How did we get to $460M?

[Jedieb]

Have you ever wondered exactly how we got to the B.O. totals that we have today for the OT? I've been doing some research and it's been a bit of a pain in the butt to figure out. I think I've finally figured it out, at least for ANH anyway. I'm going to be crunching the numbers for ESB and then I'll be able to tell if I've got it right. ROTJ and TPM aren't that difficult because you can track down most of their B.O. data online. ANH and ESB are a different story. Anyway, after I've done some work on ESB I'll post what I have so far. If anybody else has numbers please post them here so we can compare notes.

[Darth23]

I can get you 1997's rerelease numbers. :D

[Jedieb]

Are those regular numbers or schmnumbers?;)

[Jedieb]

Allright, I've FINALLY gotten ANH to make some sense. First things first. I started this little project by going to a couple of libraries to try to find Almanacs and back issues of Variety. I could never find anything earlier than 94 for Variety. When I checked Almanacs they didn't start posting an alltime B.O. list until 1986. At that time the total for ANH was $193.5M. By 1993 it had climbed up to 193.8. Then suddenly in 1995 ANH's total jumped all the way up to $322.0M, then $322.7 in 96. This is the number that everyone used when they started adding in the SE grosses. So what the hell happened? Well before we awaken the spirit of JediMulder let's get to the truth. All of the figures that I found in the Almanac came straight from Variety. I even called the Motion Picture Academy Library today and got numbers that confirmed the early Almanac numbers. Those early Almanac figures were based on Box Office RENTALS, not grosses. B.O. Rentals are the monies theaters pay studios for films. The person I spoke to at the MPAL told me those numbers are often multiplied with a certain formula in order to arrive at a B.O. gross. This is how it use to be done, I'm not sure what system is used now. Here are the numbers I got from MPAL for ANH:

ANH & RE-releases
77 - 127.0M
78 - 38.375M
79 - 11.538M
81 - 9.386M
82 - 8.362M

If you add it all up you get $194.661M. So how did Variety get $193.8M by 1993? It looks to me like they rounded the first 3 releases to the nearest $1M, and the last 2 to the nearest $.1M. If you do the math you come up with their $193.8. At some point someone then decided to use a formula to change those Rentals to grosses and we got to the pre SE $322M. The rest is history.

I'm still working on ESB, but does this make sense to everybody?

[Marcus Telcontar]

No..... I dont get this rental thing. Someone explain how that worked and how it's costed?

[Jedieb]

I found a book called Reel Facts or Film Facts by Cobbett Steinberg in my local library that explained what Rentals are. I even ordered a used copy on Amazon.com because I liked the book so much. From what I remember reading, studios got a certain amount from theater owners and those were the numbers that Variety reported. I'm fairly certain that's NOT how it works today. Today a studio gets around 70% of the money a film makes in the first couple of weeks and after that the theaters get the 70% of the split. But the entire gross gets reported by Exhibitors. At some point someone decided to dump the Rental numbers and convert them to the B.O. grosses we use today.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Cool study, Jedieb keep us inform on how its going. I do remember those rental numbers in the Almanac but I had forgotten all about them until you brought the back up.

[JMK]

Now I know why I flunked math and problem solving! :lol

[Jedieb]

ESB's numbers just aren't adding up. I'm off by a few million. ROTJ is pretty easy to figure out because sites like www.the-numbers.com have its entire B.O. run listed. ESB's early numbers were listed as Rentals also, but the numbers I got from the MPAL are less than the Almanac's Variety numbers. I'll post what I have for ESB and ROTJ later tonight.

[Darth23]

rentals, schmentals.

:p

[Jedieb]

Here are the B.O. rental numbers I've been able to dig up for ESB:

1980 $120.0M
1981 $14.15M
1982-83 $1.6M

The problem is that only comes out to $135.75M. By 1986 Variety had ESB at $141.6 and then they eventually increased that to $141.7M by 1993. Again these aren't B.O. grosses, they're B.O. rentals. I have no idea where the extra 5.95 came from. I don't believe there were any significant SW re-releases until the 97 SE's. So where did the money come from? It would make sense to me if Variety eventually revised some of these numbers to get to that $141.7M, but I haven't been able to track down those revised numbers. In case anyone's wondering, and I doubt anyone but me is, it looks as if the formula they used to change rental to B.O. grosses is something along the lines of (Rentals X 1.55 to1.65). If anybody can shed any light on the ESB numbers I'd appreciate it.

