Australian Box Office shock

[Marcus Telcontar]

Lord of the Rings has just regained the No .1 position!!!! 8 weeks after release!!!!

It now stands as the all time no 4 movie (after overtaking Harry Potter) and heading for at least 50 million AUD - which will make it No 2 of all time.

Titanic has 57 million and No 1.

[Champion of the Force]

How the heck did that happen?

:: runs off to check Urban Cinefile ::

[Marcus Telcontar]

I honestly dont know, but I was really WTF'ed when I saw it. Especially after 8 weeks of release..

[JMK]

That's really impressive legs in Australia! I guess it won't overtake Titanic though, will it? Do Australian B.O. include receipts from New Zealand?

[Marcus Telcontar]

No, they dont. In New Zealand, FOTR has been No 1 for 9(!!) weeks and I think has beaten Titanic and is No 1 all time. I'll have to double check that

As for beating Titanic - who knows. It's starting to do some funny things Box Office wise - going up a touch and also showing much more resilience AND good attendance

[Darth23]

I'ts funny that we never got an announcement that it LOST the number 1 position. ;)



------------

" Do Australian B.O. include receipts from New Zealand?"

Was that some sort of smart-alec remark?

I think that's like asking if the US results include Canada.

Oh wait, they do. :p


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<a href=http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/australia/>Box Office Mojo</a> has updated info.

Let's see, the new movies in Oz are Domestic Disturbance and Shipping News.

FOTR dropped [edit: 22% not 26%], Oceans 11 dropped 32% and stayed in the number 2 spot. Behind Enemy Lines dropped 36% and went from number 1 to number 3.

Theater Counts & Per Theater Average:

1) FOTR - 321 - $2,202US
2) Oceans 11 - 251 - $2,802US
3) Behind Enemy Lines - 229 - $3,009US
4) Spy Game - 195 - $2,459US
5) Shipping News - 86(!) - $5,294US
6) Domestic Disturbance - 117(!) - $3,450US
11) Harry Potter - 176(!!) - $826


Looks to me like the new movies are getting shafted, eve though they clearly have the averages to be at the top.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Excuse me, we DID get that announcement. International Box Office Thread. I'm surprised you dont remember

Oh yeah, they get shafted - NOT. How about asking if LOTR has the big theatres anymore? No, in the main it doesnt - it's gone into the secodries for it's daily plays and does not play the large theatres except at peaks, like weekends. Plus, also given it's a far longer movie that Oceans or BEL, means it naturally has a lower theatre average, less chance to put bums on seats.

Ever considered that? Clearly, there are reasons the theatre average is smaller.

[Darth23]

Yeah, cause it's an old movie and not as many people are going to see it any more.

What was it's theater average in the first few weeks?

I'd be willing to bet that it's was closer to the averages of Domestic Disturbance or Shipping News.

[Jedieb]

Excuse me, we DID get that announcement. International Box Office Thread. I'm surprised you dont remember
:lol
I think it's a sure bet that FOTR is going to take the top spot in Austrailia. Regaining the top spot after weeks of release is exactly what films like ANH, ET, and Titanic did on their record setting runs. I'm not sure about ESB, but I know that ROTJ did so as well although it failed to catch ET.

[Darth23]

FOTR - North American B. O. results:

weekend 1 - $14,000/theater - 3359 theaters
weekend 2 - $11,529/theater - 3359 theaters (18% drop in gross)
weekend 3 - $ 6,805/theater - 3381 theaters (40% drop in gross) Post holiday weekend
weekend 4 - $ 4,792/theater - 3381 theaters (29% drop in gross)
weekend 5 - $ 3,819/theater - 3266 theaters (23% drop in gross)
weekend 6 - $ 2,887/theater - 2703 theaters (37% drop in gross)
weekend 7 - $ 2,470/theater - 2309 theaters (27% drop in gross)
weekend 8 - $ 2,121/theater - 1706 theaters (37% drop in gross)

In the US FOTR is CLEARLY making less per theater now compared to it's openging - I'd bet that the same is true in Australia. FOTR proably has lower drops, but after 8 weeks I'm pretty sure that there are a lot less people going to see it than there were in the first few weeks.

