The Oscar race begins

[Jedi Master Carr]

In case anybody hasn't heard the Oscars nomination will be announced tomorrow so does anybody want to guess who will get the major nods.
I will guess Best picture right now
A Beautiful Mind
FOTR
In the Bedroom
Moulin Rouge
Black Hawk Down

3 of them are just about guarenteed (ABM, FOTR, MR) In the Bedroom should get the 4th, Black Hawk Down could get it but it could go to another film (Mulhouland Drive, Gosford Park I guess are possibilities) but I think these will be the five
I am not sure I want to tackle the others right now especially the acting nods I am not sure besides Crowe and Washington who will get one. I do think FOTR will have the most nominations (mostly because of all the technical stuff) I am guessing it will get 13.

[darth_mcbain]

Those all look like good possibilities. Wasn't Life as a House supposed to have been pretty good? I wonder if that would get a nod? Don't know as I never saw it, but I thought I remembered hearing it might have had some Oscar material.

And while I think FOTR will get a nod, I somehow don't think it will win. Just a feeling I have.

[ReaperFett]

Well, it wont happen, but my little picks:

BEST FILM: Black Hawk Down
BEST DIRECTOR: Ridley Scott(BHD)
BEST ACTOR: Eric Bana(BHD)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sean Bean(LOTR)
BEST SPECIAL EFFECTS: LOTR
BEST SOUND: BHD



Hope Buscemi gets a nommo too. Not seen Ghostworld, but he deserves it for effort :)

[JMK]

My picks for best film are:
A Beautiful Mind
FOTR
In the Bedroom
Moulin Rouge
Gosford Park

I expect FOTR and ABM to be the big winners on the night, but I have no idea who will win the acting awards as I haven't seen alot of stuff like In the Bedroom, Gosford Park, Black Hawk Down...

[Darth23]

Shrek
Monsters Inc
Final Fantasy
Moulin Rouge
FOTR


I know, as if.

[CMJ]

I'll post my huge prediction list later tonight....

[Jedi Master Carr]

Best Actor
Denzel Washington (Training Day)
Russel Crowe (A Beautiful Mind
Sean Penn (I am Sam they love nominating him for some reason)
Tom Wilkerson (In the Bedroom)
Will Smith (Ali) everybody thinks he is going to get it got me why)
outside chances
Kevin Kline (Life is a House) and Ian Mckellen FOTR) though I think Mckellen has a better shot in the Supporting actor
Now I think Washigton will win
(if Crowe wins I will puke) Washington deserves it IMO he was incredible in Training Day and a way better actor than Crowe (I have no idea how he won the Golden Globe)

Actress
Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom)
Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge)
Judi Dench (Iris)
Hallie Berry (Monsters Ball)
Tilda Swinton (The Deep End) (I have no idea for the last one so I am taking Yahoo's guess

Director
Robert Altman (Gosford Park)
Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind)
Peter Jackson (FOTR)
Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge)
Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down)
Two more possibility is David Lynch (Mulhouland Drive) and director of In the Bedroom (can't think of his name)
Best supporting Actor
Ian Mckellan (FOTR)
Hayden Christisen (Life is a House he has been nominated by most of the major ones so far)
Jon Voigt (Ali)
Jim Broadbent (Iris)
Ethan Hawke (Training Day)
a couple other possiblities are Viggo Mortensen( FOTR), Steve Buschemi (Ghost World), and Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast)
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Connely (A Beautiful Mind)
Judi Dench (The Shipping News)
Anjelica Huston (The Royal Tenenbaums)
Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith (Gosford Park)
Marisa Tomei (In the Bedroom)
Kate Winslet (Iris). (I just copied Yahoo here as I did most of it some of these movies I haven't seen and probably never will)
Animated Film
Shrek
Monsters INC
And something else have no clue what else they could name?
I am not going throught the Technical Awards I am bad judge on some of them and haven't been following all the different guild annocements.

