Where have all the lines gone?

[Jedieb]

I expected smaller and fewer lines for midnight merchandise madness back on the 23rd, but I really didn't expect the advance sale of tickets to come and go so quietly. I know that some places have had lines, but there haven't been ANY here where I live. Last time there was a line with hundreds of people, news vans, etc. But this time not only was I able to get a ticket, but it seemed I had time to spare. The tickets went on sale at around 10AM and I was still able to get one at 4PM. Now, I'm sure the midnight showing will sell out eventually, it's just that I miss the excitement from EP1. Spidey's breaking records left and right. Are we really going to get outdone by Spiderman? I really don't have anything against Spidey, I thought it would open strong and I always thought it had the potential to outdo recent comic book movies like Blade, X-Men, and Batman. I'm going to be taking my son to see it this Saturday. I just never expected Spidey to be the movie to set these records this summer season.

[CMJ]

I don't expect AOTC to beat the opening of "Spiderman". That number was just SOOOO massive. I still can't comprehend it honestly.

Overall though...AOTC will win the summer....I have no doubt of that.

[Beldarine]

To be totally honest with you.. theaters where I live aren't even SHOWING AOTC at midnight. I guess it's just not a big deal.. So I drive to Orlando to find tickets.. today mind you, and I manage to finally locate a movie theater that is actually participating in the midnight showing.

I don't know if it's just not big around here or what... But man, I haven't heard of ANY places even close to selling out for EP. II...

[CMJ]

It's still early...I mean heck AOTC doesn't open for another week. We're in the middle of Spidey mania too. :) Don't worry...theatres will be packed.

[Figrin D'an]

I think a big reason why the midnight and opening-day shows haven't sold out yet is the somewhat covert ticket policy being employed by a lot of theaters. So many theater chains didn't say anything about advance ticket sales until last Thursday afternoon, and started selling Friday morning, with out much major advertising. There are some chains that have not even begun to sell tickets yet, and others that are still in negotiation for midnight shows.

Granted, less hype does have an effect, but the ticket situation was really messed up this time.


Although, the hype may be different in different areas of the country. Around my area (Milwaukee/Chicago), most every midnight show is sold out, or close to being sold out. At the most popular theaters, tickets were gone in a matter of a few hours.

[CMJ]

In my little section of Los Angeles no theatre has even announced early ticket sales(at least none that I've seen). The whole thing does seem to be pretty stealthy. ;)

[JMK]

There hasn't been much noise going on here either as far as tickets go. I attribute some of that to Spider Man's overwhelming performance this weekend, and yes, I'm going to say it, TPM backlash. I think that the relative excess of midnight tickets is somewhat proof that the general public (not us die hard SW fans) were infact a little let down with TPM and are in no rush to get out and get AotC tickets. Yes, they will eventually sell out and AotC will absolutely win the summer without question, but I think there's ample reason to explain all the lack of lines for midnight madness and excess of tickets. I know someone will refute that, but what other reason can there be all these tickets not selling out in the blink of an eye, and everything less out of control this time? Lack of hype from Lucasfilm? Nope, SW is the only movie that needs no advertising.

[Jedieb]

I did pick up on the occasional bit of TPM backlash. For example, at the end of the TPM screening Friday night someone yelled out, "Allright, time for a REAL SW movie! Not a cartoon!" I'd hear the occasional Jar Jar comment as well. But you know, the OT isn't bullet proof. Someone said something about 3-PO being annoying. I was thinking; "What the HELL are you talking about?!" I really don't know what effect any TPM backlash might have. What I saw at that McCallum presentation has me sooooo excited that any problems I had with TPM are irrelevant.

