Final Oscar Picks

[Marcus Telcontar]

Best Movie

With Memento not in this list, I have to say at least one is totally undeserving. Moulin Rogue definantly is not.

Who will win : A Beautiful Mind (Safe Oscar fare. Lets face it, it is)

Who Should : Lord of the Rings (It wont. It's the wrong genre and the fact it is only 1/3rd of the moive goes against it. It is an incredible achievementto bring the books to life as they have. And as a sum of it's whole parts, it is a mile above everything else - just as Titanic was, I hate to say)



Best Director.

Who will win : Ron Howard

Who should : Peter Jackson (Look at what he has done as a sum of the whole. But he wont, not this time, despite the fact LOTR was an incredible technical challenge, far beyond other movies this year)



Best Actor


Who win win : Denzel Washington


Who should : Denzel Washington. For gods sake, someone take Crowe's ego down a peg or two. Okay, he was excellent in ABM, no denying. But from what I hear, Dezel was equally good and deserves this



Best Actress


No real comment.


Who will win : Halle Berry




Best Supporting Actor



Who will win : Ian McKelland


Who Should : Ian McKelland (Get past the fantasy angle of FOTR and you will see hhe was brilliant



BEst Supporting Actress


No idea




Best Animated film


Shrek. Hand it over now.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Best Picture I am going to do it a little different
Who I hope will win: LOTR
Who I think will win ABM
I am hopeful LOTR win's but there are things against it like you said Marcus
Best Director Who I hope will win: Peter Jackson
who I think will win Altman, I think they will give it to him as an honory thing

Best actor here it is both Denzel like you said, I just think he deseves it

Best Actress: Sissy Spacek

Best Supporting Actor Ian Mckelllan

Best Supporting Actress Jennifer Connely

Best Animated Movie Shrek

[darth_mcbain]

I haven't seen all of the movies in question here, but from what I've seen my picks would be:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Mind. Like most of you, I hope that LOTR wins, but I just don't think it is in the cards. I actually did like Moulin Rouge quite a bit, but I don't think that it has what it takes to win.

Best Director
I think this will be a close one between Peter Jackson and Ron Howard. I'm pulling for Jackson.

Best Actor
Much as I'd not like to see him win, I have to say that Russell Crowe was pretty amazing in ABM. But I haven't seen any of the other movies with the other candidates, so I'm shooting in the dark there.

Best Actress
I'm gonna go for Nicole Kidman in Moulin Rouge.

Best Supporting Actor
Gotta go with Ian Mckelllan - he was just outstanding as Gandalf (although again I haven't seen the others)

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Connelly

Best Animated Movie
Shrek will win it hands down

[Champion of the Force]

Here's who I think will win:

Best Picture: A Beautiful Mind
Despite some of the recent controversy surrounding what was portrayed I still think it'll get the nod, especially considering some of the media reporrts have now been shown to be either false or seriously distorted. And I don't think Crowe's recent behaviour will affect it's chances for this one - the Academy can give Crowe the thumbs down in the actor nod.

Best Director: Ron Howard
Pretty much a given I think.

Best Actor: Denzel Washington
Crowe's recent outburst, the recent reports of how black American's rarely win as well as the backing of several high-profile celebrities for Washington give me the feeling that Washington will walk away with this one. Besides Crowe won last year. Will Smith is unlikely since Ali wasn't a very big hit at all for all it's promotion and fanfare.

Best Actress: Halle Berry or Sissy Spacek
Sissy Spacek was the hot favourite but Berry's recent win gives her a good push. I can't see Nicole Kidman winning it though despite all the recent fare over Moulin Rouge's chances.

Best Supporting Actor: Ian McKellan
Again I think this is a given. Barely anything has been heard about this one except for McKellan.

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connelly
Again a given.

Best Animated Movie: Shrek
Without a doubt - Shrek was the surprise hit of last year and was wonderful.

EDIT: After seeing CMJ's post I remembered Connelly from A Beautiful Mind for Best Supporting Actress.

[CMJ]

I posted this already in another thread..but here goes.

Last year I did very well. I got like 15 of 19 correct or something like that. Anyways..here are my predictions with analysis.

BEST PICTURE
*A BEAUTIFUL MIND
GOSFORD PARK
IN THE BEDROOM
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE

This is a strong 3 way race. I can see MR of FOTR winning as well. MR has passionate support..but people who don't like it REALLY don't like it. FOTR is big and epic, but I'm not sure the Academy will honor a fantasy film. ABM is the "safe" choice. Most people seem to enjoy it(it doesn't skew towards youth or older or male or female)..and it's DGA win was huge.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
JIMMY NEUTRON: BOY GENIUS
MONSTERS, INC.
*SHREK

The smart money is on "Shrek", it was highly regaurded by just about everyone AND it was a BO smash hit. But "Monster's" has 4 total nominatons so I could see it pulling off a surprise.