[Jedieb]

That still doesn't change the fact that it's regained the number spot after weeks release. Of course it's making less, but it's still making enough to top the Aussie box office, that's impressive and it's what #1 all time movies do. If FOTR doesn't get the #1 spot it's going to get very close, closer than HP or TPM did.

[Darth23]

"Regaining the top spot after weeks of release is exactly what films like ANH, ET, and Titanic did on their record setting runs."

Give me an 8 week old move with good staying power and 3-4 times as many theaters as the 2 new movies, and I'd give it a good chance of recapturing the top spot. The main reason it recaptured the top spot is becuause it's playing on a lot more screens than any other movie. It's great staying power is also a factor, but it's not like its totals are flat or INCREASING or anything. It's dropping by 26% - a great but not shocking amount.

How many theaters did it start with?

What are its week to week drops (or increases)?

How many theaters have the competing movies been playing in?

[Jedieb]

Did you ever consider that the reason it's still has those many screens is because it's STILL making money for theater owners? Also, I believe many of those theaters are smaller theaters in the sub-burbs and small towns. Now, if 8 weeks from now any of those other films in the Aussie top ten do the same thing FOTR has just done then clearly it's nothing to be impressed with. But if they don't, and they probably won't, then obviously FOTR has done something out of the ordinary.

[Darth23]

OMG.

I think the first post I made CLEARLY shows that is not making as much money for the theater ownsers as several movies that are also in the top 5:

Movie - # of theaters - per theater average

1) FOTR - 321 - $2,202US
2) Oceans 11 - 251 - $2,802US
3) Behind Enemy Lines - 229 - $3,009US
4) Spy Game - 195 - $2,459US
5) Shipping News - 86(!) - $5,294US
6) Domestic Disturbance - 117(!) - $3,450US

Dropping 26% [edit - 22%] in a week is really good but it's not not out of the ordinary.

Now if you can explain to me how theater owners would prefer to make $2202 instead of $2800 then you might have a point.

It's making less per theater than Ocean's 11, less per theater than Behind Enemy Lines (25% less), less per theater than Spy game, less than half as much as Shipping News and a lot less than Domestic Disturbance.

So the answer is YES, I thought about that and came to the conclusion that it is NOT making more for theater owners than other movies.

--------------

As another example look at Harry Potter. It's still in 117 theaters even though it's only making $800US per theater on the weekend. It's even older than FOTR, and it's playing on more theaters than one of the movies that just opened. Maybe movies usually don't open with the highest possible number of theaters possible (or even close to it) in Australia - I don't know. I have no clue about the Aussie Box Office market. I just looked at the chart at Box Office Mojo and what struck me was the fact that it's playing in a LOT more theaters than any other movies. Usually in the US this is true weeks into a movies run when it's per screen averages are still really really good.


I don't see what the big deal is. FOTR is obviously doing very well, it has good staying power AND it is somehow lucky enough to still be playing in a lot of places even though it's nowhere near being the most popular movie out there any more. (judging from the averages).

I know that you get some skewing of the results when movies are playing in a realy small number of theaters in the US but FOTR made less than 1% more than Oceans 11 last weekend while playing in 21% more venues.

Almost the same amount of money ($706,794 compared to $706,794 ) while playing in a lot more places.

To me that suggests that the number of screens it has is the main reason it got back to the number one position.

[Jedieb]

I have no cluse abotu the Aussie Box Office market.
Obviously, but Marcus does and you seem to be ignoring some of the info he's providing us.


Oh yeah, they get shafted - NOT. How about asking if LOTR has the big theatres anymore? No, in the main it doesnt - it's gone into the secodries for it's daily plays and does not play the large theatres except at peaks, like weekends. Plus, also given it's a far longer movie that Oceans or BEL, means it naturally has a lower theatre average, less chance to put bums on seats.

It seems to me FOTR is getting fewer screenings than these other films but it's still bringing in enough money to take the top spot from them. Unless you think theater owners are involved in a mass conspiracy to pump up FOTR B.O.? :lol Plus, since FOTR has been out longer than those other films, theater owners get to keep MORE of its grosses. By now, they're probably getting around $.70 on the dollar compared to the $.30 that they get off of newer releases. Bottom line, will any of these OTHER movies be bringing in this much money in their 8th week? Will any of them be challenging for the all time Aussie #1 spot? I doubt it.