[Jedieb]

Eventually I might throw this up on a web page over at yavin4.com. This is what I've been able to come up with so far. A few of these are estimates, and other numbers I had to derive from the aforementioned Box Office Rentals. It'd be easier if I just rounded most of the data to the nearest $100,000. I probably will just to avoid errors. With so many numbers floating around it's tough to get everything to match down to the nearest dollar.

Individual Box Office Grosses

1977 Star Wars: A New Hope $461,998,007
1980 The Empire Strikes Back $290,271,960
1983 Return of the Jedi $309,205,079
1999 The Phantom Menace $431,088,297
2002 Attack of the Clones
2005 Episode III

First Releases
Year Film Gross Adj. for Inflation (2001)
1977 ANH $210,439,000* $614,060,000
1980 ESB $198,000,000* $425,800,000
1983 ROTJ $249,608,768 $443,000,000
1999 TPM $431,088,297 $458,420,000
2002 AOTC

Major Individual Releases
Star Wars: A New Hope
1977 $210,439,000*
1978 $63,587,375*
1979 $19,118,466
1981 $15,552,602
1982 $13,855,834
1997 $138,207,268

Empire Strikes Back
1980 $198,000,000*
1981 $23,347,500*
1983 $3,348,546
1997 $67,484,485

Return of the Jedi
1983 $249,608,768
1984 $2,873,751
1997 $45,455,570

The Phantom Menace
1999 $431,088,297

[CMJ]

Will this help out the discussion in the other BO thread??

I remember reading about rentals the first time in '93. I had a comprehensive BO book done by Variety in '89 that discussed 60 years worth of fiilm. They ONLY included rentals....

I wish I still had that book.

[Admiral Lebron]

I'm confused. o_O

[Darth23]

ANH played straight through from 1977 to 1978. In had an increasein theaters in 1978, but it never stopped playing at a lot of locations before that.

It played for over a year without a break. I should know, I saw it almost every month, and even when I didn't I was still checking to see that it was in the theaters. I even have one of the One Year anniversary newspaper ads.

[flagg]

I think it's interesting that ROTJ actually made more than ANH on its first run. That means Episode III does have a shot at passing TPM and maybe even ANH to become the most successful Star Wars film ever (unadjusted, of course).
That would be a cool way for the saga to end :)

[JMK]

Not necessarily. Episode 3 is not going to be the rousing crowd pleaser that ROTJ is. As a matter of fact, it will probably be the total opposite of a crowd pleaser. At this point, the biggest thing Episode 3 has going for it is that its the last SW movie.

[Jedieb]

If AOTC had better numbers I'd have hope for EP3. But it's gross is well behind the pace of ESB to ANH. I don't see EP3 doing much better than $400M, even with inflation. I think it might do 10-15% better than AOTC plus inflation. We'll have to wait and see where ticket prices are when 2005 rolls around.

What I find interesting is how clearly ANH's numbers outperform the other SW movies. If you look at ANH's re-releases you see how much better it held up than the other SW movies. Just look at the re-releases from 79-85:

ANH
1979 $19,118,466
1981 $15,552,602
1982 $13,855,834
1997 $138,207,268

Empire Strikes Back
1981 $23,347,500*
1983 $3,348,546
1997 $67,484,485

Return of the Jedi
1984 $2,873,751

People have often attributed ANH huge SE numbers to it being released first. Then why did ESB and ROTJ fall short of ANH's 82 re-release? They had the benefit of inflation and they were the only SW film out that year. If you count 78, ANH's 82 release was its 4th major re-release and it crushed ESB's 2nd release and ROTJ's 84 gross. I don't think we'll ever see a SW film have stronger re-releases than ANH.

[Darth23]

ESB didn't make as much because it's a bummer fo a movie with no ending.