Best Director
*Ron Howard A BEAUTIFUL MIND
Ridley Scott BLACK HAWK DOWN
Robert Altman GOSFORD PARK
Peter Jackson THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING MULHOLLAND DRIVE
David Lynch MULHOLLAND DRIVE

This is a toughie. I think Altman will really give Howard a run for his money, because the Academy feels huilty because the man has never won an Award, though he's considered one of the greatest filmmakers of the last 30 or so years. Nonethless I believe Howard's DGA win will spur him to victory.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Russell Crowe
Sean Penn
Will Smith
*Denzel Washington
Tom Wilkinson

Denzel has lost just about every major precursor to Crowe..yet I feel a late surge in favor of Washington. I think this might be one of the closest votes of the evening...but I think Denzzel will come out on top. Wilkinson COULD benefit from a split vote..but not likely.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
*Halle Berry
Judi Dench
Nicole Kidman
Sissy Spacek
Renée Zellweger

Here I am picking another upset. Spacek was considered the frontrunner till the SAG's, but now I expect either Kidman or Berry to edge her out. I figure either Washington or Berry will win(because of the recent hubub over black winners..or the lack there of) so I'm gonna pick BOTH of them so I get one right.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jim Broadbent
Ethan Hawke
Ben Kingsley
*Ian McKellen
Jon Voight

FOTR will get it's 1 major award in this category. McKellan is due, plus they will want to give it "something big" and this seems the most logical category. Broadbent and Kingsley lurk just behind and might win.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*Jennifer Connelly
Helen Mirren
Maggie Smith
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet

About as sure a thing as there is. If ABM loses this, that's an early indication it's in trouble for the big categories later on.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
*A BEAUTIFUL MIND
GHOST WORLD
IN THE BEDROOM
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
SHREK

Goldsman has won the Globe, the BAFTA, and th WGA. I'm pretty sure he's gonna win this too.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
AMÉLIE
*GOSFORD PARK
MEMENTO
MONSTER'S BALL
THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS

With all my hear I want "Memento" to win...but GP will net it's 1 award of the evening in this category. God how I hope I'm wrong!

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
*AMÉLIE
ELLING
LAGAAN
NO MAN'S LAND
SON OF THE BRIDE

A no brainer...it has 5 total nominations, it should win this in a walk.

SOUND
AMÉLIE
BLACK HAWK DOWN
*THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE
PEARL HARBOR

FOTR won the sound Guild last week, so I'm gonna take it here. I think "Black Hawk" MIGHT win here though, so it gets some kind of recognition.

SOUND EDITING
MONSTERS, INC.
*PEARL HARBOR

PH was the only film nominated in both sound categories..which means it should win one of them you would think.

VISUAL EFFECTS
A.I. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
*THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
PEARL HARBOR

Not even close..even though I would vote for "A.I."..FOTR has it in the bag.

MAKEUP
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
*THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE

If FOTR loses here it has NO shot at Best Picture.

MUSIC (SCORE)
A.I. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
*A BEAUTIFUL MIND
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MONSTERS, INC.

I think Horner will ride the ABM wave to victory.

MUSIC (SONG)
KATE & LEOPOLD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MONSTERS, INC.
PEARL HARBOR
*VANILLA SKY

Don't you think the Acdemy will wanna give an Oscar to a Beatle? I know I think they do.

FILM EDITING
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
BLACK HAWK DOWN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MEMENTO
*MOULIN ROUGE

MR and BHD won the Editor's Guild. So I'd say it's between those 2 films...on the strength of it's Best Picture nomination MR wins.

ART DIRECTION
AMÉLIE
GOSFORD PARK
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
*MOULIN ROUGE

MR won the guild award, thats what I'm basing this choice on.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
AMÉLIE
BLACK HAWK DOWN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
*THE MAN WHO WASN'T THERE
MOULIN ROUGE

Deakins has won EVERYTHING this year. I can't imagine the Academy will ignore him.

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AFFAIR OF THE NECKLACE
GOSFORD PARK
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
*MOULIN ROUGE

Another MR victory.