[Darth23]

Conspiracy? How is it a conspiracy? Look at the numbers. The movie playing in the most theaters made the most money. Even though for several weeks the movie playing in the most theater WASN'T making the most money. Movies with a lower theater count were beating FOTR.

But it's not doing BETTER, it's just not falling as much AND the new movies aren't playing on enough screens (let's say as much as HALF of FOTR's total) to beat it.

I don't know why it's playing in more places, I don't really care. My guess would be that with all the hype and with it's great performance early on, it's still reaping residual benefits of that. We've seen other 'Big Movies' open with big numbers on a extremely large number of screens, and hold on to a lot more of those screens well after their per screen average would justify that number.

I DO know that the main reason it was able to get back to number 1 is because it's at more locations.

Do you believe that's NOT the main reason?

-------


"Obviously, but Marcus does and you seem to be ignoring some of the info he's providing us."

Uh... that's becuase his messages tend to be highly anecdotal with very little in the way of actual numbers. It's easy to say "it's not playing at many times compared to other movies". That's not something you can actually chart or demonstrate or track week to week. How many times have I said "gimme charts! gimme numbers!"?

Besides, movies then to only play in the peak times once the are making almost nothing during the off peak times - when the theaters can make more money by playing something else at those times - becuase the theater is basically empty duringthe weekday afternoons. (or weekday evenings in the case of family/kids movies).

All I'm doing is looking at numbers I can find and trying to draw conclusions that those numbers seem to imply. Marcus didn't post any figures, so I went looking for them myself.


He suggested that the averages are lower because the movie is longer and it's only playing during the peak time' - I asked if anyone had a list of it's averages since it opened. I also looked for the US averages as an example (admittedly not a perfect one) to show that the move had GREAT averages when it started and slowly weakened like pretty much every movie except Titanic.

YOU suggested that FOTR mght be profitable than the other movies, and I replied that its per screen average indicated that that is not the case.

Is there a reason to think otherwise? Like I said before - making $2200 is not as good as making $2800. Maybe it's doing exceptionally well for a movie "that's not in the big theaters" any more - but of course there's no way ot actually prove that because a list of which movies are playing in first vs second run theaters is probably impossible to get unless you work for the studios.





"Will any of these OTHER movies be bringing in this much money in their 8th week?"

Amelie has been out for 8 weeks in Australia and is making twice as much per theater. - it only has 52 theaters though. It only dropped 26% so its at least has a performance similar to FOTR. Since we can't go back week by week and look at the top 10 or top 20, we can't really know if another movie has made as much money after 8 weeks.



"Will any of them be challenging for the all time Aussie #1 spot? I doubt it."

Well I doubt if any movie will have the same number of theaters after 8 weeks. ;)


Fellowship of the Ring has made a lot of money, has great staying power AND at 8 weeks its playing in far more theaters than any other movie in the country. 4 times as many as one new film and 3 times a many as another new theater.

When you have such a disparity on theater count I believe that per screen average is definitely something important to look at.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Okay, I'll bite.

Do you want a list of the screening times??? Do you want a list of theatre sizes and seat amounts????? The fact is, I open the paper and see that LOTR is playting less than other movies per bloody day! ti may be in more theatres... but IT IS SCREENING LESS, which seems to be completely eluding you.

Do you understand how big or how small some of these threatres in Australia are? Do you undersand Amelie is playing places like Dendy, which is an art house chain, but still is quite popular? Do you know that Oceans11 is playin the big Sensstadiums, while LOTR is playing on the smaller secondry screens? These are not things that you are going to find by looking numbers.

Or if you want to put it in terms of the USA.... FOTR is in the Dollar theatres. Of course we dont have those, we have the major stadium screens, their secodries, art houses and small private ones (Like the one around the corner from me). FOTR is simply on the secondries, playing two or three times a day, Amielie is playing 5 times a day at the Dendy, FOTR plays once a day at the local private cinema.

Oceans 11 screening 6 -7 times a day on the majors, as is Behind Enemy Lines. LOTR gets 2 on peak times. Thence, once you start putting all that in, you can see, theatre screen averages do not tell the story, far from it (I walked to the local cinema near where I work and had a look at the screening times for this)

You can even have a look at this yourself. Go to www.greaterunion.com.au, look up session times. Pick NSW. (BTW, you dont have to only pick this theatre I am going to highlight, choose any others), Pich the Greater Union Cnema Complex - Thius is one of Sydney's biggest - and check out how many times FOTR is screens in comparision to Oceans 11. 10 screens Oceans 11 to FOTR's 7. Logic suggests FOTR is going to have a lower potential screen average.