ROTJ didn't make as much because it's rerelease wasn't leading into any other movie.

I don't actually remember ROTJ beign re-released in 1984 - was this maybe a continuation of it's run frim 1983?

[Jedieb]

If I remember my research right, ROTJ ran from May all the way into the next year. So those 1984 numbers are probably Jan. - Mar. grosses. I can't find the notebook that had all my data so I can't confirm that. A quick check at www.the-number.com could probably confirm this. They have quite a bit of data on ROTJ.

ANH made more money because it's ALWAYS made more money. It's got the widest appeal and when you adjust the numbers is far outdistances all other SW movies. It's not just that ANH was always first. It's re-releases have always been stronger, even in the 70's and 80's. Could any other SW film have been released into theaters in it's second year and still been a top 20 film? Not one of them except ANH was capable of that. Even if you don't count the 78 re-release, you can still ask if any other SW film could have been a B.O. force for two consecutive years? The answer is no. Four of them have had the chance and none of them has even come close.

[flagg]

Originally posted by Jedieb
If AOTC had better numbers I'd have hope for EP3. But it's gross is well behind the pace of ESB to ANH.

I thought ESB had almost exactly the same drop-off from ANH as AOTC has from TPM? If you don't count the SEs, both ESB and AOTC earned about 70% of the box office of the film they followed. That means the prequel trilogy is following the same BO pattern as the originals so far. Episode III will definitely make more than AOTC. How much higher it can get depends on word of mouth. Maybe even the critics will love Episode III. Stranger things have happened :)

[flagg]

Another thing I mentioned before: why is ROTJ's international box office so much lower than the other films according to Box Office Mojo? Since it made more than ESB in America, I can't believe it did that badly in the rest of the world. If it really made only $470 million, that would mean it was the only SW film to make less than $200 million overseas.
Worldwideboxoffice.com has ROTJ at $572 million, which sounds more reasonable to me.

[Jedieb]

If you take inflation into account ROTJ did not perform that much better than ESB domestically. Also, ROTJ was the first SW movie to open to a wide release. Both ANH and ESB opened on a limited number of screens. In fact, ANH ranked 2nd behind Smokey and the Bandit in it's opening weekend. But it's screen averages were so massive that it was stunning that the filmed opened at #2 in the first place. I think it managed the feat in less than 100 theaters. ESB had more screens, but no where near as many as ROTJ. I'm going off memory here so I could be mistaken about ESB screens, but I'm pretty sure about ANH. ROTJ was not as succesful overseas as ANH or ESB. Even with inflation it ranks behind ESB's WW B.O. take.

[Jedieb]

Quick Note:
ROTJ opened in 83 with an astounding $40,842 theater average in 1,002 theaters. I have no idea what the screen count was. Today it ranks 55th in all time opening weekends when you adjust for inflation. At least, before we tally this weekend's opening for MIB2.

the-numbers.com
30
Return of the Jedi
Fox
$470.5 (WW total)
$309.3 (Domestic)
65.7% (%of gross)
$161.2 (International)
34.3% (%of gross)
1983

boxofficemojo.com
30
Return of the Jedi
Fox
$470.5
$309.3
65.7%
$161.2
34.3%
1983
Both thenumbers.com and boxofficemojo have identical WW numbers for ROTJ. They both get their numbers from exhibitor so I think these are the official numbers.

[Lady Vader]

Hmmm... I wonder...

What were to happen if say down the line Lucas decided to release all six movies as one gigantic movie (obviously with breaks in between and stuff for food and potty). But anyways, if this were to happen, though I highly doubt it, doesn't that mean that they'd have to smack all the amounts every movie made together, thus making it HUGELY big and at the top for all time?

Am I totally reaching out on a limb here? :lol

[CMJ]

Yeah...I think you're way out on a limb. :p

[Jedieb]

I think we'll see a consecutive release of all 6 films one day. Man, that'll be a fun filled two months. I can also see a big screening or two at the next SW convention where they show the current 5 movies. Maybe at a 30th Anniversary convention will get Lady Vader's wish..