[JMK]

He's always been a good talker that McCallum. :)
This time 3 years ago, ALL of my friends were brimming with excitement, salivating over this new Star Wars movie that was about to come out. Fast forward to 3 years later, and while they're anxious, I wouldn't say they're hyped. They were all a little bummed after TPM, and I think their lack of interest now is a direct result of that. Of course they will see it, and hopefully they'll go in with a clean slate and they'll be thrilled with how good AotC is. I think while this couldcould lead to a lower opening for AotC, it should help it have a longer, more succesful run at the box office.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I attribute to the lack of advertisment too, partly but also realize most people don't buy advance tickets, when I got mine for LOTR there was no line or anything, and in no danger of selling out (I think most people bought it that day) even with TPM I didn't stand in a long line just a few people ahead of me, though I am sure the midnight showing was sold up before that Tuesday. I think the hype will begin this week really, you have Star Wars on Tv Guide, Premier Magazine and probably EW and Rolling Stones at the end of the week and the reviews have all been great, I expect most of the shows to be sold out in its first day.

[CMJ]

Here...this is a great article by David Poland(one of the BEST entertainment journalists there is).

*****************
What does the estimated $114 million start for Spider-Man mean?

Why beat around the bush by writing about anything else first, even if Mike Ovitz’ exit from AMG is a bigger story in the overall framework of the industry? Of course, your never-modest correspondent might point out that the Spider-Man story is really just an extension of the ongoing insanity in this industry as covered in this column for the last couple of years in particular.

The story of this weekend is not likely to be one that lasts very long. It’s not so much a matter of Star Wars: Episode Two beating the Spider-number in two weeks. The truth is, it is really up to George Lucas and Fox to decide whether the record falls. Yes, I am saying that George Lucas can decide for himself whether he wants to have the next record-breaking opening. All he and Fox has to do is to allow enough theaters enough flexibility to show Attack of the Clones on more than 6000 actual screens, just as Sony did on this opening weekend. (The screen count/per-screen statistic is now the most abused number in box office analysis.)

Everything else that LucasFilm and Fox have done in preparation for Clones is right on target. Besides masterminding the buzz on the supposedly independent internet and newsmagazines, they have now taken the amazing step of opening the media floodgates by screening the film for the press this Tuesday, more than a week before opening night and close enough to the Spidey opening to shift the buzz a full week ahead of schedule. There have even been reports that Fox has released the embargo rules – something they have since denied. However, the fact that the alleged memo freed the press to review as of this Wednesday – the day after the press screenings – suggest that it was real… and that Fox is expecting the door to open regardless of what the rules are. After all, what else can be expected after last week’s Time Magazine review by Jess Cagle, which misleadingly suggested that Time’s film critic, Richard Schickel, had seen and approved the picture, and the parade of internet reviews that has started appearing, as per LucasFilm’s plan (they all saw the film weeks ago). Don’t even get me started on the most clever (ab)use of Ain’t It Cool since DreamWorks used the site to beat the Gladiator drum early.

But what about Spider-Man? Oops… I already forgot about the record-shattering weekend. Spider-Man is a good movie. The most amazing part of this weekend’s record-breaker – and I know some of you will get a quizzical look on your face when you read this – is how quiet it was. Yes, there was a whole lot of cross promotion and hype. But it was nothing in comparison to the Harry Potter hype… not even close. More pointedly, I was floored by how easy it was to get into the movie this weekend. My nephew, who went to see Spidey as part of a birthday party on Sunday, was amazed by the line that snaked down the street. But it was a third the size of the lines for Episode One and a quarter the size of weekend lines for Batman. And seats were available for a 4:15 show. You’ll notice that most of the “look at these sell-out” stories are about Saturday.

Sorry, Spider-Man just isn’t one of those industry-changing franchises. Of course, it’s not X-Men either… solid but not stunning. It’s a terrific franchise. To my mind’s eye, it’s a better franchise than the Harry Potter franchise (fewer percentage players with smaller percentages for the those who exist). In some ways, it is better than the Lord of The Rings franchise (it’s not limited to three films and the sequels don’t inherently have to feel like continuations). But it’s just not Star Wars or Indiana Jones or even a Batman. It just isn’t. The $411 million worldwide scored by Batman thirteen years ago would likely be over a billion these days. Of course, the production and P&A costs would be treble as well.