But logic would also suggest in that theatre, Oceans 11 will make more money, yet FOTR has gained No. 1 again.

Therefore, the concusion must be that FOTR (Which began on 427 screens) is on a large number of smaller screens and is still playing well enough to justify the screens. It might be making less per screen, but I would say the sessions are generally more filled. Which is what the point of screening a film is.

[JMK]

Well said.

[Jedieb]

I guess Marcus pretty much ended this discussion didn't he? :thumbup

[JMK]

Somehow I don't think so....

[Marcus Telcontar]

And here are a few more considerations ...


a) The Aust Box Ofiice is now in it's weakest point of the year. The major school holidays are over. Conemas now have a bums on seats problem, cause out side of weekends, they are empty.

b) FOTR wont have No .1 weekend for long. This is undoubtfully a freak occurance and a real surprise. At the most two weeks before Black Hawk Down opens (Prescreenings this weekend)

c) Not much advertising right now. However, you never know, maybe there will be more, doubtful tho.

d) Just into repeat viewing now. Anyone who wants to see it once, has. Although, most people I know who have seen FOTR have seen it twice.

So, while it is really cool FOTR hit No .1 again, it wont last.


And if more proof required of what I say, I'll scan in the entire flaming screening lists from the newspaper for Sydney and post it :p

[Dutchy]

In Holland LOTR has been number 1 ever since its worldwide release, now 8 weeks ago.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I think it's been that way in places like Finland and Norway as well. Who'ld thought FOTR could be No 1 for that long?

[Jedieb]

Marcus, in Australia, how often does a film open at #1 and then eventually regain the top spot months later? Even if FOTR only holds it for a week or two, it's still shown remarkable legs.

[Darth23]

"I guess Marcus pretty much ended this discussion didn't he? "


Gimme a break. I left work and actually had OTHER things to do when I got home.


Look at what I had to got through to finally get a freakin link. ;)



Ok.... So it's not playing in any of the theaters it started out at? Are you saying it's ONLY playing in second run houses? My guess woud be that there's a mixture. Anecdotal remarks about a few theaters here and there is not sufficient to make your case. It started out on more locations than most movies and it's STILL in more spots.

Its lower theater average means it's not making as much for each theater owner as other movies. The reason those theater owners aren't playing it during the non-peak times is because it wouldn't make enough money to justify showing it. Because it's a 3 hour movie and no one has time to go see it in the middle of the day.

In other words, even if it was playing more times per day, it would be playing in fairly empty theaters during those additional times and it would be making about the same as it's making now. (Probably slightly more.)

Which brings us back to my original point: FOTR is playing in many more locations than any other movie, which is WHY it made it back to the top spot.

Ocean's 11 is playing all day because it makes more money in the off peak times. You say Ocean's 11 in playing in bigger theaters - but it's also playing In LESS theaters. It MIGHT have more total available seats, but it's also bringing people into those seats.


-------------

I think FOTR is doing very well, I've said that before, but nothing you've said contradicts my basic point that it made the most money last week primarily because it's playing on many more screens.

Let's make it simple:

It's per screen average is $2,000 and it took the top spot by $3000 bucks. Which means if you take just TWO theaters away from it's total it doesn't make it back to the top spot.

[Marcus Telcontar]

:sigh

I'll go scan the paper to prove it. I'll point out which theatres are the biggest and where the small ones are.

You have to remember, screen averages are done over the day, not per screening. Now unless you want me to be anal-retentive and find seat numbers in each theatre, locations and amount of times screened,

If you add it up, Oceans 11 has had more OPPORTUNITY to make money, due to the fact it is screened right now in bigger theatres, played in higher rotatation per screen. FOTR is in small houses now, less seats and screenings per day. And it still makes more money.

The point in the end is that even if LOTR is on more screens, they are not the high revenue screens, which is where Oceans 11 is. There is a big difference between a 700 seat stadium and a 100 seat local like mine. So, if ticket prices are 13 dollars, it means the stadium is rather empty, if the screen is making 3000 per day on average, even wiht more showings - while the local is rather full, given less screenings per day.