[CMJ]

Well the noms are out..I fell asleep lst night before I could come back and make my predictions.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'll post them when I find with my thoughts.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here they are all of them had to go to the oscar site just to get them
BEST PICTURE
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
GOSFORD PARK
IN THE BEDROOM
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
JIMMY NEUTRON: BOY GENIUS
MONSTERS, INC.
SHREK

Best DIRECOR
Ron Howard A BEAUTIFUL MIND
Ridley Scott BLACK HAWK DOWN
Robert Altman GOSFORD PARK
Peter Jackson THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING MULHOLLAND DRIVE
David Lynch MULHOLLAND DRIVE

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Russell Crowe
Sean Penn
Will Smith
Denzel Washington
Tom Wilkinson

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Halle Berry
Judi Dench
Nicole Kidman
Sissy Spacek
Renée Zellweger

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jim Broadbent
Ethan Hawke
Ben Kingsley
Ian McKellen
Jon Voight

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Connelly
Helen Mirren
Maggie Smith
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
GHOST WORLD
IN THE BEDROOM
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
SHREK

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
AMÉLIE
GOSFORD PARK
MEMENTO
MONSTER'S BALL
THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AMÉLIE
ELLING
LAGAAN
NO MAN'S LAND
SON OF THE BRIDE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
CHILDREN UNDERGROUND
LALEE'S KIN: THE LEGACY OF COTTON
MURDER ON A SUNDAY MORNING
PROMISES
WAR PHOTOGRAPHER

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
ARTISTS AND ORPHANS: A TRUE DRAMA
SING!
THOTH

SHORT FILM -- ANIMATED
FIFTY PERCENT GREY
FOR THE BIRDS
GIVE UP YER AUL SINS
STRANGE INVADERS
STUBBLE TROUBLE

SHORT FILM -- LIVE ACTION
THE ACCOUNTANT
COPY SHOP
GREGOR'S GREATEST INVENTION
A MAN THING (Meska Sprawa)
SPEED FOR THESPIANS

SOUND
AMÉLIE
BLACK HAWK DOWN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE
PEARL HARBOR

SOUND EDITING
MONSTERS, INC.
PEARL HARBOR
LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING

VISUAL EFFECTS
A.I. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
PEARL HARBOR

MAKEUP
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE

MUSIC (SCORE)
A.I. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MONSTERS, INC.

MUSIC (SONG)
KATE & LEOPOLD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MONSTERS, INC.
PEARL HARBOR
VANILLA SKY

FILM EDITING
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
BLACK HAWK DOWN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MEMENTO
MOULIN ROUGE

ART DIRECTION
AMÉLIE
GOSFORD PARK
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE

CINEMATOGRAPHY
AMÉLIE
BLACK HAWK DOWN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
THE MAN WHO WASN'T THERE
MOULIN ROUGE

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AFFAIR OF THE NECKLACE
GOSFORD PARK
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE


first off surprises, Black Hawk Down got Snubbed why did that overrated Gosford Park get it is beyond me. David Lynch over Baz Luhrmann, now I don't care for Moulin Rogue (I think Mulhouland Drive looks worst) but still that is a surprise. Gene Hackman got snubbed, I am not really surprised but some people are, also I am sure Reaper will be upset that Bushchemi didn't get it and I was hoping for Hayden Christensen but I was still happy that McKellan got nominated (is that an omen the same as Guiness getting it for Star Wars 25 years ago). Also Pearl Harbor, even though it got razzies yesterday it got 4 nominations (3 in the effects areas) I wasn't sure it was going to get that many though I felt it deserved it Visual Effects actually they got that right this year, I was think HP would get a nod but the three that got it had way better Special effects.

As far as totals FOTR had 13 (one shy of the record)
A Beautiful Mind and Moulin Rouge each had 8

One last thing not sure if its going to help FOTR but 14 out of the last 15 Best picture Oscar winners had the most nominations (I think the exception was Silence of the Lambs I think Bugsy got more nods but I can' remember maybe CMJ can help me out there)
I was also surprised that Will Smith got a nod that actually set a record the first 3 African American Actors got nomination (Smith, Washington, Berry) I think Washington will take Best Actor (he better he deserves it) As far as Best Picture A Beautiful Mind is the front runner I must say but anything is possible maybe FOTR will sweep (If Mckellan takes home Best supporting Actor watch out) I am hopefull it will but I am not expecting, still I will ABM over Moulin Rouge or Gosford Park easily.

[CMJ]

I'll go category by categry later but the 5 best Picture noms were what I was expecting(unfortuntely).

