Weekend Estimates....

[CMJ]

1. Spiderman - 114.0M
2. The Scorpion King - 9.6M
3. Changing Lanes - 5.6M
4. Murder By Numbers - 3.78M
5. The Rookie 3.3M


The Saturday figures I saw were 43.7M(accoding to Variety). Once agan...this film is blowing my mind with it's performance.

[foxdvd]

No matter what happens with AOTC’s opening numbers, it can’t win. If it does open up with more then 114 million, the press will not give it total respect, and chalk it up to being another Star Wars movie. If it does not open up with that much (which is more likely considering the lower theater count it will have) it is going to be blasted by the media as somewhat a disappointment to theater owners, and others. Then when Star Wars continues to make money, holds up better then Spiderman, and eventually passes its box office take, you will not see a bunch or articles taking back what they said about the failure of Star Wars to do as well as Spiderman. In fact, many will go on thinking that Spiderman was a bigger hit then Star Wars, based off those early reports.

It is cool though how well Spiderman did. It was a good movie, with many excellent parts, and only a few bad ones. I would give it an A- ......

[CMJ]

I very much agree...I really doubt AOTC can open THIS big. Of course it will no doubt make much more money over the course of it's run...but the press won't see that...well not at first anyways. Variety of course will report it, because they're a trade magazine...so the conventional press will probably run a small story about it at the end of the summer film season.

[Super Wookiee]

114.0M damn this is sick. A movie cutting two days off the record to 100 million the quickest.

[Helenias Evenstar]

That is just so wrong any movie can make that much movie that fast.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know its weird so how long will be before a movie make 150 million in a weekend dare I say 200 if ticket prices keep going up it could happen. As far as AOTC clones go I think it might make more in the 4 day period (maybe 120 that is what I am thinking right now) than Spiderman did in 3 days how will it reported I could care less really because Spiderman will probably make 50 million droping 50%+ and AOTC will make around 70 something droping only around 35% that will show the power of SW IMO I see AOTC beating Spiderman by at least 100 million when the numbers are all finished.

[sirdizzy]

i don't know if aotc can do the 114 it will probably be in 200-300 less screenings and it opens on thrusday it will be interesting to see

[flagg]

I agree about the possibility of the media putting down AOTC if it doesn't beat Spidey's opening. I remember reading an article when TPM came out saying that the fact it didn't beat Lost World's opening weekend meant the audience knew it sucked and it wouldn't have legs.
I don't remember them retracting their statement when TPM defeated all competition for the summer. :mad

[Super Wookiee]

Well Final gross is the most important thing anyway. Look at that hunk of Junk Titanic......

[JonathanLB]

I do not trust the media, don't get me wrong, but if AOTC gets 75% or more positive reviews, including Richard Corliss' in Time Magazine, I believe the media is not going to make that big of a deal out of it. But with TPM, you had a movie that got very mixed critical reviews yet it was hailed as the second coming. Now you have a movie that is NOT at all receiving even 25% as much hype and it's also going to, most likely, receive good to excellent critical reviews from what I hear so far, all of which means the TPM type of backlash is not as likely at all.

I see AOTC making significantly less than Spider-Man in three days, but over four days it will make more for sure. It could be pretty close, but it will almost certainly make more, 4 vs. 3 days...

Also, if people absolutely love AOTC (and they actually do love Spidey too), you can bet that the next weekend and the weekend after that are going to be pretty dang massive.

It's all decided practically on the second weekend.

What if you had AOTC open with $95 million in 3 days and it fell only 30% next weekend? It would almost surely come within $50 to $100 million VERY max of beating Titanic. It would have an honest to God chance at that. But if it makes $80 million and falls 35% the second weekend, well duh it has no chance.

But you take an opening of slightly less than Spider-Man proportions and add TPM staying power to it, which you have to think is possible at the least, then do the math. You get $600+ million. It's not totally out of reach because it happened 5 years ago and tickets are way more expensive and Star Wars is way more popular than Titanic ever was or will be. If people believed Star Wars had a chance to beat Titanic before, it DOES have a chance still. However remote, if you take a movie that the die-hard fans absolutely love and you add the young fans we gained from TPM PLUS the other kids who were too young for TPM (3 or 4 at the time) and now ARE old enough to see AOTC, you have enough extra viewers to make a pretty dang significant difference. Take this lady I talked to today while walking back from the Celebration. We went into a Krispy Kreme for a second actually. She didn't attend the Celebration of course, she was just there, and she said she never did see TPM, not even on DVD, but she really wants to see AOTC. So she was saying how she has to go rent TPM and she hears AOTC is going to be great. Now there are, amazingly, a lot of people who avoided the hype with TPM but for AOTC are going to come out and actually see the second film.

The love story aspect combined with another pretty face like Hayden makes you think at least our chances with teen girls is BETTER, if not good, it's better than it was before. With Jar Jar almost a non-factor, college kids are breathing a sigh of relief because you know they didn't care for him at all. I'm the big exception, haha, I don't mind him. I'm not a fan really, but whatever, I thought he was fine. Did not detract whatsoever from my experience and he made me laugh a few times originally. Point is, though, you have a lot that has been refined from TPM that the die-hards are going to like more and from those die-hards branches all of the grass-roots marketing basically, so I see that as pretty important. People definitely loved TPM, but it would be possible for many more people to become interested in AOTC for the obvious fact that now we are seeing Anakin turning...

I just have a good feeling about AOTC. No offense intended and none of us know for sure, but I feel that Dutchy's $350 million predition for AOTC is simply way too low. Look at how much LOTR and HP both made. Nearly $350 million each. Much less than $50 million away! Star Wars is definitely a bigger deal than those franchises as I thought TPM already clearly proved, so I see Episode II opening huge and finding a final gross between $475 million and $525 million. It will not beat Spider-Man's opening, IMO, there is no way... I bow to the impressiveness of the Mighty Webslinger's opening three days ;)

However, Star Wars is still a billion times better. If you saw Yoda kicking some major butt in Episode II like I did today, well, come on, there is Star Wars, then there is everything else. 'Nuff said.

[Jedi Master Carr]

According to Lee Friday's numbers were about 2 million off (it made 39.3) so I bet the Saturday's numbers will be off by 2 and the estimate could be anywhere from 2-4 million off which really wouldn't surprise me. Still even if it maks 110 million that is pretty amazing.