Thence, I can well see why LOTR is on plenty of screens. It's earning good money for the small screens. I'll go up to my local and see if thye are sold out in their single screening for today.

[Darth23]

I really hate losing a long post when I'm almost finished with it.




Originally posted by Marcus Q'Dunn:

Do you understand how big or how small some of these threatres in Australia are? Do you undersand Amelie is playing places like Dendy, which is an art house chain, but still is quite popular?

I mentioned Amelie becuse Eb asked about high performing films that are 8 weeks old. I know it's an art house film, so what? It's doing very well in every theater it's playing at. I could look at how Harry Potter was doing after 8 weeks, but I don't have that info available. I suppose I could just make something up, but I won't.



Originally posted by Marcus Q'Dunn:

Do you know that Oceans11 is playin the big Sensstadiums, while LOTR is playing on the smaller secondry screens? These are not things that you are going to find by looking numbers.


Or if you want to put it in terms of the USA.... FOTR is in the Dollar theatres. Of course we dont have those, we have the major stadium screens, their secodries, art houses and small private ones (Like the one around the corner from me). FOTR is simply on the secondries, playing two or three times a day, Amielie is playing 5 times a day at the Dendy, FOTR plays once a day at the local private cinema.

Oceans 11 screening 6 -7 times a day on the majors, as is Behind Enemy Lines. LOTR gets 2 on peak times. Thence, once you start putting all that in, you can see, theatre screen averages do not tell the story, far from it (I walked to the local cinema near where I work and had a look at the screening times for this)

You can even have a look at this yourself. Go to www.greaterunion.com.au, look up session times. Pick NSW. (BTW, you dont have to only pick this theatre I am going to highlight, choose any others), Pich the Greater Union Cnema Complex - Thius is one of Sydney's biggest - and check out how many times FOTR is screens in comparision to Oceans 11. 10 screens Oceans 11 to FOTR's 7. Logic suggests FOTR is going to have a lower potential screen average.

But logic would also suggest in that theatre, Oceans 11 will make more money, yet FOTR has gained No. 1 again.


If O11 is playing on bigger theaters and more times, and FOTR makes more money then logic would dictate that FOTR is probably playing in more thaters. and it is.

You can't claim that FOTR is in so many theaters because it's making enough money to justify having them; and NOT also concede that the reason it's not getting as many showings per day is because it can't make enough money during those off peak times to justify having additional showings.

You say it has so many theaters for a reason? (Profit) Fine I say that is also doesn't have as many showings for the same reason. (Profit- ot the lack there of) . You say Oceans 11 has more opportuniy to make money than FOTR, but I would suggest that that is still a CLAIM based on anedotal evidence and a quick survey of a very small sample of the total.


It really can't be proven (or at least not very easily). I woudl suggest that one reason O11 has more opportunity to make money is becuase adding additional theaters woudl not be profitable for the theater owners.

----------

But that's a minor issue, in my mind. As I said before, I don't care if it's justified is having all those theaters, or if it is suffering by having less showings per day.

My point is that [b] the reason it made it back to the top spot is because it HAS those additional locations.

-----------


Oceans 11 screening 6 -7 times a day on the majors, as is Behind Enemy Lines. LOTR gets 2 on peak times.

Ok, about this whole 'two showings per day stuff. I'm not sure if you're saying that in general O11 plays 7 times a day while FOTR only plays twice a day. It seems like that's what you're saying but I'm not sure.

I looked up the number of showings the movie has from the link you gave me. it's playing '2 times per day' in only 3 locations, it's alternate between 2 and 3 showings in in 5 more places.

It's showing 4 or MORE times per day in (about) 31 theaters. Including a few megaplexes where it's playing 10 times a day (2 screens).

If someone wants to look up how many showing Ocean's 11 has at all the theaters listed in the link or caclulate exactly how many showings on average (or total) FOTR has from this list, then be my guesy.

It seems like to me from this list (the only theater list available to me) that FOTR is still getting a chance to play quite a bit every day - at least in this one chain.
------------------------
ACT (?)