[JonathanLB]

BEFORE today, some people said A Beautiful Mind was the front runner. TODAY and after, Lord of the Rings is in total control and anything else would be considered a major upset.

With thirteen nominations, if Lord of the Rings does take best picture, it will also go on to win just about every other category, especially director. I will say right now there is hardly any surer thing than Jackson standing up there accepting a best director Oscar, except perhaps that the sun will rise tomorrow as it did today. ;)

Nice to see Ridley Scott nominated even if his picture was not. That is very weird, though. I tend to think that if a director is nominated, the picture should be nominated, but same is not true of the opposite. In some cases, the picture is great, the director was just good, didn't deserve consideration. But when a director gets nominated for a film that clearly was deserving of consideration (as in, it wasn't a low budget, tiny film, it was a major blockbuster), I think the best picture nom. should follow. Oh well, I don't really care that much. I don't think that Black Hawk Down was probably one of my top 5 films of the year. It was close I bet though. I'm trying to think... Uhh, yeah, LOTR, AI, Memento, Shrek, and... I'm not sure #5. Maybe it is BHD.

Congratulations to John Williams for TWO Oscar nominations in the same year! How about that? He's done it all before, but this makes seven years in a row where he has been nominated at least one time.

[Jedi Master Carr]

CMJ, were you rooting for something else in Best Picture? I am guessing Black Hawk Down which I was surprised was snubbed. As far as guarenting FOTR for getting best picture, I am not that optomistic sure there is the thing about getting the most nods, but SW and ET both had the most nominations and neither won best picture and I afraid it could happen again. Sure I don't think its right because in the case of the first two they are all are classics and gotten beaten out by what many would consider today inferior films. I doubt there are too many who would or could argue that Annie Hall is a better movie than SW or Ghandi was better than ET, and I think it 25 years the same will be the case for the FOTR. Sure I am hoping that it wins best picture, but I would be happy if Jackson or Mckellan won too, and take that alone as success. Still, FOTR will win the most Oscars somewhere between 7-10 is my guess (it all depends on how it does on the biggies) and that is a huge thing any film that wins 7 Oscars is amazing, what was the last to win that many Titantic? I can't think of anything else that won more than 5 or 6 in the last ten years at least.

[CMJ]

Jon...I think FOTR and ABM are both frontrunners..kind of a duel frontunner thing... Sort of like '98 with Private Ryan..and Shakeaspeare in Love.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That makes since CMJ, who was the favorite that year Saving Private Ryan? I know it was a shock to most that Shakespear in Love won, but it was the critics favorite didn't it get 90%+ postive reviews from Rotten tomatoes?

[Darth23]

I think Beautiful Min is the fron runner - at least in the major categories.

It won the Golden Globes (I know, who cares) and it's more like the kind of movie Hollywood likes to promote.

Maybe FOTR could change Hollywood's general dislike for genre pics, but since it has so many technical mons I think it might get screwed on some or all of the 'serious' awards.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is what I am afraid will happen Darth, it will do what Star Wars and ET both did but who knows maybe they have changed in 20 years we can at least hope. Heck I be happy if Mckellan just won, he's got a great chance the race at Supporting Actor seems wide open IMO, there isn't one that stands out.

[CMJ]

Jedi Master Carr...SHAKEASPEARE IN LOVE won 7 awards...

And SIL and SPR were both considered frontrunners...the buzz right befre the telecast said SIL had a chance. When Spielberg won Best Director everyone thought SPR would prevail.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Oh Okay I wasn't really sure I knew it one at least 5 but I couldn't remember all the technical stuff from that year.

[ReaperFett]

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Russell Crowe - A BEAUTIFUL MIND

Sean Penn - I AM SAM

Will Smith - ALI

Denzel Washington - TRAINING DAY

Tom Wilkinson - IN THE BEDROOM

Glad Smith is there. Not seen the film, but the amount of work he put into it really is staggering


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jim Broadbent - IRIS

Ethan Hawke - TRAINING DAY

Ben Kingsley - SEXY BEAST

Ian McKellen - LORD OF THE RINGS - FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING

Jon Voight - ALI



Three Brits, but no Sean Bean. A crime, a true crime


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Halle Berry - MONSTER'S BALL