Remember, the film whose record Spider-Man just broke, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, had a hard time passing the $300 million mark domestically after a $90 million opening weekend and no major franchise opposition (Lord of the Rings) for over a month. And while Lord of the Rings opened with a little better than half the number that Potter did, their final domestic tally will be separated by less than $10 million total.

Titanic, the highest domestic and worldwide grosser of all time, opened to under $29 million. And Star Wars: Episode One, which opened to less than $65 million, a number that lingers in the record books behind four separate openings from last summer (Pearl Harbor, Planet of the Apes, The Mummy Returns and Rush Hour 2), but still became the fourth highest grossing film domestically, the second highest domestic grosser ever if you don’t count re-releases and the third highest grossing film of all time worldwide. We can all whine and bitch about Jar Jar Binks, but understand something… audiences did not turn their backs on The Phantom Menace and its box office was not a phenomena of a massive opening weekend. Episode One was the leggiest franchise movie since Jurassic Park hit in 1993… back when second-run houses actually made money and a film could run for over a year in first and second run.

Of course, I feel a little silly dissing Spidey just as it becomes the first film with a $100 million weekend. But it’s about perspective. Sony execs are quite smart not to start guessing, as Warner Bros. execs did, that Spider-Man could end up doing Titanic numbers. They know that a domestic haul of $350 million is more likely and that $400 million would be a stunning triumph in today’s (or any day’s) marketplace. Chasing Titanic’s $1.8 billion theatrical haul will require a true freak of movie nature. Harry Potter is now #2 all-time, coming just short of the billion-dollar mark. Think about that. The number two film of all time is more than 44 percent behind number one.

So, does Spider-Man have a legitimate shot at $1 billion worldwide? Not really.. Attack of the Clones is the only film with a legitimate shot at the billion mark this year. My bet is that the next Harry Potter movie will drop slightly and the next Lord of the Rings movie will rise slightly. If there really was a disappointment factor on The Phantom Menace and if Attack of the Clones is really that much better, making up the $78 million that TPM was short of a billion shouldn’t be that difficult. Additionally, Clones has the advantage, as did Spidey, of a 50 cent ticket increase across much of the nation marking the start of summer. When you are talking about these numbers of tickets sold, the increase can account for $5 million to $7 million in additional gross on opening weekend and as much as $50 million in total gross numbers.

Oh yeah… Spider-Man. Look for a final number between $650 and $750 million worldwide. And there is nothing wrong with that. Anyone who writes about next weekend being a disappointment when Spider-Man slides to $52 million is an idiot. And when Attack of the Clones opens to $78 million - $97 million with Thursday included – anyone who writes about Star Wars being in trouble is also an idiot. I anticipate that Lucas and Fox will plan a huge, but not record-chasing opening and plan on being the leggiest film of the summer, outgrossing Spider-Man by $100 million or more domestically and by $200 million or more in foreign territories. That’s the plan I anticipate. The reality? Who knows?

[Jedieb]

That's a very good article. I would still like to see a comparison chart with the opening number of theaters and screens between Spidey and AOTC. I don't expect AOTC to top Spidey unless the screens get cranked up, something that I don't expect will happen.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Great Article CMJ, I agree a lot with the author.

[CMJ]

Yeah David's great...I've read him since '97. Even when I disagree with him about stuff(which is a fair percentage of the time)...he makes really intelligent comments. He is super knowledgeable about the industry...that's for certain.

[JMK]

Certainly well thought out and planned. A little long and hard on the eyes for my liking, but a good read nonetheless!

[Admiral Lebron]

This time around, with a lot of online ticket purchasing its been quieter, but I know a couple dozen folk missing school to go see it. I'd miss school but I have an AP exam that day which sucks, since it should be this week.

[Lady Vader]

I just checked my theater down near me, and it's a pretty darn big theater serving the hill up here, and it still has tickets for the midnight show. But I think it's already into the second theater. First theater is sold out.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Excellent article and the writer really puts his reasonings well.

[JonathanLB]

That is one of the best articles I have ever read. I mean the guy has obviously done his homework, he absolutely knows the facts and what he is talking about, and his writing mechanics seem excellent too. What a superb piece! I'm impressed, how refreshing! I see very few intelligent articles by entertainment analysts.