Manuka - 2 or 3 showings on alternate days (weird)

New South Wales:

Burwood Senstadium - 6 showings weekend and weekday
Campbelltown - 3 or 6 showings on alternate days
Coffs Harbour - 3 showings
Glendale Senstadium - 2 or 3 showings
Greater Union Hoyts Village Complex - 7 showings
Hornsby - 3 or 6 showings on alternate days
Hurstville - 4 or 5 showings on alternate days
Lismore - 3 showings
Liverpool - 6 or 7 showings on alternate days
Megaplex Castle Hill 16 - 7 showings

Megaplex Macquarie 16 - 2 screens:
Regular screen - 2 showings and
Senstadium - 4 showings
Entire theater - 6 showings per day

Miranda - 3 showings
Newcastle - 2 or 3 showings on alternate days
Shellharbour - 5 showings on Sun, Tues & Wednesday, 6 showing son Monday (don't ask ME why ;))
Tuggerah - 3 showings
Wollongong - 1 showing (alternating between 10am and 3pm - go figure)

Northern Territory:

Casuarina - 3 showings - Senstadium
Darwin - 2 showings

Queensland:

Australia Fair Cinemas - 3 or 5 showings on alternate days (4 showings)
Brisbane City Myer Centre - 4 showings Senstadium
Browns Plains - 5 showings
Cairns Central - Senstadium 4 or 5 showings on alternate days
Cairns Earlville - Senstadium - 3 showings
Capalaba - 5 showings
Carindale - 5 showings
Coolangatta - 2 showings
Greater Union Hoyts Southbank - Senstadium - 3 showings
Ipswich - 2 or 3 showings on alternate days (a Senstadium screen is the additional screen)
Loganholme - 5 showings
Mackay Mount Pleasant - Senstadium - 5 showings
Maroochydore - 3 showings

Megaplex Chermside - 2 screens:
Senstadium 6 showings
Gold Class (?) 4 showings
Entire Theater - 10 showings per day

Megaplex Garden City - 2 screens
Senstadium 6 or 7 showings on alternate days
Gold Class (?) 4 showings
Entire Theater - 10.5 showings per day

Megaplex Indooroopilly - 2 screens
Senstadium 5 or 7 showings on alternate days
Gold Class (?) 4 showings
Entire Theater - 10 showings per day

Morayfield - 5 showings
Pacific Fair - 5 showings
Robina - 2 or 3 showings on alternate days
Rockhampton North - Senstadium 3 showings
Strathpine - 4 showings
Toombul - 5 showings (btw Oceans' 11 is playing 4 times a day here)
Toowoomba Grand Central - Senstadium 4 showings
Townsville - 2 showings


South Australia:

Arndale - 2 screens:
Regular screen - 3 showings
Senstadium - 1 or 3 showing on alternate days.
Entire Theater - 5 showings per day

Megaplex Marion - 2 screens:
Regular screen 7 showings
Senstadium 3 showings
Entire theater - 10(!) showings per day.

Victoria:

none

[b]Western Australia:[/a]

Joondalup - 3 showings
Megaplex Innaloo - ok....
Sunday - 5 showings
Mon - 7 showings
Tue - 5 showings
Wed - 6 showings
5.75 showings average

Morley - Senstadium 5 or 6 showings on alternate days
Whitford City - 3 showings

-------------------



-----------------



Do you want a list of the screening times??? Do you want a list of theatre sizes and seat amounts????? The fact is, I open the paper and see that LOTR is playting less than other movies per bloody day! it may be in more theatres... but IT IS SCREENING LESS, which seems to be completely eluding you.


I never said that FOTR was playing more times than Ocean's 11. And my main point is that for whatever reason, FOTR is still playing on a lot more theaters than it's nearest competition and 3 and 4 times as many theaters as the two new movies.

As far as the per theater average goes, I still believe the fact that it's low average (compared to the other top 6 movies) is primarily because it's an older movie. I think that if it was a brand new film playing in the exact same theaters, its average would be significantly higher. We've seen movies that open really strong on a huge number of screens and hang on to many screens after it's definitely faded.

We all know that new movies have the best chance to be the new number one - but not if the screen count is much lower than 5 or 8 week old films.

I think that the number of theaters FOTR has is mostly the reason it got back to number 1. I think it's low drop is about another reason.

And I'd like to know how much of a factor it's 20% higher theater count was in it's return to the top.