Judi Dench - IRIS

Nicole Kidman - MOULIN ROUGE

Sissy Spacek - IN THE BEDROOM

Renée Zellweger - BRIDGET JONES' DIARY


ZELLWEGER? Noone ever seemd to mention her :)


DIRECTING
A BEAUTIFUL MIND - Ron Howard

BLACK HAWK DOWN - Ridley Scott

GOSFORD PARK - Robert Altman

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING - Peter Jackson

MULHOLLAND DRIVE - David Lynch


Goooooooooo Ridders! :)


BEST PICTURE
A BEAUTIFUL MIND

GOSFORD PARK

IN THE BEDROOM

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING

MOULIN ROUGE


My pick didnt make it, I stop caring :)


SOUND EDITING
MONSTERS, INC.

PEARL HARBOR


WHAT ABOUT BHD OR LOTR? OR IN FACT, A THIRD FILM???


Ewww, LOTR got the score and original score nods. Oh well :)


Another year, another dissapointment IMO. No doubt few will agree, simply because of one film.

[ReaperFett]

Heh, I just noticed. Two nominations for the same person(WInslet/Dench as Iris) :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Whoops I made a copying mistake on Sound Editing, LOTR got the other nod, as far as Score I like the LOTR soundtract the composer did a pretty good job, I doubt the song will win I think McCartney for Vanilla Sky will probably get it.

Back to SPR vs SIL I just remember most of the experts picking SPR to win, I do think people gave SIL a chance though. Another upset was Braveheart, nobody picked that to win also I think Silence of the Lambs surprised people most were picking Bugsy and The Prince of Tides as I recall.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Heh, FOTR gets 13. Hope it sweeps the lot :)

More serious comment at 10 :)

[CMJ]

Overall I think it's the weakest set of Best Picture nominee's since '96(The year of ENGLISH PATIENT). It's gonna be a war between FOTR and BM that is for certain. Baz Luhrman's exclusion from the Director's race weaken MR's chances.

Altman very well might win the Director award...as a lifetime type of deal. Crow has his hands full with Washington..Ethan Hawke's nominee strengthen's Washington's chances. Spacek is all but certain to win Actress.

Supporting actor...I think Kingsley will pull through. His performance is highly praised. I think Connoley will take Best Supporting Actress.

These are all early thoughts...I will n doubt post much more about ALL the categories(including the technical ones) as we grow closer.

I was hoping for a "Black hawk Down" nomination..or as long shot as would've been.."Memento". "Gosford Park" was really dissapointing to me, but it does have it's fans, including people I know.

[ReaperFett]

Spacek is all but certain to win Actress
My money would be on Judi Dench, they love her.


Im suprised Memento got nothing too, considering its hype



BTW, Shrek got best adapted screenplay. Adapted from what, fairie tales? :)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Shrek was a book to begin with.

Now I preused the list, I have to say that's quite a fair set. While I have no doubt LOTR will win a few statues, it will not win best picture. I just dont see it happening, tho I would love to be proved wrong. A Beautiful mind just seems to be the type of movie the Acadamy will go for.

I beleive however, Jackson could well win Director, which he truly deserves. FOTR seems to be seen as an achievement. If there is a FOTR sweep in the technicals, I would say this would will be the best bet. Lynch and Ridley Scott will not win Director.

FOTR will need to sweep the technicals to have any chance of best movie also. So, if it does winbest movie, I think 9 awards. I think 6 -7 technicals are likely.

Best Animated feature -

Monsters Inc. Barely. Although I wont be dissappointed if Shrek wins. Johnny Neutron, Boy Genius? WTF? How dod that scorce a nomination over Waking Life???

Actor -

If Crowe does not win Best Actor, A Beautiful Mind will not win anything.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Not necessarily I think they might pick Washington because they feel he is more deserving, I think he is he did a heck of a job in Training Day and deserves an Oscar IMO, Crowe to me is overrated he is no where near the actor Washington is.

[ReaperFett]

Anyone notice btw? Of the 20 actors/actresses nominated, eight are British. Careful US, we're invading! ;)

[Marcus Telcontar]

And two are Aussies.

I'm sort of hoping they lose, although I think Crowe may well get another statue :/

[Jedi Master Carr]

Washington better get or I am going to be upset, he deserves it.

