

I think there will be plenty of room for Star Wars as always.

I don't think Master Yoghurt has the right adjusted per theater average, though. I'd have to check, but I remember TPM being at $21,000 per theater opening weekend and inflation has been about 15 to 18% since then (actually we will NOT know exactly until the figures are released in early 2003, but we know at least it is from $5.08 to more than $5.75). That means more like an average of $24,000 or so per theater, adjusted, or slightly more.

I don't think most theaters have more than one print, even in my area! I am a bit shocked and I would think these numbers would change, but I could be wrong. If they don't change, I cannot imagine the staying power this movie will have. Don't look for a 25-35% decline; it'll be like 15% if the theaters keep what they have now. I mean, in my area my local 13 screen multiplex has ONE screen, another 16-screen plex (that I have tickets to for the 10 a.m.) has 1 screen, downtown (only four screens) has one screen playing it, then both the mall theater and the mall theater outside of the mall (I know, confusing, we got two named Lloyd, "Lloyd Mall" and "Lloyd Cinemas") both are significantly large and have only one screen. In fact, I said before that Tigard 11 has 5 screens playing it, well I checked again and now it shows ONE!? It's very odd. So it seems to me like most theaters have just one single screen playing AOTC, which is going to make it insanely hard to get any tickets opening weekend at all. I think opening day tickets will be totally sold out the day before, Friday tickets will be slightly full, but by Friday they will have to turn away at least half of the people who show up, and Saturday will be absolutely insane, like people showing up at 2 p.m. and buying 10:45 p.m. tickets. That happened to me even with the Special Edition of ANH and that "only" opened with $35.9 million.

I think weekend #2 for AOTC is going to be almost just as busy because of this total lack of supply and the die-hard fans will all be back too, so it's not like the fans rush out to theaters to see it and then that's it. No no. Most Star Wars fans would never wait 3 years to see a movie only ONE time and then forget about it.

[Kar'h'tzen Shaed]

I will be seeing AotC just as many times as I can get into the theatre, from Thursday to Saturday. I'll be seeing it at 12 AM on Thursday, too; better known as "Wednesday at midnight".

With the low amount of screens it's being shown on, though, I seriously doubt that it will beat Spider-Man in the short haul.

[Sejah Haversh]

I do not believe that AOTC will beat Spiderman on openign weekend for several reasons, but first being the amount of screens it will be on. Over three thousand less.

But also, remember that people need money to go see a movie. spiderman was released at a perfect time for it to make money. Tax returns are back, and it's a good family-friendly action comic movie that happens to come out two weeks before AOTC. People have spent money to go to Spiderman, and might not have as much two weeks later to go see another. Also, keep in mind that many people's bills are due in the middle of the month, as well.

And the opening date, too. Spiderman opened on a Friday, I think SW is slated for a thursday, if I'm counting right. More people can stay out late on a Friday since they probably don't have work or school the next day, so they go see it on a Friday.

I'm not saying that a lot of people won't be going because of those reasons, but I'm sayign that many people will wait because of those reasons.

And Spiderman has an added edge. IT was done true to what the comic was supposed to be. Or so I hear. Us comic book readers often hate comic movies because they destroy the premise or story of the comic to make it more acceptable to audiences. Spiderman was kept intact, which scored rave reviews form fans, making the grassroots advertising very solid.

So, though SW will probably make more money overall, Spiderman has too much going for it to be beaten at the box office on opening weekend by SW.

[Seerrasseei Tsseerra]

personally I didn't like Spiderman too much, it was all right but I wouldn't see it again which I think may help AOTC since most ppl won't be seeing Spidey several times unlike the average SW fan....at any rate, I'll probably go many, many times to see AOTC.....

[ReaperFett]

I wouldn't see it again which I think may help AOTC since most ppl won't be seeing Spidey several times unlike the average SW fan
IMO, the average SW fan would see it once

[Drin Kizael]

Let me put it this way... Opening weekend of AOTC, I'm going to go see Spider-Man. Again.

[CMJ]

AOTC had a huge opening...but much like was predicted...not record breaking. The websliger still owns the opening weekend record.

[CMJ]

And unfortunately it's all but certain that "Spider-Man" will outgross AOTC domestically.

I am still kinda shocked by this(even if we realized it about 2 weeks ago in the BO forum). It's a bitter pill to swallow.

[ReaperFett]

I really dont care. I enjoyed the film, and thats what matters. I pity those who didnt go early and couldnt avoid spoilers and the like

[Jedi Master Leia Solo]

Have to admit I really enjoyed AOTC!!! So..like Fett said that's all that matters than the numbers! :D