Well he is definitely right, I would say that an opening of about $70 million even for AOTC would be quite awesome, even if other people want to gripe and say that's bad. Although, I would say it'll do better than that for A LOT of reasons. Let me outline a few...

1) $64.8 million was when ticket prices were 15 to 18% lower.

2) $64.8 million was from 2,970 theaters, AOTC has 3,300.

3) $64.8 million came after TWO days the film had already played, therefore was diluted more so than AOTC will be with just ONE day before the weekend.

For those reasons, I think AOTC could hit anywhere between $75 million and $95 million, but beating Spider-Man. It will NOT happen. No matter how big of a fan I am of Star Wars and how much I want the new film to smash everything in its path, it is just not going to happen. As this guy points out, it's up to Lucas and Lucas has chosen a smaller release, which is much better. Phew. Do we really want to see a Star Wars film fall 50% each weekend? Ouch.. no thanks!

CNN had a poll saying 70% of people voting want to see AOTC, at least at some point, 25% on opening weekend. If that were true, there would be an incredible final tally for this film just as with TPM. You know, TPM also had about 70% saying they wanted to see it, so I don't think much has changed...

Ok back to the issue HERE, started in this thread, by our venerable friend EB :)

Well EB, you are right in that there were no major lines, but DUDE, what the hell?! I went to Fandango.com, didn't see anything about midnight showings, my friend went to theaters THE DAY BEFORE they sold tickets, they said it would be "about a week" before they knew. So nobody was helpful at all, nobody knew what they were talking about, there was NO standard time tickets went on sale, no organization at all. Many people do not even know tickets are for sale right now. Heck I am a die-hard and I had no idea tickets went on sale while I was in Indy at first, but then I did check Fandango (woke up in the middle of the night, believe it or not, with a nightmare I wouldn't get my tickets, lol) and I bought some tickets...

The showings are selling fast at my local theater from what I hear. I also had a few fans two people in front of me when I went to see Deuces Wild yesterday and they were asking for Episode II tickets (btw, Wild SUCKS).

[Jedieb]

Many people do not even know tickets are for sale right now.
That's my whole point. This has been a very different experience than EP1. The tickets sales for this midnight showing have come and gone rather quietly. Many, if not most of us, made calls and were surprised to hear that tickets were on sale. It's a blessing in the sense that it's made it easier to get tickets. I had someone get my ticket for me last time, there's was no way I could miss work and camp out. I think that by early next week it'll be near impossible to get a ticket for any midnight showing.

AND STOP CALLING ME VENERABLE! Unless you're paying respect for my vaunted position or impeachable character. :rolleyes

[JonathanLB]

:)

Yeah, well I had to go to the theater and ask about the midnight showing specifically. The funniest part... Ok, first Fandango does not even have it listed for the theater. Second, the sign on the window at Evergreen says: "10:00 a.m., 1-something, 4:20 p.m. (hehe), 7-something, and 10:45." It says NOTHING about a midnight showing. You have to ask them specifically about it and they will sell you the tickets, but otherwise you would never know.

It was not very well coordinated this time, but do you suppose this could be on purpose?

Hear me out here...

I was thinking that last time the whole hype of having thousands of lines around the country waiting for tickets kind of made people think, "Yikes! We'll just wait a week, no reason to see this movie opening weekend." This time, you don't have that type of hype or lineups at all, except the few really significant lines like in LA and Seattle. So perhaps this time Fox and LFL just wanted to let theaters do what they will and not make such a huge deal of it, which is kind of appropriate with the rest of their marketing strategies. This time, the hype has been totally under control and hasn't really exploded until recently, when of course the movie is coming to theaters very soon. That's just a theory, though, maybe the poor planning was just that. Poor. lol.

[Jedieb]

Yes, I think it's more of a business as usual attitude. What I expect to see at my local theater this weekend is what I saw for Spiderman. A big board with cards posting which showings of AOTC are still open.