[ReaperFett]

Not seen any this year from that category, so cannot comment. I'd like Smith to win though

[JMK]

I'd like to see someone other than Crowe or Washington win. Crowe seems to me anyway to be Hollywood's "it" guy and it's cool to have him around. While he was amazing in ABM, I still hope someone else gets it. Like Reaper, I'd also like to see Will Smith get it.

[Marcus Telcontar]

http://www.filmsite.org/oscars2.html#2


This is the list of moives that have won the most noimations, the year, and how much they eventually won.

History suggests FOTR will win minimum 5 awards - but stands an even money chance of not winning the Best Picture award.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Please God not Smith, its nice to see him nominated but his ego is high enough as it is if he wins Best Actor now he might think he can go on and become President (he is seriously thinking of running now) Now Denzel I like he seems to be a great guy and I have enjoyed most of his movies including: Remember the Titans, Courage Under Fire, The Siege, Glory, and The Hurricaine. Also if he wins it would only be fitting the only Black Actor ever to win Best Actor is getting presented a lifetime achievement award it would be fitting that Washington would win.

[ReaperFett]

but his ego is high enough as it is if he wins Best Actor now he might think he can go on and become President
I've seen shedloads of interviews with him. To me, he's not changed. He's still the warm funny guy he was. I wish more actors were like him or Clooney instead of "Acting is just a job" Washington(His words, not mine. Sounded like a real moaner)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Washington is not the only Harrison Ford has basically said that and I am sure there others that is just how they view their profession which I understand. Smith though wants to be President I mean sure its possible but he is only 30 something I think he needs to stick to acting because I doubt he could go into Politics, first off they will dig up all kinds of dirt on him and then it will just be a mess.

[ReaperFett]

Ahh, but there wont be much dirt on him yet. He's perfect :)


And so what if he knows nothing? You let Bush in ;) :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

:lol true though I didn't vote for him, but I am not getting into that argument.

[JonathanLB]

I like Bush's quote, "Hey all you C students, let this be a lesson to you. You too can become President of the United States!"

I would have voted Bush for sure, but can't you just imagine the guy flinging rubberbands at his classmates, making paper airplanes, disturbing the teachers, lol. I just can envision that for some reason. It's a funny thought :)

This is the perfect year to start watching the awards again, then watch them snub FOTR, then vow never to watch again.

So, I will obviously stand by what I said before -- I do not watch the Academy Awards. I have better things to do than watch the Academy give each other hand jobs, haha. Losers.

[CMJ]

Category by category...based on what I've SEEN..not what I've heard. I'm, like every year, gonna try and see all the nominated stuff I can so I can have my own full feldged opinions. These are not want I think will win..but what I WANT to win.



Best Picture: I've seen all but "In the Bedroom". ABM is the standout in a failry weak list...to me the weakest in sevral years. I hope to see "Bedroom" soon so I can say for certain..but right now..ABM all the way.

Best Director: Seen all the directed films but "Mullholland Drive". I'd say Ridley Scott would be the deserving winner IMHO, for one of the most brilliantly directed battle sequences I've ever seen. I know he doesn't stand a chance..but he would get my vote(provided I didn't think Lynch did after I see "Drive".

Best Actor: Amazingly I've only seen 2 of these performances so far..that will soon change. Both Crowe and Washington were great but I'd vote for Crowe.

Best Actress: Haven't seen Dame Judi or Spacek. The oths were all good...but Halle Berry gave the performance of her life and she would definitely get my vote.

Best Supporting Actor: Only seen Ethan Hawke and McKellan so far. Hawke basically played a flat character..even if very well. I'd say McKellan for now..but I still have 3 performances to see.

Best Supporting Actress: Haven't seen Winslett or Tomei yet. The Gosford Park ladies were good..especially Maggie Smith(she was hysterical), but Jennifer Connelly blew them away IMHO.

Animated Feature: Only seen "Shrek" so I guess it would get my vote.

Art/Set Direction:Haven't seen "Amelie"... The rest were all very good and very deserving. I'd personally go with FOTR I think, though, I really can't complain about any of the choices.

Cinematography: Haven't seen "Man who wasn't There" or "Amelie". Of the other three "Black Hawk Down" would get my vote.