Totals
A Beautiful Mind - 5
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - 4
Moulin Rouge - 3
Training Day - 1
Gosford Park - 1
Monster's Ball - 1
The Man Who Wasn't There - 1
Shrek - 1
Amelie - 1
Pearl Harbor - 1
Vanilla Sky - 1

[Figrin D'an]

I haven't commented on any of the Oscar talk up until this point, but I'll take a stab at picking the winners...

BEST PICTURE

My pick: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Winner: Moulin Rouge

It's a three-way race between 'Fellowship', Moulin Rouge and A Beautiful Mind. ABM was good, but not great, IMO. I really liked Moulin Rouge... I found it highly entertaining. 'Fellowship' though, really did a great job of re-creating the mythos that Tolkien injected into his books... a mythos that has become the archetype for so many of the other stories and films that we have come to love. I really think The Fellowship of the Ring deserves the award, but I have a feeling that between the academy's reservations about recognizing a fantasy film, and the recent smear campaign against ABM, that Moulin Rouge will sneak up and win the award... so, I'm agreeing with Roger Ebert's prediction on this one.


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

My pick: Monsters, Inc.

Winner: Shrek

Shrek was a bigger boxoffice success than Monsters, Inc, so it will likely win this award. Personally, I liked Monsters, Inc a bit better, but they are both great animated features. I'd be happy with either one winning.


Best Director

My pick: Peter Jackson

Winner: Ron Howard

Another three way race, between Jackson, Howard and Robert Altman. Altman may steal this one, as a kind of 'lifetime achievement' nod on the part of the Academy, but the Academy also wants to recognize one of it's favorite son's in Howard.


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

My pick: Denzel Washington

Winner: Denzel Washington

I agree with CMJ... I think Denzel has been gaining momentum leading up to the Oscars and will beat out Crowe by a narrow margin. Crowe's 'issues' at the BAFTA awards may partially cause the support to switch to Denzel, but I think it is also because Crowe won last year, and the Academy might be feeling the pressure to give a major award to a black actor. Denzel was really good in Training Day, and I think the Academy will recognize this.


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

My pick: Nicole Kidman

Winner: Halle Berry

It's not really fair for me to pick this one, because I haven't seen Monster's Ball, so I can't judge Berry's performance... of the other nominees, Kidman's performance was my favorite, so I went with her. However, Halle Berry seems to have the recent media hype behind her, so I think she'll walk away with the award.


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

My pick: Sir Ian McKellan

Winner: Sir Ian McKellan

Jim Broadbent has a decent chance at this one, but everyone knows that Sir Ian has everything in his favor for this one... successful film, nominated 13 times, lengthy career, high popularity with his recent roles, a previous nomination that many (including me) felt for which he deserved to win ('Gods and Monsters')... the Academy likes him, the movie-going public likes him, and he deserves the award.


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

My pick: Jennifer Connelly

Winner: Jennifer Connelly

This will be one of the few "blowout" victories of the evening... I honestly can't see this one going any other way.


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

My pick: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Winner: A Beautiful Mind

Like CMJ said, ABM has won everything up to this point... 'Fellowship' has a slim shot at this one, but I don't see it happening.


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

My pick: Memento

Winner: Gosford Park

Memento was such a genius piece of writing that, in a fair and just world, it would run away with this award. But, the world isn't fair and just, and Gosford Park will probably win... ugh.


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

My pick: Amelie

Winner: Amelie

I think it should win, they think it should win... it'll win. 'Nough said.


SOUND

My pick: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

The only other competition in the category is Black Hawk Down and Pearl Harbor. 'Fellowship' should take it though.


SOUND EDITING

My pick: Monster's Inc

Winner: Monster's Inc

I can't stand the thought of that pathetic piece of drivel known as Pearl Harbor winning anything, so I'm going with Monster's Inc.


VISUAL EFFECTS

My pick: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Is there really any need to pick this one? Everyone knows the winner already...


MAKEUP

My pick: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

I think 'Fellowship' will take this one, although I could see Moulin Rouge sneaking up to steal it.


MUSIC (SCORE)

My pick: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Winner: A Beautiful Mind

No comment.


MUSIC (SONG)

My pick: Vanilla Sky

Winner: Kate & Leopold

I'd love to see Paul McCartney win, but since Sting won the Golden Globe, I think he'll take it here too.


FILM EDITING

My pick: Moulin Rouge

Winner: Moulin Rouge

Moulin Rouge deserves it... that's all I'll say.


ART DIRECTION

My pick: Moulin Rouge

Winner: Moulin Rouge

Like CMJ said, it won the Art Directors Guild award, so it'll win here.