[JonathanLB]

...and what I expect to see the weekend after that is massive lines and sold out showings, plus a new entirely awesome Star Wars movie. :)

[Doc Milo]

When I went to the theater to pick up my tickets, they had a photocopy of a printout that merely had a picture from AotC (the Natalie Portman pic from the Official site) and big block letters (on 8 1/2 by 11 paper) that said, "Attack of the Clones Tickets now on sale" Then the dates: May 15th 12:01 AM, May 16th 10:00 AM etc....

Funny thing, the theaters having May 15th as the date is still confusing people on this other board I visit! They have no concept that the only reason it says May 15th is because the theaters won't have closed for business on the 15th yet. They still think that they are seeing it 24 hours before anyone else! Imagine their surprise when they show up at midnight on the 15th (meaning the business day of the 14th) and find the theater closed!

Ya gotta love those AOLer's heh, Jon! :)

[JonathanLB]

Oh boy, do not even get me started on AOLers. They are so lame for the most part. I mean when I first became a Webmaster I was very reluctant to single out a whole group of millions of people and say, "These guys just don't have any clue," but after running five sites for many months now, more than a half year (and online for at least one site for 1.5 years), I've really pretty much concluded that the SMART AOLers are the exception that proves the rule.

All of the dumbest e-mails I get are from AOL users pretty much, or a solid 85%. The rest are sometimes Yahoo or Hotmail free accounts, but there are tens of millions of those e-mail addresses and they are just a few exceptions, hehe.

My tickets also say the 15th at 12:01 a.m. The theater really should have gotten them right because it COULD be confusing to people who don't know better. I mean, it is NOT the 15th, it is the 16th clearly. I hate it when people say, "Well technically it's the night of the 15th." No, it isn't, it's the morning of the 16th. The first minute. Now I would agree that to most people midnight is still the night, and not actually the next day, but technically speaking 12:01 a.m. is the first minute of the day...

I am really going to be tired for a few days there. Seeing 4 showings on the 16th is going to be draining while exciting at the same time. I mean, clearly I cannot wait, but the 10 a.m. showing will be really rough. I'll get back from the midnight showing at perhaps 3 and not go to sleep until 4 or so because a few friends are coming back. Then I will get in line for my 10 a.m. showing at probably 8 or 9, so that leaves a few hours for sleep and that's it...

[Doc Milo]

I think the only reason they say the 15th is for book-keeping purposes. Where I work -- I manage an OTB that's located inside a bar -- we open on Thurs, Fri, and Sat until 3:30AM. They don't change the dates on the tickets sold, even on those sold after midnight, merely for book-keeping purposes. There is a single shift that spans from 6:30PM to 3:30AM -- so the official date on everything sold is the date when the shift started. The official date does not change until the close of business.

So, the theaters probably are doing the same thing -- to keep the books for the shifts (not the official box-office numbers, but the sales totals for any single shift) in order, pretty much just a method of keeping track of things so everyone from cashiers to managers can prove out at the end of the night. (At least, that's what I'm assuming...) (With advance sales having that date on it, it probably also has something to do with inventory control or something or other...)

[JonathanLB]

Yes, I suppose, although for TPM my ticket says 5/19/99 12:01 a.m. "STAR WARS A" (I think, hehe, they had A and B auditoriums).

[Doc Milo]

Yeah, as I was writing it I started wondering why that date would matter -- in advance sales, for business purposes on a daily basis, inventory and sales totals for that current day, the only date that would matter is the date sold, not the show date.

I really don't know why they would see the need to have the date of the business day for that, now . . . the more I think about it, the more it's starting to make little sense. I mean, I know that they are putting the 15th because technically, it's the business day of the 15th (the theater didn't close for business on the 15th) but the as to the why they need to put that on there, I don't know -- my guesses only make sense in the framework of figuring out the sales totals for the business day, and for proving out for that business day -- but that doesn't hold with advanced ticket sales. So, I'm at a loss to explain why they see the need to put May 15th rather than May 16th...

Unless they're figuring that most people won't understand that May 16th 12:01 means when Wednesday turns into Thursday?