Costume Design: Seen all but "Affair of the Necklace". My vote for best Costume design would goto Moulin Rouge. Not a very good film..but great costumes.

Editing: Seen all 5 nominee's. I would say "Memento" was the best edited film all year(thus I would vote for it)...though any but "Moulin Rouge" would be more than deserving of the award.

Make-Up: Seen all 3...obviously FOTR deserves this award.

Score: Have seen all but "Monsters Inc". John Williams outdid himself with his haunting score for "A.I."..his best score in years(yes even better than TPM to me).

Song: Seen 3 of the films. I guess I'd go with "Vanilla Sky" but none of these songs really did much for me.

Best Sound: Seen all but "Amelie"(hell I might so see that today). "Black Hawk Down" was one of the most remarkable sounding films I've ever seen.

Best Sound Editing: "Pearl Harbor" I guess...haven't seen the other nominess(Monster's Inc)...plus PH really did have nice sound fx.

Best Visual Effects: Seen all three. "A.I." had the best effects I've ever seen..absolutely remarkable.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Haven't seen "Ghost World" or "In the Bedroom". As far as the other three nominee's...ABM takes it.

Best Original Screenplay: Seen all but "Amelie". Nonetheless..."Memento" was one of the most original and remarkable films I've ever seen..thus it deserves this award.

TOTALS: Beautiful Mind - 4
Fellowship of the Ring - 3
Black Hawk Down - 3
Memento - 2
A.I. Artificial Intelligence - 2
Monster's Ball - 1
Shrek - 1
Moulin Rouge - 1
Vanilla Sky - 1

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL, I think George C Scott said the same thing once (he desipised the Oscars and never went even when he got one for Patton) I will probably watch it, my biggest complaint with the Oscars has always been length, 2000's version was especially painfull, the thing must have lasted 4 hours or longer and they kept doing this dumb tributes (Tribute to Cowboys for example) I wasn't able to watch last years but it did seem shorter than some in the past lets hope that trend continues.

[Jedieb]

Who's hosting?

[CMJ]

Whoopi Goldburg is...surpirsed no one has mentioned my thoughts on th awards yet. :P

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'll make my own predictions later on and who I think should win vs who will but I want to wait a bit till we get closer to it, also I just realized its on March 24 which is a Sunday. Is that first? It is usually has been on Mondays I though.

[CMJ]

It was moved to Sunday's 2 years ago as an experiment..now this'll be the 3rd year they've been on Sunday night.

[ReaperFett]

surpirsed no one has mentioned my thoughts on th awards yet
Only three for BHD? :)

[CMJ]

Considering it was only up for 4 TOTAL I think I had it fare well...:P

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay I just remember it being on Monday, oh I do have a comment on your pics only 3 for FOTR what :P Seriously I think it will sweep most of the technical stuff especialy visual, sound, sound editing, art direction, makeup and probably ciniematography. I am not sure about editing and score could go either way, I actually think Williams will not get it because his two films will probably negate each other, if Moulin Rouge was up for it would win but I guess they its because none of the music is actually original.

[CMJ]

Hey I know FOTR is the likely winner in many of those categories..doesn't mean I have to agree with it though. :P

It can't win sound editing..it isn't nominated for it.

FOTR has stiff comprtition in many of it's categories..I could see it winning as MANY as 10-11 and as FEW as 3-5. In many technical area's it's doing battle with BHD(a technical marvel IMHO).

In many of the others it's going against MR. You can really sense here in LA support for Luhrman's film, not that I agree with it. I could see MR taking many of the art type categories.

As for cinematography...Roger Deakins for "The Man Who wasn't There" is considered the frontrunner, though I could see FOTR stealing that category.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I thought I had made a mistake there and that it got nominated in that category, I wonder why they only nominated two films that doesn't make any sense:huh, I still say it will at least 6 or 7 at least but that is just my opinion.

[ReaperFett]

beat last years. U-571 and Space Cowboys. WHY them two? :)

[CMJ]

Updated thoughts....I'll post predictions in a week or 2. ;)


Best Picture: I've seen all nominated films. ABM is the standout in a fairly weak list...to me the weakest in several years. ITB is also a strong film filled with magnificent performances. If Spacek or Wilkinson win their categories I'd be fine. FOTR is the fan favorite(at least here) but would be my 3rd choice(personally I think it's a weak nomination, so sue me). The last 2 would make me ill if they won.