CINEMATOGRAPHY

My pick: Moulin Rouge

Winner: The Man Who Wasn't There

I haven't see The Man Who Wasn't There, but it seems to be the big winner in this catagory this season, so it'll probably win the Oscar as well. Among the other nominees, though, I would take Moulin Rouge narrowly over 'Fellowship'.


COSTUME DESIGN

My pick: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Winner: Moulin Rouge

Moulin Rouge pretty much has this one in the bag. I can live with that, though. For me, it's close between it and 'Fellowship', so no big deal.

[Marcus Telcontar]

You know, I dont really have a problem with ABM winning. It is standard Acadamy fare, and was ok apparently. What i AM goign to be violent over is if Moulin Rougue wins. I suspect that there will be rejoicing by a lot of peole of FOTR wins (not likely), a Nod of "Yep, good choice" for ABM, and howls of outrage if MR wins. I dont see Gosford Park and In the Bedroom getting close.

So there you are, expect to see a huge rant if that POS MR wins.

[CMJ]

Early signs for sweeps or lack there of.....

If "Gosford Park" wins Supporting Actress(either Mirren or Smith) AND costume...then I see a potential out of nowhere sweep coming.

If ABM loses Supporting Actress....long night ahead.

If ABM WINS make up...it could go 6 for 8..or maybe win all of it's nominations.

If FOTR loses make-up or Visual Effects...no shot at Best Picture.

IF MR wins it's share in the tech categories(Sound, Art/Set/Costume) AND If Kidman wins Actress... MR takes Picture(especially if Altman takes Director).

If Tomei of "Bedroom" wins Supporting Actress watch out. It could conceivably take all three acting awards...and with that kind of support perhaps Screenplay and Picture as well.

[Jedi Master Carr]

So I am guessing if Mckellan wins best supporting Oscar that doesn't necessarly mean a sweep for FOTR? How about this is FOTR wins Costuming, Art Direction and/ or cinematography then it might sweep.

[Figrin D'an]

If Fellowship wins Costuming, Art Direction and Cinematography (even two of those three), it could go on a run an win the major awards (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, etc). That's the way I see it anyway...

[CMJ]

I actually think McKellan losing would be more beneficial to FOTR's chances. Films that win Best Supporting Actor have a lousy track record for Best Picture.

Furthermore I feel that McKellan will win partly because the Academy wants to give at least 1 major award to FOTR. If it loses...more major awards may follow later.

I think if FOTR wins Costume, Art/Set Design, Cinematography as well as some of the technicals it will most likely win(Visual Effects, Sound) it'll sweep maybe 8 or more categories.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Personally, I think CMJ is right. McKelland wins Best supporting actor, it will not win Best Moive or director

Even if by some cosmic fluke LOTR wins Picture, I just dont see Jackson winning Director.

[ReaperFett]

Okay, my wild guesses. For some, rather then go for favourites, I'm going for the ones with strong support that could make it:

FILM: LOTR

ACTOR: Tom Wilkinson

SUP. ACTOR: Jim Broadbent

ACTRESS: Judi Dench

SUP. ACTRESS: Maggie Smith

DIRECTOR: RIDLEY SCOTT(Come on luck, be his lady tonight:))

ANIMATED: Shreck

ART DIRECTION: LOTR

CINEMATOGRAPHY: BLACK HAWK DOWN

COSTUME DESIGN: LOTR

FILM EDITING: BLACK HAWK DOWN

FOREIGN LANGUAGE: AMIELE

MAKEUP: LOTR

SCORE: LOTR(Still think it wasnt anything special :))

SONG: LOTR(As sung by a Wraith:))

SOUND: BLACK HAWK DOWN

SOUND EDITING: Pearl harbour(What a rubbish category :))

VISUAL EFFECTS: LOTR

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: LOTR

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: MEMENTO

[CMJ]

To be honest...I loved "Black hawk Down". If it could win all those awards, my night would be great(hell even if "Gosford parrk" won Best Picture even). BHD was SOO underrated, and Scott deserves an Academy Award(not to mention those sound guys on that film...amazing!).

[ReaperFett]

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAH BHD! 1 out of 1 so far! :)

[CMJ]

I was 13 for 20 this year.

[JMK]

Is it too late to make predictions? :lol

Seriously though, that was some good calling CMJ, how did you compare to last year's?

[CMJ]

Last year I went 15 for 19. These last years have been really tough though, with so many films splitting up the pizes. It's much easier when one film dominates the categories...though I must admit it's more fun when the wealth is spread out. ;)