Best Director: Seen all the directed films. I'd say Ridley Scott would be the deserving winner IMHO, for one of the most brilliantly directed battle sequences I've ever seen. Howard's actors gave terrific performances which is a credit to him. Jackson's film's sheer scope is impressive. Altman winning would be a career acheivement thing...a kiss and make up award. Lynch's film is a definite director's vision...but the last 3rd was way too surreal.

Best Actor: I still think I would vote for Crowe.
However I would not be disappointed if Washington OR Wilkinson won..both are deserving. I still haven't seen Smith. Penn was really good...but he's the weakest of the nominee's I've seen.

Best Actress: Halle Berry gave the performance of her life. However...I can honestly say I would not be devastated with any of them winning. They were all really good.

Best Supporting Actor: Haven't seen Voight. However...Broadbent was marvelous and I can't imagine anyone being better. Kingsley was the best thing about a lousy film..McKellan was great, and Hwke was actually good(his performance is better the more I think about it).

Best Supporting Actress: I'd still say Connoley...but Winslett is close behind... I actually could see her upsetting Jennifer at this point for some odd reason.

Animated Feature: Only seen "Shrek" so I guess it would get my vote.

Art/Set Direction: All very good and very deserving. I'd personally go with FOTR I think, though, I really can't complain about any of the choices.

Cinematography: Haven't seen "Man who wasn't There". Of the other fou "Black Hawk Down" would get my vote. Of course I really think the visuals in all of these films are worthy.

Costume Design: Seen all but "Affair of the Necklace". My vote for best Costume design would goto Moulin Rouge. Not a very good film..but great costumes.

Editing: Seen all 5 nominee's. I would say "Memento" was the best edited film all year(thus I would vote for it)...though any but "Moulin Rouge" would be more than deserving of the award.

Make-Up: Seen all 3...obviously FOTR deserves this award.

Score: Have seen all but "Monsters Inc". John Williams outdid himself with his haunting score for "A.I."..his best score in years(yes even better than TPM to me).

Song: In retrospect I think I'd give the song to FOTR.

Best Sound: "Black Hawk Down" was one of the most remarkable sounding films I've ever seen.

Best Sound Editing: "Pearl Harbor" I guess...haven't seen the other nominess(Monster's Inc)...plus PH really did have nice sound fx.

Best Visual Effects: Seen all three. "A.I." had the best effects I've ever seen..absolutely remarkable.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Haven't seen "Ghost World". As far as the other four nominee's...ABM takes it(by a nose over "Bedroom").

Best Original Screenplay: Seen all of them. All are worthy nominee's..well maybe not GP. :P Nonetheless..."Memento" was one of the most original and remarkable films I've ever seen..thus it deserves this award

[JMK]

Good job CMJ! Very concise & comprehensive! ;)

[CMJ]

Thanks Man. ;) I try.

[CMJ]

Lat year I did very well. I got like 15 of 19 correct or something like that. Anyways..here are my predictions with analysis.

BEST PICTURE
*A BEAUTIFUL MIND
GOSFORD PARK
IN THE BEDROOM
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE

This is a strong 3 way race. I can see MR of FOTR winning as well. MR has passionate support..but people who don't like it REALLY don't like it. FOTR is big and epic, but I'm not sure the Academy will honor a fantasy film. ABM is the "safe" choice. Most people seem to enjoy it(it doesn't skew towards youth or older or male or female)..and it's DGA win was huge.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
JIMMY NEUTRON: BOY GENIUS
MONSTERS, INC.
*SHREK

The smart money is on "Shrek", it was highly regaurded by just about everyone AND it was a BO smash hit. But "Monster's" has 4 total nominatons so I could see it pulling off a surprise.

Best Director
*Ron Howard A BEAUTIFUL MIND
Ridley Scott BLACK HAWK DOWN
Robert Altman GOSFORD PARK
Peter Jackson THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING MULHOLLAND DRIVE
David Lynch MULHOLLAND DRIVE

This is a toughie. I think Altman will really give Howard a run for his money, because the Academy feels huilty because the man has never won an Award, though he's considered one of the greatest filmmakers of the last 30 or so years. Nonethless I believe Howard's DGA win will spur him to victory.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Russell Crowe
Sean Penn
Will Smith
*Denzel Washington
Tom Wilkinson

Denzel has lost just about every major precursor to Crowe..yet I feel a late surge in favor of Washington. I think this might be one of the closest votes of the evening...but I think Denzzel will come out on top. Wilkinson COULD benefit from a split vote..but not likely.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
*Halle Berry
Judi Dench
Nicole Kidman
Sissy Spacek
Renée Zellweger

Here I am picking another upset. Spacek was considered the frontrunner till the SAG's, but now I expect either Kidman or Berry to edge her out. I figure either Washington or Berry will win(because of the recent hubub over black winners..or the lack there of) so I'm gonna pick BOTH of them so I get one right. ;)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jim Broadbent
Ethan Hawke
Ben Kingsley
*Ian McKellen
Jon Voight

FOTR will get it's 1 major award in this category. McKellan is due, plus they will want to give it "something big" and this seems the most logical category. Broadbent and Kingsley lurk just behind and might win.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*Jennifer Connelly
Helen Mirren
Maggie Smith
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet

About as sure a thing as there is. If ABM loses this, that's an early indication it's in trouble for the big categories later on.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
*A BEAUTIFUL MIND
GHOST WORLD
IN THE BEDROOM
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
SHREK

Goldsman has won the Globe, the BAFTA, and th WGA. I'm pretty sure he's gonna win this too.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
AMÉLIE
*GOSFORD PARK
MEMENTO
MONSTER'S BALL
THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS

With all my hear I want "Memento" to win...but GP will net it's 1 award of the evening in this category. God how I hope I'm wrong!

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
*AMÉLIE
ELLING
LAGAAN
NO MAN'S LAND
SON OF THE BRIDE

A no brainer...it has 5 total nominations, it should win this in a walk.

SOUND
AMÉLIE
BLACK HAWK DOWN
*THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE
PEARL HARBOR

FOTR won the sound Guild last week, so I'm gonna take it here. I think "Black Hawk" MIGHT win here though, so it gets some kind of recognition.

SOUND EDITING
MONSTERS, INC.
*PEARL HARBOR

PH was the only film nominated in both sound categories..which means it should win one of them you would think.

VISUAL EFFECTS
A.I. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
*THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
PEARL HARBOR

Not even close..even though I would vote for "A.I."..FOTR has it in the bag.

MAKEUP
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
*THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE

If FOTR loses here it has NO shot at Best Picture.

MUSIC (SCORE)
A.I. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
*A BEAUTIFUL MIND
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MONSTERS, INC.

I think Horner will ride the ABM wave to victory.

MUSIC (SONG)
KATE & LEOPOLD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MONSTERS, INC.
PEARL HARBOR
*VANILLA SKY

Don't you think the Acdemy will wanna give an Oscar to a Beatle? I know I think they do.

FILM EDITING
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
BLACK HAWK DOWN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MEMENTO
*MOULIN ROUGE

MR and BHD won the Editor's Guild. So I'd say it's between those 2 films...on the strength of it's Best Picture nomination MR wins.

ART DIRECTION
AMÉLIE
GOSFORD PARK
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
*MOULIN ROUGE

MR won the guild award, thats what I'm basing this choice on. ;)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
AMÉLIE
BLACK HAWK DOWN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
*THE MAN WHO WASN'T THERE
MOULIN ROUGE

Deakins has won EVERYTHING this year. I can't imagine the Academy will ignore him.

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AFFAIR OF THE NECKLACE
GOSFORD PARK
HARRY POTTER AND
THE SORCERER'S STONE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS:
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
*MOULIN ROUGE

Another MR victory.

Totals
A Beautiful Mind - 5
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - 4
Moulin Rouge - 3
Training Day - 1
Gosford Park - 1
Monster's Ball - 1
The Man Who Wasn't There - 1
Shrek - 1
Amelie - 1
Pearl Harbor - 1
Vanilla Sky - 1

[ReturnOfTheCB]

Funny...I didn't even really notice the music in ABM...I did notice Crowe's accent was horrible at times....I think that's one of the biggest factors I rate FOTR above it (I loved both)...and I still had a hard time believing Crowe as a genius :D